Thursday, July 31, 2008

For Nifty bears, the signs are ominous

JUST one word defines the sentiment amongst Nifty traders going into the settlement of the July series of derivative contracts — confusion. For, a series in which the Nifty initially fell over 12% only to follow it up with a 20% rise, it’s natural for a large number of players to be caught on the wrong foot, reports Shakti Shankar Patra from ET Intelligence Group. And this is clearly reflected in rollover figures, which at 53.75% is much lower than the past six month’s average of 61.72% on the S-1 day. But fortunately for Nifty bulls, the rollover is happening with a positive bias, as bulls seem to be more confident than bears going into August. The fact that July and August futures are trading in contango (August futures trading higher than July futures), only further validates this. This confusion, which leads to more volatility, is reflected in the options segment as the India VIX is trading at extremely high levels — it had closed at an all-time high on Tuesday and even after cooling off substantially on Wednesday, is quoting above 50.

However, such high VIX levels — which are higher than even that during the madness of January —clearly suggests the panic is overdone and justifies the long rollover seen in the Nifty. As for settlement day, Wednesday saw massive buying in the 4300 call and selling of the 4400 put, many of them even below its intrinsic value.

Generally, a put quoting below its intrinsic value is seen as a bullish sign as it suggests that stronger hands are writing these puts, knowing very well that their cash buying would push the underlying above the strike price, rendering them worthless. So, the signs are ominous if you are a Nifty bear.

My Commnets:
This above post is a ditto copy of what I read today in ET.......Read the last para that I have highlighted in bold blue words.....
I would like to have expert opinion of Mr Azad who seems to able to read the technicals of market very well as he was able to judge the upmove from 12500 and started buying from thereon....
I am keeping my fingure crossed whether the market breaks the resistance of 15300 or not as written by Mr Azad and then slowly drift towards below 10,000 and then to 2000 level or period.......
I also suggest readers to read the whole post nicely and try to understand what Mr.Shakti Shankar Patra wants to say.....
I would only write here that ,though the CRR rate was hiked and not so good nos of Inflations market went up......ignoring the bad factors.......I repeat , ignoring the bad factors.......
it means , market do not wants to go down more now on bad news and is ready to go up on any good sign.....

Monday, July 28, 2008

Shriram EPC from 128 to 200 in a week!

I gave a call last Sunday on Shriram EPC at Rs 128 and now it is Rs 200.
I wrote very clearly that stock has moved from 99 , 52 week low to , 128 and hence value buying has started.
If one would have gone through the site , which I wrote in that post and read the whole post, there was no reason for anyone not to buy Shriram EPC .
It was the most reliable gr and the business model was excellent.
Well,I just wanted to point out that those who were writing about my fail calls , though they are not,until they do not mature means 2 yrs holding period
, one can’t writeoff those call as well.
Well, Shriram EPC has given over 50% return in a week.Well,friends I recommends stocks purely on valuations and my own reading and analysis.I have no operator connection nor any inside info.Anyone who is reading me since the inception of this blog or even at MMB, then he must be knowing that my calls are never based on any insider news.
I know none must have bought Shriram EPC as everyone must be thinking that he will buy after Shriram EPC again comes down at 110 level or even below 99 levels.This is going to happen time and again and people will keep on loosing the opportunity like this.Because they still feels that market can go below 12k to 10k or 9k or even 8k……those who are on sidelines will always be on sidelines.They will never be able to garner the courage to buy at even the levels which are 70% down from the high.
Those who will look at charts and technicals analysis will face the same fate as they always feels that market has enough room to go down.I firmly believe that one can never buy at extreme bottom nor can sell at extreme top.
That is why I have always written that sell 50% as soon as stocks doubles and keep the rest for maximum gains.
Just go through all my post and try to find which stocks I have talked recently.New calls and old calls.Buy them.Have conviction……it is not sold in market….u have to develop it and that is only possible if one do things himself.
How many of my readers went through my whole post of Shriram EPC I posted on 20th July?and that includes visiting the site…as well.Can anyone come out and tell me?
If there are only few means 2-3 readers then I think my writing here is useless.When a stock goes down after my call people comes out and writes I wants to dump the stock.But when they goes up , these Ahmedsir, Anonymous etc
Never comes out to say that it was a great call.I have written here it is very easy to critisize from the otherside of table……
I am again giving a buy call on Navin Flourine for 2 yrs hold atleast.This is a new call here but I have recommended it at ISG and at MMB way back……
Buy India Glycols, Jyoti Ltd, Navabharat Ferro,Indsil Elec etc
Market is stabilsing.Even government will like to have robust stock market untill election and hence don't wait for more down side....
Best of luck to every one.I hope readers will look at my past post to read my past calls as well……

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Can anyone make out what it means?........

I have been through to this mail....who is a Analyst in a firm.
If someone tries to read the mail , it is absoluetly bad English.It seems that the Analyst has no writing skill as he is all at sea in English......
Don't understand how these people get a job as Stock Analyst ......when they can't write properly....what they mean to say....I mean this guys writing can twist the whole meaning of sentence....and some other meaning can come out.....
I admire that firm who gave employement to such person.....who have no writing skill.......


dear friend
i watch your stock if u r hodl 12 to 24 month i sour u r retrun 30% this sotck
(name of the person)....... ( name of the firm)servives ltd i am working & stock anlisesy within 10 year i am sure u r hold this stock

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

What a day it was!
Friends, 800 points jump in sensex and that too after 4 days back to back rally ....was very nice to see....
Almost all the cash stocks I discussed were in green.....
Suddenly things is looking better with UPA's confidence vote.Fin Min already reiterated that this year the growth wil be again 9% and he is looking confident as well which we were not able to see past 6 months......he is now talking of more reforms and he actually taken Left to task for meeting BJP , whom in no circumstances would they have taken support.
The equation is just like India 275 and China
I think if the N-deal would have been with China then it would have passed without any confidence vote......
Sensex came up right from 12500 to 14900 and if some one can see the graph of the sensex then it was constantly up.A rally of 2400 in about 5 days is no less a good strength shown by bulls.Still Oil tanking below 100 is to take place.This whole lots of FII's will come back to buy all these stocks they sold at lower levels .It were Citi, Lehman, UBS , Bear Stern who made huge losses , in billions of dollars in subprime mortagage has to sell on compulsion to be cash liquid in US market.My previous post shows that FII's had tried to make both of the world.Selling when the
chips were down and thereby taking advantage of arbitration.But as soon as the stocks goes in premium the game will change as the they will have to cut the position and that will happen when stock will move up.Bears have sold around $7 bn which I wrote here sometimes back which I got to read from Prime Sec's N Jaykumar's interview at Money control.
These stocks are yet to be bought and given back to the lenders and this will fuel the market further.$7 bn borrowed stock is a big big selling, which is bigger then entire selling of FII's since Jan as the stocks prices will move up lenders will also ask for the shares they lend and we have to see how bears do that......!
I have written many times here that there is only 2 countries where FII's can make good return and that is India and China.I am already seeing Citi gr back in action ,hich was a big seller in our market.Citi bought Prajay Eng in bulk deal of around 2 lacs shares.The stock was beateb down to just some redicule value.It is time for bargain hunting Realty stocks as I read that Goldman Scahs and Citi has already strated buying stake in Unitech and in some private Realty stocks which are not means that Realty story is not over.
Fin Min PC is full of confidence and is speaking about taking the reforms in more vibrant way and that too fast before the next general election takes place next year.The assurance of Fin Min about the growth remaining in tact is another trigger for FII's becoming buyers in our market.
I am seeing now that everyone is giving a higher targets for sensex and nifty.I have written here things can change so suddenly.
To my personal view, we should see a good market for 2-3 months with profit booking taking place on rallies.But those who will sell in rallies may not be able to get stocks back.Ths can happen.
I think none of the chart was reading that market will move by 2400 points in 5 days....If anyone can claim that please do write would like to know what charts were exhibiting since last Wednesday.
It was all doom doom and doom.I am in USA since Feb and I am seeing no panic here.Dow goes up with good news and goes down with bad news.But in our market it was only one way and that is down down and down.
With the doors getting open for N Deal I feel that India will come in a elite gr of Nuclear Power generation gr and it is going to help it in big way.
In pessimism comes the optimism.There is always light at the end of the tunnel.
Let us see how Bears take this movement.Whether they can again put a beark on bulls and get what they predicted....i.e. nifty 2500!
From here onwards there will be lots of selling on everyrise as analyst and perticularly the chartist will not let investors to hold on the stocks as they are saying this is a bear market rally but as happened in past,in May 2004/May 2006 and that all bear market rally has converted in a Bull Market rally......or say opening up of a new Bull run...................
Keeping the fingures crossed till then............


