Rico Auto,SNL ...Lumax Ind....

Friends,

I am seeing Rico Auto is making new highs at 32.40 up from my recomended price of 25.60.There were lots of apprehension whether my call was good enough to be here.In one and a half month it is giving 26% return.

Lumax Ind has again started giving upper circuits.SNL is in constant UC .....and has more then doubled.

Well, the main reason writing here today this post is ,I just read on moneycontrol website which says that Experts sees market at new high by Mar 2010......now how that come?Why suddenly they become bullish.......misguiding or what?Why didn't they said in Dec?Within 10 days what happened that they changed the outlook?

Well, another thing I would like to mention here .....with the new look of my blog...while adding some more SEARCH ENGINES......now one can... WRITE ANY COMPANY NAME IN THE BOX AT TOP THE EXTREME RIGHT OF MY BLOG" Search This Blog" and one would find if I have written anything on that stock.....

This is a great advantage for my readers as this makes the things much easier to back track me for any stock......

I hope my readers will be pleased to see such thing ......

Emerging markets may hit fresh highs ..........

Emerging markets may hit fresh highs
Taken from Todays's ET
TALKING STOCKS, GROWTH & INVESTMENT BETS WITH MARKETS GURU MARK MOBIUS

HE BELIEVES that emerging market valuations are currently around the mid-way mark of their historical 10-year range, and there are enough opportunities in terms of good and solid companies that can survive a downturn. Widely regarded as an emerging markets guru, Mark Mobius, executive chairman, Templeton Asset Management, ranks China and Brazil among his favourite markets, and also has sizeable exposure to Russia, India and Turkey. In an interview with Deeptha Rajkumar, he talks of how frontier markets are the next emerging markets. He says that global interdependency is growing, not shrinking.



Where do you see global equity markets headed in 2010? Which are the ones that you are betting on to outperform the rest?

We think emerging market equities seem likely to hit new highs as we go forward. Emerging economies are forecast to grow approximately four times faster than developed economies — a big difference — which should be reflected in their stock markets. But valuations in emerging markets are still lower than those of Europe and the US because the majority of investors still tend to discount emerging markets, regarding them as too risky. However, this is now changing, as governments around the world, from the US and Europe to China, have substantially increased the level of money supply to prevent deflation. With bank deposit rates, especially in the West, hovering near 1% or lower, most investors are looking for a better return on their investment and are, hence, putting their money to work in the capital markets, fueling a rise in equity prices.
We are finding opportunities in almost all emerging markets. Our ground-up research process locates opportunities in countries where the political or economic outlooks may not, at first appearance, look good. Nevertheless, we generally favour China and Brazil, but also have large positions in Russia, India and Turkey.

What about valuations? Do you think emerging mkts still have room to rise?

Even though valuations are no longer as cheap as they were at the end of 2008, we believe current valuations are around the middle of their historical 10-year range. We continue to find opportunities, and our objective is to find good, solid companies that can survive even in a downturn. Valuations in select markets such as Russia are below the average in emerging markets and as such are particularly appealing, in our view.
India/China have clearly benefited from sustained capital flows in 2009 with the former witnessing inflows of over $17 billion. Would you say this is a sign that emerging markets have finally decoupled from the developed western markets?
Emerging markets will always be coupled with developed western markets and vice versa, since trade and money flows are so much connected globally. However, that does not mean that a decline in western markets will mean a decline in emerging markets. We must look at each on a case-by-case basis. Global interdependency is growing, not shrinking. We must be ready, therefore, to grasp all the opportunities when there is an impact on that interdependency.
What are the sectors you expect to shine in 2010, globally and specific to India?
In terms of sectors, we believe commodity stocks look good because we expect the global demand for commodities to continue its long-term growth. We also favour consumer stocks. With rising per-capita income and strong demand for consumer goods and services in many emerging markets, we believe that the earnings growth outlook for these stocks is positive. Within Indian sectors specifically, we’re seeing opportunities in materials, financials and information technology.

You have been advocating investments in frontier markets. What are the pulls?

Frontier markets are the next emerging markets and include the likes of Kazakhstan, Romania, Nigeria and Vietnam. The key characteristics are the fact that they are overlooked by investors and have offered fewer investment opportunities. Frontier markets, generally, have companies that are oriented towards their respective domestic economies rather than the global economy, so we believe that they have less correlation to emerging markets in general. Most investors have refrained from investing in frontier markets because of the perceived risks. However, I do not believe that the level of risk is necessarily higher as compared to emerging markets. Frontier markets generally share the same political and economic issues as emerging markets, but their valuations may be more attractive as a result of this perception. At the end of the day, it all boils down to picking the right company or stock.

Will commodities outperform equities in 2010? What are the dangers right now in your opinion?

We expect commodity prices to continue to trend upwards, partly because of weakness in the US dollar, and also because we expect the global demand for commodities to outgrow supply over the long term. However, speculation in derivatives markets is likely to exacerbate volatility in the sector, and we recognise that the upward trend in commodities is unlikely to be smooth.

Post the Dubai crisis, which are the other landmines that investors will have to watch out for?

The negative news impacted markets globally, particularly in Asia and Europe, because a number of banks are exposed to Dubai debt and several international construction companies have had large contracts in Dubai. Most markets rebounded quite quickly after it was ascertained that damage to companies outside of the Gulf region would be very limited. As we have said in the past, in any bull market we expect that there will be corrections along the way. In our view, these corrections can be quite healthy, because to us it means that valuations will become more reasonable, presenting buying opportunities. This kind of volatility in emerging markets is what we expect and why it is so important to have a long-term investment horizon. We view these opportunities as a time to continue holding quality investments and to increase our holdings in selected stocks that we believe, over a five-year time frame, will continue to show stable financing.

How do you see interest rate changes in the US impacting the rest in 2010?

If there is a rise in interest rates without a concomitant rise in inflation so that real interest rates become highly positive, then the impact on stock markets around the world could be significant. Nominal interest rates alone would not have an impact except for a temporary psychological one. The key factor is the interplay between interest rates and inflation. High inflation would be good for equity markets provided that those high inflation rates are not accompanied by as high interest rates.

Small Update......Excel Crop Ltd and Parekh Alum

Excel Crop Ltd and Parekh Alum has started moving up.Both are now at 155 and 149 respectively.....just try to find stocks which I recomended in last one year and which were not moving uptill now......some movement should have started coming in.....

From Monday........

Market will open from 9 am instead of 10 am.
It has always been difficult to predict the range of market and course of market.Buffet invest for 20-50 yrs.RJ invest for 3-5 yrs.
FII's brought in 80,000 cr means almost $17 billion this year which is far greater then they sold in 2008 which was $ 11bn.That is almost over by 60% this year.Means whatever they sold they bought it back and invested more and still market has not made a new high.The reason is the retail participation is still not there otherwise market should have crossed 21k by now.
That is what I use to write here and that is, we are not in a state of euphoria.
Market was up by 80% and that is the biggest gain in last 18 yrs of Indian stock market.Now from here to where?
I have written many times here that we may touch 19k this year, means 2009 and may even touch 21k....but that didn't happen.But overall market remained steady in last 2 months defying all apprehension showed by analyst.
This year, in 2010 , market will definately cross the 21k all time high and will go beyond that proving all analyst wrong.I remember I also wrote that we can touch even 31k by end 2010.
Let us see what happens now in 2010.But we can see 14700 on lower scale and 27000 to 29,000 on higher scale in this year itself and as I wrote we should and will never see 12k again this year and following years. This range is hypothetical.14700 is in worst case scenario and we may even not see 14700 at all...
Market will give knee jerks and will shatter your confidence this year as well.The scenario will become such that now market is gone but those who will buy at that time will come out winner.Take a Vow that we will never play in F&O.Leave it for big players.....
2008 is gone and we are not going to see it again.
If export has started picking up, shows that world economy is coming back on track.I just read in BS that China's Industrial production has again started booming and their economy will grow again at 9% and that will be very good sign.I have seen analyst becoming sceptic on Chinese economy and giving calls that China is a bubble.They give the reason that every economy running at this scorching pace can't sustain that long but China is proving them wrong time and again.Now after 5-10 yrs or 15 yrs if Chinese economy becomes bubble and burst , will that make sense?Why to worry about 5-10-15 yrs down the line.....that is something very wishful thinking. Iwill never be able to understand analyst mind or peoples mind that they start talking of Bubble just went a past bubble has burst in near past.....We have seen 2008 a bubble bursting of Subprime Mortagage...we are not even a year over it if we take Mar 09 low then how analyst and so called experts start talking of another bubble?But those who wants to talk negative and see negative...we can't do anything to them....We have seen in recent past the Dubai fisaco.World market tanked and so did our but within a week the world market and our market were back to normal.....that is the resilience we are seeing in now in world economy.This every analyst needs to understand that ....before speaking for market....
I also believe that China is not a bubble and their economy will continue to prosper and that will help world economy as well.
Coming back to India, as I have written many times here,that lots of thing still to be done that there is no way, we can underperform.Money will keep on pouring in from overseas and then the retail participation has still not come.Even the local savings money has not started coming in market.These will lead to higher sensex.
I have no doubt about it.
The real crux here is one needs to be able to look at market and should be able to judge how market will be.If one is sceptic then even though he has multibagger in hand he will sold it out cheaply and that is not a good scenario in market.One need to try and get the maximum return from the stock where one holds so that it can make up of stock giving negative returns and laggards in portfolio.
Merely finding a multibagger is not enough.One should be able to hold on to that stock and that is only possible if one is able to read the market.I still stick to my view that holding stocks is the best way to maximise the profit.Selling at 10-20% profit and changing stocks makes no sense.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on how to pick the right stock .....

