Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Investment storys still alive..............

Investment storys still alive

Anumber of commentators expect investments to slow down sharply in 2009-10. The IMF, in its report released on April 22, projects asteep fall in the growth of the Indian economy from 9 per cent in 2008 to 4.5 per cent in 2009. The slowdown is primarily a result of weaker investment, according to the Fund. Earlier, the World Bank, while commenting on South Asian countries said, Capital flows have diminished, contributing to fall off in investment growth, notably in India. And, the Asian Development Bank in its Asian Development Outlook 2009 had the following to say, Substantial excess capacity in domestic industry and limited export demand are damping investment prospects. The RBIs Annual Policy Statement 2009-10 released on April 21 states, While domestic financing conditions have improved, external financing conditions are expected to remain tight. Private investment demand is, therefore, expected to remain subdued. The Business Confidence Index of the National Council of Applied Economic Research registered a sharp fall in January 2009 and the RBIs Industrial Outlook Survey also reflected a fall in business expectations. These reflect asentiment that fits well with the forecasts of the agencies predicting a slowdown in investments in 2009-10.
CMIEs CapEx database provides a completely different picture of the trends in investments. The CapEx database tracks the announcement and implementation of individual investment projects till their completion or abandonment. It derives aggregates from these to draw inferences regarding trends in investments. The CapEx aggregates are thus based on direct observation of investment projects and are not derived from the usual macroeconomic accounting framework.
The CapEx database shows no signs of India Inc slowing the pace of announcing new investment projects or the pace at which they complete their projects. Save for a minor pause during October-December 2008, the investments juggernaut has continued uninterrupted. But, because of the global liquidity crisis and the domestic disruptions caused consequently, there is also an increase in the number of projects getting shelved. This increase in the shelving of projects is attracting the attention of the commentators. In the larger scheme of things, these shelving of projects are not significant.
In the second-half of 2008-09, projects involving investments worth Rs 1,19,205 crore were commissioned. This is larger than the Rs 90,686 crore worth of projects that got commissioned in the first half of the year. Record new capacities were created in 2008-09. At Rs 210,000 crore, these were higher than the Rs 182,000 crore and Rs 137,000 crore worth of investments commissioned in 2007-08 and 2006-07, respectively.
Investments have been on a roll recently. The CapEx database suggests that the momentum continues into 200910. Over a thousand projects, involving a total investment of Rs 490,000 crore, are scheduled to be commissioned in 2009-10. This is more than twice the project completions witnessed in 2008-09. Around 40 per cent of these investments are concentrated in just the top 40 projects. Twenty seven of these, that accounted for investments worth Rs 136,000 crore, confirmed to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) in late March or early April, that their projects would get commissioned during 2009-10. Implementation of seven projects involving investments worth Rs 30,655 crore is already delayed and the projects will not get commissioned in 2009-10. Responses from the remaining six projects were not available.
The CapEx database provides project-by-project details of the implementation. Thus, the evidence of the investment boom continuing is very strong. The problem is that there is equally strong evidence of projects that were announced earlier being cancelled. Given the severity and pervasiveness of the global liquidity crisis, it was expected that entrepreneurs would be a lot more cautious in investing into new capacities, even in India. The CapEx database quantifies this caution.
Projects worth Rs 9,455 crore were shelved during the second half of 200809. During the quarter-ended March 2009, projects worth Rs 64,179 crore were shelved. This was more than twice the investments that got commissioned during the same quarter (Rs 31,966 crore). It is very likely that the information regarding delays will also be available with alag. Companies did not immediately announce the shelving of projects after the global liquidity crisis struck in October 2008. They waited for a while before they were willing to admit publicly that their projects would have to be shelved.
It is also likely that the projects shelved could have reached higher levels than is reflected in the CapEx database. Often, the decision to shelve a project is never clear. It could be a temporary deferment till the times improve. Besides, it is easier to cancel a project that is in the nascent stages of implementation than it is to cancel a project that is at an advanced stage. Nearly 40 per cent of the projects that are scheduled to be commissioned in 2009-10 could not provide any information in recent months. These accounted for only 30 per cent of the total investments in value.
While a number of projects have been cancelled or deferred, implementation of investments of a much larger value is well on its way to completion in 2009-10. The global liquidity crisis was, in fact, aboon in disguise. The investment boom that was gathering momentum since 2004 was possibly getting a bit irrational, particularly in the real estate development sector. Thanks to the global liquidity crisis, this has been corrected. The remaining projects have been re-evaluated in the light of the difficult economic environment. The data shows that India Inc votes to continue to invest. Indias investment juggernaut therefore continues, having shed some of its less viable projects.
The CapEx database provides one more interesting metric of trends in investments. This is the announcement of new investment projects. These new intentions reflect the investment sentiment. A fall in new investment projects is the first sign of entrepreneurs becoming cautious. We had expected a fall in new announcements during the quarter ended March 2009. However, we are surprised by the record Rs 790,000 crore of new investment projects that were announced in the quarter.
The spike in new investments partly reflects an unusual rise in investment proposals from Gujarat because of the Vibrant Gujarat Investors Summit 2009. Announcements made at such political summits are often tentative intentions rather than clear proposals to invest. But, even if we exclude all the new investments announced in Gujarat during January to March 2009 (a sum of Rs 350,000 crore), the new investments during the period are impressively high. At Rs 430,000 crore, they are higher than the proposals made in the previous quarter and also in the same quarter a year ago.
Even after we net out Gujarat from the last quarter, new investments have continued to roll in at the rate of over Rs 400,000 crore per quarter and largerthan-ever investment projects are getting completed in the current year. Sure, companies did face greater difficulty in organising finances for investments, but that did not stop them from going ahead with their capex plans. Macroeconomists and the countrys statistical machinery need to take into consideration the evidence on capex seriously. Icontinue to believe that the economy is doing quite well. We just need to measure it correctly.
The author is Managing Director and CEO, CMIE mahesh@cmie.com

Monday, April 27, 2009

India prepares for shift to gas-based economy..........

