Monday, February 27, 2012

I am in India..............

I have to rush here due to some circumstances.......I will be here for 3 more weeks......please do bear with me if I am unable to write here.....

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Have courage to take loss.........

I have been writing time and again that take loss.One need to be ready to take loss.It is not all profit in market. It is not said casualy that if one makes 20% return in market then you are a good investor.
Remember one thing.There is no exit in stock market.Once you are in, you never come out.That is why I keep on saying, don't keep on putting all your money in market.It is not a good idea to put all your money, rather saving , in stock market.Keep some money in fixed deposit that one will need in bad times.Never borrow money and invest that is a very bad idea.Hope of making the loss is very bad thing to do.It never helps.If atall one wants to make up the loss, invest in bluechips which have been beaten down or pick good Cos with good management and good future.Investing in smallcaps never helps or  averaging will never help.Once the stock is down it is very hard to go up in next bull run.
Either you keep on infusing money to recover the loss or you keep on putting money to invest more.
Every new bull run has new favourite stock to give multibaggers returns.
Once a stock becomes a multibagger and starts showing loss, it is gone.Some other stocks takes its place.
If one has bought a stock at high price because of whatever earnings or great future it had and then in bear market it goes down, and it starts showing bad results , then most probably it is out of favour stock.
Why players will let investor make up the loss?Once small investors are in at high price , why they would let small investors make their money back?Had they gone mad that they would let small investor come out of it and they buy it and take a loss?...NO...that is never possible. Ye bahut hi simple bat hai .....ek bar small investor ko phasa diya hai , penny stock mian jo bahut upper gaya hai , koi story ki vajah se, usko phir se upper kyon le jayenge?Pagal kutte ne kata hai un operators ko, ki wahi stock wapas upper le jake , small investors ko nikal ne ka mauka dega?Vo tumko kyon nikale ga jis main tum high price pe leke phas chuke ho?Unless, they have interest in certain stocks, they will never take interest in it again.
Understand the market.How players play it.Our makret and even world market is played at the whims of players.Have you seen what happened on Wednesday last week?In 1 hr market showed a volatilty of 400 points and that is 125 points in nifty! It still says that our market is in hand of players and it will remain forever like that.
Always be ready to take a loss.Sell stock as soon as it goes down by 15-20% unless you are convinced about the future of the stock.
I have been saying time and again, it is not easy to make money in stock market and it is a dangerous game.Even when a master like Nemish Shah says that 2 or 3 stocks can give huge return out of 10 , then what to say of ourselves?We have seen that Nemish Shah of Enam Sec, hold Rico Auto since many years, he holds Super Spinning since many years, he holds Kar Mobiles since many years, he is holding Investment and Precision Casting since many years and still they haven't run at all, and he is the master in terms of even Rakesh Jhunjhunwala then just imagine our fate in stock market!Even Peter Lynch has said the same thing.Not all stock gives multibagger return.
Try to understand the risk in investing in Midcap and Smallcaps.......
Only 2 or 3 stocks become successful call out of 10 and that happens with the Masters who are  there in the market everyday and know the pulse of the market and what is happening in our market and internatioanl market then just imgane our fate!
One need to be ready to take the loss and sell the stock and should be able to buy something else which can give better returns.Get ready to take the loss of 50% OR  even 60% and switch over and make sure you buy a good Co.If you buy again a penny stock you will see the same fate.
Friends, I am no GOD. I also make mistakes and hence don't take my word as a final word.Pathar ki lakir nahi hai jo main likhta hun.
Loads of stocks has not performed on my given call.It is all how Co does and what market thinks.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Market can surprise for whole year..........

There are things which has come up which makes me believe that market can surprise investors for whole year.
Well, what I am writing is somewhere I read and hence I would not say that it is my observation.But when I chekced the history I found them good and hence I am writing those traits here.

1) 2012 is a leap year and market has moved up in leap year.

2) If  January HIGH is crossed then market remain up for the whole year.

I put more importance on the second one  because in 2008 even it was a leap year market tanked but barring that leap year market went up for other leap year and here comes the 2nd trait and that is if January high is crossed then market remains bullish.

Well the other reason for me becoming bullish is PMO ( Prime Minister Office) has  started taking measures for bringing back the eonomy back on track.That is a huge positive for me....and that is one of the prime reason why I have become bullish.PMO has come out with a list which needs to be done for economy.

I have written many times here, the government needs to take steps and we will be back to normal.

FII has invested some 10,000 cr in the month of January and that has helped rupee coming back below 50 and should be back to 45-46 soon.

That is why I feel that market can surprise investors for whole year.

