Saturday, January 31, 2009

Why some people have all the luck ...............

I have been through this article from other site.I remember Haresh Soneji is a good writer and have read him in India.He writes something to think about.
I liked this article and analysis and hence I am pasting it here for all to read and also give views .......

Why some people have all the luck

I set out to examine luck, 10 years ago. Why are some people always in the right place at the right time, while others consistently experience ill fortune? I placed advertisements in national newspapers asking for people who felt consistently lucky or unlucky to contact me.
Hundreds of extraordinary men and women volunteered for my research and over the years, have been interviewed by me. I have monitored their lives and had them take part in experiments. The results reveal that although these people have almost no insight into the causes of their luck, their thoughts and behaviour are responsible for much of their good and bad fortune. Take the case of seemingly chance opportunities. Lucky people consistently encounter such opportunities, whereas unlucky people do not.
I carried out a simple experiment to discover whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot such opportunities. I gave both lucky and unlucky people a newspaper, and asked them to look through it and
tell me how many photographs were inside. I had secretly placed a large message halfway through the newspaper saying: 'Tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $50'.
This message took up half of the page and was written in type that was more than two inches high. It was staring everyone straight in the face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it and the lucky people tended to spot it.
Unlucky people are generally more tense than lucky people, and this anxiety disrupts their ability to notice the unexpected.
As a result, they miss opportunities because they are too focused on looking for something else. They go to parties intent on finding their perfect partner and so miss opportunities to make good friends. They look through newspapers determined to find certain types of job advertisements and miss other types of jobs.
Lucky people are more relaxed and open, and therefore see what is there rather than just what they are looking for. My research eventually revealed that lucky people generate good fortune via four principles.

1)They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities,
2)make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition,
3)create self-fulfilling prophesies via positive expectations, and
4)adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good.
I wondered towards the end of the work, whether these principles could be used to create good luck. I asked a group of volunteers to spend a month carrying out exercises designed to help them think and behave like a lucky person. Dramatic results! These exercises helped them spot chance opportunities, listen to their intuition, expect to be lucky, and be more resilient to bad luck. One month later, the volunteers returned and described what had happened. The results were dramatic: 80 per cent of people were now happier, more satisfied with their lives and, perhaps most important of all, luckier.
The lucky people had become even luckier and the unlucky had become lucky. Finally, i had found the elusive 'luck factor'. Here are four top tips for becoming lucky:
1) Listen to your gut instincts ^ they are normally right.
2) Be open to new experiences and breaking your normal routine.
3) Spend a few moments each day remembering things that went well.
4) Visualise yourself being lucky before an important meeting or telephone call.
Have a Lucky day and work for it.
The happiest people in the world are not those who have no problems, but those who learn to live with things that are less than perfect.
The author of `The Luck Factor' teaches at the University of Hertfordshire.
-- Best Regards, Haresh Soneji

END PIECE - CRY PLEDGE "Before anything else, I'm an Indian. And so is this little child. The rights I enjoy as a citizen of this free country are hers too. She has a right to be free. She has a right to be happy. But I'm going to fight for her because she has the right to be a child. I'm going to fight for her every single day, every single moment. With my skills. With my resources. With my heart. I'm going to fight for her because I can. And she can't."


My Comments:
I would only add here that "Anger takes away the clarity of thought.Never anger let take charge of you."
Clarity of thoughts is very very important for being successful......Try to think when you are angry.....

Monday, January 26, 2009

An Islam columnist on Jews - By: Dr Farrukh Saleem.............

There are only 14 million Jews in the world; seven million in the Americas, five million in Asia, two million in Europe and 100,000 in Africa.. For every single Jew in the world there are 100 Muslims. Yet, Jews are more than a hundred times more powerful than all the Muslims put together. Ever wondered why?
Jesus of Nazareth was Jewish. Albert Einstein, the most influential scientist of all time and TIME magazine's 'Person of the Century', was a Jew. Sigmund Freud -- id, ego, superego -- the father of psychoanalysis was a Jew. So were Karl Marx, Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman.

Here are a few other Jews whose intellectual output has enriched the whole humanity:

Benjamin Rubin gave humanity the vaccinating needle.

Jonas Salk developed the first polio vaccine.

AlBert Sabin developed the improved live polio vaccine.

Gertrude Elion gave us a leukemia fighting drug.

Baruch Blumberg developed the vaccination for Hepatitis B.

Paul Ehrlich discovered a treatment for syphilis (a sexually transmitted disease).

Elie Metchnikoff won a Nobel Prize in infectious diseases.

Bernard Katz won a Nobel Prize in neuromuscular transmission.

Andrew Schally won a Nobel in endocrinology (disorders of the endocrine system; diabetes, hyperthyroidism).

Aaron Beck founded Cognitive Therapy (psychotherapy to treat mental disorders, depression and phobias).

Gregory Pincus developed the first oral contraceptive pill..

George Wald won a Nobel for furthering our understanding of the human eye.