Tuesday, July 22, 2008

FIIs try out reverse swing to beat the Street:
Santosh Nair MUMBAI

WITH futures of many key index stocks quoting at a significant discount to spot prices, some aggressive foreign fund houses are learnt to have been borrowing shares heavily in a bid to cash in on the situation. These overseas players borrow the shares for an interest charge, sell them in the market, and simultaneously buy an equivalent quantity of the futures of that stock, which are available at a discount. This entire transaction is known as ‘reverse arbitrage’ in market parlance. The difference between the sale price of the shares and the purchase price of the futures is the profit for the foreign fund house. This difference, also called spread, has to be wide enough to lock in a neat profit, after paying the interest charge on the borrowed shares. For the moment, reverse arbitrage is turning out to be a very profitable activity for investors who are able to borrow shares. During the current derivatives settlement cycle, stock futures have been quoting at discounts as high as Rs 20-30 to the spot on many days. Dealers say Wipro, Tata Steel, DLF and ICICI Bank are among the actively borrowed stocks for reverse arbitrage.

Reverse swing points to further slide .

How does it work?

FOR instance, on July 4, the ONGC scrip was quoting at Rs 876.50, while the July futures were quoting at Rs 844. If an investor owns ONGC shares, he can sell his holdings, and buy an equivalent amount of futures, thereby locking in a profit of Rs 28-30 (after adjusting for brokerage charges). Then depending on the spread, he can either carry forward those positions to the next derivative settlement cycle, or reverse them at expiry of the current cycle. Even if the investor were to borrow the ONGC shares, he would still make a profit of Rs 20-25 after adjusting for borrowing costs. Interestingly, none of the borrowing is happening through the securities lending borrowing scheme (SLBS) started by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in April this year. In fact, there has not been a single transaction through SLBS for more than two months. Dealers at foreign broking houses said the borrowings are taking place among foreign institutional investors. The lender is usually an FII who is authorised to issue participatory notes (PNs). Overseas investors not registered with Sebi — either out of choice or regulatory reasons — invest in Indian shares through the PN route. The FII authorised by Sebi to issue PNs has a separate account, in which it buys and sells shares for clients who wish to invest through the PN route. This FII has an assortment of stocks in its inventory and with — or sometimes even without — the permission of his PN clients, he lends the shares to investors willing to pay a charge for it. Since the lender and the borrower are global players, such agreements are entered into outside India. In the disclosures to the stock exchanges, it will appear as if the PN client is selling those shares. But as per the agreement signed in some other jurisdiction, the shares are being sold on behalf of the foreign fund, which has borrowed them for a fee.

Why not SLBS?

“The SLBS is too transparent,” said a dealer at a foreign broking house, on why foreign funds were avoiding this route to borrow shares. “If (market) operators get to know that institutions are heavily short on a certain stock, they will try to move the price in the opposite direction and force the institutions to cover up their positions,”( Is this planned hammering or WHAT?) he added. The other reasons are the high upfront margins in this segment and the rigidity in the contract tenure. In the PN route, margins are much lower and the terms far more flexible, since it is an over-the-counter (OTC) market.

Money for jam

As the name suggests, reverse arbitrage is the opposite of what most foreign funds were practising in a rising market till December last year. Then, futures were quoting at a premium to the spot price. So these foreign funds would sell the stock futures, and simultaneously buy an equivalent amount of the stock, the difference being their profit. Then depending on the spread, they would either carry forward those positions to the next settlement cycle, or reverse them at expiry of the prevailing cycle. ‘Money for jam’ is how one dealer at a foreign broking house had described the trade. There was no risk, since each leg of the trade was protected by the other, and the spread mostly remained constant.

Why reverse arbitrage?

Sources in foreign broking houses said even without reverse arbitrage, many foreign investors have been borrowing shares and selling them in the market in the past couple of months. When prices fall, these investors buy back the shares and return them to the lender. But should the stock price rise instead of falling, the borrower would face a loss, and he will have to buy the shares at a higher price to return them. In this form of borrowed transactions, gains as well as losses can be huge. In reverse arbitrage, the profits may be lower, but they are there for the taking. Profits are locked in the moment the trade is initiated. And if the spread starts narrowing, the position can be closed out with some sacrifice to the initial profit.

Bear hammering?

Market watchers are baffled by the steep discount which many stock futures are currently quoting at. Usually, the premium or discount between the futures and spot is not more than a rupee or two. One reason for such wide disparities in prices could be the reduced number of players in the derivatives segment. A good number of high net worth individuals and retail investors have permanently moved out, after suffering massive losses during the market meltdown in January. Lesser participants mean that arbitrage opportunities are available for longer. But there are conspiracy theories too. Some brokers allege that the steep fall in stock futures is being precipitated by basket selling of stock futures by some FIIs in a bid to pull down the index. “It can’t be a coincidence that the discounts are wider in stocks which are illiquid, but at the same time have a significant weightage in the index,” says a day trader, referring to stock futures of Wipro and ONGC. The disparity is much lower in the case of liquid index stocks like Reliance Industries. Reverse arbitrage, though perfectly legitimate, also tends to drag down prices in a scenario where there is not enough buying support. Stock futures quoting at a discount means investors are bearish in their outlook. So when shares are sold to capture the arbitrage opportunity, the prophecy becomes self-fulfilling. Incidentally, the same mechanism was in force, but in the opposite direction, when the market was rising. When investors were selling futures and buying shares, indices would rise as a result of the cash market purchases.

Payback time?

In the last couple of sessions, the price differential between the futures and cash market has narrowed down considerably. Dealers said the steep decline in crude prices has caught many of the arbitrage players on the wrong foot. With sentiment improving, the funds which had sold borrowed shares are frantically covering up their positions by buying back the shares(That is the catch). This was also reflected in the positive FII inflows on Thursday and Friday, even as the overall mood remains cautious ahead of the trust vote in Parliament on Tuesday. Should the differential reduce further, there could be further covering up of positions. The trade is profitable only as long as the difference between the futures and spot price can more than cover the borrowing costs.

My comments:
Seems Bears(I have not named) has found out newer ways to break the market.I have been writing at my blog since long that the hammering in our market seen is unwarrented.Even if econmy is slowing a bit by couple of percentage ,market can't go on breaking the way it was/is breaking....
Hammering is overdone in our market.....and as it is a planned attack by through the Master Mind conspiracy of Indian Biggest Bear, Bears are going to caught on wrong foot like they did in last couple of days....

Freinds,All have been explained in a detailed manner in this post which I have copied and pasted from ET of Monday....(Yesterday)front page.....
The bear conspiracy is going on and it should get exposed in a state of a break Nifty and thereby the market.....I am writing this since long about systamatic bear hammering but people were greedy not to believe that and thought Chart is working.........Lol.......


Sunday, July 20, 2008

Shriram EPC.......a good buy cmp....Rs.128.45

Shriram EPC is looking good to me.

Name :Shriram EPC
FV :10
Eq : 42.86 cr
CMP : 128.45

The name Shriram EPC gives you what it does.It is in Eng, Procurement and Const biz.....
It comes from a very wellknown Shriram gr .This gr has proved that they mean business.
Well,Shriram EPC has many diversified business.

The order book stood at Rs 2279.2 crore as of December 31, 2007. The new order traction is robust and demonstrates the strength of the technological collaborations and the operating excellence in the chosen areas of operations. They have been winning highly competitive business contracts on a sustained basis which gives them the confidence to maintain an optimistic view going forward. The operating environment also remains conducive which combined with growth-drive points towards a strong outlook for the future .
A co which is having an orderbook of Rs 2300 cr is going abegging at just Rs 128 .
Shriram EPC made a 52 week high of Rs 324 and made a low of Rs 99.
Seems value buying has started as it is up from Rs 99.

Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, Wednesday, June 25, 2008 -- (Business Wire India) -- --
Newly launched India Industrial Growth Fund�s first investment in the SME space--
Company will make next-generation GRP pipes to replace steel/concrete pipes--
GRP pipes are used in water and sewage, and on-ground oil and gas pipelines--
JV to combine Shriram EPC's client network and project management skills with SEPL's technology--
Shriram SEPL starting order book over INR 1.0 billion

Mauritius-based Frontline Strategy Ltd, a Fabiani Family Office-anchored asset management company with prime focus on private equity investments, today announced the first investment of its recently launched, second SME-specific, India Industrial Growth Fund, with a 26% equity stake in Shriram SEPL Composites Private Limited, a joint venture of Shriram EPC and Strategic Engineering Private Ltd.

Shriram SEPL will manufacture next generation glass fiber reinforced plastic (GRP) pipes, the internationally preferred alternative to steel and concrete pipes for water and sewage, and on-ground oil and gas pipelines.

Leveraging Shriram EPC's rich project experience and outstanding client network, Shriram SEPL starts with an order book of over INR 1.0 billion, which has been procured with the help of Shriram EPC.

