Tuesday, November 22, 2011

"The Luck Factor" by Max Gunther.....

I have been reading this famous book 3-4 months back and I completed it.
It is a wonderful book to read wherein the Author interviews and met many lucky people and learned about their habits and how they deal and what they do and why they become lucky.
In that he writes about a stock market , a retired stockbroker named C C Hazard.He says he is comfortably rich and people ask him how they too can beat the market.
He refers them his book " Confession of a Wall Street Insider".
One of his major theme is that ordinary small-time plungers-you-and I , that is-cannot gain much by subscribing to advisory services, studying market statistics,drawing charts, listening to economics forecast from Washington,or applying logic in any other fashion.
Hazard holds that the market is an engine of emotion rather then reason, and therefore its movement cannot be predicted by rational means.
How can they be predicted?Sometimes, says Hazard , by hunching."It took me a long time to learn to trust my hunches," he once told me." When I first hit the street in the 1950's I did all that ratioanl stuff - studies the GNP and all that- but I was no righther than if I'd guided myself tosing a coin.Time and again I'd myself going against hunch and ending sorry.All the big pundits would be saying the market going up, and they'd have all kinds of neat logical reasons for saying it, and I'd bet with them even though I had a hunch they were wrong.They would trun out wrong- not always, but enough times to make me start wondering.I finally told myself, "What the hell, if these rational technique are no better than tossing a colin, hunches couuldn't be any worse."
On hunches also Max Ginther writes excellently.
There are rules when to believe in the hunches.He says," Never Confuse a Hunch with a Hope"...If hunch tells you something is true , and if you badly want it to be true, regard the hunch with suspicion.( This is true in all aspect of life)
" A lot of bad hunches are just strong wishes in disguise" says Dr Natalie Shainess.
When you want something a great deal, it is very easy to talk yourself into believing it will happen.
A gambler will tell me , I've got a hunch I'll clean up at the track next week", I ask why he thinks so.He says " Well, I've been losing so long that my luck's got to turn.I can feel it coming." There's no reason arguing with that man.The WISH is the mother of the HUNCH.He goes out to the track, bets the long shots and loses everything he has.


Make Room for Hunches to Grow:
Hunches are made of facts, but they come as feelings.According to Dr. Eugene Gendline, Many people or most are not really in touch with their own feelings.This undoubtedly is a reason why many men and women, perhaps the majority , lack well-developed hunching talent.
 
Well, it is here where in I read that sell any stocks at 15% loss which Mr Hazard said to Max Gunther in his interview .When stocks goes down by 15% he says it is in downtrend and after observing market for years I also came to the conclusion that in most cases , what he is saying is true and hence I wrote it couple of times here that sell stocks you bought if it goes down by 15% to 20% and you will be most probably right.
I will be reading his book which he use to recomend to people, "Confession of a Wall Street Insider" from C C Hazard.I have just orderd at Amazon and soon be with me.When I read the review , they were just great.

One review says:

 "C .C. Hazard was a pseudonym for a well known stock broker of the time. He didn't really want to go totally public with his story for fear it would alienate too many people, and make trouble for many more, but he was determined to get his story down in print.

His main theme was that he knew from a lifetime in the business that the game of stock investing was not really what the public thinks it is. There is also an underlying reality in the book that portrays those working in the brokerage businesses as the crooks and scoundrels that they were then, and still are now.
Also, he tears apart all of the methods used at the time, including fundamental analysis, technical analysis, the charting, and a few others. As he learned over the years, the only reliable information was "insider" information. And not the corporate kind, but the exchange kind.
His main point was that you simply cannot reliably discern which direction a stock will go over time unless you actually know what the insiders know. The public is not part of that knowledge and therefore must protect themselves from being fleeced.

In the final analysis he tells us to use whatever method we want to pick stocks (since no one method is any good anyway) and to pick stocks that have moved up 10% from a local bottom, and buy it. Then if it continues to go up, fine, but if it goes down instead (some percent) sell it. He uses the example of the "ratchet" which turns in one direction but not in the other.

If you can get your hands on this book, by all means read it. "


This review was written on 2008, means 3 yrs back when world market went in tailspin .Just imagine  what the writer means when he writes like that.....

Friday, November 18, 2011

Market tanked today....

Friends,
Market tanked by over 300 points and looks like we are going more downward.In that scenario I feel this time we may break 4700 support and drift to 3900 level.
That is scary and I know it brings shivers to small investors and all and sundry but that is what I am able to see.
Well,  with economic policy taking back seat,rupee depreciating , Oil going up, Int rate going up, Inflation still at high, European turmoils still there and FII's selling not abating , I feel we are going to see some more pain.
I am still unable to understand why rupee is depreciating and has touched 51 against dollar.Even in 2008 we didn't see rupee at 51 , even if we saw that was for short period but from the way rupee is depreciating I am seeing it will still drift down lower to maybe 54-55.Well, the reason can be high inflation in India, economic policy now on back burner , GDP growth rated down below 7.6% etc etc and that is taking toll on our market and it may happen that India can be also downgraded in a fortnight  due to lower GDP growth, inflation, higher int rate which is hindering the economic growth and non political will to go for economic reforms and in that case we can even see capitulation in our Indian Market.
When market tanks like this, it means market is knowing that something bad is coming and hence is doing that , means going down.And for me India downgrade can make our market more jittery.....
Unfortunately this time we have domestic problem along with global turmails.Our own growth is going down, inflation is up, government not able to make reforms and that is a bad sign for our market.IIP nos are not coming good, manufacturing is slowing down , how India will grow again at 9%?That is the biggest question coming to my mind.There is not a single political person who think of India.
Wait for the market to make a bottom.Let us see some positive news coming on horizen and then decide to buy something.
As I wrote in last post sell stocks at 15-20% down.If the stock is down by 15% it means it is in downtrend and will drift down more .This strategy needs to be followed in any type of market.Be it a Bull Market or Bear Market.

There is a very big fight going at Dalal Steert  between BULLS and BEARS.We all know who are BULLS and who are BEARS.For bulls they need some positive news.Positive clue and they will make a comeback . We have to see whether these fight ends like previous fight ending an era of a new bull , RJ like HM or KP or RJ makes a comeback with vengence and drove away the BEARS.As of now news are not favouring RJ and his stocks has been hammered badly in last 4 days.
Interesting fight is going on at Mumbai.The whole atmosphere become different and no one knows what one is trying to do to other.There is some anonimity in the air.Who is doing what and who will trap whom.
Whether 4700 is broken or not.That is RJ's support for Nifty and he said in one of the interview that market should not break 4700.Now Bears are hellbent to break that support.......lol.......what a fight.......when the talk comes to , I will prove you wrong, then no one knows what can happen as other will always try to find weakness of opposite camp.They will try each and everyway to corner each other .......let us wait and see who wins......

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Interview with CEO of India Glycols....