Stanley Cohen won a Nobel in embryology (study of embryos and their development).

Willem Kolff came up with the kidney dialysis machine.. Over the past 105 years, 14 million Jews have won 15-dozen Nobel. Prizes while only three Nobel Prizes have been won by 1.4 billion Muslims (other than Peace Prizes).

Why are Jews so powerful?

Stanley Mezor invented the first micro-processing chip.

Leo Szilard developed the first nuclear chain reactor;

Peter Schultz, optical fibre cable;

Charles Adler, traffic lights;

Benno Strauss, Stainless steel;

Isador Kisee, sound movies;

Emile Berliner, telephone microphone;

Charles Ginsburg, videotape recorder.

Famous financiers in the business world who belong to Jewish faith include Ralph Lauren (Polo), Levis Strauss (Levi's Jeans), Howard Schultz (Starbuck's), Sergey Brin (Google), Michael Dell (Dell Computers), Larry Ellison (Oracle), Donna Karan (DKNY), Irv Robbins (Baskins & Robbins) and Bill Rosenberg (Dunkin Donuts).

Richard Levin, President of Yale University, is a Jew. So are Henry Kissinger (American secretary of state), Alan Greenspan (Fed chairman under Reagan, Bush, Clinton and Bush), Joseph Lieberman, Madeleine Albright (American secretary of state), Casper Weinberger (American secretary of defense), Maxim Litvinov ( USSR foreign Minister), David Marshal ( Singapore 's first chief minister), Issac Isaacs (governor-general of Australia ), Benjamin Disraeli (British statesman and author), Yevgeny Primakov (Russian PM), Barry Goldwater, Jorge Sampaio (president of Portugal ), John Deutsch (CIA director), Herb Gray (Canadian deputy PM), Pierre Mendes (French PM), Michael Howard (British home secretary), Bruno Kreisky (chancellor of Austria) and Robert Rubin (American secretary of treasury).

In the media, famous Jews include Wolf Blitzer (CNN), Barbara Walters (ABC News), Eugene Meyer (Washington Post), Henry Grunwald (editor-in-chief Time), Katherine Graham (publisher of The Washington Post), Joseph Lelyyeld (Executive editor, The New York Times), and Max Frankel (New York Times).

Can you name the most beneficent philanthropist in the history of the world? The name is George Soros, a Jew, who has so far donated a colossal $4 billion most of which has gone as aid to scientists and universities around the world. Second to George Soros is Walter Annenberg, another Jew, who has built a hundred libraries by donating an estimated $2 billion.

At the Olympics, Mark Spitz set a record of sorts by wining seven gold medals. Lenny Krayzelburg is a three-time Olympic gold medalist. Spitz, Krayzelburg and Boris Becker are all Jewish.

Did you know that Harrison Ford, George Burns, Tony Curtis, Charles Bronson, Sandra Bullock, Billy Crystal, Woody Allen, Paul Newman, Peter Sellers, Dustin Hoffman, Michael Douglas, Ben Kingsley, Kirk Douglas, Goldie Hawn, Cary Grant, William Shatner, Jerry Lewis and Peter Falk are all Jewish?

As a matter of fact, Hollywood itself was founded by a Jew. Among directors and producers, Steven Spielberg, Mel Brooks, Oliver Stone, Aaron Spelling (Beverly Hills 90210), Neil Simon (The Odd Couple), Andrew Vaina (Rambo 1/2/3), Michael Man (Starsky and Hutch), Milos Forman (One flew over the Cuckoo's Nest), Douglas Fairbanks (The thief of Baghdad ) and Ivan Reitman (Ghostbusters) are all Jewish..

To be certain, Washington is the capital that matters and in Washington the lobby that matters is The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC.

Washington knows that if PM Ehud Olmert were to discover that the earth is flat, AIPAC will make the 109th Congress pass a resolution congratulating Olmert on his discovery.

William James Sidis, with an IQ of 250-300, is the brightest human who ever existed. Guess what faith did he belong to?

So, why are Jews so powerful? Answer: Education.

Why are Muslims so powerless? There are an estimated 1,476,233,470 Muslims on the face of the planet: one billion in Asia, 400 million in Africa, 44 million in Europe and six million in the Americas .. Every fifth human being is a Muslim; for every single Hindu there are two Muslims, for every Buddhist there are two Muslims and for every Jew there are one hundred Muslims.

Ever wondered why Muslims are so powerless?

Here is why: There are 57 member-countries of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC), and all of them put together have around 500 universities; one university for every three million Muslims. The United States has 5,758 universities and India has 8,407. In 2004, Shanghai Jiao Tong University compiled an 'Academic Ranking of World Universities' , and intriguingly, not one university from Muslim-majority states was in the top-500.

As per data collected by the UNDP, literacy in the Christian world stands at nearly 90 per cent and 15 Christian-majority states have a literacy rate of 100 per cent. A Muslim-majority state, as a sharp contrast, has an average literacy rate of around 40 per cent and there is no Muslim-majority state with a literacy rate of 100 percent. Some 98 per cent of the 'literates' in the Christian world had completed primary school, while less than 50 per cent of the 'literates' in the Muslim world did the same.