Freinds,
This maybe a repeat post, but seems that this is a very specific post....

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on how to pick the right stock
Published on Tue, Nov 17, 2009 at 15:25 Updated at Mon, Nov 23, 2009 at 11:35 Source : CNBC-TV18



If you’re a proponent of value investing, which involves buying stocks that offer value when they’re cheap and holding on to them till they achieve their potential — Warren Buffet style — here are tips from India’s own Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, that you may use.

— Jhunjhunwala’s advice to investors is not to look for companies that would give profits but understand factors that help in creating profits. “Don’t emphasise too much on analysis of profits,” he says. “Profits are created due to various stages of circumstances. I always look at how large is the opportunity for that business in the sector.” ( I think, I are doing the same here.....I have never talked of what the NP is, I have always talked of what a Co can become.....Least to say, I am not comparing myself with RJ, but can say I am on the right path after reading this...)

He recalls how he bought Praj Industries, a bio-ethanol company that gave him large returns. “When I bought Praj, we thought there would be a humongous demand for ethanol. The opportunity was huge but it was not recognized.”

IT bellwether Infosys, he said, benefited because of the internet revolution. “Nobody knew about Infosys in 1993 but Infosys could become Infosys because the opportunity for the internet went through the roof.”

“When opportunities come, they can come through technology, marketing, brands, value protections, capital, etc. You need to be able to spot those.”

— “Then I look at scalability of a particular company that I choose in a sector,” Jhunjhunwala says. “A friend of mine asked me: should I invest in a small cap or largecap? I said we must invest in the smallcaps, which will be the largecaps. The biggest challenge of investing is that you should recognise whether organization has the ability to scale.”

Jhunjhunwala says he makes an investing decision by understanding how a company’s profits may grow in the next four-five years, and by that account, its price-to-earnings and valuation. “If I succeed in making the right call, then after four-five years, I do a proper re-examination of the business model and accordingly reallocate capital because the business model can undergo change. Intense competition could emerge in that sector,” he says. “This is when I examine the earlier opinion I had made when I first bought, whether those assumptions still were valid.”

— How should you spot a good company? “You can have an idea by looking at companies’ capital raising. Are they distributing profits, are they using the surpluses in the right manner,” he says. “For me, quarters don’t matter. There can be always be an aberration in one quarter when the company has less profits. You should examine the reason for it and whether it can revert back on its growth.”

— Choices of asset classes is important too, says Jhunjhunwala. “If you bought gold in 1970 and sold it in 1980. you bought the Nikkei Index in 1980 and sold it in 1989 and then bought the Nasdaq [till before the dotcom bust], you would have made 33% compounded returns in three decades,” he says. “Warren Buffet rode the entire wave of those different asset classes.”

— “Value investing is relevant in all circumstances. But thought processes and principles are dynamic and not static. Be open to change,” he says.

— Don’t get carried away short term market trends, he says. “In 1999, people used to buy Himachal Futuristic, Global Tele, Pentasoft, I used to buy Shipping Corporation and Bharat Electronics because I saw long-term value,” he adds. “Never get carried away by aberrations, recognize and respect them but do remember that the market corrects its aberration though it takes time.”

Nov exports grow 18%, turn positive after 13 mths .......

Nov exports grow 18%, turn positive after 13 mths
Fall In Imports Of Goods & Services Slows; Trade Deficit Shrinks To $66 Billion
Our Bureau & Agencies NEW DELHI


INDIA’S exports sector has bounced back with outward trade growing by 18% in November 2009, the commerce ministry said. The export figures turned positive after staying in the red for 13 months.
The value of exports in November 2009 jumped to $13.19 billion compared to $11.16 billion in November 2008. The global economic slowdown hit the country’s exports sector hard in October 2008.
Imports of goods and services, however, remained in negative territory during this period. But the contraction was lower at 2.6%—amounting to $22.8 billion—compared to 15% in the previous month.
The cumulative data for April-November of the current fiscal showed exports dropping by 22.3% to $104.24 billion, much lower than the 26% fall up to October this financial year. Trade deficit for April-November 2009 stood at $66.18 billion, lower than $100.15 billion in the same period in 2008.
As per official data, oil imports also turned positive after 13 months and increased by 7.3% to $6.38 billion in November. Imports during April-November 2009 stood at $50.18 billion, 34.4% lower than $76.52 billion in the year-ago period.
Non-oil imports during November contracted by 5.9% to $16.5 billion from $17.5 billion in the same month of 2008. Non-oil imports were 23.8% lower at $120.2 billion in April-November 2009 compared to $157.8 billion in the corresponding period of 2008.
While exports have turned positive partly due to the low base effect of 2008, experts cautioned against complacency. “Exporters need to keep their competitiveness both in terms of quality and prices, and focus on market and product diversification,” said Indian Institute of Foreign Trade’s RM Joshi.
India’s apex exporters’ body, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), said the November data indicates the adaptability of exporters to the changing global economy and the positive impact of the stimulus extended by the government. FIEO president A Sakthivel hoped that the government would continue with the stimulus package, particularly, interest subsidy for exports.
Despite the positive growth, the country’s overseas shipments in the current fiscal are likely to remain much lower than the $185 billion worth of shipments last year. As per FIEO estimates, exports in 2009-10 are expected to remain in the range of $165-170 billion.

My Commnets:

What one will make out from this?Export has increased by 18% after 13 months....just try to think what this tells......stop reading further and think over it.What you will analyse of this...news....

Done! Well, my analysis says that this is a hint of global market stabilising.If the export has increased after 13 months then I can say that world economy has started doing good as orders has started pouring in again after long time......

Now I don't think I have to write what that means for Indian Economy as well as world economy......

I maybe wrong in my analysis...so take your own call.....

Mcnally Bharat....my old call....Expect order book of Rs 5000cr by April

Friends,
People following me since mmb should be knowing that I use to recomend Mcnally Bharat since those days when it was in 50's and even after the meltdown in 2008, I have recomended here many times and that too again around the same price.I just wrote recently that Mcnally Bharat is making new highs......
The CM just gave an interview that Mcnally Bharat is expecting an order book position of 5000 cr by Apr, means in next few months......That is HUGE.....I don't think so , that I have to write what needs to be done in this counter.....There are not many co at this valuation who have such a huge order book ....This again says that sometimes my calls are ahead of 1-2 yrs.The news come afterwards but I can foresee it very clearly......that is why some stocks do not run immidiately but once they start the upward journey there is no looking back....


Expect order book of Rs 5000cr by April: McNally Bharat
Published on Thu, Dec 31, 2009 at 15:21 Updated at Thu, Dec 31, 2009 at 21:28 Source : CNBC-TV18

Leading engineering company McNally Bharat Engineering is going to raise Rs 44 crore via a rights issue in ratio of 1:10 at Rs 140.

Commenting on the same, the company’s Chairman Deepak Khaitan says that the rights issue will help correct its debt-equity structure. He expects an order book of Rs 5,000 crore by April and believes that the acquisition synergies will flow in FY10 and FY11.

“The company’s machinery business margins currently stand at 20% and the engineering-procurement-construction (EPC) business is targetting margins of 10%,” Khaitan says.

Part of Williamson Magor Group, McNally Bharat Engineering has projects in coal washing, port cranes, civic and industrial water supply. It recently demerged its projects and products business.

McNally is going to bring resource consolidation, synergy by way of restructuring. The company has regrouped project business into four strategic units. Its strategic units are material handling and non-ferrous metals, steel, mines and port solutions and power and infrastructure.

Decade of equities: When India took centre-stage.......

Friends,
I have been through an article from Monercontrol site which I am pasting here with my COMMENTS in Bracket......

Decade of equities: When India took centre-stage.......

A decade is a long time. Especially in equity markets. When 1999 ended, the world had just witnessed the burst of a dotcom bubble that, in hind sight, many people reckoned couldn’t have gotten more nonsensical. End of 2009, and we are being thrust out of yet another larger financial bubble which, when it burst last year, threatened to obliterate the very face of capitalism.