Below is the edited transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: The bottom-line which in the second half last year saw phenomenal expansion and now you have surpassed the figure for last year. Is the second half seasonally stronger for you. What kind of guidance would you be giving for the second half going forward?
A: I do not see seasonality in our business; it is more of a function of the consistent improvement that is taking place because of change in our business strategy.
Our principal focus is more on supplying to large brand like Coca Cola etc on our business. These companies have launched bio-friendly packaging, we see secular volumes originating from these companies.
In that business we see significant growth in our natural plant product division. This is a steady improvement in our business and not seasonal.
Q: There has been a substantial increase in the EBITD margins of your chemicals business – on your overall basis it stands at 23% versus 6% any particular reason why you have seen such a sharp increase and can those margins increase further?
A: I would love to see them increase further.We hope to hold on to these margins since there is a possibility of raw material cost increase on the alcohol side. I am not sure that margins would increase, we should be quite happy if we to hold on to these margins.

Q: You have a very high debt on your hands and your debt equity almost looked four times. Any plans to scale this down and could you tell us what is the proportion of debt that you have overseas and domestic.
A: High leverages is a concern. In the first half itself we have repaid some amount of debt unfortunately because of the forex depreciation we have to revalue our assets liabilities.
Our total foreign currency burden would be about 40% of its total debt- if I were to exclude packing obtained in foreign currency for our exports.
If that number increases we are hedged but at the same time because of the steep depreciation we have to revalue.
Even though we repaid about Rs 100 crore of debt in first half the benefit of that got lost because of the revaluation.
Q: Will you repay more debt in the second half?
A: Yes.
Q: How much?
A: We expect to repay at least another Rs 100 crore.

Here is the link:

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-results-estimates/to-repay-rs100-cr-debth2-fy12-india-glycols_618067.html

My Comments:
This is the latest interview from CEO of India Glycols after the results were annouced yesterday evening.
Above one can read which I have highlighted in RED bold letters that they have trimmed down the debt bt 100 cr in first half and they will again going to lower the debts by 100 cr in 2nd half which again coincides with what I wrote in last post about decreasing the debt by 50 cr every quater which I read somewhere.
That says that what I read and the figure I remembered were to the point correct.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Par Excellence Results posted by India Glycols Ltd....

Friends,
India Glycols posted stupendous rresults late this evening.

The sales went up from 301 cr to 352 cr but the Net Proft soared from 13.90 cr last qr to 65.77 cr this qr.Due to exceptional item of 26.46 cr the NP has come to 28.18 with TAX taking out 11 cr.
The cash profit was 88 cr before Int outgo which was again as high as 23 cr .
So for consecutive 2 qrs India Glycols has posted an eps of 10 which brings half year eps to 20.
If the exceptional item of minus 26 would not have been deducted then the eps would have been 20 for Sep qr 2011.
This I am seeing even after not a big jump in sales which is around 20% up.

If there is any discrepency in my reading India Glycols results please let me know.....

I don't think I need to write about India Glycols what readers needs to do.

I am expecting gapup opening tommorow for India Glycols and may remain for a while in 20% circuit.The reason is , market has not discounted the good results that was coming as it has not moved up like we saw in HBL Power but if India Glycols can repeat this performance in rest of the 6 months , I feel India Glycols will have no looking back from nowonwards.
Actually India Glycols went down today in expectation that results should be bad as it was not declared before the market get closed.

I read the interview somewhere on internet on I think ET by MD that the debt which is as high as 1400 cr they had already started trimming it down every qr and if I remember correctly some 55 cr was already taken off and he said that for coming many qr they will keep decreasing debt atleast 55 cr every qr.

Another stock from my old call, Petron Eng which I recomended around 170 and went on to touch 489 has come down now at 294 , has shown excellent results and I feel it is worth a look as well......

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Excellent Results posted by HBL Power System Ltd....

Friends,
I am very happy to see that HBL Power has posted excellent Sep qr results with Rs 11.61 cr as NP.
Sales went up by 20% and still the NP has gone up from 2.6 cr to 11.61 cr.This is even after there is an Int outgo of 21.87 cr compare to 11 cr last year.
After a long time Co is coming back ontrack and I was never in a doubt in my mind even once that HBL will not perform.I was confident from the day first time I recomended it.
I still feel HBL is a buy at this rate and on dips.
Here what we need to observe is, HBL made a low of 12 in Aug and from there it came to 18 , means gave 50% return.Market got the wind that HBL result was going to come good and hence already discounted it earlier.So it may happen that on Monday it can move up but not much and then even can come down as market already discounted the good results.
That is why I use to say, understand the market.How the stock is performing and what it is doing........

Another stock that has come out with excellent result is Geometric Ltd , my old call .From a loss in last sep Geometric has come in black while posting a NP of 29.89 cr, which gives and eps of 4.78 for Sep qr 2011.
Geometric is also going cheap at this rate and is a buy now and on dips.

I am awaiting the results of India Glycols on  Monday.

I still feel that Selan Exploration is looking good at this time and on dips.

I would like to revisit my old call Minda Ind which I have recomended in past and is looking excellent at this time wherein here also Minda has posted excellent results and is in manufacturing of  Gas kits for cars.

There is one stock which is showing excellent strength named Kewal Kiran even in down market.After making a low of 430 in Feb 2011 it is on upmove and now at 755.Kewal Kiran owns some excellent branded names in readymades which can be seen while going to its website..

Even Parekh Aluminum has come out with excellent returns and I feel it is looking good too now .


After making a low of around 65 in Aug 2011, GNRL my old call , formally known as Lesha Energy, now GNRL, Gujarat Natural Resources Ltd has come back to 116.This stock has defied the downtrend of the market and has almost doubled from the recent low.


There is one more branded name in glassware named La Opala RG.I like this stock.With standard of living going high I feel La Opala RG stands to benifit from spending on consumer front.....

Friends, patience is thy name of market.If you have no patience then you don't need to be in the market.My calls , almost all times takes time to deliver.The reason is, I identify them very early before market take note of it and hence the delay but when they run , it is seen by everyone here.

I again write here, find stocks which have given great results in this global slow down.If these stocks can give great results now, they are bound to give better results when global turmoils will end......

Sunday, November 6, 2011

My bad calls.........

Friends,
I would like to throw some light on  my bad calls today.
I have given many bad calls like Allied Digital, Rathi Steel,Ennore Coke, Nutek India, etc etc
Let me discussed it.
Remember first thing.Always try to find things on your own.Don't follow someone blindly.Mistakes are bound to happen.We are all human being.
Second, in stock market be always on toes.
Always look out for Promoters selling,Eq expansion,sales, NP and diversification of Co.
These are ares where one needs to be very very agile.
1)Promoters selling is a very very big negative for any stock.So every quater go to bse site and look whether promoters stake has decreased or not.Any selling over 1-2% in promoters holding says something is wrong .......try to find out why that is happening.

2)Eq expanasion is a second very big thing one needs to lookout for.Whatever stocks you hold, click on all annoucement on bse everyday to see if there is any annoucement from the stock you are holding and if you find one click on that and read what is written there.If Co is dilutiing eq then become agile.If the sales is not good and if eq dilution is taking place then you need to sell such stocks immidiately.eg.Nutek India.

3)Always look for sales qr to qr and year to year.If sales remains stagnant and profit remains stagnant it is OK but sales going down and hence NP also going down then ALARM BELL   needs to ring in your EARS.As soon as sales is down we need to understand that something is wrong here.Start selling that stock unless you see some reason why that happened and you are confident that sales will be back to normal.