Shriram SEPL will draw down on the technical expertise of Dr M Ramakrishnan, who was in charge of design, development, and production at SEPL, and brings several years of expertise in composite materials including pipes and high pressure vessels. Dr Ramakrishnan is an expert member of the Indian Standards (IS) Committee for evolving standards for high pressure composite cylinders and on plastic and composite pipes. The new company will also be able to leverage the over 30 years of domestic and international marketing and general management expertise of Mr T N Prasad, who is the Managing Director of SEPL. Between them, Dr Ramakrishnan and Mr Prasad have over 50 years of industrial and marketing experience.


The investment in Shriram SEPL Composites is a continuation of Frontline Strategy's focus on investing in companies with global scope and capability, said Atim Kabra, Managing Partner, Frontline Strategy. �Shriram SEPL combines Shriram EPC's proven capability in industrial projects with SEPL's technology expertise to serve India's fast-growing infrastructure development sector, with its large demand for pipes for sewage and water lines.�


Given Shriram EPC's significant presence in the municipal services sector, the addition of the GRP pipe manufacturing capacity will significantly strengthen Shriram EPC's product offering, said T Shivaraman, Shriram EPC's Managing Director and CEO. "We are happy to have Frontline as a long term investor in this company. This is in line with our philosophy of working with partners in our businesses. Such partnerships bring in people who can bring a different perspective to the business and act as a catalyst and sounding board for the operating team. We are very happy with our relationship with Frontline and look forward to building a significant player in this specialized field," Mr Shivaraman said.


The new company Shriram SEPL will leverage the technology expertise and client references built up by SEPL over the last few years and Shriram EPC�s proven strengths in the areas of project sourcing and management, especially in municipal services, said SEPL Managing Director TN Prasad. "The long term partnership with Shriram EPC and Frontline Strategy will allow Shriram SEPL to also expand into newer segments, such as oil and gas, which have huge potential latent demand. We are confident that Shriram SEPL is well set to become the leading player in this fast-growing industry," Mr Prasad said.


Founded in 2000, the Fabiani Family Office-anchored Frontline Strategy Limited ( is an asset management company with primary focus on private equity investments. The investment management team includes Atim Kabra, Supratim Basu, Sanjay Bhattacharya, and J Venkatadas, with a collective experience of over 100 years in public and private equity, banking, and company operations.Prominent investments of Frontline Strategy's first fund vehicle, Strategic Venture Fund (Mauritius) Ltd, include: CBay Systems & Services, Inc, an early-stage Frontline Strategy investment, and the largest provider of outsourced knowledge processing services for the global healthcare industry, after the acquisition of MedQuist, Inc; Astra Microwave Products Ltd, a manufacturer of high-end microwave and RF-based components for defense, space and civil telecom applications; Titagarh Wagons Ltd, India's leading private manufacturer of railway wagons; Alfa Transformers Ltd, a manufacturer of power, distribution and furnace (specialty) transformers; Shilpa Medicare Ltd, among India's leading specialty pharmaceutical manufacturers, primarily focusing on custom synthesis and oncology APIs.


Shriram EPC Limited (NSE code: SHRIRAMEPC, BSE code: 532945) is among India's leading providers of integrated design, engineering, procurement, construction and project management services for renewable energy projects, process and metallurgical plants, and municipal projects. The company also manufactures of 250 kW wind turbine generators (WTG). Shriram EPC is headquartered in Chennai with offices in Mumbai, New Delhi, Kolkata and Beijing, and WTG and cooling tower factories in Puducherry, Chennai and Umbergaon.


Using in-house development and R&D, Strategic Engineering Private Limited (SEPL) manufactures composite glass fibre reinforced plastic (GRP) pipes and pressure vessels targeting India's fast-growing infrastructure development sector that has opened up a huge market for pipes, especially for sewage and water lines.

My comments:
I hope that all readers will take his own call and then buy so lateron they do not feel that I wanted to offload and hence I recomended it.......

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Early bird numbers signal buoyant demand, thin profits ...i like this NEWS very very much...


The below news says that demand has not decreased as sales has gone up..means remained bouyant....but the cost has gone up and that will come down as Commodities and crude and thereby inflation will come down.
I liked the news very very much.......because this shows that growth has not taken a back sit.......and that is where the India Growth Story lies......I liked it........
Demand remaining robust is a very good sign for economy and thereby for Stock Market.......


Below is the todays front page news in ET's........

Early bird numbers signal buoyant demand, thin profits

Operating Profit Growth Shows Signs Of Weakness As Raw Material, Staff Costs Soar

THE early birds of India Inc who have come out with results for the quarter ending June 2008 appear to debunk the economic slowdown theory. An ETIG analysis of the first 120 firms whose results are available reveal that net sales of these companies have grown 26%, the highest in the last four sequential quarters. However, the bad news is that profit growth continues to be in low-single digit. Revenue as captured by net sales is directly linked to demand for products and services. So, a higher growth rate in sales indicates that demand is still buoyant. Companies are not feeling the pinch of shrinking demand just as yet. However, profits — a key parameter for investors to track earnings generated by a firm — are cutting a sorry figure. An analysis of the results of 120 companies shows that aggregate sales have grown 26%, significantly higher than the 18% clocked in Q408 and marginally higher than 25% in Q308. While operating profit growth at 16% is lower than that for Q408, it goes up to 20%, if we exclude other and extraordinary income. The growth in net profit is disappointing at 3.5%, though it was marginally higher than the 3.4% growth clocked by these firms during Q408. While the sample represents a small set of Indian companies, the initial trend does have a degree of reliability. If we compare the results of these companies with the aggregate results of India Inc for the last few quarters, we see that it matches with the overall sales performance with a small variance. But the deviation in profit growth is larger. As a result, it is reasonable to expect that the overall financials of companies, a majority of whom are yet to announce their quarter results, may show buoyant topline performance even though the verdict in case of profits is still wide open. Raw material costs hit manufacturing NON-FINANCIAL sector companies, which form the bulk of the set, have got support from reasonable growth in sales. The revenue growth has helped them partly neutralise the impact of lower other income and higher costs. Sales have grown 25%, significantly higher than 18% clocked in the previous two quarters. For the manufacturing sector, raw material cost has risen 43%, much higher than the 13% growth in the previous two quarters. Employee cost, another important item, rose 19% (10%). The impact of rising interest rates is also visible with interest cost going up by sharp 45%. Besides the rising input cost, companies have been hit by lower other income and extraordinary income, which declined almost 30% against a 40% growth in the previous two quarters.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Another day for Crude going down......

Crude again went down by 4-5 as low as $129....and again Dow went up by over 200 ponits.....
Again Financial stocks are up in Dow and in our market Banks and Financial stocks are still taking the beating.....
Merill lynch showed a loss of billions of dollars.....Indymac is takenover by Fed itself but still there is no panic in US market.
I saw an Interviw of Mr.Donald Trump at cnbc today.He is a realty player and in entertainment biz as well.
He sold his property at $100 mn which he bought in 2004 at $40mn….
He says that there is lots of crude supply coming and hence Crude has to fall and it will fall.
Let us see what happens now at Indian brouses.
Well, I remember I gave a call on Foods and Inns couple of years back at MMB at just Rs 60-62 and it made a high of Rs 499 and now still at Rs.242.Yesterday there was a 20% upper circuit…..This is how my call use to give returns but here no one has patience .Everyone wants results instantly…..There are many such cases but as everybody who knows me well since MMB also knows that I rarely boast of my successful picks…..that I have kept for my readers and followers to come up with it.
What more an investor wants when whole market is going down and your stock is making a 20% UC?

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Crudes tanks to $134 and Dow up by 252 points.....

I read Ahmed’s comments.I would have also given the answer pointwise but I am refraining to do it.
The post he pasted of Spandan, if someone looks at it then ,many answers can be found in the post itself.
Well, I have discussed many things and many views here .I think we do not need to discuss same and same thing here.I will discuss same things here when it needed be.
Today , Crude tanked by $4 at around $134 and according to my view, it has made a double top of $147 in a very short time, say within a week.
On Crude tanking Dow went up by over 250 points …but Indian Market is not showing the strength…WHY?When Dow is going up on positive news flow, why Indian Market is not showing the uptrend?Can anyone explain , why this is happening?
Mr.Ahmedsir, can you or Spandan explain me why this is not happening?When the real problem is in USA , why USA market reacts positively on good news and not Indian Market?I suggest Ahmedsir to go to ISG again and ask the masters there like Kukku, Spandan,Carlos, Chanish and likes ,my above query and come back here when u get one….
See, the real thing that is happening here in Indian Market is , our market is not tanking because of Global slowdown or US market going down…..but because it is a master plan by bears along with FII’s who are selling in big way…..and not letting market to move an inch even though US market or Asian markets goes up…….

I am unable to understand why these doomsdayers do not see this?But , ya , they are doomsdayers , why should they see that?

I have written ealier,I am a positive person.Always try to see Good in Bad and Positive in any Negative talk…..but some are always negative…..they always tell you negative in any good atmosphere or well tell you bad of any good person…… Hence Beware from these type of persons....

