Thursday, August 25, 2011

Supreme 72...My old call....@Rs.27...revisiting again....

I gave a call on Supreme Petro at Rs 27, in Dec 2009.
See the link:

I discussed all fundamentals at that time which one can be able to read when you open it.

If someone has bought it at that time at 27, the price now is 72 means the figures has got alternated , means instead of 2 , 7 has come in front and that is even when all midcaps and small caps are heavily battered down hugely.
I still recomend to buy this stock for 3 yrs .I am seeing great value here still at this price.The expansion and collobartion Supreme Petro has done has still to come out and then the bottomline will go up in big way.It is still giving 166% return from my call and way up to go.
After making a bottom around Rs 55 in May 2011 this year , it is on upper movement.That is the strenght Supreme Petro is showing.Supreme Petro is above the 200 DMA and is coming from a wellknown Taparia Gr and hence nothing to worry on management front.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Rico Auto and Super Spinning........

First of all let me write that I am thankful to all those readers who has kept faith in me and I am indebted by them.
I remember I recomended Rico Auto and Super Spinning time and again though I have not discussed Super Spinning in detail but I have discussed Rico Auto in details why it was a buy at around 23.
Rico Auto has come down from 23 -24 level to abysmal low level of 10 and so has Super Spinning.
Now what I am going to disclose today is a name of a very veteran investor and a very excellent investor who can wait for his stocks to go up for 5 yrs and even more.I adore him for his investing style and he is a master and a chela of then master investor named Manu Manek.
He has a penchant for cement stocks like Madras Cement and also have a liking for Auto Ancialliary Co like Motherson Sumi , Rane gr and also have a liking for Laxmi gr .He was a Co-owner of brokerage gr before it was sold recently.
I would like all my readers to look at SHP of both this Co and one should be able to read his name and I hope someone come out with his name and write it here.
It is all about observing and nothing else.It is my passion and hence I devote my entire focus on what is going on in market and who is playing with what stocks.I can say it is all at my tip of my fingure.
With commodities going down and Oil going down,Rico Auto will give excellent return in LT,like say, 3-5 yrs from now.Rico Auto has been beaten down for a long time due to earning not coming good but happy days should come for both Super Spinning and Rico Auto .Both the stocks can take time and even test your patience but hold it.Don;t look at everyday price after buying.
Both are fundamentally excellent Cos and both should flourish in time to come.I can't say when but both will give excellent returns.Well, I can't guarentee you , but I am confident for both.
Well, as I said earlier, I can't gaurantee you anything but I hope this is a good chance to lappup stocks like this when chips are down...........

Saturday, August 20, 2011

An Apology...

I am feeling very very bad that all stocks are going down and more and more bad news are coming on the market and that is taking toll on smallcaps and midcaps.
All the stocks recomended here by me are coming down and down and readers are feeling the pinch of it and I too am feeling the pinch as well.No one likes to see wealth getting distructed and PF showing RED daily and I am also one of them.
I have seen recently that many of my calls has gone abysmaly low and taking out more then 50% of the buying price.Friends remember one thing, what I am doing here is looking at the sector, reading the annoucement, reading the sales, reading any buybacks annoucement etc etc and give a call here.
No way I can able to talk with management or visit a Co plant and then give a call.You all know what I analyse and how I analyse and give a call and when chips are down the stock keeps on going down and down.
One of the analyst has written in recently that Sujana Towers is a SELL as there is nothing in the Co.Allied Digital is a SELL as there is nothing in the Co and the CBI raid has happened and hence don't buy them but actually SELL them.
He maybe right he may be wrong.That is why I always write that please do the Due Diligence before buying.
Whenever the market will take turn , it will be first the large caps that will move and then the midcaps and smallcaps and it is going to take time for Mid/Small cap to move.
I have tried my best to discuss and analyse stocks and then put it here but still I had gone wrong in many of my picks in huge way.I have gone wrong also in big way in predicting the course of the market as well.
I feel bad that my picks are going down and down and I have no answer when readers ask me about it what to do.Sometimes I feel that I need to stop writing here as many of the subjects I write on here has become controversial.I donno, how long I will be able to write here if world market and Indian market is going to behave like these then I think there will be nothing more for me to write.
I know I have a caption at the top of my blog which says that DD is a must and I am not responsible for anything , but I still take the moral responsibilty in the sense that if when my readers are losing money , I can't come out and say ruthlessly that I am not responsible for anything.
I know time will come and market will make a comeback but when I see wealth deteriorating of my readers I too feel dejected.I would like to see each and every readers of my blog making something from market.

