Why some people have all the luck ...............

Friends,
I have been through this article from other site.I remember Haresh Soneji is a good writer and have read him in India.He writes something to think about.
I liked this article and analysis and hence I am pasting it here for all to read and also give views .......
Thanks,
Rajeev


Why some people have all the luck

I set out to examine luck, 10 years ago. Why are some people always in the right place at the right time, while others consistently experience ill fortune? I placed advertisements in national newspapers asking for people who felt consistently lucky or unlucky to contact me.
Hundreds of extraordinary men and women volunteered for my research and over the years, have been interviewed by me. I have monitored their lives and had them take part in experiments. The results reveal that although these people have almost no insight into the causes of their luck, their thoughts and behaviour are responsible for much of their good and bad fortune. Take the case of seemingly chance opportunities. Lucky people consistently encounter such opportunities, whereas unlucky people do not.
I carried out a simple experiment to discover whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot such opportunities. I gave both lucky and unlucky people a newspaper, and asked them to look through it and
tell me how many photographs were inside. I had secretly placed a large message halfway through the newspaper saying: 'Tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $50'.
This message took up half of the page and was written in type that was more than two inches high. It was staring everyone straight in the face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it and the lucky people tended to spot it.
Unlucky people are generally more tense than lucky people, and this anxiety disrupts their ability to notice the unexpected.
As a result, they miss opportunities because they are too focused on looking for something else. They go to parties intent on finding their perfect partner and so miss opportunities to make good friends. They look through newspapers determined to find certain types of job advertisements and miss other types of jobs.
Lucky people are more relaxed and open, and therefore see what is there rather than just what they are looking for. My research eventually revealed that lucky people generate good fortune via four principles.
1)They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities,
2)make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition,
3)create self-fulfilling prophesies via positive expectations, and
4)adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good.
I wondered towards the end of the work, whether these principles could be used to create good luck. I asked a group of volunteers to spend a month carrying out exercises designed to help them think and behave like a lucky person. Dramatic results! These exercises helped them spot chance opportunities, listen to their intuition, expect to be lucky, and be more resilient to bad luck. One month later, the volunteers returned and described what had happened. The results were dramatic: 80 per cent of people were now happier, more satisfied with their lives and, perhaps most important of all, luckier.
The lucky people had become even luckier and the unlucky had become lucky. Finally, i had found the elusive 'luck factor'. Here are four top tips for becoming lucky:
1) Listen to your gut instincts ^ they are normally right.
2) Be open to new experiences and breaking your normal routine.
3) Spend a few moments each day remembering things that went well.
4) Visualise yourself being lucky before an important meeting or telephone call.
Have a Lucky day and work for it.
The happiest people in the world are not those who have no problems, but those who learn to live with things that are less than perfect.
The author of `The Luck Factor' teaches at the University of Hertfordshire.
-- Best Regards, Haresh Soneji
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END PIECE - CRY PLEDGE "Before anything else, I'm an Indian. And so is this little child. The rights I enjoy as a citizen of this free country are hers too. She has a right to be free. She has a right to be happy. But I'm going to fight for her because she has the right to be a child. I'm going to fight for her every single day, every single moment. With my skills. With my resources. With my heart. I'm going to fight for her because I can. And she can't."

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My Comments:
I would only add here that "Anger takes away the clarity of thought.Never anger let take charge of you."
Clarity of thoughts is very very important for being successful......Try to think when you are angry.....

An Islam columnist on Jews - By: Dr Farrukh Saleem.............

There are only 14 million Jews in the world; seven million in the Americas, five million in Asia, two million in Europe and 100,000 in Africa.. For every single Jew in the world there are 100 Muslims. Yet, Jews are more than a hundred times more powerful than all the Muslims put together. Ever wondered why?
Jesus of Nazareth was Jewish. Albert Einstein, the most influential scientist of all time and TIME magazine's 'Person of the Century', was a Jew. Sigmund Freud -- id, ego, superego -- the father of psychoanalysis was a Jew. So were Karl Marx, Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman.

Here are a few other Jews whose intellectual output has enriched the whole humanity:

Benjamin Rubin gave humanity the vaccinating needle.

Jonas Salk developed the first polio vaccine.

AlBert Sabin developed the improved live polio vaccine.

Gertrude Elion gave us a leukemia fighting drug.

Baruch Blumberg developed the vaccination for Hepatitis B.

Paul Ehrlich discovered a treatment for syphilis (a sexually transmitted disease).

Elie Metchnikoff won a Nobel Prize in infectious diseases.

Bernard Katz won a Nobel Prize in neuromuscular transmission.

Andrew Schally won a Nobel in endocrinology (disorders of the endocrine system; diabetes, hyperthyroidism).

Aaron Beck founded Cognitive Therapy (psychotherapy to treat mental disorders, depression and phobias).

Gregory Pincus developed the first oral contraceptive pill..

George Wald won a Nobel for furthering our understanding of the human eye.

Stanley Cohen won a Nobel in embryology (study of embryos and their development).

Willem Kolff came up with the kidney dialysis machine.. Over the past 105 years, 14 million Jews have won 15-dozen Nobel. Prizes while only three Nobel Prizes have been won by 1.4 billion Muslims (other than Peace Prizes).

Why are Jews so powerful?

Stanley Mezor invented the first micro-processing chip.

Leo Szilard developed the first nuclear chain reactor;

Peter Schultz, optical fibre cable;

Charles Adler, traffic lights;

Benno Strauss, Stainless steel;

Isador Kisee, sound movies;

Emile Berliner, telephone microphone;

Charles Ginsburg, videotape recorder.

Famous financiers in the business world who belong to Jewish faith include Ralph Lauren (Polo), Levis Strauss (Levi's Jeans), Howard Schultz (Starbuck's), Sergey Brin (Google), Michael Dell (Dell Computers), Larry Ellison (Oracle), Donna Karan (DKNY), Irv Robbins (Baskins & Robbins) and Bill Rosenberg (Dunkin Donuts).

Richard Levin, President of Yale University, is a Jew. So are Henry Kissinger (American secretary of state), Alan Greenspan (Fed chairman under Reagan, Bush, Clinton and Bush), Joseph Lieberman, Madeleine Albright (American secretary of state), Casper Weinberger (American secretary of defense), Maxim Litvinov ( USSR foreign Minister), David Marshal ( Singapore 's first chief minister), Issac Isaacs (governor-general of Australia ), Benjamin Disraeli (British statesman and author), Yevgeny Primakov (Russian PM), Barry Goldwater, Jorge Sampaio (president of Portugal ), John Deutsch (CIA director), Herb Gray (Canadian deputy PM), Pierre Mendes (French PM), Michael Howard (British home secretary), Bruno Kreisky (chancellor of Austria) and Robert Rubin (American secretary of treasury).

In the media, famous Jews include Wolf Blitzer (CNN), Barbara Walters (ABC News), Eugene Meyer (Washington Post), Henry Grunwald (editor-in-chief Time), Katherine Graham (publisher of The Washington Post), Joseph Lelyyeld (Executive editor, The New York Times), and Max Frankel (New York Times).

Can you name the most beneficent philanthropist in the history of the world? The name is George Soros, a Jew, who has so far donated a colossal $4 billion most of which has gone as aid to scientists and universities around the world. Second to George Soros is Walter Annenberg, another Jew, who has built a hundred libraries by donating an estimated $2 billion.

At the Olympics, Mark Spitz set a record of sorts by wining seven gold medals. Lenny Krayzelburg is a three-time Olympic gold medalist. Spitz, Krayzelburg and Boris Becker are all Jewish.

Did you know that Harrison Ford, George Burns, Tony Curtis, Charles Bronson, Sandra Bullock, Billy Crystal, Woody Allen, Paul Newman, Peter Sellers, Dustin Hoffman, Michael Douglas, Ben Kingsley, Kirk Douglas, Goldie Hawn, Cary Grant, William Shatner, Jerry Lewis and Peter Falk are all Jewish?

As a matter of fact, Hollywood itself was founded by a Jew. Among directors and producers, Steven Spielberg, Mel Brooks, Oliver Stone, Aaron Spelling (Beverly Hills 90210), Neil Simon (The Odd Couple), Andrew Vaina (Rambo 1/2/3), Michael Man (Starsky and Hutch), Milos Forman (One flew over the Cuckoo's Nest), Douglas Fairbanks (The thief of Baghdad ) and Ivan Reitman (Ghostbusters) are all Jewish..

To be certain, Washington is the capital that matters and in Washington the lobby that matters is The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC.

Washington knows that if PM Ehud Olmert were to discover that the earth is flat, AIPAC will make the 109th Congress pass a resolution congratulating Olmert on his discovery.

William James Sidis, with an IQ of 250-300, is the brightest human who ever existed. Guess what faith did he belong to?

So, why are Jews so powerful? Answer: Education.

