Saturday, February 21, 2009
I am trying to look through US economy and the financial crisis.My interpretation maybe wrong as I am no Economics guys.I am science student and by default came to stock market and then I get interested in stocks and cos and went on making certain rules for investing in market .What ever I have written about the investing and what to look and when to look , maybe they are age old saying of investing in stock market but then I have never read any book on stock market nor read any Masters like Wareen Buffet ,Benjamin Graham,Peter Lynch or Charli Munger etc etc.....
I always thought that learning by mistakes is the best process and hence never bought those books where scores or thousands of investor use to read and follow.
Moreover, investing is a RISK and one needs to be daring in nature to invest in certain co at very early stage when no one is looking at.This type of investing needs lots of daring and this Daring comes from within or say it comes with birth.One can't learn it and that is why there is only one Dhirubhai Ambani or one Warren Buffet.
I also feel that more the person is acadamically qualified more he is defensive in nature and that is a big negative for investing.When person starts thinking in defensive manner, like say what will happen if the cos do not do well according to what is said by management then he will never invest in it.That is a draw back.Well,those who invested thinking that A gr stocks are the best to invest must also be repenting in this scenario.
There is nothing like good co or bad co, good management or bad management.Market is the slave of earnings and as soon as market sees that the stocks starts moving.Maybe sometime market takes time to show that but patience is always rewarded.
In both the above example eg Dhirubhai Ambani and Warren Buffet , they were average in studies.They were no great scholars.Actually Dhirubhai Ambani was just a matriculate.Just try to read any big business man they were very mediocre in studies and the likes of Bills Gates , oh! they were dropouts from college.Bill Gates even didn't complete his colloge.
What makes them successful?The Vision and clarity of what they wants to do.....and the way they stick to their Goals.
Anyway, coming back to US Crisis, I feel that US economy can still go down.They have deficit of $700 bn and how they are going do that ?How they are going to fill the gap?Their export is just arms and ammunations.US do not make anything they imports everything from world over.US has taken billions of dollars of loan from all over the world through treseury bills and they will have to pay it back.How they are going to do that?Not a single American belives in saving.They just save for Old age , and that too if they have good job otherwise they live on paycheck to paycheck.I just read today that a 90 year old man lost $7,00,000 in this financial crisis and now at the age of 90 he has to work at $10/hr! That is just rediculous.How can a person at 90 has to work at this age at just $10/hr when he needs to sit with his great grandsons and have leisure and have great time he has to go out and do the job?
Is this the American System and is this the way people are going to have to bear the brunt?I think there needs to be some radical changes in the whole thinking at the Top man at White House.The CEO's became arrogant that they didn't see what was happening in the financial world and went on creating mistakes after mistakes and to cover one mistake they went to do other mistakes.These CEO's were just interested in their fat salaries and they are the culprit to bring the economics crisis.I just am not able to understand that after infusing $700 bn still the US crisis is not taking name to subside anyway.Obama is ready with another $700 bn stimulous pacakage but will it end there!Bear Stren, UBS,Citi,Lehman,Goldman Scahs etc etc are all drowned in the credit crunch.New skeleton is coming out one by one and there seems to be no end.People are loosing money in 401k and IRD.People who put their money in these plans have lost $1,00,000 to $7,00,000 and more and the pity is that these are people who are in very old age and they needs the money badly and they have lost everything.How this type of incident are going to be averted is a big big problem.Now US government is thinking of nationalizing all banks but what about the money lost?Who will pay that?Being sick is a CRIME in USA.The bills goes so big that never a person can pay it in his whole life.If do not have Medical Insurance you are gone.Even with Medical Insurance one has to still dole out money and that can go to 5000 to 10000 dollars according to the treatment.
Obama is saying he will takecare of this thing but what he will be able to do needs to be seen as the Pharmaceutical Lobby with Doctors is very powerful.They will never let happen that way.