Friday, August 19, 2011

LOKPAL OR JOKEPAL Bill by Congress

I got some inner sight of Lokpal Bill that Congress drafted and I have taken it from somewhere else so please double check it and write it here if it wrong.

1. A whislteblower will have to PROVE that what he claims is correct in court of law. The entire onus of proving what he says is correct lies on him.

2. If his charges - reports are found to be false - he will face JAIL TERM of 20 YEARs

 3. If his charges are true the culprit will be jailed for "WHOLE 2 YEARS"
See - how they are encouraging whistleblowers and discouraging criminals.

A person who will not be able to prove the charge will go to jail for 20 yrs and who is found guilty will go to jail for ONLY 2 YEARS?That is the Lokpal version Congress wants to bring in parliament and pass it?Is this a JOKEPAL bill or what?
I was hearing one of the spoke person of Congress speaking about Anna Hazare that how he can speak against corruption when he himself is a corrupt person? I ask, then for what the Congress is waiting for?If Anna Hazare is corrupt then why don't government held him under that charge and put him in JAIL?
I have been hearing the debates on TimesNow and the people who speaks against Anna Hazare says that this is a democratic country and Anna Hazare can't dictate the term to the government, which is elected by people and everything should be under Law.But my question is, what is done under Law ?If Law prevails then how culprits like Kalamadi and A Raja were arrested so late?
Is government working under any LAW or Constitution?
It is not working under LAW and that is why the movement by Anna Hazare..........
If any politicians are abiding according to the LAW, where was the need for Anna Hazare to come out to fight against government?But as there is no LAW prevailing in our country , especially for Politicians that is why Anna Hazare has to come out ......It is that SIMPLE.......
People of India needs to tell the government , that PLEASE DON'T TALK OF ANY LAW......THERE IS NO LAW PREVAILING IN INDIA.....
If Law prevails then how 2G, 3G, S-Band  and Karnataka mining scam came out?
Which law Congress is talking of?Is there any law in our country?Over and above that there is no Laws for politicians.They keeps on saying we were elected by the people and hence they can do whatever they wants   and still they can go untouched and people can say nothing and do nothing besides looking at it helplessly.........because people made the MISTAKE OF ELECTING THEM......LOL......Congress says to the people of India.....Keep QUITE....we are elected by YOU and hence you the people of India needs to abide by the LAW and CONSTITUTION AND if we the elected people do anything wrong we, the people of India, are not suppose to do anything..........and if we , the people of India, wants to do anything that should be under LAW!

Congress feels that as people has elected them they can do whatever they can under the name of Law and Constitution but why the same Law and Constitution do not apply for Politicians?
What needs to be done is , after putting the Scansters in jail , government needs to see that the money also comes back to the people.....that is the most important part of the movement.It is not only about sending the culprits to JAIL but also making SURE THAT MONEY SHIPONED OUT FROM SCAMS ARE BROUGHT BACK TO THE PEOPLE OF INDIA.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Anna Hazare is back.....

I have been viewing the Indian Channel and going through all those debates that are taking place regarding the movement against corruption.
Today here in morning , means in evening in India I saw HM, Mr Chidambaram giving lectures on section 144 and 103 and then 106 etc etc in parliament and what are the rules and what are the meaning of it.
I don't understand why there is a debate on section 144, 103, 106 in parliament.
This is a crusade against CORRUPTION.This movement is as important as the FREEDOM movement our Father Of Nation Gandhiji started against Britishers.
Gandhiji broke the Laws to get the FREEDOM for India and that is what Annaji is doing then why there is so much of debates on section 144?Let government do what they wants to do.They want ot arrest Annaji.Let them do that.With each arrest and each day the awakening will increase.
The movement starts from breaking the LAW.If the law is not broken how the movement will go further?I mean to say, if the government is not listening to what needs to be done after repeated calls and still they do not listen then breaking the LAWS becomes the only alternative.

