Sunday, July 31, 2011

To The Prez of USA.......Mr Barack Obama...An Appeal ..look at Medical System

Come Aug. 3, just who will get paid?
That's the new worry coursing throughout Washington as the contentious debt ceiling negotiations hurtle towards Aug. 2, the deadline beyond which President Barack Obama has warned that the government risks running short of money to pay all of its bills.
If the government has to choose which of its many obligations to honor and which to delay, who will it pay -- and, more importantly, who will it be forced to cut off?
Chinese bondholders? Social Security recipients? Medicaid beneficiaries? Veterans or FBI agents? With the clock ticking, it's no longer a theoretical question.
"We are running out of time," the president said in a statement at the White House Friday morning, little more than 12 hours after House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) was forced to call off a vote on his two-stage bill to trim $2.5 trillion from the budget in the face of stiff opposition from conservatives. The House finally passed the bill Friday evening, but it was quickly rejected by the Senate, where Democratic leaders are preparing their own rival bill. Congressional leaders and the White House are expected to spend much of the weekend wrangling over the competing proposals.
Treasury officials have drawn up emergency plans to prioritize payments if Congress doesn't vote to raise the government's borrowing ability above the current $14.3 trillion level before the maximum is hit. Without a deal, Treasury will have no choice but to start to triage between its many payments.
It won't be easy. The federal government makes payments to some 80 million individuals, companies and entities every month. While it takes in roughly a couple of hundred billion dollars every month in revenues, it spends tens of billions more. Some 40% of the current budget is paid with borrowed money.
"A de facto shutdown of the government is the real threat, not default, " says Greg Valliere, chief political strategist for the Potomac Research Group.
The key question is what date the government will hit the current debt ceiling. That's when it will no longer be able to borrow to make up the difference between revenues and expenditures. That's why Aug. 2 looms as a critical deadline -- a big Social Security payment is due the following day. In mid-July, analysts at Barclays Capital estimated that Treasury would have only $30 billion in cash on hand the morning of Aug. 3 — not enough to pay the $22 billion owed to Social Security recipients plus the additional $10 billion owed to others that day.
While higher-than-expected revenues in recent days could give the government a few more days wiggle room beyond that, the trajectory is clear.
"Without an agreement, the only question is when, not if, we'll run short of cash," says Jay Powell, a former Treasury official under President George H.W. Bush who has analyzed the issue in a report for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-based think tank. "There's just no way to pay for everything."
The triage could begin as early as Aug. 3. One possibility is that Treasury would simply pay the bills in the order they come in. But most observers believe such a move would be too politically risky; the administration is far more likely to make sure Social Security recipients and other politically-sensitive constituencies get paid.
So who would be the winners and who would be the losers?
Start with the math: between Aug. 3 and the end of the month, the Treasury will pocket an estimated $172 billion in taxes and other revenues, according to Powell. Over that same time, it has to shell out roughly $307 billion in payments for everything from Social Security and veterans' health care benefits to money for highway construction and federal workers' salaries.

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, right, and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy of Calif., left, listen as House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Va., center, speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, July 28, 2011. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, right, and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy of Calif., left, listen as House …
Given that huge gap, the administration would essentially have to decide who to stiff, at least temporarily. Here's a look at how the choices could play out:

