Friends,
I have been recomending stock in past time and again like India Glycols,Navin Flourine etc...
India Glycols has started making 52 week high, 157 , which I recomended at around 80.Marg Ltd now nearing 200,JMC from 80 to 180....etc etc the list is very long......
Well, among the recently picked , Frontier Spring has come out with again good results and one can keep a watch on thaat.
Another stock which has come out with fentestic results is Dujodwala Product Ltd.Moreover I also saw in todays bulk deal that one big investor bought some Dujodwala Product around Rs 14...check it your self who is he......
He is the same guy who has taken stake in TeleCanor Global Ltd and Telecanor is in down circuit but I would like to recomend it as a buy.
The following annoucement I saw at bse today.......
"TeleCanor Global Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its adjourned meeting held on October 26, 2009, inter alia, has transacted the following:
1. Take a view on fully harnessing the potential of the 102.74 Acre Land Bank of the Company situated right in the middle of the PCPIR region where the GOI is estimating a Rs. 3.43 Lakh Crore investment with in the confines of 270 sq. kms.
2. Authorize the MD to appoint a reputed consultant well versed in such matters to give a road map on active participation of the Company as a Land Bank owner in either the capital intensive Processing Area with in the zone or all Non Processing Areas as identified by APIIC the nodal agency in view of the memorandum of agreement entered by the Dept. of Chemicals and Petrochemicals and the AP Govt. on October 01, 2009.It has been resoled that MD is authorized to hire the services of a reputed and appropriate agency and to hold discussions with APIIC in order to fully harness the potential of this land bank. After the consultant study the Company will deliberate on submitting an appropriate proposal to the nodal agency in this regard. "
Company having a land bank of 102.74 acre in the middle of PCPIR region where GOI is investing RS 3.43 lacs cr rupees? Wow!......what can be the price of that land ?Calculate it not in Acres but in sq feet or sq metre.......because these lands will be sold not in acres but in sq feet or sq metres.....
I would like to have feedbacks from readers who live in that vicinity or have any contact in that region to try and get what can be the value for this 102.74 acre of land.Intially when I recomended this stock,I was thinking that they must have a small plot of 2-5 acres of land but when I read it in bse annoucement today that they have 102 acres of land, makes this stock very precious according to me.
Moreover their product in IT is also going to fetch much higher valuation then what we are seeing today......the payment gateway product...if that comes out successfull then Telecanor will be the biggest multibagger in next 2 years.......
But remember this is all ifs and buts, these are my view and I can go horribly wrong in my analysis........do due diligence and then act on it......
India Glycols ,Navin,Marg, Madhucon,JMC ,Mcnally Bharat etc remains my favourites.
I remember I recomended Simmond Marshall at mmb around 40-50 and recently maybe, not sure, have written once in a list.Simmond Marshall has come out with excellent results and is going very cheap at 5 p/e and have a very tiny eq.....with promoters increasing stake as well......
Coming to market, it went down by over 300 points and investor become anxious what will happen.....Market was looking overbought in ST and hence the correction.Everyone who buys anything was going up and making easy money.That much of easy return was never going to happen for long time.Market always teaches lesson that making money in stock market is not easy.
Market is good and will remain good.It will bounce back.No need to worry on it. Just stay invested........We have a long way to go......If we are not following technicals then do not track at all.I had never written anything on technicals....because I do not understand it nor I believe in it.
I know all technical guys will say that didn't we say that there will be correction?But when it has come?After crossing 4750 , which was their biggest resistance for them?and market crossed all resistance....I have seen one of the website has written , which I copy pasted here in past, is still writing that who will FILL THE GAP?That is the problem with technical guys.But I ask, who created this charts?Human created charts....then who created this gaps filling, humanbeing...does market knows this charts?No.....these all technicals and charts came afterwards , market is the ultimate.......one needs to think and ask himself.............WHO COMES FIRST....it is a very simple question to ask.....Market or Charts.........!
So, when we do not invest on technicals then we do not sell on technical calls as well, so simple .Let them say that market will go below 4000....they have proved wrong from Mar 09...........When we are investing on fundamentals why we need to bother about technicals?This is horrible.....there will be no end...it is just like a person who is in bad state of affairs in life, goes to an astrologer...and what he will do...he will show this planet and this planet is not favouring you and hence you need to go through rituals and then everything will be alright....you need to wear the ring of Saturn or Jupiter or Mars ....or even they use to advice to wear a ring of Rahu and Ketu and if someone knows about astrology then Rahu and Ketu are not planets but an illussionary planets......and astorlogers has also made them a reason for earning.....well, according to what I understand, when a person goes to an astrologer , he is full of problem and sorrow.The duty of astrologer is to give solace , while saying that you will have better time in next year , something like that to help regain his confidence.But instead they will show something where clients will spend money and they will earn out of it.......