When Annaji first went for fast in April and UPA decided to bring in the Lokpal Bill in the next parliament session, Annaji said at that time , that if government will not includes certain rules, he will fight again in August.At that time, UPA government should have understood that after 4 months the euphoria will die down and Anna Hazare will not be able to do anything which he did in April and let me tell you here that I was also not sure whether Annaji will again come out to fight for the Lokpal Bill.I was apprehensive about the movement again getting started as that is a herculein task to start a work once stopped but Annaji, I must salute you for coming back and taking the fight to NEXT LEVEL.

I from here join with Annaji  for this fight against corruption.Long Live Anna Hazare.Keep it up.We are with you and whole India is with you and I wish more and more people join this movement and fail all the attempts of government to make this Jan Lokpal Bill just a paper bill.
This is not the dictatorship of Anna Hazare but it is actually the dictatorship of government who wants to make the Jan Lokpal bill a farce.They wants to make  the bill such that it has no legs and many loopholes so that politicians can get away with it easily and that is what Annaji is trying to make sure that the culprit needs to be puinished and send to jail.

The scams in last year were of ,I can say horrible type.No scam were less then Rs 30,000-40,000 cr and the anamoly was such that none of the politicians were ASHAMED  of their wrong doing.Government do not wants to do anything with those money lying in Swiss Bank and I have got a mail, where  Wikileaks is showing ,what the politicians and scamsters has got in Swiss Bank.These money are so huge that it matches with the figure that came from other sources.
Coming back to Annaji's crusade , I must say that the support was spontaneous and huge and I wish the tempo do not dies down so easily untill the GOAL is achieved.

Actually there is no FEAR in any politicians and that is the real culprit.The fear of doing wrong and getting punishment will do a whole load of good.The corruption has spread to such a level that the time was ripe for someone to come out and fight for it and that was done by a retired soldier named Anna Hazare and I am not at all amazed by that because only a fighter can do it.Annaji has fought many battles at the front and hence he has got the spirit to take fight in enemies camp.He knows exactly what his GOAL is and how he is  going to do it.He is very clear in his mind what he is upto and how he will take the battle to the next level.

This is a FIGHT .Let everyone understand this.This is a FIGHT for the being.This is the fight for living hassle free life.This is a fight for the existance.This is the fight for the Future Generation.This is the fight for India's PRIDE WORLD OVER.Make no mistake.This is a Crusade.This is the crusade for the poor people of India.This is the fight for people who are deprived from the right to have Food, Water and a house.Those so called middleclass people who has good salary and DA which keeps on rising with infaltion do not feel the PINCH but those poor people who lives on daily wages are the real sufferors.It is a pity that the same middle class has gone through this tormoils of life and still they do not understand the situtaion of poor people.

Let me take an example.Middle class person who do a JOB either a government JOB or Bank Job or working in a MNC or any Indian Co , they gets CL, PL, SL, and over and above that Vacation leave with pay.The salary increases with the DA as inflation goes up then increment comes every year and may be BONUS .Are these people ready to raise the salary of their servants working at their house?Do they give any weekly OFF for 1 day as we get every Sunday?Do they give paid SL or CL or PL to their servants?Are servants not human being?They are also not working for you and do work when you are not at home?How many pay for the illness of servants working at their house?
We buy big house from smaller one.We buy cars from scooters.I know, we justify saying , we have got the education and we have worked hard for that.Agreed you worked hard but you got the oppertunity to do that.One living in a hut, zoopadpatti , where their parents use to quarrel every night, father a drunkard, in such a situation how one will be able to do anything.
I am not saying , one need to give eveything to the servants but we need to understand their position.I have some people saying , if we give money to them they will drink and waste it.I ask, don't we do it that way?
Have a big heart.Do something for those who are working for you at home as servants.Help their children for education.Help them for illness.This will give you big satisfaction.Inner satisfaction which you will never be able to find while buying Cars , or A/C's etc......just do it and see what happens to your innerself.You will feel peace of mind.
If you are in good state of LIFE then you are a GOD CHOSEN CHILD  and hence the onus on you becomes more to help those poor people who are not that much fortunate.God has chosen you and gave you more then others and had put faith in you that you will help who is not so fortunate as you are.But we miss that oppertunity and become so shallow that we feel that it is we who has got all success by ourselves.But that is a grave mistake we do.We think of ourselves only and our family.Sometime it is ONLY US and not even our family.
Anyway, coming back to the movment, this movement is equally important for India as was before  1947.
I wish all luck and if India is going to be a corruption FREE country then I wish Anna stays there to see that it is done perfectly.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Don't buy anything now.....

