U.S has gone from 14000 to 12500.! we've slipped from 21000 to 15000...wonders which country is in recession!.

Friends,
Well, writing after a long time.
Readers asked me again for a fresh BUY list....but I refrained from doing it at that time as I was seeing more downside and that has happened ultimately.
Well,looking at the Indian Market,it seems that Indian economy is on a slow down or recession edge rather then US economy......Lol....The reason is , while Dow went up for twice for 400 points each in almost a week ,Sensex still went down and down......
--------------U.S has gone from 14000 to 12500.! we've slipped from 21000 to
15000..!! .........wonders' which country is IN RECESSION...!!?
Well, it was obvious that Dow went up because some steps were taken for the Financial Sector there and Ben gave more money to help mortgage crisis...and tried to let the Banks come out from mortgage crisis.....and on the back of that Dow moved up twice over 400 points......but Sensex didn't exhibit the positive of Dow......
It means that either
1)The pessimism is so large that no one is still ready to take a call on Indian market and are waiting for more positives...or
2)The bears are trying to break the market without looking at the prices.....with the help of some FII's and with some insiders news of selling to come in face of , e.g.Bear Stern going Bankrupt.....as we all saw that Bear Stren sold Rs 1000 cr to make up the loss in US..
but the anamoly is, that didn't affect Dow to rise when measures were taken for Bear Stren debacle and Dow went up, while our market drifted lower and lower.Since last two days Dow is moving up......today also it is Dow is up by 233 points at 2.50 pm , just 10 min to go for closing bell,means Dow will end in Green....
One thing is clear in my mind and that is if , Market ignores bad news constantly and goes up, means it is over heating and hence a downfall is imminent,but it is also true that if market ignores Good news and still goes down, it means the fall is unnatural/or castigated and hence the end is also near for Bear phase....
Hence it can be derived from the above scenario that either Pessimism has surounded the Indian Market or Bear are over doing and in both circumstances , whenever the market will take above turn, it will be vicious......and Bear again will be slaughtered in a big way......
The breakdown of prices in Indian Market is taking place at a very low vol...hence whenever the buying will come ...it will react like a spring......
US economy is growing at 2-2.5% rate and is on edge of a slowdown or recession..while Indian Economy is moving at 9% growth and may slow down a bit to 8% or 7.5% ..but still it will remain No2 fastest growing economy in the world....
As I have written in the heading, is it the Indian Economy going in for recession or slow down or recession or US is still unanswerable.....
Well, One of my reader, Mr.Ahmed has claimed that he wrote about the down trend well in advance and he also pasted what he wrote in past...
I have written the word, "he claimed", because he has reiterated that what he wrote came out true and that too 3-4 times he ahs written this ......It means that from now onwards, Mr.Ahmed will write when will the market go up and how much will it go up and that too in how much time.....as he has also written that for 3 months we will be in a Bear Phase......
I salute the mastery of Mr.Ahmed ..........
I am glad to know that atleast one of my reader is a Master in predicting the course of market and I would request Mr.Ahmed to please guide us on the fututre course of the market, when one have to sell and when one has to buy.......so that none loose money in stock market.......I hope he will enlightened us here......as he is doing now writign about his prediction..........
Hence I would like to suggest my readers that please sell everything now, if they wants to follow Mr.Ahmed as 12300 is yet to come and hence still many water has to be flown before that....At sensex 12300 , I think still the prices will be atleast 30% down from now....and hence selling now and buying at 12300 will be a profitable trade.......
And , Last I would request Mr.Ahmed to write what he thinks about the market when it reaches 12300....I hope he will come out with some future projections , like how will be market from thereon and whether we will see the new high or not or are we going for more down side like , 9000 or will consolidate , whether Indai will be slowing down, or whether we will go in for a recession or what...for how many months will this take for the market to come up....and many how months market will consolidate etc etc........
I hope as Mr.Ahmed has written 3-4 times about his predictions coming true, he will also write what will happen next..............

Again.......

Friends,
I again caution to all of you that please refrain from buying anything in market untill March end...Just become passive.......and see what market is doing and where it is going.....
No need to panic as well.This is part and parcel of stock market.....Sunny days are here to come.....but wait for that.....

A point to be discussed.......

BUFFETT: I would tell people if they worry what the market does on any given day, they shouldn't be buying stocks.

Dear Rajeevbhai,
Please throw light on one development, which i am not able to justify. Till Jan 15th, the all stock mkts, Crude, Gold, Non ferrous Metal, steel (Each comodities) were almost rising togather.The US slow down, sub-prime issue were here since last August but our stock morket was enjoying bull ride with all the comodities till mid Jan. They all were ignoring above issues.But from Feb onwards, surprisingly, all comodities are near to their all time high prices (Gold, Crude, Copper, ALuminum & few Agro products) but our stock mkt is on reverse trend. Globally, the volume of stockmarket is very less compared to the volume of Comodity Mkt. Why did stock mkt started to move in oposite direction to major comodities and all news media, brokers, etc are making hype of Slow down?Please make me understand.Regards,


Well Friends,
I have been asked the following questions and I thought it to write the answer on the main page as I thought many readers may not see my answers at Comment section....but I suggest all my readers to see all comments and my replies religiously.There will always be some thing to read.I am sure about it.

Ok now coming back to the answer which Mr.Dinesh asked.....
Why till Jan 15 Stock Market an Commodities Market ran up and up hand in hand and now Stock Markets are tanking and not Commodities?

Well,one thing one has to understand the difference between Commodities Market and Stock Market. Stock Market is driven by sentiments while Commodities is driven by REAL DEMAND.....Demand coming from the consumer.Viz:Industries using Iron Ore,Copper, Coal, Silver, Uranium, Manganese Ores etc etc.....and daily consuming commodities with the people ,needs in general, like Wheat,Sugar,Oil & Gas,different types of grains etc etc....and these demands are constantly increasing world over and hence commodities will still go up.....but maybe not Stock Market....as we can say.. for eating Wheat and grains are a must and one has to buy them ,while if one do not buy Shares in stock market for years togather ,it will do....because the first priority is livelyhood.If we are not living then what the hell to do with the shares!
That is the reason lately since last Aug , Warren Buffet is buying an ailing company shares , Kraft Foods Inc, a food co....as he knows that people will have to buy food to LIVE!as he is sure about the turnaround of it.....
Well,the reason for the price rise for commodities are actually ,world is not able to produce commodities in enough amount to feed the world increasing populations and there are many reasons for that....that I will discuss another time...But I will simply put in this way that, It is a Vicious Circle....that has no end....

Hence the decoupling we are seeing between Stock market and Commodities Market....we will still see Commodities going up and up and Stock Market will be down in dumps and they may remian for more time......
Well, coming to the second point Dinesh has showed...that the subprime issue and USA Slow down were there from Aug then why stock market went up to Jan?
Well, the reason behind this is ....in Aug players were not sure how much the damage was...they thought it can be few billions dollars ....and US economy is resilent to any major drawbacks of Subprime issue...but as the things started unfolding and major loss making and writing off news started to pour in the Fund Manager started panic unwinding in Emerging Markets , where they have made money,to make up the loss in US subprime.....and the selling came in heavy which our market were not able to take and hence the strong reactions we saw in Jan and even now.....
The risk aversion view grew up and people started taking the money off from the MF's to invest in more secured Investment like bonds etc.
The Master , Warren Buffet just said that , he feels that US is already in recession and there is no need for the technical indicator to visulize whether the recession is there or not.....
So, Stock market is all about Sentiment and hence as soon as the sentiment get bad people tends to sell either to capitalize whatever profit he is having or trying to trim down the loss how mcuh he can.....When people wants to sells , it is everyone who wants to sell......adn hence we see sellers curcuits and when one wants to buy everone wants to buy and hence we see buyers circuits.....that is called Herd mentality......and market is always driven by this and those to thinks different from that makes a Fortune.............
I hope I have given enough reasons to reply the question.I may have missed one to two more .Let me see and if I can recall I will add it here.....

Don't buy anything now................

Friends,
I suggest everyone not to buy anything now.Market is looking weak atleast for the month of March.Let March pass by....
WE can see lower levels ..........and may test even 14000-14500...
Hence refrain from buying anything......
Best Luck.....If anyone having position in F&O please sell it.....
And last...I may prove wrong......take your own call.....

Rajeev

What to buy and when to buy............

Friends,

I am asked by my readers that it is now time to give a list of stocks which I feel looking good and fits in to become a multibagger in future...
But the real aspect of making money is abandoned by small investors as well as some big players as well and that is ,How will the market be in coming times, say for a year, 2 years or 5 yrs.....
The real money is earned only when one is sure about market course and that is what we have to learn.Buying and selling is easy....buying is even more easy then selling because while when one buys the price can be low but while selling GREED always grips us.....
For making fabulous return , one should be able to hold stocks convincingly.....
Have you ever saw Rakesh Jhunjhunwala selling his shares , where he has stake, now and then?Like say, Titan.....do we see RJ selling Titan or BEML or Nag Const or Punj Llyod selling today and again buying after few days?Never....means the big return lies in holding stocks...and not trading into them.....Let the stock grow, give time to prosper ....and reap the harvest.....
It is very clear that the success of RJ lies in his visioning of the growth in Indian Econimy right from 3000 to 21000 and he still is bullish atleast upto 2010.
So this is the conviction of the market trend , bullish, is where RJ has been able to succeed and made billions of rupees....It is said that RJ is not less then Rs 10,000 cr......which wealth he accumalated in last 3-4 yrs...by investing and not trading......
So, friends, take a Vow from today onwards that you will never trade ..whether it is daily or for a week.....No one has made money while trading.......
Investing is holding and not trading......don't trade for 5-10 %....if you are doing so , that is ST, then forget big return.....it shows that your mentality is to make quick bucks and that will somewhere land you in big loss or smaller loss day by day which will become big one day...in totto...
One need to put money ....you have to sow and then you reap.....if you do not sow how would something comeout without doing it.....
So the bottom line here for making big return is to able to judge the market trend and after doing that have coolness and calmness to hold stocks for 1-2 yrs to let them grow......
I have been asked to give again a list here of Multibaggers......but as i have written many times,readers must also do some homework like noting down my list of stocks I gave here and write at what price I recomended it and now what is the price....and if they are down so much then they becomes an immidiate buy.....
Try to find the last list of 21 stock I gave and also stocks which I individually discussed, like SKS Ligistic, JCT, Sujana Tower etc and see where are they and if they are down then buy it......
Well, I am disturbed to see that My call of Allied & Computer has not worked well and people has lost money there.....Ofcourse I have always written to buy for LT and hence it is just 2 months passed and the price can again come back ....
But for them I have one sugesstion and that is convert Allied Comp to Southern Bio fuel ltd and hold it for a year....
Well,I have one more suggestion.....if anyone feels that the stock is not moving and actually going down then he must be quick to sell it and convert it to some other stock which have more value to compensate the return.....It is always going to happen that not all stocks are going to run......out of 10 stocks one own,5 will be nonperformer,2 will give negative return and 3 may become multibaggers.....and hence one should be quick to analyse such situation and take decision accordingly......