A person has come to an astrologer because he is in problem and see, here what happens.....the astrologer will instead show him way to dole out money for doing ritual and Pooja.....high spending for RICH people for same Pooja and same rituals for less money for poor one........How that is possible.....
So when we are following one path don't mix it up with other.......have confidence in what we are doing...that is the order of the day.......I have found no Astrologer who has said to Mohandas Karamchad Ghandhi, when he was in teens that he will be a famous figure and one day whole world will remember him even after his death.Not a single astrologer I have come through who said to Amitabh Bacchan when he was child that you will become an icon in Film industry.......if it is there in the Kundali then why astrologer were not able to say it when one is born.....No one told Dhirubhai Ambani that you will become a legend ..........that is called awakening..........that is what Swami Vivekanand says.......BE AWAKE.......that is the meaning what Swami Vivekanad means.......Awake means not what we do things awaked after night.....have your own conviction .....that is awakening....have confidence in what we do.....that is awakening.... have your own say....have your own reason ........ One should be able to understand what is RIGHT AND WHAT IS WRONG......that is awakening......
There is a very thin line which distinguishes FAITH AND BLIND FAITH......Shradhha aur Anshradhha main bahut jyada faraq nahi hai......there is a very thin line that bifurcates them......and one needs to understand that very well.......someone told you and you believed it that is blind faith......kisi ne bol diya aur humne man liya.....that is anshradhha.......
Remember one thing......there can be no human being who can take place of GOD.........kisi humanbeing ko bhagvan ka darraja kaise de sakte hai........that is blindly following someone.....a person who takes birth as human is full of vices and human weakness......how he can become GOD....or someone can put him in place of GOD........but I have seen that ....some people become GOD for someone.....they just believe what he says......even though what he says is not true....
Well, I need to stop here otherwise there is no end in writing on this......It can take hours and hours and days and days.....and we can go on discussing all these things .....
good example about astrologer.easy to understand what you want to say.
ReplyDeleteWOW...... Rajeev never seen this spiritual side of you.
ReplyDeleteIts an excellent writeup and as usual u have cleared all doubts in the most emphatic manner.
Thank You
So. Rajeev The Philosopher! This is a totally new facet of your personality. KEEP IT UP.
ReplyDeleteDear rajeev
ReplyDeleteyes frontier has come out with a stellar performance,low equity and an eps of around 4.5.Looks like it shall reach an eps of around 8 or so going forward,giving a p/e of 3.
added some quantity a few days back.
Thanks
Rajeev ji
ReplyDeleteU r great by all standards, hope u hv remembered me, i m following urs scrips since MMB times. urs ist pick at tht time was Stone india , u hv recommended at 9 , later this stock attain new highs at 250 + , i m also holding urs all time fav pick JMC also at present , please also post some offtopic subject like this post , when time permits, GOD BLESS U
thanks
Vicky
Hi Rajeev, when it comes to stock picking, apart from your MULIT-BAGGER criteria I follow following strategy (From New Buffettology).
ReplyDeleteCorrect me if I am wrong.
Say we do FD and get interest on that. Same way, FD= stock-price and interest= EPS. SO if we take example of say Navin Fluoro.
As per Moneycontrol data Stock-price is say 285 & EPS is 57.97. So if we want to calculate interest it will be 57.97X100/285, which comes to 20.34%. So roughly we get 20% return on Navin Fluoro investment, which is way above current FD / PPF interest rate. So its definitely a value buy.
Am I correct in above calculation?
This may sound very basic/foolish, but I need to get it cleared.
With Regards,
Vikas
Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteI have got a news that "PNB gilts" will be merged with PNB itself before december end. The news has come from the management itself. I have a small quantity of it in my portfolio. I would like to get your opinion on adding it further.
News source:
http://www.livemint.com/2009/10/29141200/PNB-Q2-net-up-31-says-no-con.html?h=B
Vicky,
ReplyDeleteYes I recomended Stone India at MMB at Rs 9 and it went on to touch 250+.....I remember I was critisized for recomendinga penny stock without any fundamentals from fellow boaders but if we want a multibagger then we have to find stock which have no fundamentals...which comes later in the play and hence become multibagger
Vikas,
ReplyDeleteI don't go that much deep in trying to find reason for investment.Means how much div yeild one is having.....at cmp...When we are thriving for multibagger return , we end up co with nil Div......
Vasanth,
ReplyDeletePNG Gilts is looking good and can give steady return..Do not track at all this stock.....