Why are Muslims so powerless? There are an estimated 1,476,233,470 Muslims on the face of the planet: one billion in Asia, 400 million in Africa, 44 million in Europe and six million in the Americas .. Every fifth human being is a Muslim; for every single Hindu there are two Muslims, for every Buddhist there are two Muslims and for every Jew there are one hundred Muslims.

Ever wondered why Muslims are so powerless?

Here is why: There are 57 member-countries of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC), and all of them put together have around 500 universities; one university for every three million Muslims. The United States has 5,758 universities and India has 8,407. In 2004, Shanghai Jiao Tong University compiled an 'Academic Ranking of World Universities' , and intriguingly, not one university from Muslim-majority states was in the top-500.

As per data collected by the UNDP, literacy in the Christian world stands at nearly 90 per cent and 15 Christian-majority states have a literacy rate of 100 per cent. A Muslim-majority state, as a sharp contrast, has an average literacy rate of around 40 per cent and there is no Muslim-majority state with a literacy rate of 100 percent. Some 98 per cent of the 'literates' in the Christian world had completed primary school, while less than 50 per cent of the 'literates' in the Muslim world did the same.

Around 40 per cent of the 'literates' in the Christian world attended university while no more than two per cent of the 'literates' in the Muslim world did the same.

Muslim-majority countries have 230 scientists per one million Muslims. The US has 4,000 scientists per million and Japan has 5,000 per million. In the entire Arab world, the total number of full-time researchers is 35,000 and there are only 50 technicians per one million Arabs (in the Christian world there are up to 1,000 technicians per one million). Furthermore, the Muslim world spends 0.2 per cent of its GDP on research and development, while the Christian world spends around five per cent of its GDP.

Conclusion:The Muslim world lacks the capacity to produce knowledge.

Daily newspapers per 1,000 people and number of book titles per million are two indicators of whether knowledge is being diffused in a society. In Pakistan , there are 23 daily newspapers per 1,000 Pakistanis while the same ratio in Singapore is 360. In the UK , the number of book titles per million stands at 2,000 while the same in Egypt is 20.

Conclusion: The Muslim world is failing to diffuse knowledge.

Exports of high technology products as a percentage of total exports are an important indicator of knowledge application. Pakistan 's export of high technology products as a percentage of total exports stands at one per cent. The same for Saudi Arabia is 0.3 per cent; Kuwait , Morocco , and Algeria are all at 0.3 per cent while Singapore is at 58 per cent.

Conclusion: The Muslim world is failing to apply knowledge.

Why are Muslims powerless? Because we aren't producing knowledge.

Why are Muslims powerless? Because we aren't diffusing knowledge.

Why are Muslims powerless? Because we aren't applying knowledge.

And, the future belongs to knowledge-based societies. Interestingly, the combined annual GDP of 57 OIC-countries is under $2 trillion. America, just by herself, produces goods and services worth $12 trillion; China $8 trillion, Japan $3.8 trillion and Germany $2.4 trillion (purchasing power parity basis).

Oil rich Saudi Arabia , UAE, Kuwait and Qatar collectively produce goods and services (mostly oil) worth $500 billion; Spain alone produces goods and services worth over $1 trillion, Catholic Poland $489 billion and Buddhist Thailand $545 billion. (Muslim GDP as a percentage of world GDP is fast declining).

So, why are Muslims so powerless? Answer: Lack of education.

All we do is shout to Allah the whole day and blame everyone else for our multiple failures .

L&T increase stake from 4% to 12%...in Satyam

Friends,
I wrote about Satyam and that it is a great buy.
One of the reader name Vasanthy asked about what price it should be bought.
I gave her a detail answer and how I am coming to the conlcusion, why it is a great buy.But I am not seeing any feedback from her whether she read my comments or whether she bought or she just lost the chance.
My blog is like a friendly platform.One can write me and ask me if I do not reply and readers use to write me if they use to differ.Sometimes I do not use to get time and hence may not reply hence I request you all that do repeat your query and I will definately try to reply it.
But readers feedback is very important.If someone ask something and I reply to them and they don't revert back then I feel that the query was just a casual query and not a serious one.Someone just asked for the sake of asking.......
I wrote in that reply to Vasanthy that Mcap is so less that when we compare it with Infy, Wipro and TCS that Satyam makes a good buy.
I have also written many times that everyone should read my replies to anyone.One will always find something to read.....I hope everyone visiting my blog must be doing that.
Now that L&T has increased the stake from 4% to 12% and they bought arond 1.18 cr share at one go on 23 rd while averaging it at rs 35 but seems that they wants to come on to have a sit in the Satyam Board and what a chance God has given to Mr.Anilbhai Naik! and he seems to be the right guy to have Satyam.
When I wrote in comments it was 20 and now it is 38!Wow great run.
I categorically wrote here that Satyam can't be Zero as Mr.Shankar Sharma of First Global has predicted.Market never act on anyone whims.The day Bulls started dreaming that market is behaving as per we say ,we saw the Crash and now Bears are also thinking in same way.They feels that market is and now should react as we think and that means the end of Bear market.
I don't say that the bear market has ended and bull market has started as there will be consilidation inbetween that will take place.We can see some downside but seems that 7600 is the bottom and under no circumstances it should be broken.This may happen and may not happen.This is all my assumptions.
But as I have written here in past, I am still seeing a turnaround by the end of June qr .
I would like everyone to keep a tab on Crude prices.The day it goes over $60 then I think we should think that the demand has increased and that world economy is coming back to normal.
And hence this is also the best time to buy stocks like Selan Exploration, Alpha Geo, Aban LLyod,ShivVani Uni,Jindal Drilling , Dolphin Offshore,HOEC,etc.........
Oil is going to be the main wealth creator in future as the Oil wells are getting empty and world needs to find newer places where Oil can be obtained and hence the Seismic data co,Drilling co,Exploration co are bound to make good business and bound to earn great returns.....

Satyam Saga.....there was no less margin...Raju diverted funds to Maytas and others cos.....

Ramalinga Raju admits to diverting Satyam money
21 Jan 2009, 1724 hrs IST, IANS

Text:
HYDERABAD: Disgraced founder and former chairman of Satyam Computer Services B. Ramalinga Raju has confessed that he diverted funds of the IT
company to the two real estate firms promoted by his family, state police sources said here on Wednesday. Raju, who was grilled Wednesday for the fourth day by officials of Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of Andhra Pradesh police, also reportedly admitted using the Satyam money to buy prime land in and around Hyderabad.
CID sources said Raju told interrogators funds were diverted during the past four to five years. This means Raju's Jan 7 statement that he inflated company accounts was a red herring. While resigning as company chairman, Raju had admitted to a Rs.70 billion (Rs.7,000 crore/$1.43 billion) accounting fraud, saying the company had cooked its books over several years resulting in inflated (non-existent) cash and bank balances. He reiterated this during CID interrogation soon after his arrest January 9.
But investigations have now revealed that a big chunk of this money existed but was diverted to other firms. CID, which took Raju, his brother and former managing director B. Rama Raju and former chief financial officer Vadlamani Srinivas in custody for four days following a court order, grilled the former Satyam boss on the basis of his confession. After prolonged interrogation, Raju finally admitted to diverting Satyam funds to his family firms — Maytas Properties and Maytas Infra. He told CID sleuths that this was going on since 2004. Raju not only diverted funds out of Satyam but is also believed to have misled company auditors PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) by submitting fake bank documents. CID and some regulatory agencies have already seized some documents from PwC. Raju also reportedly swindled money through 6,000 fake salary accounts for last few years. Sources said he had created these accounts in four banks to divert the funds from fixed deposits. Some of these funds were flowed through his accounts in foreign banks. The company's claims that it had 53,000 employees came under scrutiny after Raju's January 7 confession. The government-appointed board is also trying to ascertain these figures. With Raju confessing to diversion of funds, the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) and Registrar of Companies (RoC) are now trying to trace a Mauritius-based company used for channelising the money to Maytas. The central government has already asked SFIO to extend the ambit of investigations of Satyam fraud to cover both Maytas Properties and Maytas Infra. A team of SFIO is checking the accounts and records of the two firms. However, both the firms have denied that they received any funds from Satyam.

Morgan Stanley to store crude at sea ....hinting of things to come...?