Around 40 per cent of the 'literates' in the Christian world attended university while no more than two per cent of the 'literates' in the Muslim world did the same.

Muslim-majority countries have 230 scientists per one million Muslims. The US has 4,000 scientists per million and Japan has 5,000 per million. In the entire Arab world, the total number of full-time researchers is 35,000 and there are only 50 technicians per one million Arabs (in the Christian world there are up to 1,000 technicians per one million). Furthermore, the Muslim world spends 0.2 per cent of its GDP on research and development, while the Christian world spends around five per cent of its GDP.

Conclusion:The Muslim world lacks the capacity to produce knowledge.

Daily newspapers per 1,000 people and number of book titles per million are two indicators of whether knowledge is being diffused in a society. In Pakistan , there are 23 daily newspapers per 1,000 Pakistanis while the same ratio in Singapore is 360. In the UK , the number of book titles per million stands at 2,000 while the same in Egypt is 20.

Conclusion: The Muslim world is failing to diffuse knowledge.

Exports of high technology products as a percentage of total exports are an important indicator of knowledge application. Pakistan 's export of high technology products as a percentage of total exports stands at one per cent. The same for Saudi Arabia is 0.3 per cent; Kuwait , Morocco , and Algeria are all at 0.3 per cent while Singapore is at 58 per cent.

Conclusion: The Muslim world is failing to apply knowledge.

Why are Muslims powerless? Because we aren't producing knowledge.

Why are Muslims powerless? Because we aren't diffusing knowledge.

Why are Muslims powerless? Because we aren't applying knowledge.

And, the future belongs to knowledge-based societies. Interestingly, the combined annual GDP of 57 OIC-countries is under $2 trillion. America, just by herself, produces goods and services worth $12 trillion; China $8 trillion, Japan $3.8 trillion and Germany $2.4 trillion (purchasing power parity basis).

Oil rich Saudi Arabia , UAE, Kuwait and Qatar collectively produce goods and services (mostly oil) worth $500 billion; Spain alone produces goods and services worth over $1 trillion, Catholic Poland $489 billion and Buddhist Thailand $545 billion. (Muslim GDP as a percentage of world GDP is fast declining).

So, why are Muslims so powerless? Answer: Lack of education.

All we do is shout to Allah the whole day and blame everyone else for our multiple failures .

Sunday, January 25, 2009

L&T increase stake from 4% to Satyam

I wrote about Satyam and that it is a great buy.
One of the reader name Vasanthy asked about what price it should be bought.
I gave her a detail answer and how I am coming to the conlcusion, why it is a great buy.But I am not seeing any feedback from her whether she read my comments or whether she bought or she just lost the chance.
My blog is like a friendly platform.One can write me and ask me if I do not reply and readers use to write me if they use to differ.Sometimes I do not use to get time and hence may not reply hence I request you all that do repeat your query and I will definately try to reply it.
But readers feedback is very important.If someone ask something and I reply to them and they don't revert back then I feel that the query was just a casual query and not a serious one.Someone just asked for the sake of asking.......
I wrote in that reply to Vasanthy that Mcap is so less that when we compare it with Infy, Wipro and TCS that Satyam makes a good buy.
I have also written many times that everyone should read my replies to anyone.One will always find something to read.....I hope everyone visiting my blog must be doing that.
Now that L&T has increased the stake from 4% to 12% and they bought arond 1.18 cr share at one go on 23 rd while averaging it at rs 35 but seems that they wants to come on to have a sit in the Satyam Board and what a chance God has given to Mr.Anilbhai Naik! and he seems to be the right guy to have Satyam.
When I wrote in comments it was 20 and now it is 38!Wow great run.
I categorically wrote here that Satyam can't be Zero as Mr.Shankar Sharma of First Global has predicted.Market never act on anyone whims.The day Bulls started dreaming that market is behaving as per we say ,we saw the Crash and now Bears are also thinking in same way.They feels that market is and now should react as we think and that means the end of Bear market.
I don't say that the bear market has ended and bull market has started as there will be consilidation inbetween that will take place.We can see some downside but seems that 7600 is the bottom and under no circumstances it should be broken.This may happen and may not happen.This is all my assumptions.
But as I have written here in past, I am still seeing a turnaround by the end of June qr .
I would like everyone to keep a tab on Crude prices.The day it goes over $60 then I think we should think that the demand has increased and that world economy is coming back to normal.
And hence this is also the best time to buy stocks like Selan Exploration, Alpha Geo, Aban LLyod,ShivVani Uni,Jindal Drilling , Dolphin Offshore,HOEC,etc.........
Oil is going to be the main wealth creator in future as the Oil wells are getting empty and world needs to find newer places where Oil can be obtained and hence the Seismic data co,Drilling co,Exploration co are bound to make good business and bound to earn great returns.....