Regards,
Rajeev

How to pick a multibagger....Amuthan Angappan........a blogger has copied my original writing.....

Friends,
I have been intimated that this blog writer has copied my original writing...which is as under..which I wrote at ISG(Investmentsupergrowth)gr at Yahoo gr...I have stopped writing there but it is natural that this has been copied from there....
Those who are my followers/readers at ISG Yahoo gr (run by Mr.Kukku )since long must be knowing this and must have read it.....Readers like....bsebull(Shankar)Sundara Rajan,VickyKhanna,even Kukku himslef, Chanish,Carlos ,KKP to name a few must have read it...I would like to elaborate that Mr.Kukku also writes in Money Times magazine....
But I am writing it here again so that my readers would also benifiited from my writing which I was going to write it with some more angles ......but will add that angle next time.....

This is the bloggers link:http://amuthanangappan.blogspot.com/2008/01/how-to-choose-multibagger-stock.html

How to choose a multibagger stock

1)First and the biggest preference will go to Low Equity.Because low eq. is an advantage when company plans expansion and Eq dilution takes place.Even a right of 1:1 or even 2:1 will not expand the eq in a big way and hence earning can match the eq.Another reason for low equity preference is even though the earning is not coming because of slow down of economy or a bad year for the company , then when the tide turns and with slightest turnaround company can show good EPS which is one of the most important criteria for investing as it is related to P/E.

2)Next is Promoters Holding.I have many times just invested in stocks on just looking at one parametres.Promoter s Holding, apart from ofcourse Low eq.Above 55% is almost a must , with exception in IT Sector where it is seen that you almost get very less company where the promoters holding is above 55%.I will give an Example for this.I bought Narendra Properties at just Rs 18/- at just looking at promoters holding which was as high as 72% and moreover one of the promoters was also hodling some 8% in Public holding.Of course the sector also palyed a role for me to take a decision fast.Narendra Properties is in Construction Sector.Narendra Properties touched Rs 77/-.Another is Lancor Holding.Promoters holding is as high as 72% and almost over 20% is held by FII's.I bought at Rs 166/- and now it is Rs 481/-.Both these stocks I bougth after May Carnage and one can calculate what return I got and am still bullish on both of them.Both have very low Public holding and that is a trigger according to me.

3)Sector also plays a very important role while choosing stocks.

4)Now the most improtant criteria is earning visibility.This is very important.eg. Navin Flourine.Though it comes in Chemical sector actually I see it as a Carbon Credit Story.A very very big CC story.Never try to look at inetrnational prices of CC.They fluctulates. No need to worry on that front.What I compare is if Guj Flouro a 2 paid up stock can quote at Rs.630/- then Navin a 10 paid up stock will quote much much more.The reason is both have almost equal CC to sell.But thing for Guj Flou is that they have already started to sell CC while Navin is still on nascent stage and hence it is available cheap.


5)I almost do not go for already splitted stocks.It is obvious that splitted company say, 2 paid up has to earn more to show higher EPS as it is splitted in 2 paid up.Same is the case of 1 paid up.Unless you are sure of the earning of that company that it will be able to match the splitted shares one can buy. Like Aftek Info where the earnig is coming in a big way. Actually I try to find stocks which have the capacity to give exponential earning(eg Navin) and can go for Splitting rather then buy which have already splitted and hence gives fabulous return.Means that I will not buy stocks that have already become a mutibaggers by already becoming XB or XS or XR.No use to buy those stocks that have become XB,XR,XS.Of course if even after it looks good after XB and XR then one can buy it.eg JMC Project.It is still a buy even after JMC has given 2 right issues.

6)Now comes the promoters Gr.I dont think one should look at it in a big manner.I do not put much weigh on Management.Who was knowing Narayan Murthy when Infosys came out with IPO in 1990's?Those who went for lookig at management lost the oppertunity to invest in bluest of blue chip.

7)Yes,P/E is important.eg, Garnet Const.It is still available at just around 8p/e.A stock which is in hot sector where the P/E is high Garnet is available under 10 p/e is a bargain.

8) Now comes the BV(Book Value).I have invested in stocks just looking at BV and come out winner.eg.Titagarh Ind which I bought at Rs 3/- and sold at Rs 30/-.I bought it just because I saw that price of Titagarh Ind was very very less then BV.I remeber when I bought Titagarh Ind the BV was over 30or 40 and price was just Rs 3/-.I just went and buy it.Though I am not a big player I bought just 1000 shares.So BV also plays an important role while buying a stocks.One more example I would like to give.Maestros Mediline.It' s BV is as high as 75 and it is available at Rs 18/-?I am holdong Maestros since long.

9)I use to buy everything I like buying.I do this because no one knows which is going to turn out as multibbagers. I have written elsewhere that buy even 100 shares.Even a small exposer is enough to give you big returns if it turns out to be a big big multibagger.

10)Hold the position.Hold it as much as you can.I bought MilkFood Ltd at Rs 40// and I remember I also recomended here at the same time and some of the members have bought also.Whether they have sold or not I donno , but I am still holding MilkFood which I purchased at Rs40/-Everybody knows that MilkFood is making newer highs and is at Rs/- 380.

11) Try to find all info where you have put money.This is very very important.These will help you in taking decision whether to hold or sell.

12)Try to find stocks on your own because this gives more conviction because conviction plays bigger part in buying stocks as well as holding it.If one have no conviction about the company you sell it cheaply.

13)Almost never buy stocks above Rs 100/- If you are buying stocks at Rs 500 how it can become a multibagger?

An Optimist Outlook from Warren Buffet..........

Friends,
I am pasting here what Warren Buffet spoke on USA Economy.......
Hope it will throw some light to investors Vision on US Economy and Emerging Market market there upon.....


"Eight for '08"
Warren Buffett became one of the wealthiest people in the world by making predictions and putting money behind those predictions. Every time he buys a stock or a business or some other investment, he's forecasting the future. Judging by the incredible returns of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett and his colleagues are very good at making those predictions. Of course, it helps when you can give your predictions plenty of time to come true. That's one reason Buffett's favorite holding period for investments in "outstanding businesses with outstanding managements" is "forever." After all, "We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely. "
1. Recessions can't be avoided forever.In the last few days, Buffett told that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He's not sure, however, that unemployment will go up next year. In fact, he's surprised that all the weakness we're seeing in housing hasn't affected the jobs market ... yet. Here's what he is sure about: "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot."
2. We'll survive future recessions just as we've survived past problems. As Buffett told in August, "We've got a wonderful economy... There's never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We've had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."
3. Recessions will create opportunities. "I made by far the best buys I've ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap."
4. All stocks won't be cheap. Like Ted Williams waiting for the right pitch, a successful investor waits for the right stock at the right price, and it doesn't happen every day. "What's nice about investing is you don't have to swing at pitches. You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don't have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out." You get in trouble, Buffett says, when you listen to the crowd chanting "Swing, batter, swing!"
5. The crowd will make mistakes. Buffett cites this piece of advice from his mentor Benjamin Graham: "You're neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You're right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that's the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don't have to worry about anybody else."
6. Investors will mistakenly think falling stock prices are bad."If they reduce the price of hamburgers at McDonald's today I feel terrific. Now I don't go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I'm going to be buying them cheaper today. Anything you're going to be buying in the future, you want to have get cheaper.
7. Good times will prompt bad decisions. In his 2000 Letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett compared the crowd that buys big when prices are high to Cinderella at the ball. "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
8. There will be more dancing at another wild party followed by another painful hangover.
Looking back at the Internet bubble, Buffett is quoted as saying,
"The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don't learn from history."

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Talks:...........

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Talks:

A) 'Enter the market when no one else does'
February 15, 2008
Jhunjhunwala takes the cue from Warren Buffett when he says: "Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well."
Don't follow stock picks by big investors
Remember: the market is always right
You can never be taught about market, you have to learn it
You must balance fear and greed
Jhunjhunwala says he is 'well invested' in key growth areas like banking, retailing and infrastructure, all of which are based on India's domestic performance.
His private equity interests offer more detail -- education (private schools in Mumbai), hospitals and health care, a security company, pharmaceuticals, and dredging.