Morgan Stanley to store crude at sea
Alaric Nightingale LONDON


MORGAN Stanley hired a supertanker to store crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico, joining Citigroup Inc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc in trying to profit from higher prices later in the year, two shipbrokers said. The ship is the Argenta, capable of carrying more than 2 million barrels, Paris-based Barry Rogliano Salles and Athens-based Optima Shipbrokers said in reports. Morgan Stanley officials in London didn’t immediately reply to three phone messages seeking comment. Banks and c o m m o d i t y traders are seeking new ways to make money after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell by the most since 1937 last year and crude oil prices dropped more than $100 a barrel from their peak. Companies including Koch Industries Inc and BP Plc are hoarding enough crude at sea to supply the world for almost a day. “It’s a window of opportunity that won’t last long,” Gareth Lewis-Davies, a London-based energy analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Group, said by phone. There may only be four or five banks with the expertise to make the trade, he said. Frontline Ltd, the world’s biggest owner of supertankers, said January 14 about 80 million barrels of crude oil are being stored in tankers, the most in 20 years. A purchaser could buy oil now, keep it for months at sea and fetch better prices by selling futures that are higher than the spot price. The so-called contango pricing structure in oil has been caused by excess supply as demand slows and speculation that output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce the glut later this year. The easiest types of oil to buy for the trade are likely to be either West Texas Intermediate or the North Sea grades Brent, Forties, Oseberg or Ekofisk. That’s because they are the ones used to settle the mosttraded futures contracts. Other oils, such as those from the Middle East and Africa, are usually bought and sold at prices related to the main European and U.S. grades. Because those prices fluctuate, it means traders assume an extra risk by hoarding them. Phibro LLC, Citigroup’s commodities trading unit, has the 1 million-barrel carrier Ice Transporter stationed off north Scotland and also hired the supertanker Ashna to store. Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, booked two supertankers. — Bloomberg

Comments:
Well, While going through the ET today I read this news and was thinking what is written is true then it is obvious that the demand in Oil is going to get increased in later part of the year and that means USA economy should be showing some good nos in second half of this year .
Now if the Oil demand increases once again it also says that the comsumption has increased and that means world economy is coming back to normal.
Crude prices are at where they were in 2003 and so is inflation.While thinking what has happened in 6 months that crude has gone down from a high of $147 to $33 and what happened suddenly to the financial sector that all banks and financial insti like CITI, Lehman, Bear Stern,Merill Lynch ,BOA,Freedie Mae and Freedie Mac the most two trusted mortagage entity of US government went down.
How can such things happens?Is it a ploy to swallow money of overseas countries invested in big financial US co written above?
How come the Oil demand come so less that the prices fall to $33?Is that possible?
Well, I am in USA since last Feb and have started seeing the first debacle that happened of Bear Stern...and then it is a history.....as each and every big financial house got broked.
I am seeing no problem whatsoever with people here.They are just fine and there is no panic.Cars are running on the road as usual .They are just seen when I landed here.And that is the trick .The Gas prices has come down so much as low as $1.47 /gl which was $4.69/gl just 4-5 months back that people do not feel the pinch for driving a car for whatever reason they need to drive.I don't think any country hass decreased the prices of Gas/petrol prices as much as USA can/has done and that is where the trick is.The prices get decreased with the crude prices going down which do not happen with rest of the world.
I would like to know from my blog readers if any country use to decrease the Petrol/gas prices as much as USA do....
But looking at the above news it seems that second half we are going to see a turnaround in US ecocnomy.US economy is worth 25% of world GDP and if US economy makes a good turn around then we can see crude coming back to $60-70 by end of the year or early next year.
I again rewrite that I may prove wrong in all my assumptions as they are after all guessings and one can go totally wrong.

One Offtopic talk:
Regarding Kashmir, when Kashmir is an integral part of India and while our army is there at the border then why the hell we need to talk with Pakistan for Kashmir.There is no issue for Kashmir if only there can be talk on Kashmir then it should be only of Pakistan occupied Kashmir(POK) which was taken away by Pakistan in 1965.I do not know how that happened and how that much part is with Pakistan but that is rediculous that some part of Kashmir is with pakistan and we called as POK as they are supposed to be not the owner.The Kashmir that is under Indiasovernity why we need to talk about that with Pakistan?I don't understand the whole issue?If Kashmir is with Pakistan then why the hell Indian army is there?And if Kashmir is with India then why the hell we need to talk with Pakistan?
Can any politician answer me this question?

Full text of Raju's letter to the Satyam Board................

I have read somewhere this Letter but forget the site name.Authencity is unknown but reading it seems good and hence I am pasting it here.

From B. Ramalinga RajuChairman,


Satyam Computer Servcies Ltd

Dear Board Members,
It is with deep regret, and tremendous burden that I am carrying on my conscience, that I would like to bring the following facts to your notice:

1. The balance sheet carries as of September 30, 2008.

a) Inflated (non-existent) cash and bank balance of Rs 5,040 crore (as against Rs 5361 crore reflected in the books).

b) An accrued interest of Rs 376 crore which is non-existent.

c) An understated liability of Rs 1,230 crore on account of funds arranged by me.

d) An over stated debtor position of Rs 490 crore (as against Rs 2651 reflected in the books)

2. For the September quarter (Q2) we reported a revenue of Rs 2,700 crore and an operating margin of Rs 649 crore (24 per cent of revenues) as against the actual revenues of Rs 2,112 crore and an actual operating margin of Rs 61 crore (3 per cent of revenue). This has resulted in artificial cash and bank balances going up by Rs 588 crore in Q2 alone.

The gap in the balance sheet has arisen purely on account of inflated profits over a period of last several years (limited only to Satyam standalone, books of subsidiaries reflecting true performance). What started as a marginal gap between actual operating profit and the one reflected in the books of accounts continued to grow over the years. It has attained unmanageable proportions as the size of the company operations grew significantly (annualized revenue run rate of Rs 11,276 crore in the September quarter, 2008 and official reserves of Rs 8.392 crore). The differential in the real profits and the one reflected in the books was further accentuated by the fact that the company had to carry additional resources and assets to justify higher level of operations thereby significantly increasing the costs.

Every attempt made to eliminate the gap failed. As the promoters held a small percentage of equity, the concern was the poor performance would result in a takeover, thereby exposing the gap. It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten.

The aborted Maytas acquisition deal was the last attempt to fill the fictitious assets with real ones. Maytas investors were convinced that this is a good divestment opportunity and a strategic fit. Once Satyams problem was solved, it was hoped that Maytas payments can be delayed. But that was not to be. What followed in the last several days is common knowledge.

I would like the board to know:

1. That neither myself, not the Managing Director(including our spouses) sold any shares in the last eight years-excepting for a small proportion declared and sold for philanthropic purposes.

2. That in the last two years a net amount of Rs 1,230 crore was arranged to Satyam (not reflected in the books of Satyam) to keep the operations going by resorting to pledging all the promoter shares and raising funds from know sources by giving all kinds of assurances (Statement enclosed, only to the members of the board). Significant dividend payments, acquisitions, capital expenditure to provide for growth did not help matters. Every attempt was made to keep the wheel moving and to ensure prompt payment of salaries to the associates. The last straw was the selling of most of the pledged share by the lenders on account of margin triggers.

3. That neither me, nor the Managing Director took even one rupee/dollar from the company and have not benefited in financial terms on account of the inflated results.

4. None of the board members, past or present, had any knowledge of the situation in which the company is placed. Even business leaders and senior executives in the company, such as Ram Mynampati, Subu D T R Anand, Kesab Panda, Virender Agarwal, A S Murthy, Hari T, S V Krishnan, Vijay Prasad, Manish Mehta, Murali V, Sriram Papani, Kiran Kavale, Joe Lagioia. Ravindra Penu Metsa, Jayaraman and Prabhakar Gupta are unaware of the real situation as against the books of accounts. None of my or managing directors immediate or extended family members has any ideas about these issues.


Having put the facts before you, I leave it to the wisdom of the board to take the matters forward. However, I am also taking the liberty to recommend the following steps:

1) A task force has been formed in the last few days to address the situation arising out of the failed Maytas acquisition attempt. This consists of some of the most accomplished leaders of Satyam: Subu D, T R Anand, Keshab Panda and Virender Aggarwal, representing business functions, and A.S.Murthy, Hari T and Murali V representing support functions. I suggest that Ram Mynampati be made the Chairman of this task force to immediately address some of the operational matters on hand. Ram can also act as an interim CEO reporting to the board.

2) Merrill Lynch can be entrusted with the task of quickly exploring some merger opportunities.

3) You may have a restatement of accounts prepared by auditors in light of the facts that I have placed before you.

I have promoted and have been associated with Satyam for well over twenty years now. I have seen it grow from few people to 53,000 people, with 185 Fortune 500 companies as customers and operations in 66 countries. Satyam has an excellent leadership and competency base at all levels. I sincerely apologize to all Satyamites and stakeholders who have made Satyam a special organization, for the current situation. I am confident they will stand by the company in this hour of crisis.

In light of the above, I fervently appeal to the board to hold together to take some important steps. Mt T R Prasad is well placed to mobalize support from the government at this crucial time. With the hope that members of the Task Force and the financila advisor, Merrill Lynch (now Bank of America) will stand by the company at this crucial hour, I am marking copies of this statement to them as well.

Under the circumustances, I am tendering my resignation as the chairman of Satyam and shall continue in this position only till such time the current board is expanded. My contribution is just to ensure enhancement of the board over the next several days or as early as possible.