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Satyam Saga.....there was no less margin...Raju diverted funds to Maytas and others cos.....

Ramalinga Raju admits to diverting Satyam money
21 Jan 2009, 1724 hrs IST, IANS

HYDERABAD: Disgraced founder and former chairman of Satyam Computer Services B. Ramalinga Raju has confessed that he diverted funds of the IT
company to the two real estate firms promoted by his family, state police sources said here on Wednesday. Raju, who was grilled Wednesday for the fourth day by officials of Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of Andhra Pradesh police, also reportedly admitted using the Satyam money to buy prime land in and around Hyderabad.
CID sources said Raju told interrogators funds were diverted during the past four to five years. This means Raju's Jan 7 statement that he inflated company accounts was a red herring. While resigning as company chairman, Raju had admitted to a Rs.70 billion (Rs.7,000 crore/$1.43 billion) accounting fraud, saying the company had cooked its books over several years resulting in inflated (non-existent) cash and bank balances. He reiterated this during CID interrogation soon after his arrest January 9.
But investigations have now revealed that a big chunk of this money existed but was diverted to other firms. CID, which took Raju, his brother and former managing director B. Rama Raju and former chief financial officer Vadlamani Srinivas in custody for four days following a court order, grilled the former Satyam boss on the basis of his confession. After prolonged interrogation, Raju finally admitted to diverting Satyam funds to his family firms — Maytas Properties and Maytas Infra. He told CID sleuths that this was going on since 2004. Raju not only diverted funds out of Satyam but is also believed to have misled company auditors PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) by submitting fake bank documents. CID and some regulatory agencies have already seized some documents from PwC. Raju also reportedly swindled money through 6,000 fake salary accounts for last few years. Sources said he had created these accounts in four banks to divert the funds from fixed deposits. Some of these funds were flowed through his accounts in foreign banks. The company's claims that it had 53,000 employees came under scrutiny after Raju's January 7 confession. The government-appointed board is also trying to ascertain these figures. With Raju confessing to diversion of funds, the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) and Registrar of Companies (RoC) are now trying to trace a Mauritius-based company used for channelising the money to Maytas. The central government has already asked SFIO to extend the ambit of investigations of Satyam fraud to cover both Maytas Properties and Maytas Infra. A team of SFIO is checking the accounts and records of the two firms. However, both the firms have denied that they received any funds from Satyam.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Morgan Stanley to store crude at sea ....hinting of things to come...?

Morgan Stanley to store crude at sea
Alaric Nightingale LONDON

MORGAN Stanley hired a supertanker to store crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico, joining Citigroup Inc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc in trying to profit from higher prices later in the year, two shipbrokers said. The ship is the Argenta, capable of carrying more than 2 million barrels, Paris-based Barry Rogliano Salles and Athens-based Optima Shipbrokers said in reports. Morgan Stanley officials in London didn’t immediately reply to three phone messages seeking comment. Banks and c o m m o d i t y traders are seeking new ways to make money after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell by the most since 1937 last year and crude oil prices dropped more than $100 a barrel from their peak. Companies including Koch Industries Inc and BP Plc are hoarding enough crude at sea to supply the world for almost a day. “It’s a window of opportunity that won’t last long,” Gareth Lewis-Davies, a London-based energy analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Group, said by phone. There may only be four or five banks with the expertise to make the trade, he said. Frontline Ltd, the world’s biggest owner of supertankers, said January 14 about 80 million barrels of crude oil are being stored in tankers, the most in 20 years. A purchaser could buy oil now, keep it for months at sea and fetch better prices by selling futures that are higher than the spot price. The so-called contango pricing structure in oil has been caused by excess supply as demand slows and speculation that output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce the glut later this year. The easiest types of oil to buy for the trade are likely to be either West Texas Intermediate or the North Sea grades Brent, Forties, Oseberg or Ekofisk. That’s because they are the ones used to settle the mosttraded futures contracts. Other oils, such as those from the Middle East and Africa, are usually bought and sold at prices related to the main European and U.S. grades. Because those prices fluctuate, it means traders assume an extra risk by hoarding them. Phibro LLC, Citigroup’s commodities trading unit, has the 1 million-barrel carrier Ice Transporter stationed off north Scotland and also hired the supertanker Ashna to store. Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, booked two supertankers. — Bloomberg