Keep a watch on Mahindra Ugine Ltd...MUSCO....
Dear Rajeev
ReplyDeleteApar posted spectacular set of numbers. EPS for H1FY10 is 16 Rs. and for H2FY10 if it reports 14 Rs.(conservative estimate), So at 30 EPS at PE of 12 (again on conservative basis) it should touch 350-400 range in medium term. Am I right?
Results are available on the company website.
Regds
Amit
Rajeev, Do you like NHPC? Can we invest in NHPC for long term.
ReplyDeleteThanks
siva
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteChemical
I have started picking up Navin Flourine. Wish i had visited your call early this year to pick up at double digit. Thanks for the detailed report and multiple references which shows that your extremely bullish even at these levels.
Power
I like Apar too. Its going to go places and its one such company where one can stay put and watch the performance.
Finance
I have started getting into money matters. Promoters has bowled a googly by calling for EGM to extend the period of conversion of warrants. This means that either of the below
1 - They didnt expect the price to go from 35 to 130 in such a short period
2 - Donot want to keep converting at three digits as they have the max warrant to be converted
3 - Keep this as a cushion to utilise the highs and lows.
But guess 2 yrs down the line with an avg of 100 crs profit yoy, i dont want to even think of any targets out here.
You have prooved time and again that investment is simple and enjoyable if the homework is done without any bias and its even easier for people like me by just taking forward from the groundwork you have already done.
God bless and keep the good work going.
Thanks
Barat
Barat,
ReplyDeleteThe real punch comes when a person like me who knows nothing about Cash Flow, EBTID(Whatever it is called),never reads AR, never reads BS,never able to read the debt eq ratio which I would like to do,never try to look at the management etc parametres which are a must according to some experts and when I see reports of brokerage houses and see all these figures and which makes the Report of perticular stock lenghthy....very difficult to read those figures and understand....
I am able to pick stock which can give above average return without looking at all these.....
I donno whether what I am doing is correct ...but I have succeded that way and hence I am following it......
I think what I am able to visualize the growth and able to read the finer lines is making a big big difference...and hence maybe I need not to go for all the details other are going.....
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteI believe the nos that come in analyst reports are just the postmortem of the current data available and extrapolate with the guidance. An average guy like me have never succeeded completing the first few paragraphs of page 1 of the report and i quickly go to the last page to see what is the last para. offlate i have stopped even caring to open the report.
I believe the reports are meant to overwhelm the readers and to attract retailers at higher levels . I am sorry if its rude but thats my honest feeling over the last 7 yrs as have not seen a report on a company when its very young.
I think what I am able to visualize the growth and able to read the finer lines is making a big big difference...and hence maybe I need not to go for all the details other are going.....
This is a gift and i am happy that you knew it. Every one has a unique gift in some form or the other but we do not know what exactly it is. Having the gift is one and sharing the fruits with others needs much much bigger heart & Effort.
Some people may not appreciate / understand your picks because they are looking at a very very short term, "as they keep asking its 100 now, can i buy now, what will be the price in 6 months" and in the process fail to undergo the learning curve and with that comes lots of fun.
I remember you telling me that you may not spend time once you travel to USA. But here we are talking in this wonderful forum. I am happy to have this opportunity to interact with you and learn.
Regds,
Barat
Vikas,
ReplyDeleteI am taking the opportunity to put my thoughts.
Before i start, i would like to tell you that there is nothing called foolish. Each one has a diffent way of looking at things. Your view is a nice way of looking at it but it has pros & corns
Pros:
- If i were to invest say 1rs in a 1000 rs reveneue making business, my first question will be how much will the company generate profit yoy for my 1rs investment. If the company earns say 20 paisa as EPS, you get 20% growth on captial
- This means that the risk vs reward is highly favouring the reward
corns
- Remember, Your deposit with bank will give you a assured return mom or qoq or yoy. ( But inflation will beat you is a different view all to gether)
- But in the above scenario, the business may not return the 20 paisa profit yoy or it may give a portion of the profit as dividend.
- You have inherited risk of depending purely on the share price appreciation as your investment return.
Hope it clarifies to an extent.
Giving you a different flavour
Imagine a case where you get dividend of 5-10% invested amnt. This will mean that you had bought the business at throw away price and when you start getting ur dividend in ur bank, your principle lnvested would have minimum doubled and at times many fold.