It goes to prove the legendary Warren Buffet’s words, who once said, ‘Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.’ How many investors, though, burnt their fingers in the late 90s’ dotcom bubble and the euphoria over realty stocks back here in India between 2005 and 2007 remains to be ascertained.

But the overall story doesn’t change. Over the longer term, India’s benchmark Sensex — what with its forceful, violent corrections along the way — maintains its head up. Start 2000, and the Sensex hovered around the 5,000 mark. End of 2009, it’s above 17,000. Compare that with US stocks, and Wall Street has moved all over the place but remained exactly where it was a decade ago.


Markets often smell things in advance, it is often said. No wonder then that stock markets in China and India — the new superpowers of the east — headed up while their developed counterparts sensed something was going wrong with the world’s superpower, America, as it loaded up on its gargantuan debt by spending more than it earned, fought costly, bloody wars it was not winning, and implemented economic policies that defied both rationality and economics.

2009 resumption of bull market?

Was the correction of 2008 just another — mega, as it may — blip for the Indian market machine, one that bummed it up but which it will shrug and move on? Billionaire investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala believes so. The Indian Warren Buffett, as he is dubbed by the media, has often said the Indian economy, with its large savings, young working age populace and a clean financial system unlike the troublesome one in the west, “is in its teens”.

“I see no reason why — if Indian software exports grow by 10-15%, commodity prices hold at reasonable levels and we have good government policies — India cannot grow at double digits,” he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview in June. The Indian economy grew 7.9% last quarter when the developed nations strategised ways to fight their way out of the recession, which in simpler terms means negative growth. India, Jhunjhunwala said, would continue to attract capital from the world because of its astounding growth.

“The fall from 21,000 to 7,500-8,000 for the index [in 2008] was just a correction in the longer-term bull market in India,” he said. “Actually, the first correction started in September 2001 because the real bottom the market made was post-September 11, 2001, and then the market went up to 3,500 and had a historic correction back in April 2003.”

A staggering four-and-a-half year bull market then saw the Sensex reach all-time highs of 21,000 in January 2008, just when the global financial crisis hit home. “Now, I do not think the Sensex will cross 21,000 in a straight line. We have to correct and we have to make a range and only then we can have the next move.”

‘India in midst of ‘something special’’

Another veteran of the stock market, Ramesh Damani, thinks India is in the midst of “something truly special”.

“This bull market in terms of how well it bounced back from lows is suggesting that there is something going on that is extraordinary in India. We are in the process of taking India from a trillion-dollar economy to not a 2-trillion dollar or a 3-trillion dollar economy but something far greater,”( Here is the crux...India not in making a 2 or 3 trillion economy but far greater then this) Damani told CNBC-TV18 recently. “Maybe in a generation, we will take a population from affliction to affluence, from poverty to prosperity, maybe we would go from 100 million people in the middle class right now to a billion people in the middle class and that has profound implications for various investment horizons.” (Understand the finer lines of this sentence)

After the spectacular run seen in 2009, investors would be doing wishful thinking to expect the same pace of rise ahead, believes renowned fund manager Madhu Kela of Reliance MF. He, however, said now was a market in which stock pickers would shine. ( This is what I am doing here)“Stock-specific, there are humongous opportunities. If one is right in predicting the Indian bull run, you can even today find companies, which are in the vicinity of Rs 5,000-15,000 crore market cap that could go up three-five times over the next few years,” he recently said.

Damani says the idea now is to hunt for bargains where you can buy companies with the proverbial tri-factors: good management, good business and good value.

The market guru summed up the overall sentiment over the country nicely when he likened India of today to the America of the 50s:( One need to understand this quote) “You knew that [back then in America] the Korean War took place and the Vietnam War took place and the race riots took place but the index kept plodding higher over periods of time and if you bought the right companies at that time, you made an enormous amount of fortune by the time 2000 came around."

"So maybe we will see a lot of corrections during this way, riots in India, slippages and liquidity crises but if you invest in the right kind of companies and the right kind of stocks, probably there is a pot at the end of the rainbow that is waiting for investors.”

My Comments:
In One para RJ says that we are in teens.In one para RD says that we are going to become BIG not as 2 -3 trillion economy but much greater then that.

What if we become a 2-3 trillion economy from a trillion dollar economy?and what can happen if we become much greater then that?At 1 trillion economy we are at 17k , what if we become a 2-3 trillion economy and then much bigger then that?It is anybody's guess.......Have I to elaborate that where can be the sensex?


“Maybe in a generation, we will take a population from affliction to affluence, from poverty to prosperity, maybe we would go from 100 million people in the middle class right now to a billion people in the middle class and that has profound implications for various investment horizons.”

Can one be able to understand what it means?From going 100 million of middle class people to 1 billion middle class people?Can anyone imagine the impact of this when that happens?I think there are many of my readers who are smart enough to understand the bottomline what it means......
RD and likes says that we are at where US economy was in 50's.....what does it mean?I leave that to my readers.....
I am again listing some stocks which are looking good and the list may consist of new ones as well as old ones.That doesn't mean that which are leftout are not good as it will be difficult for me to recall all stock I recomended in past and write it here.....
1)Surya Chakra Power
This stock I recomended when I use to write at mmb and that is in last bull run.
2)Laffans Petro.
Signing MOU with Huntsman Chemical is a trigger for this Co....
3)Sujana Towers.
If someone can read the consolidate results(not standalone) there is something which I have seen which looks mind blowing to me at this time.Maybe I have overread it or not interpreted well.But if anyone can find and read it and tell me what it is, I will be glad ....
4)Rasandik Eng....
5) PAE
6)Goldstone Infra
7)SNL Bearing
8)Geometric Ltd
9)Kale Consultancy
I already recomended here at 74...now over 90...
10)Heidelberg Cement
11) Prism Cement
12)Yash Raj Containeur
13)Venus Remedies
14)Surya Pharma
15)Ind Swift Ltd
16)Ind Swift Lab
17)Resonance Speciality
This also I use to recomend at mmb
18)Jupiter Bio
19)Apar Ind
20)PSL Ltd
21)Kirloskar Ferro
22)LT Foods
23)Marg Ltd
24)MSK Project
25)JMC Project
26)Shriram EPC
27)Ennore Coke
28)India Glycols
29)Lumax Ind
30)Investment Precision and Casting
31)Super Spinning
32)Super Sales
33)Suryalata Spinning
34)Suryajyoti Spinnig
35)Surayvanshi Spinning
36)Mazda Ind
There are many which I may have missed....but the calls remains the same......Well, these are stocks whose management are not proved.This is blank calls except few...so do the DD and then take the plunge.....
Best of Luck for New Year......
We Welcome 2010.......and against what our beloved bear opinion of seeing 12k first before 21k comes...I say we will see 21k first and never see 12k.....anytime........
Updates:
Today I saw that Money Matters was firing all cylinders and closed at 168...Supreme Potro made a new high of 31.85,Kirlos Ferro made a 52 week high at 37.65,Mcnally Bharat made a 52 week high at 239,Tinplate recomended at 43 cum right made a life time high of 94.80 and many more to come......

Beating The Dalal Street ....HITS 1 LAC VISITS.....

Friends,
After 2 years of starting the blog which was on 12th Dec 2007.....the 1 lac visit has been made with 1.6 lacs pages viewed.
I accidently went to the site metre page today and saw that the 1 LAC visit has already gone through couple of days back.
I thanks every reader of mine for putting faith in me and keeping the blog in good view.
I will try my best to put my effort while writing the stuff here.

SNL Bearing and Sujana Towers....and others.....

Freinds,
I am happy to note that SNL Bearing has doubled from my recomended price of Rs 11...which I wrote here on 24 Nov...means it has doubled in 1 month.......time to Bookprofit for early birds...those who bought at 11 should bookprofit and sell 50% and make the rest FREE...
Sujana Towers has come out with excellent results for this Sep qr showing almost 4 EPS...the sales is up by 50% then last year same qr......promoters has increased the stake and are now holding over 60% stake in it.....the NPM has also improved....
Sujana Towers is going to play major role in Power sector.........
One of the reader told me that Venus Remedies and YashRaj Containeurs are also doing good along with my other calls....like Tinplate Ltd which I recomended CR......Venus recomended at 220, is now 280.....great going.....
This is just a short note....there are many which are moving steadily like Laffans Petro, Jyoti Ltd,Rasandik Eng ,PAE etc...and some are remaining steady like Geometric Ltd,Kirlos Ferro, KPIT Cummins etc after a good upmove...Sahyadri Ind has crossed 100 mark and now ready for next upmove.....
I gave a callon CCAP Ltd at 41 citing all reasons...I donno whether someone bought it or not.....it is 55 now.....
With Textile sector coming back in favour,keep track on stocks like Super Spining, Super Sales, Suryalata Spinning , SuryaJyoti Spinning and Suryavanshi Spinning....these were market darling stocks in 90's ....the first 2 stocks have 50% eq due to Bonuses.....they were very good Co...the happy days are back again .......

What should an Investor do in this market......