4)If bottomline is going down then again that is a khatare ki ghanti.Why the NP went down?That is the first question one needs to ask yourself.If raw materail price has gone up then it means that Co is not able to passon the cost to consumers.That is a bad productline.

5)Alawys be on alert for any diversification in business of any Co.See what they are trying to do.If you feel that Co will not be able to maintain the new business it is time to sell the stock.

See friends,stock market is not for those who wants to buy and sit on it.Ofcourse one can do that but then one needs to buy stocks which are already bluechip like Siemens, L&T, BHEL, ABB, Areva, Thermax, Bharat Forge etc etc where the business has already been established.These Cos already have big name and hence they have no problem in selling their produict.
But for Midcaps and Smallcaps one needs to be on constant vigil.
It is not possible for me to keep writing things for each and every calls I made here that this Co is not doing good or the sector has gone out of favour etc.
So please keep track on what you possess and take decision immidiately.Don't wait for anyone.
The best thing to me to do is, sell stock which you bought goes down by 15-20% immidiately even if it is in a LOSS.Because once stock goes down by 15-20% then there needs to be real bad news coming up otherwise market(read operators) are very smart not to sell such stocks.
Once stock goes down by 15-20% then that is a downtrend and it becomes very hard to come back.So sell as soon as stock goes down by 15-20% and if feel that stock is good ,buy lateron.
The downtrend can be of various type.The momentum is broken and the momentum gets broken for a perticular stock even when there is bull market.The overall sentiment is not good of the market and hence stocks are going down.
Most probably, when a stock goes down by 15-20% then it is time to sell even if it is a LOSS.It may happen that some stocks may deceive you and come back again but they are RARE.Most probably if you sell stock on 15-20% down from your buying price you are going to be right.
Again I reiterate, this is my view and I maybe wrong.Take your own call.

Monday, October 31, 2011

MF Global files for bankruptcy after deal unravels..........

On Monday October 31, 2011, 1:17 pm

By Jonathan Spicer and Nick Brown

NEW YORK (Reuters) - MF Global Holdings Ltd filed for bankruptcy protection after a tentative deal with a buyer fell apart, marking a stunning failure for CEO Jon Corzine who tried to turn the more than 200-year-old futures brokerage into a mini-Goldman Sachs.

The meltdown made MF Global the biggest U.S. casualty of the European debt crisis, as the brokerage paid the price for the former Goldman CEO's big, risky bets on sovereign debt.

The Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing came after talks to sell a variety of assets to Interactive Brokers Group Inc broke down earlier on Monday, a person familiar with the matter said.

MF Global's collapse has raised questions about whether the 64-year-old Corzine's affinity for risk-taking finally caught up to him after a career that took him to the top echelons of Wall Street and then into politics as a U.S. senator and to the New Jersey state governor's mansion.

The bankruptcy, the seventh-largest by assets in U.S. history, is reminiscent of 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed at the height of the financial crisis. But market participants said the impact from this collapse, far smaller, would likely be contained.

MF Global traders and counterparties were left scrambling and confused on Monday, as MF Global halted its shares, but did not file for bankruptcy until well after the U.S. markets had opened.

"Ultimately it will have lost all confidence of its investor base," said Michael Epstein, a restructuring adviser with CRG Partners. "I'm not sure what restructuring it actually does. In some respects, it's a baby Lehman, in effect."

Three traders wearing MF Global jackets were seen leaving the Chicago Board of Trade prior to the opening of pit trading and floor sources told Reuters they had been turned away after their security access cards were denied.

The New York Federal Reserve suspended MF Global from conducting new business with the central bank. CME Group Inc, IntercontinentalExchange Inc and Singapore Exchange Ltd and Singapore's central bank all halted the broker's operations in some form except for liquidations.

There was little evidence of any severe ruptures in commodity markets, although volumes were down sharply as investors said they preferred to wait for more clarity before placing new trades.

JPMorgan Chase & Co's exposure for a $1.2 billion syndicated loan to MF Global is less than $100 million, a source at the bank said.

Jeff carter, an independent futures trader in Chicago, said the impact on the markets should be smaller and nothing like when Lehman failed and hedge funds had money locked up with the firm for months.

Corzine's decision to chase yield by going after European sovereign debt was clearly ill-advised and always seemed much too risky, Carter said.

On Monday, MF Global's HR department was busy making calls withdrawing job offers it made over the past few weeks, according to a person familiar with the situation.

BANKRUPTCY FILING

MF Global scrambled through the weekend and into Monday to find buyers for all or parts of the company, while at the same time hiring restructuring and bankruptcy advisers in case nothing could be done.

The company's shares and bonds plunged in recent days. In the past week, MF Global posted a quarterly loss, its shares fell by two-thirds and its credit ratings were cut to junk.

Corzine was trying to transform MF Global from a brokerage that mainly places customers' trades on exchanges into an investment bank that bets with its own capital.

But the company was also suffering because of low interest rates, which hurt profits from core brokerage operations.

It may be easier for MF Global to work out a sale in bankruptcy than outside of it, said Bill Brandt, chief executive of Chicago-based turnaround firm Development Specialists Inc.

By filing for bankruptcy, MF Global freezes the value of its free-falling notes and gives potential suitors a clearer picture of the losses they would be taking on, Brandt said.

"If I were trying to do a deal fast, rather than sell the company itself, I'd see if I could peg the notes at a discounted price and find someone else to buy the distressed notes," Brandt said.

If a sale is in the offing, the buyer may be a European bank or sovereign government, as such entities would be particularly keen on stopping the slide and maximizing the value of the notes, Brandt said.

MF Global Finance USA Inc also filed for Chapter 11 protection, court records show. Both MF Global entities filed for protection from creditors with the U.S. bankruptcy court in Manhattan.

"The real question is how many assets will be left to transfer," said Niamh Alexander, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

"Customers might move very quickly and it may be that every hour that passes shrinks the portfolio of assets that could be transferred" to a buyer, KBW's Alexander said.

MF Global's deeply distressed 6.25 percent notes maturing in 2016 fell 10.5 cents on the dollar to 39.5 cents, pushing their yield up to 31.6 percent, according to the Trace, which reports bond trades. The price had earlier fallen as low as 15 cents.

Its shares remained halted in New York.

The company hired boutique investment bank Evercore Partners Inc to help find a buyer, separate sources said this past week.

My Comments:
Well, I still am puzzled and awestuck by the way big brokerage Cos makes mistakes and put faith in someone hired from a very very reputed MF like Goldman Scahs.
If MF Global is paying the price for whom someone they hired and he bets on risky sovereign debts.Now this is  the ex- Goldman Sachs honcho who wants to make MF Global another MINI Goldman Scahs then what to say ?Is it that simple?These is what is taught when one study in school of Finance and economies?
But after all whose money it is?That is why I had never invested in MF......I will take the loss of my decision but never be able to take a loss on someone else bad decision.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

One more proof that recovery in USA is on its way........Beware BEARS.....Bulls are making a comeback.....