B)
'Markets are like women -- always volatile'
February 15, 2008
"Markets are like women -- always commanding, mysterious, unpredictable and volatile," 'Big Bull' Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had told a gathering in Mumbai a few months back.
For Jhunjhunwala, trading by the hunches is the best thing to do. "If in doubt, listen to your heart," is what he tells young investors. Given below are some investment gems from him:
Be optimistic
Be opportunistic
Study the market thoroughly
Maximise profits and minimise losses
Invest in a business not a company
Have an independent opinion, always
Be happy with your gains but take losses in your stride
Be prepared for risks
Despite sharp corrections, early this year Jhunjhunwala predicted that the Indian markets will reach its peak by 2010
C)
'Markets plunging? Don't sell in panic'
February 15, 2008
Jhunjhunwala states that there is nothing to fear despite a sharp plunge in the Sensex this year. He assures investors thus:
Nothing has changed as the Indian market is 'deep-rooted'
Corrections, however sharp, are indispensable
Panic selling during a sharp fall is the worst thing to do
Stay invested and calm when the markets nosedive
The country is poised to soon achieve a double-digit economic growth along with an impressive corporate profit growth
This is bound to drive the bourses
It does not take rocket science to understand that India's economic growth will be in double digits
D)
Tips for beginners
February 15, 2008
And for beginners in the stock market, this is what he has to say:
Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and magic in it
Do something you love
The means are as important as the end
Aspire, but never envy
Be paranoid of success -- never take it for granted. Realise success can be temporary and transient
Build a fighting spirit -- take the bad with the good
When you see a horizon, it seems so distant. When you reach that horizon, you will realize how many more horizons are within reach
Jhunjhunwala said enormous wealth was created over the last five years because opportunities in India have grown manifold.
Admitting that gains were going to be moderate in future unlike the manifold rise over the last few years, he advised investors to be realistic in their expectations.


My Comments:
Well, I am no match to Rakesh Jhunjhunwala nor with Warren Buffet......and hence anything what I write here should be taken as what I have learned from reading such quotes of RJ and WB....

A)'Enter the market when no one else does':

We have discussed many times that ours entry should be before anyone gets in.....I gave a call of JCT Ltd,Khandwala Sec,Artson Eng,SKS Logistic etc etc......on same thoery that buy when no one is buying........if everyone knows then it is over.........

B)'Markets are like women -- always volatile'

This aspects also we have discussed in detail frequently........I have not to elaborate it.

c)'Markets plunging? Don't sell in panic'

Same for this line as well...........

Budget Rally starts..............

Friends,
Seems the budget rally has started.
This can be seen while looking at Dow which tanked by 175 points on Ben's view that slow down is seen,but Indian market ignored that news.........
For the time being , untill budget is presented, the rally will continue , taking little clue of world market..But from these one can say that whenever Indian Market wants to decouple it from world market, it can do......
And that is the bottom line......
So there is no use in thinking in that line whether we have decoupled or NOT!
I have wrote last time, sub 10k level aired by Shankar Sharma is not possible....I remember he also spoke same when market tanked from 12670 to 8800, that 7000 is possible and even 5000 is possible.......but that never came....
Friends, one should have his own thinking on market...like when SS says that market can go to 10k-11k level, one must see what can happen then if that happens?
In this massacre, all stocks were down by 50-70% from the high..now one should think what can happen if market goes to 11k?WE gets bulest of Bluechip, like say, L&T, ABB, Ril Ind,Tisco,Telco,Areva etc at 20% from the high.....can that happen?That is the question one should ask oneself....and if the answer is NO then he should not PANIC.............
I again reiterate that, whenever market tanks like it did ,this time, never PANIC......
If you can't SELL,no problem,sit quite....stop looking at prices...at portfolios...this will make you take wrong decision.....When one sees his portfolio eroding, one tends to take some insane decision....So the best thing is just stop looking at CNBC, NDTV Profit,Business papers, especially ET, BS, FE..etc.......just skip reading them...just read it for companies news...
Well, one would say, that if he do not read or see paper and channels then he may miss selling and will end in more loss....but where is the question of LOSS comes when market is tanking at 2000 points per day.....
One is feared of any massacre only if he has invested from borrowed money or taken a loan agianst F.D or shares......I advice my readers that never do any of the both....
Only invest those money which you will not need for 2-3 yrs atleast....
Alawys invest in market with money you would have put in NSC or KVP for 6 yrs....Just think that these money are as good as in NSC or KVP.....
Stock market has always given great returns in Long Run....Remember this....One has to SIT on the stocks....and hence one has to invest in fundamentally good stocks...
Remember, I will never give a speculative call.....never .....I still say that any stocks I have discussed here are buy at this time....Just BUY and forget for a year or two....
Never think for ST....never......
Coming back to market,lots of FII's buying is seen in F&O as well......someone must have shortsold and has to come back to cut that position...maybe this month, maybe next month....if it gets carried forward..maybe after that month...but he has to come to cut short.....
We have to just see what happens then.....
Well, friends , I am still sure of my targets of 28k-30k.......by Dec 08......
It is still a long way to go...we have even not passed 2 months.....

A Day after..............

Friends,
After a long spell of bear run we saw a good runup yeseterday.
I read what Shankar Sharma(ss) spoke at CNBC in Taking Stock.But I do not consider his view seriously because he is not reliable.Once he was saying that if China can have P/E of over 50 then why not we?He was damn sure of 28k then and now he says we can go to the level of below 10k
That is rediculous.....
At 16300 level if stocks are down by 60-70 % then just imagine what will happen at 9999 level?It would mean "THE END" of the India SHOW to the WORLD.............
and that cannot happen......but if someone thinks like that, he may sell everything lock stock and barrel.
Well,the wound will take time to heal and that healing process can take couple of months more.
But according to me the maximum we can see is again 15800-15500....that is what I can see.The 12k or 10k targets are humbug....
I am actually concerned about the Industrial slowdown which should not have happened.
This slow down may impair a bull run for sometime and hence we consolidate between 15500 to 19000 for some time....
It is a matter of time the growth again become visible and a new Bull run will start again and that I think we can see anytime during July/Aug this year.............
Uptill that time we may remain in a range which I mentioned earlier.
Rpower has suked Rs 12,000 cr, $3 bn , and that is a big amt.People have lost heavily in F&O.Hence all these carnage happened will take time to get healed....any upmove will be dealt with selling and hence don't be in a hurry to buy.If one buy at lower level and gets 20% quick return sell to again buy at lower levels..maybe the level where he bought...
I think there is nothing wrong with the fundamental story and hence no need to worry...
Just hold on your position.....be it Midcap/Smallcap or A gr..........
But now those who have getin at high price , the holding period will be more.......and hence get ready for that...mentally..........

Stay Invested........

Friends,
Well, seems 500-600 ponits up and down is now the order of the day.
Unless subprime crisis cools down,unless selling of US funds cools down, seems we will see lots of volatility uptill then.
It is natural that when selling will come volatiltity will be at the highest.
Well,decoupling is bound to take place sooner or later.India growth can't be ignored by the world.Moreover the US economy will also do well from second half as I have written here in past.
Many fund managers are sceptic about the decoupling theory, but time will come when we will see decoupling taking place as well.
My targets of 28k-30k are still intact which I gave here in Jan08...which could be achieved within a year .
If one must have seen, the retail participation in IPO of Ril Power was big enough to see that FII's investment though was of rs 17,000 cr, was way behind the total of retail participation in Rpower issue which was as big as 1 lac cr and issue was subscribed for total value of Rs 7 lac cr.
Here one is able to see the clear demarcation happening now between local money coming into play.It is obvious that those who will not get allotment will opt for buying RPower on listing day ,but the thing to be observed here is,the money which were in savings bank a/c come out for application for RPower and now will come to secondary market and thus will increase the stake of Public participation in Indian Market context and hence I feel that the day is not far off when FII's will not be able to take the call on our market.
Someone asked me , that some Rs 145 cr cheques went in Stop Payment for RPOwer IPO due to the recent meltdown, but when an issue is oversubscribed by 86 times at over Rs 7,00,000 cr , then what makes the difference for Rs.145 cr...It is just peanuts for the entire issue.
As I have written at the Heading..Stay Invested.........India story is not to end so abruptly......we have still a long way to go.India is where China was 15 yrs back.Try to understand what I am upto.
I have written couple of weeks back that someone sold heavily the futures of Nifty in our market and as Prashant showed, it was the biggest speculator on the earth,Mr George Soros who seems have done the damage, Viz:according to what we read in dnamoney paper.Don't know whether he has unwind his short position or not....
But the same George Soros has taken stake in Ril Entertainment.
Here I am putting that article which I read in Business Standard paper:

Soros invests $100mn in Rel Entertainment
BS Reporter / New Delhi February 07, 2008
George Soros has picked up 3% stake in Reliance Entertainment for $100 million (Rs 400 crore). The stake sale puts the value of the company at around $3 billion (approximately Rs 12,000 crore).Reliance Entertainment is the flagship and umbrella entertainment company of Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group and 100% owned by Anil Ambani.Reliance Entertainment has three main lines of business - Internet and new media, film entertainment and TV broadcasting.A Reliance Entertainment spokesperson confirmed the development, and added: "We are delighted to have a sophisticated investor like George Soros as a stakeholder in the company that operates in a high growth and high potential entertainment sector offering a complete bouquet of innovative products and services to its audience."Reliance Entertainment, under its Internet and new media initiatives, has already launched a number of ventures: Zapak, a gaming portal; Big Adda, a social network and social media venture; Big Flicks, an online and offline movie rentals business; and Jump Mobile, a mobile entertainment venture.The company has signed up frontline directors like Farhan Akhtar - for an estimated Rs 300 crore for six films - Madhur Bhandarkar and Vivek Agnihotri for production. It has recently acquired controlling stake in India's largest production studio - ND Studio. It has also initiated allied ventures such as Big Music (music CDs), Home Video(video) and animation & special effects.

Now if George Soros is so bearish on India then why the hell he is BUYING in Indian Market that too unlisted co?Well, I have again tried my best to pacify the recent shocks which market is still giving to us....
I hope , this is not the time to panic... but to buy stocks which have fallen sharply....

Though I have not to write this I still would write here again:
These are all my views and I may go wrong horribly....and anything written for anyone personally are my own view and read and understand while reading somewhere else....
I again cautioned all my viewers that take your own judegment and act judiciously taking advice from more concrete person.I am not the best judge of the situation individually...and hence one should act accordingly to his behest....