Freinds,
I am trying to give my view on what one should do now at sensex 17k....
My thinking maybe totally wrong and there can be big difference in what I will write or what people will think, including my readers as well as experts........I am no match to those experts as I am not in contact of what FII's thinks or what DII's thinks or what HNI's think or for that matter what Fund manager thinks be it Indian for Foriegn.....So those who find views different then me should opt for what they think is correct.There is no bounding from me.It is yours money and you should know what needs to be done.....
I sometimes also feels that as one of the reader wrote me recently that majority of my picks which I gave in 2008 , the prices are way down from there.So am I good enough to write at my blog?Well, it is ofcourse my blog and I can write whatever I think, but the question arises is if my picks do not do well then whether it is worth writing here......
He also ask me that he wants to learn from me how I pick up the stock.But I ask him, if I am not able to give proper picks , which are laggards and gives negative returns then why he should try to learn my way of picking stock......
He also once asked me that isn't it so that as market is running ,hence my picks are also doing good?Now when that is the case then where is the need to follow my blog?
He ask me if Luck is playing that much important role then why this boasting?Yes, I agree, that Luck plays important role but then in that case one needs to close the eye and put a fingure on any stock quote in ET or any business paper and buy it and if you have LUCK, you are always going to get great returns from that stock.......It is that simple....
He also tells me that I was never pessimist in whole 2008.Well, who was?Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
has said in an interview that he never thought that market will break 16k.We never saw him selling stocks in 2008.Did we?What that says?Did we saw Warren Buffet selling stocks in 2008?
Market broke 16k and even went down by 50% from there at 8k .......but RJ holding was still there.....
I have been adviced that the rule has changed.One need to sell fast and buy fast.Means take 10-20% profit and move to other stock.But according to me the rules has not changed.People holding stocks for LT has been rewarded by the market immensly and that has been proved again except the stock is proper.....
Now coming back to what one should do.........at 17,000 sensex....
Well, one should go ahead and BUY stocks if one sees value ......that is the most important thing one should understand......
As one of the reader pasted me an article of Dalal Street journal magazine ,in which it was written that many are still sceptic about the market and there are pockets who are waiting for correction.....
Value ,one will always find anytime.Was Burlington North cheap when Buffet decided to buy at 20-30% premium of market price?It was already $70-$73 and Buffet bougt at 20-25% premium....No one was ever able to see that before Buffet?Where were Marc Faber,Jim Rogers and likes ......or is it so that Buffet decision is wrong?He overly paid for Burlington North?Was Buffet thinking was wrong?

What one can see as a mistake can become a very great investment in future...I am sure many people were thinking that investment in HOEC was a blunder that RJ made but see where it is now and if one will see the latest annoucement , HOEC has all the ingrediants to go for 4 figure mark.

What is important in market is what one is able to read in future of any Co.Looking at present performance on earnings, one will say it is fully priced or overly priced but I can say that HOEC has the ability to touch 1000-1200 in due course time....I can read it from the news that are coming from HOEC .

HOEC remained dorment for almost 5 yrs and never ran in the last bull run.Instead it went on increasing capital through right issue, I think the right issue came twice......now what that will lead to.....Co is doing nothing and spending money and increasing the Eq.....and now see, before market makes new HIGH, HOEC is making new HIGHS......Analyst will always says that HOEC is overpriced.....Aree ,HOEC to kain lavato hase?Ema shun che......and those who didn't buy missed a multibagger.....
So the thing is , how you can FORESEE......how you can judge what is coming up.....that is the bottomline.....
So according to some experts if Bull market is when sensex crosses 21k...then we have a very long way to go and if one is thinking that India can grow much higher then this then one should stay invested as the peak has not come yet.
The euphoria is still not there.My way to seeing the euphoria will be when we will again see the column of 52 week high in ET becoming bigger and bigger....that has not yet comein.....I have seen some experts saying that all stocks has started running, cats and dogs ,and hence time to be catious, then I don't believe them as not all cats and dogs are running, Only those who have some story brewing up are running...At 17k, we are just 4k behind at all time high of sensex and hence cash gr stock has to matchup with it....this is not euphoria...there are many who are sitting in sidelines waiting for more correction....waiting for 13k or 12k.....as once Shankar Sharma categorically said that he sees 12k first before 21k comes......Untill those sitting on sidelines waiting for correction becomes desperate and start investing, thinking that they will now definately miss the bus...as market never gives the price at the rate you wants to enter and untill market gives that chance , it is not euphoria.....stocks that goes up is still coming back to give chance to buy at lower rate...the day the previous price stops coming back...market will starts its journey towards peaking out....

What's luck got to do with investing? ..........

What's luck got to do with investing?
Vivek KaulMonday, December 28, 2009 21:53 IST Email

How do I define history? It's just one f*%&ing thing after another.
-- Rudge in Alan Bennett's The History Boys


I came across this sentence last night and it's been haunting me ever since. It reminds me of a situation which I encounter almost everyday: "What's the story?" my editor(s) ask, when I make a pitch to them about something I want to write on.

Well I don't blame them for asking the same question over and over again. After all, newspapers are in the business of making sense of what is happening around us. But are we really doing that? Or to ask a deeper question, can we really do that?

Take the case of the BSE Sensex rallying by a little more than 500 points on December 23. Now why did it happen? If newspaper reports are to be believed (including this newspaper), the market went up because the finance minister revised the GDP growth rate to between 7.5% and 8%.

Sounds reasonable? Yes. Or does it?The FM has made such noises of the economy doing well in the past as well. Has the market rallied to such an extent, every time he has said something optimistic? Or has it rallied to the extent it rallied on December 23?

Or was it, to put it a little more realistically, a case of investors getting up on the right side of the bed, and in the pre-Christmas good mood, going out and buying stocks, and thus pushing up prices? The point is, I don't know. But I can't say that to my editor. We are in the business of explaining things. (In fact, the word analysis is even built into our paper's name). And that's what I do on an occasion like this; I try and create a story which explains things.

John Allen Paulos explains this phenomenon in his extremely engaging book A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market: "Around stock market rises and declines, people are often prone to devise just-so-stories to satisfy various needs and concerns."

Having said that, what would be the correct way to report on such events? Nassim Nicholas Taleb, before he became famous for writing Black Swan, wrote a much better book called Fooled by Randomness. In this book, he elaborates what he feels should be a true role of a journalist. "To be competent, a journalist should view matters like a historian, and play down the value of the information he is providing, such as by saying: 'Today the market went up, but this information is not too relevant as it emanates mostly from noise.'"

Now, have you ever come across a story, article or column in a newspaper that says just that? Of course not! Anybody trying to do that is more likely to lose his job, as Taleb puts it "by trivialising the value of information on his hands."

This inherent need to construct a story around events leads to several other interesting situations. The media likes heroes. We create them now to destroy them later.
Take the case of someone like a Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in India, or a Warren Buffett in the US. Are they really as competent as they are made out to be or does luck play a huge part in their success?

As Taleb writes, "If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of (strongly built) typewriters, and lets them clap away, there is a certainty that one of them would come out with an exact version of the Iliad... Now that we have found that hero among monkeys, would any reader invest his life's savings on a bet that the monkey would write the Oddsey next?"

The investors we love to write about are survivors who have had a lucky winning streak of generating greater returns than the broader market over the years.

As Malcolm Gladwell explains in his new book What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures, "Suppose that there were 10,000 investment managers out there, which is not an outlandish number, and that every year half of them, entirely by chance, made money and half of them, entirely by chance, lost. And suppose that every year, the losers were tossed out and the game was replayed with those who remained. At the end of five years, there would be three hundred thirteen people who had made money in every one of those years, and after 10 years, there would be nine people who had made money every single year in a row, all out of pure luck."

Leonard Mlodinow, a faculty at the California Institute of Technology explains this phenomenon rather succinctly: "a simple calculation shows that if a the few thousand mutual fund managers who were managing funds... were simply flipping coins once a year, rather than investing in the market, and if we equated getting 'heads' with beating the S&P, then after a few decades, the chances of a streak of 'beating the S&P' for 15 or more years in a row would be 75%.This illustrates that a streak like this was to be expected, by chance alone, and hence does not indicate skill."

A good example of a person who rode this phenomenon is a mutual fund manager called Bill Miller whose Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund -- one of the biggest mutual funds in the world -- beat the returns of S&P 500 Index for 15 consecutive years from 1991 to 2005.

Tomes got written on his legendary investing style and various reasons got attributed to his success. But Mlodinow feels Miller was plain lucky. And his performance regressed to the mean once the current financial crisis had an impact on the performance of his fund. As Michael J Mauboussin, Miller's colleague at Legg Masson, writes in his new book Think Twice, "We have difficulty in sorting skill and luck in lots of fields, including business and investing."

