Thursday, December 31, 2009

Beating The Dalal Street ....HITS 1 LAC VISITS.....

After 2 years of starting the blog which was on 12th Dec 2007.....the 1 lac visit has been made with 1.6 lacs pages viewed.
I accidently went to the site metre page today and saw that the 1 LAC visit has already gone through couple of days back.
I thanks every reader of mine for putting faith in me and keeping the blog in good view.
I will try my best to put my effort while writing the stuff here.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

SNL Bearing and Sujana Towers....and others.....

I am happy to note that SNL Bearing has doubled from my recomended price of Rs 11...which I wrote here on 24 Nov...means it has doubled in 1 month.......time to Bookprofit for early birds...those who bought at 11 should bookprofit and sell 50% and make the rest FREE...
Sujana Towers has come out with excellent results for this Sep qr showing almost 4 EPS...the sales is up by 50% then last year same qr......promoters has increased the stake and are now holding over 60% stake in it.....the NPM has also improved....
Sujana Towers is going to play major role in Power sector.........
One of the reader told me that Venus Remedies and YashRaj Containeurs are also doing good along with my other Tinplate Ltd which I recomended CR......Venus recomended at 220, is now 280.....great going.....
This is just a short note....there are many which are moving steadily like Laffans Petro, Jyoti Ltd,Rasandik Eng ,PAE etc...and some are remaining steady like Geometric Ltd,Kirlos Ferro, KPIT Cummins etc after a good upmove...Sahyadri Ind has crossed 100 mark and now ready for next upmove.....
I gave a callon CCAP Ltd at 41 citing all reasons...I donno whether someone bought it or is 55 now.....
With Textile sector coming back in favour,keep track on stocks like Super Spining, Super Sales, Suryalata Spinning , SuryaJyoti Spinning and Suryavanshi Spinning....these were market darling stocks in 90's ....the first 2 stocks have 50% eq due to Bonuses.....they were very good Co...the happy days are back again .......

What should an Investor do in this market......

I am trying to give my view on what one should do now at sensex 17k....
My thinking maybe totally wrong and there can be big difference in what I will write or what people will think, including my readers as well as experts........I am no match to those experts as I am not in contact of what FII's thinks or what DII's thinks or what HNI's think or for that matter what Fund manager thinks be it Indian for Foriegn.....So those who find views different then me should opt for what they think is correct.There is no bounding from me.It is yours money and you should know what needs to be done.....
I sometimes also feels that as one of the reader wrote me recently that majority of my picks which I gave in 2008 , the prices are way down from there.So am I good enough to write at my blog?Well, it is ofcourse my blog and I can write whatever I think, but the question arises is if my picks do not do well then whether it is worth writing here......
He also ask me that he wants to learn from me how I pick up the stock.But I ask him, if I am not able to give proper picks , which are laggards and gives negative returns then why he should try to learn my way of picking stock......
He also once asked me that isn't it so that as market is running ,hence my picks are also doing good?Now when that is the case then where is the need to follow my blog?
He ask me if Luck is playing that much important role then why this boasting?Yes, I agree, that Luck plays important role but then in that case one needs to close the eye and put a fingure on any stock quote in ET or any business paper and buy it and if you have LUCK, you are always going to get great returns from that stock.......It is that simple....
He also tells me that I was never pessimist in whole 2008.Well, who was?Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
has said in an interview that he never thought that market will break 16k.We never saw him selling stocks in 2008.Did we?What that says?Did we saw Warren Buffet selling stocks in 2008?
Market broke 16k and even went down by 50% from there at 8k .......but RJ holding was still there.....
I have been adviced that the rule has changed.One need to sell fast and buy fast.Means take 10-20% profit and move to other stock.But according to me the rules has not changed.People holding stocks for LT has been rewarded by the market immensly and that has been proved again except the stock is proper.....
Now coming back to what one should 17,000 sensex....
Well, one should go ahead and BUY stocks if one sees value ......that is the most important thing one should understand......
As one of the reader pasted me an article of Dalal Street journal magazine ,in which it was written that many are still sceptic about the market and there are pockets who are waiting for correction.....
Value ,one will always find anytime.Was Burlington North cheap when Buffet decided to buy at 20-30% premium of market price?It was already $70-$73 and Buffet bougt at 20-25% premium....No one was ever able to see that before Buffet?Where were Marc Faber,Jim Rogers and likes ......or is it so that Buffet decision is wrong?He overly paid for Burlington North?Was Buffet thinking was wrong?

What one can see as a mistake can become a very great investment in future...I am sure many people were thinking that investment in HOEC was a blunder that RJ made but see where it is now and if one will see the latest annoucement , HOEC has all the ingrediants to go for 4 figure mark.

What is important in market is what one is able to read in future of any Co.Looking at present performance on earnings, one will say it is fully priced or overly priced but I can say that HOEC has the ability to touch 1000-1200 in due course time....I can read it from the news that are coming from HOEC .

HOEC remained dorment for almost 5 yrs and never ran in the last bull run.Instead it went on increasing capital through right issue, I think the right issue came what that will lead to.....Co is doing nothing and spending money and increasing the Eq.....and now see, before market makes new HIGH, HOEC is making new HIGHS......Analyst will always says that HOEC is overpriced.....Aree ,HOEC to kain lavato hase?Ema shun che......and those who didn't buy missed a multibagger.....
So the thing is , how you can you can judge what is coming up.....that is the bottomline.....
So according to some experts if Bull market is when sensex crosses 21k...then we have a very long way to go and if one is thinking that India can grow much higher then this then one should stay invested as the peak has not come yet.
The euphoria is still not there.My way to seeing the euphoria will be when we will again see the column of 52 week high in ET becoming bigger and bigger....that has not yet comein.....I have seen some experts saying that all stocks has started running, cats and dogs ,and hence time to be catious, then I don't believe them as not all cats and dogs are running, Only those who have some story brewing up are running...At 17k, we are just 4k behind at all time high of sensex and hence cash gr stock has to matchup with it....this is not euphoria...there are many who are sitting in sidelines waiting for more correction....waiting for 13k or once Shankar Sharma categorically said that he sees 12k first before 21k comes......Untill those sitting on sidelines waiting for correction becomes desperate and start investing, thinking that they will now definately miss the market never gives the price at the rate you wants to enter and untill market gives that chance , it is not euphoria.....stocks that goes up is still coming back to give chance to buy at lower rate...the day the previous price stops coming will starts its journey towards peaking out....

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

What's luck got to do with investing? ..........

What's luck got to do with investing?
Vivek KaulMonday, December 28, 2009 21:53 IST Email

How do I define history? It's just one f*%&ing thing after another.
-- Rudge in Alan Bennett's The History Boys

I came across this sentence last night and it's been haunting me ever since. It reminds me of a situation which I encounter almost everyday: "What's the story?" my editor(s) ask, when I make a pitch to them about something I want to write on.

Well I don't blame them for asking the same question over and over again. After all, newspapers are in the business of making sense of what is happening around us. But are we really doing that? Or to ask a deeper question, can we really do that?

Take the case of the BSE Sensex rallying by a little more than 500 points on December 23. Now why did it happen? If newspaper reports are to be believed (including this newspaper), the market went up because the finance minister revised the GDP growth rate to between 7.5% and 8%.

Sounds reasonable? Yes. Or does it?The FM has made such noises of the economy doing well in the past as well. Has the market rallied to such an extent, every time he has said something optimistic? Or has it rallied to the extent it rallied on December 23?

Or was it, to put it a little more realistically, a case of investors getting up on the right side of the bed, and in the pre-Christmas good mood, going out and buying stocks, and thus pushing up prices? The point is, I don't know. But I can't say that to my editor. We are in the business of explaining things. (In fact, the word analysis is even built into our paper's name). And that's what I do on an occasion like this; I try and create a story which explains things.

John Allen Paulos explains this phenomenon in his extremely engaging book A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market: "Around stock market rises and declines, people are often prone to devise just-so-stories to satisfy various needs and concerns."

Having said that, what would be the correct way to report on such events? Nassim Nicholas Taleb, before he became famous for writing Black Swan, wrote a much better book called Fooled by Randomness. In this book, he elaborates what he feels should be a true role of a journalist. "To be competent, a journalist should view matters like a historian, and play down the value of the information he is providing, such as by saying: 'Today the market went up, but this information is not too relevant as it emanates mostly from noise.'"

Now, have you ever come across a story, article or column in a newspaper that says just that? Of course not! Anybody trying to do that is more likely to lose his job, as Taleb puts it "by trivialising the value of information on his hands."

This inherent need to construct a story around events leads to several other interesting situations. The media likes heroes. We create them now to destroy them later.
Take the case of someone like a Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in India, or a Warren Buffett in the US. Are they really as competent as they are made out to be or does luck play a huge part in their success?

As Taleb writes, "If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of (strongly built) typewriters, and lets them clap away, there is a certainty that one of them would come out with an exact version of the Iliad... Now that we have found that hero among monkeys, would any reader invest his life's savings on a bet that the monkey would write the Oddsey next?"

The investors we love to write about are survivors who have had a lucky winning streak of generating greater returns than the broader market over the years.