India prepares for shift to gas-based economy
RANJU SARKAR New Delhi, 26 April

*In a few years, households receiving piped gas at home can use a fuel cell unit to produce power and heat, which can also be used to chill homes during summer. The fuel cell unit also produces hydrogen, which can be stored and used to run a motorcycle.
*Residents of an apartment or a colony can come together to buy a micro gas engine or agas turbine that can power an entire apartment, office complex or industrial estate.
*Once gas is available in a large number of cities, city buses could switch over to compressed natural gas (CNG) as would many private cars. Malls, offices, hospitals and restaurants could be directly chilled by gas, using vapour absorption chillers.
Welcome to India’s new gas economy. As gas supply increases and distribution infrastructure (cross-country pipelines and piped gas in cities) falls in place, India will transit from an oil-based economy to a gas-based one, says former head of the Directorate of Hydrocarbons, Avinash Chandra. He estimates that India will find at least 200 trillion cubic feet of gas (tcf) from the country’s east coast alone.
Reliance Industries, which has started producing gas from its D6 block on the east coast, will produce 40 million cubic metres per day or 235,230 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) a day by July, and double this by end-2009. This will take care of the deficit, as there’s demand for 200 million cubic metres per day of gas (1.2 million BOE per day) against available supplies of 110 million cubic metres per day (647,432 BOE per day).
Two other companies, GSPC and ONGC, which also struck gas on the east coast, will bring in an additional 40 million cubic metres per day by 2012. In India, the fertiliser and power sectors account for 80 per cent of the demand for gas, which will continue. But as gas supplies increase, supply to other sectors like refining, petrochemicals, steel, industrial and city gas distribution (CGD) will increase substantially.
There is a large unmet demand for power in India which will promote the use of gas for distributed generation (like DG sets we see in office blocks). But gas engines can be costly: a micro turbine costs around Rs 8 crore per mega watt. “Everyone need not buy a turbine. An industrial estate or a business district can do so,’’ says an expert. `Need not’ would read `cannot’ or `should not’ at these prices, even for business districts. Price, as we shall see, is key, and we’re still waiting for technology innovation.
New gas-based applications are being developed. “The development of fuel cells can meet the total energy requirement of ahousehold through generation of power, hydrogen and hot water from gas,’’ says PMS Prasad, President & CEO (petroleum), Reliance Industries. Efforts are on to drive down the cost of fuel cells. Similarly, there’s huge potential to use gas as CNG, which is cheaper and cleaner than liquid fuels.
A network of pipelines is emerging in the country. Reliance has laid the East-West pipeline, which connects to the HBJ and other regional networks. GAIL is expanding the HBJ network to the north and east. Next, Reliance and GAIL will lay pipelines in the south and along the east coast. Thus, India will have a quadrilateral of pipelines, all interconnected; a pipeline grid will further spur investments upstream.
Similarly, piped gas would be available in many cities soon and the government plans to issue licences for 74 Indian cities in phases. Once the city gas networks come up, gas could be sold to any new industrial unit, malls, offices, vehicles or homes. Deepak Mahurkar, associate director, PricewaterhouseCoopers, though feels it would take two-and-half years for a new city to get gas but existing city gas networks can expand much earlier.
Equipment makers are warming to the opportunity. Maruti Suzuki will launch CNG variants for three or four of its car models by 2010 or 2011. Many cars in Delhi and Mumbai already run on CNG. Tata Motors will soon launch CNG variants for trucks and Tata Magic, the passenger vehicle built on the Tata Ace platform. Its buses and small and light commercial vehicles are already available in CNG variants.
In Mumbai, geysers are available which run on gas. Thermax and Voltas make gasfired vapour absorption chillers, used in malls, restaurants, theatres and offices. The smallest of these is of 15 tonnes of refrigeration (TR), which can cool an area of 1,900-2,000 sq ft. The initial costs of Rs 12-13 lakh for a15 TR will be a deterrent, but it does cut operational energy costs by half.
Which brings us back to cost and pricing. Pinaki Bhaduri, head of strategy, Thermax, says the demand for gas will be a function of its price. ‘‘If gas is priced at Rs 22 a kg, power generation doesn’t make sense. It makes sense if the price is Rs 7-8 per kg. That will be a key driver for the growth of India’s gas economy.”
Expanding supply and gas piped directly to consumers is happening at an unprecedented scale, breaking many old moulds.

My Comments:
I have talked about Gas Pipe lines and Gas based usage in Indian Economy.Some stocks I have highlighted in RED letter I have already mentioned here in past.

Infra and Realty will be the growth Driver of Indian Economy........

