Wednesday, June 29, 2011

India invites US to help finance infrastructure projects

, On Wednesday 29 June 2011, 12:47 AM
Washington, June 29 (IANS) India has invited US investors to help finance big infrastructure projects in the fast-developing nation as India is planning to raise $1 trillion in infrastructure financing by 2017.
'There is new opportunity for US investors for work in this area,' Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee told a joint press conference with US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner at the end of the second meeting of the US-India Economic and Financial Partnership here.
'American companies still face barriers in India in sectors such as banking, insurance, manufacturing, multi-brand retail and infrastructure,' Geithner said. Easing those barriers 'would be an important step toward integrating our economies,' he said.
Reserve Bank of India Governor D. Subbarao and US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also participated in the meetings Monday and Tuesday.
A joint statement issued at the end of talks said India and the United States have agreed to work together to expand trade and investment links between their two economies, and to develop and strengthen their financial systems.
They would also 'work together in the G-20 on an effective mutual assessment process to bring about strong, sustained, and balanced global growth.'
The joint statement said 'leveraging their combined knowledge, experience, and shared interests, the two agreed to a robust agenda' for the coming year that includes deeper engagement in three key areas: Macroeconomic challenges,
Financial sector reforms and Infrastructure finance.
The United States, the joint statement said, is 'committed to making the investments in technology, skills, and infrastructure necessary to maintain and enhance US competitiveness in the global economy.'
On its part, 'India intends to take steps to marshal private and public saving to meet the infrastructure needs of a rapidly growing Indian economy,' it said.

My Comments:
That is the right step forward taken by India.I have discussed previously here that if China can open the door for American Co for helping build Infrastructure then why shouldn't India can do?
Well, wiser counsel prevailed and better late then never.......

Is this a Relief Rally?

No friends, this is not a relief rally.According to me the rally we are seeing is not a flash in a pan.When market moves up for more then 3 days , then that is not a relief rally.
Relief rally do not last for more then 2 days.Relief rally peters out in 2 days because it is a relief rally.
Market is smelling something and we are not able to understand it.I recently wrote here about S&P analysis that Commodities will correct by as much as 75% and I wrote that if we average it we can see commodities coming down by 30-35% .
And to my analysis , market is smelling that.I feel that Crude can come down to even below $80 and that will lower down the inflation.Inflation is one and only culprit for market not going up and if Oil comes down and thereby inflation comes down, then the Int rate will also come down and that will boost the sector like Auto and Banking.
According to me market is headed high.Small and midcaps are battered badly and I feel that is a wonderful chance for the investor to pick up some excellent fundamentals stocks.
I am seeing the prices coming down  as much as I have seen in late 2008 and early 2009.Lap up this oppertunity.Market is giving a wonderful chance to buy those stocks.
Market real bull run is yet to start.We have also read what the Indian Warren Buffet said in one of his recent interview.
Don't be too skepticle about the market.Buy when one sees value and actually I feel that I am seeing lots of value in market.
I wrote in one of my recent post don't ask too many questions.If you see a bargain you don't need to ask anyone.Just go ahead and buy it.
Coming back to market, I feel that it is poised for higher trajectory.This is not a relief rally.Market has got the headwinds and it is exhibiting it since 4-5 days.

Monday, June 27, 2011

IntraSoft Technology Ltd......CMP Rs.62.00.........Value BUY? 123

How many of us use  ?
If the answer is over 70-80% here at my blog then I can say that this Co is having a bright future.
Well, I while exploring Internet and our market I found this GEM.I have seen people sends greetings to their Loved ones, Parents,friends etc and the greetings usually is from 123
This is the most sought site for sending greetings by Indians as  well as all over the world.
e-Mailing e-cards comes free for the user and that is the catch here.People like to have it FREE .Sending ecards free of cost is what all wants and that is what Intrasoft Tech is giving to the people but thereby the Co is able to garner the revenue from Ads.

There was an annoucement when the latest results was annouced.

Read it :

On an annual consolidated basis, the company posted an income growth of 46.8%. From Rs. 2920.28 lacs in FY2010, it went up to Rs. 4285.55 lacs in the current year. Profit after tax (PAT) has grown by 14.8% from Rs. 882.83 lacs to Rs. 1013.14 lacs.
Expressing satisfaction at the performance of the company, Mr. Arvind Kajaria, Managing Director, said, "Overall, the financial year has been quite productive. The year witnessed the launch of three exciting new features – 123Greetings Connect, 123Greetings Studio and 123Greetings Invites. All the introductions received excellent user response. The year saw an addition of 5,650 cards being added to the greetings website and introduction of innovative features like the instant ‘Thank You’ and ‘Quick Send’. We have also launched 6 new pages displaying the top ecards of Most Popular, Most Viewed, Highest Rated, Latest Additions section, and introduced ‘More’ feature in the home page making accessibility easy for the users. While the new launches and other investments have laid the foundation for future growth and profitability, they have not allowed profits to grow as significantly as income in the current quarter and financial year. But with 123Greetings Connect attracting 1,144,196 subscribers and 8,940 users registering at 123Greetings Studio to put their artworks, we believe it is only a matter of time that the growth is monetized and converted into profits and consequently shareholder value."

•'123Greetings Invites' launched in the previous quarter has started gaining encouraging user response. As on March 31, 2011 a total of 1,998 users created 2,322 events and sent 17,223 Invites using this feature.
•The Gifting Solutions initiative has started gaining traction with several new vendors coming on board. The increase in products and brands has helped attract new customers that have taken the topline to new levels.
•From 571,156 registered users in the previous quarter, 123Greetings Connect users have almost doubled. On March 31, 2011 the total number of registered users stood at 1,144, 196. •Users at '123Greetings Studio' uploaded over 800 ecards in this quarter.
•The technical team have been continuously analyzing the feedback from the users and are already working on add-ons that are expected to further enhance the usage of the new initiatives.