As Malcolm Gladwell explains in his new book What the Dog Saw and Other Adventures, "Suppose that there were 10,000 investment managers out there, which is not an outlandish number, and that every year half of them, entirely by chance, made money and half of them, entirely by chance, lost. And suppose that every year, the losers were tossed out and the game was replayed with those who remained. At the end of five years, there would be three hundred thirteen people who had made money in every one of those years, and after 10 years, there would be nine people who had made money every single year in a row, all out of pure luck."

Leonard Mlodinow, a faculty at the California Institute of Technology explains this phenomenon rather succinctly: "a simple calculation shows that if a the few thousand mutual fund managers who were managing funds... were simply flipping coins once a year, rather than investing in the market, and if we equated getting 'heads' with beating the S&P, then after a few decades, the chances of a streak of 'beating the S&P' for 15 or more years in a row would be 75%.This illustrates that a streak like this was to be expected, by chance alone, and hence does not indicate skill."

A good example of a person who rode this phenomenon is a mutual fund manager called Bill Miller whose Legg Mason Value Trust mutual fund -- one of the biggest mutual funds in the world -- beat the returns of S&P 500 Index for 15 consecutive years from 1991 to 2005.

Tomes got written on his legendary investing style and various reasons got attributed to his success. But Mlodinow feels Miller was plain lucky. And his performance regressed to the mean once the current financial crisis had an impact on the performance of his fund. As Michael J Mauboussin, Miller's colleague at Legg Masson, writes in his new book Think Twice, "We have difficulty in sorting skill and luck in lots of fields, including business and investing."

Over and above this, because these guys are famous, other investors follow their investing decisions, buy when they buy, and sell when they sell. This makes these investors look even more smarter than they are. As Paulos writes about Warren Buffett: "His phenomenal success... is often cited as an argument against the market's randomness. This assumes, however, that Buffett's choices have no effect on the market. Originally no doubt they didn't, but now his selections themselves... can influence others. His performance is therefore a bit less remarkable than it first appears."

At times, investors themselves come up with stories and theories regarding their investment decisions. George Soros, the hedge fund manager, who once broke the back of the British pound, is said follow the Theory of Reflexivity, which was influenced by the work of the philosopher Karl Popper (who said and as Gladwell states in his new book, "You could not know with any certainty that a proposition was true; you could only know that it was not true"), while making his investment decisions.

But as Robert Soros once said about his more famous father, "My father will sit down and give you theories to explain why he does this or that. But I remember seeing it as a kid and thinking, Jesus Christ, at least half of this is bullshit. I mean, you know the reason he changes his position on the market or whatever is because his back starts killing him. It has nothing to do with reason. He literally goes into a spasm, and it's this early warning sign."

Luck plays a much more important role in the investing process than people (which include journalists like me) are ready to admit. But if we in the media start attributing luck and noise to every time a market moves, or an investor does well, what will we ever write about? And we need our headlines, because headlines sell what we write, though they never tell you the real story.

As Taleb summarises it best "People do not realise that the media is paid to get our attention. For a journalist, silence rarely surpasses any word."

Monday, December 28, 2009

Supreme old call......

I gave a call on Supreme Petro long time back.
I even discussed it here recently......
Now ET has come out with a buy report which I am pasting here for my readers.....
Reading today also that Goldman Sachs is taking over 10% stake for 500 cr and they will join the board of Max India as well......Max India , has remained my favourite stock as I have been recomending it time and again.
That once again proves that my calls are well ahead of time.....

Supreme Petrochem:

Supreme Petrochem is set gain from a turnaround in the polystyrene industry. Long-term investors should invest in the stock .

SUPREME Petrochemicals is India’s largest producer and exporter of polystyrene (PS) polymer with an installed capacity of 272,000 tonne per annum (TPA). The company acquired Shin Ho Petrochemicals in 2006 with a manufacturing capacity of 6,000 TPA of expandable polystyrene (EPS) at Chennai. The name of the company was later changed to SPL Polymers, before merging it with Supreme Petrochemicals.
In 2006, the company had entered into an MoU with the Maharashtra government to set up a world class styrenics complex and a minor port in the Raigad district at an estimated investment of Rs 1,115 crore. However, the land acquisition for the project is still continuing through MIDC
while the company has obtained environmental clearances. The company has implemented a share buyback last year to acquire and extinguish 15.4 lakh shares. The company’s equity capital now stands reduced to Rs 96.8 crore.


The polystyrene industry globally had been suffering from overcapacity and stagnating demand due to competition from polypropylene. However, the scenario has improved with nearly 1.5 million tonne or 10% of the world’s PS capacity closing down in last three years. At the same time, the demand prospects are improving. The lightweight sheets made from extruded PS are increasingly being used for insulation in construction buildings to reduce energy consumption. In fact several developed countries have made this kind of insulation mandatory, and even in India the concept is gaining currency as part of ‘Green Building’ initiatives. In fact the first half of 2009 witnessed the domestic demand for PS spurt 22% against a year ago.
Supreme Petrochemicals is also shifting its focus from commodity polymer to value added varieties such as coloured, compounded, specialty, expandable, extruded and cup grade polystyrene. It has lined up investments of over Rs 200 crore to expand its capacities in all these value added products within next 18 months. The company has also entered in a tie-up with Italy’s Ultrabatch to manufacture and market high-end additive masterbatches, which are concentrated mixture of pigments and additives. Similarly, it has joined
hands with the US based Nova Chemicals to set up 20,400 TPA cup-grade EPS plant in India, which has recently commenced operations.


The company has been stagnating over last 5 years - both in case of topline as well as bottom line - due to difficult situations in the global polystyrene markets. During these five years, the company improved its debt-equity ratio gradually to 0.7 as on June 30, ’09 as against 1.48 five years ago.
For the year ended in June ’09, the company recorded a net profit of Rs 19.2 crore despite a net loss of Rs 46.7 crore in the December ’08 quarter due to inventory losses. A strong rebound in demand in the first half of 2009 enabled the company to wipe out these losses and end the year in profit.


At the current market price of Rs 26 the company is valued at eight times its profits for the trailing 12 months. The current price is just 1.3 times the book value of the company’s stock price. Going forward, we expect the company to report net profit after tax of Rs 55 crore during the year ending June 2010, which translates in a forward P/E of 4.6. The dividend yield of 3.8% can add to the margin of safety for an investor. Considering the growth prospects as a result of the industry turnaround Supreme Petrochemicals appears attractively priced.

Thursday, December 24, 2009


What is valuation?How is it determined?What are the parametres to determine it.
We have seen experts of stock market speaking on Valuation.
The term use are undervalued, Overvalued or valuation at par....there can be many more names for giving ......
Now , how one can come on conclusion that the stock is overvalued or undervalued.I have a big PDF file which explains how to calculate the valuations that someone send me.I have saved it in my computer but has never read it.
If one will try to find a book on how to find valuation, they will find many books and after reading investor will find it fentestic and also would talk to some other stockmarket friend about that book and even refer it to read it.
Why I didn't go through that PDF File speaking on valuation?There are reasons for me not go read it.
I am not sure whether it is still there in my computer, so please don't ask for it........
I have seen that analyst who comes on business channel, says that so and so stock is now fully valued,means very less scope of going up.So one need to sell it or bookprofit in it.
Some stock expert says it is undervalued and can be bought.
I have seen one fund house or FII's or brokerage house giving a overvalued call on certain stock and other will come out with a buy next couple of days......Now why that is happening?When one says it is overvalued why other is saying undervalued?
This gives the answer itself....there are different parametres to look at the valuations and all have different way to analyse it.One find overvalued other find undervalue....why so , because the growth one is able to see, other is not able to see.Or in other words,what one has got the firsthand information after meeting the management, other is not having that and hence one ends up saying it is overvalued and other end up saying it is undervalued........
Well, if there is not a big difference between two opinion then it is OK but when one says is totally opposite to what other say then whom to believe.
Valuation is not a constant thing.It keeps on changing,everyhour, everday , everyweek, everymonth or even everyyear.
A Co, say Aban Llyod, was overvalued in Jan 2009 and need to be sold with so big of debt and I was reading sell call from each and every house and in just one go......Crude started going up....valuation become cheap......look at the 52 week lows and 52 week high........of Aban Llyod....
Just a big order for a Co and stock become product becomes successful and stock become undervalued.....
Valuation is a constantly changing thing.A stock can remain overvalued or fullyvalued for 2-3 yrs or even 4-5 yrs and suddenly the fortune changes and stock becomes darling and everyone wants to buy it......There are innumerable example like that in Indian Stock market as well in International market.
Valuation depends on how the economy is faring, how the Cos product is doing, what are the future potential of the Cos product,what world will need, how will be the demand,will perticular co will get beniffited from that and over and above that How market is doing.......there are so much of things to be taken care of that it is impossible to say anything on valuation front at anytime unless you have firsthand report.....on any Co.
Nestle was looking costly at 1600 to Dr Vikas and now at 2500 he is asking me whether it is a buy or not.
So at 1600 Nestle was overvalued and at 2500 it is not?Well that depends on how one thinks.If someone think that product will do good and has great future , one can definately go ahead and buy it at even this rate.
There is P/E ratio to decide.People looks at P/E .....sector p/e and see if that stock has lower p/e then other peers gr.....but that is also always not a great thing to do.Market can keep certain stock undervalued for a longer period of time and one can left with that stock not moving at all for entire whole bull run.......
Valuation is also related with demand and supply.If demand is more and supply is less then the stock can soar to great highs....irrespective of earnings.....
I have seen people (read expert) selling stocks at 3-5 times return and that stock went on to give 20-30 times noone can say that a stock is overvalued or undervalued......I think it is impossible to opine on that parametres.....
Have you ever met with a stock which when you see after 3-6 months or a year and you feel ,you missed it?These thing should have happened with each and everyone.I have no doubt about it.
Now why you were not able to buy it at that time ?What was the reason at that time that you missed such a great stock and ended up with something else which may be a laggard in your portfolio?Because at that time you were not able to see what is there in that stock and hence you didn't buy and those who were able to see bought it and making hay......
If the fundmanagers , analyst and some experts are so great in telling whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued then why their clients or funds Nav is still underpeforming even with the average return of market?
If they are great teller then they should show better return then the market gives but that is not the case........Very less funds gives above average return then market and very less gives same return like market .....
What is value then?Value is brand, value is management,value is growth, Value is foreseeing when I wrote on SNL Bearing is NRB bearing managed Co .....which is showing positive bottomline.....and available at just Rs 11!Can one imagine a NRB Bearing run Co have such a less value? that is VALUE........Like I wrote on Yashraj Containeurs Ltd......great product and great clientele list and great earning .....and stock at 3-4 p/e?That is value.......and mind well, after doing all these market may not give the thumbs up to that stock...and one has to wait for longer period untill others find out.....