Printing money and infusing in system makes no sense.That will give rise to inflation and that will increase the turmoils of people in America.What America does is SPENDING, they just spend and nothing else.The Auto sector eg GM,Ford , Landrover,Jaguar etc are good for nothing and all had gone bankrupt.Thousands of people has been laidoff.The unemployment figures that has come is highest since many decades.Housing is down and that is the biggest stimulous of USA.When that is down who will survive.Obama is talking of putting a brake on outsourcing but who will do these jobs ass cheap as Indians?Any IT Eng gets no less then $70,000 and that is Rs 35 lacs.Who is going to pay this type of salary to the IT Eng in USA?Where as same jobs is done in India with just RS 60,000 at any BPO ceentre .Just compare the figures.Maybe IT Eng gets more salary but is no where near to the pay USA will have to pay in USA perticularly when the chips are down for US company and economy.
I am just giving an example.I bought a Lexmark printer , a wireless one.I installed the software but didn't do it correctly and hence with UBS cord it was working but not without it.I called Lexmark and asked for the assitance and you know where I was connected?I was connected to Banglore.Now why Lexmark has to give customer service work to Indians?Naturally it is coming very cheap.That is the catch and to put it properly, the things were done very nicely and precisely.The wireless software was installed again very properly and the job was done greatly.Now tell me where in the world US will get this type of work done with 100% customer satisfaction and that too so CHEAP?Nowhere in the world but India.
There are almost 50% of population who do not goes for College.They drops out from school or just complete 12th and leave the school and start earning at $9-10 /hr.They think that they will earn and then go for college but that never happens as once you start earning it is diffcult to leave that job because the money that comes in the pocket makes you feel not to go for further studies.I have seen that once you leave the study it needs lots of guts and determination to go back there and hence I feel that Indian way is the best way for all children.First complete the studies and then take the job.Focus only on studies and nothing else.
On every new day I am hearing newer and newer scams coming out.I am not sure where it is going to end as still the credit card crisis is still to surface.
Let us see, where we land............but on optimist note let me write, it has to end somewhere.....
Thursday, February 19, 2009
I have been writing on this stocks since long.The catch was Srie stake in Quippo which has interest in Oil and Oil Rigs and it self a fundamental co.
Today the price of SREI INFRA has come down so low that it is in state of a throw away price category.
The recent annoucement that I have pasted here for my blog readers is one of a kind , a rare order worth 6,000 cr which is won by Srei consortium cos.
This also shows where Srei Infra has collobarated with the overseas cos to have the necessary expertise.....
One thing I would like to write is ,maybe my picks are not working now but when they will pick up the momentum they gives phenominal returns.They run in circuits.
Like once a reader named Shree wrote that he bought Kwality Dairy on my call at below Rs 20, and when the whole market is down ,Kwality Dairy is touching new highs and has crossed THREE figure mark and is over 100!
I agree my calls and my reading of the market has been wrong since start of last year but remember my words , the stocks which are now available at throw away price are worth investing for a period of 2-3 yrs.
Bad days can't remain forever and the tide willturn one day.
Buy stocks for 2-3 yrs perspective and I am sure one can earn big money.I really mean big as big as 10 times or 20 times.
I just try to give calls on the parametres I have written in past"How to find a multibager" and I always try to look at these parametres to find a multibagger.
The reason for recomending Kwality Dairy then, maybe a couple of yrs back,was the promoters stake which was very high at over 80%.Though the co was not doing any good in NP term but when promoters have confidence in the co as they were holding over 80% stake that was a trigger for me to give a call.Moreover we all eat Kwality Icecream , be it Winter or Summer!
Kwality is a brand product.
And that came out to be TRUE in every sense.I am happy that someone is earning from my call when people are losing in market.
Srei Infra at rs 37 is a buy.It may go down from here but a single order of Rs 6,000 cr is no less.Even L&T can envy for this type of orders.
The only thing is needed now here in this scenario is CONVICTION.......Have conviction....