Over and above this, because these guys are famous, other investors follow their investing decisions, buy when they buy, and sell when they sell. This makes these investors look even more smarter than they are. As Paulos writes about Warren Buffett: "His phenomenal success... is often cited as an argument against the market's randomness. This assumes, however, that Buffett's choices have no effect on the market. Originally no doubt they didn't, but now his selections themselves... can influence others. His performance is therefore a bit less remarkable than it first appears."

At times, investors themselves come up with stories and theories regarding their investment decisions. George Soros, the hedge fund manager, who once broke the back of the British pound, is said follow the Theory of Reflexivity, which was influenced by the work of the philosopher Karl Popper (who said and as Gladwell states in his new book, "You could not know with any certainty that a proposition was true; you could only know that it was not true"), while making his investment decisions.

But as Robert Soros once said about his more famous father, "My father will sit down and give you theories to explain why he does this or that. But I remember seeing it as a kid and thinking, Jesus Christ, at least half of this is bullshit. I mean, you know the reason he changes his position on the market or whatever is because his back starts killing him. It has nothing to do with reason. He literally goes into a spasm, and it's this early warning sign."

Luck plays a much more important role in the investing process than people (which include journalists like me) are ready to admit. But if we in the media start attributing luck and noise to every time a market moves, or an investor does well, what will we ever write about? And we need our headlines, because headlines sell what we write, though they never tell you the real story.

As Taleb summarises it best "People do not realise that the media is paid to get our attention. For a journalist, silence rarely surpasses any word."

Supreme Petro......my old call......

Friends,
I gave a call on Supreme Petro long time back.
I even discussed it here recently......
Now ET has come out with a buy report which I am pasting here for my readers.....
Reading today also that Goldman Sachs is taking over 10% stake for 500 cr and they will join the board of Max India as well......Max India , has remained my favourite stock as I have been recomending it time and again.
That once again proves that my calls are well ahead of time.....


Supreme Petrochem:

Supreme Petrochem is set gain from a turnaround in the polystyrene industry. Long-term investors should invest in the stock .


SUPREME Petrochemicals is India’s largest producer and exporter of polystyrene (PS) polymer with an installed capacity of 272,000 tonne per annum (TPA). The company acquired Shin Ho Petrochemicals in 2006 with a manufacturing capacity of 6,000 TPA of expandable polystyrene (EPS) at Chennai. The name of the company was later changed to SPL Polymers, before merging it with Supreme Petrochemicals.
In 2006, the company had entered into an MoU with the Maharashtra government to set up a world class styrenics complex and a minor port in the Raigad district at an estimated investment of Rs 1,115 crore. However, the land acquisition for the project is still continuing through MIDC
while the company has obtained environmental clearances. The company has implemented a share buyback last year to acquire and extinguish 15.4 lakh shares. The company’s equity capital now stands reduced to Rs 96.8 crore.

GROWTH DRIVERS:

The polystyrene industry globally had been suffering from overcapacity and stagnating demand due to competition from polypropylene. However, the scenario has improved with nearly 1.5 million tonne or 10% of the world’s PS capacity closing down in last three years. At the same time, the demand prospects are improving. The lightweight sheets made from extruded PS are increasingly being used for insulation in construction buildings to reduce energy consumption. In fact several developed countries have made this kind of insulation mandatory, and even in India the concept is gaining currency as part of ‘Green Building’ initiatives. In fact the first half of 2009 witnessed the domestic demand for PS spurt 22% against a year ago.
Supreme Petrochemicals is also shifting its focus from commodity polymer to value added varieties such as coloured, compounded, specialty, expandable, extruded and cup grade polystyrene. It has lined up investments of over Rs 200 crore to expand its capacities in all these value added products within next 18 months. The company has also entered in a tie-up with Italy’s Ultrabatch to manufacture and market high-end additive masterbatches, which are concentrated mixture of pigments and additives. Similarly, it has joined
hands with the US based Nova Chemicals to set up 20,400 TPA cup-grade EPS plant in India, which has recently commenced operations.

FINANCIALS:

The company has been stagnating over last 5 years - both in case of topline as well as bottom line - due to difficult situations in the global polystyrene markets. During these five years, the company improved its debt-equity ratio gradually to 0.7 as on June 30, ’09 as against 1.48 five years ago.
For the year ended in June ’09, the company recorded a net profit of Rs 19.2 crore despite a net loss of Rs 46.7 crore in the December ’08 quarter due to inventory losses. A strong rebound in demand in the first half of 2009 enabled the company to wipe out these losses and end the year in profit.

VALUATIONS:

At the current market price of Rs 26 the company is valued at eight times its profits for the trailing 12 months. The current price is just 1.3 times the book value of the company’s stock price. Going forward, we expect the company to report net profit after tax of Rs 55 crore during the year ending June 2010, which translates in a forward P/E of 4.6. The dividend yield of 3.8% can add to the margin of safety for an investor. Considering the growth prospects as a result of the industry turnaround Supreme Petrochemicals appears attractively priced.
ramkrishna.kashelkar@timesgroup.com

Valuation............

What is valuation?How is it determined?What are the parametres to determine it.
We have seen experts of stock market speaking on Valuation.
The term use are undervalued, Overvalued or valuation at par....there can be many more names for giving ......
Now , how one can come on conclusion that the stock is overvalued or undervalued.I have a big PDF file which explains how to calculate the valuations that someone send me.I have saved it in my computer but has never read it.
If one will try to find a book on how to find valuation, they will find many books and after reading investor will find it fentestic and also would talk to some other stockmarket friend about that book and even refer it to read it.
Why I didn't go through that PDF File speaking on valuation?There are reasons for me not go read it.
I am not sure whether it is still there in my computer, so please don't ask for it........
I have seen that analyst who comes on business channel, says that so and so stock is now fully valued,means very less scope of going up.So one need to sell it or bookprofit in it.
Some stock expert says it is undervalued and can be bought.
I have seen one fund house or FII's or brokerage house giving a overvalued call on certain stock and other will come out with a buy call......in next couple of days......Now why that is happening?When one says it is overvalued why other is saying undervalued?
This gives the answer itself....there are different parametres to look at the valuations and all have different way to analyse it.One find overvalued other find undervalue....why so , because the growth one is able to see, other is not able to see.Or in other words,what one has got the firsthand information after meeting the management, other is not having that and hence one ends up saying it is overvalued and other end up saying it is undervalued........
Well, if there is not a big difference between two opinion then it is OK but when one says is totally opposite to what other say then whom to believe.
Valuation is not a constant thing.It keeps on changing,everyhour, everday , everyweek, everymonth or even everyyear.
A Co, say Aban Llyod, was overvalued in Jan 2009 and need to be sold with so big of debt and I was reading sell call from each and every house and in just one go......Crude started going up....valuation become cheap......look at the 52 week lows and 52 week high........of Aban Llyod....
Just a big order for a Co and stock become CHEAP......one product becomes successful and stock become undervalued.....
Valuation is a constantly changing thing.A stock can remain overvalued or fullyvalued for 2-3 yrs or even 4-5 yrs and suddenly the fortune changes and stock becomes darling and everyone wants to buy it......There are innumerable example like that in Indian Stock market as well in International market.
Valuation depends on how the economy is faring, how the Cos product is doing, what are the future potential of the Cos product,what world will need, how will be the demand,will perticular co will get beniffited from that and over and above that How market is doing.......there are so much of things to be taken care of that it is impossible to say anything on valuation front at anytime unless you have firsthand report.....on any Co.
Nestle was looking costly at 1600 to Dr Vikas and now at 2500 he is asking me whether it is a buy or not.
So at 1600 Nestle was overvalued and at 2500 it is not?Well that depends on how one thinks.If someone think that product will do good and has great future , one can definately go ahead and buy it at even this rate.
There is P/E ratio to decide.People looks at P/E .....sector p/e and see if that stock has lower p/e then other peers gr.....but that is also always not a great thing to do.Market can keep certain stock undervalued for a longer period of time and one can left with that stock not moving at all for entire whole bull run.......
Valuation is also related with demand and supply.If demand is more and supply is less then the stock can soar to great highs....irrespective of earnings.....
I have seen people (read expert) selling stocks at 3-5 times return and that stock went on to give 20-30 times return..............so noone can say that a stock is overvalued or undervalued......I think it is impossible to opine on that parametres.....
Have you ever met with a stock which when you see after 3-6 months or a year and you feel ,you missed it?These thing should have happened with each and everyone.I have no doubt about it.
Now why you were not able to buy it at that time ?What was the reason at that time that you missed such a great stock and ended up with something else which may be a laggard in your portfolio?Because at that time you were not able to see what is there in that stock and hence you didn't buy and those who were able to see bought it and making hay......
If the fundmanagers , analyst and some experts are so great in telling whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued then why their clients or funds Nav is still underpeforming even with the average return of market?
If they are great teller then they should show better return then the market gives but that is not the case........Very less funds gives above average return then market and very less gives same return like market .....
What is value then?Value is brand, value is management,value is growth, Value is foreseeing .....like when I wrote on SNL Bearing Ltd......it is NRB bearing managed Co .....which is showing positive bottomline.....and available at just Rs 11!Can one imagine a NRB Bearing run Co have such a less value? that is VALUE........Like I wrote on Yashraj Containeurs Ltd......great product and great clientele list and great earning .....and stock at 3-4 p/e?That is value.......and mind well, after doing all these market may not give the thumbs up to that stock...and one has to wait for longer period untill others find out.....