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

SNL Bulk Deal.......

I saw a Bulk Deal on bsesite for SNLBearing.....

23/12/2009 505827 SNL Bearings SHAREKHAN LTD A/C Diversified Equity B 37000 18.50

So from some 41750 shares traded ,37000 shares went to an a/c of Diversified Equity fund with Sharekhan.....Seems someone is buying for LT.....
One of the reader named Deb was asking me what about those stocks which are not running and standing still or have gone down after my recomendation.
Well, I want to give answer to all here so that no one has any question left in future.Though I have been writing giving reasons what happens and what needs to be done....but seems followers are not reading me properly means they just read my post casually....just for the sake of reading other wise no one should be able to end up asking some question which are not supposed to be asked......
Anyway, now let me come to the point......
It is obvious that
1)Not all stocks that I recomend is going to run immidiately.
2)Not all will give multibagger returns.
3)Not all will run in this Bull Run...
4)Some will also underform
5)Some will also give negative returns.....
6) Some will give average return....

Now one will look at this list ,the negative list is bigger then Positive.....
Hence forward keep this point in mind before buying any stock that I recomend here.
I am at all not responsible for any negative return or no profit......If anyone feels at anytime that after buying stocks , it is not worth holding , he should sell it without letting me know......or need not ask me whether it is still a hold or not.......Its yours money and your money is at stake ......hence the decision should also be yours......when one should sell and what should be done , I have discussed in detail .....
What I am doing here is just pointing out some undiscovered stocks.....that's all.........
It is obvious that no all picks can give multibagger return.What I write here is stocks which has potential to become multibagger.....and when I say potential,means there is a story in it, and it may comeout good or maynot........that RISK will remain always...........

I am at all not responsible for any loss or profit of any readers who buys or sells reading my calls......As whatever PROFIT they make from my calls is theirs, so is the LOSS they make from my calls........

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Stocks recomended in past......

I remember I recomended Gensys Int at around 100 which has doubled at 201.
I use to recomend time and again Jyoti Ltd around 35-42 range.It was inching up slowly since many days and suddenly it went for 20% UC yesterday to close at 62.75.....
Jyoti Ltd has been my favourite pick and I have recomended it many times here.Looking still good and can be bought in small quantity now and add on dips....
I have been recomending EPC Ind along with Rungta Irrigation.EPC Ind is looking good and promoters are buying big from the open market.Just saw today in ET that Schroder Credit has bought 9,16,667 shares along with Credit Renaissence 1,83,333 shares .....on 11 th Dec....
EPC ind is still looking good at 48......
There is one stock named ASM Technology at 28 which is looking good to me.
Ennore Coke recomended here at 43 along with PAE at 31 has been firing all cylinders......Ennore Coke after making a high of 64 corrected to 51 and now again back to 60 and in circuits.So is PAE....
Both have a long way to go......
I recomended SNL Bearing Ltd at just Rs 11 here and it is making new highs at 19.84 ....and looking good still to me.....
I have been recomending Laffans Petro since long and has been my favourite since my mmb days.Laffans has signed MOU with M/s HUNTSMAN CORPORATION, SINGAPORE PTE LTD which is going to be a trigger for growth for Laffans Petro in future.This MOU will do whole lot of good for this Co located in Gujarat.

Offlate I have been tracking Rasandik Eng and looking good to me at around this level or even 4-7 points up.
The best thing is when a stock is found ,one need to first take a token entry at the prevailing rate and then wait for any correction.But don't miss the entry as it may happen sometimes that stock runsup and we totally lose opportunity to buy it at all........
So first buy token quantity and then have a look and then take a plunge in it after due diligence....We don't know which is going to be a I just saw that Splash Media was only Rs .35 in Jan 09 and now it is Rs.535 in Dec 09....means 15 times return in a complete 1 year.....that is enormous by any standard.....
Who says one cannot get big return stock market......there is nothing impossible in market ...everything is possible.....Remember this FOREVER.....

Monday, December 21, 2009

Mark Mobious Latest Interview..............

By Frederik Balfour , On Friday December 18, 2009, 8:08 am EST

Mark Mobius is a legend among emerging-market investors. For more than 30 years, the 73-year-old fund manager, who oversees $33 billion spread across 35 Franklin Templeton funds, has scouted for investment opportunities in unlikely places. His U.S.-listed Templeton Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE:EMF - News)had a 109% return as of Dec. 14, compared with 73% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Hong Kong-based correspondent Frederik Balfour caught up with Mobius by phone as the fund manager was visiting Doha, Qatar -- one stop on an itinerary that included Dubai, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Libya.

What was behind the huge runup in emerging markets in 2009?

With the subprime shock, everybody was looking for safety. And for some strange reason, they thought the U.S. dollar was safe and went into money market funds until January or February of 2009. Then people began to wake up to a few things. One was that the supply of currency would at some time outpace demand, so value would decrease. In China there was 21% growth of money supply, and in the U.S. 18% to 20%. That created this incredible liquidity looking for a home as people woke up (to the fact) that they should think about inflation coming down the pike. They weren't getting any yield on dollar deposits, so equities were the obvious answer.

Have emerging markets moved too far too fast?

The percentage increases are a bit misleading because you are coming from a low base(That is what needs to be understand by market GURUS). We are only halfway toward the previous high of 1997. Have we gone too far? The only measure we have is valuations, and probably the best single measure is price-to-book value ratio. (Book value is a measure analysts use to estimate what a share of stock would be worth if all the company's tangible assets -- factories, real estate, and so on -- were liquidated.) If you look at the average price-to-book ratio based on the stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, we are only halfway to the 1997 high. The absolute high was three times book, the low was one times book, and now we are at two times book, roughly.

Could things reverse course?

You better believe there are a lot of hedge funds out there betting against this rally. That provides more volatility. It's a self-feeding situation. You have to be aware that the volatility will be there and there is nothing you can do about it.

Apart from all the money in the system, what is driving the emerging-market rally?

Fundamentals. If you look at any time period -- 10 years, 3 years, 1 year -- emerging markets have outperformed U.S. and global markets.(This someone needs to go and tell Shankar Sharma who always advocates that Emerging markets movement is corelated with US market) Their economies ( read emerging market)are growing faster, four times faster. And during the 1997-1998 Asian crisis (policymakers in) emerging markets realized they needed strong balance sheets at the national and company level and had to build up foreign reserves, which they've done. They were building up reserves, keeping their currencies low, and reducing debt. Their debt-to-gross-domestic-product levels are way below developed markets, and when you look at the foreign exchange picture, it's even more impressive. Russia has $400 billion in reserves; China, $2 trillion. So where do you want to put your money? Obviously, emerging markets are the place.

How did the panic caused by property developer Dubai World's debt woes affect the appetite for emerging-market stocks?

There was some retreat, but it was very short-lived. Dubai keeps on tanking because of uncertainty. Emerging markets hardly missed a beat.

What markets are you keen on?

Brazil and China. Our funds are big, so obviously we want to be in a place where there is good liquidity. But we are also looking at many other markets. We have a frontier-markets fund that we launched about a year ago -- we have one fund in the U.S., one in Europe, and one in Korea. Korean investors have become quite global.

What new markets have you entered?

Well, I was just in Libya and Algeria, though it will be a while before we (invest) there. I am speaking to you from Doha in Qatar, then I'm on to Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia and back to Dubai. We are investing in all those countries. There is money coming into our funds, and we see opportunities. Obviously with the high degree of uncertainty, you see an overreaction in Dubai (so there are buying opportunities). Qatar has gas exports taking off, and it's going to have a lot of money to invest. They are building this incredible infrastructure and investing in technology. We are investing in Qatar Steel and Qatar National Bank. In Dubai, we are investing in Emaar Properties and DB World, the ports company.