I was just seeing the CNBC USA and was really surprised to see a big rally of over 250 point today….as soon as Crude went down by $4 to $134……and the front runners were whom?All Financial stocks were up by over 20% and minimum 10%…..Dow reacted immediately……so try to understand the Modus Operandi….of Bears…..
In India Bears do not wants to let market go up any time, otherwise it can’t break like it is breaking…all the way to 12400……hence Dow is still up over 11000 because it is not breaking on any good news but goes up and hence the loss is less at Dow while it is huge here in Indian Market..…they wants to scare everyone so that they can rule forever( I think this the BEST way I can explain the Bears Plan)
Now can anyone tell(MrAhmed sir)what has the Crude going down has to do with Financialstocks?The whole sector is in a MESS then why these sector outperformed today at Dow?
There can be a slow down but then the effect is much much larger by any parameters….. in our Indian Market.
I again ask those who are giving bearish signals that market can go down to even 6000 or even 3000……why there is such a big contrast between US market and Indian Market?When Dow goes up, why Sensex do not go up?According to the post and news I am reading,this is the end of an Era of USA then why US market is not breaking as our Indian Market is breaking?The effect should be seen as market discounts it early before it happens…..
Well, our market is tanking because we will slow down,The results are still coming good and still market discounted that… it only the Indian Market who discounts the future well in advance not others?
The only way this can be explained is Bears are selling in Indian Market with the help of some FII’s and they have sold hugely by borrowing stocks as well.Otherwise I am seeing no reasons for Sensex to be at 12400 and that too in such a short time……even though the economy is slowing down a bit….The real anamoly is there is no upmove…..that is just indigestible…..
As I have said earlier , Crude has to come down and it will.Crude has made a double top in technical language and that too in a very short time .That is not a good sign for Crude speculators.The way crude is going up,the whole world can be in a depression which can even be more dangerous then 1929!
If US has to survive then crude has to come down. It is as simple maths as 1+1=2....
Let us see what is there is store for us tommorow… our Indian Market…..
The real test came when Infy showed a good performance and still market rejected the results…that made me more convinced that these is all a game ……
And last but not the least, this is my view and I can go totally wrong.......Sensex may touch 9000, 6000 or even 3000 , means back to 2001.........
I do not claim anything........

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

George Soros has become bullish on India......

What more does one want? .......As I have written, there is only India and China left to make money with GDP growth at 7.5% (due to slow down) .......others are either in negative growth rate or very negligible to write for......
Sooner or later FII's has to come back......they will buy what they sold at much higher rate.....


Read on:

Billionaire Investor’s Hedge Fund Quantum Goes On A Buying-Spree, Invests Rs 600 Cr In Various Cos Since Feb As FIIs Turn Sellers
Vijay Gurav MUMBAI

BILLIONAIRE global investor George Soros has turned contrarian on the Indian stock market, which has seen stocks being beaten down over the past few weeks. His hedge fund Quantum, which was reported to have posted earnings of over 30% last year, went on a buying-spree at a time, when most funds were dumping stocks in a sliding market. On July 4, Quantum Fund bought a 3.8% equity in Jain Irrigation Systems, and close to 1% of the holding of Jai Corp for a value consideration of Rs 167 crore. Since February, the fund has made investments valued at close to Rs 600 crore, or $ 140 million, in various companies, including Indiabulls Financial Services, Indiabulls Real Estate and Kalindee Rail Nirman. Quantum’s selective stock picking comes at a time, when institutional investors have been pulling out a large chunk of money amid concerns over a combination of factors such as weak global markets, soaring global oil prices and spiralling inflation in India. “Hedge funds normally are active, when there is some momentum in the market. Quantum may be trying to do some value-buying, but one has to see how long the fund stays invested, given the prevailing uncertain market conditions,” said a stock broker. George Soros is famed for betting against the British pound in 1992 and making over $1 billion in the process, bruising the Bank of England (BoE) which fought a losing battle, ending up drawing down its reserves. Much later, he was attacked by former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad for speculating in currencies of South-East Asia. Indeed, Mr Soros had also lent money to Russia during troubled times. Among his latest acquisitions in India, Mr Soros bought a fresh stake of 3.8% in Jain Irrigation for Rs 121 crore. The stocks were bought at Rs 442.9 per share against the current market price of Rs 483. The stock appreciated 5.4% despite a flat movement in the Sensex during the past week. Apart from Quantum, a few other leading funds — Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and FID Funds —hold individual stakes ranging between 1.7% and 5% in Jain Irrigation. Mr Soros also picked up a small stake of 0.9% in Jai Corp at Rs 282 against Friday’s closing of Rs 372. The scrip, in fact, has vaulted 27% in one week, outperforming the market by a wide margin. In the past, the legendary investor had picked up stake in many other companies, and is known to have invested several million dollars across sectors. Two Indiabulls group companies — Indiabulls Financial Services and Indiabills Real Estate — are notable examples of Quantum’s recent acquisitions. The fund held 2.2% and 3.6%, respectively, in the two companies as on March 31, 2008. It also owns a 7.1% stake in Kalindee Rail Nirman, of which 6.8% was bought for Rs 32 crore in February. Hedge fund inflows are expected to have slowed down significantly, with the stock market turning extremely bearish after the biggest bull run in the Indian stock market that ended in January 2008. Since hedge funds mostly operate as sub-accounts of foreign institutional investors (FIIs), their activity is also reflected in the flows of foreign portfolio investors on Indian bourses. These investors have pulled out funds aggregating Rs 30,000 crore, or $7 billion, of Indian equities while the Sensex crashed 7400 points, or 35%, from its peak of 20873 on January 8.

Monday, July 14, 2008

LIC buying in big way........

The latest figures reveals that LIC and ICICI prudential were more then equal buyer then FII selling…
FII sold over $bn in 1st qr of 09 and LIC and ICICI prudential were buyer more then that.

Read on:

LIC, ICICI Prudential invest Rs 13,000 crore and Rs 2,000 crore respectively in the first quarter of FY09.
Insurance companies have emerged as the big boys of Dalal Street with Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) alone investing around Rs 13,000 crore in the first quarter of 2008-09.
The largest private insurer ICICI Prudential bought equity worth Rs 2,000 crore during the same period.
According to Sebi data, foreign institutional investors have sold Rs 14,000 crore in the first quarter this year.
There is no data on the equity investments of life insurance companies as a whole. But they have been the biggest buyers among the domestic institutions, according to company executives.
With insurance companies reporting sustained double-digit growth in new sales and unit-linked insurance plans (Ulips) holding their own, the investment from the segment continues to remain robust.
"We look at the long term economic growth prospects for India. We do not take long-term equity buying decisions based on short-term volatility," said ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Executive Director NS Kannan.
"We will confine (our purchases) to NSE's CNX-Nifty and junior Nifty," added an LIC executive.
LIC is expected to invest around Rs 60,000 crore in the stock markets this year compared to around Rs 42,000 crore in 2007-08. Its investible corpus is expected to climb up from last year's Rs 1,50,000 crore to over Rs 1,75,000 crore this year.
A Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance executive said the company is hoping to invest around Rs 2,000 crore in equities during the current financial year.
Max New York Life has invested around Rs 500 crore in equities so far this year and expects to invest a similar amount till December.
Max New York Life Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Gary R Bennett said the bias in favour of equity was still strong.
"Currently, we are noticing a strange phenomenon. Our customers are increasingly switching from balanced options to equity, as the general expectation is that the market has bottomed out," added SBI Life Managing Director & CEO US Roy.
"A bear market cycle is a fantastic buying opportunity, subject to the right choice. In the first six months of this year, Ulips constituted 85 per cent of the products sold by us," Bennett told Business Standard.

My Commnets:

This shows that all the selling were absorb by our local MF .Viz LIC and ICICI Prudential funds.
What we have to analyse from this?It is clear that though the selling was absorbed by LIC and ICICI market tanked in big way….it means bears has borrowed some stocks and sold in the market to buy it later at lower price and make a killing….
Well,when the stocks sold to Institution like LIC and ICICI insurance arm these are long term money and hence they will not sell at lower the prices from where they have bought.It means that a good positive reason and market can explode…..
Well, these are all analysis and it may go wrong in a big way……
According to the figures given above,LIC has invested Rs 13000 cr in 1st qr and ready to invest more 29000 cr in rest of the year.Means total investment from LIC would be Rs 42000 cr which is almost 70% of what FII use to invest since last 4-5 yrs, every year.
The insurance business is a very lucrative business as the institution has to pay less and gets premium in huge instalements.No wonder BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC of Warren Buffet is having an Insurance arm and that is the only business which is making a lucrative business in Warren Buffets portfolio and will remain doing it for ever.
Well, I do not say that there is no slow down in economy but the effect is much much more then it should be. Our market need not have this catastrophic effect.
As market use to discount future atleast 6 months before it happens , as I have always written that “don’t look at present earning”as it is the future earning and growth that market discounts and not the present earning.So don’t be amazed when some stocks are going up and results and earning are not matching up……
So it can also be assumed that market may be now discounting the slow growth and may bounce back strongly when tide turns.
We have seen in past that when tide turns, it turns very fast.If inflation is now almost at the peak and crude can come down, bears are in for a bad drubbing….
Let us see what happens…..