Meanwhile, ComScore Media Metrix, in its monthly analysis of U.S. websites in February 2011, has rated among the top gainers in the e-card category. With the total number of visitors rising to 2.4 million, witnessed a growth of 29% as against the e-cards category index which registered a growth of 10% making it the fourth top-gaining category by percentage change in unique visitors (U.S). The total number of visits to e-card sites stood at 19.2 million."The figures indicate that both the micro and macro outlook continues to remain robust. The investments that we have made this quarter will help us scale our business and deliver long term shareholder value," concludes Mr. Kajaria.
About 123Greetings:
123Greetings is the world's leading online destination for human expressions reaching over 91 million unique users annually. Drawing from its tag line "Giving Life to your Expressions" the service inculcates a sense of personalization that relates to the users on an emotional level. Its offering of over 20,000 greeting cards covers a mix of 3,000 seasonal & everyday categories. Its applications & widgets for social networks & blogs allow users ubiquitous access across multiple devices and platforms.

About IntraSoft Technologies Limited:
IntraSoft Technologies Limited owns and operates

one of the most visited electronic greeting cards website in the world. The Company operates through its wholly owned subsidiaries in various geographies, which are,lnc.(USA), One Two Three Greetings (India) Pvt. Ltd. (India) & 123Greetings (Singapore) Pte Ltd. (Singapore).

In the above annoucement it is written that 123greetings has been the top gainer in ecard category.When  the ecard category is witnessing 10% growth 123greeting is able to show a growth of 29%.
These are all Internet user numbers and more the users and clicking andf registering more ads revenue.The whole model is based on how many clicks on the site and thereby how many are able to have a look at the Ads shown on the website and if 123greetings is showing No 1 growth then I think this stock needs a second look.
It was delisted and people has burnt the fingure but it got again listed in early April 2010 and on the very day it got listed , it made a high of 167.Now quoting at Rs 62, I feel this is a stock which needs to be looked upon.

Brand name....Yup....that is what I am seeing here.

We all know the site named  and we also use this site to send greetings and feelings but we were not knowing which Co it belongs to.
Now we know the  site 123greetings belongs to which Co .Oh , well it is an Indian Co?That is great.

The things what I like is management is constantly putting efforts to scale up the growth.

59% is held by the promoters and 26% is held by the private Corp bodies and HNI's means 86% is held closly and only 14% is with the public.
Well friends I have done my job.Now it is your job to do DD and take your call............what one need to do is take a call on how the website will show the growth and whether this type of revenue model will last long or not.How the Co will be able to coup up with other websites same like this.

Thursday, June 23, 2011


The CAG Draft Report on the audit of the Production Sharing Contracts for the on-shore and off-shore oil and gas blocks is now widely being circulated in the media, showing once again the unholy nexus between the UPA and big capital in the country.
The CAG has shown that the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) allowed Reliance Industries and other private operators to gold-plate the capital costs of the plant allowing them to make huge profits. The Production Sharing Contract pegged the profit share of the private operators and the Government to something called an Investment Multiplier, which meant that higher the capital cost, the larger the share of the profits of the private parties.

The capital costs in the KG Basin D-6 Block went up from $2.4 billion in the initial contract to $8.5 billion. This was the pattern followed in other gas and oil fields also, involving Reliance, Cairn Energy and others. In all this, the modus operandi was to submit a bid which shows a certain capital cost and during the operation of the contract, inflate the capital cost by a huge amount with the connivance of DGH and the Ministry of Petroleum. The Management Committee in which the Government had 2 nominees out of 4 played no oversight role in such inflation of contracts.

For inflating the capital costs, the familiar route is of course over-invoice through sweetheart deals from “friendly” sub-contractors, sometimes even a Reliance family company. While the CAG has not computed the loss to the exchequer, it has held that the Government has suffered large losses on this account. It has also held that the Production Sharing Contact being followed by the Government of India has very little controls on the investment costs, unlike for example, Bangladesh, where the Management Committee which has 50% Government nominees as in India, has to approve any expenditure above $500,000.

The CAG Draft Report has also brought out that while the contract envisaged that if the company did not develop certain areas within the contracted area within the stipulated time, it should have been relinquished. Instead, the DGH and the Ministry of Petroleum allowed the whole area to be designated as “discovery area” in violation of the contract.

As we shall show below, there are two sets of scams that have taken place, CAG having looked at only one of them. One is of course various violations of the Production Sharing Contract as pointed out by CAG; the second is the high price of Reliance gas — $4.2 per Million BTU (MBTU) — set in 2007 by the Empowered Group of Ministers headed by Pranab Mukherjee. Reliance itself admitted in the Court case between it and NTPC/Anil Ambani Group that its production cost was $1.43 per MBTU. Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) had initially agreed to supply gas at $2.34 to both NTPC and Anil Ambani Group, which it subsequently reneged once the EGOM set the price at $4.2. It might be noted that by its own calculations, RIL would have made profits of 50% if it had supplied gas at $2.34.

Gold-plating Capital Costs in KG D6 Block and the role of DGH

The Gas and oil field in question is known as KG-DWN-98/3 (Block D-6), and consists of 8,100 sq. Km. of off-shore area in the Krishna Godavari basin. Block D-6 was awarded to Reliance Industries (90%)and Niko Resources Ltd (10%) under New Exploration Licensing Policy 1 (NELP-1) bidding round under a Production Sharing Contract. Initially, the D6 was to produce 40 million MMSCD (Million Cubic meters per day), which was subsequently revised to 80 MMSCD. The initial development cost in the contract was $2.4 billion which was revised through an “addendum” in 2006 to $5.2 billion in the first phase and $3.3 billion in the second phase. CAG has also observed that the $3.3 billion for the second phase has every possibility of being hiked up in the same way as the first phase.

The Production Sharing Contract (PSC) that the Government had struck with RIL in 2000 envisaged that there would be something called “cost petroleum”, which would cover Government royalty of 5%, operating costs, the costs of exploration, and the development cost of producing gas. Till the the capital costs are recovered, 90% of the petroleum/gas sold would be considered as “cost” petroleum and the rest 10% would be “profit” petroleum.

The catch here is that proportion of profit sharing changes depending on the amount of cost recovered to the total cost, something that the contract calls as Investment Multiplier. The proportion of shares between RIL and Government is pegged to this Investment Multiplier. Till the major portion of the costs are recovered, Reliance gets the major share of the “profit” petroleum. It is only after the major part of the costs have been recovered that the Investment Multiplier begins to increase and so does Government’s share, which is pegged to this Investment Multiplier. That is why increasing capital costs helps Reliance retain a much larger share of the profits in the initial years, while the Government gets its share only in the last phase, when the production starts to decline.