I am now prepared to subject myself to the laws of the land and fact the consequences thereof.(B. Ramalinga Raju)Copied marked to:1) SEBI Chairman2) Stock Exchanges



My Comments:
Reading the text what I findout is ,seems that ,maybe there can be inflated cash shown and other credits in BS .Maybe the Revenue is inflated but reading it seems like that it is inflated by just around 10% and with 185 ,Fortune 500 ,clients then we can't doubt about the work Satyam was giving. That was going for past decade and none of the clients ever cancelled the orders or terminated them abruptly.That speaks for Satyam work and service.....There should be some Value for the goodwill they have created while completing the job.
Maybe the margin was very less just at 3% and hence not enough for 53000 employees to get paid.Raju pledge his shares to pay for the employees.But the orders and clients were not fake and hence I feel that Satyam can be a very very good takeover by L&T or by Government.Deepak Parekh given the leadership is hinting what I was writing.Government may takeover this no 4 Software export co.........
But I think not all is lost for Satyam as our beloved Bear Mr Shankar Sharma spoke out that Satyam can be Zero.I feel that with good corporate governance Satyam can be brought back ontrack........and that too quicker then anyone can imagine.
Satyam case is not like Lehman br or Bear Stern or Citi or Merill Lych.It has clients and they have not lost money.The margins were poor.Why they were poor needs to be analysed.Either they erred in recruiting more employees then wanted as written by Bhargav and they needs to be trimed down so Satyam can come back to normal and try to increase the margins and do whatever is needed....But am sure this is not a scandal.Something was going wrong somewhere which Raju was not also able to understand.

Rajeev

Sataym Saga............

Friends,
I have written very small post on Satyam when asked for my comments and many must have frustrated while reading it that it was too small .But let me tell you that I didn't go full flow about how market will react.
But when I am seeing that market has not showed a great concern on next day and still remained above 9k it shows that market has discounted this bad news and now we need to see how market reacts next week.But when there is no big reaction the very next day it means that we should do well next week as well.
Ofcourse , the results of Dec qr which are due can take toll but Infy moving up shows that market has taken satyam news as an isolated misgovernance and has not taken it in totality for the whole sector.
I hope that that should be the case and we see a stabilization after Satyam issue comes to the fore.

Friends,
I have been asked to comment on Satyam Issue.
Well here is what I think.
The debacle has done more bad to Satyam itself.The stocks may still fall.I am also learning that L&T subsidiary has invested in Satyam and hence L&T also may get battered today or next week as news gets out.
I donno know but how FII's shows the courage to critisize Indian Cos when they have messed up the whole American system.
I just got a mail showing CLSA that how much Indian cos will get affected due to the Auditers who are also auditing other cos.Instead of looking at their house which is burning terribly they comes here to give expert view.
The Auditers is none other then a foriegn co named Pricewater Cooper!
They have given some 15 stocks list which are said to be Audited by Pricewater Cooper house!Is this standard of USA co.This is how they audited?
I donno but CLSA itself must be headdrown in this mess or in USA.No one is knowing what is with CLSA.Hence howmuch to rely on CLSA report or any forieng Insti is a question.
But one thing is clear and that is, even A gr cos are no good when we use to questions the management of Cash gr cos.This vindicates my view that there is nothing like good or bad management.It all depends on how cos pans out.
Well, reagarding market I think there can be some more down side but by next week we should be back to normal.This is my thinking and I may prove wrong.......

Friends,
I wrote last time that I would be giving a list which can fetch great returns in couple of years.
I am writing it now because I feel if I willbe late in writing then it can be late.
Here is the list which almost includes stocks which I have discussed earlier.Some stocks may not be included but then I may not remember all and it may be like it becomes so long.....I am trying to make as much exhaustive as possible....
Name CMP
1)XL Tele - 58
2)Gremach Infra - 30
3)Sujana Towers -24
4)India Glycols -72
5)Vishnu Chem -26
6)Nagpur Power -24
7)Genus Overseas -124
8)Kirlos Ferro -16
9)Jayaswal Neco -13
10)Jyoti Ltd -37
11)SKS Logistic -15
12)Emmson Int -74
13)Transgene Bio -24
14)Twilitika Pharma -38
15)PSL Ltd -92
16)Madhucon Pro -100
17)Patel Eng -190
18)Ahluwalia Const -34
19)Aptech Ltd -101
20)MRO Tek -33
21)Navin Flourine -138
22)KLG Systel -109
23)JaiHind Project -45
24)Sarda Energy -75
25)Goldstone Infra -20
26)Selan Explo -146
27)Sahyadri Ind -26
28)Ramsarup Ind -35
29)Satvahan Ispat -24
30)Dolphin Offshore-176

The list is long I told you and still go longer as the valuations have come down so much that everything seems to be a value buy.
I may prove wrong in my view and stocks selections and hence I urge all readers to do due diligence and then invest.But remember what I wrote last time.Have a Capital Market magazine with you and try to see these stocks in Score board....it's BV,EPS,Sales,Promoters stake etc etc...this will give you confidence....
Our market ended 300 points up and closed above 10k.The earning seasons starts now and need to see how it pans out.Most probably the results are going to be disappointment and that is the general market consesus and just a better then expected result in any individual stocks, can act as a catalyst to that perticular stock.Hence be on alert.Keep opening the bse site everyday and keep seeing the results.Read ET and BS and see how the results are coming.
As I have written most probably after June qr the results will start showing good signs and hence this maybe the last quater that we may see valuation so down.

Good Sign?

Steel offtake rises 30-40% on higher demand

Ambarish Mukherjee

New Delhi, Jan. 3 Through the grey of Delhis foggy skies a little ray of hope appears to be shining on one of Asias largest steel markets the Loha Mandi in Naraina. Traders are looking much happier now than they were during Diwali because offtake has increased by 30-40 per cent since mid-November.
They attribute it to a significant and sudden rise in demand for long structural products, which has gone up by around 30-40 per cent. But prices have come down from an average of Rs 48,000-49,000 a tonne in August to around Rs 32,000-33,000 a tonne now.
Demand for flat steel, too, is growing but at a lower pace of 5-10 per cent, traders said.
The Naraina Loha Mandi houses around 1,000 shops that sell every possible steel product, from heavy plates to the thinnest wires.
According to the traders, the pattern of growth is different for the long and flat products. For long products the growth is from new demand, while for flat items it is a combination of new demand and import replacement after the Government put HR steel on the restricted list of items for import on November 21 last year.
A trader in long products, Mr Gurucharan Arora, said, Sales have picked up in the past two months and now reaching normal levels. Explaining the reason, he said, The builders who had put their projects on hold have started buying.
Officials in the countrys largest steel manufacturing company Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) also agree. Demand for long products has increased by around 15 per cent in the last few weeks, mainly on Government buying. If things continue the same way, the market may stabilise by January end or February, SAIL sources said.
There are still many uncertainties which is holding back latent demand, but the import duty on construction steel imposed on January 2 will increase demand further, he said.

READY STOCKS

However, despite sales picking up traders are cautious. The President, Naraina Iron & Steel Merchants Welfare Association, Mr Raj Kumar Jain, said, Traders are avoiding holding ready stocks and are mostly lifting on transaction basis. Though demand is picking up, many traders have strong liquidity problems. Stocks are down by 50-60 per cent compared to the peak levels in July/August 2008.

REAL VOLUMES

Interestingly, however, though the actual physical amount of steel sold is increasing, it is not reflected in the official volume figures because the steel market is down.
According to Mr Jain, this is because when the market is up, the same stock changes hand several times before reaching the consumer with three to four people making money out of the entire chain of transactions. At each stage it gets recorded as sales and the sum goes up, he explained. But in the present scenario, middlemen have fled the market and only the actual users are buying. These are real volumes, he said.

The likely beneficiaries of the second stimulus package .......

The likely beneficiaries of the second stimulus package

Chennai, Jan. 3 If the Cenvat concession and interest rate cuts of the first stimulus aimed at trimming costs for India Inc as a whole, the second one singles out select sectors for its munificence.
It promises lower borrowing costs for large infrastructure companies through the ECB route and paves the way for financial closure of stalled projects. It also offers incentives for commercial vehicle makers and the logistics sector, while raising the barriers of protection for cement makers. Here is a listing of possible beneficiaries.

Freeing up funds

For the infrastructure sector, moves such as the removal of the ECB ceiling, aggressive rate cuts and greater borrowing powers to IIFCL may infuse liquidity and temper the cost to borrowing. It may also speed up financial closure for infrastructure projects that are struggling to achieve financial closure. Players such as Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Construction and Maytas Infrastructures, key bidders in road projects, may be the possible beneficiaries.

While the CRR cut will lower the cost of funds for banks, the package also takes care to open up additional avenues for fund-raising by NBFCs. NBFCs engaged in infrastructure funding such as IDFC, REC and Power Finance Corporation, as also those that lend to the transport sector, may be able to obtain easier access to funds.