SNL Bulk Deal.......

Freinds,
I saw a Bulk Deal on bsesite for SNLBearing.....


23/12/2009 505827 SNL Bearings SHAREKHAN LTD A/C Diversified Equity B 37000 18.50

So from some 41750 shares traded ,37000 shares went to an a/c of Diversified Equity fund with Sharekhan.....Seems someone is buying for LT.....
One of the reader named Deb was asking me what about those stocks which are not running and standing still or have gone down after my recomendation.
Well, I want to give answer to all here so that no one has any question left in future.Though I have been writing giving reasons what happens and what needs to be done....but seems followers are not reading me properly ......it means they just read my post casually....just for the sake of reading other wise no one should be able to end up asking some question which are not supposed to be asked......
Anyway, now let me come to the point......
It is obvious that
1)Not all stocks that I recomend is going to run immidiately.
2)Not all will give multibagger returns.
3)Not all will run in this Bull Run...
4)Some will also underform
5)Some will also give negative returns.....
6) Some will give average return....

Now one will look at this list ,the negative list is bigger then Positive.....
Hence forward keep this point in mind before buying any stock that I recomend here.
I am at all not responsible for any negative return or no profit......If anyone feels at anytime that after buying stocks , it is not worth holding , he should sell it without letting me know......or need not ask me whether it is still a hold or not.......Its yours money and your money is at stake ......hence the decision should also be yours......when one should sell and what should be done , I have discussed in detail .....
What I am doing here is just pointing out some undiscovered stocks.....that's all.........
It is obvious that no all picks can give multibagger return.What I write here is stocks which has potential to become multibagger.....and when I say potential,means there is a story in it, and it may comeout good or maynot........that RISK will remain always...........

I am at all not responsible for any loss or profit of any readers who buys or sells reading my calls......As whatever PROFIT they make from my calls is theirs, so is the LOSS they make from my calls........

Stocks recomended in past......

Friends,
I remember I recomended Gensys Int at around 100 which has doubled at 201.
I use to recomend time and again Jyoti Ltd around 35-42 range.It was inching up slowly since many days and suddenly it went for 20% UC yesterday to close at 62.75.....
Jyoti Ltd has been my favourite pick and I have recomended it many times here.Looking still good and can be bought in small quantity now and add on dips....
I have been recomending EPC Ind along with Rungta Irrigation.EPC Ind is looking good and promoters are buying big from the open market.Just saw today in ET that Schroder Credit has bought 9,16,667 shares along with Credit Renaissence 1,83,333 shares .....on 11 th Dec....
EPC ind is still looking good at 48......
There is one stock named ASM Technology at 28 which is looking good to me.
Ennore Coke recomended here at 43 along with PAE at 31 has been firing all cylinders......Ennore Coke after making a high of 64 corrected to 51 and now again back to 60 and in circuits.So is PAE....
Both have a long way to go......
I recomended SNL Bearing Ltd at just Rs 11 here and it is making new highs at 19.84 ....and looking good still to me.....
I have been recomending Laffans Petro since long and has been my favourite since my mmb days.Laffans has signed MOU with M/s HUNTSMAN CORPORATION, SINGAPORE PTE LTD which is going to be a trigger for growth for Laffans Petro in future.This MOU will do whole lot of good for this Co located in Gujarat.
Offlate I have been tracking Rasandik Eng and looking good to me at around this level or even 4-7 points up.
The best thing is when a stock is found ,one need to first take a token entry at the prevailing rate and then wait for any correction.But don't miss the entry as it may happen sometimes that stock runsup and we totally lose opportunity to buy it at all........
So first buy token quantity and then have a look and then take a plunge in it after due diligence....We don't know which is going to be a multibagger....like I just saw that Splash Media was only Rs .35 in Jan 09 and now it is Rs.535 in Dec 09....means 15 times return in a complete 1 year.....that is enormous by any standard.....
Who says one cannot get big return .....in stock market......there is nothing impossible in market ...everything is possible.....Remember this FOREVER.....

Mark Mobious Latest Interview..............

By Frederik Balfour , On Friday December 18, 2009, 8:08 am EST

Mark Mobius is a legend among emerging-market investors. For more than 30 years, the 73-year-old fund manager, who oversees $33 billion spread across 35 Franklin Templeton funds, has scouted for investment opportunities in unlikely places. His U.S.-listed Templeton Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE:EMF - News)had a 109% return as of Dec. 14, compared with 73% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Hong Kong-based correspondent Frederik Balfour caught up with Mobius by phone as the fund manager was visiting Doha, Qatar -- one stop on an itinerary that included Dubai, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Libya.

What was behind the huge runup in emerging markets in 2009?

With the subprime shock, everybody was looking for safety. And for some strange reason, they thought the U.S. dollar was safe and went into money market funds until January or February of 2009. Then people began to wake up to a few things. One was that the supply of currency would at some time outpace demand, so value would decrease. In China there was 21% growth of money supply, and in the U.S. 18% to 20%. That created this incredible liquidity looking for a home as people woke up (to the fact) that they should think about inflation coming down the pike. They weren't getting any yield on dollar deposits, so equities were the obvious answer.

Have emerging markets moved too far too fast?

The percentage increases are a bit misleading because you are coming from a low base(That is what needs to be understand by market GURUS). We are only halfway toward the previous high of 1997. Have we gone too far? The only measure we have is valuations, and probably the best single measure is price-to-book value ratio. (Book value is a measure analysts use to estimate what a share of stock would be worth if all the company's tangible assets -- factories, real estate, and so on -- were liquidated.) If you look at the average price-to-book ratio based on the stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, we are only halfway to the 1997 high. The absolute high was three times book, the low was one times book, and now we are at two times book, roughly.

Could things reverse course?

You better believe there are a lot of hedge funds out there betting against this rally. That provides more volatility. It's a self-feeding situation. You have to be aware that the volatility will be there and there is nothing you can do about it.

Apart from all the money in the system, what is driving the emerging-market rally?

Fundamentals. If you look at any time period -- 10 years, 3 years, 1 year -- emerging markets have outperformed U.S. and global markets.(This someone needs to go and tell Shankar Sharma who always advocates that Emerging markets movement is corelated with US market) Their economies ( read emerging market)are growing faster, four times faster. And during the 1997-1998 Asian crisis (policymakers in) emerging markets realized they needed strong balance sheets at the national and company level and had to build up foreign reserves, which they've done. They were building up reserves, keeping their currencies low, and reducing debt. Their debt-to-gross-domestic-product levels are way below developed markets, and when you look at the foreign exchange picture, it's even more impressive. Russia has $400 billion in reserves; China, $2 trillion. So where do you want to put your money? Obviously, emerging markets are the place.

How did the panic caused by property developer Dubai World's debt woes affect the appetite for emerging-market stocks?

There was some retreat, but it was very short-lived. Dubai keeps on tanking because of uncertainty. Emerging markets hardly missed a beat.

What markets are you keen on?

Brazil and China. Our funds are big, so obviously we want to be in a place where there is good liquidity. But we are also looking at many other markets. We have a frontier-markets fund that we launched about a year ago -- we have one fund in the U.S., one in Europe, and one in Korea. Korean investors have become quite global.

What new markets have you entered?

Well, I was just in Libya and Algeria, though it will be a while before we (invest) there. I am speaking to you from Doha in Qatar, then I'm on to Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia and back to Dubai. We are investing in all those countries. There is money coming into our funds, and we see opportunities. Obviously with the high degree of uncertainty, you see an overreaction in Dubai (so there are buying opportunities). Qatar has gas exports taking off, and it's going to have a lot of money to invest. They are building this incredible infrastructure and investing in technology. We are investing in Qatar Steel and Qatar National Bank. In Dubai, we are investing in Emaar Properties and DB World, the ports company.

We continue to hold on and buy in India. In Pakistan, we are probably overweight compared with everyone else. For our Asia growth funds, we have been buying Pakistan Telecom, MCB Bank, and Indus Motor, which is a Toyota (NYSE:TM - News) assembler and distributor. In Iraq, we haven't gone in yet. We have a private equity fund looking at it as well. There is a stock exchange, by the way. And Iran has a big market. When and if things get better, that would be an obvious place to hit.

What themes are you investing around?

Commodities are a main theme. We are looking at $70 per barrel in our model. Another theme is consumers, because the per capita income of consumers in emerging markets is going up. We hold retail chain Massmart from South Africa, which is beginning to move north to other countries. In Kenya, (we hold) East African Breweries. As for telcos, we find them expensive and think the chances of growth are diminishing. It's a bit like the airline industry. You have to keep on investing and buying expensive licenses where the government takes you for a ride.