Reliance therefore can make a double killing — by over invoicing the capital costs, it can skim money from the top. In addition, by ensuring that the capital costs take a longer time to recover, it takes out its major share of the profit right in the beginning.

If it was only a question of getting money later, it could be argued that Government has not suffered a loss, only postponed its earnings. But here is the problem. In financial accounting, money earned later has to be discounted by an amount equivalent to what we would have earned if we had put the money in the bank and earned interest. The same amount earned today therefore is more valuable than money earned one or more years later. If we apply the standard discounted cash flow method – discount future earnings by a nominal discounting rate of 10% – we find (see table below) that Government’s share would have been 63% of the total profits if the original figures of production and and capital costs retained, while now it is only 48%. Conversely, Reliance’s share goes up from 37% to 52%.

Capital Costs
$ Billion
Production Volume MMSCMD
Total Profits
$ Billion
RIL’s Share %
Gov’s Share
Discounted RIL Share
Discounted Govt’s Share %


  1. Calculations done by the author
  2. Figures based on a 12 year production period and constant gas production.
  3. If a 16 year period is taken and/or production figures increased, the figures would change somewhat, but the broad trends would remain the same.

If we look at the fact that the extra investments have doubled production, how much has each of the parties gained out of this doubling of revenue? Out of the extra revenue (at discounted prices) of about $7.5 billion, Reliance gains about $5.5 billion and the Government only about $ 2 billion.

The increase of four times the capital cost for a mere doubling of production had always seemed highly suspicious. No logic can explain why doubling of capacity to should lead to such an increase – economies of scale normally ensures that a doubling of capacity would increase capital cost by about one and half times. The Draft CAG Report now makes clear that the increase from $2.4 billion to $5.2 billion took place for the first phase, where no augmentation of capacity was involved. This makes nonsense of the bidding procedure for awarding of blocks, as the calculations for award of blocks involves profit shares promised by the various parties. If the capital costs change, all this change, vitiating the award of contract itself.

Not only did the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons accept this increase in capital cost, which under the contract it need not have accepted, it did so in unseemly haste – it took a scant 53 days to go through cost increase of nearly $ 6.3 billion! Some wizardry indeed.

The CAG’s Draft Report brings out the various ways costs could have been doctored – single party bids, making changes to scope, substantial variation on orders, etc. CAG has stated that it is going to examine these issues in greater detail in a subsequent audit.

In November 2009, preliminary investigations by the CBI had found evidence of “gross abuse and misuse of public office” by V K Sibal, the then Director General of DGH. This had been informed to the Petroleum Ministry and to CVC. Numerous links had been found between Sibal and Reliance. The CBI enquiry remains stalled, very much in the telecom 2G mode, showing that Reliance tentacles in the Government go far beyond Sibal.

The Curious Case of $4.2 Gas Price

An Empowered group of Ministers (EGoM), in September 2007, set the price of gas at $4.2 per MBTU for five years with no transparency and without giving any reason for this price. It might be noted that in the same period, (2005-2008), ONGC was being paid only $1.8 per MBTU. The $4,2 price was supposedly done on the basis of RIL’s price “discovery.”

Reliance’s price discovery was to ask a selected set of bidders to quote a gas price according to a formulae which fixed the price within a narrow range of $4.54 to $4.75. With this as the basis, Reliance declared the “discovered” price to be 4.59/MMBtu which was later revised to $4.3/MMBtu. The Government then magnanimously decided that the right price was $4.2 and claimed that it was arrived at through “a discovery” mechanism.

It might be argued that the Government also gained out of the high price of gas. This is indeed true – by our calculations, the Government stood to gain about $4 billion or about Rs. 20,000 crore from the increased price of gas as its share of profits. However, as gas is the major feedstock for fertiliser production and also a fuel for power, this gain has to be balanced against the resulting higher fertiliser and power prices. If the cost of production of fertiliser and power goes up, so does the government subsidy. So while the RIL would pocket the benefit of the higher cost of gas, the Government would have to pay out a much higher subsidy of around Rs. 75,000 crore for a gain of Rs. 20,000 crore and therefore incur a net loss of more than Rs. 55,000 crore.

It is indeed strange that at a time that the government complains about high cost of subsidies, it should itself promote policies that help private parties while pushing up its own subsidy bill.

Not only was the price set at a much higher level than the cost of production, it was also set in foreign exchange and pegged to the price of crude in the international market. Why should the gas price be set in dollars for even the future when the costs have already been incurred and therefore can easily be converted into rupees? Why should the gas price be set at $4.2 when RIL itself admitted in the court proceedings between it and Anil Ambani’s RRNL/NTPC that its cost price of gas was $1.43 and it was willing in 2004 to sell NTPC gas at $ 2.34? What is the justification of pegging the domestic gas price to the price of crude in the international market, to which it has no relation?

Fixing gas prices without examining cost figures and a mechanism of converting the cost figures to a gas price is making gas pricing another way of handing out private largesse. No basis of the gas price rate of $4.2 has been given, so how did the Ministers pull this figure of $4.2 – straight out of their collective hat?

Promoting RIL’s Monopoly in Gas

The last issue is one of monopoly. At the moment, Reliance is major gas producer, Reliance Gas Transportation and Infrastructure Limited (RGTIL) owns the pipeline and again Reliance is getting orders for citywide distribution of gas. Unlike the electricity sector, the Government does not have a problem in gas sector with a vertical monopoly of the type that Reliance is building. Originally, there was a proposal of a national gas grid, which would have GAIL as the nodal agency. This also makes economic sense as whoever owns the gas grid effectively dictates to both the producers as well as the consumers. That is why generally such facilities are independently run, with the state playing a crucial role. Unfortunately, all such policies in the country come a cropper when Reliance is in the picture. So also with the original gas grid. If we have a gas grid now, it will largely be a Reliance grid, with GAIL and others playing second fiddle.

We are already seeing the effect of this monopoly, with Government owned GAIL becoming a junior partner to Reliance and the transportation cost of $1.25 being charged by Reliance( 25% transportation charge?), over and above the $4.2 and again without any regulatory oversight.