I wish this type of bear market last longer for atleast Dec 2009 so that I can gather money and buy my favourite stocks at throw away price.So that I can gather money and buy them.Very few have the liberty like Mitzz who can buy stocks at their will.....I envy him......Lol.......just kidding.....I am the happiest person when someone earns in stock market,Though it seems easy to earn in stockmarket but it is not so...as almost all have gone through that....
The only thing I would like to write that keep a watch on all those stocks that I have listed, past and recent ones.They are all capable of giving phenominal returns.
Srei Infra soars on light rail order
Shares of SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE spurted 14.62 per cent to Rs 37.25, after Srei-led consortium won the countrys first light rail transit system. The Rs 6,000 crore project would be developed by a consortium led by Srei with Czech-based Amex International and West Bengal Transport Infrastructure Development Corporation. The project would be executed in two phases. The stock made an intraday high of Rs 46.9 and a low of Rs 31.8 with trading volumes of 46.6 lakh shares (about eight-times higher than its two-week average).
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Published on Fri, Feb 13, 2009 at 20:16 , Updated at Fri, Feb 13, 2009 at 21:51 Source : CNBC-TV18
The Securities and Exchange Board of India has barred Shankar Sharma from dealing in securities for one-year. The order pertains to a 2001 investigation and comes into force immediately after four weeks. Sharma indulged in fictitious trading, did not cooperate with Sebi, and indulged in concerted attempt to intefere with markets, it said.
Meanwhile, the market regulator has disposes off the show cause notice against Devina Mehra of First Global.
Commenting on the issue, Devina Mehra said they were only asking Sebi for the probe report which is not providing documents. She said they will appeal against Sebi order on Shankar Sharma.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Devina Mehra on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video.
Q: What do you make of this order from Sebi at this point in time?
A: It is patently illegal for one. It doesn’t keep to Sebi’s own laws. This is the same thing that has been going on since 2001. The whole thing started with the allegation that we had brought down the market in mid-February to mid-March in 2001. As we have’ve got the data out of the Sebi through RTI because they resisted it all along, we found that we were not among even the top 50 sellers during that period.
In fact, we were buyers and we could not have brought down the market. The thing was that at that point Sebi had show caused both the broking company that we own as well as Shankar Sharma and me individually. The whole process was gone through and both individuals were exonerated and orders were passed only against the companies. Thereafter even the order against the companies did not hold when we went and appealed in SAT. So, those were also struck down. By which they had again started this process of again showcausing us on the same material which is really absurd.
On top of that, when we went to court they actually filed an affidavit saying that if the order against the company does not stand, then obviously the show cause against the directors would fall. Even so, as all of you know, the orders against the companies did not stand. Yet the regulator has gone ahead and passed an order against an individual on the same material. In fact, they have tried to bring in another material, which is not allowed as per Sebi’s own regulations, because you need to have an investigation report showing that this material has been investigated before an order or a show cause can be released.
Q: There are two points in the Sebi order, one is that this pertains largely to 10 scrips in which transactions happened. Its allegation is that there was a circular trading, there were synchronised deals that happened. I would like your reaction on that? Point number two is that the regulator made several references to the fact that post the Bombay High Court order where they were supposed to serve a show cause notice, there was not much cooperation that came in through Shankar Sharma in terms of responding to those show causes and taking the opportunity of personal hearing. What is your reaction on both these points?
A: The whole point was that when a show cause notice or for that matter any legal proceeding is without basis or without jurisdiction, you have to first question the jurisdiction and the regulator or whatever the authority is supposed to first satisfy you on that point that they do have the jurisdiction because you cannot submit yourself to a process that is without jurisdiction or not within the law. So, we were only asking them for example for the investigation report on which this was based because that is a requirement as per Sebi’s own law.
However, the regulator does not want to go by its own law. So, they never satisfied us or gave us material on that and just went ahead with this.