NOw had you and me bought navin at even 100 rs , today we are at close to 300 and getting 6.5% as interim dividend and we may get 10% yoy. This is investment and its as simple as that but needs conviction to implement.
cheers
Barat
Barat,
ReplyDeleteLet me write here,when someone ask about stock I do not know and I still give the answer...I go to bse site look at results first,wherein I first look at Np and then my eye will go to public holdong then eq and then I open SHP, then I click to annoucement tab....I go through all these...and then I give opinion of that stock..I take that much of labour to do that....That takeaway my time as well still I do it invariably...Unless I am not interested in the stock and I am not tracking then only I will write , I do not track...I may have erred while doing that but I use to give answers as much as I can....sometimes I write "Keep a watch on such and such stocks"in replies....that is a hint and one should try to find out why I am writing so.....and revert back but no one seems do the homework as I have seen rarely someone has reverted back to tell me what is there.....
Dear Rajeev bhai,
ReplyDeleteI am zapped with your frontier spring.
There is more to what just meet the eyes. I will get back on this.. But very very very intersting. I am sure you would have already noticed what i am just finding it out.. Write to you soon on this..
I am enjoying this.
dera rajeev
ReplyDeletedo you mean mahindra ugine steel ltd?
Hi, Barat,
ReplyDeleteThanks for clarifying my doubts about my investment style.
Keep it up.
With Regards,
Vikas
Hi, Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteExcellent news from your STOCK OF YEAR-KPIT Cummins. It merges with 'Sparta Consulting', One of North America's fastest growing SAP specialists. Check the following link
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/announcement/KPIT_Cummins_Infosystems_Ltd_301009.pdf
It should rock in future.
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteFrontier springs:
I could see knowledgeable investors already got in by 2008 and hold more than 1% of the total equity. I know this guy who had given a buy call on indag rubber way back when it was at 20 rs in 2005.
I also went back to your old posts and seems like this is your very old call may be 2007 - 2008
Thought of sharing what met my eyes when i analysed the results
- The sales remained constant but they managed to improve the profit margin from avg of 3% last yr to around 13% for the last 2Qtrs. Hence h1 fy10 is twise that of FY09.
- There client list includes "Railways" "BEML", "BHEL", "defence" etc etc
- No wonder equity is only 30L and already cornered.
- May give a windfall gain in short term but if the performance is maintained
Some how i get a feeling that there is some thing else to it and would like to know what i had missed. Do you also look at capacity expansion which would result in increase in production or current capacity utilization and is there any data available ?
Cheers
Barat
Barat,
ReplyDeleteYou are talking of Ashish Chug.I do not know him personally but I use to interact with him when I was in India on Email.....we use to exchange stocks which I find good and he use to write me about his....
Offlate I have lost contact of his...
Vikas,
ReplyDeleteWell, I will only like to write to you here is that I should be the first person who recomends stocks without going through AR, BS or any such type of things and still coming out winner....
I rarely write big reports on any stock because I have no manpower to do it.Moreover as I have repeatedly written here that I do not know how to read AR or BS....
What I can analyse is growth and that I can make out by reading some clippings in newspaper or bse annoucemnet...or at other site.....that's all....and it is over.....sometimes I also get surprised to see how that is happening....because many times I have seen that after I have spotted , some big operator has started cornering it.....or taken some stake....and that operators comes in biggies.....
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteYes. to me only you, ashish and later mudur par... gave a call on Ind Rub. no one else even knew that comp.
Rajeev, is there any other info on frontier spring that i have missed to pick.
cheers
Barat
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteHope you are doing good. Choksi Lab have come with good results and promoter have also increase stakes. I think should be in UC from Monday. Do you give a buy call at CMP. Do you see any kwality dairy in making. I am a novice in Stock as compared to you but I am a very strong believer and liked your current post which is true example of the depth in you thought. Good bless you with lots lots of wisdom and knowledge as you deserve it. "God help those who help themselves"> have a nice weekend.
Also what are you views about Kirloskar Ferro at CMP its also come out with Mind boggling results and promoters increasing stakes. I think it will be a very active stock in next bull run.
ReplyDeleteHi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteToday I came across OM Metal Infra, it looks attractive to me can you please give your first snap analysis on the same.
Thanks in anticipation
Varun,
ReplyDeleteI wrote about Choksi Lab.When to buy and what price one need to buy is dependable on him/her.I am no judge of that....if I am going to take buy and sell decision in place of investor then I think it is not going to go long....
Don't keep on asking me whether this stock is still a buy or not....make your own judgement...I am not here to feed things to you.I am here to show stock which are going unnoticed.....Don't expect too much from me and hence load me wiht so much queries to answer....
Everybody wants another Kwality Ltd , but unless any stock runs like that no one knows that.....Kir Ferro is looking good and I have been time and again recomending it here...Om Metal I do not track....
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteSorry for that, will keep in mind. It seems you had a rough day.
All the very best and take it easy.