That is what I would suggest as of now.Don't buy anything now.
I know readers wants to have my view in present sitution and that is why I am here to write that let market settle down first because when stocks start going down there is no bottom and people are selling to save whatever money they can save and hence if a stock is available cheap now it can drift further more.
I already wrote in my last post that things are dicy in global context and as FII's are selling, market is not going to come back in hurry as rightly said by RJ in his last interview.
I am sure this is not a 2008 type situation but still I can go horribly wrong.
If the stocks you are holding are good with fundamentals then hold them.It will run when its time will come.Don't panic.Selling in panic makes no sense.One invariably make mistakes in such situation.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

S&P downgrades US rating.............

I know my readers are eagerly awaiting my view on recent downgrade of US from AAA to AA+.
I was not writing not because I was shocked by the carnage in local as well as Int market.Actually I was not doing good with my ownself and when I have no mood to write I don't write for the sake of writing.
The downgarde rating by S&P has craeted a havoc in US market and in the world all over.
I was just listening to the President of S&P, Deven Sharma, who  had an interview on CNBC here and what reason he was giving for the downgrade.
The main concerns he was pointing out was, the Internal Debt of USA was not going to come down by 2014 or by 2020.According to the projection made by US herself, the Debt will rise to $14.3 tr from $10 tr in 2014 and in 2020 it will be $20 tr which will be double from hereon.
So even after the US decided to take steps to trim down the expenses the Debt will keep on rising.
What other thing I was able to gather while watching the CNBC is the spending of US FED.
Here are the statistic.

Function -yr 2011 +yr
Total Spending$6.2 trillion
Pensions$1.0 trillion
Health Care$1.1 trillion
Education$0.9 trillion
Defense$1.0 trillion
Welfare$0.7 trillion

Here is one more news on Health Care spending.

"All health care spending in the United States is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 5.8 percent for the period 2010 through 2020, 1.1 percentage points faster than expected growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2020, health care spending is projected to be 19.8 percent of GDP, nearly one-fifth of economic output, increasing from 17.6 percent in 2010. All health care spending will reach $4.64 trillion in 2020, nearly half of which will come from government sources."

So here again my analysis come to work.Prez needs to look at the Medical spending.That was my first concern for the high spending.
$1 tr for Medical care for Senior Citizen is too high for any Country which is 18% of the total spending.I don't want to cut down the medical treatment for Senior Citizen , but I want the expenses , the cost to get trimmed down.
In my last post I gave examples how much is the cost for treatment for surgery of Knee operation or bypassurgery and for even taking care of a small Abscess.
The US has to look at this futures of Medical Treatment that is dearing the US $1 tr everyyear now and by 2020 it will be $4 tr which is 400% more then now in 10 yrs down the line.
So if we compare the amount of  Medical expenses even now at $1 tr , it is as big as Indian Economy.
No way a country can come to reduce the expenses without trimming down the Medical cost which is eating 20% of the budget.
US will have to break the vicious circle of the Medical System.That is the only way the debt will reduce in future.
Like I said in last post, even 50% of the cost is taken care of, though it is still on higher side it will make a huge difference in government spending.That is the only region US can do something.Break the Medical chain.
$92,000 for a Knee surgery! Wow! I can't believe that.
Well, Deven Sharma was saying that by downgrading the credit of US , it doesn't say , US will default.It is just saying about the risk.
If Insurance Cos are making huge profit then it is obvious that they are paying less and getting more.It is a simple maths and when Co is making huge profit it means the profit is coming from where the margin is BIG.
I feel that if the Health cost comes down in US then naturally the health Insurance will also cost less and hence if the premium is less more people can afford to go for it and that way health Insurance Co can make up with the loss of premium.
I am confident that US has the ability to take care of such debts and they will take measures to do it.The players or market has reacted more negatively on the rating and I feel that there need not to panic.Heaven is not going to fall on earth with the downgrade.This is not a 2008 type situation.
That is my view and I may go wrong but that is what I am seeing.I am not seeing the repeat of 2008 as of now.Retail participation is at low , there is no over leaverage, the return in equites in US is higher then the bonds.These all take me to conclude that this was just a reaction of downgarde of S&P which I feel is overtly done.
I know, many there in India do not like my taking side of US but when I have to write on global economy and market then I have to write on US as well.Jab US ko zukam hota hai sari duniya to sardi ho jati hai.If US gets cold the whole world gets cold.........One can never ignore US...we like it or not.......US comsumes 33% of world production.If US falls everything falls.