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Prospects for renewable energy ........

Prospects for renewable energy

The future could well look back to 200708 as the tipping point for renewable energy. Two global developments have set nations to re-evaluate their energy strategies — the dramatic re-pricing of fossil fuels and the security threat, and the growing opinion on climate change.
The challenge for India could not be greater. We are the worlds fourth largest consumer of electricity, import about 5 per cent of our coal and 75 per cent of oil, and are increasingly exploring overseas supplies for future imports. Renewable energy forms a bare 3 per cent, is seen as a less reliable source to feed power grids, and needs subsidies to compete. So, is there hope? The higher cost of energy and environmental concerns have brought renewed attention on renewable energy. But the confidence in its future comes from two other factors: new gains in technology, and reforms in the industry structure.
The most expensive of the renewable technologies today, solar photovoltaic, has seen a significant cost reduction (30 per cent drop in the last decade; and is one-sixth of the 1980 costs). Studies suggest that cost reductions are closely associated with volumes produced (the effect of experience curves); and a further 30 per cent drop is forecast by 2012. Perhaps as a sign of our times, in 2007, for the first time in history, more poly-silicon was used for solar power than in semiconductors.
This has a key policy implication for promoting the renewable manufacture chain. The German renewable energy law spurred new investment in wind and solar power (about 60 companies operate in solar power alone, employing over 40,000 people, about 40 times more than a decade back). China encourages manufacture across the solar value chain, from feedstock to systems, and intends to boost local demand by rural electrification policies. The key is to take early steps to build a manufacturing base today to serve power generation tomorrow cost-effectively.
The regulators play an important role in creating the market through RPO (renewable procurement obligation) and by setting preferential feed-in tariffs. In Madhya Pradesh, a recent regulatory initiative in bio-mass has helped attract 260 Mw of investment intent against a practically nil base.
The renewable energy industry is fast professionalising. A fundamental shift is taking place in how renewable energy is managed; graduating from small, off-grid applications aimed at local use to largescale grid-connected projects for mainstream supply. We have seen this across small hydro, biomass, wind, and now witness it in solar (globally, in 1992, 70 per cent of all applications were off-grid; now 90 per cent are on-grid applications). In addition to scale economies, this has helped bring cheaper finance, reduce O&M costs and downtime, and in all, has improved project viability.
Reaching the market is a challenge. Utilities have reservations about renewable power for reasons of reliability, but also for the extensive transmission connectivity it demands. The reforms in electricity and competition are the key. Open access provisions that permit generators to meet requirements and compete for eligible consumers over the grid, helped finance a number of renewable power projects in recent times. It has also led to interest from private equity, and to green companies listing on stock exchanges in India and overseas.
The profile of investors, too, is changing: from largely financial owners of a few assets, to now green companies with diversified portfolios, bringing in new financial, technical and managerial expertise. The mindset of power utilities is changing too: the recent PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Utilities Survey, tracking priorities of power utilities, records “encouragement of renewable energy” as the top-most issue for the first time (up from No. 6 barely three years earlier). Consumers increasingly have a choice; in its 2008 Tariff Order, the Association for the Promotion of Research into the Economy of Carbon introduced an optional “green tariff” of Rs 6.70 per kWh for consumers of all forms of energy renewable energy (any surplus goes to support similar projects).
So, are we on the right track? A lot more work needs to be done. Some states have not set any RPO targets (Uttar Pradesh, NorthEastern states), and in others the targets are rather small (Orissa, Gujarat). In states that have set RPO, the targets are more influenced by use of local factors (such as wind, biomass), while some have no such resources (Delhi). We must broaden the use and trade of renewable power across state boundaries (not done today as regulatory treatment remains at the state level), through renewable trading certificates and a green exchange.
The experience of ultra mega power projects shows that structuring and facilitation can help achieve very cost-effective outcomes. This is a lesson for renewable energy too, given its higher risks and greater preparatory costs. The state agencies must conduct resource surveys, simplify procedures and the approvals process, and run open and transparent bid processes. Our recent experience in hydro power shows that such an approach can bring new investment, jobs, and potentially more revenue to the government.
Natural resources are not unlimited, and efficient use is a policy concern. Today, there are worries of poor use of wind sites, wasted agro residue, under-rated hydro turbines, and such. This calls for graduating the incentive mechanism from being largely input-based (capital subsidies, accelerated depreciation, tax concessions) to a more effective mix of input- and output-based incentives (generation, income-tax breaks). The blend must be such as to help finance projects and improve viability, but also drive efficiency.
The regulators must also take a fresh look at pricing, by moving away from a largely cost-based approach and recognise avoided costs. For example, solar power generation is coincident with demand peaks (both, during the day, and seasonally), and is least effective when the load conditions are generally light.
India has set for itself a target of generating 10 per cent of electricity from renewable sources by 2012. Like other targets we may see this missed, but with the developments set off by energy prices, climate change, renewable technology, and sector reforms this goal may be sooner achieved than many others. The author is Leader Power Practice, PricewaterhouseCoopers
Generating 10 per cent of electricity from renewable sources may be achieved sooner than many other targets

Friday, July 11, 2008

Infy result and guidence will be a trend decider.....


Though USA market tanked over 100 points yesterday, our market just shed 30 points and nifty actually gained.
I think that Infy result is going to play a major role here from today onwards for deciding the future course of the market and I feel that Infy will not only come out with good nos but also will give a very optimist guidance.It is clear that all FII’s have shed stake in all frontline IT stock , namely Infy, Wipro, Satyam,I-flex etc as rupee was appreciating then and US was slowing down.But as FII’s sold here in our market in huge quantity and also repatriated the amt back home, selling in rupees came and buying in dollars also was there for selected FII’s who had to sold on compulsion due to heavy loss, made rupee weak and hence rupee is now at 43 against dollar.
This will have a very positive effect on the bottomline of IT cos.
I have already wrote that IT is the sector to watch in my previous post and also have given 3-4 names in small caps and midcap space.
I think a temporary bottom have been made at 12800 and seems for atleast 2-3 months we would not see that bottom.Means we should see a good rally developing from onwards.
This is my view and I may get wrong again here.But the reason I am seeing for this is
1) The clarity has come that Nuclear Deal is still on and it will soon materialize
2) There is no danger for UPA government to fall
3) Leftist has been left aside by a single master stroke by…( Fill In The Blanks)…………
4) I am seeing more upper circuits …
5) I am seeing less 52 week lows, means the ratio has decreased..
6) I am seeing lots of value in A gr stocks as well
7) Almost all fundamentals stocks are getting cheaper and cheaper
Moreover one should remember that Indian Market tanked more of FII’s distress selling then the fundamentals.Means though inflation has gone up it is due to more Crude price rise then anything else.And hence as soon as crude comes down Inflation will also come down. Both are closely connected.
Always buy stocks which are underowened.This has always been my policy to buy stock which are underowned as then only we get them cheap.
You all must have seen , I have always discussed stocks where people are not knowing.
I again suggest all my readers that do read all my COMMENTS OR REPLY to any reader.I sometimes write some stocks which I may have not discussed on front page…..
Best Of Luck to all……
Long Live India Growth Story…..

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Most Gorgeous couple in universe......

Do u know who is the gorgeous couple in the universe? SMILE and TEARS. Rarely they meet, but if they meet that will be the most gorgeous moment ever!

Got it?.......


ANG AUTO goes for Buy Back Plan....@215 when CMP is 82!

ANG Auto has announced a Buy Back for its eq at the rate of 20% of the price over that were quoted in 3 rd Jan 08.....
I hope Mr Siva will have no grievences for this ....!