On the real estate front, the most significant incentive is the green signal given to realty developers to raise ECBs for developing integrated townships; a ban on raising funds for such townships was imposed in May 2007. DLF, Ansal Properties & Infrastructure and Parsvnath Developers that have plans in this direction may reap the benefits of this move.

Spillover for logistics

The focus on funding for road and port projects may also have spillover gains for the logistics sector, which has been grappling with dwindling volumes at the ports. Potential beneficiaries would be companies in the container rail space such as Container Corporation of India and Gateway Distriparks, besides players such as Allcargo Global, Sical Logistics and Mundra Port and SEZ. The sector may benefit from the easing of pre-shipment and post-shipment credit norms. The EXIM Bank has obtained a Rs 5000-crore line of credit from the RBI to provide credit to domestic exporters at competitive rates.

Inventory relief for CVs


Commercial vehicle makers have been dogged by steadily sliding sales and an inventory pile-up in recent months. The latest stimulus package tries to address this by offering an accelerated depreciation of 50 per cent for commercial vehicles purchased up to March 31, 2009. While availability of financing for purchases will hold the key to actually reviving vehicle demand, the accelerated depreciation benefits may push buyers to expedite purchase decisions.

This could help clear inventories for CV makers such as Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors and Escorts. The financing problem has been addressed by asking PSU banks to provide a line of credit to NBFCs (such as Sundaram Finance and Shriram Finance) for the purchase of commercial vehicles.
The Government has raised the barriers of protection for the domestic cement industry and allowed greater pricing power, by re-imposing countervailing duty (CVD) and Special CVD on cement imports.
Though the volume of imports has not been very large after the scrapping of import duty last year, cement players in the surplus northern region have been threatened by the shipments from Pakistan. Ambuja Cements, ACC, Shree Cement and JK Lakshmi Cement may be possible beneficiaries from this move.

Friends,
I think the time has come to buy stocks in staggered manner.I am seeing almost all the stock prices in Cash gr has come to almost 90% and hence chances of going down from there is maybe 10-15%.
Well, I am seeing the market breadth is becoming positive and that shows that some buying is coming from HNI's etc.Market breadth positive means stocks moving up are more then going down and I am marking since many days that this is happening.That is a sign of market bottoming out.Though it is early to say whether we will see the bottom of 7500 again or not because USA economy is still bleeding and what comes out there no one can say.
But I thought it is time for bargain hunting and one should buy whatever one thinks like buying.There an ocean of stocks with great fundamentals and available at throw away price and many we have discussed here.They are just available at 1/10 of high...what else one want....!
I am sure in next 2-4 months people will say that this share was available at 20 and I didn't buy and I lost the chance or this was a great co and I was knowing that this is going to run and was available at 50 and I missed it.
Friends,I have written many times here that buy even 100 shares of anystock.No one knows which one is going to give multibagger returns.So if a multibagger return is going to come then even 100 shares will do wonders.
I have often said that keep Capital Market Magazine handy.Look at the BV,EPS,sales, Macp and buy.
These are golden chances that comes in a life time.Stocks like Sujana Towers has come down from 200 to 20 with co still making an eps of over 20,Gremach Infra down from 550 to 28 which is 5% of the high and earning etc etc.....
The list is long. will write it next time but I think this is time to buy.
Try to look at stocks refering Capital Market Magazine.I have been able to find multibagger stocks from reading the scoreboard of CM and hence suggest all of you to do the same.
I may be wrong in my analysis once again and hence due prudence is neccessary to buy anything....

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala view........

Trading is against human nature


One of the worlds greatest super traders operating in one of the worlds toughest stock markets, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is as bullish on India today as he has been since 1985. Here he explains his investments approach and the influences which have shaped it.

