Friends,
What a way to end!
Samvat 2065 is gone and sensex has ended at 17322 and Nifty at 5142.........
Now from here to where?Samvat 2066 ....I think we should be much much better off then thisI have already written many times here that we can see 21k before 2009 and 31k before 2010.....actually in last Oct market was at 8500 and we have come 100% from there defying all apprehension from technical analyst and even fundamentals analyst.
Not a single technical guy has perdicted this.If someone can give me evidence that they predicted 17322 and 5142 then I will be glad to read it.There were all sorts of resistance and always showing danger that if this mark is not crossed then we can see following percentage of reaction.
Market has moved 30% or 40% or 60% from this level and hence it has to come to fill the gap otherwise it will become over bought.There is an evening star or morning star pattern or Doji or head and shoulder pattern formed and hence surely market will react and so on and so forth.But alll the calculation turned out to be BIG BIG miscalculation and the funny part is these technical guys are still not ready to believe the move and says that market will tank.That is rediculous.They always have arguements that charts pattern shows what is coming up and not market course the chart......They always believe that Charts shows what is going to happen even they have failed miserably from 2003 to 2007 and again from March 2009 to Oct 2009.... In 6 months the entire scenario has changed and the shot in the arm came with Congress winning the election and Left were driven out completely....
I have never believed in technicals nor I adviced someone to follow it.It is all for day trading and that too operators manupalate it, eating your stoploss and then bounce back.
My advice(usually I suggest) to all my readers is that please , Never Never trade in F&O.Leave it for FII's,HNI's and big players.We are very small to play in it.If someone will play he will lose everything he has made while investing.
No Day Trading Nor play in F&O......
I remember I gave a call for Petron Eng and Const ltd on 17th sep at 169 and I remember when I gave the call, it was a day when I saw Petron going for 20% upper circuit and suddenly it caught to my mind that what the hell this stock is doing?
Well, even it was in UC of 20% I gave a call the very next day at 169.......and today after exactly 1 month it is RS 210.
One of my friend told me ,Rajeev, your Petron Eng is not moving and suddenly my eye went to Petron Eng for highest gainer list and it was there.I told him , it will run at its own time.Have patience.
Petron Eng,Lumax Ind, Areva T&D, SRF Ltd, Navin Flourine,KPIT Cummins,Apar Ind,Thermax,Alsthom,L&T, Seimens,TRF are evergreen stocks........and has been recomended here time and again.I have even went to the extent to write that L&T is a stock of the decade.
Deep Ind, Excel Crop are stock for coming years which can become large cap from midcap.
There were some dark horse I listed like Scan Point Geomatics,Lesha Energy,Telecanor Global ,Rungta Irrigation,EPC Ind etc which are making new 52 week highs.They are capable of going still up as my theory that new stock will take charge for the new bull run.
Readers are requesting me to list stock where they can buy and not to have a look at it till next Diwali.But that is something not possible.One needs to be on toes in stock market.Atleast to book profit when the stock doubles and sell 50% to make the rest FREE.
I have always written here that I do not look for any stock if it going to give me an average return.Only if I am convinced that it will give above average return , means more then market, then only I will recomend it or I personally have a look at it.
I would like to write on XL Tele , that it seems that the fall was delibarate and hence interest can be again seen in this counter with Solar Play coming back next year.So those who are holding must hold on with it.I think one of the reader also wrote me regarding XL Tele that will again run.
Would like to write on GOLD .Heard from experts that GOLD can touch $2500 in next 2 yrs and hence I just have to imagine what will the prices for Titan, Deccan Gold,Shirpur GoldRefinary and Jwellary making cos like Suashih Diamond,Gitan Jali Gems etc .Here the dark horse is Zodiac JRD.
There is one another stock in Gold Jwellary and it is Surana Corp.It is also diversified in Wind Mills power projects.Keep a watch on these two......
THANKYOU RAJEEV BHAI AS USUAL
ReplyDeleteTODAY I WILL BUY KPIT DURING MAHURAT TRADING,......
HAPPY DIWALI TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY AND MAY GOD BRINGS GOOD LUCK
REGARDS & LOVE
SANDEEP
Dear Rajeev Ji,
ReplyDeleteHappy Diwali
I buy petron engg that day when you recommend one month back.After that I daily tracking it very keenly. it rises on the day before their chairman comes on CNBC news.I also did day trading on 16th as I know petron engg chairman gives interview on tv. So my point is that as Bennett & colmen buys intense technolgy at Rs 30/- it is definate they bring news on ET now after some time & that time share show its value.