ANG Auto - Buy back Offer

Chartered Capital & Investments Ltd ("Manager to the Buyback") on behalf of ANG Auto Ltd ("Target Company") has issued this Public Announcement ("PA") to the Equity Shareholders / Beneficial Owners of the Target Company, pursuant to the provisions of Regulation 8(1) read with Regulation 15(C) & in compliance with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Buy Back of Securities) Regulations, 1998, as amended & contains the disclosures as specified in Schedule II to these Regulations.The Target Company hereby announces the buy-back ("Buyback") of its own fully paid-up Equity Shares of the face value of Rs 10 each ("Shares") from the owners of Equity Shares of the Company from the open market through Stock Exchange using the electronic trading facilities of the Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd ("BSE") and National Stock Exchange of India Ltd ("NSE") ("Stock Exchanges"), in accordance with the provisions of Sections 77A, 77AA, 77B and all other applicable provisions, if any, of the Companies Act, 1956 ("the Act") & the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Buy Back of Securities) Regulations, 1998 as amended ("the Buy-back Regulations") & the relevant provisions in the Articles of Association of the Company, at a price not exceeding Rs 215 per share ("Maximum Buyback Price") payable in cash, for an aggregate amount not exceeding of Rs 1612.50 lacs (Rupees Sixteen crore Twelve lac Fifty thousand only) ("the Buyback Size"). The Buyback Size at the maximum level represents 24.30% of the aggregate of the Company's paid-up Equity Share Capital & Free Reserves as on March 31, 2007.The Aggregate Paid up equity Share capital & Free Reserves of the Company as at March 31, 2007 was Rs 6636.03 lacs. At the Maximum Buyback Price of Rs 215 per Share & for the Buyback Size not exceeding Rs 1612.50 lacs, the maximum number of Shares that can be bought back would be 7,50,000 Shares, representing 6.62% of the outstanding fully paid up Equity Shares of the Company as on March 31, 2007. In the event of the average purchase price being lower than Maximum Buyback Price of Rs 215/-, the maximum number of Equity Shares that can be bought back (i.e 7,50,000 Equity Shares) would not stand altered, resulting in the Maximum Buyback Size of Rs 1612.50 lacs standing reduced proportionately. The maximum amount that will be utilized for the buyback will not exceed 25% of the aggregate of paid up Equity Share capital & Free Reserves of the Company as on March 31, 2007. The Maximum Buyback Price of Rs 215/- per share offers a premium of approximately 29.40% over the closing price prevailing at the date of Board Meeting held on November 12, 2007 for approving the Buyback. The Maximum Buyback Price of Rs 215/- per share offers a premium of approximately 20.11% over the closing price prevailing at the date of passing of the special resolution by approval of shareholders through postal ballot, i.e. January 03, 2008.The maximum amount required by the Company for the said Buyback aggregating to Rs 1612.50 lacs will be met out of the current reserves & surplus and/or cash balances and/or internal accruals of the Company.Schedule of activities:Board Meeting approving the Buy Back - November 12, 2007Special Resolution passed by the Shareholders approving the Buyback through Postal ballot : January 03, 2008Date of Public Announcement - July 07, 2008Date of opening of the Buyback - July 18, 2008Acceptance of Shares - Within 15 days of the relevant payout dates of the Stock ExchangesExtinguishment of Shares - Within 7 days of acceptance as aboveLast Date for the Buy-back - January 02, 2009 or when company completes the buyback to the extent of Rs 1612.50 lacs or such earlier date as may be directed by the Board of Directors at any time (by giving appropriate notice of such earlier date, if any) whichever is earlier.All payment obligations related to the Buyback shall be completed by the last date for the Buyback.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Directly Coming from Horses mouth.........

It has ultimately come .Economy/Market will bounce back, that is what PC Chidambaram , our Fin Min spoke today......What more now one wants?
Here is the text:

Economy will bounce back: Chidambaram
9 Jul, 2008, 1721 hrs IST, PTI

CHENNAI: Asserting that economy would bounce back, Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Wednesday said "right attitude and patience" could help the country face the problems like soaring inflation. "Fast growing economies (like India) will face such problems. But the right attitude, patience and grit can help us not only face the problem but also tackle it," he said after laying foundation stone for Indian Bank's new head office here. "We came out of crises like the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the 1989-90 foreign exchange reserve crisis. Can't we come out of the present situation?" he said. India had bailed itself out of other crises like the "first oil shock in 1973" and the 24 per cent inflation rate in 1979-80, he said.
"Despite the growing inflation (at 11.63 per cent for the week ended June 14), banks are still issuing loans and education loans alone to the tune of Rs 20,000 crore has been disbursed to 12 lakh students in the country," he said. He reiterated that the growing rates of crude oil had influenced prices commodities and metals, leading to overall rise and inflation. "But we can patiently handle the situation using globally accepted economic formulae," Chidambaram said. Since India was a growing economy, it was a "different ball game" to finance a growth rate of nine per cent against the five per cent a few years back. "Credit flow and money flow has expanded, as is the case with capital flow from abroad. Sometimes it leads to embarrassments like inflation, but we have to tackle it," the minister said.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

The biggest blot in Politics and still NO MAYHEM?

The biggest upset in politics , that is , Left deciding to withdraw support to Congress and still market was down just 176 points.
How many thought of market plunging only this much?It went down by 300 points but recovered half in last session.
Hence it becomes now clear that market already discounted the withdrawal of left support as, if this was not discounted, then market could have tanked by over 1000 points as destabilization of government in center is looked upon as a big negative for market.
I think Left made a tactical error while withdrawing support to UPA at thsi time as they already were able to garner support from SP and there is no way congress led UPA government can have any problem to go through the much needed Nulcear Deal with USA which will put us in an enviable postion with other countries especially the neighbouring countries.
The SP support is a master stroke of the younger sibling of the Ambani family.While making arrangement of support for UPA led congress government, Anil Ambani has showed his political acumen as well besides been showing how much astute he is when he was given just Khokha of companies when the two brothers departed.
While the elder get the cream of the co , like IPCL and Ril Ind,where all the oil and gas story was there in it , Anil Ambani got Rcom and Ril Energy(Old Bombay Suburb) Ril Capital.While only Rcom was having some good subscriber , Ril Energy which was Bombay Suburb Electric Supply(BSES), this co was taken over by late shree Dhirubhai Ambani which was mere a power distribution co in some suburbs in Mumbai as Tata Power also was the main player in Mumbai and that too in most of the part.
While BSES was just a power distribution co even when Anil Ambani took over , it has come a long way after the two brothers deprated.According to my view , if it would have been other person and not Anil Ambani then the devision between two brothers would never have happened because while the equal devision work was done by the wellkown figure, Mr K V Kamath the head of ICICI,the ratio that came was 70:30 in favour of Mukesh as it was impossible to divide the co on valuation which Ril Ind possesses which consist of big oil and gas reserves.
And at that time it was decided that Mukesh Ambani would make up that loss of 20% by giving Cauvery Basin Gas at reduced rate but Mukesh is not ready to give anything to Anil more after seeing that AA can over cross him in wealth even without that gas he has to give to AA as a part of this pie for equal devision.Instead he is trying to create all obstacles not to let Anil do whatever he wants to.MA knows that if the MTM deal is done AA will surely be bigger then him.
Even if we take Ril Cap which AA get in his part, Rcap was nothing but a small financal entity and nothing more and was seeing the price of just Rs 150 or so when the two departed but it was AA’s acumen that he made Rcap a financial power house and I think Rcap is going to go places in future as well.Though in financial world , According to my view AA has showed much much more business guile then MA as the later was already sitting on a big business while AA created everything on his own from whatever Khokha which were empty which he got when two departed as can be seen as Rcom use to have some business while Rcap and Ril Energy were just companies and nothing more….which AA got but still AA was confident of himself that he will succeed with this as well.
Well,the SP party support for nuclear deal to congress will act as a great backing for AA’s project as it is a wellknown fact that Amarsingh is very near to AA and so is Amitabh Bachhan’s family.
Well, coming back to market, the small fall of 176 points is the testimony that market is not giving much weightage on this development as this is already discounted.
Only if crude goes up from here we can see more down side otherwise on any good news market will react positively or to say atleast will not succumb to negative news………..anymore....

Monday, July 7, 2008

Has FII's lost interest in Indian Stock market?.....

Has FII's lost interest in Indian Stock market? ,the below statistic says a different story.....
Read on:

Who says FIIs are running away? Sebi registers 244 fresh accounts in 32 days
FII Registrations Rise To 1,400 While Sub-Accounts Now Top The 4,300-Mark

Shailesh Menon MUMBAI

THE Indian stock market may be the secondworst performing one among emerging markets this year, but that has not deterred a host of foreign portfolio investors who are keen on putting their money in local stocks. The sustained interest in India, which is perceived to be a long-term economic growth story, seems to be reflected in the growing number of overseas portfolio investors, registering with stock market watchdog the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to invest in stocks here. At the last count, the number of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who have registered with the regulator has risen to over 1,400 while sub-account registrations have topped the 4,000-mark. According to officials, among the new investors who have signed up are some Middle East sovereign wealth funds and several institutional investors from the US, including some pension funds. The rise in their numbers has also got to do with the fact that Sebi has eased the norms for sub-accounts well over a month ago. While most investors attribute the rise in numbers to the relaxing of entry rules, the closure of the participatory note (P-note) route and keen investment interest among broad-based funds — hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds included — are reckoned to be other compelling reasons, as their interests are usually smaller accounts, which the foreign portfolio investor manages for a smaller group, including partnership firms and individuals for a fee. Sebi had amended its regulations to widen the definition of foreign portfolio investors, or FIIs, as they are popularly known by allowing non-resident Indians (NRIs) and sovereign wealth funds to trade in Indian shares and government securities through sub-accounts. The amendments also allowed unregulated university funds, endowments and charitable trusts to register as FIIs. Since then, 244 fresh sub-accounts have been registered with the regulator in 32 days. This takes the total number of sub-accounts registrations of foreign portfolio investors in India to 4,320. There are 1,410 registered FIIs in India now, with 44 having been added since May 22 — the day Sebi eased the norms relating to entry of foreign portfolio investors. “The recent notification on FIIs and sub-accounts has cleared several ambiguities with regards to investing in India. We can expect several more sub-account registrations, as this is an easier route (than opting for FII registrations) for foreign investors to invest in India,” said Kotak Mahindra Bank head of international business Paul Parambi. According to Mr Parambi, who also heads the offshore funds and the FII division of Kotak Mahindra, many of these entrants were investing in India through the P-note route earlier. This means, not all entrants will bring in fresh money, Mr Parambi said. However, there are some more procedural problems plaguing foreign investors. “The first one is where FIIs have to give an undertaking to Sebi that their sub-accounts have not issued any offshore derivatives instrument, including P-notes, or purchased them from non-resident Indians or resident Indians. As a result of this clause, several FIIs, who earlier planned to open several sub-accounts, have now shortened their expansion plans. Foreign investors are also not very happy about the declaration (given to Sebi), wherein FIIs take full responsibility for the conduct of subaccounts,” said a senior official at a US-headquartered FII brokerage. According to experts, nearly 60% of new entrants (those who received approvals recently) are investors from the US. The remaining accounts belong to European, Japanese and West Asian investors.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Only for Technical Analyst.........