All risk taking is associated with two human conditions, viz the greed for profits and the fear of losses. The ability to strike the right balance between fear and greed is the most vital determinant of profitable risk-taking. Human nature operates on the chance of a gain rather maximizing gains. There is lack of focus on the magnitude of gains and losses, which is why I maintain that good trading requires you to go against the basic tenets of human nature. In both trading and investing, it's important what you buy, but it's more important at what price you buy.
Even traders who use the latest technology to help them take decisions, or use sophisticated proprietarymodels developed by big investment institutions such don't really know why they have bought or sold aparticular stock. It is a combination of empirical evidence, gut feeling, other people's opinions, or sometimes it's just because he or she is feeling bullish that day. Yet when one takes a big loss; why do we continue to trade? We are programmed to learn, and we learn to avoid pain. But in trading, you have to learn to take a loss.
Good judgment comes from experience, experience comes from bad judgment. You can't teach trading, trading has to be learnt, but to some extent, I think traders are born.It's a knack. It is a rule of human nature that it is very difficult to change ourselves. The ability to adapt and change and mitigate prejudice is critical to success for someone who wants to earn a livelihood from the markets. I can be a bull and a bear, and sometimes both at the same time. I've done a 1800 turn when necessary. I used to be a bear during Harshad Mehta's time, I'm very bullish now. In the market you have to be like a chameleon, always changing your colors.
I have a passion for equities. In fact, I love trading and investing, and even if I had to pay for doing it, I would have surely done so.
Just like most children, I first wanted to be a pilot, and then dreamt of being a journalist. As a child, I was introduced to the world of stocks due to my father's hobby of investing and trading in shares. I would listen to conversations about stocks among my father's friends and the fluctuations in stock prices fascinated me.
On quizzing my dad, he advised me to link the fluctuation in prices to the news flow. I read newspaper columns on stock prices with absolute fascination, and decided early on in life that stocks and shares were going to be my calling in life.
After graduating from Sydenham College, I completed my chartered accountancy in 1984. The childhood fascination with stocks was compounded with the realization that capitalism is going to prevail in the world, and that the temples of capitalism, the capital markets, are going to be the new temples. This led me to embark upon a career in the capital markets. This was most unorthodox and unacceptable to most people, including my family. But, having a democratic father was a big help. He stressed upon me the fact that he would not support me financially in this endeavor.
At the same time he offered the security of a house in Bombay, where I could always live, and impressed upon me the fact that I was a qualified professional and that I could always make a living even if I failed in my endeavors in the markets. He also wanted me to never forget that, "My word is my bond", and to not attempt any shortcuts. My father, the person from whom I have learnt the most in life, may not have backed me financially, but he always blessed me and my endeavors, whatever they be, from the bottom of his heart. I do not think I could be anywhere near what I am today without the guidance and blessings of my parents. Despite our differences of opinion, I have always lived with my parents, as I do today. They have been my greatest source of succor and support in times good and bad.
I had a capital of just Rs 5,000. With this capital, my skills and dreams, along with the blessings and guidance of my elders, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala arrived in 1985 on the streets of the Bombay Stock Exchange with the firm conviction and belief "Hum honge kaamyah!"
One obviously cannot be a trader or investor in capital markets without capital. My brother, a practicing chartered accountant, had many rich clients; and helped me raise about Rs1.5mn from his clients. With this capital, in a short period of one year I earned nearly Rs1mn and invested the gains in 5,000 shares of Tata Power.
Those days will always be etched in my mind. My office was the pavement outside the stock exchange, my cupboard was the brief case I carried and my computer was a calculator.
The markets went through a lean period of about two to three years, during which I had no activity, no income and often wondered whether I had made the right decision. In the meanwhile I got married and it was only the fact that I lived in a joint family that allowed me to see through this trying period.
Initially, I did not trade or speculate but! soon realized that to be an investor you need big capital. And the only way I could get substantial capital was through trading income. The markets recovered and my investments in Tata Power along with the profitable trades in Sesa Goa and Telco soon brought my net worth close to Rs15mn. I now had the capital to risk and to make investments.
I will never forget the budget delivered by the finance minister, Madhu Dandvante, in 1990. All of India was bearish on equities with the lone exception of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. I think that budget was an inflexion point and quintupled my net worth. It is such pendulum shifts that create the opportunity to trade, to invest or disinvest wisely and profitably. Over the years I have learnt that not only is it critical and extremely difficult to identify such inflexion points, it is even more difficult to deal with such situations.
It also gave me confidence in my own abilities for I had held my own against some of the most influential and venerated opinion makers in equity markets. As my trading activity increased, I realized its nature as well as its importance. Trading taught me to see the world as it is rather than as one would like it to be.
Trading also gave me the money required to make investments.
In a capitalistic society, superior returns without risk taking is but a flight of fancy. Risk-takers we all are, but I think measured risk-taking in the right dose and manner is the key to performance in markets. Never forgetting my father's words, "My word is my bond"; I have always been a risk-taker( but one need to take), albeit a responsible and measured one. I have always borrowed money in these markets full of fire, but I am proud and happy to say I have an impeccable financial reputation, and have always lived up to my father's guidance on responsibility and prudence. To most people, it is a paradox that one who deals in risk continuously by trading or speculating or investing, can at the same time consider himself financially responsible and prudent. in trading, the first and the last principle is that trading is trend and price based, and not opinion based.
This requires you to square an unfavorable trade regardless of your opinion. This means that if I buy a stock at Rsl00, and then the price falls to Rs95, I take my loss and square off my trade. This is counterintuitive to most people. This is the one common quality of all successful traders. I have tried to rationalize this many a time, and am always reminded of Churchill's words, ''You have to lose many a battle to win the War". I think anybody who wants to trade should not only remember what Churchill MS said, but also what George Soros says, "It's not important whether you are right or wrong, it more important how much you lose when you are wrong and how much money you make when you are right". This requires you to square unfavorable trades, and to pyramid your profitable ones. In trading, everything else is illusion and hope, the sole reality being price. The great fortunes are made by the occurrence of the unknown, and the first portends of the unknown is price, price and only price.
Good trading requires three qualities:
1. broad idea of direction
2. knowing what and how much to risk
3. knowing when and how to take a loss
I have only traded in Indian equity markets in my life so far. But having learnt the broad principles of trading, I have the confidence that I can trade in any market and or any asset class. Today, with confidence, I am preparing myself and Rare Enterprises (my trading firm) for the day when we can trade and invest internationally. Of course, this is subject to capital account convertibility.
Lot of people quiz me, "Doesn't the volatility inherent in trading, combined with the financial implications of gains and losses impact me mentally and emotionally, or bring about a change in the quality of my life?" I always risk a miniscule portion of my wealth when I trade, and in any case, trading gains and losses do not impact my lifestyle. Sure, I would be lying if I say that it has no effect whatsoever, but then I am also reminded of Churchill's words again. I also believe that the process of earning wealth is far more exciting than actual wealth. And I believe in life that it's only those who can lose a battle with a smile, are the ones who will win the ultimate battle. To my mind, the inhibition of making a mistake or being wrong is the biggest stumbling block to progress and gain in life. I am not afraid to make a mistake in life, but it should be one that I can afford, so that I may live to make another one.
Trading also requires tremendous conviction and independence of thought. Just, as in all walks of life, discipline is the key to success in markets. I wish I had the same discipline in my personal habits as I have in markets.
All trading is trend-following and momentum-playing.
And all investing is about perceiving the future and linking it to a value, besides understanding the role of time. I have learnt that trend is my friend and never pre-empt or question trends unless the reversal becomes apparent. In investing, one should always be greedy, but be long term greedy. to many, leverage is poison. But as they say, one man's poison is another man's food. For me, disciplined and emotionless leverage have been the key to my success. We should also remember that we earn wealth in consonance with the market opportunities and our risk taking abilities, rather than with our desire to earn a measured quantum of wealth every year, regardless of market opportunities and liquidity.
Investing success requires that one does not always react to the apparent. It is not about buying the optimism and selling the pessimism. This was proved magnificently in my purchase of PSU (public sector undertaking) stocks in 2001 when the whole world was buying dud pseudo- technology stocks. Superior investment returns are not gained without pain, time, introspection and doubt. There are a certain people whose views I value, some friends with whom I discuss matters. In the early days, I learnt all great deal from Radhakishnan Damani. But the best decisions in trading and investment are essentially very lonely decisions. I have also learnt in life that regardless of whoever has advised or influenced any decision that I have made, good or bad, I am responsible for it. I take all credit and all blame.
My ten commandments for trading
1. be realistic: Make trading price dependent, not opinion dependent
2. trading is a full time profession, not a part time job. It cannot be half-hearted
3. know the rules and verify them for they many not to what you assume
4. never aspire to be the markets master. Its best to be its slave. Leverage your skills, not your capital
5. have a broad idea of direction. Remember, trend is your friend
6. dont be afraid to make a mistake. Only ensure you make one that you can afford so that you may love to make another
7. play Seen, not Blind for the market offer many an opportunity even after the cards are open
8. know what and how much risk. Assess risk
9. take a loss. The first loss is the best loss. Pyramid your profits
10. good judgment come from experience. Experience comes from bad judgments. Trading can only be learnt it cant be taught.
Ive had my fair share of doubts, and have made ,some mistakes, but you have to believe in yourself, whatever you do. Many a time, it takes time for markets to realize value. But my experience in markets have taught me that ultimately markets do what is right, and hence when I am wrong in markets I do not blame markets but blame myself. I think the first important lesson that we must learn to be successful in markets is that markets are supreme. We also have to remember that markets are ruthless and very intelligent. A market participant should always respect markets as being the ultimate arbitrators and deciders. I believe that the markets always decide rightly and correctly over a sufficient period of time.
We should never forget the words of Sir John Templeton, "Markets are like a woman, always commanding, always mysterious, always uncertain."We should hold our conviction with patience. If we do not accept the supremacy of markets, we will end up defying them and will land up being consigned to the poor-house. Believe me, this is the one quality which is most required to be successful in markets.
My ten commandments for investing
1. be an optimist: the necessary quality for investing success
2. expect a realistic return. Balance fear and greed
3. invest on broad parameters and the larger picture. Make it an act of wisdom, not intelligence
4. caveat emptor. Never forget this four letter word R-I-S-K
5. be disciplined. Have a game plan
6. be flexible for investing is always in the realms of possibilities
7. contrarian investing: not a rule, not ruled out
8. its important what you buy, its more important at what price you buy
9. have conviction, be patient. Your patience may be tested but your conviction will be rewarded
10. make exit an independent decision, not driven by profit or loss
To be successful in investing, many elements have to fall into place. But four things are critical. There has to be an attractive, addressable, external opportunity; a sustainable competitive advantage; scalability and operating leverage; and the management should be of high quality and integrity. All have to be present but they still constitute only 50% of our necessary requirement. It is important what one buys, but its more important at what price one buys. The price at which we buy is the ultimate determinant of our profit or loss. I am happy to say that a loss in investing has been a rare occurrence in my career, and the key to it is that I am an investor who focuses obsessively on value. Therefore, I may have made a mistake in buying NUT in 2001, but I still made a profit.
I am not easily convinced about an investment, but when I am convinced, I keep my opinion despite the world differing with me even if it persists over a long period of time.
Fundamental analysts are obsessed with predicting profits correctly, forgetting that we are investing in an uncertain future, and in the realms of possibilities( very important according to me). When I make an investment, I try and understand the factors that I drive profits rather than worrying about the absolute quantum of profits. The opportunity should be so compelling that we should not need to interact with anyone before seizing the opportunity.
We should invest first, investigate later.
I have also learnt that many opportunities lie in crisis.
It is very apt that the Chinese symbol for crisis is the same as that for opportunity. It was the crisis at Titan that offered one of the best investing opportunities of my life.
The determinants of the price of any stock are a simple mathematical formula:
It was apparent that when both the variables determining price viz EPS and PER gain, stock prices explode.
I learnt that EPS was specific to each company while the PER was dependent on various factors, both internal and external to the company. I should not look only at the EPS of the company but also the quality of the EPS. The quality depends mainly on three factors:
1 accounting practices
2 cash profile of the profits
3 return on capital
The internal conditions that determine PER include the reward model of the company, predictability of earnings. the risk model, perceived growth opportunity and the perceived integrity of the management. I believe prediction of EPS is mainly science and part art; but prediction of PER is an art with very little science. Apart from being the most difficult aspect of successful investing, it is also the most critical.
I was the most dogmatic person when I first interacted with markets. But, markets and time have humbled me and I have learnt to realize and say, "I can be wrong" whenever I express an opinion. I have also learnt that the quest to learn and perform in markets as in life is a journey and not a destination. I have shared with you some of these learning's and shall further learn and further share with you in future.
I would like to end by sharing with you that the greatest learning i have it is that the key to success is God's Grace and Elder's Blessings.(WHY he should say so?) We should never forget that success can be temporary and transient, and should never take it for granted.

Ten strategic technologies for 2009

Gartner Inc analysts have highlighted the top 10 technologies and trends that will be strategic for most organisations. The analysts presented their findings during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo held recently.Gartner defines a strategic technology as one with the potential for significant impact on the enterprise in the next three years. Factors that denote significant impact include a high potential for disruption to IT or the business, the need for a major dollar investment, or the risk of being late to adopt.Strategic technologies affect, run, grow and transform the business initiatives of an organisation, said David Cearley, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. Companies should look at these 10 opportunities and evaluate where these technologies can add value to their business services and solutions, as well as develop a process for detecting and evaluating the business value of new technologies as they enter the market.

1)Virtualisation

Much of the current buzz is focused on server virtualization, but virtualisation in storage and client devices is also moving rapidly. Virtualisation to eliminate duplicate copies of data on the real storage devices while maintaining the illusion to the accessing systems that the files are as originally stored (data duplication) can significantly decrease the cost of storage devices and media to hold information. Hosted virtual images deliver a near-identical result to blade-based PCs. But, instead of the motherboard function being located in the data center as hardware, it is located there as a virtual machine bubble. However, despite ambitious deployment plans from many organisations, deployments of hosted virtual desktop capabilities will be adopted by fewer than 40 per cent of target users by 2010.