Economy growth driver from now onwards would be Infra and Realty.
I have written in past here that some $10 bn road projects are to be given to construction co and hence I gave some infra stocks as well at that time.
I have mentioned Marg Ltd 2-3 times along with IVRCL,Simplex,HCC,etc.
Well,$10 bn means Rs 50,000 cr and just read somewhere that AP is building water management system and will be spending Rs 1 lacs cr .Only if we add these two the total project cost becomes Rs 1,50,000 cr and I think that is enough stimulous for our economy to grow again at 9%.
There are many more such sectors to come that includes Port buliding, Thermal Power, Gas based Power,Nuclear Power(Areva, Alsthom, Seimens,L&T etc) which will come into play in coming years.
I have even mentioned Torrent Power in a list.This is a very wellknown gr and hence one can take exposer without any hesitation.I will like to have a special mention on my old favourite Navin Flourine where the Carbon Credit story is still intact and it will again come to the fore once the market starts a decisive upmove.I think Navin is going very cheap.
But Power , Infra, Realty these are the sectors that will turnaround our economy and will become a catalyst to bring back the past glory of 9% GDP.
The credit crisis is easing in US and the turnaround has come earlier then expected by many analyst including me.
Well, I may prove wrong in this prediction and actually I am writing this post with lots of hesitation that I may prove wrong as has happened through out last year.
But one thing is sure and that is as much as the Sensex will take time of remaining above the bottom made in Oct 08, it will be good for the market ofcourse for Bulls and not bears.
Since last 5-6 weeks market has been able to remain above 10k and that is a good sign for Bulls and as I wrote this bear market rally can and is getting converted in a new Bull Phase.....

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Mavi Invt & Elpro Int.......

I am taking back my recomendation call on Elpro Int as I have found that Mavi Invt is a fake entity and that it belongs to someone who got caught in dubious trading.
Though Elpro Int has good products I would not recomend now as a Buy Call...........due to the coming out of some news which is not good for the company either.....

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Elpro Int....cmp 272.85........A Multibagger in making.....

I remember I gave a call at mmb and maybe at ISG way back before Jan 08 at below 100.I do not remember the exact rate.
Well, as I was going through the annoucement at bse today I read this annoucement:

"Elpro International Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on April 20, 2009, inter alia, has converted the 35000 Convertible warrants of Mavi Investment Fund Ltd into 35000 number of Equity Shares of Rs 10/- (Rupees Ten Only) each at a premium of Rs 601/- (Rupees Six Hundred and One only) and shall rank pari passu to the existing shares of the Company."

I am tracking this company since long .
Well, I am here writing what is the company is in :

Read On:

Elpro International Limited was incorporated in July 1962 as a public limited company, in technical and financial collaboration with General Electric, USA. The Company�s corporate headquarters are located in Pune, 170 km from India�s financial capital � Mumbai, and its multi-manufacturing facilities are based out of Pune and Hyderabad.
An ISO 9001-2000 company, Elpro International is the number one manufacturer of Surge Arresters in Asia manufactured with technical know how from GE USA. It is the only manufacturer outside the United States manufacturing Surge Arresters and Zinc Oxide Discs with GE technology � acknowledged to be the best in the world.Elpro�s constant adherence to Excellence in Quality and Expertise in Marketing has ensured a reliable brand image and a dominant market share in each of its product lines in India. It is the first company to introduce & produce Surge Arresters as well as Metal Oxide Gapless Surge Arresters in India. Elpro won the ELCINA award in the �Research & Development� category in 1987and its products have been successfully type tested in renowned laboratories like CESI - Italy, KEMA - Netherlands and CPRI � India. Elpro International is the only manufacturer outside the US that meets IEC as well as ANSI standards.

Laurels Along the Way
The first to introduce & produce Surge Arresters and Metal Oxide Gapless Surge Arresters in India.
The only manufacturer outside the United States manufacturing Surge Arresters and Zinc Oxide Discs with GE technology acknowledged to be the best in the world
ELCINA award for excellence in the development of high quality electronic components
One of the few manufacturers, globally, whose Surge Arresters comply to both IEC and ANSI standards.
Elpro International set up a metal oxide varistor manufacturing plant in its Pune facility in 1986 with technical expertise from GE. To enhance its capabilities further, Elpro acquired a Disconnecting Switch (Isolators) manufacturing company in 1994, Switchgear Manufacturing Company, which was set up in Hyderabad via a technical collaboration with ALPHA Switzerland.Today, Elpro has a presence in international markets including USA, Mexico, Brazil, Columbia, Peru, Italy, France, Turkey, Russia, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea.As part of its corporate vision to emerge as the leader in surge arresters, Elpro International acquired the Zinc Oxide Disc (active elements of surge arresters) manufacturing line from M/s Harris, Ireland in 2001 and the same was installed in the company�s Pune facilities in the year 2002.M/s. Harris and Elpro, both use GE�s technical expertise. As a result, the two companies share great synergy, which has translated in speedy absorption of technology and processes. At full operation the plant has an annual capacity to process 300 tonnes of Zinc Oxide Powder. With this new facility, Elpro has a combined annual capacity to produce 450 tonnes of Zinc Oxide Discs, making the Company the leading manufacturer and supplier of Zinc Oxide Discs in Asia.Elpro continues to be on the fast track to growth with a strong focus on developing niche products and strategic acquisitions in existing, or new-product areas, with potential for global marketing. Some of Elpro�s national clients include

ABB India;
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL);
National Thermal Power Corporation of India (NTPC);
Reliance Industries;
Siemens India;
Tata Power Company

and international clients include
KWPA Iran;
Saudi Electric Company and Taiwan Power Company.

Elpro International is committed to leading the "next generation" for superior protection of system equipments.

I think after reading this there remains no doubt in my mind that Elpro Int is a multibagger in making.Mavi Invt has converted Warrents at Rs 601 while the prevailing price is still Rs 272....because they know that if they will go and buy these 35,000 shares from the market , they will not get at Rs272 and it will go beyond 600......