I have been through for an article which I read today on ET which is full of technical view.
I hope some technical following of readers will answer me what they think of this view and if they do not agree it means there are many theories in Technicals and one is not sure which to follow as the writer has pointed some very good reasons with statistic....I perticularly will be happy to have a view from our learned friend Mr Ahmedsir.....who has advised me why I do not follow technicals and advice.....

Read on:

Sensex rally more than just short covering
3 Jul, 2008, 0247 hrs IST,Shakti Shankar Patra, ET Bureau

There’s an unwritten thumb rule in the market. When the local tabloid dumps hot Bollywood gossip to write about Sensex movements, you know it is time to watch out. We saw it happen in January this year and with bearishness reaching hysterical levels, this had to happen now. And it did, with a ferocity that left even the staunchest of bulls flabbergasted. After Wednesday’s amazing turnaround in which the Nifty gained over 5%, there’s now just one question at the top of every ones mind, ‘Have Indian equities bottomed out?’ While there cannot be a concrete answer to this as yet, there seems to be enough reasons to believe that Wednesday’s move was more than just short covering. It’s not uncommon for secular bull markets to retrace 50% before they continue in their primary trend, which is up. A classic example of this is the current “once in a life time” bull run in gold. After hitting a low of $253.85 on February 16, 2001, gold prices hit an intermediate top of 389.05 on February 5, 2003. Then started a savage correction in which gold shed 50% of this $135.2 gain to hit nearly $320 in April 2003. However, this turned out to be just a bull market correction as gold prices went on to hit levels above $1,000 earlier this year. Similarly, although the equity bull run started in India from a Nifty low of 920 on April 28, 2003, it started in right earnest only after the market crash of May 2004, which followed the ouster of the NDA government. So from a low of 1292.20 hit on May 17, 2004, the Nifty rallied all the way to hit a high of 6357.10 on January 8, 2008. A 50% retracement of this entire 5064.9 points gives you a Nifty figure of 3824.65. And the panic bottom that hit on Wednesday was 3848.25 while Nifty futures hit an unbelievably close low of 3818.10. Even for followers of Japanese candlesticks, Wednesday’s remarkable recovery meant that the Nifty almost created a bullish engulfing pattern. In technical parlance, this happens when the body of a large white candle completely engulfs the previous day’s black candle. As the name suggest, this means that bulls have totally “engulfed” or overtaken control from bears and if it happens after a prolonged bearish phase, is seen as a sign of a trend reversal. Now whether these technicals work and the end to this carnage is just too difficult a call to take, one thing is clear after Wednesday, bulls may be down but they are not completely out. Therefore, unless the lows of Wednesday are violated, there’s still hope for the resumption of the bull market in which this painful phase will be written off as just another correction like what happened in gold.

Some more how the market is broken with planning.... and has nothing to do with bad or negative news on Horizen.....otherwise market should break on its planning is needed......

I am pasting it what I read in "Heard On the Street " in ET column:

A ) Tata Steel comes under bear assault ..
The bear cartel now appears to have trained its guns on Tata Steel. The stock has been the receiving end of what looks like a concerted hammering in the last three sessions. On Friday, over 2.5 million shares changed hands on the BSE, but delivery-based trades were just 16% of the total. Short sellers are betting that steel producers will shortly announce a cut in prices. Investors bullish on Tata Steel are of the view that such a steep in product prices look unlikely, given that demand is fairly strong. However, they do not have the money to back their conviction. Due to the sustained fall in stock prices since the last one month, bulls are struggling to find the money to keep up with their margin commitments. Meanwhile, bears are targeting key stocks in the Nifty with a vengeance. They have been steadily building up short positions in ONGC July futures, forcing a Rs 27 discount to the spot. Wipro has been another of their favourites, where the July futures are quoting at a discount of Rs 4 to the spot.

My comments:
I was in know of this modus operandi and but didn"t discuss it here as I have no proof to back my view but as I read it in ET I am writing it here.
The bear attack are all mastermind with the help of FII's....they move hand in hand.....The above example show how Nifty can be broken while hammaring some selected Nifty stock........

Now the second one:

B) Reverse swing
Proprietary trading desks of many foreign institutional investors doing derivatives arbitrage, have been forced to offload their cash market positions in the past few weeks, with many stock futures now quoting at a discount to the spot. These players used to short sell stock futures that were quoting at a discount to the cash market, buy an equivalent quantity of shares, and lock in the difference, which amounted to around 12% annually. Every month, the funds would then roll over their positions, as the difference between the futures and shares remained more or less constant. But with prices of futures slipping below the spot price, it has become unviable for them to carry forward their positions. As a result, the funds are dumping the shares they had purchased as part of their arbitrage transaction.

My comments:
One should see how the FII's plays ......
I have just written a post that Bears have shorted $7 bn in market which is bigger then what FII's sold in last 6 months....the day the tide will turn......see what happens....!!

A good movement by sensex on friday last....

Market went up on Friday.The Inflations nos were weak.Oil went up and still market didn’t come down….
When rupee was appreciating analyst has problem that it is hindering export growth.When rupee is depreciating then also they have problem.Says oil bill is going up… can anyone tell me how one can fight with this breed of analyst.
There is a great story.Whether that is true or not is not important but it worth a read….I read it somewhere and am pasting it here….


Once upon a time there was a shepherd looking after his sheep on the side of a deserted road.
Suddenly a brand new Porsche screeches to a halt. The driver, a man dressed in a Versace suit, Cerutti shoes, Police sunglasses, Rolex wrist-watch, and a Armani tie, gets out and asks the Shepherd:
"If I can tell you how many sheep you have, will you give me one of them?" The shepherd looks at the young man, and then looks at the large flock of grazing sheep and replies:"Okay."
The young man parks the car, connects his laptop to the mobile-fax, enters a NASA Webster, scans the ground using his GPS, opens a database and 60 Excel tables filled with logarithms and pivot tables, then prints out a 10 page report on his high-tech mini-printer.
He turns to the shepherd and says, "You have exactly 1,586 sheep here."
The shepherd cheers, "That's correct, you can have your sheep." The young man makes his pick and puts it in the back of his Porsche.
The shepherd looks at him and asks: "If I guess your profession, will you return my animal to me?" The young man answers, "Yes, why not".
The shepherd says, "You are a Management Consultant from a top-notch consultancy like McKinsey,etc..".
How did you know?" asks the surprised young man.
"Very simple," answers the shepherd.
"First, you came here without being called.
Second, you charged me a fee to tell me something I already knew,
Third, you don't understand anything about my business...
Now can I have my sheep back?"

That is how this Consultant firms are……They just do nothing and teaches you what you know…..and ask for hefty fees…..If by chance they prove right somewhere then sky is the limit for them…as they will go on speaking world over that they have set things right for others though it is once in a while…..
Well coming back to our market, rupee is depreciating and hence will have positive effect on IT , Phrama and other export related companies…
So watchout for IT sector…..Like Compact Disc, ASM Techno, ABM Knowledge in low price category……
And there are scores of stocks to look at with P/E at 5 to 10 and even less.
Like say, Jayaswal Neco,Wanbury Ltd,Tanfac Ltd,Kirloskar Ferro, Impex Ferro…..I think the list is long and one can pick up stocks at will.
Even Gremach Infra,Sujana Towers has come down very much and becomes a buy anytime…..
I think Jyoti Ltd is also looking extremely good to me.
Well, as it was time to buy at sensex 14700 as we thought it was the bottom, then I think at 13k also time to buy if it was then at 14700….
Well the situation has not gone so bad that we can go to this level.This is an excess hammering by bears and it can get stopped anytime.See as I wrote early with all negatives like Inflation,Crude etc market went up ……
I am not sure where the bottom is….I use to write that 14k shouldn’t be broken but it get broked…and I failed horribly in predicting that.I confess that I was not able to see that Crude can go up even beyond 120-130 and actually I was expecting that it should tank in June itself.But alas! Wishes were horses…….
Well,somehow I still feel that crude rally should get punctured.In past whenever crude has rise so fast it has then come down very drastically …..and that will be the day for reversal in sentiment.I have always emphasized on sentiment.If sentiment is good fundamentals come .No sentiment no fundas works….we are seeing that now….
Kirloskar Ferro being a great co ,great gr is available at just ¼ the high…what is the justification of this? Well, one can say that the runup was not over 100, agreed , but Rs 25 is also not the fair can argue that the prices which went up were wrong but one can't argue that the value comes to just 1/4 of the high.......and that goes for each and every stocks.Try to find out those and one will get many....
Well, I have proved wrong this time and no guanretee I do not do that again.
Take your own call and Best Of Luck…..