Well, While going through the ET today I read this news and was thinking what is written is true then it is obvious that the demand in Oil is going to get increased in later part of the year and that means USA economy should be showing some good nos in second half of this year .
Now if the Oil demand increases once again it also says that the comsumption has increased and that means world economy is coming back to normal.
Crude prices are at where they were in 2003 and so is inflation.While thinking what has happened in 6 months that crude has gone down from a high of $147 to $33 and what happened suddenly to the financial sector that all banks and financial insti like CITI, Lehman, Bear Stern,Merill Lynch ,BOA,Freedie Mae and Freedie Mac the most two trusted mortagage entity of US government went down.
How can such things happens?Is it a ploy to swallow money of overseas countries invested in big financial US co written above?
How come the Oil demand come so less that the prices fall to $33?Is that possible?
Well, I am in USA since last Feb and have started seeing the first debacle that happened of Bear Stern...and then it is a each and every big financial house got broked.
I am seeing no problem whatsoever with people here.They are just fine and there is no panic.Cars are running on the road as usual .They are just seen when I landed here.And that is the trick .The Gas prices has come down so much as low as $1.47 /gl which was $4.69/gl just 4-5 months back that people do not feel the pinch for driving a car for whatever reason they need to drive.I don't think any country hass decreased the prices of Gas/petrol prices as much as USA can/has done and that is where the trick is.The prices get decreased with the crude prices going down which do not happen with rest of the world.
I would like to know from my blog readers if any country use to decrease the Petrol/gas prices as much as USA do....
But looking at the above news it seems that second half we are going to see a turnaround in US ecocnomy.US economy is worth 25% of world GDP and if US economy makes a good turn around then we can see crude coming back to $60-70 by end of the year or early next year.
I again rewrite that I may prove wrong in all my assumptions as they are after all guessings and one can go totally wrong

One Offtopic talk:
Regarding Kashmir, when Kashmir is an integral part of India and while our army is there at the border then why the hell we need to talk with Pakistan for Kashmir.There is no issue for Kashmir if only there can be talk on Kashmir then it should be only of Pakistan occupied Kashmir(POK) which was taken away by Pakistan in 1965.I do not know how that happened and how that much part is with Pakistan but that is rediculous that some part of Kashmir is with pakistan and we called as POK as they are supposed to be not the owner.The Kashmir that is under Indiasovernity why we need to talk about that with Pakistan?I don't understand the whole issue?If Kashmir is with Pakistan then why the hell Indian army is there?And if Kashmir is with India then why the hell we need to talk with Pakistan?
Can any politician answer me this question?

Monday, January 12, 2009

Full text of Raju's letter to the Satyam Board................

I have read somewhere this Letter but forget the site name.Authencity is unknown but reading it seems good and hence I am pasting it here.

From B. Ramalinga RajuChairman,

Satyam Computer Servcies Ltd

Dear Board Members,
It is with deep regret, and tremendous burden that I am carrying on my conscience, that I would like to bring the following facts to your notice:

1. The balance sheet carries as of September 30, 2008.

a) Inflated (non-existent) cash and bank balance of Rs 5,040 crore (as against Rs 5361 crore reflected in the books).

b) An accrued interest of Rs 376 crore which is non-existent.

c) An understated liability of Rs 1,230 crore on account of funds arranged by me.

d) An over stated debtor position of Rs 490 crore (as against Rs 2651 reflected in the books)

2. For the September quarter (Q2) we reported a revenue of Rs 2,700 crore and an operating margin of Rs 649 crore (24 per cent of revenues) as against the actual revenues of Rs 2,112 crore and an actual operating margin of Rs 61 crore (3 per cent of revenue). This has resulted in artificial cash and bank balances going up by Rs 588 crore in Q2 alone.

The gap in the balance sheet has arisen purely on account of inflated profits over a period of last several years (limited only to Satyam standalone, books of subsidiaries reflecting true performance). What started as a marginal gap between actual operating profit and the one reflected in the books of accounts continued to grow over the years. It has attained unmanageable proportions as the size of the company operations grew significantly (annualized revenue run rate of Rs 11,276 crore in the September quarter, 2008 and official reserves of Rs 8.392 crore). The differential in the real profits and the one reflected in the books was further accentuated by the fact that the company had to carry additional resources and assets to justify higher level of operations thereby significantly increasing the costs.

Every attempt made to eliminate the gap failed. As the promoters held a small percentage of equity, the concern was the poor performance would result in a takeover, thereby exposing the gap. It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten.

The aborted Maytas acquisition deal was the last attempt to fill the fictitious assets with real ones. Maytas investors were convinced that this is a good divestment opportunity and a strategic fit. Once Satyams problem was solved, it was hoped that Maytas payments can be delayed. But that was not to be. What followed in the last several days is common knowledge.

I would like the board to know:

1. That neither myself, not the Managing Director(including our spouses) sold any shares in the last eight years-excepting for a small proportion declared and sold for philanthropic purposes.

2. That in the last two years a net amount of Rs 1,230 crore was arranged to Satyam (not reflected in the books of Satyam) to keep the operations going by resorting to pledging all the promoter shares and raising funds from know sources by giving all kinds of assurances (Statement enclosed, only to the members of the board). Significant dividend payments, acquisitions, capital expenditure to provide for growth did not help matters. Every attempt was made to keep the wheel moving and to ensure prompt payment of salaries to the associates. The last straw was the selling of most of the pledged share by the lenders on account of margin triggers.