How do you expect emerging markets to perform in 2010?

You cannot expect the same kind of percentage increases, but that doesn't mean you can't have a very good return. We are not in the mode of selling massively or getting into cash, that's for sure. That's probably the consensus opinion, which is usually dangerous. But we are finding companies with good dividend yields, companies that are growing.

My Comments:

I have already given my comments in bracket in the post.......now it is on readers what needs to understand and whom to follow....

Yashraj Containuers.....cmp..24.45.....Value Buy...

Friends,
Yashraj Containuers is in containers and packaging sector.

Profile:

Starting with the manufacture of metal barrels, of 180 - 235 liters capacity, in the year 1993, YASHRAJ has grown to become one of the largest manufacturers of industrial packaging solutions in India with a wide range of standard and specialty steel barrels in different sizes and thicknesses with a choice of internal as well as external coatings and configurations. Since its birth, YASHRAJ has committed to Excellence through continual improvements in Customer service and product quality along with developments of new technologies and processes.
Easy access to raw materials manufacturers & customers, ready markets, fully automatic plant incorporated with latest engineering technology, well implemented quality management systems, innovative strategies give YASHRAJ significant advantages over its competitors.


Professionally well qualified, highly accomplished, experienced and committed personnel are the strength of this organization. Active participation of all employees in continual improvements and tackling real business problems helps them to learn practical insights and a pragmatic approach with a clear business focus, which in turn helps YASHRAJ to achieve its goals.

The Machine
YASHRAJ's strategically located fully automatic Steel barrel manufacturing plant at Daman is having an installed production capacity to manufacture 400 barrels per hour. The plant is equipped with machines from renowned manufacturers such as 'General Macchine Impianti s.r.l, Italy ( Main barrel manufacturing line), Thermax Ltd ( Barrel Pretreatment Line), Nordson Corporation, USA ( Hot Airless Spray Painting Systems), Deltax ( Electrical Resistance Welding Machine) etc.

Conveyors between each & every processes in barrel manufacturing, EOT Crane, Hoists and other low cost automations incorporated in the plant help to achieve minimum manual handling of raw materials, semi-finished and finished products.



Our properly designed finished goods storage space that can store 15000 barrels at a time and the designated trucks for barrel transportation are also playing their role in quality improvements.

Strict implementation of Total Productive Maintenance of plant and machineries helps to maximize processes reliability and optimum machine turn around & plant utilization capacity.

The Technology
Barrels are manufactured in our ISO 9001: 2000 Certified Daman plant under the dimensional and performance standards set by Bureau of Indian Standards, Indian Institute of Packaging, UN Performance Level or our Customers itself. "Electrical Resistance Seam Welding" technology (with an overlap of 2.2 mm) is used in Vertical Seam.The top & bottom lids are mechanically seamed to the body shell of barrel using "Triple Seam" technology that guarantee leakproofness of barrel.


"Three Stage External Barrel Pretreatment System" (which consists of Hot Degreasing, Rinsing and Passivation),there after water drying through oven ensure the elimination of dust, rust, grease, oil etc on the barrel surfaces before painting.


Hot Airless Spray Painting Systems, Paint Baking through a continuous oven and the barrel Cool - off system ensure safe performance of the product.

Specially selected and imported as well as indigenous barrel manufacturing machines equipped with Programmable Logic Control systems, aided by Siemens and Allan Bradly Softwares, ensure precise and fine control of the finished product properties.

QUALITY
Continual up gradation, implementation and strict Maintenance of world class quality has been the reason for YASHRAJ being a major success in the industry. We provide the best of our services to assist our customers to fulfill their requirements at a very competitive price through our design of custom made superior quality products and the use of special purpose manufacturing techniques.

This superior quality, the state-of-the-art processes and the committed work force has helped YASHRAJ to find a name for itself in the list of elite companies awarded the ISO, BIS and UN Certifications for its products and processes.

PRODUCTS
We offer various packaging options to our esteemed customers such as 'Closed Top' & 'Open Top' steel barrels in a range of sizes and thicknesses with a choice of coating for safe packing of materials for petroleum products and oils, chemicals and pesticide, paint and varnishes, food, pharmaceutical and hazardous chemical industries with a high degree of internal cleanliness, leakproofness and external appearances.

CLOSE TOP BARRELS

YASHRAJ Close Top steel barrels with a capacity of 216.5 liter, which are ideal for liquids, complies with IS 1783 standard or other major international standards for steel barrels as per customer requirement. These barrels also comply with stringent UN regulations for packing non-dangerous and dangerous goods in the packing groups 1, 2 and 3.

YASHRAJ steel barrels are provided with rolling hoops and thinner gauge steel barrels are provided with extra corrugations for better mechanical strength.

Electrical resistance seam welding of body shell, Triple seaming of top & bottom lids to the body shell and the superior quality systems checks implemented throughout all phases of barrel manufacturing processes ensure the best performance of the products.

Two openings of 2" & ¾" provided on the barrel allow easy and convenient filling and removal of materials. Gaskets ( rubber / nylon / plastic) on closures are provided depending up on the application of barrels at customer end.

Barrels are available in various sizes ranging from 180 to 235 liters and thickness of steel ranges between 0.8 to 1.25 mm along with a customer specification of external decorative paint coating which is resistant to humidity, sunlight and heat.


YASHRAJ barrels can be internally coated with a phenolic, epoxy-phenolic lacquer or a special coating in accordance with the customer requirement. Technical assistance is provided to customers to determine the suitable internal coating for their specific purpose. Different types of sealing compounds are used depending up on the compatibility of that compound with the product to be filled in the barrels while manufacturing barrels.

YASHRAJ offers special ISO barrels of 210 liter capacity For exporters, 80 of which can be stacked in one 20 foot freight container. G.I coated barrels are also supplied to customers for their specific purpose.




OPEN TOP STEEL BARRELS

YASHRAJ Open Top Steel barrels are suitable for storage and transportation of liquids, pastes and solid substances. These barrels comply with UN regulations for packing non-dangerous and dangerous goods in the packaging groups II and III. These barrels also comply IS 13997 standard or other major international standards as per customer requirement.

The full open top removable cover and closure ring allow easy filling and removal of all contents, including high viscous liquids and powders. The full open top removable cover can be provided with different gaskets and 2" & 3/4" closures . The barrels can be provided with a Lever type or Nut and Bolt type closure ring. Different types of lever in various sizes and steel thicknesses and rings of various steel thicknesses
can be provided as per customer requirement.

Electrical resistance seam welding of body shell, Triple seaming of top & bottom lids to the body shell and the superior quality systems checks implemented throughout all phases of barrel manufacturing processes ensure the best performance of the products.

Open Top Barrels are available in various sizes ranging from 180 to 235 liters and thickness of steel ranges between 0.8 to 1.25 mm along with a customer specification of external decorative paint coating which is resistant to humidity, sunlight and heat.

Open Top Barrels, provided with rolling hoops and corrugations depending on the thickness of steel used in fabrication, are available. Customer specified plain open top barrel with out any rolling hoop or corrugations are also available. In addition to that, YASHRAJ also offers internal coated (with epoxy lacquer), ISO container type and Zinc coated / Galvanized open top barrels.

COMPOSITE STEEL - PLASTIC BARRELS

YASHRAJ Composite barrels have a double shell protection. The inner is a blow moulded plastic liner made from virgin high density polyethylene. This is surrounded by high quality cold rolled steel to provide unrivalled protection.

Composite barrels, in a capacity of 210 liters, are designed for packing dangerous and corrosive materials. These drums comply with UN regulations and Indian Institute of Packaging standards.

Two openings with 2" plastic closures are provided on the top lid of such barrels for filling and removal of contents. Vent holes or 3 /4" closure is provided on the bottom lid of barrels.


Electrical resistance seam welding of steel body shell , Triple seaming of top & bottom lids to the body shell, best quality plastic liners and the superior quality systems checks implemented throughout all phases of barrel manufacturing processes ensure the best performance of the products.


The chemically cleaned surface of steel barrel, special stoving enamel paints, high quality application of painting and paint baking give a cutting edge to YASHRAJ Composite barrels for excellent resistance to humidity, heat and sunlight.

CLIENTELE

Our client list includes leading companies in the government public sector undertakings, defence services and private sector companies. Few among our major customers are Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, IBP, Bharat Shell, Gulf Oil Corporation Ltd, Jubilant Organosys Ltd, Tide Water Oil Company India Ltd, Asian Paints Ltd, United Phosphorus Ltd, Reliance Industries Ltd, Micro Inks Ltd, Ranbaxy Fine Chemicals, Mitsu Ltd etc.


My Comments:

Yashraj Containuers is constantly showing great results and in last qr the NPM also went up.Need to see whether it get sustained or not.