As far as charges per se is concerned, this is a time when as a member of the Bombay Stock Exchange there were limits on your trading volume, which was a reason why all of us had multiple memberships. Our firm itself had three memberships with the BSE just because of that limit. But there were times when because of your clients’ trading volumes you could even be exceeding those limits on three cards, which is why at times you would need somebody else’s limit and Niraml Bang had eight memberships on the BSE. So that was a natural place to go to just shift some of your positions. There was nothing more to it than that.
Q: Are you going to go into appeal on this order?
A: Of course. You have to remember another thing that this order has been stayed in advance by the Bombay High Court. So, that was precisely to give us that window to go into appeal. So, obviously we are going to appeal this order.
I was asked why am writing against Shankar Shrama?I don't remember who asked that....
My view is vindicated .He is charged for fictituous trading.What is that?That is what KP was barred for.KP did for bull market and SS did for bear market breaking the prices through fictitious trading and remember this is for the case in 2001.After 2-3 yrs there can be more cases for the debacle in 2008 as well.Mark my words.
No one has taken bath in milk all are same.
It is very obvious that SS wants to break the market and that is why he use to advocate bearish view and some of his arguements are real absurd.I have discuss one here about his arguement on Aban LLyod.
He also feels that Ril Ind,SBI ,Bharti and likes are still way above their 2003 low and unless they touches that mark , he says we cannot say we are in bear market.
Just a couple of days back I read in TOI that FII's holding has come down to the level of 2003.That is a great news.If the holding has come down at 2003 then it means the over ownership is over.DII's now owns more then FII's in A gr shares.
FII holdings in Indian cos down to 2003 level
13 Feb 2009, 0111 hrs IST, TNN
MUMBAI: Foreign investors, the most influential investor group in the Indian market, have reduced their holdings in Indian companies drastically in
the last four quarters and are back to their December 2003 holding levels. However, domestic institutional institutions (DIIs), led by insurance companies, have cushioned part of the FII exodus. And now, for the first time ever, DIIs own more than what retail investors hold in Indian companies, an analysis by a Citigroup arm of the latest disclosed shareholding patterns showed. The report also pointed out that for the first time in four years, DIIs and retail investors, that excludes promoters, own more than FIIs. In BSE 500 stocks, which make up for 94% of the all BSE listed companies, DIIs now hold 8.86%, while retail investors hold 8.64%. Retail investors, who were holding 16.4% of the BSE 500 companies in March 2001, have mostly been shedding their positions since then. Sebi data also shows that in 2008, FIIs took $13 billion (Rs 54,500 crore) out of the Indian market, a trend reversal from a $17 billion (Rs 72,700 crore) net inflow in 2007. Compared to this, DIIs -- which include mutual funds, insurance companies, banks and other financial institutions -- pumped in nearly Rs 14,000 crore in 2008, more than double the Rs 6,400 crore they had invested in 2007. The Citi report titled Back to...2003' said the last quarter's sell-off, when about 1.4% of FIIs holdings were sold, brought it down to 15.5%, the same level where it was five years ago. This is the same level where it was during the early days of the last bull market. In value terms, foreign ownership is still higher at $94 billion than in December 2003, but the level is almost of an age gone by,'' the report said. The landmark shift in ownership data, showing DIIs holding more than the combined holding of retail investors, could also be a sign of a maturing market. Domestic investors (ex-promoters) now collectively own more than foreigners for the first time in four years. The big gainers continue to be the insurance companies who now own 5% of India Inc,'' the report said. Foreign funds are known to concentrate their holdings in blue chips and the latest data corroborates the same. As of last quarter, FIIs held 22.5% in the 30 sensex stocks, while retail investors held 8.6%, insurance companies 6.4% and mutual funds 4.1%.
Monday, February 2, 2009
I have been dealt with lots of arguements whether there is something like LUCK or not....my previous post was on that.
I am believer of LUCK which I have written in this post as well......