Hi, rajeev.
ReplyDeleteYou have again spread so many gems infront of all of us. Believe me its so difficult to decide which one of your stocks to omit.Its just impossible. so on this auspicious day I bought KPIT Cummins, Avantel,Zodiac-JRD-MKJ,Suarana corp.,Infotrek Syscom.
I left few more of your suggested gems, as I already have 30+ stocks which are difficult to track being in medical profession.
Lets hope all your suggested gems turn out multi-bagger by next Diwali itself.
With Regards,
Vikas
Hi Rajeev, As i had ample time in Diwali for surfing, came across three stocks on which i want your expert opinion.
ReplyDelete1- SINGER INDIA ; CMP-45
The sewing machine maker.
Positive Points-Low equity, Foreign Promotors holding- 91%. No FIIs,Good earning visibility since 2008, FV-10,Less PE ratio of 1.18, stock unknown( No FII / MF holding),Brand name
Negative Points- Negative BV of 4.52 (as per MC data),No dividend since 98.
Also recently in April they have done Capital Reduction ( i dont know what it exactly means and good/bad for investors. Please clarify)
2- ADITYA-BIRLA CHEMICALS ; CMP- 78
Positive Points- Promotors holding - 56.31%, No FII, Good consitent earning visibility for last 5 yrs., FV-10,BV- 102 ( so below BV), Less PE ratio of 3.78, stock unknown ( No FII / MF holding), Very good ROE & ROCE, fair dividend yield, debt is reducing since last 3 years,good reputed name of Birlas
Negative points- Large Equity
3-ARCHIES ; CMP-94
The gift and greetings company. I came across this one when i went to enquire about Hanung Toys. The person was dealing with expression cards but open hartedly told to buy Archies stock, as tough competitor Hallmark is going out of business. So they have monopoly.
Positive Points- Low equity, Promotors holding - 62.35%,FII only 0.01%, No MF, FV-10, BV- 117 ( so below BV)
Negative Points- Large debt, Though company had 8 Cr. of profit last yr., this year they have 1 Cr. of loss ( Economic recession may not itself can be the cause for this much of loss), PE ratio is minus 57( From Rediff money), though sensex is running up, this stock is going down since last 2-3 months.
I have put forward both positive and negative points for these companies. But as you know, no buying without your suggestion! YOU ARE THE EXPERT.
So guide me about these stocks.
With Regards,
Vikas
Dear Rajeev Ji,
ReplyDeleteHow do you compare kpit cummins and Geometric . RJ had holding in Geomectric. is it cheaper than kpit cummins.
Hi Thinck tank,
ReplyDeleteAccording to me KPIT is looking good to me.But when RJ is there Geometric Ltd becomes a buy as well.
I have already wrote in one of the reply that Geomtric is a buy.The trigger here is it has not participated in last bull run in big way and hence can be bought now.I am not sure about KPIT Cummins all time high by 2008....
Hi Rajeev, I am sitting on huge profits in Madhucon projects after having a loss of 50%. I was accumulating as because you are recommending.
ReplyDeleteNow I am accumulating XL Telecom because of your recommendation, It is trading in the range of 40 to 60. I sold at 60 and re entered at 44 yesterday. I will add 20% more qnt on every 10% fall.
XL Telecom is one stock that has give negative return in last 3-6 months. I am expecting a bounce any time now. But, my avg price is still 100 rs. Hoping to reduce avg price to 60 rs.
Please let us know if you have any more update on xl telecom
Thanks
siva
Dear Rajeevbhai......
ReplyDeleteDiwali 2009 is of course very much shining, But......
Whether rise of Sensex from 8000+ to 17000+ in very short time without any significant change in the fundamentals is logical, justified and sustainable for longer time or a drastic correction is expected in near future?
How Indian share market will react with any bad news from global market again?
Whether present quick rise from 8000 to 17000 is healthy sign? I don't think that only so called stable congress Govt.is responsible for this rise.