US Economy Surpasses Pre-Recession Level

It has taken 15 quarters for the economy to recover, which is 3 times longer than avg

BLOOMBERG WASHINGTON



The value of goods and services produced in the US surpassed its pre-recession level after 15 quarters, taking three times longer than the average for 10 previous re
coveries since World War II.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5% annual rate in the period from July through September, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday, the fastest pace in a year and up from 1.3% in the prior threemonth period. After adjusting for inflation, GDP climbed to $13.35 trillion last quarter, topping the $13.33 trillion peak reached in the last three months of 2007.
“The American economy finally has accomplished the recovery and has now entered the expansion,” said Neal Soss, chief economist with Credit Suisse in New York, who
was an aide to former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. “But the growth is clearly too slow to solve the most significant problems the economy faces: jobs and getting the public budgets under control.” Consumers reduced savings to boost purchases and companies stepped up investment in equipment and software, even as the biggest drop in incomes in two years raises concerns about whether the spending increase will continue. The number of Americans with jobs last month, 131.3 million, was lower than the 138 million workers in December 2007, when the 18-month recession began, according to Labor Department data.
The US economy expanded at an average 0.9% rate in the first half of 2011, the worst performance since the recovery began in June 2009. Growth needs to exceed 2.5% to reduce the jobless rate, according to estimates by Kurt Karl, chief US economist at Swiss RE in New York. Unemployment stuck around 9% or higher for 30 months explains why Federal Reserve policy makers, who meet next week, and the Obama administration are considering additional measures to boost the economy.


RECOVERY AT LAST

My comments:
My suggestion here for my readers are:

Look out for stocks which has given good nos this qr comparing with last yr qr or can give good nos for whole year then last year.The reason I am saying so is, when the global economy has slowed down,Inflation is at it's high, USA bleeding (means less consumption and hence less export orders),India GDP and IIP is down and still those Cos makes better profit then last year or last year qr then those Cos are ought to make better profit when tides will turn .
Here in India Int rate is about to peak out and with government looking for better policy, we are in for good times.That is what it looks like.......Bulls in India can make a comeback before anyone can have a clue of what is happening.......Our market has consolidated for a very long time and has taken excellent support at nifty 4700 which it looks now difficult to be broken.
And if there is short position in excess then the upmove will be equally sharp and huge.

 Flipkart which I discussed sometime back has caught the eyes of some FII's  and I am glad to see it too:

October 25, 2011, 11:09 AM IST

BY REUTERS
Flipkart earlier raised $31m in funding from Tiger Global Management and Accel Partners, which has a stake in Facebook.

Private equity firms Carlyle and General Atlantic are in talks to jointly invest about $150 million to $200 million in online retailer Flipkart, according to two sources with knowledge of the deal.
Although the Indian online retailing market is small now, few people doubt that e-commerce will one day be big business in India, a country of 1.2 billion people whose rapid economic growth is adding millions to the middle class every year.
The Indian e-commerce market is expected to grow by 47 per cent to more than Rs 460 billion ($9.2 billion) this year, according to the industry group Internet and Mobile Association of India.
US private equity firms Carlyle and General Atlantic will pick up a minority stake in Flipkart after their investment, said two sources with direct knowledge, declining to be named as the talks are not public yet.
A deal is being held up due to differences in valuation between Flipkart and the investors, one of the sources told Reuters.
Sachin Bansal, chief executive and co-founder of Flipkart, declined to comment when reached by Reuters. Carlyle also declined to comment, while General Atlantic did not immediately respond to mail seeking comment.
Flipkart is India’s biggest online bookseller, with over 10 million titles distributed from warehouses in five cities. It also sells mobile phones, appliances, gaming consoles, music and movies.
It generated $11 million in sales last financial year, and expects revenue to cross $100 million this year. It is targeting $1 billion in revenue by 2015.
Bangalore-based Flipkart had earlier raised $31 million in funding from US venture capital firms Tiger Global Management and Accel Partners, which has a stake in Facebook.
The company, set up by two ex-Amazon.com software developers in 2007, got its first round of funding worth $1 million by Accel Partners in 2009, followed by Tiger Global’s $30 million investment in two tranches.
The possible fourth round of funding by Carlyle and General Atlantic would help Flipkart to boost its business network ahead of Amazon’s entry into Asia’s third-largest economy, one of the sources said.
Amazon, the world’s top online retailer, has no formal presence in India yet, though a source said last month it was mulling plans to set up retail operations in the country next year.
Private equity investment in India is accelerating, as rising borrowing costs and dormant public markets push firms to cut deals with buyout firms in return for much-needed cash injections.
Indian companies signed private equity deals worth $3.2 billion in the first nine months of 2011, up from nearly $2 billion in the same period last year, according to data from Thomson Reuters.
The deals include India’s second-biggest private equity investment of the year, with Apollo Global Management injecting around $500 million in Indian steel pipe maker Welspun group in June.
India is flooded with private equity firms looking for investments — from global buyout shops like Blackstone, 3i Group and KKR, to homegrown firms like IDFC and IFCI.


‘Pranab pressured Sebi to go easy on RIL, save Rs 1,500 cr’

R Jagannathan Oct 28, 2011

A month-and-a-half before he demitted office, former Sebi member KM Abraham wrote an anguished letter to the Prime Minister alleging pressure from Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and his advisor Omita Paul to “manage” cases against powerful corporate groups which were being investigated by Sebi.


Reuters
Among the groups which were allegedly pressuring him were Sahara, Reliance Industries, the Reliance-ADAG group, Bank of Rajasthan and the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX).
Firstpost has, in its possession, the full letter written by Abraham, dated 1 June 2011, obtained under the Right to Information Act from the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). We had asked for all the three letters written by Abraham to the PMO, but the latter released only one of them, apparently on the advice of Abraham.
See letter:

For the letter click this link:

http://www.firstpost.com/business/pranab-pressured-sebi-to-go-easy-on-ril-save-rs-1500-cr-118531.html


My Comments:

NO COMMENTS...........lol

Thursday, October 27, 2011




With $160 billion support, Lehman sees bankruptcy end

reuters


On Wednesday October 26, 2011, 1:09 pm EDT
By Nick Brown and Jonathan Stempel
(Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (Other OTC:LEHMQ.PK - News) said its reorganization plan has the backing of creditors who hold more than $160 billion of claims, and believes it has won enough support to end its record bankruptcy.
According to a court filing, Lehman has locked up nine new, major settlement agreements, paving the way for what it hopes will be a smooth home stretch for the Chapter 11 bankruptcy of what was once Wall Street's No. 4 investment bank.
"We believe, right now, that we have enough support to confirm a plan," Lori Fife, a partner at Weil Gotshal & Manges and Lehman's lead bankruptcy lawyer, said in an interview. "We hope it will get confirmed by the end of the year, and we hope to make distributions early next year."
The latest settlements include six with affiliates such as Lehman Brothers International (Europe) and 56 British affiliates, and three with outside creditors such as Germany's central bank, Deutsche Bundesbank.
Creditors have until November 4 to vote on the plan. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge James Peck in Manhattan is expected to consider approval at a hearing that begins on December 6.
The plan would return about $65 billion to creditors holding an estimated $320 billion of allowed claims. Lehman's liquidation is expected to continue for a few years after payouts begin.
CREDITORS SETTLE
In September, Lehman reached a settlement in principle with Lehman Brothers International (Europe). Harvey Miller, another bankruptcy lawyer for Lehman, called that dispute the largest remaining obstacle to Lehman's emergence from bankruptcy.
The European arm will retain a $1.01 billion unsecured claim against Lehman, and a $900 million unsecured claim against the Lehman Brothers Special Financing derivatives unit, among other claims.
Meanwhile, the Bundesbank will get an unsecured $3.5 billion claim, while the German banking association Bundesverband Deutscher Banken (BdB) will get a $5.3 billion unsecured claim, according to other settlement agreements.
"The rapidly growing level of support for our plan demonstrates that our creditors understand the logic of the economic compromise we have proposed," Lehman Chief Executive Bryan Marsal said in a statement on Wednesday.
PAULSON, GOLDMAN
Lehman had $639 billion of assets when it filed for protection from creditors on September 15, 2008, a filing that was a major trigger of that year's global financial crisis.
The latest Chapter 11 plan was proposed in June, and Lehman has touted it as a compromise for diverse creditor groups.
Two groups -- bondholders led by hedge fund Paulson & Co and the California Public Employees' Retirement System pension fund, and derivatives creditors such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS - News) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS - News) -- had proposed their own bankruptcy plans before accepting Lehman's compromise.
Asian affiliates holding about $20 billion of claims have also pledged support, as has Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC - News), which agreed to reduce its derivatives and guarantee claims against Lehman by $7.5 billion.
The case is In re Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York, No. 08-13555.
(Reporting by Nick Brown and Jonathan Stempel in New York; Additional reporting by Maneesha Tiwari in Bangalore; Editing by Matt Driskill and Derek Caney)