We continue to hold on and buy in India. In Pakistan, we are probably overweight compared with everyone else. For our Asia growth funds, we have been buying Pakistan Telecom, MCB Bank, and Indus Motor, which is a Toyota (NYSE:TM - News) assembler and distributor. In Iraq, we haven't gone in yet. We have a private equity fund looking at it as well. There is a stock exchange, by the way. And Iran has a big market. When and if things get better, that would be an obvious place to hit.

What themes are you investing around?

Commodities are a main theme. We are looking at $70 per barrel in our model. Another theme is consumers, because the per capita income of consumers in emerging markets is going up. We hold retail chain Massmart from South Africa, which is beginning to move north to other countries. In Kenya, (we hold) East African Breweries. As for telcos, we find them expensive and think the chances of growth are diminishing. It's a bit like the airline industry. You have to keep on investing and buying expensive licenses where the government takes you for a ride.

How do you expect emerging markets to perform in 2010?

You cannot expect the same kind of percentage increases, but that doesn't mean you can't have a very good return. We are not in the mode of selling massively or getting into cash, that's for sure. That's probably the consensus opinion, which is usually dangerous. But we are finding companies with good dividend yields, companies that are growing.

My Comments:

I have already given my comments in bracket in the it is on readers what needs to understand and whom to follow....

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Yashraj Containuers.....cmp..24.45.....Value Buy...

Yashraj Containuers is in containers and packaging sector.


Starting with the manufacture of metal barrels, of 180 - 235 liters capacity, in the year 1993, YASHRAJ has grown to become one of the largest manufacturers of industrial packaging solutions in India with a wide range of standard and specialty steel barrels in different sizes and thicknesses with a choice of internal as well as external coatings and configurations. Since its birth, YASHRAJ has committed to Excellence through continual improvements in Customer service and product quality along with developments of new technologies and processes.
Easy access to raw materials manufacturers & customers, ready markets, fully automatic plant incorporated with latest engineering technology, well implemented quality management systems, innovative strategies give YASHRAJ significant advantages over its competitors.

Professionally well qualified, highly accomplished, experienced and committed personnel are the strength of this organization. Active participation of all employees in continual improvements and tackling real business problems helps them to learn practical insights and a pragmatic approach with a clear business focus, which in turn helps YASHRAJ to achieve its goals.

The Machine
YASHRAJ's strategically located fully automatic Steel barrel manufacturing plant at Daman is having an installed production capacity to manufacture 400 barrels per hour. The plant is equipped with machines from renowned manufacturers such as 'General Macchine Impianti s.r.l, Italy ( Main barrel manufacturing line), Thermax Ltd ( Barrel Pretreatment Line), Nordson Corporation, USA ( Hot Airless Spray Painting Systems), Deltax ( Electrical Resistance Welding Machine) etc.

Conveyors between each & every processes in barrel manufacturing, EOT Crane, Hoists and other low cost automations incorporated in the plant help to achieve minimum manual handling of raw materials, semi-finished and finished products.

Our properly designed finished goods storage space that can store 15000 barrels at a time and the designated trucks for barrel transportation are also playing their role in quality improvements.

Strict implementation of Total Productive Maintenance of plant and machineries helps to maximize processes reliability and optimum machine turn around & plant utilization capacity.

The Technology
Barrels are manufactured in our ISO 9001: 2000 Certified Daman plant under the dimensional and performance standards set by Bureau of Indian Standards, Indian Institute of Packaging, UN Performance Level or our Customers itself. "Electrical Resistance Seam Welding" technology (with an overlap of 2.2 mm) is used in Vertical Seam.The top & bottom lids are mechanically seamed to the body shell of barrel using "Triple Seam" technology that guarantee leakproofness of barrel.

"Three Stage External Barrel Pretreatment System" (which consists of Hot Degreasing, Rinsing and Passivation),there after water drying through oven ensure the elimination of dust, rust, grease, oil etc on the barrel surfaces before painting.

Hot Airless Spray Painting Systems, Paint Baking through a continuous oven and the barrel Cool - off system ensure safe performance of the product.

Specially selected and imported as well as indigenous barrel manufacturing machines equipped with Programmable Logic Control systems, aided by Siemens and Allan Bradly Softwares, ensure precise and fine control of the finished product properties.

Continual up gradation, implementation and strict Maintenance of world class quality has been the reason for YASHRAJ being a major success in the industry. We provide the best of our services to assist our customers to fulfill their requirements at a very competitive price through our design of custom made superior quality products and the use of special purpose manufacturing techniques.

This superior quality, the state-of-the-art processes and the committed work force has helped YASHRAJ to find a name for itself in the list of elite companies awarded the ISO, BIS and UN Certifications for its products and processes.

We offer various packaging options to our esteemed customers such as 'Closed Top' & 'Open Top' steel barrels in a range of sizes and thicknesses with a choice of coating for safe packing of materials for petroleum products and oils, chemicals and pesticide, paint and varnishes, food, pharmaceutical and hazardous chemical industries with a high degree of internal cleanliness, leakproofness and external appearances.


YASHRAJ Close Top steel barrels with a capacity of 216.5 liter, which are ideal for liquids, complies with IS 1783 standard or other major international standards for steel barrels as per customer requirement. These barrels also comply with stringent UN regulations for packing non-dangerous and dangerous goods in the packing groups 1, 2 and 3.

YASHRAJ steel barrels are provided with rolling hoops and thinner gauge steel barrels are provided with extra corrugations for better mechanical strength.

Electrical resistance seam welding of body shell, Triple seaming of top & bottom lids to the body shell and the superior quality systems checks implemented throughout all phases of barrel manufacturing processes ensure the best performance of the products.

Two openings of 2" & ¾" provided on the barrel allow easy and convenient filling and removal of materials. Gaskets ( rubber / nylon / plastic) on closures are provided depending up on the application of barrels at customer end.

Barrels are available in various sizes ranging from 180 to 235 liters and thickness of steel ranges between 0.8 to 1.25 mm along with a customer specification of external decorative paint coating which is resistant to humidity, sunlight and heat.

YASHRAJ barrels can be internally coated with a phenolic, epoxy-phenolic lacquer or a special coating in accordance with the customer requirement. Technical assistance is provided to customers to determine the suitable internal coating for their specific purpose. Different types of sealing compounds are used depending up on the compatibility of that compound with the product to be filled in the barrels while manufacturing barrels.

YASHRAJ offers special ISO barrels of 210 liter capacity For exporters, 80 of which can be stacked in one 20 foot freight container. G.I coated barrels are also supplied to customers for their specific purpose.


YASHRAJ Open Top Steel barrels are suitable for storage and transportation of liquids, pastes and solid substances. These barrels comply with UN regulations for packing non-dangerous and dangerous goods in the packaging groups II and III. These barrels also comply IS 13997 standard or other major international standards as per customer requirement.

The full open top removable cover and closure ring allow easy filling and removal of all contents, including high viscous liquids and powders. The full open top removable cover can be provided with different gaskets and 2" & 3/4" closures . The barrels can be provided with a Lever type or Nut and Bolt type closure ring. Different types of lever in various sizes and steel thicknesses and rings of various steel thicknesses
can be provided as per customer requirement.

Electrical resistance seam welding of body shell, Triple seaming of top & bottom lids to the body shell and the superior quality systems checks implemented throughout all phases of barrel manufacturing processes ensure the best performance of the products.

Open Top Barrels are available in various sizes ranging from 180 to 235 liters and thickness of steel ranges between 0.8 to 1.25 mm along with a customer specification of external decorative paint coating which is resistant to humidity, sunlight and heat.

Open Top Barrels, provided with rolling hoops and corrugations depending on the thickness of steel used in fabrication, are available. Customer specified plain open top barrel with out any rolling hoop or corrugations are also available. In addition to that, YASHRAJ also offers internal coated (with epoxy lacquer), ISO container type and Zinc coated / Galvanized open top barrels.


YASHRAJ Composite barrels have a double shell protection. The inner is a blow moulded plastic liner made from virgin high density polyethylene. This is surrounded by high quality cold rolled steel to provide unrivalled protection.

Composite barrels, in a capacity of 210 liters, are designed for packing dangerous and corrosive materials. These drums comply with UN regulations and Indian Institute of Packaging standards.

Two openings with 2" plastic closures are provided on the top lid of such barrels for filling and removal of contents. Vent holes or 3 /4" closure is provided on the bottom lid of barrels.

Electrical resistance seam welding of steel body shell , Triple seaming of top & bottom lids to the body shell, best quality plastic liners and the superior quality systems checks implemented throughout all phases of barrel manufacturing processes ensure the best performance of the products.

The chemically cleaned surface of steel barrel, special stoving enamel paints, high quality application of painting and paint baking give a cutting edge to YASHRAJ Composite barrels for excellent resistance to humidity, heat and sunlight.