Well ,85% is held by promoters and corp bodies.Only 15% is with pucbic with a very small eq of 3.9 cr means 39 lacs shares , with a very small buying it can flare up.
The performance of Elpro is not good since last many qr but the conversion of warrents at much above the CMP is hint for the things to come..........
As usual I may prove wrong.This is my analysis .Do due diligence before buying it......

Monday, April 20, 2009

US Stock...GE ..Looking extremly good....giving a buy call at $11.40....

Economy Difficult, but Signs of Firming Seen: GE CEO

The economy is still difficult, but we’re seeing some signs of firming, General Electric CEO Jeff Immelt told CNBC in an interview.
"I think that while the economy is still difficult, we’re starting to firm," said Immelt. "We’re starting to see that the sequential appliance orders are firming, we’re starting to see some signs that businesses are ready to invest again. I think in certain ways, companies have to make their own rallies right now…I think as we get more confidence in the system, we have to pull our ways out of this.”
GE posted better-than-expected quarterly profit last Friday, as a strong performance at its large energy operation offset declines at the GE Capital finance and NBC Universal units.
“Financial services was tough as expected, but we still made money,” said Immelt. “Some of the shorter cycles like advertising on NBC are still in a difficult phase. [But] I was quite encouraged in our infrastructure orders and how our infrastructure businesses did.

The CEO of GE has spoken on CNBC that economy is firming.They have given good profits as well.
It is one of the oldest co in lighting and electricals.More over Warren Buffet has also taken stake and that too at $24 around and it is almost less then half the price from there.
With stimulous pacakage of Obama , I think GE is going to be a wealth creator in coming years.
One can easily get 100% return in couple of years and that is a great return by USA standard....

TRF story........

I was having a chat with one of my friend who also use to give intra day calls and also an astrologer.
He told me that he made money and lost as well in this bullrun.But the ultimate result was he has no profit in hand.He lost all profit in this bear run.I remember I told him to buy TRF(Old name ,Tata Robin Fraser) at around 160 and TRF went on to touch 4 figure mark.I also remember that I also wrote about TRF at mmb and also at ISG at yahoo gr at that time ,which is run by Kukku . I told him that time that just hold TRF and I remember I gave him the 4 figure target as well but he sold on small rise and then TRF went up and up.But when the real time to make a killing in TRF came ,he was holding no shares.That is the position one needs to avoid.

Well, I again told him to buy TRF yesterday but he says he bought but sold for profit booking.He bought at 225 and sold at just a profit of 25 and now it is 338! Now he says I can't buy as it is 100% up.I told him buy even at this rate.
I told him it is still a buy.Buy it.But he told me it is already up.
Now that is what I am upto.What I want to tell here is from 225 to 338 is no runup.It is still down from over 1000 ,to be exact 1222 ,it's 52 week high and should be more as in Jan 08 .But people thinks that it has already runup hence it is not the time to buy but that is a wrong way of thinking.Stocks like L&T, Seimens, ABB, Areva T&D , TRF , Thermax etc these are evergreen shares.They can be bought in this bear market even if they have run 100% from the low as they are still way below their highs.
Now coming on profit booking ,what my friends use to do was to sell all shares.Profit booking is selling 10% to 25% and holding rest.But the mistake investors make is selling everything , i.e. 100%.That is not called profit booking.That is a sellout and that is due to panic or say greed.When investor feels that if he do not sell , the stock may still go further down and he may miss the opportunity.But that is a wrong way of thinking.Profit booking is always in part.After selling if it goes down more then one can always sell more if one wants to but don't sell anything in one go.
Now I don't think I need to tell my readers that TRF is still a buy even at 338.Ofcourse it is a buy at this price as well just like Seimens, ABB, Areva,Thermax etc..........
I have many such examples where people have read my view and still not been able to capitalize on it.That is destiny.I can show you stocks but I can't do trades on behalf of you.
Let me again write here that me too is a very small investor and have limited money to invest and hence miss opportunity many a times.Even I feel like buying stocks I like, in tons but can't in this bear market.
I too am feeling letdown but can't help.There is an ocean of stocks which I feel like buying.The valuation I am seeing are just too mouth watering.A rare pehnomenone one gets in a life time and if Sensex is to touch 1,00,000 then what price one can see of these stocks , one have to just imagine.......
Milkfood Ltd is another example where I gave a call on ISG,MMB and other forum at just Rs 40 and it gave 10 bagger return.It touched 400.Even now it is quoting at Rs 285.Now those who must have bought and I know many has bought , but those holding still now is still in a HUGE profit.
Friends there are many examples like such.I normally do not boast of my success like others use do.I use to underplay my cards.I always believe that it is my readers who needs to decide how I am and how my pick wroks.

Would like to add here that one of the wellknown fundamental analsyt has come out with a buy report on Marg Construction.This vindicates my call on Marg Construction.I gave a call at mmb and other places at Rs 40 .....before Jan 08...may be a year back from there.....It has again come back to that level.....

I also again recomend to buy or track PSL Ltd.PSL CMP is just 88 and according to me this is a bargian buy.One will not get a co who has Rs 6000 cr order at this price. A profit making co with very bright future.......

Saturday, April 18, 2009

India's Current Account Likely to go Surplus ......