A wonderful Incidence...worth a read

gThe following may take few minutes, but worth reading in its right earnest

Thnx & rgds to all who read it very patiently...
I have read it somewhere else send by my friend, Mr.Pankaj Parmar, and I am highly indebted to him for sending me this incidence to me...........

My Commnets:
The question one should ask to himself, after reading this episode, whether one is paid more for what he does?and if he feels so then one should have no grievences for anything in his life............and I have been just talking with my brother-in-law who himself is BE, MBA...at Surat....this happened before I read the following
I told him,Ojas(his name)do you know, Bill Gates have a Philanthropic institution in which is the major DONAR and Warren Buffet donated a huge amt in it?
He said yes, he knows that.I told him, this type of Philanthropic work can only have been done by Bill Gtaes and with Warren Buffet sharing major piece....of donation....the figures were mindblowing, is it?Why it should have been Bills Gates?because he was a noncollegiate...........he has not even completed colloge.....and hence one can say he was not highly qualified for what he has acheived........hence he knows that it is his luck that has given him so much in life and that it is not his qualifiaction for which he is earning so big...and hence only those who feel that all what he is getting in his life is not his but something else has helped him in getting this and hence he should give it back to society.......
Otherwise , one thinks that what he is getting in his life is due to his qualification , that he was so brilliant that he ought to be there where he is now.............but that is not the case......as we see, Dhirubhai Ambani, Bills Gates, Warren Buffets , Kishore Biyani , Azim Premji...all are not BE's or IIT's or MBA still they made big...........


Read on:


Vivek Pradhan was not a happy man. Even the plush comfort of theair-conditioned compartment of the Shatabdi express could not cool hisfrayed nerves. He was the Project Manager and still not entitled to airtravel. It was not the prestige he sought, he had tried to reason with theadmin person, it was the savings in time. As PM, he had so many things to do!!He opened his case and took out the laptop, determined to put the time to some good use. "Are you from the software industry sir," the man beside him was staring appreciatively at the laptop. Vivek glanced briefly and mumbled in affirmation, handling the laptop now with exaggerated care and importance as if it were an expensive car."You people have brought so much advancement to the country, Sir. Today everything is getting computerized. ""Thanks," smiled Vivek, turning around to give the man a look.He always found it difficult to resist appreciation. The man was young and well built like a sportsman. He looked simple and strangely out ofplace in that little lap of luxury like a small town boy in a prep school.He probably was a railway sportsman making the most of his free traveling pass. "You people always amaze me," the man continued, "You sit in an office and write something on a computer and it does so many big things outside." Vivek smiled deprecatingly. Naiveness demanded reasoning not anger. "It is not as simple as that my friend. It is not just a question of writing a few lines. There is a lot of process that goes behind it." For a moment, he was tempted to explain the entire Software DevelopmentLifecycle but restrained himself to a single statement. "It is complex,very complex." "It has to be. No wonder you people are so highly paid," came the reply.This was not turning out as Vivek had thought. A hint of belligerence crept into his so far affable, persuasive tone. " Everyone just sees the money. No one sees the amount of hard work we have to put in. Indians have such a narrow concept of hard work. Just because we sit in an air-conditioned office, does not mean our brows do not sweat. You exercise the muscle; we exercise the mind and believe me that is no less taxing." He could see, he had the man where he wanted, and it was time to drive home the point."Let me give you an example. Take this train. The entire railwayreservation system is computerized. You can book a train ticket between any two stations from any of the hundreds of computerized booking centres across the country. Thousands of transactions accessing a single database, at a time concurrently; data integrity, locking, data security. Do you understand the complexity in designing and coding such a system?"The man was awestuck; quite like a child at a planetarium.This was something big and beyond his imagination. "You design and code such things." "I used to," Vivek paused for effect, "but now I am the Project Manager." "Oh!" sighed the man, as if the storm had passed over, "so your life is easy now."This was like the last straw for Vivek. He retorted, "Oh come on, does life ever get easy as you go up the ladder. Responsibility only brings more work. Design and coding! That is the easier part. Now I do not do it, but I am responsible for it and believe me, that is far more stressful. My job is to get the work done in time and with the highest quality. To tell you about the pressures, there is the customer at one end, always changing his requirements, the user at the other, wanting something else, and your boss, always expecting you to have finished it yesterday."Vivek paused in his diatribe, his belligerence fading with self-realisation. What he had said, was not merely the outburst of a wronged man, it was the truth. And one need not get angry while defendingthe truth. "My friend," he concluded triumphantly, "you don't know what it is to be in the Line of Fire".The man sat back in his chair, his eyes closed as if in realization. When he spoke after sometime, it was with a calm certainty that surprised Vivek. "I know sir, I know what it is to be in the Line of Fire." He was staring blankly, as if no passenger, no train existed, just a vast expanse of time.

"There were 30 of us when we were ordered to capture Point 4875 in the cover of the night. The enemy was firing from the top. There was no knowing where the next bullet was going to come from and for whom. In the morning when we finally hoisted the tricolour at the top only 4 of us were alive." "You are a...?""I am Subedar Sushant from the 13 J&K Rifles on duty at Peak 4875 in Kargil. They tell me I have completed my term and can opt for a soft assignment. But, tell me sir, can one give up duty just because it makes life easier. On the dawn of that capture, one of my colleagues lay injuredin the snow, open to enemy fire while we were hiding behind a bunker. It was my job to go and fetch that soldier to safety. But my captain sahib refused me permission and went ahead himself. He said that the first pledge he had taken as a Gentleman Cadet was to put the safety and welfare of the nation foremost followed by the safety and welfare of the men he commanded... ....his own personal safety came last, always and every time.""He was killed as he shielded and brought that injured soldier into the bunker. Every morning thereafter, as we stood guard, I could see him takingall those bullets, which were actually meant for me. I know sir....I know, what it is to be in the Line of Fire."Vivek looked at him in disbelief not sure of how to respond. Abruptly, he switched off the laptop. It seemed trivial, even insulting to edit a Word document in the presence of a man for whom valour and duty was a daily part of life; valour and sense of duty which he had so far attributed only toepical heroes.The train slowed down as it pulled into the station, and Subedar Sushant picked up his bags to alight."It was nice meeting you sir."Vivek fumbled with the handshake. This hand... had climbed mountains, pressed the trigger, and hoisted the tricolour. Suddenly, as if by impulse, he stood up at attention and his right hand went up in an impromptu salute.It was the least he felt he could do for the country.PS: The incident he narrated during the capture of Peak 4875 is a true-life incident during the Kargil war. Capt. Batra sacrificed his life while trying to save one of the men he commanded, as victory was within sight. For this and various other acts of bravery, he was awarded the Param Vir Chakra, the nation's highest military award.Live humbly, there are great people around us, let us learn!

My first post from USA.......

Friends,
I have reached the destination,USA safely, by the grace of God and by all the good wishes of you all.
Well, I would again write that , our market will be back to normal in due course of time.
I have no doubt about it and stocks which has gone down will be back to normal as well.They may take some more time , but they will come to the previous level.
That includes Allied Comp,SKS Logistic, Kir Ferro etc etc........Some may take more time some may go up early.

CalPERS says it’s foolish to avoid India...............

I thanks Prashant to bring this article to my notice....which again vindicates my stand that we are in a big secular bull run and nothing to worry.
The fall we saw was absolutely due to F&O margins call due to overleveraged position.

CalPERS says it’s foolish to avoid India; wants half of its $150bn in equities to be in emerging markets n $436bn TIAA-CREF has put in $500m
NEW YORK: As the US economy struggles to find its footing, pension fund managers are straying further afield to locate safe havens.
They are expected to allocate record amounts this year to emerging markets such as India and China.
TIAA-CREF, one of the biggest pension funds in the US with $436 billion under management, is a case in point.
“We have increased our investments in emerging markets from very little a few years ago to more than $4.5 billion today. We are hoping to increase it (further),” Brett Hammond, managing director and chief investment strategist of TIAA-CREF, told DNA Money on the eve of a week-long trip to Mumbai.
“For India, we have gone from nearly nothing to nearly 500 million today,” he said.
“We are looking to tap the potential of large-cap growth stocks in the BRIC countries. They have been doing well and we think there is room to grow.”
Bargain Indian financial service stocks are likely to be on the fund’s radar. (Likes of Khandwala sec....)
According to company officials an increase in allocations to the BRIC economies —- Brazil, Russia, India and China —- is on the cards through the launch of a new emerging markets fund later this year.
Hammond said the fund was not unduly concerned by the current volatility in emerging markets linked to fears about a recession in the US.
“We believe India has a good investment climate. As a pension fund we are very conservative. We are not the first to go anywhere but when we do make a commitment — we stay. We are not hot money. We have been looking at India for a long time and we have gotten to the point where we are very excited.”
TIAA-CREF, one of the biggest buyers of commercial real estate in the US, has designs on Indian bonds, equities and real estate.
“At this point, we are looking more at India securities. But, this does not preclude an interest in other things. We are the second biggest buyers of commercial real estate in the US. We have expanded into Europe. And, we are looking to invest next into Asia,” said Hammond who is travelling this week to Mumbai to deliver a keynote address on “The Pension Fund Perspective on India” at a CII-sponsored conference.
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), which is the largest public pension fund is keen to get out of developed market assets and into emerging markets.
Russell Read, chief investment officer of CalPERS, said at a meeting in California that it is “internationalising” its investment portfolio to score higher returns with the help of emerging markets.
“You have to capture the big investment themes,” Read told the meeting. “Our expectation is that opportunities will remain quite good overseas.”
Says Clark McKinley of CalPERS told DNA Money: “We would be stupid to ignore India, which is growing at a fabulous rate. We have a global equity portfolio of $150 billion, two-thirds of that is in US stocks; one-third of it is in international and emerging markets. There is a proposal before the board to put half of our portfolio into international and emerging markets.”
The San Francisco Employees’ Retirement System (SFERS) pension fund with assets of more than $12 billion is also looking at India.
“The big time winners are likely to be the large-cap companies in emerging market countries like India and China. There is an upside for investors who know where to look,” said a fund manager in SFERS, who felt the equity markets in emerging countries were in early stages of a first quarter trough.
___-
My comments:
I have been giving all evidences eversince the Mayhem of last 10 days has happened that Bull run is still in tact......This is one other testimony of that.....what much more one wants...............
Rajeev

Why there is no Mayhem seen in US market?...........