CAG has made clear that the form of Production Sharing Contract under the NELP is deeply flawed in favour of the private operators. It provides a perverse incentive to increase capital costs to the detriment of Government’s share of revenue. This is a policy issue that needs to be urgently addressed in view of the large number of blocks that have been handed out under NELP.

What does all this mean for the Indian people? Simply put, we are facing a double loot. On one hand, scarce national resources are being given away at a pittance. Gas and coal resources are being handed over to Amabanis, Tatas and sundry others at throw away prices. However, this is not helping the consumers, who are being asked to pay international oil and gas prices. Private loot of public resources coupled with public loot of the consumers – this is the essence of our petroleum policies.

It is indeed welcome that CAG has drawn attention to the problems in the Production Sharing Contract under the New Exploration Policy of the Government. However, it is important that other issues also be addressed, a key one being the pricing of gas. As for the CBI enquiry against officials who have connived with Reliance, hopefully public pressure will force a reluctant UPA to act. The only question is will Reliance be also put on the dock for having subverted the government machinery and having secured these huge windfalls?

Friday, June 17, 2011

10 classic Indianisms.......

How to fix grammatically insane phrases found in common Indian English                       

We are a unique species, aren’t we? Not humans. Indians, I mean. No other race speaks or spells like we do.
Take greetings for example.
A friendly clerk asking me for my name is apt to start a conversation with, “What is your good name?” As if I hold that sort of information close to my heart and only divulge my evil pseudonym. Bizarre.
I call these Indianisms.
Which got me thinking about a compilation, a greatest hits of the most hilarious Indianisms out there. And here they are. The most common ones, and my favorites among them.

1. 'Passing out'

When you complete your studies at an educational institution, you graduate from that institution.
You do not "pass out" from that institution.
To "pass out" refers to losing consciousness, like after you get too drunk, though I’m not sure how we managed to connect graduating and intoxication.
Oh wait … of course, poor grades throughout the year could lead to a sudden elation on hearing you’ve passed all of your exams, which could lead to you actually "passing out," but this is rare at best.

2. 'Kindly revert'

One common mistake we make is using the word revert to mean reply or respond.
Revert means "to return to a former state."
I can’t help thinking of a sarcastic answer every time this comes up.
“Please revert at the earliest.”
“Sure, I’ll set my biological clock to regress evolutionarily to my original primitive hydrocarbon state at 1 p.m. today."

3. 'Years back'

If it happened in the past, it happened years ago, not "years back."
Given how common this phrase is, I’m guessing the first person who switched "ago" for "back" probably did it years back. See what I mean?
And speaking of "back," asking someone to use the backside entrance sounds so wrong.
“So when did you buy this car?”
“Oh, years back.”
“Cool, can you open the backside? I’d like to get a load in.”

4. 'Doing the needful'

Try to avoid using the phrase "do the needful." It went out of style decades ago, about the time the British left.
Using it today indicates you are a dinosaur, a dinosaur with bad grammar.
You may use the phrase humorously, to poke fun at such archaic speech, or other dinosaurs.
“Will you do the needful?”
“Of course, and I’ll send you a telegram to let you know it's done too.”

5. 'Discuss about'

“What shall we discuss about today?”
“Let’s discuss about politics. We need a fault-ridden topic to mirror our bad grammar.”
You don't "discuss about" something; you just discuss things.
The word "discuss" means to "talk about". There is no reason to insert the word "about" after "discuss."
That would be like saying "talk about about." Which "brings about" me to my next peeve.

6. 'Order for'

"Hey, let’s order for a pizza."
"Sure, and why not raid a library while we’re about it.”
When you order something, you "order" it, you do not "order for" it.
Who knows when or why we began placing random prepositions after verbs?
Perhaps somewhere in our history someone lost a little faith in the "doing" word and added "for" to make sure their order would reach them. They must have been pretty hungry.

7. 'Do one thing'

When someone approaches you with a query, and your reply begins with the phrase "do one thing," you're doing it wrong.
"Do one thing" is a phrase that does not make sense.
It is an Indianism. It is only understood in India. It is not proper English. It is irritating.
There are better ways to begin a reply. And worst of all, any person who starts a sentence with "do one thing" invariably ends up giving you at least five things to do.
“My computer keeps getting hung.”
“Do one thing. Clear your history. Delete your cookies. Defrag your hardrive. Run a virus check. Restart your computer... .”

8. 'Out of station'

“Sorry I can’t talk right now, I’m out of station.”
“What a coincidence, Vijay, I’m in a station right now.”
Another blast from the past, this one, and also, extremely outdated.
What's wrong with "out of town" or "not in Mumbai" or my favorite "I'm not here"?

9. The big sleep

"I’m going to bed now, sleep is coming."
"OK, say hi to it for me."
While a fan of anthropomorphism, I do have my limits. "Sleep is coming" is taking things a bit too far.
Your life isn’t a poem. You don’t have to give body cycles their own personalities.

10. 'Prepone'

“Let’s prepone the meeting from 11 a.m. to 10 a.m.”
Because the opposite of postpone just has to be prepone, right?
"Prepone" is probably the most famous Indianism of all time; one that I’m proud of, and that I actually support as a new entry to all English dictionaries.
Because it makes sense. Because it fills a gap. Because we need it. We’re Indians, damn it. Students of chaos theory.
We don’t have the time to say silly things like "could you please bring the meeting forward."
Prepone it is.
There are many more pure grammatical "gems" in what we call Indian English. Perhaps in time I’ll list some more. And perhaps in the near future, we’ll get better at English.
Till then, kindly adjust.