Our client list includes leading companies in the government public sector undertakings, defence services and private sector companies. Few among our major customers are Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, IBP, Bharat Shell, Gulf Oil Corporation Ltd, Jubilant Organosys Ltd, Tide Water Oil Company India Ltd, Asian Paints Ltd, United Phosphorus Ltd, Reliance Industries Ltd, Micro Inks Ltd, Ranbaxy Fine Chemicals, Mitsu Ltd etc.

My Comments:

Yashraj Containuers is constantly showing great results and in last qr the NPM also went up.Need to see whether it get sustained or not.

Mcap of Yashraj Containuers is just 22 cr and sales is 112 cr means 5 times more then Mcap.Eq is tiny at 9 cr and hence looking excellent on fundamental front when we look at the earnings , its products and clintele list.

One of analyst who use to come on CNBC , not frequently, but use to come every 3-4 months or 2-3 months has taken stake in it and one can see his name in the SHP.I would not name him but would like to know from my readers who is he......He is there since 3-4 years and has not sold a single share uptill now.

Yashraj Containuer is looking good to me and I would recomend it as a buy as promoters are buying constantly from the market and I think in last couple of days they have lapped up some 1.75% shares from the market.

Well, friends I have given one more stock where one can invest at very early stage and reap benifits from it.

My call on CCAP Ltd which I gave on 4 th Dec at 41.70 touched 58 couple of days back and is still at 51 and that is a return of 40%.

Someone asked me that the stocks I recomends moves more because of market is moving up.It is not my picks that is good.If that is the case then he or anyone can pick any stocks and make millions.Anyone has that liberty to do that way.I have recomeded stocks in Mar 2009 when no one was ready to give a buy call for market or for any perticular stock.

I still say what I have written in past when market was bad and that I write it again.

It is easy to buy stocks when chips are down.It is always difficult to buy stocks when market is running or is good.When chips are down like we saw in 2008 all stocks were available at cheapest rate.L&T available at 557,Thermax available at 151 and many more like Siemens, Areva T&D,Alsthom Ltd ,Torrent Power etc ...these were A gr stocks where one has to just invest and forget...and I did recomeded in Mar 09. and one can see where they are now.So when chips are down u find everything at cheap rates but when market starts moving it becomes more and more difficult......

When market is good and when everything is running it is difficult to find stocks which are undervalued and that is what I am doing here......but if someone feels the otherway I can't help in anyway.Best thing is he should find stocks by himself and then buy it and see where it goes.I am not saying one can't do that.One can surely should be able to find stocks on his own and buy it.

There is no neccessity to visit my blog for my picks if one feels that my picks runs because market is running.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Bombay Dyeing @408 and Bombay Burmah..@ 292......

Bombay Dyeing is having lands at Worli and Dadar area which are very precious area where the price can be enormous.

Bombay Dyeing Realty launches two projects in Mumbai. The opted locations are Worli and Dadar. CNBC-TV18’s Varinder Bansal reports.

Below is a verbatim transcript of Varinder Bansal’s comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Bombay Dyeing is all set to develop residential and commercial projects. It has a landbank of nearly 90 acre in Dadar and Worli. If we translate this to per lakh square feet, it comes upto 60 lakh square feet taking FSI of nearly 1.33. The average land rate in Dadar and Worli is 10,000 per square feet. The land value is seen around Rs 6,000 crore...

Company background:

The company’s current market capital is Rs 1,600 crore. In FY09 the company made a hug loss. On textile segment, it reported a huge loss of Rs 66 crore whereas in the polyester segment the company reported a loss of Rs 73 crore. The reality arm of the company is doing very well. In FY09, the company made a profit in the realty segment worth Rs 160 crore.

Analysis says that in the coming four-five years, the realty arm could be demerged and be listed separately. Investors are enthusiastic about this particular company. Foreign brokerage has come up with a small note to some of the clients that the net asset value of this company could be valued between Rs 1,000-1,200 per share.

So has Bombay Burmah....where they have land banks and interest in Aviation Ind ,TEA Plantataion, Coffe Plantation and Rubber Plantation which is their old business .....along with that they have Laminate Flooing division which is very famous brand....Formica..

These twins of Nusli Wadia can give great returns if hold pateintly for LT......the land bank they possess in a very cream area of Mumbai, viz.Dadar and Worli( known for it's Sea face) need to keep in mind that Bombay Burmah also have land bank.......

Friday, December 11, 2009

New HOT Sector............Carbon Credit.......

Carbon credits offer us a Rs 28,000-cr opportunity

LESLIE D’MONTE New Delhi, 10 December
The Indian government has approved more than 1,400 projects as part of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) that could attract around $6 billion(Rs 28,000 crore) into the country by 2012 through sale of Certified Emission Reduction (CER) certificates, according to Environment and Forests minister Jairam Ramesh.

The National CDM Authority (NCDMA) in India has accorded Host Country Approval to 1,455 projects. These projects have seen an investment of more than $33.7 billion(Rs 1.6 lakh crore). If all these projects get registered at the CDM executive board, it will earn developers over 600 million CERs by 2012. At aconservative price of $10 per CER, the figure works out to a little over $6 billion.

“This is the potential foreign direct investment (FDI) that India stands to earn from carbon credits. In fact, 10 per cent of India’s annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be neutralised because of this,” Ramesh told Business Standard ,adding: “India may be the second-largest country in terms of the number of CDM projects (after China) but is the best in terms of implementing them.” Carbon-efficient projects in India, China, and other developing nations, however, are facing uncertainty over the new compliance rules post 2012 since the Copenhagen Agreement is expected to establish a new sectoral carbon market-crediting mechanism with focus on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in less developed countries (LDCs).

In fact, despite the promise that carbon credits hold, the number of Indian carbon offset projects proposals submitted every day to India’s national authority — that is, CDM India — has reduced approximately by 30 per cent, according to Mayank Batra, Research Analyst (Environment and Building Technologies), South Asia & Middle East, Frost & Sullivan.

Carbon credits are a key component of national and international attempts to mitigate the growth in concentrations of GHGs. One Carbon Credit is equal to a tonne of carbon. Carbon trading is an application of an emissions trading approach. There are two broad methods of earning carbon credits. Carbon Offset Credits, which consist of clean forms of energy production, wind, solar, hydro and biofuels. And Carbon Reduction Credits which comprise the collection and storage of carbon from the atmosphere through biosequestration (reforestation, forestation), ocean and soil collection and storage efforts.

“Project-financing activity has also declined, as people are looking at Copenhagen for future developments and buyers are not willing to enter into deals that have post-2012 delivery,” says Batra.

Asia is the leading supplier of CERs in the global carbon market, holding approximately 77 per cent of the share. Over 3,714 projects are developed under CDM all over Asia. Most of these are the future-installed power projects, which will have a capacity of around 58 Gw in hydro, wind, biomass, geothermal, biogas, landfill gas, solar, tidal, energy efficiency-based own generation, and coal bed/coal mine methane sectors.

India, on its part, has generated around 30 million carbon credits, and approximately 140 million are in pipeline. Around 225 Indian projects in the fields of biomass, cogeneration, hydropower, and wind power with a potential of 225 million CERs have been registered. Carbon offsets from solid waste projects, too, will see a rise. At present, the Indian solid waste management market is witnessing tremendous growth. Currently it is valued at around $155.56 million (Rs 728 crore) and is expected to grow at a rate of around 20 to 25 per cent in the next three to five years.

My Comments:

With China already annoucing the Carbon emmision cut and Obama emphasizing on clean environment ,clean energy sector will have a run and there is where Solar sector play will also come.....

I have been writing on Carbon Credit since long.I have been bullish on this sector since 2-3 yrs as if one will go by my posting at MMB and at other places then they can see that Navin Flourine was recomended way back in 2006-2007.

Now when the sector is coming to the fore, carbon credit stories will start coming up.One other share which I have recomended is Sahyadri Ind and that was also way back in 2007.Sahyadri is also gaining from CC.

There were some other stocks which I have written here but not discussed in detail like Alufluoride Ltd,IFB Agro,Tanfac etc......these are all stocks where CC story is coming up.Torrent Power which was recomended below 100 and is now over 300 means return of over 300% within a year is also gaining from CC.

I remember I gave a call on Kalyani Forge around 80 and it has almost doubled.In the same post I recomended Tinplate and it gave a right @ 45 and it is now XR and price is 62.The recomended price was around 45.

Saw yesterday that PAE, APW President,LT Foods etc were in 20% upper circuit.Ennore Coke is moving nicely and looks still promising.

There are laggards as well, like PSL,Apar,Srie Infra,etc but they will run when their time will come.

Happy to note that KPIT Cummins is in for run and so is Venus Remedies.

Heidleberg Cement,Prism Cement are 2 cements stocks which I have recomended and needs to be keep watch on.One can buy in small quantity and buy more on dips.

Kale Consultancy is looking good still and one can still take exposer here.I once recomended Indsil Hydro as well some couple of months back and is looking promising as well.

When my picks runs and people makes money I feel very happy that someone is earning from my picks.I hope readers must be benifitting from my picks .....I have tried my level best to write here with all the constrainst I have .Believe me it takes lots of my time to go through all these and coming out with a stock to recomend.Filtering all that needs to taken in account and ignoring what needs to be is a very big task.