We have seen the worst kind of Financial debacle since last 60 yrs.That is what Mr.George Soros is saying....and he fears that it can eventually end in a global recession.....and that is why he is selling lock, stock and barrel...in Indian market....
If the damage is so huge why Dow is not slipping to a below 10k level from the high of 14k...means 30% down from high?When the US economy is going slow and ultimately will end in a recession then why US investors are not scared of in holding stocks?Why they are not selling in huge quantity?What is to be understood?Is the recession FEAR a FLASE FEAR?Are Fund managers overdoing the analysis?What is that?Are they trying to put pressure on Ben to cut rates?
I am surprised to see Why, How, and for what reason Dow is not exhibiting the bearishness we are seeing in emerging markets?If our market can tank from 21k to 15500 means a drop is 30%, when Hengseng , Korea, Nikkie, China,Russia, Brazil can sheds 25-30%, why Dow is not getting beated in that way.Here one may argue that here in EM's there can be selling of US funds and Hedge funds and hence we are showing such a big fall....but when the selling takes place to pay for the losses in USA market in Subprime Mortgage , then the selling should take place in US market as well and that has happened there also.Citi, Goldman Sachs stocks have nose dived to the extent of 60% and above and still we are seeing Dow at above 12K...that is surprising....Either our sensex calculation is going wrong or the weightage is more in certain scrip.I think it is time to have a look at calculating the sensex points.Sebi has to think about it seriously.
Now let us assess the situation.The majority of the fall happened was due to over leveraged in F&O section and that damage is done.I think we should look forward to our growth which is still in tact.I heard Ramesh Damani and Shankar Sharma in taking stocks.Though not heard word by word but both were extremly bearish I can understand about SS but was surprised to see RD becoming bearish..No doubt the excesses were there but it has been precipitated in this carnage and we are almost even back to normal...as P/E is now at 14!Wow!But SS says ,he feels we will a negative trend in our market...means bearish trend...which I don;t think so could happen....as the 3rd qr results are coming good....and henec no reason to be bearish....I only know one thing and that is good fundamentals and Bear market cannot walk hand in hand.....
I am bullish uptill 15 Mar 08 where again a big storm can come in the name of profit booking for March ending..........but I am seeing a big rally starting from 1st Feb onwards.....
Let us see,
Warm Regards,
Rajeev

God send opportunity........................

Friends,
This is God send opportunity when the stocks are down by almost 50%.I wrote in my last post that market will recover.It has recoverd though Midcap/smallcap is still out of favour.
The next week will be the last week of F&O and hence volatility will remain.According to my view,from the 1st week of feb market should start the pre budget rally which can take market to cross even previous highs.
The fall seems to be more a planned one done purposefully then a real selling.
The reasons that I feel like that is as under.
1)FII sold 17,000 cr worth stocks in Jan but didn't take out ther money fom India.If they would have done so , which in case to make up the loss in US Subprime Mortgauge,then rupee must have gone down...means rupee must have fallen to 40-40.50 level.As rupee has not fallen it means that they sold to invest in REL Power issue and the total value of IPO is 12,000 cr it is natural that they will not get 100% allotment.One can assume that it can be 10-20% means max 2400cr ...means 15,000 cr will again come to market.
2)Read somewhere that NRI's sold some rs 30-35 cr shares on 14th of Jan when there was a fall of 100 points only.They again sold some 10-12cr worth shares on Tues when the sensex fall by 400 points.
They bought 22 cr worth shares on Monday when market tanked by 2000 points and again by 5-6 cr on Tues when there was a lower circuit in first 1 min of opening.NRI's didn't buy stocks on last Friday, of last week,but bought on Mon and Tues , it means the overseas investors were knowing that the fall was to come and that too a bigger one on Mon and Tues this week.
3)One more reason for me to believe that this is an engineered fall is that,if one goes back to look at the May 2006 fall, which happened from the then new high of 12700 to 8800,it was the time RPL(Ril Petro) getting listed.That time it weas big brother listing , now it is younger brother listing.
This time the market broke down from the recent new high of 21000 to 15500.

Looking at the above reason I am of the opinion that this is more a engineered fall then a real Bear Market scenario.
And I am sure that market will get back to normal in due course of time.Midcap/smallcap are here to stay , ofcourse having strong fundamentals.
I have discussed some stocks here as also written some stocks in my post of Indian Stocks on Sale at 50% discount.The are still a buy as the fundamentals are great of these stocks.That doesnt mean that others which I have discussed in past are not.I leave what yo buy to to my readers .

Indian Stocks on Sale.....50% off.....

Friends,
A complete Mayhem....biggest fall in the history of Indian Stock market.
Well, friends under normal circumstances I would have not written anything today but for the 1400 points mayhem.
I am not worried.....well, do we (small investors) has to worry?If we are holding fundamentally strong stocks then why we should worry....Is Indian economy has gone to dustbin?Are we slowing down?Are the results came thus far, are bad?
If all the answers are in "NO" then why we should worry.....I am not at all worried by the fall...The only person who has to worry is those who has borrowed the money and has to pay them back within 2-3 months or even in shorter time.I have always written that , do not overlevearaged your position....Jitni Chadder hai utna hi pair lamba ki ji ye...otherwise you will put yourself in a very bad position....you will thereby also put your Family and friends also in a very bad position....due to the tension of LOSS you have made....while buying out of pocket......
I have always said that NEVER NEVER PLAY IN F&O...........that is the first criteria for being and remaining happy.
Market is bound to be normal by the end of the Valan......there can be more pain tommorow as I wrote yesterday, that recovery can start by Tuesday....
The reason I have been able to find for this Mayhem is, market become overbought, a single entity sold stocks in Cash market upto $3-4 bn and then he sold Nifty futures on Wed...of 53 lacs nifty futures and again he sold 21 lacs nifty futures..means he sold 75 lacs nifty in a week...and is still standing on it.....He will have to come to cover it......let us see what happens then....
But as of now I am writing some stocks which have corrected in a big way and are on a SALE with a discount at 50% and more...
1)Kirloskar Ferro.........high...101.90.....now.....55
2)WWIL.........................."........101.............".........50
3)TTML...........................".........65............"..........40
4)Sujana towers..............."..........235........."..........164
5)SKS logistic................."..............81..........."..........56
6)Flex Food...................."...............42............"...........23.45
7)Spice jet

Well, there are others as well.....
Friends ,don't worry...market will bounce back and will be normal in due course of time....I do not agree with Mr. Ahmed view that we are in for a Bear phase......Mr.Ahmed should remember that good fundamentals and Bear Phase do not go hand in hand.....Bear Phase can only be possible if fundamentals do not helps.........but it is not thus the case.....
The market was overbought and correction is bound to happen....and that happened......it is normal..only thing is it came suddenly , but that always happen...
Anyway...I am not worried at all.....about the correction.....I reiterate that there is no need to panic no need to worry.....Friends,if you have bought good stocks no need to worry.....go to sleep nicely.....no anxiety....friends......
I again write here...don't try to average when the stock is falling.........it means that you are trying to change the wrong decision.....of yours.....
But as usual I would again like to write that I may prove wrong in my analysis......remember this always.....

Friends,
Please bear with me if I do not respond to anyone's query or may not write a post as per your expectation and that is because as I am going to USA on 1st Feb ,I am busy shopping and packing things and meeting relatives and friends.
I would also like to write here that I may even not respond from there as usual as my first priority would be to get a decent job as soon as possible and get setteled at the earliest and ,I appeal to my overseas(living out of India) readers and viewers , if anyone can help me getting a decent job, they can mail me at desairi@yahoo.co.in ..or rajuidesa@gmail.com. I would send my Resume...I will be going to Chicago.
Now coming back to market,I don't think sensex can touch 17,100....
Market can still go down on Monday but by tuesday the recovery should start and it will be in same way as it tanked...get ready for 700 points up.....
Results are coming good, rather can say excellent.No need for worry.Billions of money ready to get invested in India....As soon as the market will stop going down the buying frenzy will again start..and again upper circuits will be seen...
If anyone holding good fundamental stocks no need to worry...

Market

Friends,
Yesterday was a recovery day...
Many would think that even after almost 400 points down how can I write a recovery day?
But market recovered from the low of 670 odd points and remained close by 380 points.
That is known a recovery...because on day before yesterday, market didn't recover till the end and when such thing happens it means that market will still go down next day in morning which happened yesterday.......
Market is looking good.Fundamentals are still in place.No need to worry.
Only those having levearaged position will have to think about correction.One have invested has not to get perturbed.
According to my opinion,US Subprime debacle will end by next qr.I have no doubt that US economy will again become good in next 1-2 qrs....
The election is coming by the end of the year in USA and hence I am seeing a very good runup in US market as well, where Dow can touch even, 16k to 17k figure........
Most of loss in Subprime Issue is made up by selling minor stake to Chinese Finance institution and Gulf countries investors......
Overall market is looking good upto Budget....Stay invested....

ACi ltd............Major annoucement at BSE

Freinds,
I am happpy to see this annoucement at bse today and was extermly happy to note that my Call on ACi is vindicated.
I has never doubt about the ability of this company anf being a Ewaste company with producing Laptops cheaper and also durable as Ashok Trivedi wrote.
I hope those having doubts and were asking me about this company ,about the credentials of this company is laid to rest.