Saturday, July 5, 2008

A view on Oil.............

I read this article somewhere else and has pasted for the readers to have a look and understand what is going on in Crude and Commodities market.....

Oil Price: Fixing The Blame. Not The Problem

All those speculators getting the blame for driving up the price of oil these days - just who are they? For part of the answer, look in the mirror.

The retirement savings of workers across the country, entrusted to pension fund managers, are being plowed into one of the few investments that has delivered phenomenal returns in recent years.

For decades, futures contracts were mostly traded by commodity producers and the people who used the actual products, such as crude oil, corn and soybeans. Agreeing to a price today for a commodity to be delivered in, say, two months is a way to smooth out price fluctuations for those supplies.

But large investors faced with the threat of inflation have increasingly used them as protection against the falling dollar. That includes pension funds, along with investment banks, mutual funds and private hedge funds.

Research firm Ennis Knupp and Associates says $139 billion had been funneled into energy commodites, primarily crude oil, by the end of March - and it estimates more than half of that is from retirement money.

The investments have paid off. The Standard & Poor's GSCI index, which tracks a basket of commodities, is up 19 percent in the past five years, compared with just 9 percent for the S&P 500 stock index.

The risk is that if the remarkable run in oil and other futures markets reverses course, billions of dollars of retirement benefits could be wiped out.

"A pension fund is supposed to be investing money in secure, stable investments for the benefit of the people whose money they are investing," said Dan Lippe, an energy analyst at Houston-based Petral Consulting Inc.

"When we hit that wall and things start falling," he said, "they will fall very fast, and the pension funds that invested in commodities will see a tremendous loss of value." The retirement system for public employees in California, the largest in the nation, has $1.3 billion invested in commodities. Most of it tracks the S&P commodity index.

That's still just one-half of 1 percent of the fund's total $240 billion in assets, said Michael Schlachter, who advises the California pension fund. He said a collapse in oil or other commodity prices would have little effect on retirees.

Still, a growing chorus of experts is convinced retirement investments are enough to distort prices.

Billionaire George Soros, the airline industry and the International Monetary Fund are all pressuring Congress to curb speculation by large investors. Democrats in Congress say they hope to vote on restrictions by August.

"Your pension fund manager may be using your retirement money to drive up the price of oil," said Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., at a hearing earlier this week on speculation in commodities.

"What would happen if pension fund managers decided to increase their commodity investment by another 20-fold?" he asked.

Speculators put money into commodity markets simply to make money on their investments - unlike commercial investors, who are actually buying or selling orders for physical goods.

Energy analysts say it's unclear what effect speculators have had on oil prices, which climbed briefly to a new record above $142 on Friday before falling back.

But Stupak and other lawmakers have already dashed off more than a dozen proposals to rein in commodity trading, including limiting how many contracts speculators can hold and closing loopholes that allow them to skirt regulations.

Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., proposed banning pension funds and other large investors from commodities altogether. He dropped the idea after vigorous opposition by an association of public and private pension funds.

Schlachter, who is also managing director for investment consulting firm Wilshire Associates, called the idea "horrendously bad." He said pension funds should not be compared to Wall Street speculators, who assume huge risks every day to maximize returns.

"The pension plans we work with are using commodities only as a long-term hedge against inflation," he said.

Unlike the stock market, where there are a limited number of shares for each company, futures markets have no limits on contracts available. As long as a buyer can find a seller for each contract, investment opportunities are virtually unlimited.

Critics say retirement funds that accumulate contracts are artificially driving up commodity prices. In the case of oil, that means higher gas prices and more expensive food and other goods.

"If they're going to be in the futures market they need to trade rather than take this buy and hold strategy," said Michael Masters, portfolio manager of hedge fund Masters Capital Management. "That is the worst possible thing for the futures market."

Masters and other experts told members of Congress this week that eliminating excessive speculation could drive oil prices down to about $65 a barrel, less than half the current price.

Retirement funds have suffered at the hands of the market before. In 2002, when the stock market swooned after the dot-com crash and 9/11, retirement assets dropped $7 billion, losing 8 percent of their value.

Friday, July 4, 2008

Chrysler may be stumbling towards bankruptcy: JPMorgan

Regarding my last post here I am again getting news which are looking very very Ominous on US Economy.Here are some excerpts I read today somewhere else...

Read on:

Faced with soaring gas prices, a sputtering economy and a rapid US market shift away from trucks, the US auto industry's weakest player, Chrysler, may have to file for bankruptcy or sell its storied Jeep and Dodge Ram brands as early as next year, JPMorgan said Thursday. JPMorgan auto analyst Himanshu Patel dismissed the possibility of an imminent bankruptcy at GM, saying in a conference call with investors and media that such fears ``are completely overblown.'' The day before, GM shares slid to a 54-year low after Merrill Lynch auto analyst John Murphy wrote in a note to investors that a GM bankruptcy ``is not impossible if the market continues to deteriorate and significant incremental capital is not raised.
Patel said the situation at Chrysler LLC is far more perilous because it has limited assets to raise cash and is more heavily reliant on trucks and on the North American market. Chrysler sales fell 22 percent in the first six months of this year. Chrysler has had to release little financial information since the private-equity company Cerberus Capital Management LP bought it last year, but Patel estimated the automaker will burn through $4 billion this year and could be forced to file for bankruptcy protection or sell off parts of its business in the second half of 2009 if industry conditions don't improve. Patel said it's difficult to predict the most likely outcome for Chrysler, but he said South Korean or Chinese automakers covet Chrysler's U.S. distribution network. A bankruptcy filing could be a hit to Cerberus, which invested $6.1 billion in Chrysler as part of its acquisition and also backed a $500 million line of credit that Chrysler tapped last month.
My comments:

What is happening in US,man?Do anyone has clue?Are anyone serious about what is happening in USA?One by one a new skeleton is coming out of cupboard and Ben or anybody do not know from where the next casualty is going to come?I just wrote an article here previous day about crude prices going bersek and warned that it can make major problem which cannot be sloved even in decades…..
I named GM and Ford which are near to sink but now the name of Chrysler has also surfaced which shows that my concerns cannot be ignored and something should be done here.It is obvious that with Gas soaring at $4.50 and has the capacity of going to even $8 per gallon , when crude can reach $200 and over then who will buy this big cars which we are seeing them on road now?
Now we will take the names of Financial Institution and other co which are almost on a brink of Bankruptcy or already sinked…
1) Bear Stern Ltd ….already closed
2) Lehman Brothers….on the verge of collapse
3) Citi gr……on the verge of collapse
4) General Motors…..on the verge of collapse
5) Ford Motors………on the verge of collapse
6) Merill Lynch……already writing off subprime losses…don’t know when a big news of bankruptcy comes out….
7) UBS already writtenoff big amt…
not talking of Airlines sector......
The point here to emphasis is , no one knows what is going on in this big Financial Institution and when someone will announce another major writeoff and declare that they are over….
People who had put money in IRD and 401 in this finance co , their money are at stake.I am here in USA since 2nd Feb 2008 and I have seen here in US stock market that not a single share is available cheap.A turnaround and the stock is over 15 P/E!
If the master of the US economy are having sound sleep then they should haven’t that……This is a Life and Death question for entire USA and the entire world.US itself will sink but will also take the whole world in water drowened…..
How can one say that Dow is going cheap?Dow is down by just 15% while India and China are down by 40 and 50% respectively then which market is cheap is anybodies guess….It is not that valuations are still high….There the prices have corrected more.. then enough and that is because of constant selling by Hedge funds in Indian market.I have learnt that Hedge funds sold Rs 3100 cr in last 2 days in India.
India with crude and commodities bull run can slow down a bit , say like 7.5% GDP but it will be way ahead of US which will have already a negative growth and other Europians economy which are growing at around 1-2% rate…..
I still stand with my view that India and China are the two best destination for overseas investors to look at and this is the best time to invest in both the economies……
Ofcourse to find out the sectors and stocks for great , good and safe return one must have some experienced player who knows the Indian market since long and able to understand the economy.