My Comments:
Yes, it is a fact that we speak wrong pharses or sentences.This I came to know when I came down to USA.
Passing out , in real sense says, to become unconcious.We say, he paased out from 12th grade.That is wrong English.
When someone is Vomitting, people here never says, vomitting, they say...she /he is throwing out.
So, as I read this article, I thougth I should paste it here for readers to understand how bad we speak English.
I donno, but I am an avid reader of Internet and even books which varies to various subjects and maybe that is the reason I am able to write on many things .Offlate I have not been able to read much other then stock market but I still read something that catch my eyes on internet.........
Yes, but I have a liking for watching movies, watching Cricket matches,listening songs but let me write here that IPL that is played in India has never influenced me to watch it even for 5 mins as I feel that is not a standard of internatinal level.I always feel that IPL is fancied only because film star comes there to support their team and peope are able to see their favourite star on the ground.
Though I have not played any Tennis but I was an avid watcher of Tennis games  and in perticular the Wimbledon.I like the pace and the force at which Tennis is played at Wimbledon.
The reason there is pace and force is because it is played on grass court.So if you can't take the serve of the opposite player you lose.Lately I stopped watching Wimbledon because there is no compitition.The players like Bjorn Borg , Boris Becker,Stephen Edberg, Jimmy Connors,Ivan Lendl, Pat Cash,Mats Wilander are missing.The competition at that time was big.
I remember Ivan Lendl never won Wimbledon Championship and he wanted it so badly.
Once he spoke, take my US open championsship and give me Wimbledon.
There was something extraordinary in each players.
Ivan Lendl won US Championship for many times but Wimbledon was eluding him.US open is played on Flusing Meadow, French Open is played on  Ronald Garros and clay court and Mats Winlander was the Champion there.He will not let anyone win there.
In Tennis, the Grand Slam consist of 4 championship.Austrailian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and US Open.
When Wimbledon was played in that time there was always a suspense.Who will win it.
Stephen Edberg from Sweden was an excellent player.Very cool.Never argue for line calls.Well I can't forget to mention John Mcenore from US.Excellent player and always fight with umpire at Wimbledon for line calls.But he was a brilliant player.Lateron he said he use to argue the verdict of umpires for line calls to disturb opposite player......but he was a great player to watch.Then Boris Becker from Germany comes out of blue and wins the Wimbledon at a very tender age of 16 or 17.It was a treat to watch Boris Becker.
First tournament start with Australian Open, then comes French Open, then comes Wimbledon at centre court and then the last at Flushing Meadow as US Open.Means that is how it is played one after another.
I have seen Mats Winlendar playing on and on and winning French Open as many times.Ivan Lendl winnig US open as many times,Bjorn Borg winning wimbledon as many times which was a record in itself but then it was broken by Pat Samprass.But I never was impressed by Pat Samprass.Ofcorse he was an excellent player but to me he was not tested against strong players.
Well, If I do not write on woman player I am sure some woman bloggers will not like
So let me write on them as well.
The best I saw was Billy Gin King , Christ Evert Llyod, Martina Navratilova and that time there was a superb excellent looking player named Gabriela Sabatini from Argentina.
Then came Steffi Graf and she toppled everyone and became top ranked player for many years and then still I use to see the game of Monica Seles who was a beautiful player and won many Grand Slam tournament but was injured when someone stabbed a knife on her back .
Then around same time there came Martina Hingis a very excellent player and played excellently on grass court at Wimbledon as well......
Well friends, I went on and on in Tennis and looks like I will never come out from it.So better I end here.......
I know many readers must be surprised about my interest in various part of games and life and many would feel that how I am able to do that.But that is how I am.I love to enjoy everything which comes in life.
I can talk on and on in any subject for hours togather.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Why certain stocks quotes high?

There are certain stock which are discounted high on the broweses.We keep on thinking why that happens.Some stocks are such that even it is showing loss it is discounted high.
If I give an example , when I gave a call on Lumax Ind it was making loss and still it was quoting at Rs.100...and still I gave the call ..and I am sure many would have not bot it looking at the bottomline.....but Lumax Ind gave excellent return and still way above my recomended price of 95.
One stock which I would mention here is Jyoti Ltd which I recomended here from mid 30's and now it is at Rs 95 after touching to 129.Well, the last year eps , Mar 2011 year ended is 9 and still the stock is quoting at Rs 95?Which is still around 11P/E and other stocks whose eps are high still quotes low......Why?
Why that happens?We as an investor always look at the BS and take decision.We try to see the valuation by looking at the P/E, Mcap/Sales , BV/Price etc etc and most probably we fumble .We make mistake looking at that.
Investors need to understand that when market is giving high discounting it means market knows that the Co product has got great future and it will blast one day showing big bottomline.
Had anyone seen the sales of BF Untility?It is mere 17 cr for whole year and 5 FV stock is quoting at 735 ,means 10 Fv at 1500.....why that is happening?
Because market knows it can deliver the earnings much much bigger in future.
Now that doesn't happens with each and every stocks.Sometimes market do not know what is going on in certain stock and hence it lies low on the broweses and then when market get to know the real worth it starts moving rather say running.
Let us take one more example of Ramco System Ltd which is quoting again at Rs 95 and the bottomline is in RED.Then why the market is giving so high a valuation.Because we are not knowing what market is knowing.
I remember I replied to one of my reader query named Sanjana not sure about the name,She was asking me about what I think about Mahindra Satyam and I told her to look at Ramco System, GSS America , Allied Digital in cloud computing space.I remember I also asked her to write Cloud Computing in Google search and see what is happening there.I have already seen couple of bulk deals in GSS America and has moved up against the market trend.That is the headwind we are getting and if we don't understand that we are at loss....Your ears should be alert to understand the headwind, your nose should be so sensitive that it should be able to smell the oppertunity.....
I haven't mentioned on the front page about cloud computing as I wanted my readers to come out with it but none came out.That is why I always say, read my replies as well to queries asked.I had a bad habit of mentioning stocks or sector in my replies.....
I donno whether she did that or not as I didn't heard  more from her but the key here was I gave a hint to her of an upcoming sector in IT space, Cloud Computing.
This is one sector which is going to blast by next couple of years.I am not going to write anythign about it in detail.Let readers explore it and find it by themself.I will only say that this sector has huge upside.Foreseeing the future of sector  helps us buying stock cheap before others buy.
That is the Key to be successful in stock market.Buy before ayone buys.Buy before anyone take a call, Buy when no one is buying and for that one need conviction and for that one needs to be well read and updated of each and every move that is taking place in the horizen.
Ramco System is in Cloud Computing space and it has given latest annoucement at bse.Go to the bse site and read it.Try to understand what Cloud Computing is and try to match what Ramco is doing in that space.
After all you are putting your hard earn money and you need to take care of it by yourself....