India Panel: Current Account Likely Surplus

NEW DELHI -- India's current account is likely to swing to a surplus in the financial year that started April 1 as low crude oil prices shrink import bill, the chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, an independent think tank, said Monday.
"The subsidy bill will be much less. Goods and service taxes and scope to raise resources through disinvestments will limit the government's need to borrow more than aimed," Suresh Tendulkar told Dow Jones Newswires.
He expects the current account to return to surplus in the quarter beginning October and remain positive for the financial year.
India's current account deficit for the last October-December quarter expanded to $14.64 billion - the widest in nearly two decades - from $4.53 billion a year earlier.
Also, the capital account balance turned negative for the first time in more than a decade with a deficit of $3.24 billion for the period - compared with a surplus of $31.27 billion a year earlier - due to net outflows under portfolio investment, banking capital and short-term trade credit.
Subsidy to state-run refiners for selling fuel at discounted prices was a major burden for the government in the financial year ended March 31, when crude oil prices had risen to record levels. India imports about 70% of its oil requirements.
"With the economy reviving around September-October, there will be a pick up in foreign investments and the Reserve Bank of India is likely to maintain a loose monetary policy until then," Mr. Tendulkar said.
He doesn't expect the central bank to cut its short-term lending rate - the repurchase rate- or the borrowing rate - the reverse repo rate - at its April 21 annual policy meeting. Instead, it will take measures to help transmit effects of earlier rate cuts into the economy as "liquidity remains ample," Mr. Tendulkar added.
The RBI has cut both the repo rate and the proportion of deposits commercial banks must set aside as cash by 4 percentage points since early October to 5.00%. The reverse repo rate has been lowered by 2.5 percentage points over the same period to 3.50%.
Mr. Tendulkar also ruled out the possibility of India overshooting its borrowing target in this financial year and risking further widening of the budgetary gap.
The government had in its February interim budget estimated to borrow 3.62 trillion rupees ($72.69 billion) in the current financial year, higher than the revised 3.06 trillion rupees target for the last financial year.
India's fiscal deficit ballooned to an estimated 6% of gross domestic product in the last financial year and is forecast at 5.5% for the current financial year.
The doubling of fiscal gap follows last financial year's high subsidy bill and several fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Power Sector...........

I have written some A gr stocks here when someone asked me to write them.
My first 4-5 stocks were in Power Sector.I am bullishn on this sector and hence I wrote them.Buy these stocks to gain multiple returns in 2 to 5 yrs.
ABB,Areva T&D, Seimens, Alsthom Pro these stocks will give enormous return.Buy stocks in cash gr like Eimco Elecon, Elecon Eng,RTS Power, IMP Power etc and they will also give multibagger return.Keep a watch on Hydel Power projects co like JP Hydro,Patel Eng and with Gas going to be a major player ,India will need pipelines for moving the gas from one state to other and hence I recomended PSL Ltd last time.
Anyone wants to ask for my old recomendation need to ask about that.I have made some wrong calls as well and I think the worst call I made was of Alleid Computer.That was a rank bad call.
But other then that like SKS Logistic,Religare Techno ,Kirlos Ferro,Jyoti Ltd,Innocorp Ltd,Jayaswal Neco etc etc will give great returns......They are fundamentally good stocks and have been hit due to bear phase.......
Even some penny stocks that I wrote can come out as a big winner.
See which one is going to be next 20 or 50 bagger no one knows .What we need to do is try to find them early and buy when no one is buying......and when one buy them early then the gestation period become long as untill people realise the true potential of that stock it do not runs.

I now also wants to make a special mention on EssDee Alu.Those who are fond of good management co and with great fundamentals then one can go for EssDee Alu.
The difference between EssDee Alu and Parekh Alu is like difference between a developed country like America and underdeveloped country like India.Make the choice....both are in same sector...
I am giving here a dark horse........I can say that ,challange that no one can find this stock in any site.......or by any masters who boast of giving great and unknown stock.....
Indo Castle Multimedia......cmp is just Rs 7.But buy this as if you have lost money.If the stock performs as I am seeing it , it will give great returns.......
I have never boast of anything about my picks which gave multibaggers returns.Even in this bad market Shayadri Ltd and Kwality were making new highs.
The only thing I would tell is maybe for some time it looks that my picks are not running with the market but when they start running it goes in circuits.......
So don't become disheartened when my picks do not run......
And last, I suggest all my readers to buy and see ET todayy's paper in which on 3rd page you can see almost a half a page Ad of Marg Construction......Marg Karaikal Port is a subsidiary of Marg Const......and see how big projects its sub use to take........

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Jhunjhunwala, India’s Buffett, Says Avoid Market Post Election

I am pasting this interview of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.......courtesy my friend......