3. That neither me, nor the Managing Director took even one rupee/dollar from the company and have not benefited in financial terms on account of the inflated results.

4. None of the board members, past or present, had any knowledge of the situation in which the company is placed. Even business leaders and senior executives in the company, such as Ram Mynampati, Subu D T R Anand, Kesab Panda, Virender Agarwal, A S Murthy, Hari T, S V Krishnan, Vijay Prasad, Manish Mehta, Murali V, Sriram Papani, Kiran Kavale, Joe Lagioia. Ravindra Penu Metsa, Jayaraman and Prabhakar Gupta are unaware of the real situation as against the books of accounts. None of my or managing directors immediate or extended family members has any ideas about these issues.

Having put the facts before you, I leave it to the wisdom of the board to take the matters forward. However, I am also taking the liberty to recommend the following steps:

1) A task force has been formed in the last few days to address the situation arising out of the failed Maytas acquisition attempt. This consists of some of the most accomplished leaders of Satyam: Subu D, T R Anand, Keshab Panda and Virender Aggarwal, representing business functions, and A.S.Murthy, Hari T and Murali V representing support functions. I suggest that Ram Mynampati be made the Chairman of this task force to immediately address some of the operational matters on hand. Ram can also act as an interim CEO reporting to the board.

2) Merrill Lynch can be entrusted with the task of quickly exploring some merger opportunities.

3) You may have a restatement of accounts prepared by auditors in light of the facts that I have placed before you.

I have promoted and have been associated with Satyam for well over twenty years now. I have seen it grow from few people to 53,000 people, with 185 Fortune 500 companies as customers and operations in 66 countries. Satyam has an excellent leadership and competency base at all levels. I sincerely apologize to all Satyamites and stakeholders who have made Satyam a special organization, for the current situation. I am confident they will stand by the company in this hour of crisis.

In light of the above, I fervently appeal to the board to hold together to take some important steps. Mt T R Prasad is well placed to mobalize support from the government at this crucial time. With the hope that members of the Task Force and the financila advisor, Merrill Lynch (now Bank of America) will stand by the company at this crucial hour, I am marking copies of this statement to them as well.

Under the circumustances, I am tendering my resignation as the chairman of Satyam and shall continue in this position only till such time the current board is expanded. My contribution is just to ensure enhancement of the board over the next several days or as early as possible.

I am now prepared to subject myself to the laws of the land and fact the consequences thereof.(B. Ramalinga Raju)Copied marked to:1) SEBI Chairman2) Stock Exchanges

My Comments:
Reading the text what I findout is ,seems that ,maybe there can be inflated cash shown and other credits in BS .Maybe the Revenue is inflated but reading it seems like that it is inflated by just around 10% and with 185 ,Fortune 500 ,clients then we can't doubt about the work Satyam was giving. That was going for past decade and none of the clients ever cancelled the orders or terminated them abruptly.That speaks for Satyam work and service.....There should be some Value for the goodwill they have created while completing the job.
Maybe the margin was very less just at 3% and hence not enough for 53000 employees to get paid.Raju pledge his shares to pay for the employees.But the orders and clients were not fake and hence I feel that Satyam can be a very very good takeover by L&T or by Government.Deepak Parekh given the leadership is hinting what I was writing.Government may takeover this no 4 Software export co.........
But I think not all is lost for Satyam as our beloved Bear Mr Shankar Sharma spoke out that Satyam can be Zero.I feel that with good corporate governance Satyam can be brought back ontrack........and that too quicker then anyone can imagine.

Satyam case is not like Lehman br or Bear Stern or Citi or Merill Lych.It has clients and they have not lost money.The margins were poor.Why they were poor needs to be analysed.Either they erred in recruiting more employees then wanted as written by Bhargav and they needs to be trimed down so Satyam can come back to normal and try to increase the margins and do whatever is needed....But am sure this is not a scandal.Something was going wrong somewhere which Raju was not also able to understand.


Saturday, January 10, 2009

Sataym Saga............

I have written very small post on Satyam when asked for my comments and many must have frustrated while reading it that it was too small .But let me tell you that I didn't go full flow about how market will react.
But when I am seeing that market has not showed a great concern on next day and still remained above 9k it shows that market has discounted this bad news and now we need to see how market reacts next week.But when there is no big reaction the very next day it means that we should do well next week as well.
Ofcourse , the results of Dec qr which are due can take toll but Infy moving up shows that market has taken satyam news as an isolated misgovernance and has not taken it in totality for the whole sector.
I hope that that should be the case and we see a stabilization after Satyam issue comes to the fore.