2)Cloud computing

Cloud computing is a style of computing that characterizes a model in which providers deliver a variety of IT-enabled capabilities to consumers. They key characteristics of cloud computing are delivery of capabilities as a service, delivery of services in a highly scalable and elastic fashion, using Internet technologies and techniques to develop and deliver the services, and designing for delivery to external customers. Although cost is a potential benefit for small companies, the biggest benefits are the built-in elasticity and scalability, which not only reduce barriers to entry, but also enable these companies to grow quickly. As certain IT functions are industrialising and becoming less customised, there are more possibilities for larger organisations to benefit from cloud computing.

3)Cloud computing Servers -- beyond blades

Servers are evolving beyond the blade server stage that exists today. This evolution will simplify the provisioning of capacity to meet growing needs. The organisation tracks the various resource types, for example, memory, separately and replenishes only the type that is in short supply. This eliminates the need to pay for all three resource types to upgrade capacity.It also simplifies the inventory of systems, eliminating the need to track and purchase various sizes and configurations. The result will be higher utilisation because of lessened waste of resources that are in the wrong configuration or that come along with the needed processors and memory in a fixed bundle.

4)Web-oriented architectures

The Internet is arguably the best example of an agile, interoperable and scalable service-oriented environment in existence. This level of flexibility is achieved because of key design principles inherent in the Internet/Web approach, as well as the emergence of Web-centric technologies and standards that promote these principles. The use of Web-centric models to build global-class solutions cannot address the full breadth of enterprise computing needs. However, Gartner expects that continued evolution of the Web-centric approach will enable its use in an ever-broadening set of enterprise solutions during the next five years.

5)Enterprise mashups

Enterprises are now investigating taking mashups from cool Web hobby to enterprise-class systems to augment their models for delivering and managing applications. Through 2010, the enterprise mashup product environment will experience significant flux and consolidation, and application architects and IT leaders should investigate this growing space for the significant and transformational potential it may offer their enterprises.

6)Specialised systems

Appliances have been used to accomplish IT purposes, but only with a few classes of function have appliances prevailed. Heterogeneous systems are an emerging trend in high-performance computing to address the requirements of the most demanding workloads, and this approach will eventually reach the general-purpose computing market. Heterogeneous systems are also specialised systems with the same single-purpose imitations of appliances, but the heterogeneous system is a server system into which the owner installs software to accomplish its function.

7)Social software and social networking

Social software includes a broad range of technologies, such as social networking, social collaboration, social media and social validation. Organisations should consider adding a social dimension to a conventional website or application and should adopt a social platform sooner, rather than later, because the greatest risk lies in failure to engage and thereby, being left mute in a dialogue where your voice must be heard.

8)Unified communications

During the next five years, the number of different communications vendors with which a typical organisation works with will be reduced by at least 50 per cent. This change is driven by increases in the capability of application servers and the general shift of communications applications to common off-the-shelf server and operating systems. As this occurs, formerly distinct markets, each with distinct vendors, converge, resulting in massive consolidation in the communications industry. Organisations must build careful, detailed plans for when each category of communications function is replaced or converged, coupling this step with the prior completion of appropriate administrative team convergence.

9)Business Intelligence

Business Intelligence (BI), the top technology priority in Gartners 2008 CIO survey, can have a direct positive impact on a companys business performance, dramatically improving its ability to accomplish its mission by making smarter decisions at every level of the business from corporate strategy to operational processes. BI is particularly strategic because it is directed toward business managers and knowledge workers who make up the pool of thinkers and decision makers that are tasked with running, growing and transforming the business. Tools that let these users make faster, better and more-informed decisions are particularly valuable in a difficult business environment.

10)Green IT

Shifting to more efficient products and approaches can allow for more equipment to fit within an energy footprint, or to fit into a previously filled center. Regulations are multiplying and have the potential to seriously constrain companies in building data centers, as the effect of power grids, carbon emissions from increased use and other environmental impacts are under scrutiny. Organisations should consider regulations and have alternative plans for data center and capacity growth.A strategic technology may be an existing technology that has matured and/or become suitable for a wider range of uses, said Carl Claunch, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. It may also be an emerging technology that offers an opportunity for strategic business advantage for early adopters or with potential for significant market disruption in the next five years. Companies should evaluate these technologies and adjust based on their industry need, unique business needs, technology adoption model and other factors.Courtesy: Gartner

An article from Arif Mohammed Khan....former Union Minister....

Pak textbooks build hate culture against India
27 Dec 2008, 0239 hrs IST, ARIF MOHAMMED KHAN (taken from TOI)

The empowerment of terror in Pakistan has not happened overnight. This is the logical culmination of the politics and policies pursued by Pakistan
for years now.

Terrorism in Pakistan has its roots in the culture of hate and the ethos of inequality on the ground of religious faith, leading to their being deeply ingrained in the Pakistani psyche and mindset.

One factor that has played a crucial role in creating this culture of hate is the educational policy of the government of Pakistan pursued since 1977. The officially prescribed textbooks, especially for school students, are full of references that promote hate against India in general, and Hindus in particular.

A cursory glance at Pakistani school textbooks - especially the compulsory subjects like Pakistan studies and social studies - gives an idea of how history has been distorted and a garbled version prescribed to build this mindset and attitude.

The objective of Pakistan's education policy has been defined thus in the preface to a Class 6 book: "Social studies have been given special importance in educational policy so that Pakistan's basic ideology assumes the shape of a way of life, its practical enforcement is assured, the concept of social uniformity adopts a practical form and the whole personality of the individual is developed." This statement leaves no doubt that "social uniformity", not national unity, is a part of Pakistan's basic ideology.

The Class 5 book has this original discovery about Hindu help to bring British rule to India: "The British had the objective to take over India and to achieve this, they made Hindus join them and Hindus were very glad to side with the British. After capturing the subcontinent, the British began on the one hand the loot of all things produced in this area, and on the other, in conjunction with Hindus, to greatly suppress the Muslims."

The Std VIII book says, "Their (Muslim saints) teachings dispelled many superstitions of the Hindus and reformed their bad practices. Thereby Hindu religion of the olden times came to an end."

On Indo-Pak wars, the books give detailed descriptions and openly eulogize ‘jihad' and ‘shahadat' and urge students to become ‘mujahids' and martyrs and leave no room for future friendship and cordial relations with India.

According to a Class 5 book, "In 1965, the Pakistani army conquered several areas of India, and when India was on the point of being defeated, she requested the United Nations to arrange a ceasefire. After 1965, India, with the help of Hindus living in East Pakistan, instigated the people living there against the people of West Pakistan, and finally invaded East Pakistan in December 1971. The conspiracy resulted in the separation of East Pakistan from us. All of us should receive military training and be prepared to fight the enemy."

The book prescribed for higher secondary students makes no mention of the uprising in East Pakistan in 1971 or the surrender by more than 90,000 Pakistani soldiers. Instead, it claims, "In the 1971 India-Pakistan war, the Pakistan armed forces created new records of bravery and the Indian forces were defeated everywhere."

The students of Class 3 are taught that "Muhammad Ali (Jinnah) felt that Hindus wanted to make Muslims their slaves and since he hated slavery, he left the Congress". At another place it says, "The Congress was actually a party of Hindus. Muslims felt that after getting freedom, Hindus would make them their slaves."

And this great historic discovery is taught to Std V students, "Previously, India was part of Pakistan."

Commenting on this literature that spreads hate, leading Pakistani educationist Tariq Rahman wrote, "It is a fact that the textbooks cannot mention Hindus without calling them cunning, scheming, deceptive or something equally insulting. Students are taught and made to believe that Pakistan needs strong and aggressive policies against India or else Pakistan will be annihilated by it."
(The author is a former Union minister)

The feedbacks posted at TOI ,I am pasting only one feedback and that is from a Pakistani citizen:

Khan,Lahore,says:I have read the same Pakistani Textbooks that the author is talking about. Every line he has written is true. And I am a Pakistani and a practicing Sunni Muslim.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/opinions/3898659.cms

This the feedback link........read them......worth going through once...to see how people reacts..

My Comments:

I would not like to say anything on the above article.I leave to understand what is what to my readers.....I know they are matured to see what is true and what is not....

Bernie Madoff arrested over alleged $50 billion fraud .........

Bernie Madoff arrested over alleged $50 billion fraud
Bernie Madoff, a former chairman of the NASDAQ stock market, has been arrested and charged with running a multi-billion dollar hedge fund swindle in New York.