INTEREST ON US TREASURY BONDS: One thing on which all analysts agree: Holders of U.S. Treasury bonds, whether they are hedge fund managers in New York, retirees in Florida, or central bankers in China, will have first dibs on the remaining cash. They would get paid before all other creditors. That's the only way the U.S. can avoid a potentially disastrous default on its bonds and a serious downgrading of its credit rating.
So the first $29 billion—the estimated interest payments Treasury owes for the month of August--will go straight to bondholders. That would leave Uncle Sam with $143 billion in cash to cover another $278 billion in bills coming due in August.
SOCIAL SECURITY: Another point of accord between Democrats and Republicans: no one, but no one, wants to see TV screens fill with interviews of outraged seniors. Nor is anyone foolish enough to want to face the political consequences of cutting them off. So count on Social Security payments to take second priority when it comes to cutting checks.
For August, Uncle Sam owes Social Security payments of $49 billion. Draw that down, and Uncle Sam would have only $94 billion left to take care of the remaining $299 billion in expenditures.
MEDICARE/MEDICAID: Now throw in Uncle Sam's biggest health care obligations, Medicare and Medicaid. They will account for another $50 billion in August. Some analysts suggest Medicare would be fully funded, while the federal government could try to cut back on the Medicaid payments it owes to the states. But that remains to be seen.
If the administration does fund all of those health care obligations, then Uncle Sam would be down to only $44 billion in cash, to divide among the $179 billion needed in August to fund the military, social safety net expenditures such as unemployment insurance and housing aid for the poor—not to mention the entire rest of the federal government.
MILITARY SPENDING: Cutting off veterans or soldiers could be just as politically poisonous. However, those costs are relatively small: $2.9 billion each for Veterans Affairs programs and pay for active duty military members. They are likely to be paid.
The big expenditure comes in payments to the thousands of defense contractors across the country: Uncle Sam will owe defense contractors some $31.7 billion in the month of August. Many of them could see payments delayed until the crisis is resolved.
"Treasury will be able to prioritize within defense," says Daniel Clifton, who oversees policy research for Strategas Research Partners. "They build battleships that take years to complete; can they really argue they need that payment today?"
SOCIAL SAFETY NET: Juggling the programs aimed at supporting the unemployed, the poor and the sick will be tough; many could see cuts as the money runs out. Unemployment insurance benefits will cost some $12.8 billion for the month, while food aid for the poor would run to $9.3 billion. Housing aid programs for August would be another $6.7 billion. Grants for tuition and special education would run another $14 billion.
Fund all those programs, on top of Social Security, Medicare and interest payments, the BPC's Powell points out, and there would be virtually nothing left for the vast majority of defense spending. The Administration would have to choose: protect the safety net, and much of the military will go unfunded. Pay for defense, and many on the home front will suffer.
Moreover, whatever the choices the White House makes to divvy up the dollars between military and social spending, neither leaves much room for funding the rest of the government. Salaries and benefits alone for federal employee would cost another $14.2 billion in August — one reason many could find themselves furloughed if push comes to shove.
"There's just no way to avoid the pain," says the BPC's Powell. "If you opt to pay for Social Security, Medicare and a few other priorities, there's no money left over for a Justice Dept, a Defense Dept., an Energy Dept. or most other things."
Jane Sasseen is the editor-in-chief of politics and opinion at Yahoo! News.

My Comments:

I have been in USA for 3 yrs by now.I read from the above and from one of the daily newspaper, USAToday, that the Medicare is taking toll on FED.
People in US has got big longitivity of life and hence there are more older people and hence the payment of Social Security ( we call Pension in India) and Medicare expenses is on up as naturally the health problem is more in older people.
But as per the reports the biggest outchequer is Medicare and that is going to be obvious because the expense is so high in Medical field.
I just take some examples.
1) A Knee operation cost $93,000.
2) An open Heart surgery cost $1,50,000 to $2,00,000.
3)An Abscess cost $2000.

Now here is the catch.
For any Medicare or Medicad for senior citizen , government has to dole out the money as they have collected those money from these veterans when they worked for whole life but those money deducted were not enough or part of those money were used for Iraq war or fighting with Al Quida and finding Bin laden etc etc.
Now coming back to the Medical expenses, I think the cost of any medical treatment is highest in the world.From the above example we can say that it is on higher side.
If one has to go through to the Knee operation in India it should not cost more then $6000 and for open heart surgery it should not cost more then $12000.
For the abscess it should not cost more then $25 .
Now in US what happens is the cost is so high that with older population becoming larger and larger it will be very hard to fulfill the health cost.
So the thing that needs to be addressed is take a look at the medical charge for any treatment.Someoen is making a huge pie from this sector and they ought not need to have that bigger a pie for it but actually it is putting a huge burden on FED.
One old lady having a Knee surgery was having a headache and nurse came down and gave her 2 Tylenol and the cost they showed  was $18 .Now Tylenol cost is just 10 cent and the cost taken is $18.Now being an Old lady the who cost of treatment was taken care by FED through Medicare and that amt is doled out by FED .
So in simple word we can say that FED paid $18 for 2 Tylenol to the Hospital .Now this is just a simple example.If we take the example of that same old lady who went through the Knee operation which cost was $93,000 that also was paid by the FED.
I have an appeal for Prez Obama that first address the Medical system.Untill you do not address it the burden will keep on going up .
Now for looking where to cut the expenses and where not to White house experts knows it better.
But Mr Prez, if USA has to survive from debt crisi the whole Medical System needs the rehauling and other measures to trim down the expenses needs to take care of otherwise US will be on the verge of default.
Untill the disparity between the rest of the world and USA remains in the field of Medical Treatment nothing is going to help US.
A person working at a Minimum wage at $7.25/hr how will he be able to pay for Health Insurance?And in that case something happens , and when the Bill comes of thousands of dollars and he/she can't pay that bill, who pays for that?
Someone pays.Either FED or philanthropic institution.Somewhere the money is paid from and it is going in the pocket of medical system.