Read my replies can get something out of it always......

When readers read a recomendation here it is the precipitation of all my hard work ....that comes after so much of due diligence on my end and some times I may err .After all I am a humanbeing ...

Thursday, December 10, 2009

Supremre Petro...cmp 27.55

I have recomending fundamentally sound stocks time and again here.
I have already recomended Supreme Petro .

I will be writing on Supreme Petro today which is a Taparia Gr co with the leader in Supreme Ind.
The earning has been increasing steadily for Supreme Petro and is paying div regularly.

The shot in the arm came when it signed an MOU with Ultrabatch s.r.l.Italy.....

Just read the MOU and I think everyone would love to buy this Co.
Actually I was surprised why there was no query on Supreme Petro?That also says the lack of due diligence from readers.
Supreme Petro comes from a great promoters and gr group.Co has buy back shares from open market as well as open offer.This also shows that Promoters are bullish on future of the co..

First read about what Supreme Petro stands for:

Supreme Petrochem Ltd (SPL), owns and operates a state-of-the art Polystyrene facility, with an installed capacity of 2,72,000 TPA located at Nagothane in Raigad District, about 100 Kms south-east of Mumbai city. The facility also includes a world class colouring and compounding facility with an installed capacity of 17000 TPA.

The Plant is based on technology from the erstwhile Huntsman Chemical Corporation (Now NOVA Chemicals) USA with basic engineering by ABB Lummus Crest, USA.
SPL is the leader in Polystyrene business in the Indian market place with a share of more than 50%. SPL is also the largest exporter of PS from India, exporting to over 80 countries around the globe. Currently SPL's exports are over 100,000 Tons/Year.

The Product range covers the entire spectrum of Polystyrene. GPPS range covers MFI of 1.6 to 20, HIPS covering both extrusion and moulding grades, ESCR, High Gloss and super High Impact grades.
The specialty range includes UL listed Ignition Retardant HIPS (both V0 and V2 rating), Mineral Filled HIPS, Micro floppy diskette grade, UV stabilised PS, Toughened PS and custom coloured PS, filled PP for automotive/appliance industry application, high quality white and gray colour masterbatches for injection molding as well as film, sheet extrusion applications.

To hasten the development of new applications and use of these materials Product Application Centre has been established, where joint programmes with customers are initiated.

SPL's reputation as a reliable supplier is due to its internationally acclaimed safety record in plant operation and total compliance with global and local standards on EHS. For these SPL has been awarded with 5 star rating from British Safety Council.
Its operations are ISO 9001:2000, ISO 14001:1996 and OHSAS 18001:1999 certified. A strong online customer feed back system on quality of products and services is the essence of SPL's quest for continuous improvement.

To strengthen the competitive position further, the company is keenly pursuing it's minor port project in district Raigad, Maharashtra to handle the import of it's raw materials.

The company has taken over management control of Shin Ho Petrochemical (India) Ltd, an existing player in Expanded Polystyrene (EPS) in Chennai, (Southern India) with an installed capacity of 6000 TPA. Name of this company is being changed to SPL Polymers Ltd and capacity expansion of the plant is under implementation. New EPS project of 60,000 TPA capacity is under implementation in Nagothane Styrenics Complex.

Read on the MOU(Memoredum of Understanding) This MOU was done on 30th Sep 09

MUMBAI (Commodity Online) : One of India’s leading Polystyrene Producer, Petrochem Ltd (SPL) Wednesday announced the signing of a MOU with Ultrabatch s.r.l, Italy’s leading manufacturer of high end additive Masterbatches.

With a key focus on agricultural films this initiative will provide Supreme Petrochem access to Ultrabatch state-of-the-art additive Masterbatches manufacturing technology.

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Analysts said this tie up will help move up the value chain in the Petrochemicals business and help India modernize its agriculture and horticulture sector.

The agricultural film business in India is in a nascent stage and is poised to grow rapidly in the next few years due to the emphasis being laid by the Government to modernize agricultural and horticulture activities.

As part of the alliance, Supreme Petrochem will also market Ultrabatch products in it’s stronghold markets like India and overseas while Ultrabatch will promote Supreme Petrochem range of Masterbatches in many parts of Europe.

The total size of the high end special/additive Masterbatches market in India is pegged at 12,000 mt per annum which is valued at Rs. 250cr and is posting a CGAR of 15%.

Speaking on signing of the MOU, Mr. M. P. Taparia, Chairman, Supreme Petrochem Ltd said, “We are delighted to tie-up with Ultrabatch and this alliance is in line with our long term objective of moving up the value chain of petrochemicals business.

This partnership will not only provide us access to key international markets but will also enhance our technical know-how in plastic processing business to cater to the growing modernization needs of the agriculture and horticulture sector.”

Mr. Peter Csergo, Director of Ultrabatch, said “We are excited with this new partnership as we are extremely impressed with the quality of Masterbatches manufactured by Supreme Petrochem. We are confident that Supreme Petrochem Masterbatches will be well accepted by quality conscious European market.”

Supreme Petrochem Ltd. (SPL) is jointly promoted by Supreme Industries Ltd., India’s largest processor of plastics and highly diversified Rajan Raheja group.

The company is also a leading producer of specialty Polystyrene compounds, Masterbatches and Poly Propylene compounds with a capacity of 25,000 TPA. The company has a manufacturing capacity of 2,72,000 TPA for Polystyrene at their plant located at 120 kms away from Mumbai.

Supreme Petrochem Limited commands over 50% market share in Polystyrene business in India and export their products to 95 countries around the globe.

Continuous development of new products and focus on high quality has enabled Supreme Petrochem Limited to command respect of customers in plastics, automotive and consumer durable industries

Ultrabatch s.r.l, 11 million euros company promoted by technocrats in Italy in 2003, possesses cutting edge technology for manufacture of high end additive Masterbatches.

Ultrabatch is a renowned manufacturer of UV stabilized Masterbatches for greenhouse films. Ultrabatch also manufactures specialty additive Masterbatches like antistatic, antiblock, antislip, desiccant, processing aids etc. for various applications at their highly sophisticated plant near Milan.

My Comments:
I have already recomended Poddar Pigments which claims to the first to have master batches in various field.No one seems to have given a hard look at Poddar Pigments....

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Buffet effect?

I discussed about Coal Mines when we read the news that Warren Buffet is buying Burlington Northern at 27% premium.This co is engaged in the freight rail transportation business .I wrote at that time that Coal will become very dear commodity and international investors need to buy stocks of Coal Mines like Rio Tinto , BHP Biliton to name a few.
The effect seems to have started......


DEVJYOT GHOSHAL Kolkata, 7 December
After a sedate year, rising coal prices could hit the coffers of importbased domestic power generators in the next year. Spot prices for the fuel at Australia’s Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, have appreciated almost 10 per cent in November and rates at China’s Qinhuangdao port, a standard for the world’s largest coal consumer, have also seen a steady increase over the last two months.

Harried by the supply-demand mismatch in Indian coal production, anumber of private sector power companies have pegged their portbased projects on overseas coal, with aspecific dependence on the Indonesian variety. These include Reliance Power, which intends on using Krishnapatnam port, Essar Power, through Salaya port, and Tata Power as well as Adani Power, both of who will use Mundra Port.

“With Indian coal mining companies being unable to provide service to power producers such as NTPC, there is a huge dependence on the international market which is expected to increase as the volumes required are just not available in the country. Although long-term arrangements are being worked out, substantial amount of coal comes through the import route at present,” an analyst with InfralineEnergy Reseach and Information said.

However, with Indonesia’s thermal coal export growth likely to see amarked slowdown, importing the fuel will become more expensive for Indian firms.

Although Indonesian exports account for over 35 per cent of the global sea-borne coal market, the ability of Indonesian producers to ramp up production for sustaining export growth could be constrained by delay and regulatory uncertainties. Also, rising demand from Indonesian power producers and cautious capex programmes by major miners there, due to the global crisis, could see the prices of Indonesian coal rising in the coming months, according to a research by Citigroup.

Supply tightness is also expected to persist globally as export growth in both Australia and South Africa will be restricted due to port and rail infrastructure development. In the latter market, growing domestic demand, too, is likely to have an impact on thermal coal prices, an analysis by AME Mineral Economics suggested.

Moreover, thermal coal prices will also lent a degree of robustness as China, a study by Barclays Capital says, is likely to remain a major importer next year on the back of mine consolidation, expectation of a strong economic growth and possibility of higher taxes. In recent weeks, an increase in heating demand in China, triggered by the harshest winter in almost six decades, have spiked coal prices at Qinhuangdao port.

“Considering almost half of the coal requirement for the new coastal power projects is to be brought in from abroad, there will definitely be an impact on power companies. Although the cost of generation will increase, passing on the burden to the consumer will be tough and it will have to be absorbed by the generators themselves,” Angel Broking analyst Rupesh Sankhe said.

Although power companies have been allocated coal blocks for captive use, exploration and production from these might not happen immediately. Also, with many firms scouting for coal assets overseas, there is a dependence on spot purchases in the short-term.