Allied Computers International (Asia) Ltd has informed BSE that the service contract the Company have been awarded by a UK firm to recycle laptop parts at the Company's EHTP plant in Gandhinagar, Gujarat.The Company win is first E-waste recycle order worth Rs 10 Crore.Soon after the Company's press announcement of its plans to launch its E-Recycling plant in Gujarat, a UK firm, Open Start Ltd dealing in laptop parts has awarded ACi a contract worth over Rs 10 Crore. Open Start Ltd is to send a minimum of 5,000 motherboards in the first shipment for ACi to repair on job work basis.ACi expects many orders of such nature in the year 2008 from various parts of the world as the extended facilities are fully setup and functional to handle high volume."Our setup at Gandhinagar will be one of its kind in India and we expect many orders of such nature from around the world" says, the Managing Director, Mr. Hirji Patel, He further adds "This unit will help resolve the ever growing global shortage of laptop motherboards""With our E-Recycle unit in Gujarat, we will be able to re-cycle all PCBs and LCD screen used within laptops and LCD monitors. The Company is expected to generate substantial local and export revenue with this service in the forth coming fiscal year" says Mr. Hirji Patel.

Don't be afraid on Today's Fall............Buy Call on JCT Ltd........

As I have written in my last post about market movement. Corrections will come and go

Actually these are buying time if someone has missed the Bus...

Well, as I have never given a speculative buy call, and one should also remember that as I pick stocks early they takes time to mature and hence while buying stocks which I have recomended be ready to hold for a year or two.
Well, it may also happen that the entire story do not materialse and hence stock do not at all move or rather tank.....so be ready for such Mishaps as well.....I am writing this because that has happened with my calls.
I have gone wrong horribly at times.......Do your own diligence , search the level of comfort and then buy.....again I say, when I recomends stocks they are in a very very nascent stage as the story is just unfolding and in between anything can happen!

I am giving a buy call on JCT Ltd a Textile comp
The story of Wind Mill is developing and it will take time to mature.I would like my viewers to diggin this company and tell me what is happening at this counter and if there is another trigger apart from this.
I hope and expect that readers will give me more feedbacks as well along with querying on any stocks, I hope it would be not a one way affair....Like some Reports, Annual Reports any news that I may have missed.....which u have read somewhere or heard somewhere (that includes any targets)and whether I am not in Know.....that goes for any stocks , that includes even which I have not covered here.....
I am a learner and would not like to remain a prejudice mind......
Not neccesary to give whole text but summary would be suffice....
Regards,
Rajeev

India to see $700-bn investment in 4 yrs: Kamath.....

Friends,
Looking at what Mr.Kamath speaks and he being a wellkown figure in Finance sector,now no doubt should be left in investors mind that Indian economy is on high growth path and hence Stock market is also on high growth path and hence my targets of 28k to 30k this year is achievable.
We can see a rerun of Japan Nikkie of 39000 and even more.....in next 4-5 yrs....
Correction are bound to come and they may be in such a magnitude that the confidence will be shattered and Chartist will start giving a SELL signal and every one will be anxious what is happening and what will happen then....but we will be back on track....
I have been asked by my many friends that Ramesh Damani is seeing a big big fall in our market in next 2-3 months.It is obvious that Apr/May/June are such period where market use to go in DEEP correction.We have witnessed in past and hence we should be ready to face that correction whenever it comes.
But am not sure whether that correction would be a prolonged bear phase....we will look at it when it will come, but as I have written, don't SHY of booking profit...that is the BUZZ word...


India to see $700-bn investment in 4 yrs: Kamath

NEW DELHI: Anticipating a 700-billion-dollar investment pipeline for the country, ICICI Bank Managing Director and CEO K V Kamath has said that corporates alone would infuse up to 500 billion dollars in the next three to four years. "India has a strong investment pipeline. Currently, we are putting the pipeline at around 700 billion dollars. Till recently, we talked about 500 billion dollars," Kamath told here.
More importantly, corporate cashflow itself would account for up to 500 billion dollars and the investment needs would not depend heavily on debts, as was the case about ten years ago, Kamath said. The time period for these investments to materialise is 3-4 years, he added.
While noting that the timeframe would depend on sectors where the money is going, he said, "If it is an hydroelectric project, (it would be) three and a half years; if it is some other investment, the time frame could be different... this (3-4 years) is an an average level." The managing director of India's largest private lender said he does not see India's growth story slackening for another 15 years as there is a dramatic level of investment happening in the country.
"Just to put in context, about ten years back near 1995-96, if the national investment reached 15-20 billion dollars a year, we thought that was a tremendous improvement... We have raised the bar higher for ourselves. "It is across all sectors, all areas where we see bottlenecks. There is nothing left out. If we see bottlenecks, this would mean that it needs to be funded," he said. Kamath said that ten years back, this investment would have been funded through 30 per cent equity and 70 per cent debt. "That time you would have a large problem meeting this need and over leveraging risk consequent to that... Now, we believe that corporate cash flows are running between 150 billion dollars to 200 billion dollars a year." This has reversed the trend to 70 per cent equity and 30 per cent debt now, cutting down the reliance on debt dramatically. Noting that the country's robust economic growth was boosting the corporate cashflow, he said the corporate profit growth would be at least 15-20 per cent and there were no signs of a slowdown. Besides, improving corporate numbers, global liquidity and an appetite for Indian equity are contributing to the decline in reliance on debts, Kamath said.
Corporate India is not consuming the debt to a level seen earlier and it is the public that is emerging as a major debt consumer, bringing down the pressure on liquidity, he noted.
"The lay consumer today is probably the largest consumer. Seven years back, the lay Indian was not a (significant) consumer and had the Corporate India been consuming, the pressure would have been there," Kamath said.

An Appeal to all readers...........

Friends,
My one of my best friend has lost his father due to Cancer of throat.It was because of the Pan Masala with Tobacco and Tobacco Mava..chewing...
I have already lost my many good and very near friends due to eating and chewing Pan Masala and Mava that includes Tobacoo and Chuno...which is the most dreaded combination for converting it to a Cancer.....
Hence I request all my readers who are Eating or Chewing Mava or Pan Masala with Tobacco in it, to leave it immidiately....I have written Immidiately because there is no way to STOP CHEWING PanMasala slowly...these things are to be stopped at a stroke...otherwise one will never be able to stop it....
This chewing Pan Masala is seen more in our Gujarat State...do not know whether it is there onm South or East Region ...but maybe it is there in Mumbai and Maharastra....
Hope you all will take some clue from what I have written and act accordingly....at the earliest....
Best Of Luck to all who has Chewing habit and a request and advice and suggestion to leave at the earnest....

Yesterday was a bad day.....

Friends,
Yesterday was a bad day and market tanked by 300 points in late hrs.But that is due to the uncertainty of Infy results.
Midcap/Smallcap has run good and a correction was there for taking.
No need for worry in that space.If we have bought good fundamentals stocks they are bound to go up again.
Such correction lenghthens the Midcap/Smallcap Bull Run...as going only one way will create a big mayhem, so better they correct at regular intervels....
The biggest plus point about this Bull run which started from May 2003, from 3100 Sensex is there is always a corretion and that is making our market to run on and on and on.....ofcourse the fundamentals are intact..as without that it is not possible....hence this type of correction do not exhaust the market to succumb under Bear onslaught and the trends reverse which use to happen in past years in the hisotry of Indian Stock market since Harshad Mehta time, since 1992...
Still there are scores of Midcap/Smallcap which are available and new opportunity will keep on coming...Remember to BOOK PROFIT in your stocks as Indian Market give ample opportunity to buy again...ofcourse this may not happen in all stocks....but profit booking is a MUST....don't hesitate to book profit.....but at the time don't be out of any stocks 100% if you are sure about the fundamentals...

Charts are also ecohing my view........on Sensex targets...

Freinds,
I wrote on Sensex days back that it can touch 28k -30k....and when I read in Monay's Business Standard "The Smart Investor Guide" I felt I am going on right path and understand the fundamentals of our economy well..

Here is the write up that I am pasting for all to read:
Remember Milind Karandikar is an IITian by Qualification and is writing at BS since 2 -3 yrs.

What the charts foretell

Milind Karandikar / New Delhi January 7, 2008



What do technical analysts feel about the market in 2008? Three experts share their views.

Year 2007 was spectacular for equity investors as a majority of stocks, across all classes and representing different sectors, delivered more than healthy returns.

How will 2008 be? To know what the charts indicate, The Smart Investor gets three technical analysts to predict what’s in store for the current year. Read on to know more.

Lage raho Munnabhai
Milind Karandikar
Year 2007 really turned out to be “The Year of the Bull” as I had mentioned in my last article on January 8, 2007 in The Smart Investor. I received numerous mails following the article stating that I am trying to fool investors by giving some unrealistic projections of the BSE Sensex (20,000 by December 2007).

But, the Sensex did hit the target and fooled all those who did not trust my Neowave analysis. The stock markets would go where they would like to irrespective of what you and me wish. I am just an interpreter of the patterns they form.

No doubt that my analysis goes wrong on a number of occasions, especially in the short term, but on the longer term charts, the patterns look less confusing and future projections become more reliable.

Right now, the pattern formed is suggesting that another huge bull run is impending. The technical analysis of this pattern has been discussed in the Technical outlook paragraph.

Even though year 2007 closed with a bang with the Sensex closing above the 20,000 mark, it was a rollercoaster ride for the indices over the year. The Sensex survived two major falls of over 2,000 points in February and July 2007 and managed to close near the all-time high.

Fundamental issues like crude oil prices, US sub-prime crisis, kept on producing ripples in global markets. Many analysts were worried about overstretched valuations at 14,000 level of the Sensex and continue to be worried at 20,000 level. Some are afraid of a bubble forming but, the markets are not ready to listen. If a bubble is going to form, you and me cannot stop it.

On the contrary, majority would not agree to the existence of such a bubble. The reason being a bubble is called a bubble only after it bursts. Everyone wants the bull markets to prevail for ever. But, since every bull phase is succeeded by a bear phase, one has to be very alert about exiting the market.