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Does this make sense?

Why "Being Smart" Is Your
Biggest Handicap in Investing
Some people are born smart.
Some people are born lucky.
Some people are smart enough to be born lucky.
-Ed Seykota

Are you smart? Did you do well in school? Well, I have news for you...

By being "smart," you suffer from a huge handicap in becoming a profitable trader...

If intelligence were the key, every finance student who graduated with a PhD from Stanford or MIT who tried his hand at trading would be filthy rich...

And unless they happen to be savvy poker players with a strong dose of practical, hard-earned street smarts, they probably aren't...

Understanding why this is the case can help you make -- or better yet, help you keep -- your hard-earned investment profits in the market...
You've heard this story before...

Picture this...

You are a financial analyst at a top investment bank...

You recently graduated from Harvard Business School and all your friends and family think you're pretty smart.

After all, you always won all of the spelling bees and math contests that you entered since you were a kid -- and you got great grades in college while most of your peers slacked off...

So you research a red-hot Chinese Internet stock IPO. You speak to the management. You run your complex financial models. You value the company at $14 share.

You write a "BUY" recommendation. This is then distributed to your employer's leading institutional clients, who are responsible for investing tens of billions of dollars in the global financial markets.

After the company is listed, the stock shoots up to $24.00. If anything, your valuation makes you look overly conservative...

Then the stock starts dropping. Within five days, the stock is down to $14, and then falls further to $10.

You run your models. You still come up with the $14 target price.

The stock is now at $8... one third of its peak trading price from just a month ago -- and almost half of your current valuation...

But as an analyst, you "know" the stock is worth $14. You'll do anything to avoid admitting that you're "wrong."

This story has been repeated thousands of times on Wall Street. In fact, this anecdote recounts the recent fate of RenRen (RENN) -- The "Facebook of China."

The stock was a hot IPO a month ago, soaring on its first day of trading. Then it promptly fell off the table.
The "Tiny Flaw" in Smart People

Smart people have a tiny little flaw in them that makes them highly unsuitable to be traders and investors...

Consider the results of an experiment conducted by "Trader Vic" Sperandeo... one of the top traders profiled in the original "Market Wizards" book by Jack Schwager."

Having been entrusted with building a trading operation, "Trader Vic" hired and trained 38 traders.

He assembled a diverse group, as he wanted to find out whether there was any correlation between intelligence and trading success...

The results were revealing...

Five of the 38 traders made more money than the others combined...

One of the five who made it was a high school dropout who, according to Sperandeo, "didn't even know the alphabet."

One who made no money in five years had an IQ of 188 and was a champion on Jeopardy.

Why? The "smart" traders could never bring themselves to admit that they were wrong.

Many Smart People = Big Problems

Get enough "smart" people together in a room and you can bring the global financial system to the brink of collapse...

That's precisely what happened with Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) in 1998.

LTCM was founded by a top Salomon Brothers trader and two Nobel Prize winners, Robert Merton of Harvard, and Myron Scholes of Stanford.

LTCM was the most successful hedge fund of its day, generating consistent 40% annual returns over several years... compared with the long-term track records of Warren Buffett and George Soros of around 30% at the time.

The LTCM geniuses were much smarter than Soros or Buffett... at least for a while...

The flaw was that LTCM was leveraged between 200 and 300 times (up to almost $500 billion dollars) on a capital base of about $2 billion...

...and the fund collapsed overnight after the devaluation of the Russian ruble in 1998.

Wall Street knew that these guys were the smartest guys in the room...

What they didn't know was that "being smart" was precisely their problem...

In reality, LTCM knew less about managing risk than a good poker player, who knows not to ever go "all in" on any single hand that could wipe him out...

But back to the flaw in smart people...

Smart people LOVE information!

They think information -- and ever more complex financial models -- are the key to making correct investment decisions.

And the more information you have, the better decisions you make.

But here's the reality:

There's always more to know...

And the more complex the model, the less "robust" or accurate it is...

The real problem, however, is psychology.

Smart people have a bad case of what trading psychologists call "need-to-understand" bias and "need-to-be-right" bias.

That's why, after making an initial recommendation, they spend most of their energy proving that they were right in the first place...

The Lesson You Should Learn...

So, here is the irony: being a "smart" analyst often makes you the worst trader.

And don't be overly impressed with an analyst's employer or academic credentials.

George Soros failed his Charted Financial Analyst (CFA) exams twice... and gave up...

Warren Buffett was rejected by Harvard Business School...

Meanwhile, an analyst at a top investment bank may -- unlike George Soros -- pass her CFA exams on the first try.
But that has nothing to do with her ability to manage money, especially if she spends all her energy trying to prove that her analysis deserves an "A" -- the same grade she got on her thesis at Princeton.

More importantly, don't be too impressed with your own "analysis" either.

Never bet too big on any single idea, no matter how compelling the story.... and always have your exits in place...

That is, unless, you were -- as Ed Seykota says: "smart enough to be born lucky."


Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Bill Gates' mother wrote a poignant letter to Melinda on her wedding day

It said: "From those whom much is given, much is expected."

Wow............. What a quote!

My Interpretation:

"From those whom much is given"............means.....those people whom GOD has given much..

"much is expected"...............means .....they must do more charity for the mankind.....and that is why GOD has given them more putting faith in them....

I maybe wrong and I maybe right as I don't feel I am a good interpreter nor a good analyser in such things.But my simple thinking says so....and interprets this for me ......others may have different view......

Friday, June 10, 2011

Nova Iron &Steel....cmp Rs 12.79...oppertunity coming?


I read this and I thought to paste it here.Have a look ....

Sanjay Singal, who runs his privately held firm Bhushan Power & Steel, has acquired 14.7 per cent stake in small sized loss making sponge iron firm Nova Iron & Steel from its promoters the Gambhir family. Baring Private Equity Asia-backed Bhushan Power & Steel picked the stake through open market transaction for Rs 26 crore (~$ 5.8 million).

Singal was earlier also locked in a three way takeover battle for Orissa Sponge & Iron, that is promoted by the Mohanty family along with minority shareholding of the Orissa government. Besides Sanjay Singal, other suitors of Orissa Sponge included Monnet Group and Bhushan Steel & Power. The three suitors also came out with competing open offers.