Mcap of Yashraj Containuers is just 22 cr and sales is 112 cr means 5 times more then Mcap.Eq is tiny at 9 cr and hence looking excellent on fundamental front when we look at the earnings , its products and clintele list.

One of analyst who use to come on CNBC , not frequently, but use to come every 3-4 months or 2-3 months has taken stake in it and one can see his name in the SHP.I would not name him but would like to know from my readers who is he......He is there since 3-4 years and has not sold a single share uptill now.

Yashraj Containuer is looking good to me and I would recomend it as a buy as promoters are buying constantly from the market and I think in last couple of days they have lapped up some 1.75% shares from the market.

Well, friends I have given one more stock where one can invest at very early stage and reap benifits from it.

My call on CCAP Ltd which I gave on 4 th Dec at 41.70 touched 58 couple of days back and is still at 51 and that is a return of 40%.

Someone asked me that the stocks I recomends moves more because of market is moving up.It is not my picks that is good.If that is the case then he or anyone can pick any stocks and make millions.Anyone has that liberty to do that way.I have recomeded stocks in Mar 2009 when no one was ready to give a buy call for market or for any perticular stock.

I still say what I have written in past when market was bad and that I write it again.

It is easy to buy stocks when chips are down.It is always difficult to buy stocks when market is running or is good.When chips are down like we saw in 2008 all stocks were available at cheapest rate.L&T available at 557,Thermax available at 151 and many more like Siemens, Areva T&D,Alsthom Ltd ,Torrent Power etc ...these were A gr stocks where one has to just invest and forget...and I did recomeded in Mar 09. and one can see where they are now.So when chips are down u find everything at cheap rates but when market starts moving it becomes more and more difficult......

When market is good and when everything is running it is difficult to find stocks which are undervalued and that is what I am doing here......but if someone feels the otherway I can't help in anyway.Best thing is he should find stocks by himself and then buy it and see where it goes.I am not saying one can't do that.One can surely should be able to find stocks on his own and buy it.

There is no neccessity to visit my blog for my picks if one feels that my picks runs because market is running.

Bombay Dyeing @408 and Bombay Burmah..@ 292......

Friends,
Bombay Dyeing is having lands at Worli and Dadar area which are very precious area where the price can be enormous.

Bombay Dyeing Realty launches two projects in Mumbai. The opted locations are Worli and Dadar. CNBC-TV18’s Varinder Bansal reports.

Below is a verbatim transcript of Varinder Bansal’s comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Bombay Dyeing is all set to develop residential and commercial projects. It has a landbank of nearly 90 acre in Dadar and Worli. If we translate this to per lakh square feet, it comes upto 60 lakh square feet taking FSI of nearly 1.33. The average land rate in Dadar and Worli is 10,000 per square feet. The land value is seen around Rs 6,000 crore...

Company background:

The company’s current market capital is Rs 1,600 crore. In FY09 the company made a hug loss. On textile segment, it reported a huge loss of Rs 66 crore whereas in the polyester segment the company reported a loss of Rs 73 crore. The reality arm of the company is doing very well. In FY09, the company made a profit in the realty segment worth Rs 160 crore.

Analysis says that in the coming four-five years, the realty arm could be demerged and be listed separately. Investors are enthusiastic about this particular company. Foreign brokerage has come up with a small note to some of the clients that the net asset value of this company could be valued between Rs 1,000-1,200 per share.

So has Bombay Burmah....where they have land banks and interest in Aviation Ind ,TEA Plantataion, Coffe Plantation and Rubber Plantation which is their old business .....along with that they have Laminate Flooing division which is very famous brand....Formica..
These twins of Nusli Wadia can give great returns if hold pateintly for LT......the land bank they possess in a very cream area of Mumbai, viz.Dadar and Worli( known for it's Sea face)....one need to keep in mind that Bombay Burmah also have land bank.......

New HOT Sector............Carbon Credit.......

Carbon credits offer us a Rs 28,000-cr opportunity

LESLIE D’MONTE New Delhi, 10 December
The Indian government has approved more than 1,400 projects as part of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) that could attract around $6 billion(Rs 28,000 crore) into the country by 2012 through sale of Certified Emission Reduction (CER) certificates, according to Environment and Forests minister Jairam Ramesh.

The National CDM Authority (NCDMA) in India has accorded Host Country Approval to 1,455 projects. These projects have seen an investment of more than $33.7 billion(Rs 1.6 lakh crore). If all these projects get registered at the CDM executive board, it will earn developers over 600 million CERs by 2012. At aconservative price of $10 per CER, the figure works out to a little over $6 billion.

“This is the potential foreign direct investment (FDI) that India stands to earn from carbon credits. In fact, 10 per cent of India’s annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be neutralised because of this,” Ramesh told Business Standard ,adding: “India may be the second-largest country in terms of the number of CDM projects (after China) but is the best in terms of implementing them.” Carbon-efficient projects in India, China, and other developing nations, however, are facing uncertainty over the new compliance rules post 2012 since the Copenhagen Agreement is expected to establish a new sectoral carbon market-crediting mechanism with focus on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in less developed countries (LDCs).

In fact, despite the promise that carbon credits hold, the number of Indian carbon offset projects proposals submitted every day to India’s national authority — that is, CDM India — has reduced approximately by 30 per cent, according to Mayank Batra, Research Analyst (Environment and Building Technologies), South Asia & Middle East, Frost & Sullivan.

Carbon credits are a key component of national and international attempts to mitigate the growth in concentrations of GHGs. One Carbon Credit is equal to a tonne of carbon. Carbon trading is an application of an emissions trading approach. There are two broad methods of earning carbon credits. Carbon Offset Credits, which consist of clean forms of energy production, wind, solar, hydro and biofuels. And Carbon Reduction Credits which comprise the collection and storage of carbon from the atmosphere through biosequestration (reforestation, forestation), ocean and soil collection and storage efforts.

“Project-financing activity has also declined, as people are looking at Copenhagen for future developments and buyers are not willing to enter into deals that have post-2012 delivery,” says Batra.

Asia is the leading supplier of CERs in the global carbon market, holding approximately 77 per cent of the share. Over 3,714 projects are developed under CDM all over Asia. Most of these are the future-installed power projects, which will have a capacity of around 58 Gw in hydro, wind, biomass, geothermal, biogas, landfill gas, solar, tidal, energy efficiency-based own generation, and coal bed/coal mine methane sectors.

India, on its part, has generated around 30 million carbon credits, and approximately 140 million are in pipeline. Around 225 Indian projects in the fields of biomass, cogeneration, hydropower, and wind power with a potential of 225 million CERs have been registered. Carbon offsets from solid waste projects, too, will see a rise. At present, the Indian solid waste management market is witnessing tremendous growth. Currently it is valued at around $155.56 million (Rs 728 crore) and is expected to grow at a rate of around 20 to 25 per cent in the next three to five years.

My Comments:

With China already annoucing the Carbon emmision cut and Obama emphasizing on clean environment ,clean energy sector will have a run and there is where Solar sector play will also come.....

I have been writing on Carbon Credit since long.I have been bullish on this sector since 2-3 yrs as if one will go by my posting at MMB and at other places then they can see that Navin Flourine was recomended way back in 2006-2007.

Now when the sector is coming to the fore, carbon credit stories will start coming up.One other share which I have recomended is Sahyadri Ind and that was also way back in 2007.Sahyadri is also gaining from CC.

There were some other stocks which I have written here but not discussed in detail like Alufluoride Ltd,IFB Agro,Tanfac etc......these are all stocks where CC story is coming up.Torrent Power which was recomended below 100 and is now over 300 means return of over 300% within a year is also gaining from CC.

I remember I gave a call on Kalyani Forge around 80 and it has almost doubled.In the same post I recomended Tinplate and it gave a right @ 45 and it is now XR and price is 62.The recomended price was around 45.

Saw yesterday that PAE, APW President,LT Foods etc were in 20% upper circuit.Ennore Coke is moving nicely and looks still promising.

There are laggards as well, like PSL,Apar,Srie Infra,etc but they will run when their time will come.

Happy to note that KPIT Cummins is in for run and so is Venus Remedies.

Heidleberg Cement,Prism Cement are 2 cements stocks which I have recomended and needs to be keep watch on.One can buy in small quantity and buy more on dips.

Kale Consultancy is looking good still and one can still take exposer here.I once recomended Indsil Hydro as well some couple of months back and is looking promising as well.

When my picks runs and people makes money I feel very happy that someone is earning from my picks.I hope readers must be benifitting from my picks .....I have tried my level best to write here with all the constrainst I have .Believe me it takes lots of my time to go through all these and coming out with a stock to recomend.Filtering all that needs to taken in account and ignoring what needs to be is a very big task.

Read my replies too....one can get something out of it always......

When readers read a recomendation here it is the precipitation of all my hard work ....that comes after so much of due diligence on my end and some times I may err .After all I am a humanbeing ...