My Comments:
We can read here that there were claims backing worth  $161 bn against Lehman Brs and Lehman has $639 bn as assest which was in 2008.
I feel that if Lehman Bankruptcy ends then there can be more money flowing to EU countries where the money were jammed through Lehman Brs and that can help the global economy in big way.
I feel that this is a very very positive development that is taking place and no wonder DOW is up by over 300 points and breaking the 12k level convincingly......

Is US coming out of recession slowly and steadily?

South Carolina took a step toward boosting manufacturing Wednesday when Clemson University and three technical colleges announced a statewide program to train technicians for the automotive and aviation industries.
The program — made possible by $2.3 million from the National Science Foundation — was unveiled through two announcements at South Carolina’s epicenters for the two industries: North Charleston, where Boeing built an aircraft plant; and Greenville, where Clemson operates an automotive research park a few miles from BMW’s expanded U.S. factory and Michelin’s North American headquarters.
At the Greenville event, executives with the area’s biggest manufacturing employers — BMW, Michelin and General Electric — joined Clemson President Jim Barker at the university’s International Center for Automotive Research.
“We are going to build 270,000 BMWs this year in South Carolina, and therefore we need a motivated and highly qualified work force,” Josef Kerscher, president of BMW Manufacturing Co., said during the ceremony.
Kerscher said he is always asked, whenever he is at BMW’s headquarters in Munich, whether the South Carolina plant has enough trained workers.
“And I can promise you we are working hard and smart to do even more business here in South Carolina,” he said.
The new perk for manufacturers arrives at a time when the sector is growing again, holding out hope for eventual relief from South Carolina’s persistent high unemployment.
The state’s manufacturing employment turned the corner in 2010, adding 3,300 jobs for the first net gain in 13 years, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This year, South Carolina’s manufacturing employment has fared even better, growing every month through August for a net gain of 8,700 jobs.
And that doesn’t include 3,750 jobs announced for new or expanded plants to make transmissions and tires in Laurens, Aiken and Sumter counties, factories that haven’t come online yet.
Greenville site consultant Mark Sweeney, who helps companies such as Nissan and Boeing find locations for new facilities, said some manufacturers with job openings can’t find the skills they need among the ranks of the unemployed, and the new program should help solve that problem.

My Comments:
After reading the above news I feel that US is coming out of recession slowly and steadily.Rest your call.......Dow closed at 11869 today here which is exhibiting enough strength for me to conclude that USA slow growth will not be too long......

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR TO ALL MY READERS AND THE WHOLE WORLD.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011



RBI is addicted to ineffective policy

reuters



On Monday 24 October 2011, 11:48 AM

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is pictured outside its head office in Mumbai November 2, 2010. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/Files
By Vidya Ranganathan
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Pride seems to have gotten in the way of sound policy-making in India, where a headstrong RBI refuses to concede defeat in its quest to bring down equally stubborn inflation.
Financial market participants have watched, initially with sympathy and then dismay, as the Reserve Bank of India raised rates 12 times in 18 months, causing growth to slump while inducing no discernible impact on inflationary pressures.
The market is braced for RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao to announce a 13th rate rise on Tuesday. Ideally, he instead would hold rates steady and allow time for an inevitable downward drift in price pressures as growth slows further.
"Enough damage has been done," says Sanjay Mathur, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at the Royal Bank of Scotland. "But they are so deep in the quick-sand that they are finding it hard to reverse course now and say food prices are not our problem."
Like most other economists, Mathur feels sorry for Subbarao. Hapless or not, the governor and his board have had precious little help from the government in tackling pressure points, such as supply bottlenecks in food.
On the contrary, much of today's double-digit rise in food prices can be blamed squarely on the Congress government's pet employment program, where rural households across the country are assured of a temporary job and a wage that is linked to inflation. That unremitting cycle of higher wages spurring higher inflation will not be broken by merely raising rates.
DOGGEDLY PERSIST
Should the central bank then doggedly persist with nonstop rate rises that appear to have little impact on inflation?
The finance ministry thinks it should. Private economists are irked that the RBI has become the government's convenient scapegoat, providing politicians a distraction from their flawed fiscal policy.
"I think that the last move was excessive and another would be bad policy," said Huw McKay, Asia economist at Westpac.
Another rate rise wouldn't just be bad policy. It would isolate India even further in a global policy landscape that has every other central bank turning dovish in the face of a euro-zone crisis and recessionary signals in the developed world.
It would also amplify the criticism, further harming not just the central bank's credibility but also the funding woes of an already fraught industrial sector.
Undoubtedly, there still are proponents of further monetary tightening in India, several of whom argue that it is imperative that inflationary expectations be dislodged for inflation to escape a self-fulfilling momentum. And monetary policy is the best tool for that.
The 3.5 percentage point rise in policy rates since March 2010 has had some desired outcomes -- money supply growth has fallen, a bubble-like property sector has cooled, inflation is high but not rising and loan growth is much lower than it was at the beginning of the year.
BIG BLOW TO GROWTH
Despite being forewarned that the central bank was prepared to sacrifice some growth until inflation came under control, economists, businesses and consumers alike have been shocked at how big a blow policy has dealt to sentiment and demand.
Industrial output growth has slowed to low single-digits, banks are in distress as loan demand stagnates while their cost of funds soars as depositors shift money from cash to time-deposits paying a whopping 10 percent. The investment that the economy needs to preserve its still reasonable overall growth has nearly stalled.
The policy approach was right initially, say analysts, but not the way it was communicated. Quite possibly, analysts suspect, the RBI stumbled because of the conflicting demands of its rather wide mandate, encompassing growth, price stability and the efficiency of the financial system.
To CLSA economist Rajeev Malik, the RBI's credibility was hit during the long tightening process by the way it "actually revised up its inflation forecast despite more interest rate rises."
Another drawing flak is the RBI's medium-term inflation target of 4 to 5 percent. The wholesale price inflation measure used by the central bank has exceeded 5 percent every month since early 2006.
Likewise, it seems stuck in a time warp with its forecast of 8-percent-plus economic growth. Malik fears India is on the cusp of sub-seven percent growth, almost a hard landing for the world's second-most populous nation.
"Admittedly, there are several things that are not in RBI's control. But surely more effective guidance is not one of them," Malik wrote recently.
CONDITIONING THE MARKETS
Things could have been done differently. For instance, by raising rates at every 6-weekly meeting this year, the RBI has conditioned the markets into anticipating one each time, and into interpreting any pause as a policy shift. It has displayed impatience in expecting rate rises to traverse through a $1.6 trillion economy in just six weeks.
It could have paused in September , when by its own admission inflation would have eased within a few months and global growth was a worry.
But it went on to say that "with the likelihood of inflation remaining high for the next few months, rising inflationary expectations remain a key risk. This makes it imperative to persevere with the current anti-inflationary stance."
September 's quarter point rate rise was unnecessary, says Westpac's McKay, as it meant even more risk to the growth-inflation trade-off, when a mere bias to tighten would have sufficed.
The use of words such as "imperative" and "persevere" by the central bank "reeks of puritanical stubbornness" and shows a disturbing potential for self harm, McKay observes. "The RBI seems to have elevated this decision to a moral principle."
(Editing by Richard Borsuk)