I don't think CHINA will ever be able to take place of US in World.

But in the end, after reading the datas, I will write that my calculation come out correct that Medical Bill is the biggest spender of US Budget and that needs to taken care of.

DON'T PANIC................This downgrade do not say that US has defaulted nor it says that US will become  bankrupt next year....

I agree that the situation on the horizen is not favourable.The Europe crisis is also looming large on global growth.The higher interest rate in India is denting growth of our economy.Tonnes of grains is lying idle in goddowns.The real reason is the supply is less and demand ios more and in that circumstances the govrenment needs to unleash the grains locked in the goddown but instead of doing that RBI keeps on increasing the Repo rate .This is going to hinder the growth and hence we are seeing the GDP projection going down from 8 to 7.5 .
There will be huge downside today in morning .Market should open with a big gap down as Dow has been down by over 600 points which is the higest points after Lehman Brs debacle.
The strategy one can follow is either one needs to be on sidelines and observe from the fence or sell now and buy at lower levels.
The retail participation is almost NIL and the stocks are going down on a low Vol as there are no buyers and when there are no buyers the prices tends to go down.
It may take 3 to 6 months for market to stabilize as domestically also we are cornered by all type of problem like Corruptions and scams.

Actually the downgrading from S&P should be taken positively by USA.Ofcourse S&P has made wrong assessment in 2007/2008 for Finance Co giving AAA rating and thereby creating the biggest meltdown of housing crisis in US but then looks like S&P has learned something from it as the reason given for the downgrade by Deven Sharma, the president of S&P on CNBC is very good to understand.
Prez should not get disturb by such things but actually work on it.If the Debt is going to rise from $10 tr now to $14 tr in 2014 and $20 tr by 2020 then that is not a good things for any country.So what S&P is saying is that the plan passed by the seneta is not good enough to bring down the deficit to normal level as it will keep on rising.
I heard Obama coming on TV to say that whatever downgrade any rating agency gives, US will remain AAA all the time.It was looking like Obama was hurt and so was Fin sec of state.
But when one look at the reason given by S&P, the deficit is not coming down but actually going up even after the measure to be taken decided , then that is a emergency call for Washington.The downgrade says that don't be satisfied by the outcome.You have not done enough for the deficit.
I keep on adding things here but as things come up to my mind I have to write it down for my readers.When my mind reads and after that thinks on it and what comes up is the analysis of the things I was reading or hearing.
Warren Buffet , the astute investor also didn't like the downgrade.He said, S&P should not forget that US has got the printing press and hence they can print as much dollars as they want.
That was a statement not given as a Economist but as an investor.
Whole world knows that WB has stake in Insurance Cos from Autos to Medical /healthcare Insurance and naturally he do not want the Medical treatment expenses to cut down otherwise the biggest pie of the profit will come down in his invesment Co.
Being a veteran investor, how he is not able to understand that printing dollars will make the dollar value down and the inflation will go up.
Warren Buffet is not concerned about the HIGH COST OF MEDICAL TREATMENT , he says we can print the money but the high profit margin that comes for the Insurance Co should remain as it is.
Friends, that is why in India also DII like LIC is always making huge profit.Insurance Co makes huge profit and the margin keeps on increasing with more people going for Insurance policy.The catch here is, how much LIC or for that matter any Insurance Co has to pay for Health Care of Life Insutrance policy.
Very negligible and  the rest premium goes as profit.Try to recall any person who went for LIC Life Insurance policy and how many person died before maturity and how much LIC has to pay before maturity of policy.
It is negligible.But these Insurance Agents will tell you all sorts of reason to buy the policy and we keep on paying premium for whole life and what comes in our hand is peanuts of return.
Though now some policies has shown good return and the main reason the salaried people buy these policy is, the Tax benifit.If they buy LIC Policy they have to pay less Tax .Otherwise there are other source of invesment that will give better returns then LIC.