Thursday, January 8, 2009

I have been asked to comment on Satyam Issue.
Well here is what I think.
The debacle has done more bad to Satyam itself.The stocks may still fall.I am also learning that L&T subsidiary has invested in Satyam and hence L&T also may get battered today or next week as news gets out.
I donno know but how FII's shows the courage to critisize Indian Cos when they have messed up the whole American system.
I just got a mail showing CLSA that how much Indian cos will get affected due to the Auditers who are also auditing other cos.Instead of looking at their house which is burning terribly they comes here to give expert view.
The Auditers is none other then a foriegn co named Pricewater Cooper!
They have given some 15 stocks list which are said to be Audited by Pricewater Cooper house!Is this standard of USA co.This is how they audited?
I donno but CLSA itself must be headdrown in this mess or in USA.No one is knowing what is with CLSA.Hence howmuch to rely on CLSA report or any forieng Insti is a question.
But one thing is clear and that is, even A gr cos are no good when we use to questions the management of Cash gr cos.This vindicates my view that there is nothing like good or bad management.It all depends on how cos pans out.
Well, reagarding market I think there can be some more down side but by next week we should be back to normal.This is my thinking and I may prove wrong.......

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

I wrote last time that I would be giving a list which can fetch great returns in couple of years.
I am writing it now because I feel if I willbe late in writing then it can be late.
Here is the list which almost includes stocks which I have discussed earlier.Some stocks may not be included but then I may not remember all and it may be like it becomes so long.....I am trying to make as much exhaustive as possible....
Name CMP
1)XL Tele - 58
2)Gremach Infra - 30
3)Sujana Towers -24
4)India Glycols -72
5)Vishnu Chem -26
6)Nagpur Power -24
7)Genus Overseas -124
8)Kirlos Ferro -16
9)Jayaswal Neco -13
10)Jyoti Ltd -37
11)SKS Logistic -15
12)Emmson Int -74
13)Transgene Bio -24
14)Twilitika Pharma -38
15)PSL Ltd -92
16)Madhucon Pro -100
17)Patel Eng -190
18)Ahluwalia Const -34
19)Aptech Ltd -101
20)MRO Tek -33
21)Navin Flourine -138
22)KLG Systel -109
23)JaiHind Project -45
24)Sarda Energy -75
25)Goldstone Infra -20
26)Selan Explo -146
27)Sahyadri Ind -26
28)Ramsarup Ind -35
29)Satvahan Ispat -24
30)Dolphin Offshore-176

The list is long I told you and still go longer as the valuations have come down so much that everything seems to be a value buy.
I may prove wrong in my view and stocks selections and hence I urge all readers to do due diligence and then invest.But remember what I wrote last time.Have a Capital Market magazine with you and try to see these stocks in Score's BV,EPS,Sales,Promoters stake etc etc...this will give you confidence....
Our market ended 300 points up and closed above 10k.The earning seasons starts now and need to see how it pans out.Most probably the results are going to be disappointment and that is the general market consesus and just a better then expected result in any individual stocks, can act as a catalyst to that perticular stock.Hence be on alert.Keep opening the bse site everyday and keep seeing the results.Read ET and BS and see how the results are coming.
As I have written most probably after June qr the results will start showing good signs and hence this maybe the last quater that we may see valuation so down.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Good Sign?

Steel offtake rises 30-40% on higher demand

Ambarish Mukherjee

New Delhi, Jan. 3 Through the grey of Delhis foggy skies a little ray of hope appears to be shining on one of Asias largest steel markets the Loha Mandi in Naraina. Traders are looking much happier now than they were during Diwali because offtake has increased by 30-40 per cent since mid-November.
They attribute it to a significant and sudden rise in demand for long structural products, which has gone up by around 30-40 per cent. But prices have come down from an average of Rs 48,000-49,000 a tonne in August to around Rs 32,000-33,000 a tonne now.
Demand for flat steel, too, is growing but at a lower pace of 5-10 per cent, traders said.
The Naraina Loha Mandi houses around 1,000 shops that sell every possible steel product, from heavy plates to the thinnest wires.
According to the traders, the pattern of growth is different for the long and flat products. For long products the growth is from new demand, while for flat items it is a combination of new demand and import replacement after the Government put HR steel on the restricted list of items for import on November 21 last year.
A trader in long products, Mr Gurucharan Arora, said, Sales have picked up in the past two months and now reaching normal levels. Explaining the reason, he said, The builders who had put their projects on hold have started buying.
Officials in the countrys largest steel manufacturing company Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) also agree. Demand for long products has increased by around 15 per cent in the last few weeks, mainly on Government buying. If things continue the same way, the market may stabilise by January end or February, SAIL sources said.
There are still many uncertainties which is holding back latent demand, but the import duty on construction steel imposed on January 2 will increase demand further, he said.


However, despite sales picking up traders are cautious. The President, Naraina Iron & Steel Merchants Welfare Association, Mr Raj Kumar Jain, said, Traders are avoiding holding ready stocks and are mostly lifting on transaction basis. Though demand is picking up, many traders have strong liquidity problems. Stocks are down by 50-60 per cent compared to the peak levels in July/August 2008.


Interestingly, however, though the actual physical amount of steel sold is increasing, it is not reflected in the official volume figures because the steel market is down.
According to Mr Jain, this is because when the market is up, the same stock changes hand several times before reaching the consumer with three to four people making money out of the entire chain of transactions. At each stage it gets recorded as sales and the sum goes up, he explained. But in the present scenario, middlemen have fled the market and only the actual users are buying. These are real volumes, he said.