My Comments:
I don't think I have to write much here except that I have been writing about it since long that raising rates makes no sense.......which even now the world is saying about it and finance people are talking about.
Recently Brazil didn't increase the rate saying we can't hinder the economic growth of the country for inflation.
In one para I have underlined one sentence in red which says that RBI has forecasted hihger inflation even after rate hikes.....that is not economics....as one can rightly say that RBI has lost the credibility in the sense that even though RBI keep on increasing rates the forecast made themselves , the RBI, that inflation will rise.......now then what is the meaning for increasing the rate if in near future or even 2 qr down the line the inflation will not come down.
That is a flawed policy and as somewhere written , Subbarao has no alternative but to budge down in front of politicians who has not been able to increase the supply.
Congress has make the hell of a situation.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

A Case of unfriendly management....Crompton Greaves......

Angry shareholders force Crompton to sell its aircraft

Moneycontrol Bureau
The aircraft which
Crompton Greaves bought for Rs 270 crore in FY11 will be sold by December learns CNBC-TV18 from sources. The company had upset its institutional investors by acquiring the aircraft at a time when its margins were under pressure.
Since then the company has seen its stock nosedive 41% underperforming the Sensex by 29% in the last two quarters. Yesterday, the company reported a sharp decline of 45% in its net profit at Rs 116.60 crore for the July-Sept quarter due to high interest cost and margin pressures which continue to dent the company's profitability even in the second quarter.
It may be recalled that the management of Crompton Greaves faced some tough question from investors in the company’s annual general meeting in July about its purchase of aircraft. Investors were miffed that the company bought an aircraft worth 270 crore when its net profit in FY 2010-11 was about 70 crore. Some company officials described the purchase as 'investment' which did not augur well with investors.
However, analysts believe the purchase of aircraft by the company remains an overhang for the stock. Crompton’s capital expenditure more than tripled in FY11 to Rs 440 crore, partly on account of Rs 270 crore ‘investment’ in an aircraft. This, coupled with higher working capital, resulted in return on equity falling from 41% in FY10 to 34% in FY11.


My Comments:
I have been writing since long that there is no good management or bad management.It all depends how the Co is doing and market likes Cos which is turning around.
While giving examples for bad management and still market gave thumbs up I have given example of Crompton Greaves that Thapars were never investor friendly and still as the Co turn arounf market gave a high valuation.
The above news vindicates my belief that Thapars were never investor friendly .They bought Rs 270 cr Aircraft in 2011 even though they were knowing that profit margin are going to get squezed.
Institutional investor has forced them to sell that Aircraft.
Birla's are never good paymaster.They never gives Bonus.Very conservative management.Never makes shareholder happy but still one can see that Grasim is quoting at Rs 2320.This stock has almost not at all corrected with the large cap.
What is there in Grasim?Sales is Rs 4645 and Mcap is 21275.That means Mcap is almost 5 times the sales and hence Grasim is overvalued but still with conservative management still Grasim is showing great strength.
I can give scores of examples where market gave huge discounting to bad management.
I do not believe in Bad/Good Management.Co which starts making profit is good.Co which is making a turnaround is good.Go ahead and buy them and sit on it and wait for your turn to come.
When I write wait for your turn to come I mean let market take note of it and when I say let market take note of it, I mean let operators start take interest in it .........

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Navin Flourine declares another stupendous results.....

Friends,
Navin Flourine has come out again with excellent results and thereby keeping in line with what I have projected.
The Sep 2011 results shows a NP of 58.82 cr on 9.75 cr eq which gives an eps of 60.26 and Co declared an interim Div of 85% .Hence the first half or first 6 months eps lands at 120.
The reserve and surplus shows Rs 433 cr on an eq of 9.75 which we can say that the BV is over 450.
Even Petronet LNG which I have recomended for LT has come out with excellent results and can be accumalated now and on dips.
Tips Ind has also come out with excellent results.
Indag Rubber has also come out with an excellent results and can be looked upon for buying.

Just read about Venus Remedies getting awarded with Gold Category as "Patent Award" by Pharmexcil.
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/Venus_Remedies_Ltd_051011.pdf

This has been awarded only to Bharat Serrum, Glenmark Pharna and Torrent Pharma.Venus is make great strides.......accumalate is my call now and on dips......

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Greece's fiscal mess, all thanks to Goldman Sachs: YV Reddy...

Friends,
I have just comeupon this interview from our restwhile RBI Governor which link I am pasting here for readers to read.
It is a long interview of 5 pages and hence I am not pasting it here.
I think Mr Reddy has given an excellent interview how the PIIGS crisis has happened and readers will be able to know all about PIIGS crisis ans all...




...http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/greece39s-fiscal-mess-all-thanks-to-goldman-sachs-yv-reddy_599822.html#toptag


I know I was critic about Y V Reddy about his steps taken in 2007 and 2008 but after I heard him once at Time Now or HT 6 months or so back  I got the impression that he was somewhere right in doing so.
I am impressed by his understanding the problem and his reasoning about debt problems and sovereign  crisis.He deals with each and every minute details of how it happened and how it can get cleared.Excellent indepth analysis from an excellent Financial Wizard.
I would like my readers to read well what Dr Y V Reddy's says about Agrarian crisis.He talks about supply and he talks about farmers leaving farming as they are not making money and thousands of acres of land are now laying uncultivated.
I doono what the government is doing.If thousands and lacs of acres of farming land will remain uncultivated how the inflation will get tamed?I have been writing about it since long that raising Int rate is not the solution.The supply should come for taming inflation.
 In India our biggest problem with any political party is, they just wants to make money as soon as possible and that too not in crores but in lac crores .Scam in mining takes away lacs of crores and no attention is given on making the farming more productive using new technology etc.
The thing which we are missing is patriotism.We don't love our country.Only lower middle class and poor people love our country.Politicians and rich people and upper middle class has nothing to do with it........we just come out and start speaking about India and how it is a great country.
I ask how many tried to give good salary to their Kamwali bai who comes to work at your home for washing cloths and cleaning dishes?How many gave a paid holiday to them even once a months?