Saturday, July 30, 2011

GTL Infra and GTL Ltd.....closed higher...

Market reacted positive on offer of VIOM in GTL Infra Ltd as both the gr Co listed on browses closed almost 10% higher then previous day.
Heard that even some DII's has taken substaintial stake in it at this price and I feel that at Rs 15 and at Rs 74 for GTL Infra and GTL Ltd respectively both are looking good.
Market giving thumbs up to both the Co also says that my analysis was correct and am in line with what market thinks.

Friday, July 29, 2011

Viom Offers 7,500 cr to Acquire Rival GTL Infra .................

But GTL promoters are learnt to be eyeing valuations of over . 10,500 crore


Telecom tower company Viom Networks has made a . 7,500-crore offer to buy out its competitor GTL Infrastructure, two executives directly aware of the development told ET. Talks are still on as there is a valuation mismatch — GTL promoters are learnt to be eyeing valuations of over . 10,500 crore (excluding its debt), the executives quoted above said. They also added that earlier round of talks, held during first week of July, had not made any headway as Viom was not keen on the merger option being proposed by bankers. Viom had made this offer to GTL last week.
SBI Capital Markets is advising Global Group, the parent company of GTL and GTL Infrastructure, on the possible sellout or stake dilution. Viom’s CEO Arun Kapoor declined to comment when asked specifically if the company had made a . 7,500-crore offer to GTL. Viom is 53% controlled by the Tatas. Kolkatabased Kanorias, founders of Srei, have 27% stake and foreign institutional investors hold the remaining 20%. The founder and promoter of Global
Group Manoj Tirodkar refused to comment, but the company, in an e-mail reply to an ET query, said: “There are many aspirants who want to acquire our assets or partner with us. Viom has not entered into any formal discussion with us and hence the question of . 7,500 crore or . 10,500 crore being the offer value does not arise. The fact that players like Viom continue to approach and show their interest in GTL Infra is a tribute to the business that we have built.”
GTL’s debt is estimated to be around . 14,000 crore. The executives quoted above also clarified that Viom’s offer to GTL was subject to two conditions. First, the Global Group must reduce its debt in its tower arms to about . 7,500 crore post the restructuring. Viom is of the view that GTL cannot sustain a higher debt based on its current cash flows. Next, Viom has also said that its offer is valid only for a limited period as it shares the view that its competitor’s valuations will erode further if the company fails to meet its service level agreements with respect to its clients, they added.
But an executive close to GTL admitted that Viom had made ‘several offers’ while adding that a deal would be possible only if the offer was ‘valuable to the company and its lenders’. “GTL has also been approached by two private equity players and other options are available. Post the restructuring, GTL has already said that it can service debt of . 9,500 crore from its current cash flows,” this executive added. Since June 17, both GTL and GTL Infrastructure stocks have seen panic selling. The combined market cap of GTL and
GTL Infra was . 6,154.89 crore as on June 17, 2011, but this has crashed by 67.35% to . 2009.6 crore as on July 27, 2011, wiping out about . 4,145.29 crore of investors’ wealth. GTL is also undergoing a corporate debt restructuring, which is slated to reduce its debt to around . 10,000 crore. Both GTL and GTL Infrastructure have roped in SBI Capital Markets as the advisor for their restructuring exercise and also to dispel investor concerns following the recent crash in its markets.
Deal Contours

My Comments:

I read the above news in ET today.
Now let us do the analysis.
GTL Infra Mcap is Rs 1316 as of now and GTL  Ltd Mcap is Rs 663 cr at the current market price.
I remember , someone asked me that whether GTL is a buy or not at the level then prevailing at Rs 140 as it has come down from Rs 462 and I very clearly said that even at Rs 40 I will not buy GTL Ltd.Those who went ahead and bought GTL Ltd must have made a loss.
Remember, when stock starts the downward journey, it keep on falling and perticularly when there is negative news with the fall it invariably fell way below our expectation.
Market always do like that.People keeps on thinking how much more it can fall and it keeps on going down and down defying all logic and when I replied to that query that was what in my mind.At that time who asked me this query, should have not liked my opinion but ultimately I was right.There is nothing to get dejected about it nor I am writing to prove myself.
Same thing happened with Satyam Computer and when it went below 20 it was time to buy but at that time no one listened to me.
Coming back to the above news, as I wrote the Mcap of GTL Infra is Rs 1316 cr and GTL Ltd is
Rs 663 cr and if we add both Mcap then also still it comes to around Rs 2000 cr.
Now VIOM is offering Rs 7500 for GTL Infra stake  but has certain condition like trimming down the debt from Rs 14,000 cr to half at Rs 7500 cr.
In the above text it is written that the debt can be reduced to Rs 10k cr but Mr.Manoj Tirodkar is asking for more valuation of Rs 10,000 cr instead of Rs 7500 cr and I think that will be difficult to be achieved in the present scenario.
So a Co having a Mcap of Rs 1316 cr is fetching Rs 7500 cr and hence this makes a deal worth over 5 times then present valuation barring reducing the debt to half.
Let us see how market reacts on this news and how much GTL Infra and GTL Ltd moves up.
Well, these type of picks are rather good for MF managers who are happy with 30-40% return  in a year or two.It may also happen that as I wrote the offer from VIOM of 5 times value then the present Mcap can give 100% return within a year or even more in 2 yrs as well.It all depends upon how the market is going to play the game.We can just take a call as per our comfort but looks like GTL Infra and GTL Ltd looks now on a healthy trajectory due to the asset of Telecome Towers it possess.
I would like to mention that SREI Infra is inching slowly and steadily up and is at Rs 48.The stock has gained Rs 10 from Rs 38 to Rs 48 when the market trend is down.
I have already wrote my liking for SREI Infra here time and again.


Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Open Offer for UTV coming at Rs 1000!

Walt Disney Offers to Buy Out UTV

Co wants to buy rest 49.56% stake & delist co in a deal that may be valued at 2,000 cr


Walt Disney Co plans to buy the rest of UTV Software Communications (UTV) it does not own and delist the company in a deal potentially valued at $454 million, or . 2,014 crore, as the US entertainment giant seeks to expand its presence in Bollywood, media and gaming.
The Burbank, California-based company, which owns 50.44% of UTV Software, said in a statement it would buy out public shareholders at a price not exceeding . 1,000 per share, an 11% premium to Monday’s stock closing price of . 901.8. The buyout will give Walt Disney control over five businesses. UTV Software, a holding company, makes and distributes movies, broadcasts a clutch of movie and entertainment channels, produces content for television and other digital media, and also has a presence in gaming. It operates through a number of subsidiaries, including movie production under UTV Motion Pictures, Indiagames, and UTV Global Broadcasting
that broadcasts entertainment and movie channels. All these will become part of Walt Disney’s Indian unit once the transaction is completed.
Following the news of the buyout —one of the biggest in India’s media and entertainment industry—the company’s stock closed at . 950.45, or 5.39% higher, on the Bombay Stock Exchange on Tuesday.
Disney said it would also buy the 20%
stake held by promoter
Rohinton (Ronnie) Screwvala and his associates if it garnered enough shares to delist the company. It, however, said delisting of a public company in India was a long process and could take several months to complete.
“Given the multiple stages and the nature of the process, a successful outcome is uncertain,”
the company added. The entertainment behemoth also said if the delisting went through, Screwvala would cease to be the chairman and managing director of UTV Software Communications and become the managing director of The Walt Disney Company India, responsible for overseeing Indian businesses of the Disney Group. Shows Potential of Indian Market
Mahesh Samat, currently managing Disney’s assets in India, will become chief operating officer, reporting to Screwvala. The statement did not say what would happen if the response to the open offer was insufficient to delist the company. Disney’s statement merely said if the delisting was unsuccessful, it would “consider the full range of strategic options”.
Farokh Balsara, partner & national leader, media & entertainment practice, at consultant Ernst & Young, said the deal illustrated the potential of the Indian movie and entertainment market. “It is an endorsement of the potential international companies see in the robust Indian entertainment and media sector. UTV and Disney are similar businesses and the acquisition
will help Disney synergise its Indian operations. These are some of the bets international companies are making in the fastgrowing Indian market.” India is the world's thirdlargest TV market trailing China and the US with nearly 138 million TV households, according to a March 2011 report by KPMG and industry lobby FICCI. The media and entertainment industry is likely to expand 14% annually until 2015, with segments such as TV, gaming and animation expected to outpace the industry growth, the report said.
My Comments:
I am glad to see that UTV is valued at Rs 1000 by Walt Disney and they want to delist at same price.
I wrote this FIGURE  wayback when I first wrote about this UTV around Rs 300.
What else I need to testify my experiance and analysis?I am not an MBA nor have any finance degree and still I am able to predict the true value of a stock much much early then the market discover it.
I am not writing anything more then this.............leave it to my readers to be the judge here......