I have brought two incidence here ...........which I have written here.....if anyone have any arguements , counter arguements please do write but please read each and every sentence properly and then answer.I don't wants arguements which are incomplete......
Read both the instances properly.......they are true.........
One of my relative were living at a place near to Pedder Rd for years in Mumbai.
There was some flats building taking place at Peddar Rd but his flat was so big with 4-5 bedrooms that in no way he needed a second one and hence he didn't book any nor he has money to pay thereafter.
But one Dalal use to come everyday to his house and stand in his living room daily around 9 am and after speaking "Saahab ,give Rs 5000/- and my Uncle use to say I am not going to give"......and after hearing that that man use to leave his house.
Then same thing use to happen dsaily and daily my uncle will say same thing and he goes back empty.One day my Aunty asked my Uncle why this man is coming to their house and why he is asking for money and why you are saying NO?
My uncle explained to my Aunty that he is a Dalal and he is here for money to book a flat at certain place and he wants me to have one.That Dalal says "I wants you(uncle) to have a flat where he is dealing."Means Dalal is keen to sell or book a flat for my uncle......Dalal was telling him "ek bar booking ka paisa dedo then rest of the money you pay as you get"
Well, the real thing to note is Dalal kept coming to his house untill he got the money.....what will you call it?
My uncle never intended to buy a flat anywhere then in Mumbai but Dalal kept on coming.Ultimately my Aunty said to my uncle "Give him Rs 5000 so that he atleast stops coming and sitting on our head daily"Usko panch hazar dedo aur chotkara karo us se...
And my uncle gave Rs 5000 and stopped him coming and ultimately that flat fetch him 2cr as the prices went skyhigh....after paying for the full amt when it was needed....
Now what can be said of this ?Luck or calculation or planning or what.....I call it a LUCK......paisa milne wala tha ....mila ....I believe in LUCK...
This is a true example and not a story.....You may believe it or not.......
I remember one more incidence.......
This is also true......
Ashokkumar was a very great and very famous actor.Those who are old as much as over 50 yrs should be knowing what populairty AshokKumar had .....if not then one can ask their father or grand father.........
Ashokkumar passed his B.Sc and came to Mumbai as he didn't get any job and his brother-in-law , Shashdhar Mukerjee called him to Mumbai as he told his Director and Producer , Himanshu Roy that he has a Sala(Bro-in-law) who is B.Sc and needs work and Himanshu Roy was fond of employing person who are graduates.A graduates in 1930's had great value then.......and that is how AshokKumar got a job through his Banevi(Bro-in-law)....
One day what happened , the Hero of the film didn't turn up and didn't come the next day as well.Dir Himanshu Roy went mad and he suddenly saw Ashokkumar and he said he will be my Hero of this film.....and he called Ashokkumar and told him that he will the Hero of his next film...........
If anyone would have heard this he would have gone mad that he is becoming Hero......but Ashokkumar never wanted to become a hero.......remember he never wanted to become a Hero of a film......he was not willing ........so what he did?He went to a Sallon and shaved off all his hair and become bald so that Himanshu Roy drops him as a hero and select someone else......and he went with a bald head to the studio...........Lol.........Any other director would have selected another person as a Hero but Himanshu Roy said........I will wait for his Hair to grow.......and ultimately Ashokkumar had to become a hero against his will.......AGAINST HIS WILL.......
and then Achut Kanya become a HIT ...his first release and then followed Kagan, Badhan, Jhula....and then FILM "Kismat".....which make a record which was broken only by Sholay after many decades.......running in theatre.....
Can anyone tell me what can be explained for this incidence ..........though Ashokkumar never intended to become a Film Hero he was taken in by force......no intention ever....and his popularity was far far bigger then Rajesh Khanna or recent Amitabh Bacchan.....now......
I am a great believer of LUCK.............
I can give numerous examples....like this ..........
Views invited.......Read each and every sentence properly and then give answers.......