You are quite right that not a single technical guy was able to predict in past .....Sensex reaching 21000,.....then again falling down upto 8000,........and again climbing upto 17000+.....all in very short time. No technical guy had advised to exit at top of 21000, or to invest vigorously at bottom of 8000 for long term Investors.
Don't you think that all these things happening in very short time is a dangerous sign?
Regards.
Bhalchandra Phadnis
Vikas,
ReplyDeleteRegarding "ADITYA-BIRLA CHEMICALS".
Any idea about their direct competitors? May be that could explain the low PE.
Uno,
ReplyDelete"ADITYA-BIRLA CHEMICALS" is old Bihar Caustic Ltd and they changed the name as I think they even merged other entity with it.
The reason market is giving low discounting is because of the GR.Birla gr is not investor friendly......there is no other reason then that according to me....
Dear Phadnis,
ReplyDeleteI think one need to go through the Diwali Interview on CNBC which one can find at moneycontrol site as well of RJ, RD and SA...I agree with what RJ is saying.....
The problem here is the rise was fast but then the fall was equally fast.The fall was due to global crisis and money going out with no demographic change in fundamentals of Indian economy.
The only problem was selling by FII's and that has come back and hence we are seeing the vigorous upmove.Investors lost a life time chance not to invest at rock bottom price.
Stll there are scores of stock available at cheaper rate.One need to buy them withour looking at what the market is doing.Still the participation of lay investor is not big enough , even 10% that we saw in 2007-2008 so I think we are not overbought.Ofcourse Agr has catch up but the broader indices is still to catch up with sensex and they should be the ourperformer in next 6 months...so buy where you look value and that I have been recomending here time and again.
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of mood of gulf countries. If they freighten by this that Gas is taking place of Crude.I think they also had huge investment in india. Our PM also visted qutar some time back. They are investing in Real estate.
Thanks Rajeev. Regarding the interview Rajeev was talking about. Here is the link " http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/market-outlook/see-nifty4200-6200-range-next-year-rakesh-jhunjhunwala_419649.html "
ReplyDeleteis it advisable to buy kwality diary even at this level?
ReplyDeleteHi rajeev,
ReplyDeleteWhats your call on Singer India at CMP? Can it be a multi-bagger?
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteJust bought 525 shares of parekh aluminex.
What do you think can be its five year target. Also I have stated my five year target for PSL. How about your five year target ??
Thnx in advance
hi mitz,
ReplyDeleteplzzzzz dont mind..
i believe you r not confident about you investment in Parekh Aluminex
The truth is that even rajeev cant give you any target. Moreover i am bullish on this scrip but for a LONG TERM. Parekh is in my portfolio as well and i will never sell it.
Its my request pls be confident about what you have did in investing. Do what your heart is saying...
u know rajeev has recommended so many stocks (i think more then 50) but as far as my understanding is concerned i always go with what my heart says to me. Also dont forget to do research on it before investing as nobody is god in this world. Do make small small notes, like yoy growth, promoters behaviour, and more important in which field it is.. always read about it on bseindia.com, the latest announcment etc etc
pls dont take it otherwise mitz..
thanks,
priya
Dear Priya,
ReplyDeleteConfidence.....I guess Rajeev knows more about my confidence than anybody else. I have been investing since the last 6 years and my maximum investment was in november 2008 where the whole investment community was selling like there's no tomorrow.
Thats about my confidence part.
Secondly about research . rest assured that i dont invest a single rupee if i havent researched the stock .
FYI i bought 18k shares of sujana twrs @ 10 , Om Metal 70K shares @ 7, madhucon pro 2K @ 45, HCC 2K @ 32, PSL 5600 @ 120, HEG 1K @ 120, Srei 1100 @ 70 and many more.
I am not trying to boast or sound egoistic in anyway.
Rajeev has always been a great guide and i have always appreciated that.
Asking RD for a five year target is not because i have not done my research but so that I can get his expert opinion on it too. And that is for the benefit of all readers of this wonderful Blog.
I hope u understand Priya.
Tnx.
As always your picks are rocking Rajeev. Great pick. I have just gone through the result announced by Deep Industries.
ReplyDeleteDeep Industries announced a substantial rise in standalone net profit for the quarter ended September 2009. During the quarter, the profit of the company rose 40.02% to Rs 42.16 million from Rs 30.11 million in the same quarter last year.