Friday, July 22, 2011

Navin Flourine superb results ..........

Navin Flourine has come out with superb results as per my expectation for June 2011.
The sales went up from 86 cr to 195 cr and the bottomline has zoomed from 15 cr to 60 cr giving a stupendous eps of 61 for qr ended June 2011 and remember Mar qr eps was 40 which was looking impossible to achieve in next qr , means June qr but Navin Flourine has done that .That is called exponential growth.
That growth is visible in India Glycols as well. From a loss of 7 cr the Co made a profit of 26 cr in June and that too with an Int outgo of 27 cr which is equal to 10 eps per qr and if imagine India Glycols becomes debt free what can be the EPS ?
That is the magic of Carbon Credit as I wrote recently that the flow of CC will start from this qr onwards.
The carbon credit sales has jumped from 14 cr to 65 cr.That is huge.
I am glad to see my assumption coming out true.That is I call forseeing things.I am not proudy of that, but that is what I want my readers to learn.
I again reiterate that same thing will happen in India Glycols which was lingering at 142 yesterday uptill 2 pm  and then a sudden jump from there to 165 odd and is still holding that level.
I am also confident that same thing like Navin Flourine will happen in India Glycols.They will put more sales on CC in future as they are striving for going green.
I expect the results of India Glycols will keep surprising market like Navin Flourine.
Yashraj Cont today closed at 45 giving a 60% return in 4 days.
IFB Ind closed positive at 141 and India Glycols and IFB Ind both looks good still to me.
IFB Ind, India Glycols, Navin Flourine, Essar Oil are such stocks that if one have 100-200 or 300 shares and can hold for LT can give tremendous return.
I gave a call again on Navin, IFB Ind and India Glycols very recently.I donno how many acted on it.I clearly gave hint that these shares were moving even before the market midcap rally starts.
All the 3 stocks were moving ahead of market which was giving us a clue that something good is coming in these counter but no one wants to do anything.
One can find these 200 DMA and 50 DMA chart on the price quote at bse site of that perticular stock.
There is a "Fundamental" tag on the top of the price quote, click on that and it will show whether the stock is moving over the 200 DMA or not.
How many here try to click all the tab on the quote of any stock at bse site?
Click one by one and see what bse is giving and learn to understand the stock and stock market.
One need to be mad with it.One need to have the passion for it.One need to have the passion for learning things.Untill that happens you will have to depend on others calls.

I would like to mention here my call on UTV around 300 which is breaking new highs everyday and now at Rs 875.I remember I wrote that it will touch 1000 and then lateron will get split and again move up.
Now the target of 1000 is not far off just 125 away and I have no doubt in my mind that it will get achieved.
Another stock I would like to mention is Venus Remedies which was up by rs 33 today and closed at Rs.253 which I feel is again giving us a bullish signal.After making a low of 176 in mid june which again one can see from the chart given at bse site, it is in constant upmove and is moving up and up.I have been bullish on Venus Remedies for long and looks like time has come for this stock to move up.Venus is a wonderful Pharma Co which is attaining new milestones one after another getting the patent in EU etc.I am seeing a bright future for Venus Remedies.The stock lacked high discounting a Pharma Co should get because of the Co not able to pay the FCCB.Otherwise a Pharma Co having an eps of 50 should quote at around atleast Rs 750 and not less.But as was declared those problem was taken care of and market has started looking up to this counter in a positive way and should trade higher and higher.