“Larger players who have already secured assets abroad are unlikely to be affected and their consumers will not be hit if global coal prices rise. However, those firms who don’t have their own mines and are dependent on the market will have to bear the brunt,” Visa Group Chairman Vishambhar Saran said.

Although India has substantial non-coking coal reserves, in the range of 230 billion tonnes, there has been an increased reliance on imported coal. In 2007-08, the country imported about 28 million tonnes of non-coking coal as compared to 8.69 million tonnes in 2003-04. However, according to Citigroup estimates, India could have a combined import demand for thermal and coking coal to the tune of 140 million tonnes per year by 2013-14.

Spot prices for the fuel have appreciated almost 10% in November

Harried by the supply-demand mismatch in Indian coal production, a number of private sector power companies have pegged their portbased projects on overseas coal, with a specific dependence on the Indonesian variety

Tata does a Nano in water purifiers .......

Tata does a Nano in water purifiers

BS REPORTER Mumbai, 7 December
The Tata group has done yet another Nano — this time in the water purifier segment. Group company Tata Chemicals today launched acompact water purifier, called ‘Swach’, which means clean in Hindi.

Two variants of the purifier, priced at Rs 749 and Rs 999, will be available by the end of this month. Four other models would also be launched in the next six to 12 months.

“This opens up a completely new market,” Tata Chemicals MD R Mukundan said here today, after Tata Group Chairman Ratan Tata launched the product. He added the intention is to sell a million units over the next 12 months.

The total water purification market, including industrial, municipal and households, is pegged at around Rs 10,000 crore. However, the share of household water purifiers in this is minimal. The cheapest water purifier in the market at present is HUL’s Pureit and Eureka Forbes’ Aquasure, which cost Rs 2,000 each.

Competitors declined to comment on the issue, saying they need time to study the product before taking aview. Tata Chemicals said

Swach complies with US Environmental Protection Agency standards and does not require running water, power or boiling. Each filter for the Tata Swach , which is packaged as a 19litre, teal and white plastic box, has a lifespan of 3,000 litres — about enough to provide a family of five drinking water for a year.

The filter uses paddy husk ash as a matrix, bound with microscopic particles of silver to kill the bacteria that cause 80 per cent of waterborne diseases, executives said. Paddy husk ash has long been known for its cleansing properties, and India produces about 20 million tonnes of it a year.

The filter was designed in aTata Consultancy Services lab, while the silver nanotechnology was added by Tata Chemicals. Titan, Tata’s watch subsidiary, made the precision machine tools to manufacture the filter.

The group’s agrochemical firm, Rallis India, will distribute the product. The farm services business, Tata Kisan Sansar, will also be roped in. Mukundan said the company has set up a production unit in Haldia, West Bengal, which has an initial production capacity of one million units per annum.

Tata Chemicals has had test runs of the product in 600 households in Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra.

Destination India.......

Destination India, say surging numbers in Japan Inc

PB JAYAKUMAR Mumbai, 7 December
India has become the most sought destination for investment by Japanese companies, next to China and ahead of other Asian countries and emerging economies like Russia, Brazil, Mexico and even the US and UK.

According to a recent survey by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) covering 620 leading Japanese manufacturing companies, 278, or 58 per cent, wanted to do business with India in the medium term, behind 74 per cent for China. The next best destination for Japanese manufacturers after India is Vietnam, way below with 31 per cent support.

The survey reflects Japanese companies mounting interests in Indian businesses, especially in sectors such as automobiles, IT, infrastructure, steel, power and pharmaceuticals.

Japan now ranks sixth in the list of foreign direct investments (FDI) in India, in a list dominated by Mauritius, which accounts for 44 per cent of cumulative FDI in India. Japanese companies invested only Rs 382 crore in India in 2006-07. This rose to Rs 3,386 crore in 2007-08 and then dipped to Rs 1,889 crore in 200809. Up to this September, the FDI inflow from Japan has touched Rs 3,857 crore, the highest ever in a year.

Besides money, Japans advanced technologies are also flowing to India. Of the 8,000plus foreign technology transfers (FTC) so far approved by the Indian government, Japan accounts for 10.88 per cent, with 879 approvals, in third position behind the US and Germany.

Takeda Pharmaceuticals, the largest drug maker in Japan, will start selling drugs in India. So is Astellas Pharma, the second largest Japanese drug maker, which started Indian operations afew months earlier. The third largest, Daiichi Sankyo, had stunned the pharma world in India last year by acquiring the largest drug maker, Ranbaxy Laboratories, for Rs 19,803 crore.

“We teamed with Ranbaxy to create a hybrid long-term model in drug business globally, leveraging the innovator capabilities of Daiichi Sankyo and Ranbaxys great generic drug-making skills and global reach,” says Tsutomu Une, chairman of Ranbaxy Laboratories and executive director of Daiichi Sankyo.

Eisai Co, another leading Japanese drug maker, is making India its major manufacturing hub and is setting up a huge facility at Visakhapatnam, with an investment of Rs 1,900 crore.

Japans business interests are obvious, as Indias pharmaceutical market is expected to reach an estimated $20 billion by 2015, with one of the highest growth rates in the world, at 12 per cent.

“Building relationships and winning their trust are the two key factors in establishing business links with Japanese companies. Then comes factors like time lines, quality and project management skills,” notes Abhijeet Ranade, associate director, PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Japan is also showing interest in Indias infrastructure development. JBIC had extended aRs 715-crore loan for L&T-MHI Boilers (LTMB) and L&T-MHI Turbine Generators, two joint venture companies being set up by Indias engineering major Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and Japans Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), to make boilers and turbines for thermal power plants at Hazira in Gujarat.

It will also fund close to Rs 20,000 crore in developing the Mumbai-Delhi rail freight corridor. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), a government arm, had provided a ¥137-billion (Rs 7,000 crore) loan for 2008 to set up drinking water facilities in Hogenakkal, Kerala and Guwahati, besides constructing the Delhi Metro.

Cumulative investments by Japanese companies in India are to the tune of over Rs 15,000 crore, about 3 per cent of the overall FDI in India, according to data from the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion.

Indias leading IT players have significant presence in Japan and majors such as IBM, Accenture, Wipro, Infosys, TCS and Patni have already set shop there to outsource work to India. Japan is the second largest IT spender in the world at over $108 billion annually, next to the US.

“At present about 40 per cent of IT work related to Japan is done in India and this may increase to 60 per cent within the next few years,” said a specialist in the global IT scene.

JFE Steel Corporation, the worlds sixth biggest and the second largest steelmaker in Japan, will invest in Sajjan Jindal-promoted JSW Steel, to pick up a minority stake, besides jointly making auto grade steel and setting up a mega integrated steel production facility in West Bengal.

“We are working out the details and JFE Steels investment in JSW Steel will happen in a few months,” said Sheshagiri Rao, joint managing director and group chief financial officer of the JSW Group.

Analysts feel Japanese companies are likely to invest above Rs 1 lakh crore in India in the coming three to five years.

Automobiles have been attracting huge investments from Japan. For two decades, Indian roads have been flooded with Maruti Suzukis. Soon, more Japanese-made small cars will debut on Indian roads, like Nissans Micra. Nissan is planning to shift the entire production of Micra, from the UK to India, to be followed by two more models. The company is setting up a plant in Bangalore, with an investment of over Rs 4,500 crore.

Similarly, Toyota Motors will also make India a hub for making its small cars. Toyota will invest over Rs 2,500 crore by 2011 to set up a second plant in Bangalore to increase its capacity by four times. Another Japanese automobile major, Honda Motors, will launch its small car in India by 2011.

Japanese truck maker Hino Motors is also planning to sell over 700 trucks in India this financial year and will set up a manufacturing unit within three years, say sources. And tyre maker Bridgestone is setting up a new plant at Pune with an investment of over Rs 2,000 crore.

"For sustainable growth of the Indian economy, India and Japan have to move forward in environmental cooperation by making most use of Japanese environmental technologies and financing,” says Takashi Hongo, JBIC’s Special Advisor and head of its environment finance engineering department.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Credit Suisse says .............

Positive on India for next three years: Credit Suisse
Published on Tue, Dec 08, 2009 at 11:35 Updated at Tue, Dec 08, 2009 at 15:55 Source : CNBC-TV18

Robert Parker of Credit Suisse says market activity is low despite an uptrend. "We are staying out of markets for the time being and will stay on the sidelines till December-end."
On India, Parker says the upside in the Indian market is limited in the short-term. However, he remains positive on India with a three-year view.

According to him, foreign flows to India via exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may rise. "ETFs will lead to higher volatility," he added.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Robert Parker on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Do you sense any kind of hesitation in global market participants or do you think we can still have a strong end to the year?

A: If you look at activity in markets despite the fact that we have still got reasonably strong equity markets over the last week or two we have recovered very strongly from the setback that the markets went through over the adverse news on Dubai, despite that uptrend in markets, activity levels are low and there is clear evidence that some investors, including ourselves, are actually standing back from the market somewhat. We are not exiting but we are taking lower risk, more defensive profile. Certainly our plan is to do that through most of December and January.

Q: Once this phase is done, what is your take on the critical first quarter of 2010?