Another trend that I saw on Wednesday this week makes me feel that  BULLS ARE BACK.I may be wrong in my reading but that is what I feel.What happened on Wednesday , I use to see in past years in 2005-2006-2007.....
If one can observe , on Wednesday this week, market was up by over 100 points and suddenly around 1.30 pm makret tanked and went down in negative territory remained there for almost and hour and then made a comeback after 2.30 and by the end of the day it was up by 83 points.
That is intra day I call it  a intraday correction where for once market players will make people think that now market is gone and profit booking has started for the huge runup and scare investors to sell everything in F&O and also in delivary.That is a ploy to deceive investors so that those who bought at lower levels will sell thinking that sell now and buy lateron 20-30% down.But NO, that didn't happen and market made a comeback the same day.
These trend I have seen in 2005-2006-2007 where market will go down in between the day and will close in positive territory gain at the end of the day .The trend I am observing says that Bulls are trying to see what they can do , whether they can do what they wants and after a very long time they saw that they can do it and that has added the confidence that now is the time for them to take the reins in their hands.These also implies that bears has become week as bulls can move the market at their will........
It is still at a vey nascent stage but Bulls are exprimenting and once they found back their confidence then no looking back.
I feel that corrections will keep on  coming up with positive bias ..........

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

U.S. to Be Free from Foreign Oil by 2030:

By Morgan Korn Daily Ticker
Oil and gas company BP recently released its annual Energy Outlook and many of its projections should be viewed with concern.

According to the company, carbon emissions will increase 28 percent by 2030, a dire forecast for those trying to reverse the effects of climate change. Moreover, renewable energy sources — such as wind and solar — will contribute less than 10 percent of global energy output in the coming years despite growing at least eight percent a year between now and 2030.

The growth in emerging economies like China and Brazil will lead to a 39 percent increase in global energy demand by 2030, BP forecasts. China will become increasingly reliant on foreign oil, importing as much as 80 percent of its oil needs in the next 20 years. But it would be second to Europe, which is expected to import 94 percent of its oil and 80 percent of the natural gas it consumes. India could very likely take in 91 percent of its crude oil from abroad.

Alternatively, the United States could become almost entirely energy independent by 2030, says BP. As the country expands its domestic natural gas production, the U.S. will buy less foreign oil, causing imports to fall to levels not seen since 1990. Natural gas production has come under intense scrutiny because of its environmental risks. The drilling process used to bring the gas to the surface is widely known as "fracking" and it involves pumping sand, chemicals and gallons of water underground to break apart the rock and release the gas. The Obama administration recently gave a stinging rebuke to the industry by rejecting the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline, which would have brought 700,000 barrels per day of supply from Canada's oil sands projects to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. In last month's State of the Union Address, Obama said he supported natural gas investment but pressed for more regulations to ensure the safety of natural gas drilling.

"We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly one hundred years, and my Administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy," Obama said in his address. "Experts believe this will support more than 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade. And I'm requiring all companies that drill for gas on public lands to disclose the chemicals they use. America will develop this resource without putting the health and safety of our citizens at risk."

The U.S. has been pursuing energy independence since the 1973 Arab oil embargo forced a shortage of oil imports and caused gasoline prices to skyrocket at the pump. Bloomberg reports that the growing U.S. energy industry could fulfill the country's energy demands in 20 years. Natural gas production has increased 11 percent from 2007 to 2010 and domestic crude production has risen to 5.7 million barrels a day - its highest output in eight years, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

BP predicts natural gas will be the fastest growing fossil fuel by 2030, growing 2.1 percent per year. Energy from coal will increase by 1.2 percent each year, contributing more than 25 percent of total energy output by 2030.

Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer-prize winning author of "The Prize" whose new book "The Quest" explores energy security, renewable sources and the world's shrinking oil supply, says the North American energy production revolution taking place could alter the marketplace forever.

You've got a Western Hemisphere that by 2030 may not be importing any oil from the Eastern Hemisphere," Yergin tells The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task in the above video.

Yergin says even as the U.S. and other North American countries reduce their imports of oil and become more energy efficient, countries like China and India are consuming more energy as their citizens enter the working class and can afford Western luxuries like a personal car.

"While they [China, India] are increasingly concerned about climate change, they're more concerned about economic growth and poverty in their countries," he asserts. "They both rely heavily on coal and will increase their consumption of coal. This growth in greenhouse gases is riding on the back of global economic growth."

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

India Glycols declares another excellent results..........

India Glycols has remained my favourite stocks.
I have been recomending from day one of my blog started.
It has come out with another excellent results.But one needs to read everything when one see the ressults on bse site.
I know many would have not seen the notes at the end of the results.Make a habit to read what the notes says.
The notes at the end of the results says that as rupee as appreciated by Feb 3rd 2012, the foriegn loss taken into account of  Rs 48 cr can be reversed and that will spike up the bottomline by 17-18 eps in last qr.
I think for 3 qr, the eps has already reached 27 and if we see again an EPS for 8-10 in last qr , that will make 37-40 EPS and if we add 48cr which can be and will be reversed as I see rupee not going back to 54 level then India Glycols can end the year with an EPS of around 55-60.
The negative in India Glycols is a huge debt of 1400 cr and I have faith in the management that they will trim it down as much and as early as possible.