Jhunjhunwala, India’s Buffett, Says Avoid Market Post Election
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By Pooja Thakur
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, ranked a billionaire by Forbes magazine last year for his holdings of Indian stocks, says investors should avoid the markets after nationwide elections until a new government is formed.
Voters go to the polls today in a five-stage election across the world’s biggest democracy before counting begins on May 16. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index plunged 11 percent on May 17, 2004, the most in more than a decade, as investors feared a government formed by Sonia Gandhi’s Congress Party and communist allies would slow the pace of reforms.
“My advice is to stay away from the markets between May 16 and May 30 as there will be volatility in the markets post elections,” Jhunjhunwala, 48, said in an interview in his Mumbai office yesterday.
The markets more than tripled since 2004, before dropping 52 percent last year after a global credit crisis wiped out more than $30 trillion from the value of global equities.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance is competing with the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance and a group of communist and regional parties known as the third front.
“It’s a very closely fought election,” Jhunjhunwala said. “It’s a triangular contest and to predict the result would be very difficult.”
Jhunjhunwala said even though some forecasters are predicting a third front-led government, he expects either the Congress or the BJP will get 150 to 170 seats and will lead formation of the government. About 714 million voters are eligible to elect 543 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha, or lower house of parliament.
Bear Market Rally?
Indian stocks, laggards among the world’s biggest emerging- market economies in the first quarter, recovered to post the steepest returns the past month as investors snapped up the cheapest shares in 13 years.
The benchmark index, also known as the Sensex, climbed 38 percent since falling to its lowest level this year on March 9. The advance beat increases among equity benchmark indexes for Brazil, Russia and China, the biggest developing economies.
“The pace, breadth and volume of the market suggest this could be more than a bear market rally,” said Jhunjhunwala,( that is what I have said here in last past 2-3 post) who has pictures of investors including Warren Buffett on the walls of his Mumbai office.
Buffett of India
Forbes named Jhunjhunwala the Buffett of India after he turned a $100 investment into $1 billion over two decades. He predicted Indian stocks would fall two months before the Sensex peaked in January 2008, and the benchmark measure has gained 17 percent since his Dec. 11 prediction of a bull run. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1 percent during that time.
The Sensex has crossed its 200-day moving average and if it remains above that level over the next 10 to 15 days, the rally may be sustained, he said. Still, he doesn’t see the markets forming new lows. The moving average is a technical tool used by some analysts to predict the direction of the market.
Investments by Indian insurance companies will be the biggest drivers of the equity market, Jhunjhunwala said. Insurers could invest about $50 billion a year in the next two- three years, he said.
“The scope for disappointment is not much,” Jhunjhunwala said. “There are no positive expectations from the election results. Markets may not tank this time round even if the result is something that the market may not like.”
For Related News and Information:
To contact the reporter on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at pthakur@bloomberg.net;

Market up by 550 points.........

My heading is confusing.....? Isn't it?
But if one looks at the 248 points down in initial stage then 300 plus points gives 550 points rally.
People and analyst has started saying that they are seeing madness in the market.
Market just rallied from 8000 to 11200 and they are seeing madness.Wow ! what a analysis?When market went down and down constantly for 12 months without giving any reaction , which in normal course market should give, no one said that this is sheer madness.Then why people and analyst are saying in such a small runup that this is Madness?
Well, Intel has given over expectated profit.Goldman has come upwith good numbers.Housing sector is showing sign of turning back.
I have given bearish view in past but then we need to constantly observe the macro and micro economics and need to change the view accordingly.No one is God in market.Market is the ultimate. Those who tried to move the market by themselves , whether it is BULL or BEAR they got lost and never came back.I know lots of example like that.....Either Bulls got lost or Bear got lost......Market is the supreme.......
But my undertone remianed always bullish.The valuations were abysmally low.
I would like to give special mention here for 2 stocks.I have discussed them in past here and at MMB.They are Marg Construction and Kavveri Tele.
Keep an eye on both of them.In both stock the profit have come down but they are still good enough to give over 10 eps.Marg perticularly has great orders in hand and good collobaration while Kavveri is a dark horse though promoters holding is poor I like it.
This bear market rally is going to get converted in a new bull run and I feel that we can see a new high before the end of next year.
It looks that I am carried away by this rally as all analyst and bears says that bear market rallies are vicious and fast.
But then let us see what happens.....I have already written what one needs to do in my last post...

Monday, April 13, 2009

Market up.....

Market was up by over 200 points and retraced back paring some gains on profit booking.
This rally which can go uptill election can sustain upto 12200-12500.
There will be reaction in May/June and hence June /July will again will be time for bargain hunting.Many people are saying they missed the opportunity.This will happen time and again as now those who feel they are left will never be able to catch those stocks if they wait for those prices.
Sujana Towers rallied from 10 to 18, XLTele rallied from 27 to 41,Gremach from mere 17 to 29 and many more which I had written here and not written here.
Stocks were going so cheap that they were buy at those price.Now we need to see how much they rally and then react.It may happen that we may not be able to see the previous lows of these stocks and if one thinks I will wait for those prices or little bit more then he may loose the opportunity.
Take a case of XL Tele.It went down all the way to 26 and it is 41.Now at 41 it is still cheaper.That is what one needs to understand because even at 41 it is way down from the high of 595.Even if we consider that those highs was due to euphoria even then we can say that around 200 where JM Fin and FII's took stake , is way down from there.
Investors needs to think in that way.The company is working and the loss is due to forex loss.See the sales figure and see the Mcap.Compare it.
When market will react we need to see how much low it can make.Whether it touches the previous lows or not.My feeling says that it may not.
Just read that China is saying that their slowdown has been arrested and from the knowledgable person who know about the business says that inventories that were there is almost over .So there is no piling of stocks.
Tata Steel has declared some good nos for sales.It is up by 45%.
Oil is now staying over $45.Commodities are coming back.
I had written in my previous post that I disagree with Ramesh Damani's stand that we will not be tocuhing the previous high for atleast 4-5 yrs.Not to mention Shankar Sharma.
I still stick to my view that we should cross the previous high much early then anyone expects.The positive effect of stimulous bill passed in USA and world over is showing effect.For the first time US housing selling has shown positive trend.That is a great thing.
The time has changed.The action taken by world leaders is fast and it is showing some good sign.
I again write here.Just look at my stocks which I listed here and try to buy whenever one can.
Some $10 bn contract is going to be alloted for making roads as India lacks the infrastructure.Hence stocks like JMC Project,Simplex Infra, HCC can be looked at.Special mention for PSL Ltd.It has Rs 6000 cr order on hand and it is going very cheap.
Remember one thing always which I had written many times.Buy even 100 shares.Have it in your portfolio.If it turns out a multibagger then one can be able to wipe out all loss from a single stock even with a holding of 100-200 shares.I have experianced that.Loss and profit are part and partial of stock market.How much we can make it up that matters......