Although, the Mohantys have publicly struck an agreement with Jajodias of Monnet Ispat for bringing them as a partner, the takeover drama is apparently not over yet.

So this is not the first time Sanjay Singal is looking to acquire a small size firm to boost its business. The question is will he go all the way this time around? This appears likely, since the promoters themselves sold shares to him and it may not become another basket case with a failed hostile takeover.

Nova that clocked revenue of Rs 144 crore with net loss of Rs 4.23 crore for the year ended March 2010, has seen significant slide in business with revenues of less than Rs 3 crore in three straight quarters ending with the three months ended December 2010. It is yet to disclose numbers for the quarter ended March 2011 or for the full financial year. This makes it a ripe acquisition target.

Gambhir family held 58.2 per cent stake (a quarter of this was pledged) in Nova as of March 31, 2011. With the stake sale their holding comes down to 43.5 per cent.

Singal in a television interview has indicated that the bigger plan is to have management control of Nova. This would mean buying more shares possibly through a mix of fresh issue and secondary market purchase from Gambhir family to revive the business and also get a majority control over the listed firm.

Bhushan Power & Steel had revenues of Rs 4,008 crore (~$890 million) with earnings of Rs 255 crore for the year ended March 2010. It had cash and bank balances of around $100 million for FY10.

Nova Iron scrip rose 4.9 per cent to hit the upper price circuit for the day at Rs 12.79, valuing the firm at Rs 119 crore. Investors already smell an impending open offer!


Take your own call.....

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Why we miss Multibaggers...............

I have been trying to find this answer since long.
Why small investor miss finding multibagger?What are the reason why it doesn't come to us?What wrong we do?
I feel that as a small investor or as being a smart investor we miss it.We ask too much questions.Questions are neccessary but should not be a hinderence  of picking a multibagger.
Why we do not have stocks like Infosys Techno?Why we don't have stock like Wipro?Why we don't have stock like Delta Corp?Why we don't have stock like Keleidoscope?Why we don't have stock like Kwality Dairy?Why we don't have stock like Symphony Comfort?
This type of stock is not with Institution nor with HNI's or DII's.Why that happens?
The reasons are many like:

We ask too many questions.We try to go in looking BV, RONW,Earnings, Debt,Inventories , Management etc etc.....and I feel that one of the most valid and concrete reason is looking at the management.
Score of multibagger smart investors missed ( mostly who are MBA's, CA's,degree in Finance) has lost that opppertunity.
Why we lost the oppertunity?becuase we went on looking at the management.Smart investor didn't buy Infosys because the management was unknown.Smart investor didn't buy Kaleidoscope because  there was nothing in the Balance sheet.Smart investor didn't buy Kwality Dairy or Sumphony Comfort because they were not able to forsee the growth of the branded product.
Question asking is good but should not become a benchmark to choose a stock.Investing is just not Books.It is common sense as well .
I have seen reports from brokerage houses.They keeps on writing all statistic.Long long report full of figures.The discription part is very less.That makes no sense to me.Even if there is discription , then that can be found from the website.
I have seen no report barring some exception which gave multibagger return.The reason that happens is the report comes way after the stock is up by 5- 10 times and then the return is limited too.A normal return of 30-40% in a year or two.
The key is to pick a stock on a very nascent stage.The acumen is in identifying stock which can give 10-20 times return but majority of us fail to identify it.
But no one ask this question to themselve that why that is not happening to us.What wrong procedure we are following that we miss those stock.One need to do self introspection.
But the human ego is such that it never let you think the correct way.
We never confess our mistakes . One need to be good at heart for that.That should be first criteria for coming to self introspection.But we never confess out mistakes.We cheat our selves saying, oh, that was not a big deal and I haven't done anything wrong.We defend ourselve by blaming others. That is the worst way of thinking.And then the time comes we never feel guilty of wrong doing or hurting someone.Then it becomes our way of life.We becomes so self centered that we don't see whether we are hurting someone.....We start finding reasons why we did that and justifies our wrong doing....

We need to think on that. I even go and say to that extend to even those financial Wizard( MBA's, CA;s, etc) that find why you are not able to pick such stocks? Find out the reason.What is wrong in coming to pick up stocks that the multibaggers stocks are eluding them.
But who cares ?All wants to have their own way of pie of commission or pay or salary.They invest peoples money.They get salary for that.Now what return investor will get from their fund who cares.
I liked the way Vikram Pandit did it.He said he will take just $1 as salary untill Citi gr do not come in black for 3-4 qrs   and he did exactly what he said.Took salary of $1 for 2 yrs.How many fund managers do this.Ofcourse what he did was a routine things to bring back the Citi gr in black like trimming down the expenses by laying off employees, selling assets etc....
Well, coming back to, why we are not able to hold multibaggers, the other reason I am seeing is we sell them feeling them as fully priced.I am sure there can't be a single person who must be not repenting why he sold that stock which gave multibagger return after selling.Why we sell a multibagger?We become expert.We start thinking about the valuation.We feel that it has runup fast and so we need to sell and we can always buy later.But that never happens as when we sell we buy something else.
As I have written  in my post of " How to pick a Multibagger" the eq is very important.Small eq has always advantage.BV is another point to look at.Promoters stake over 70% is a huge huge positive......visit my post of "How to Pick Multibaggers" again....
If we take a recent call of Digjam Ltd which I gave, it is a loss making Co but it is a branded product and coming from non other then Birla.Digjam Ltd can become a future multibagger.But the thing is when a stock is in 10's range no one believe it and then after 3-4 -5 yrs when it becomes multibagger , we repent.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

‘China slowdown may lead to 75% dip in commodities’...

BLOOMBERG London, 4 June

A SUDDEN slowdown in China may lead commodity prices to fall as much as 75 per cent from current levels, Standard & Poors said.
Unexpected shifts in government policies or problems in the banking sector may trigger such a slowdown, S&P said in a report e-mailed today. The floor for aluminum is 65 cents to 70 cents a pound ($1,433 to $1,543 a metric ton), compared with about $1.20 a pound now and coppers floor is $1.50 to $1.75 a pound, compared with $4.10 a pound currently, S&P said.