By James Quinn, Wall Street CorrespondentLast Updated: 10:41AM GMT 15 Dec 2008

Bernie Madoff, former chairman of the NASDAQ stock market Photo: AP
Mr Madoff is alleged to have operated the scheme through his hedge fund business, which was separate from his better-known market-making business, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities (BMIS).
Mr Madoff told senior employees of his firm on Wednesday that "it's all just one big lie" and that he was "finished", according to a criminal complaint filed on Thursday night by the US Attorney's office and the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI).
He allegedly went on to say that the business was "a giant Ponzi scheme" – a reference to Charles Ponzi, one of the greatest swindlers in US history – and estimated that the scheme had lost investors $50bn over many years – which would make the hedge fund one of the biggest frauds in history.
"There is no innocent explanation," Mr Madoff said, according to the criminal complaint. He told the agents that it was all his fault, and that he "paid investors with money that wasn't there", according to the complaint.
He allegedly told his employees that he had, for years, been paying returns to certain investors out of the cash received from other investors.
Mr Madoff, 70, was charged with a single count of securities fraud and faces up to 20 years in prison and a fine of up to $5m if found guilty.
The criminal complaint was accompanied by a separate civil lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accuses Mr Madoff of defrauding clients of his firm and seeks emergency relief for the victims.
"Our complaint alleges a stunning fraud – both in terms of scope and duration. We are moving quickly and decisively to stop the scheme and protect the remaining assets for investors," said Scott Friestad, the SEC's deputy enforcer.
The complaint details that as of Jan 7, 2008, Madoff's investment advisory business had assets of $17.1bn, serving up to 25 clients.
Although Mr Madoff is thought to have few direct British links, he did open a London office in 1983, with Madoff Securities International becoming one of the first American members of the London Stock Exchange.
Stephen Raven, chief executive of Madoff Securities International said: “We only became aware overnight of the news relating to our Chairman, Bernard Madoff. Our business in London is not in any way part of Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities LLC. His major shareholding in our firm is a personal investment. Our business activities are not involved in any way with the US asset management company with which the reported allegations appear to be concerned. We do not have any further information beyond what is already in the public domain."
In 2000, his market-making business BMIS partnered with Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch to the form the new Primex Trading platform, one of the early rival electronic exchanges to the main bourses which eventually fell by the wayside following a partnership with NASDAQ.
BMIS is also credited with ending the old practice of quoting New York Stock Exchange-listed securities in eighths of a dollar in 1997, instead listing them in sixteenths.
Mr Madoff began BMIS with just $5,000 of savings from jobs lifeguarding at Rockaway Beach and installing sprinkler systems.
The firm grew to become a leading market maker, with brother Peter, nephew Charles, niece Shana, and sons Mark and Andrew all involved in the business at some stage in recent years.
His firm's website claims that BMIS ranks among the top one per cent of US securities firms, and states that "clients know Bernard Madoff has a personal interest in maintaining... high ethical standards."
Mr Madoff's lawyer, Dan Horwitz, called his client "a person of integrity" and said he intends to fight the charge. "We will fight to get through this unfortunate set of events." His client was released on a $10m bond secured by his New York apartment.


My Comments:
Well, Vasanth was asking me whether I will write on Bernie Madoff's scandal.
He wants to know how banks get involved.The matter of fact is that banks like HSBC, Fortis Bank,Nomura and Neue Privat Bank,Swiss private bank Reichmuth & Co.,the list is very long which includes charity trust, school trust and they are still added.
The reason banks are fix here is the banks gave loans to their clients to invest in Bernie Madoff''s
Hedge Fund and see the anamoly here.......In last one year we have seen wrost kind of financial MESS from the foreign MNC hedge funds and big names like Citi,UBS, Lehman Bros,Bear Stern,Bank Of America,Wachovia Bank , National City and many many more where the top honcos of the banks and hedge funds have actually played with the investors money in America and they have actually drowned those money of Old people in America and these people who needs the money so badly had lost 60-80% of their savings.
As Rakesh said somewhere in interview that what are these MNC's?Investors in India buys these MNC's which makes such fraud , against them Satyam is nothing!Lol.....that is what I some times feel and have written here or somewhere else.....
Well, Vasanth....Bernie Madoff was a Ponzi scheme....named after a reference to Charles Ponzi, one of the greatest swindlers in US history –
As he himself has said there was no money, no profit.He paid interest from the money he use to get for investment.These is the biggest fraud in the history....$50 bn is big big by any standard....

Obama plans infrastructure blitz to boost US economy..........

"Only two persons are very happy in this world. First is Mad And Second is Child.Be a Mad to achieve what you desire & Be a Child to enjoy what you have."

Obama plans infrastructure blitz to boost US economy

Posted Sun Dec 7, 2008 12:50am AEDT
Updated Sun Dec 7, 2008 1:20am AEDT

Mr Obama has promised to move quickly to pull the US economy out of a recession which has already pushed the unemployment rate to 6.7 per cent. (AFP: Scott Olson/Getty Images, file photo)

• Video: Obama pledges infrastructure investment to stimulate US economy (ABC News)

President-elect Barack Obama has said his plan to create at least 2.5 million new jobs would include the largest infrastructure investment since the 1950s and a huge effort to reduce US government energy use.

The United States will also make a big push to expand access to high-speed Internet and modernise school buildings across the country, he said.

"We need action, and action now," Mr Obama said in the Democratic Party's weekly radio address, one day after government data showed US employers had axed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years.

Mr Obama, who takes office on January 20, has promised to move quickly to pull the US economy out of a recession which has already pushed the unemployment rate to 6.7 per cent and could take it above 8 per cent by late next year.

He has started by asking his economic team to come up with a plan to create at least 2.5 million new jobs by 2011.

Congress is also expected to pass a hefty new economic stimulus bill in January that could be ready for his signature immediately after he is sworn in.

"First, we will launch a massive effort to make public buildings more energy-efficient. Our government now pays the highest energy bill in the world," Mr Obama said.

Replacing old heating systems and installing energy efficient light bulbs in federal buildings would save taxpayers billions of dollars, as well as create new jobs, he said.

Millions of new jobs would also come from "the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s," Mr Obama said, without providing a precise amount.

Under the plan, states would lose federal money unless they act quickly to build or repair roads and bridges.

"We'll set a simple rule, use it or lose it," he said.

Mr Obama's plan, which he said would be fleshed out in greater detail in coming weeks, includes modernising schools to make them energy efficient and putting new computers in classrooms.

"We'll also renew our information superhighway. It is unacceptable that the United States ranks 15th in broadband adoption," he said.

He said he wants to hook more schools and libraries up to the Internet and also ensure US hospitals are connected to each other electronically.

Making sure that every doctor's office and hospital in the United States is using cutting edge technology and electronic medical records would "cut red tape, prevent medical mistakes and save billions of dollars each year," he said.

- Reuters

My comments:

Well friends this has been a big shot in an arm for the US economy if that will be implemented and I have no doubt that what Obama has spoken will implement it.This is America and not India.

Did our market get the clue of this coming out and hence it rallied?We have to see whether our rallied fizzles out soon or it is a real turn around and we did make a bottom at 7600! and no looking back from there.

But the clear winners in US market would be GE.GeneralElectric co where the power system starts for the world and a leader in itself.Warren Buffet hiking stake through the right issue was no bad a decision but actually it is turning out to be a very good decision.

I remember when I was reading the 1929 great depression ,I read that Franklin Roosevelt took over as the president in 1932.The depression last for 10 yrs at that time.He immidiately declared to build roads and new buildings that can help decrease the unemplyement.He did it very fast and implement it as well in no time and the fruits were there to be seen in next decade.

Obama ,the elect president is doing the same things as he also has declared building new school buildings,and replacing new system to old ones....

Let us see what he wants to do and which sector can be beniffeted .

1)He wants to make public building more energy efficient.

2)Wants to replace old heating system and installing energy efficient light bulbs.

3)His will be the single largest investment in Infrastrcuture, highway projects, in last 50 years.

4)Modernising schools to make them energy efficient and putting new computers in classrooms.

5)Renew information superhighway. It is unacceptable that the United States ranks 15th in broadband adoption...

6) Wants to hook more schools and libraries up to the Internet and also ensure US hospitals are connected to each other electronically.

Now we will see which cos without taking name will be beniffited.The cos are

A) Producing energy efficient bulbs...

B)Cos producing energy efficient heating system

C)Infrastrcuture bulding cos for highways.

D)Co making computers

E)Broadband network cos....

F)Electronics equipment making co....

I have been saying this here many times and elsewhere that whenever world thinks USA is gone it stands up and shows that she is still the leader.

I remember somewhere I read that Warren Buffet said that look at the world.Look at this.We are leaders and developed since 200 yrs and we are still the leaders.Countries like China, Russia , Japan, Korea etc etc were thought of becoming the next power , all were there since 200 yrs but they never prospered.So if they do not prosper in 200 yrs then when they will?It means that there is something terribly wrong in the system of other countries and that is where America have the edge and that will remain forever.