Thursday, April 9, 2009

See Sensex at 100,000 in 15 yrs: Elliott Wave Int....The most Optimist targets ever....

See Sensex at 100,000 in 15 yrs: Elliott Wave Int

Published on Thu, Apr 09, 2009 at 14:11 , Updated at Thu, Apr 09, 2009 at 18:39 Source : CNBC-TV18
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Mark Galasiewski, Asian-Pacific Fin Forecast at Elliott Wave International, sees Sensex at 100,000 within 15 years based on technicals and current patterns. He is of the view that October 2008 lows have already been breached by most markets but India did not, which is very significant. "From the pattern perspective, there was only a three wave decline down to the October lows and most of the other major world markets made what we would call a fifth wave or final wave down in this leg of their bear markets, but India is special because it has only three waves down."

Here is a verbatim transcript of Mark Galasiewski’s comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: You seem to be very bullish on India. Looking at the charts of
Sensex, what is your target for the Sensex in medium-term as well as the long-term, because you have a 15 year target?
A: We are very bullish, in fact this is going to sound extraordinary to many people but this is all based on technicals and if the patterns we are observing are correct, the implication is
Sensex 100,000 within 15 years.

Q: What is your view on the Asian markets in that context, you think Asian markets will also rally or is it going to be just a regional phenomenon with Indian markets outperforming?
A: Our forecast for India is based on the particular what we are calling the Indian Ocean Group, these are the markets from Pakistan, down to Indonesia, that are connected to the Indian ocean. This is very distinct from the rest of East Asia for example and very distinct from Europe and the US. Our services here in the Eliot Wave International are forecasting larger bear markets for the next few to several years in the US, Europe, Japan and even china. India and the subcontinent in particular is special.

Q: Do you think that the October lows that we hit for global markets will be breached by most markets or will those lows hold?
A: The October lows already have been. The fact that India did not, is very significant. From the pattern perspective, there was only a three wave decline down to the October lows and most of the other major world markets made what we would call a fifth wave or final wave down in this leg of their bear markets, but India is special because it has only three waves down.

My Comments:
This is the most Optimist target I have ever seen in my life.It even beats Rakesh Jhunjhunwala optimism.
So what one needs to do?
Brace yourself and begin investing as you start getting money or enough spare money to invest.
The Elliot wave technicals is the pattern the technical analyst follows very religiously and this is coming from non Indian which makes us feels better then our local analyst.None of the local analyst have been able to read the Elliot Wave pattern in this way , the way Mark has discussed it here.
Now if we think say not 100,000 but 80,000 then we ought not to be at below 21,000 even after 5 yrs because after 10 yrs should touch from say 16k-17k to 80,000 to 1,00,000!So brace your self and start investing .......
Latest news is that RK Damani , who use to wear always white pants and white shirt and White Coat.....in Suit( also fondly known as a man in White and White).....has cutoff all his short position and is waiting for Macro and micro triggers to take stance accordingly.
One need to remember that RK Damani and not Ramesh Damani whom we see on TV, is the mentor of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and that means he carry lots of weight when we wants to look what is going to happen in Indian Stock Market.
Golden period awaits for Indian Market in years ahead........
What I fail to understand is why our Indian counterparts of technical analyst fails to see this pattern !
What this implies.....!and rather when we think about this that "When FII's will know about our market Potential in Long Term what will happen?

Will be very interesting to see what Shankar Sharma will say on this ! and how he will try to place himself.....

Make yourself stress-proof ...........

I use to read ET almost daily and use to go through the whole epaper daily as I do not have paper copy in USA.
I use to read the middle page as well and read the COSMICUPLINK EVERY NOW AND THEN.
I have gone through a great article today and hence pasted it here for readers to read.
It is worth a look........
Hope readers will like it......


Make yourself stress-proof

FOUR hundred years ago Rene Descartes, the French philosopher declared, ‘I think, therefore I am.’ He was right, and at the same time, he was wrong. This declaration has formed the basis of modern thinking. Billions of people in this world have followed Descartes for generations believing that unless each one outthinks the other they cannot succeed in this world. He was right in that the human system does not know how to live without its mind, without thinking. As a result human beings have become slaves to their minds. They live in bondage. He was wrong in that it is possible to live without the mind! Many centuries before Descartes, a vedic sage declared that man does not begin to exist till he stops thinking. Adi Shankara, the boy sage from ancient India, at the age of eight, faced his future master across the waters of the holy Tungabhadra river. The master asked him, ‘Who are you?’ In response Adi Shankara said, ‘I am not the mind, I am not the intellect, I am not the ego and I am not the senses. I am beyond all that. I am pure consciousness.’ (That is merely what Holy Gita says, great Yogi , the Master , the irreplacable Lord Shri Krishna says)We are merely a bio-machine as long as we think we are mind and body. We are just a shade better than the animals we ascended from as long as we allow our senses to guide us. The true potential of human beings is not in the power of the mind. The purpose of human life is to transcend the mind and reach a higher state of consciousness. In that state we are truly in the divinity that we descended from. Till we reach that state of unity with what we truly are, we are in turmoil.( that is where we need to try to see ourselves,take ourselves ). This turmoil between our true nature and what we pretend and strive to be is what we call stress or tension. Stress is an inevitable part of life. There can be no life without what we term ‘stress’. However, we can make ourselves stress-proof, by simply choosing not to be affected by what happens outside us. Such an easy technique! This is not impractical. It is your conditioning that makes you get affected by what happens to you through events that are beyond your control. Nothing is inherently good or bad except what we judge them to be. Drop your judgement about yourself, about people around you and about situations. You will see that suddenly you have become stress-free! That is all it takes to be liberated from stress. Meditation can help you with this liberation. It helps you reach the restful mindstate from which you can actively participate and yet be untouched by the events around you. You really have nothing to lose by trying, except your stress! Be Blissful!