Technical outlook

The weekly chart of the Sensex shows that after a huge consolidation period (1992-2003) we are in a big bull run for almost last five years now. This rally is a large X-wave, which I had mentioned in my earlier articles also. A zigzag (A) – (B) – (C) pattern is the first part of this up move followed by a connecting pattern (X-wave).

This connecting wave is in the form of a running triangle that began in May 2006 and ended in August 2007. The presence of such a running triangle indicates tremendous upside potential for the Sensex. The calculations based on Neowave theory (By Glenn Neely) suggest that the breakout from such a triangle should be at least 1.618 times the largest leg of the triangle.

This puts the Sensex target at around 27,000 mark. The breakout could be as big as 2.618 times the largest leg, leading to a mind boggling figure of 39,000. Even if we keep aside this over-optimistic view, the target of 27,000 could be achieved and that too most probably in the first half of 2008.
The daily chart shows one directional wave (A) followed by wave (B), which seems to be a diametric pattern. This pattern has seven legs and has a bow-tie shape.

This pattern seems to be almost over and the next wave (C) has began. I expect this wave to be again a directional move. Right now one cannot predict which pattern will finally evolve in the entire rally from the bottom of August 2007.

Investment perspective

The diametric formation mentioned in the last paragraph has appeared on most of the indices viz. Sensex, Nifty, BSE-500, S&P CNX 500, etc. Structurally, the patterns in broader market indices like BSE-500 suggest much stronger up move. It means that the chances are high for mid caps and small caps to outperform large caps in this rally.

But, one should choose fundamentally sound stocks from these sectors that have not somehow participated in the earlier rallies of the Sensex. There are always a lot of manipulated stocks from these sectors, which attract public attention and become good traps to lose money.

The sectors that are looking good right now are banking, steel and power generation. But, I personally feel that finally it would turn out to be a broad based rally in which most of the sectors would participate.

Finally, those who are investing fresh money have to be very cautious in selecting the stocks. And for those who are already holding good stocks for long time, my advice is Lage Raho Munnabhai!

(The author is a Neowave analyst and may be contacted at: milindkarandikar@mtnl.net.in or karandikar.milind@gmail.com)

Allied Computers International (Asia)...Ltd...annoucement at bse today....

Allied Computers International (Asia) Ltd has informed BSE that that the official launch of India's first laptop for Rs 14,999. The Launch is to take place on January 08, 2008 at a press conference held at Bangalore.

- The Company launches India's first laptop for Rs 14,999 at Bangalore Press Conference tomorrow.

ACi rolls out its highly publicized Rs 14,999 laptop earlier than promised. This entry level product was targeted to be launched towards the end of first quarter of year 2008. High-end of this laptop with revolving touch screen and tablet features is due to be rolled out toward end of February 2008.

The long awaited laptop for below Rs 15,000 is now here and for a change, its launched first in India! The ACi ultra-mini is a full laptop with VIA 1.0 GHz CPU, 512 MB RAM, 40 GB HDD and WiFi enabled. It weighs a mere 950 grams and house a 7" TFT screen. This laptop is ideal for all traveling users as well as ones which are looking for budget computing on the move.

The product will be displayed for the first time at a press conference held at Bangalore on January 08, 2008. ACi ultra mini will be first offered to users in India before starting its distributions abroad.

The Company will restrict supplies of this product region wise in order to cater for the high volume of demand expected.

"We have encountered a great demand for this low-cost laptop since our pre-launch announcement to the electronic and press media. Sale of this product together with eight of our other range of laptops is expected to push the turnover of the Company well beyond the targeted Rs 200 Crore for fiscal year 2008-2009" says the Managing Director, Mr. Hirji Patel.

More on Options..........

Friends,
My one other good friend feltra(Raman)as asked me about Options.He says that people says Options are better then future as the loss gets limited.
I agree with that, that the loss is limited on options call and puts...as one has to just cough out premiums and if the call do not click only the premium is lost.
Like say if some one buy a call option of Strelite Ind of say 1100 strike rate of call option at rs 10 premium...if Strelite do not move or go down then the loss would be 10 * lot size = amt , this amt will be lost and that is final.So here the loss is known...and hence it is a good avenue to play...
But in options people forget to look at one thing which I am now going to write.
In Options ,when one buy a Call Option of a perticular lot of a stock with perticular strike rate, there is one who is writing this call..and most probably the writer is an operator and no one else and he is the main person behind what will decide the price or premium of that stocks by the end of the vallan.Now it is clear that if he is writing call options, means selling us,at say 10, then if the premium goes down or remain there , only then he will earn and if the premium will go up he will be the looser.So what he will do, he will try his level best not to let the premium go up where he has written the call.
Now I have observed that upto 15 th on any month the premium will and can go up, but after that even though the stock goes up Premium do not go up so much.There investor get trapped.When people see that stock is going up and premium is low at 15th he buys a call option lot but then a correction comes and the premium gets so low that investor sell the lot thinking it can go even lower.
I have observed that premium almost gets eaten by the writer at the end of the Vallan...there are no buyers as tyhe vallan end comes nearer.If no buyers then your premium is gone..
So if anyone wants tom,play in Options category,he should getin early and get out before 15th .That is the trick.Never buy an option after 15th of any month.I am not saying that onecan't earn but most probably it is eaten up..unless the writer is caught in wrong foot.
feltra,I hope you will like my Options view as well...I have explained everything in detail as much as I can.....
and also hope all readers will be able to understand...
I still say to all of you, though I rarely play F&O , I keep track on all these,what happens when and how it is played.Though I have my Bank Job which takes away my whole day, but still I make it a point and learn from what I read...
Actually,I suggest or say rather Advice to all my readers that ONE SHOULD NEVER NEVER PLAY IN F&O....it is all loosing game be it Future or Options.Small investor should never never play in this sector and that too not even in partnership...

Some view on Future & Options..........

Friends,
I have been asked some decent queries from one of my beloved friend on F&O...Co-relation between scrips in F&O & to their price variations...I am pasting his queries and my answers which I wrote to him.Hope you all will be enlightened while reading it and be of some help...

Please provide me the info below....
1) Resources (papers, website links/ anything you can) for tracking the relationships between the two, if available.

A)Well, There is no such links......if it is there I don't know...

2) Trends where action might soon come and the basis on which you arrive at such assumptions.

A)Yes, here I can throw some light.

Well,MTNL,ITC, Hindalco,LIC Housing,HP, BP, IOC,ONGC , Arvind Mills,Patni Computers,Polaris,SRF Ltd,IDBI, IFCI , HOEC,Ispat, RNRL, RPL ,Suzlon,Sterlite Ind, Aptech, TTML etc etc , the list is long...can see enormous price rise within a year....

My reasoning:

These all stocks and many others can go up in a big big way....because someone is interested in all these stocks.Viz:Aptech ,Ispat,HOEC is favourites of RJ and some others are of RKD and others are of NS , KP's etc etc....

Now where I become bullish, is when a stock gets battered in big big way without a change in the fundamentals, like say,Patni..went down from 440 to 297,Wow! and still is around 330, means it was obvious that whole lot of investors getin F&O of Patni and opeartor just tanked in such a way that it went down for 150 points....Ok, now what I see is , it didn't come back quickly to 440 level and remained there for 3-4 months means operator is tiring investors and sending message that Patni is not going to run now , so get out of the counter.....as ssosn as the counter will get dry operator will take charge of Patni counter.....but there is no way to find that...ofcourse we do use to see that such and such counter is in F&O Curb..it means that 95% position is over in long and short position and no way one can buy new lots nor can one short....at CNBC and NDTV Profit channels...they use to give such datas in morning around 9.30 am and inbetween the market hrs...from that we can take a clue...

3) Website Links to scrips which go in & out of F&O and their impacts on addition or exclusion over short-term, mid & long-term.

A) thehindubusinessline also gives such data of F&O Curbs stocks almost daily,...no other site I have seen , but I can say has never tried it...as I almost do not play in F&O...But let me tell you that no stocks can go out of F&O list at any point of time.....yes, F&O Curb is possible,means coming out of Curb and going in to Curb,but Business channel always write in a confusing way...writes that eg. "Essar Oil is now out of F&O Curb"People think Essar Oil is now not in F&O....That is rubbish...once a stock is included in F&O it never goes out from that gr...Atleast I have not seen happening ...

4) Scrips where you think some of them underperformed and where you think the negative F&O returns might trigger positive outcomes in future due to either operators or other forces.

A)I have elaborated in my first answer....

5) Any other info you think pertinent to this subject.

A)If anyone is playing in F&O he must have DEEP Pockets...this is a MUST.....because I have marked that when market tanks by 5% , individual stocks tank by 10% and more and if you have no deep pockets to give the margin you are out of that stocks and that means you have booked loss and in F& O ,Loss is loss and you can't cover it....unless you buy another lot and it goes up and sell it higher....but it is not possible....It never happens...So the best way is to have a big purse of atleast Rs.10 lacs and if you have that only one should play in F&O otherwise not, that too in a very very disciplined manner..Never buy more then 1 lots if you are going to start with Rs.10 lacs as when market tanks , one would need that money to average that lot while one lot more and also to pay the margin.....Madhu this is very very important....10 lacs and only one lot to buy.....this is the ratio....because one will need to average even one more lot to buy if it further goes down...and again pay the margin..

Moreover the average game should be done only if a stock goes down by 50-70 rs in above 200-300 rs stocks and 10-15-20 in below 200 stocks.One can't go on averging at just rs 5 down or 20 down, otherwise he will end in holding big chunk of lots...and will make a hell of the situation.....

One more thing....he should have holding capacity to roll over his position for 2-3 months or even 4-5 months even if the price do not come....and is in loss....Means 10 lacs should not be needed for 6 months atleast...I have seen the price comes back to normal level and also goes up in big way if one holds stocks in F&O be it take 2-3 months and for that ,one has to roll over it every last thrusday or before 2-3 days..lot valan ends..

Madhu these are my 2 pennys on F&O ...I may have forget some points ..and If I recall I will write more on this...

I will only say here that all I have written are my observations and no book reading.....