Somewhere Mr Reddy speaks:

"
A: There are a number of issues. There are two issues. One is the cost of cultivation and second is the risk. Today for the farmer, he is not assured supply of water and there is no recourse if he doesn’t get water from irrigation. There is no supply of power assured and the crops fail if the power does not come. There is no guarantee of the quality of the seed, there is no guarantee with regard to the quality of the pesticide, there is no quality control and there is no recourse so he is facing all these risks."

What is this?Which progress India is talking about?What are we arguing at?We just justify our arguements.Nothing else and that is not a solution.We are way way back then developed countries and for 2-3 decades or more I don't think we can ever even reach nearer to them.
We are living in an Illusion.Illusion of becoming the next super power and become number 1 or number 2......

India is not Mumbai, Delhi, Calcutta or Madras.India is remote part of Bihar, Bengal, UP, Jharkhand etc where woman has to go miles to fetch waters in pot putting on head.
Sitting in your home and argueing for India makes no sense.When there is a crisis of surviving,jab khana durlabh hai, pani durlabh hai, wahan koi padh sakta hai kya?Sabse pehla kam jab bachha bada hone lagta hai wo majuri karna suru kar deta hai taki usko khana mil sake, phir wo padhega kab?In remote areas where are the schools?Rehne ka thikana nahi wo kya padhega?
Our state is power deficient, our state , India, is water supply deficient , our state is lacking in growing grains and foods, our state is lacking in planning, our state is lacking in removing poverty........the only things we are excellent in is scams and agruing.Making statement and allegations.
Well, for sake of arguements we can argue but that makes India not great.

Again I am quoting Dr Reddy in same interview:

"
So my first preference therefore is the issue should not be how we go into double digit growth, but how should we increase the productivity. Secondly, the productivity growth is not with reference to what we were two years back, but where the world will be two years from now. We should look at how we are able to compete with the productivity growth in the rest of the world.

Therefore, first we have to make an assessment of the way the rest of the growth productivity is increasing, then how to increase the productivity growth. You may require increasing productivity growth just to maintain a current potential output because the world is moving up."

He emphasize on productivity.Now do our politicians know what is meant by productivity?What amendments they needs to make so that productivity increases?Do they kow we have to compete with the rest of the world in productivity space and what does it mean when it comes to , compete with the world?Compete with world on productivity means lots of planning, lots of execution in time, projects needs to be completed in time and hence no overrunning of cost.
These are the parametres which the developed countries has sticked to as they know very well that if they lack in anyone of these Viz; Planning, Executiuon, completing project in time then it is waste of time and money.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Scam 2.0: $40 bn of black money may have come back to India

On Tuesday, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar flagged off Lal Krishna Advani’s Jan Chetna Yatra, one of whose aims to is pressure the government to act against corruption and bring back the black money stashed abroad.
Here’s a thought: Maybe Advani can take a break and chat up some smart cookies in Mumbai during his yatra. It seems some of the black money has already come back and is nesting in our own backyard. It is sloshing about in the stock markets and bank accounts.
Here’s the stunner: The amounts involved could be as large as $40-45 billion and this is money that came back just in one year, 2010-11.
Three analysts from Kotak Securites have probably struck paydirt in unearthing a scam that will be bigger than the 2G, Commonwealth and multiple illegal mining scams put together.
Howzatt?
Well, the trio—Sanjeev Prasad, Sunita Baldawa and Amit Kumar—have been poring over our export numbers and foreign investor inflows and have proved that it just does not add up. And if it does, maybe all the fuss kicked up about Swiss banks and illegal funds abroad has sent black money scurrying back to home base.
India, it seems, is the ultimate safe haven for Indians’ black wealth.
Of course, Messrs Prasad, Baldawa and Kumar do not put it quite that way. This is what they say in a research report dated 10 October:
“Our study of exports data of major engineering companies (including automobiles and metals) shows that the increase in their exports does not reconcile with the steep increase in official exports data. In fact, the gap is quite substantial.”
How substantial? The official export data shows 79 percent year-on-year export growth in 2010-11. Exports by engineering companies in the BSE 500 (the cream of India Inc) show just 11 percent growth. If you want to know the difference in dollars, the engineering export jump accounts for $30 bn (up from $38 billion to $68 bn). The figures for the BSE 500 show a jump of just Rs 61 billion (rupees, not dollars). Converted at the rate of $ 1= Rs 44, this is just $1.38 bn.
Where did the rest of the $28-and-odd billion come from?
From itsy-bitsy small engineering companies that are not in the BSE 500? Or was so much of illegal ore mined and sent by the Reddy brothers and their ilk in Goa, Odisha, Karnataka, and Jharkhand?
Or, as the Kotak trio suggest, could be it all be overinvoiced exports? The report says:
“Some reports have alleged that some individuals may have been compelled to bring back funds through the official route by simply overinvoicing exports or even resorting to fraudulent exports thanks to (1) increased international scrutiny of unaccounted funds in bank accounts in Switzerland and other financial centres, and (2) heightened debate in India about action against unaccounted overseas wealth.”
The Kotak report offers two “egregious” examples as exhibits A and B in its effort to show that something’s clearly wrong. In 2010-11, exports of metals and metal products soared from $13 bn to $ 29 bn. But figures for 22 such companies in the BSE 500 show a growth of just Rs 37 bn (yes, rupees again, not dollars). This growth is less than $1 bn. So how did overall exports of metal and metal products rise $16 bn?
Egregious example B relates to “copper articles” whose exports grew by a whopping four times or more from Rs 8,500 crore to Rs 36,700 crore. How did this miracle happen in a metal India is not known to export normally? China apparently bought a whole lot of it.
So there is a strong possibility of there being a China angle to the skulduggery as well. Are the Chinese in cahoots with Indian black money vendors? Is China an alternative safe haven for Indian crooks?
The second route used by the black moneymongers is possibly the foreign institutional investment (FII) route. The Three Kotak Musketeers have smelt a rat here, too.
According to them, 2010-11 foreign investor flows added up to $22 billion, according to official figures. But a cross-check with international sources like exchange-traded funds and EPFR Global (which tracks $ 15 trillion in global investment flows) shows that not more than $4.5 billion came to India. Though it is obvious that EPFR data is not 100 percent foolproof, since its sometimes excludes sovereign and private equity funds, the gap of $17.5 billion is simple too huge to be explained by normal data omissions.
Drawing a cautious conclusion, the Kotak trio calls for better disclosures by FIIs in view of the implications for India’s foreign exchange reserves and balance-of-payments. “More extensive disclosures could well counter any potential concerns that flows could be camouflaging (1) hot money/illicit, unaccounted or black money from overseas accounts of resident Indians, and (2) high levels of proprietary positions of global investment banks, and (3) round-tripped money from Indian companies.”
Put another way, there is a strong possibility that hot money has flowed back into India as things have gotten hotter abroad. In recent months, the Swiss authorities have signed deals with UK and Germany to levy a tax on accounts held by UK and German nationals. In India, the finance ministry has been waffling about double-tax treaties and ruling out amnesty schemes when they could have done the same deal with the Swiss banks. At worst, we would at least have got some additional revenues.
Firstpost has reported on how there is the growing possibility of international whistleblowers publishing lists of Indans with accounts in Swiss banks, which could unmask many politicians, film stars, and even cricketers.
Firstpost has also published several reports on black money, and reported on how the Indian economy had suddenly become an export tiger by showing huge leaps in exports to China, Hong Kong and the Middle East, among other places. In 2011-12, we have seen 53 percent growth in exports (April-August), with July alone showing a spectacular 81 percent.
The unreality of these figures has been clear for some time now, and Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar has been predicting a slowdown for a few months now. In August, he said he expected a slowing of exports “with almost immediate effect” and that India “would be lucky” to achieve 20 percent export growth in 2011-12, The Financial Express reported.
Far from scripting a huge export success story, the government is working on policies to assist exporters.
Quite clearly, officials know something about the export boom that the official figures do not tell.
Looks like the Kotak Trio have done what the finance ministry could not: find out where the money is. It is here – at least a huge chunk of it.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Helen Keller.......1880-1968