A: The first point to make is that the last gross domestic product (GDP) numbers we had were significantly stronger than the consensus. I would add that I thought the consensus was too pessimistic. The positive is that GDP growth in the first half of next year should maintain this sort of level. Our house forecast for growth in India over next year is 7%. If we are wrong, we could see a number closer to 8%.
So my point is the macroeconomic background for the year as a whole will remain positive. The second positive is the probable of a very strong positive generation of corporate earnings growth in India in 2010 relative to 2009. My only concern is that in Q1 of 2010, we may go through a pause in global equity markets. Specifically to India, one area to watch, maybe the reaction of markets, which clearly the valuation levels are much less compelling than they were six-months ago but how the market might react to a tightening of interest rates.
One of the features of the first quarter of next year will be a number of countries including India and China, which are likely to raise interest rates albeit slowly but that is going to put a cap on the market in the first month or two of the year.

Q: Is that a big concern though to you, the valuations we are currently trading at?

A: It would be very nice to go back into the market at much lower levels and the first point to make is that we turned – as most of your viewers would know – very positive on the Indian market in March 2009. We have maintained that positive stance up until recently – I wouldn’t say we are negative – we are just being a little bit cautious in the short-term.
One of the factors obviously for that caution is that we are looking at valuation levels, which are not as high as they were in the previous bull market but certainly we have come a long way, fast. The positive on valuations is that those valuations should be supported by strong corporate earnings growth in 2010.

Q: So tactically then as 17,000 would you be a buyer or a seller right now?

A: The answer to that is that I would be a buyer if we have a reversal to 15,000-16,000. The upside in the short-term in the Indian market is now somewhat limited. What you will see at least over the next few months is a lot of investors like ourselves being little bit more cautious sitting on the sidelines, looking for re-entry points. The risk of being wrong is that the market continues to power ahead but for a number of the factors I mentioned, I do think the upside is limited in the short-term, although I must emphasize that taking a 2-3 year view, our approach to the Indian market remains in the medium-term very positive indeed.

Q: How would you gauge liquidity interest though right now? Is there a nature to it in that, is it mostly being driven by exchange-traded fund (ETF) money or are long only funds also looking at India?

A: One point to make in the asset management industry worldwide is the increasing popularity of ETFs. Increasingly, you are seeing not just retail investors but also institutional investors who let us say make a positive allocation decision on Asia and within Asia on India, rather than having an actively managed portfolio they would just go and buy an ETF.
Now I think you will see one feature of markets certainly for the next 2-3 years will be the increased popularity of ETFs and in terms of the Indian market, I think the foreign capital flows via ETFs will be an increasing feature of that market.( Now here the experts says that the flow will be slowed down or even reversed!This is totally opposite view.....Who to believe?I will go with Credit Suisse....) The bad news is that because ETFs tend to be very liquid, it might result of increased volatility in the market.( I have no problem with any type of volatility)..

My Commnets:
This interview has totally ruled out any apprehesion on anyones mind.
I have pasted this interview because Credit Sussie was among the first foreign brokarage who said that they were bullish on India when cheaps were down.
I have seen people arguing that experts can also makes mistakes and we should not follow them blindly but what about our mistakes.
Who will tell the mistake we make?We are ready to become a judge of others but when someone else points out our mistake it is very hard to digest.
And in that I also come.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Is market overvalued?......

I use to see that there is lots of discussion going on whether the market is overvalued or has got saturated or very less steam left to go up.
The reasons given and discussed are ,the EPS of Nifty and P/E of Nifty.Analyst and experts, some so called expert feels that at 17k we are at saturation point and there is no way market can go up and hence people are not ready to put money in the market.
One of my friend asked me whether what he thinks is correct?I asked what he thinks and he said that 80% of the stocks are saturated and I said what your mind say is correct.
I can't tell him what I feel and then after saying market has not got saturated I will have to justify my stand giving all world of reasons and that will take my lots of time and energy as well.Have I gone mad to give him answer that I don't feel so?
But what I do not understand is why experts feel that nifty is at 900 eps and hence 19 p/e is good enough to decide that market is saturated.
How many people plays in Nifty?How many investors invest in only Nifty listed stocks?There is big world over and above Nifty and people are not able to come out from it.Barring nifty and sensex there is a big big gr of stocks and they are still going cheap.They keeps in singing the tune of Nifty and sensex.
Moreover what they forget is market discounts future and not present and hence taking market call on present nifty earnings makes no sense.So can it be concurred that when sensex will touch 21k or nifty 61oo then market will return back and that will be the end ?
What needs to be seen is the retail participation.It is still not there.There are still scepticism lingering on them and unless that scepticism is not gone market will continue to go up.Unless the euphoria do not come market cannot correct heavily.
What needs to be seen is where are those 52 week highs which we saw in Jan 2008?Is the 52 week high page in ET becoming bigger?Then where is the madrush?
As I have said many times here, market may try to touch 21k this year or by early next year.Seems 19k is on cards this year.Let us see ....
But sure this is not the time to be sceptic.Buy where you see the value.
Stocks like Laffans Petro, India Glycols,Ennore Coke, PAE ,Patel Airtemp,Max India,KPIT Cummins , Surya Pharma, Jupiter Bio etc which I have been recomending here recently and since the start of year are looking good.There are some laggards as well but no one knows when they start running.
I have just read couple of days back that in next 3 years there will be an allocation of Rs 1,10,000 cr road project.Now that is HUGE.One has to just take clue from it.
Lots of work is still tobe done on Infrastructure front.We needs international standard PORTS,AIRPORTS,ROADS, HOUSINGS,COMMERCIALS , DAMS, POWER GENERATOR COS AND what not......karne ke liye bahut hai.....friends who has come back from a visit of China says that China is doing extremly good and we are even no match to China leave developed countries like USA, France, UK etc....

Saturday, December 5, 2009

JSW Energy....Wonderful IPO coming at cheap rate....

I usaully do not discuss IPO but this perticiular IPO is looking excellent to me and hence I can't resist giving a call on that.....
JSW Energy is already a profit making Co and coming from a very wellknown and well managed gr , O P Jindal Gr....
One should apply for this issue and if do not get allotment in IPO then can buy on listing as well if it is available uptill 50% premium, means at around 165.....on listing.....what more I like is, it is 10 paid up....try to compare valuations of other power co with JSW Energy....

JSW Energy fixes IPO price band at Rs 100-115/sh
Published on Fri, Dec 04, 2009 at 22:10 Updated at Sat, Dec 05, 2009 at 12:16 Source :

JSW Energy, a part of Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Group, has fixed the price band between Rs 100 and Rs 115 per equity share for an initial public offering (IPO) of equity shares of Rs 10 each for cash at a price to be decided through a 100% book-building process and aggregating up to Rs 2,700 crore. The issue will open for subscription on December 7, 2009 and close on December 9, 2009.
A discount of Rs 5 to the issue price determined pursuant to completion of the book building process will be offered to retail individual bidders.
The issue has been graded by CARE as CARE IPO Grade 4 indicating above average fundamentals.
It intends to utilise the issue proceeds for partially financing construction and development of the Identified Projects aggregating to 2,790 MW in capacity & 400 KV transmission project and mining venture (at cost of Rs 2,142.53 crore) and repayment of corporate debt (Rs 470 crore).(corporate repayment of loans for the tune of Rs 470 cr....Wow!...profit will be more after the issue...)
For the year ended March 31, 2009, the company has reported profit after tax of Rs 578.09 crore on total income of Rs 1,593.98 crore. For the half year ended September 2009, it has posted profit after tax of Rs 294.62 crore on total income of Rs 926.28 crore.(This is a 30% NPM....Wow!)
At least 60% of the issue will be allocated on a proportionate basis to qualified institutional buyers (QIBs), out of which 5% (excluding Anchor Investor Portion) shall be available for allocation on a proportionate basis to Mutual Funds only. The remainder shall be available for allocation on a proportionate basis to all QIBs, including Mutual Funds, subject to valid Bids being received from them at or above the Issue Price.
If at least 60% of the Issue cannot be allocated to QIBs, then the entire application money will be refunded forthwith. Further, not less than 10% of the Issue will be available for allocation on a proportionate basis to Non-Institutional Bidders and not less than 30% of the Issue will be available for allocation on a proportionate basis to Retail Individual Bidders, subject to valid Bids being received at or above the Issue Price.
Incorporated in 1994, JSW Energy is a part of the JSW Group, headed by Mr.
Sajjan Jindal, which is in turn a part of the O.P. Jindal Group. JSW Energy Ltd. is an established energy company with 860 megawatts, or MW, of operational generating capacity and 2,790 MW of generating capacity in the construction or implementation phase, 135 MW of which has been commissioned. In addition, it has power generation projects at an early stage under development with a proposed combined installed capacity of 7,740 MW. It is one of the early entrants in the power trading business. Its goal and strategy is to become a leading full-service integrated power company in the Indian power sector with presence across the value chain.
The book running lead managers to the Issue are JM Financial Consultants Private Limited, Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited, ICICI Securities Limited, IDFC-SSKI Limited, J P Morgan India Private Limited, SBI Capital Markets Limited, Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited and IDBI Capital Market Serviced Limited.