Regards,

Rajeev

Sub-prime problem not as big as made out to be.......

Sub-prime problem not as big as made out to be

John M Berry / Mumbai January 02, 2008

As the US savings and loan crisis worsened in the 1980s, analysts tried to top each other’s estimates of the debacle’s cost to the federal government.

Much the same thing is happening now with losses linked to subprime mortgages, with figures of $300 billion to $400 billion being bandied about.

A more realistic amount is probably half or less than those exaggerated projections — say $150 billion. That’s hardly chicken feed, though not nearly enough to sink the US economy.

A loss of $150 billion would be less than 12 per cent of the approximately $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages outstanding. About $800 billion of those are adjustable-rate mortgages, the remainder fixed rate.

Subprime loans represent about an eighth of the value of all the US residential mortgages. In the S&L crisis, Charles A Bowsher, director of the Government Accountability Office, topped everyone’s estimate with $500 billion, though that dubiously included the cost of interest on money borrowed to cover actual losses of $160 billion. That’s about $260 billion in 2007 dollars.

This time insured depositors aren’t in the picture, so the federal government isn’t directly on the hook. But the government will share in losses by private lenders through reduced tax bills on their lowered income.

Now the primary threat to the economy isn’t coming from the losses on the mortgages themselves. It’s the capital squeeze on the many financial institutions that packaged so many subprime mortgages into so-called structured securities whose value is almost impossible to pin down.

That’s causing markets to value such securities as if the true losses on subprime mortgages were $300 billion to $400 billion.

Limited Losses
There are two reasons why the losses aren’t likely to be so large. First, the mortgages are backed by collateral, a house or condominium, and in a foreclosure a home typically retains significant value. When it is sold, the lender often will get 50 per cent to 60 per cent or more of the loan amount after foreclosure expenses.

Second, most subprime borrowers aren’t going to default. Suppose even one in four does and lenders recover somewhat more than half the mortgage amount. A fourth of $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages is $325 billion, and a 55 per cent recovery would mean a loss of about $145 billion.

To reach a $300 billion loss would require foreclosures on about half of all subprime mortgages with a 55 per cent recovery upon sale of the property. And a $400 billion loss would take about a 60 per cent foreclosure rate with recovery of about half the value from the sale.

What it means
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, in the third quarter, more than 16 per cent of all subprime mortgage payments were at least 30 days late, and less than 1 per cent of all mortgages involved homes in foreclosure.

What does that mean for the broader economy, particularly consumer spending?

As Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist for Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong, told an audience in Shanghai on December 12, less than you might think.

The economic repercussions of the housing bust and mortgage woes are limited to a great extent because less than half of American families own a home with a mortgage, he said.

Almost a third of all families rent their house or apartment, almost a fourth own and have no mortgage and the vast majority with a mortgage are current in their payments.

Consumer Spending
Even with about a tenth of all subprime mortgages now in foreclosure, only a small share of all American families — about 0.3 per cent — own a home in foreclosure, he said.

Maguire argued that, given the big increase in home values prior to 2006, the current decline in home prices isn’t likely to be a major drag on consumer spending.

It hasn’t been much of one so far. The Commerce Department said on December 21 that consumer spending rose a strong inflation- adjusted 0.5 per cent in November, and some analysts now expect it to increase at a 2.5 per cent annual rate for the quarter.

Comparisons in dollars of constant value between likely subprime losses and those incurred during the S&L crisis indicate the 1980s hit was significantly greater, though the current episode still has a long way to run.

One similarity between the two is that the real-estate problems are concentrated in a handful of states. Both times the two top trouble spots are California and Florida, states with long histories of real-estate speculation.

Where there are concentrations of foreclosures, the amount of money lenders will recover from the sales will be limited. In many other areas, however, the recovery may be considerably larger.

Many financial institutions dealing with securities backed by subprime mortgages have avoided fire sales at severely depressed values. Eventually, the true size of the underlying losses will show.

John M. Berry is a Bloomberg News columnist

Khandwala Sec....I recomended it here at around 72....news are following now to my call...

Here it is:
Khandwala eyes retail finance

BS Reporter / Mumbai January 03, 2008



Khandwala Securities (KSL), an institutional broking firm, on Wednesday announced its plans to enter the retail financial services segment.

At its board meeting here, a decision was taken to set up a subsidiary company for the proposed new business venture. The proposed venture will commence by the end of 2007-08, according to a company’s release.

Paresh J Khandwala, managing director, KSL, said: “With the penetration level of the retail investment participation in the country being under 5 per cent, the segment offers a opportunity for KSL to establish its presence in the fast-growing market segment.”

The proposed retail financial services business of KSL would provide a range of services to individual investors and include multiple business offerings from retail trading, wealth management to product and information distribution.


No wonder Khandwala Sec is in constant circuits since many days......

I am forced again to write

Friends,
I am forced again to write that please do not ask me for targets again and again.
I almost never have written targets anywhere except some instances at mmb.
If one will ask mwe about targets I will not reply.
I have written many times, targets are hard to be given.When sensex is at 20k and Fund Managers are expecting of 15-20% return,if our stocks gives 40-50% return then also they are great...
If a stock has run up then also you all come out to ask me whether it is a buy...Friends that is too much an asking for me...It is for you to decide if it is a buy at that level...
Now asking me about stocks which ahs run up is becoming more frequent even though I have written that please don't ask me such question....
Hence if someone will ask me such question I will not entertain such queries....

Year that was for Rajeev's Picks (2007)

I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at how his picks which he has recommended only in 2007 ( he might have recommended earlier at lower price but sitll i am taking only the price when he recommended this year) has performed over this year so as to get a feel of his accuracy and also to get one consolidated list for year 2007.
Note: This includes stocks recommended even in Nov and Dec so you will see huge number of stocks which hasnt become multibagger yet.

A special thanks to Feltra for giving the list in sorted order of ascending returns (cmp is based on 1/1/2008). According to Rajeev, you can still buy the stocks from beginning of the list which hasnt become a multibagger yet.

Scrip Reco CMP %chg
HOV Service 200 196 -2.00
ang auto 188 188 0.00
Crest Animation 140 145 3.57
Ontrack Systems 24 25 4.17
Ashim Investment 85 92 8.2
KIC Metaliks 72 78 8.33
sahyadri ind 70 77 10.00
Epic Energy 150 170 13.33
Vadilal Industries 70 80 14.29
Khaitan elec 117 138 17.95
Avery India 72 86 19.44
Prithvi Info 270 326 20.74
Tera Software 85 104 22.35
Gateway dsitriparks 130 160 23.08
assam cpy 45 56 24.44
cybele ind 28 35 25.00
RPG Cable 50 64 28.00
Khandwala security 80 104 30.00
Pittie Lamination 65 85 30.77
Taneja aerospace 170 224 31.76
SEMAC 210 280 33.33
abc india 55 74 34.55
Frontier Springs 20 27 35.00
Parsvanth developers 350 474 35.43
Raunaq Auto 28 38 35.71
Transgene Biotek 66 90 36.36
Austin Engg 107 146 36.45
Precision electronics 40 55 37.50
ITH 170 240 41.18
IFCI 68 96 41.18
spice jet 60 85 41.67
Netflier Finco 43 63 46.5
Cubex Tubing 70 105 50.00
Innocorp Ltd 40 60 50.00
TTML 42 63 50.00
pratibha industries 280 420 50.00
Ess Dee Aluminium 400 600 50.00
GMR Infra 160 245 53.13
Panoramic Universal 110 170 54.55
IDBI 110 170 54.55
Transport corporation of india 115 180 56.52
Vakrangee software 130 210 61.54
SAAG RR 40 66 65.00
Dr Agarwal Eye 40 66 65.00
Avantel Soft 60 100 66.67
flex foods 23 40 73.91
FCS Soft 80 140 75.00
stone india 130 230 76.92
shivani oil 350 620 77.14
omaxe 320 570 78.13
Nirlon 80 144 80.00
Kalindi Rail 310 560 80.65
Anjani Portland 35 64 82.86
Surya chakra power 25 46 84.00
Jain Studio 22 42 90.91
RTS Power 120 230 91.67
Garnet construction 52 100 92.31
Satvahan ispat 45 88 95.56
Patel Logistics 55 110 100.00
Bartronics 120 240 100.00
Bilpower 170 340 100.00
alfa transformer 70 147 110.00
Selan oil Exploration 80 180 125.00
Tata Power 670 1520 126.87
Kirloskar Ferrous 40 92 130.00
DMC international 20 46 130.00
IMP Power 130 300 130.77
Usha Martin 60 141 135.00
K Sera Sera 17 43 152.94
Jayaswals Neco 23 60 160.87
Kaverri Telecom 110 290 163.64
MSK Projects 65 178 173.85
Artson Engg 40 115 187.50
Rohit Ferro 40 115 187.50
JMC Project 170 500 194.12
Kerala Ayurveda 45 140 211.11
Marg Const 160 600 275.00
XL Telecom 132 515 290.15
Maestros Mediline 17 78 358.82

Wishing All A Happy New Year.........Sensex at 28k to 30k...

Friends,

I Wish all a very very great Year in stock market and in life.

I wish all have very good health as Health is Wealth and nothing can be compared with Health...Maintain your health at any cost.....
I remember , we had a saying and I use to learn by heart in School that:
If Money is lost nothing is lost,
If Charector is lost something is lost,
But if Health is lost everything is lost...
So friends, remember to take care of your health...If one is going to have loads of money but if his health does'nt permits to use it,all those money are good for nothing....it is mere Stones.....

Well in the new year as it is already past 12 Midnight, I would like to write that, I am putting a target of 28k to 30k for Sensex and Nifty at 8800 to 9000 for this year Viz:2008...and also feels that the FII inflow will remain more then double ,then 2007, which was $16bn in 2007.....

I hope my prediction comes true and you all,including me will have fabulous year....In Stock market...
Just go through my list of 21 stocks which I have given.They will give good returns in the year to come....