My dear Friends,
Has anyone heard this name ?It looks like a name of yesteryears Hollywood actress you don't know?A name of a celebrity or a name of an activist who has done great things for human mankind?
Trying to scartch your head and try to recall this name?............She was even bigger then any Hollywood actress or any celebrity from any field of life.....
I know this is a very tuff question to answer.Just for 5 mins, and I mean 5 mins imagine you are blind......just think on it and try to close your eyes for 5 mins when you are completly awake and try to do something you wants to do......well, being blind or acting like a blind for even 5 mins will suffocate you.It is hard to imagine what if we are blind.
Ok now the next thing.Imagine you are deaf as well......means you can't listen when someone speaks.Ok, do this way.Just try to become deaf and stay for 5 mins.Again the same result.You can't remain deaf for 5 mins and more.
Now this is a story , a true story of a Lady named Ms.Helen Keller.She got blind and deaf at the age of just 19 months due to some fever and she lost the hearing and seeing senses.She became blind and deaf.
Now if someone is blind and still not deaf then one is able to atleast listen what someone is speaking and can learn speaking but when someone is deaf and can't listen what someone is speaking it is impossible to learn to speak and Helen Keller did that with the help of her mentor Sullivan.
It is an amazing story of Helen Keller who graduated in Arts in 1904 and just imagine that was a hundred year back when there was no such instrument when one can learn such things.
The film "Black" , which Sanjay Leela Bhansali made with Rani Mukerjee and Amitabh Bachhan was based upon it but for the real story one need to read about Helen Keller Autobiography.
I still keep on getting amazed how a little girl of 6 yrs when introduced to her teacher Mrs Sullivan have reacted and I must give hats off to the teacher for her patience.

I think here is where the woman patience comes in work. The Almighty has put so much patience in woman that if they decide to do something they can achieve anything.The thing is they need to decide and that's it.Once they decide what they wants they can achieve everything they wants to.The basic thing is the power , the strength they possesses needs to be channalised.Sometimes they themsleves find the way ,sometimes some friends inspire them, sometimes something happens in their life and decides to prove herself but it should come out.

Helen Keller was honoured by all over the world for her great achievements and she visited many countries.She travelled India in 1955.
In 1962 , there was a film made under the name "The Miracle Worker" on Helen Keller and that was a classic film undersigned by critics.I am hoping of seeing that movie while ordering from Amazon.It is said that people saw it for 10 times 12 times and still they keep on seeing it.
Well,it is very easy to say ,that what Helen Keller did was out of world but when such things comes on us how we will react no one knows.The best and marvelous part about Helen Kellers life is, she not only learn to speak but learn to speak different languages.
Go and google ...write "Helen Keller" and read whatever you can.



Helen Keller (1880 - 1968)
US blind & deaf educator [more author details]

Keller with Anne Sullivan vacationing at Cape Cod in July 1888

Helen Keller sitting holding a magnolia flower, circa 1920



Photos of Helen Keller and Those She Touched


Helen Keller and Alexander Graham Bell
 
 Helen Keller and Those She Touched

Helen Keller and Mark Twain, circa 1899
 
Helen Keller and Those She Touched

Helen Keller with President Eisenhower, circa 1955
 
Helen Keller and Those She Touched

Helen Keller meets with Prime Minister Nehru, circa 1953
photo credit: Punjab Photo Service (New Delhi, India)
Showing quotations 1 to 24 of 24 total

Although the world is full of suffering, it is full also of the overcoming of it.
[info][add][mail]
Helen Keller
Character cannot be developed in ease and quiet. Only through experience of trial and suffering can the soul be strengthened, ambition inspired, and success achieved.
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Helen Keller
College isn't the place to go for ideas.
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Helen Keller
Everything has its wonders, even darkness and silence, and I learn whatever state I am in, therin to be content
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Helen Keller
I do not want the peace which passeth understanding, I want the understanding which bringeth peace.
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Helen Keller
Life is either a daring adventure or nothing. Security does not exist in nature, nor do the children of men as a whole experience it. Avoiding danger is no safer in the long run than exposure.
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Helen Keller
Literature is my Utopia. Here I am not disenfranchised. No barrier of the senses shuts me out from the sweet, gracious discourses of my book friends. They talk to me without embarrassment or awkwardness.
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Helen Keller
Many persons have a wrong idea of what constitutes true happiness. It is not attained through self-gratification but through fidelity to a worthy purpose.
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Helen Keller
Many persons have the wrong idea of what constitutes true happiness. It is not attained through self-gratification but through fidelity to a worthy purpose.
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Helen Keller
Never bend your head. Hold it high. Look the world straight in the eye.
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Helen Keller
No pessimist ever discovered the secret of the stars or sailed an uncharted land, or opened a new doorway for the human spirit.
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Helen Keller
One can never consent to creep when one feels an impulse to soar.
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Helen Keller
People do not like to think. If one thinks, one must reach conclusions. Conclusions are not always pleasant.
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Helen Keller
Self-pity is our worst enemy and if we yield to it, we can never do anything good in the world.
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Helen Keller
Smell is a potent wizard that transports you across thousand of miles and all the years you have lived.
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Helen Keller
The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched. They must be felt within the heart.
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Helen Keller
There is no king who has not had a slave among his ancestors, and no slave who has not had a king among his.
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Helen Keller
To me a lush carpet of pine needles or spongy grass is more welcome than the most luxurious Persian rug.
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Helen Keller
We could never learn to be brave and patient, if there were only joy in the world.
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Helen Keller
When one door of happiness closes, another opens; but often we look so long at the closed door that we do not see the one which has been opened for us.
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Helen Keller
When we do the best that we can, we never know what miracle is wrought in our life, or in the life of another.
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Helen Keller
The highest result of education is tolerance.
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Helen Keller, 'Optimism,' 1903
Science may have found a cure for most evils; but it has found no remedy for the worst of them all - the apathy of human beings.
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Helen Keller, My Religion, 1927
Security is mostly a superstition. It does not exist in nature.... Life is either a daring adventure or nothing.
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Helen Keller, The Open Door (1957)