Friday, April 3, 2009

Second part of Whether God exist or not.......

Prof: Yes. Faith. And that is the problem science has.
Student: Professor, is there such a thing as heat?
Prof: Yes.
Student: And is there such a thing as cold?
Prof: Yes.
Student: No sir. There isn't.
(The lecture theatre becomes very quiet with this turn of events.)
Student: Sir, you can have lots of heat, even
more heat, superheat, mega heat, white heat, a little heat or no heat. But we don't have anything called cold. We can hit 458 degrees below zero which is no heat, but we can't go any further after that. There is no such thing as cold. Cold is only a word we use to describe the absence of heat. We cannot measure cold. Heat is energy. Cold is not the opposite of heat, sir, just the absence of it.
(There is pin-drop silence in the lecture theatre.)
Student: What about darkness, Professor? Is there such a thing as darkness?
Prof: Yes. What is night if there isn't darkness?
Student : You're wrong again, sir. Darkness is the absence of something. You can have low light, normal light, bright light, flashing light....But ifyou have no light constantly, you have nothing and it's called darkness, isn't it? In reality, darkness isn't. If it were you would be able to makedarkness darker, wouldn't you?
Prof: So what is the point you are making, young man?
Student: Sir, my point is your philosophical premise is flawed.
Prof: Flawed? Can you explain how?
Student: Sir, you are working on the premise of duality. You argue there is life and then there is death, a good God and a bad God. You are viewing the concept of God as something finite, something we can measure. Sir, science can't even explain a thought. It uses electricity and magnetism, but has never seen, much less fully understood either one.To view death as the opposite of life is to be ignorant of the fact that death cannot exist as a substantive thing. Death is not the opposite of life: just the absence of it.
Now tell me, Professor.Do you teach your students that they evolved from a monkey?
Prof: If you are referring to the natural evolutionary process, yes, of course, I do.
Student: Have you ever observed evolution with your own eyes, sir?
(The Professor shakes his head with a smile, beginning to realize where the argument is going.)
Student: Since no one has ever observed the process of evolution at work and cannot even prove that this process is an on-going endeavor, are you not teaching your opinion, sir? Are you not a scientist but a preacher? (The class is in uproar.)
Student: Is there anyone in the class who has ever seen the Professor's brain?
(The class breaks out into laughter.)
Student: Is there anyone here who has ever heard the Professor's brain, felt it, touched or smelt it? No one appears to have done so. So, according to the established rules of empirical, stable, demonstrable protocol, science says that you have no brain,sir.
With all due respect, sir, how do we then trust your lectures, sir?
(The room is silent. The professor stares at the student, his face unfathomable.)
Prof: I guess you'll have to take them on faith, son.
Student: That is it sir... The link between man & god is FAITH. That is all that keeps things moving & alive.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Can we break the previous Low of 7700!

Freinds ,
Market was up by over 193 points after a rally of 140 point yesterday.
I read the latest interview of Ramesh Damani on money control.
He is still bearish on market and feels that for next 5-6 yrs atleast there are no chance to cross the 21k.
He is of the opinion that we will also break the previous low not immidiately but will surely break it.He is very sure of it but I disgree with him here.The low that we made and the world market made was in Oct '08 and that was due to the reason that Lehman Br went bankrupt.
After that Satyam news came of siphoning the money and still we didn't break the previous low.
Then came the news of AIG of $61 bn loss in a qr.Still market sustained.
Hence I feel that we will need a very very big bad news to break the previous low of 7700.....This is my view and I maybe wrong.
I also came across through the interview of Shankar Sharma which he gave some 10 days back.
He is also bearish and very bearish.His rationale is totally different.He says that Momentum brings in the rally and the Bull market and not the valuations.He says that he has got numerous examples when valuations are cheap and still market goes nowhere.
But what I need to ask him is how the momentum takes place?
Can he tell me how momentum will come in our market?
Agreed that valuation can remain cheap and still market remains there but at some point of time that same cheap valuation is seen by FII's, DII's, HNI's and they start pouring money in these market and hence the momentum comes.
So the backbone of momentum is CHEAP VALUATION....No one in the world can ignore it.
What Shankar Sharma is talking not getting in my mind.His reasons are not jutifiable.
Same with RD that we will go much lower then previous low of 7700....I still feel that it should not happen and as Mark Mobious said recently that this Bear Rally can turn out in unfolding a new Bull Market.
We can see a good run up from hereon as I have written peviously uptill election.
I have seen many of my stock I listed in cash gr and even in A gr has run up yesterday very nicely.......let us keep our fingure crossed.........
If we run upto say 11k or 12k then from thereon market is going to come back to 7700 and break it then there should come a very very bad news to do that.
Say our market touches 12k and then if has to come to 7000 or 6000 then it has to shed some 5000 to 6000 points and for that some very bad negatives will be needed.....as it can be derived that whatever negatives of global financial crisis or USA housing sector slow down has been factored in.
As I have written earlier Banks and Finance sector can outperform in big way any time.Be contrarian.