Net sales for the quarter for the quarter jumped 68.42% to Rs 143.88 million, while total income for the quarter jumped 65.85% to Rs 144.82 million, when compared with the prior year period.
It reported earnings of Rs 2.11 a share during the quarter, registering 39.74% growth over prior year period.
Source: http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/storyShow.php?fileR=20091020180713708&dir=2009/10/20&secID=livenews
More good news for Deep Industries.
ReplyDeleteThe Hyderabad-based infrastructure firm will own 50% in the two blocks. Its consortium partner, Deep Industries Ltd, a small Ahmedabad-based gas compressors and onshore rig services firm, will hold the balance stake.
Source:
http://www.livemint.com/2009/10/19220354/Energy--RIL-wants-price-clari.html
Vasanth,
ReplyDeleteThat is what I wrote in my comment part when I recomended Deep Ind that market is knowing something which we don't know and giving bigger discount.
If you will pull out my post and read My Comments you can see that...that is I call reading the finer lines.....
Great co to buy even at this rate as I don't know we have how many other co which is in same category, viz...Gas compression....
Vikas,
ReplyDeleteSinger India has reduced the eq due to previous accumalated loss.But try to think what is the future of its products , means seawing machines..If it has some other trigger then it is a different thing but not seeing any growth in this sector....
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteI understand your point. High of Kpit in 2008 is 136.
Genesys international making its new highs. if there is more steam left in that share.
Thinck tank,
ReplyDeleteI don't understand what u mean when u write , is there steam still left in Genesys Int?
I have always written that my picks will always give above average return then market.....
Dear rajeev ji,
ReplyDeleteI am sorry, I did'nt mean that , my real question is that, I am not able to analyze genesys business . when I did research on this company I read one blog on GIS named http://manojmisra.wordpress.com/about-me/
I also find that they are into HVAC and research gas monitoring systems named sherlock.
That is the only research I did.
Regards
Hi Rajeev
ReplyDeleteParekh Aluminex is consolidating for some time now and I feel it will go up after crossing 118-120 levels. Can you put some fundamental points about this stock. It has a PE of less than 4 and Book Value of 204.
Regards
Amit
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAmit,
ReplyDeleteWhat other more fundamental points you need when Parekh Aluminex is quoting at 4 p/e and half at BV price?
This is enough trigger for it to give atleast 3 times from here....then it will depend on how the co show the performance....
Dear Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteAfter an years break in mkt i tried to review and one stock in my PF cought my eyes . Its indag rubber. Its one of the unsung great call you had made in one of the gmail groups. though the captial appreciation is decent (35- 85) in 2 yrs time, i did sell an yr back when it was at 100 and made my shares free...
IR has given 20% dividend for the last 2 yrs and they have announced interim of 15% this month.. Its one of the wonderful stock i hold and i like holding it and held on when it was came below 20 levels...
Just wanted to share it with you and relish the success with you.
cheers
Barat
Hi Barat,
ReplyDeleteI think Indag Rubber is still good to hold on and even a buy at this level.Co is constantly improving earnings and bottom line.
Can turn out to be a multibagger which is my tarde mark....Lol.....
Dear Rajeev bhai,
ReplyDeleteabsolutely, love ur trademark and have no intention to sell as i will be getting 3rs dividend per year on my free shares. Infinite returns. i am adding IR with the dividend money i get from them and will be buying into if panic sets in.
Wonder at times investing is so simple if we do things right and do not expect return overnight...
Thanks much. Had to go through ur website in detail to choose my next pick
cheers
Barat
Dear Rajeev bhai,
ReplyDeleteJust found your comment on XLtele in this section.
I did pick up when u first initiated the call at 125 and made it free when it was 300-500 levels. I am going to hold on to it to see what the promoters have in mind.
in typical style of yours would like to know whether its an add at this level? one end a shocking qtr result and on the other end, Morgan Stanley converting FCCB at 150. Will these firanagis leave this stock here and take a loss?
cheers
barat
tHINCK TANK,
ReplyDeleteGas taking place for Crude is a very long process.Moreover they also know that the oil in their wells are going to get over in next 10-15-20-40 yrs...unless new oil wells are found but Oil is found elsewhere then in Gulf countries....
But the demand is so huge that it is not possible for the world to go for Gas usage....in complete sense....
Maybe India can be helped in big way from Importing Oil bills if Gas is used frequently in Cars,Ind etc....