The likely beneficiaries of the second stimulus package .......

The likely beneficiaries of the second stimulus package

Chennai, Jan. 3 If the Cenvat concession and interest rate cuts of the first stimulus aimed at trimming costs for India Inc as a whole, the second one singles out select sectors for its munificence.
It promises lower borrowing costs for large infrastructure companies through the ECB route and paves the way for financial closure of stalled projects. It also offers incentives for commercial vehicle makers and the logistics sector, while raising the barriers of protection for cement makers. Here is a listing of possible beneficiaries.

Freeing up funds

For the infrastructure sector, moves such as the removal of the ECB ceiling, aggressive rate cuts and greater borrowing powers to IIFCL may infuse liquidity and temper the cost to borrowing. It may also speed up financial closure for infrastructure projects that are struggling to achieve financial closure. Players such as Larsen & Toubro, Hindustan Construction and Maytas Infrastructures, key bidders in road projects, may be the possible beneficiaries.

While the CRR cut will lower the cost of funds for banks, the package also takes care to open up additional avenues for fund-raising by NBFCs. NBFCs engaged in infrastructure funding such as IDFC, REC and Power Finance Corporation, as also those that lend to the transport sector, may be able to obtain easier access to funds.

On the real estate front, the most significant incentive is the green signal given to realty developers to raise ECBs for developing integrated townships; a ban on raising funds for such townships was imposed in May 2007. DLF, Ansal Properties & Infrastructure and Parsvnath Developers that have plans in this direction may reap the benefits of this move.

Spillover for logistics

The focus on funding for road and port projects may also have spillover gains for the logistics sector, which has been grappling with dwindling volumes at the ports. Potential beneficiaries would be companies in the container rail space such as Container Corporation of India and Gateway Distriparks, besides players such as Allcargo Global, Sical Logistics and Mundra Port and SEZ. The sector may benefit from the easing of pre-shipment and post-shipment credit norms. The EXIM Bank has obtained a Rs 5000-crore line of credit from the RBI to provide credit to domestic exporters at competitive rates.

Inventory relief for CVs

Commercial vehicle makers have been dogged by steadily sliding sales and an inventory pile-up in recent months. The latest stimulus package tries to address this by offering an accelerated depreciation of 50 per cent for commercial vehicles purchased up to March 31, 2009. While availability of financing for purchases will hold the key to actually reviving vehicle demand, the accelerated depreciation benefits may push buyers to expedite purchase decisions.

This could help clear inventories for CV makers such as Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors and Escorts. The financing problem has been addressed by asking PSU banks to provide a line of credit to NBFCs (such as Sundaram Finance and Shriram Finance) for the purchase of commercial vehicles.
The Government has raised the barriers of protection for the domestic cement industry and allowed greater pricing power, by re-imposing countervailing duty (CVD) and Special CVD on cement imports.
Though the volume of imports has not been very large after the scrapping of import duty last year, cement players in the surplus northern region have been threatened by the shipments from Pakistan. Ambuja Cements, ACC, Shree Cement and JK Lakshmi Cement may be possible beneficiaries from this move.

Saturday, January 3, 2009

I think the time has come to buy stocks in staggered manner.I am seeing almost all the stock prices in Cash gr has come to almost 90% and hence chances of going down from there is maybe 10-15%.
Well, I am seeing the market breadth is becoming positive and that shows that some buying is coming from HNI's etc.Market breadth positive means stocks moving up are more then going down and I am marking since many days that this is happening.That is a sign of market bottoming out.Though it is early to say whether we will see the bottom of 7500 again or not because USA economy is still bleeding and what comes out there no one can say.
But I thought it is time for bargain hunting and one should buy whatever one thinks like buying.There an ocean of stocks with great fundamentals and available at throw away price and many we have discussed here.They are just available at 1/10 of high...what else one want....!
I am sure in next 2-4 months people will say that this share was available at 20 and I didn't buy and I lost the chance or this was a great co and I was knowing that this is going to run and was available at 50 and I missed it.
Friends,I have written many times here that buy even 100 shares of anystock.No one knows which one is going to give multibagger returns.So if a multibagger return is going to come then even 100 shares will do wonders.
I have often said that keep Capital Market Magazine handy.Look at the BV,EPS,sales, Macp and buy.
These are golden chances that comes in a life time.Stocks like Sujana Towers has come down from 200 to 20 with co still making an eps of over 20,Gremach Infra down from 550 to 28 which is 5% of the high and earning etc etc.....
The list is long. will write it next time but I think this is time to buy.
Try to look at stocks refering Capital Market Magazine.I have been able to find multibagger stocks from reading the scoreboard of CM and hence suggest all of you to do the same.
I may be wrong in my analysis once again and hence due prudence is neccessary to buy anything....