Given the extent to which China has bolstered commodity prices, thats something that we have to be concerned about, S&P analyst Scott Sprinzen said by telephone from New York. The efforts by the government in China to slow growth are having an effect on commodity prices. Its been a pretty modest correction so far. The Standard & Poors GSCI index of 24 commodities dropped 6.8 per cent last month, the first decline since August, as accelerating inflation in China fanned speculation growth will slow. Chinas central bank has raised benchmark interest rates four times and boosted lenders reserverequirement ratios by three percentage points since September.

The central bank may raise rates ahead of a public holiday on June 6 because consumer prices are expected to rise to a new high in May, the Shanghai Daily said May 31, citing UBS AG. Inflation rose 5.3 per cent last month, exceeding the governments full-year target of 4 per cent.


Chinas gross domestic product may grow 9.5 per cent this year, down from 10.3 per cent in 2010, according to a median of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Under S&Ps base- case scenario, Chinas economic growth will moderate, while private consumption will remain strong, according to the report.
The current situation isnt abubble and its not going to burst, but there is a risk, Sprinzen said.

In case of a sudden slowdown in the worlds biggest consumer of commodities, iron ores floor is $85 to $95 a metric ton compared with about $170 now, seaborne coking coal at the mine has a floor of $100 to $120 a ton, compared with about $180 now, and hot rolled coil steels floor is $475 to $525 aton compared with about $750 now, according to the report.

In considering the downside for metals, we generally assume that the global industry production cost curve would set a pricing floor, Sprinzen wrote. Specifically, we assume that prices are unlikely to fall for an extended period below the level at which 10-20 per cent of world capacity cannot generate positive operating cash flow before investment. Commodities may easily drop 25 to 40 per cent in the next 12 months, presenting an enormous opportunity for investors, David Stroud, chief executive officer of TS Capital, a hedge fund manager in New York, said in an e-mail.

My Comments:
As per the report by S&P the commodities will go down as much as 75%.China is trying to put brakes on their overheating economy and thus the demand for the commodities will go down and if even 30-40% prices can go down that will do load of good for the user Ind.
Actually the commodities prices goes up much early then the actual demand comes out.It is the speculators who forecast the demand and takes a postion on commodities and hence the prices goes up.That is an unfortunate part of F&O .Players speculate on coming demand and buy futures of the perticular commodities.So actually the price get rised before even the demand rises.
But if China is putting brakes on economy by rasing the Int rate and lendersreserve requirement ratio  by 3% then that will be good for many Indian Cos who are taking a beating due to commodities prices going up.

Friday, June 3, 2011

Some Insight.......

I will write something today on how stocks moves.How small investors get baffaled by the movement of the stocks.I already gave the example of Kaleidoscope how it was just 40 paisa and how it went on to touch 40 rupees.
Well, this is just not one example .There are scores of eaxmples where small investor will sell it and then stock gives huge return.
We already saw what happened in Sujana Towers.
Let me recall a stock called Ashahi Safety Glass Ltd.I am talking of this stock between 1996-1998 something.Not exactly I can remember the years but it was round about those years.It was then 10 paid up and with a very tiny eq of just 1.50 cr or 3 cr.
It was a MNC and giving excellent return with earnings matching up.I remember it was quoting around 300 at that time and market was in bearish mode after the Harshad Mehta Scam.
Then it started moving up and up and it touched something around 800-900 and then the Bonus was declared. It was a liberal Bonus of 1:1.It went on to touch 1200 even when market was down.
It got XB and become 600.Well, as it was bearish period, it even went more down and down ,to again Rs 300, as those who had 100 shares get 100 free and become 200 and as the bonus was declared and become XB , investor thought that it is time to sell and book profit.
So small investors sold it and after seeing going down and down they sold the whole holding and took out all money as it was a bearish phase and it was already XB and that was a natural thinking and decision.But here the decision went wrong.
The very next year again Ashahi Safety  again declared another Bonus 1:1.Wow! and again the stock went to 1200.So now those who held up those 200 shares became the original 100 shares became 400.
Another case is of Motherson Sumi.After it was splitted with 1 paidup it was around 120 and suddenly the stock went to as low as 30 something.I think that was around in 2004-2005.There was no reason to go down for the stock but it went down and then again it started its upward movement in 6-8 months and crossed 100 again.
Well, even now Motherson Sumi after making a low of 40 is making new highs in this bear market.It is 230 and 1 paidup.Means  Rs 2300 on 10 paidup giving an P/E of 25.
Let me mention Rico Auto here when I write on Motherson Sumi.I gave the call on Rico Auto with detail analysis and Rico Auto which was making loss has turnaround and also delcared Dividend.
Rico Auto can become another Motherson Sumi.It can and it may not.
Now let me talk about how stock moves and how to understand it.
We have heard from many analyst that distribution is taking place.What is that?
When a stock goes down or say when stock is down on a perticular day the Vol is up then the average Vol daily and that remains for few days or weeks.That is distrubution.It simply says that HNI's or DII's or FII's are selling stocks and is going down.
If a stock goes down on thin Vol then we can say that it is going down just to panic the small investor to sell their holding and get out of it so that those (Operator)who wants to buy can buy it cheap.
Take the case of Sabero Organics.
On 26 th Mar 2011 it made a low of 36 and now in 2 months it is Rs 124......what is was delibaretly bitten down to buy it low and when the news of takeover came at Rs 160, it is already above 100.
These are all gimmicks played by players and as I have written in past, no stock can move without the Vol gets dried up.
So, if one is holding a stock and it is going down and down and still the Vol is small one can still hold it instead of selling it and getting out from it as with low Vol it is not distribution taking place but actually panicking the investors.Ofcousre what the fundamental is looking is important.If the Co is still doing good and stock is going down on low Vol then no need to panic.
Same happens when a stock goes up.If the stock goes up with Vol then buying is coming for the stock.Like say, average Vol for a perticular stock is 1000 shares and it went up by 10-15% on a Vol of 10,000 or 15,000 shares then it means someone is buying and if that happens 2 -3 times in a week or fortnight then it means that some one is buying it.
There are innumerable examples where small investors have been fooled.They sold it in panic or getting frustarated and then the stock moved.