I have mentioned Intec Capital here maybe only one or two times and Intec has also come out with excellent results.I like the sector which it is in and also feel that Sanjeev Goyal is a dynamic CM.

I would like to mention here Jubilant Ind which I have recomended in the list which I gave on the eve of Christmas.
It has also posted excellent results and has gone up from around 170 to 220-222 , but I feel it is still a buy at this level.Jubilant Ind is grossly undervalued in the sense that it is posting excellent results qr to qr and an excellent management at the helm of affairs......

Friends,It now looks like we will not see 3900 now.Maybe we will not see forever.But I can't guarentee you.After all it is market.FII's has invested 10,000 cr in the month of January.
I feel that one should start investing in SIP manner where there is a value.
I have written about looking at B L Kashyap and Cronimet Alloy.I would like to draw the attention ofmy readers towards HBL Syetem Ltd which is at 17 and has consolidated for long at that level and I feel that it should now go up.
B L Kashyap Ltd is an excellent Infra Co which is available at 130 if we take it at 10 paid up where 70% stake is held by promoters.So is HBL System Ltd where again promoters holds more then 70% stake and are increasing the holding if one can have a look at the SHP.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Stride Arcolab...making new HIGH....Rs 555.00

I gave a call on Stride Aroclab in Jan 2010 at Rs 234.....

Stride Arcolab got a Windfall amount of Rs 2000 by selling generic operation to other Co.

"Strides Arcolab Sells its Generic Pharmaceuticals Operations in Australia and Southeast Asia to Watson Pharmaceuticals for AU$ 375 Million

24/01/12 11:59

Strides Arcolab Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated January 24, 2012 titled " Strides Arcolab Sells its Generic Pharmaceuticals Operations in Australia and Southeast Asia to Watson Pharmaceuticals for AU$ 375 Million". "

Only the other day I saw on one of the stockmarket website that one of the analyst gave a sell call saying that Mcap is biggger then the sales.
That was a wrong analysis as can be seen that market gave a thumbs up for getting a milestone amt of Rs 2000 cr.For a Co whose eq is 58 cr , one can understand what Rs 2000 cr means.
Stride Arcolab is becoming cash rich Co.
I remember after I gave a call here in Jan 2010, RJ took stake in it .I don't say we need to follow RJ, but when a person of that calibre take stake in one of my many calls, e.g Srei etc....then we have to take note of it.
RJ has made mistakes in past, like Tata Infomedia, Aptech and other but still he is one of the most successful investor in India.
I feel that Stride Arcolab has a long way to go and should touch 1k and even more.

Vishnu Chem has come out with a poor results citing reason that the Co did not get Chrome Ore , the raw material , for the product in Dec qr and the notes under the results says that Vishnu Chem has been able to get Chrome Ore from second half of Jan this year.
This says that management is not working on raw material availability and that is a major concern to me.How can management can't take care of raw material?
Well on the ligther part I can say that they could have called Cronimet Alloy mamagement and taken care of that as Cronimet Alloy is in same Chrome Ore field.
Now that open up a new scarcity of Chrome Ore and oppertunity for Cronimet Alloy and hence I think at Rs 20.00 , 2 paid up, Cronimet Alloy gives a good entry oppertunity for us, as even if we put 10 paid price , the price becomes Rs 100,which I feel is cheap.
For Vishnu Chem, I leave to my readers to take decision what to do with it.They mat decide to hold on or switchover to other stock but personally I didn't like the reason given by the management of lack of raw material( Chrome Ore).If the management wants to deliver results then they should have taken care of that.Only if results will come good then and then only market will discount it hihger and then only QIP can take place at higher level of price and then only the huge debt can be resolved and bottomline will soars up.
Well, these can also be a gimmick of management for 1 qr and maybe next qr can come good as they already said that they have been able to get  Chrome Ore from mid Jan this year.
Now let me peep in readers mind.
They think how they can sell Vishnu Chem at 30-40-50% Steep loss.....the mind is not ready to do it.Taking a huge loss is always difficult .Mind always opposes it and hence many times we ends up having a laggard in our PF.
Well, here is my way of thinking.
Try to find stocks which have been down by 40-50% and switch over from Vishnu,if one wants to do it that way.
I gave a call of BL Kashyap at 21 .52 week high is 27 and stock is trading at 13, means 50% discount.One can buy B L Kashyap.
Cronimet Alloy 52 week high was 36 and now quoting at 20.That is another stock one can buy from switching over from Vishnu Chem.
There are many more such stocks.Find them ....
Friends,decision needs to be taken and that too fast.Decide what you want to do and act on it.......