It looks like today was my

I just came upon the June results of KPIT Cummins and I was surprised to see it.Ofcourse that was a pleasant surprise.
The sales went up from 105 cr last year to 150 cr this year and the NP went up from Rs 6.44 cr to 19 cr , means 300% increase in NP.
KPIT was my stock of the year in 2009 maybe but as usual I was always ahead of market and predicting the growth which comes lateron.I recomended KPIT in Oct 2009 and after almost 2 yrs it has started showing the real class.After 2 yrs Chrys Capital decided to take stake in it .So that is how my calls are.....Fundamentally great but takes time to prosper.

I also feel that it is time for PSL Ltd to run as well in the next bull run which many must be holding it and cursing me .Let us see what happens.

I am now awaiting the results of IFB Ind and the runup says it is going to come good.I read at MMB where one boader wrote that the 2011 AR says that IFB Ind has added new capacities and modernize the plants which I think will add up in the sales and NPM.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Flex Foods Ltd and some other calls.......

Flex Food was recomended way back in 2008.It is constantly giving 20% dividend since last 3 yrs.
The reason I am writing on it today is the Co has declared June qr results and that come out excellent.
The sales is up from 11 cr to 13 cr last year and NP went up from 48 lacs to 2.12 cr and that is a huge jump in NPM.The NP has gone up over 4 times.
Maybe Flex Foods now needs a second look .
Other stock I would like to mention is India Glycols.It has come out with excellent results too for June qr.India Glycols has remained my old favourite stock and one can have a look at it as well.

Read the Chairman message:
<><><><><><><><><><><><> <><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><><> <><><><><><><><><><><><>
Note from the Chairman
We believe in green
Welcome to the India Glycols website.
India Glycols is a leading public listed company that manufactures bulk, specialty and performance chemicals and natural gums, spirits and nutraceuticals. It is an ISO 9001, ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001 and ISO 22000 certified company.
Our company holds the distinction of being the only green petrochemical company of its kind. It is the first and only company in the world to have commercialised the production of ethylene oxide, its derivatives and glycols from renewable agricultural resources, namely molasses or sugar cane.
We believe in green. Not only have we adopted several green technologies, we continuously work to evolve new green methods, materials, innovative technologies and systems to meet the specific requirements of global clients.
Our aim is to be at the forefront of efforts against global threats such as global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, resource depletion, bioaccumulation and persistent chemicals.
To do this, we have implemented several green methodologies, including:
New solutions and products made via the green route, ie, from raw materials that are renewable resources
Novel technologies, including super critical technology for nutraceuticals. We use super critical carbon dioxide as a green solvent during extraction processes
Novel catalysts and process improvements
Separation and post-refining technologies
Energy-efficient, renewable energy and water conservation projects
A focus on improving sustainability, by looking at energy usage, carbon footprints and life cycle assessment of products
At India Glycols, we work towards lowering our impact on the planet by reducing:
Use of raw materials and non-renewable resources (for instance, by recycling carbon dioxide used as a solvent)
Product toxicity
Wastes and emissions during manufacture
Risk and hazards from manufacturing
Environmental impact of products
Even our administrative processes are green; we have implemented SAP ERP solutions to achieve paperless work and minimise time frames and paper usage.
We believe that the green movement is on the rise with more and more people joining it each year. We are proud of being a green petrochemical company with innovative technologies and a vision of long-term sustainability.
“India Glycols relies on breakthroughs in green technologies. "

That is the reason I like India Glycols the most.They have been even alloted with CC for next 10 yrs of over 1.10 lacs carbon credit/year  which will go higher in future.

Navin Flourine has given high eps for Mar qr of 40 due to carbon credit which was missing in last 2 qr last year.
And as the CC has been now approved , Navin will keep on making huge NP from now onwards according to me.
Navin Flourine has taken stake of 51% of a UK Co named Manchester Organic Ltd which is dealing in Flouro Chemicals.Navin is now diverting in CRAMS as well.The buy back of Navin Flo was taken last year at Rs 400 and the deal of UK Co for 51% stake is worth 28 cr which says that Navin is a Cash rich Co now.
The amt they put in Maf Ind and which was written off to the tune of 60 cr , Navin will get it back and that will add to the reserve because Maf Ind has made a deal with Ajay Piramal Gr for 600 cr for land they possess and hence even Maf Ind needs to have a second look.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011


I gave the call on YASHRAJ CONTAINEURS LTD. in mid dec 2009 at 24.
Today I saw that it was in 20% UC and I read in annocement that it will be soon coming out from the BIFR.
Investor needs to remember that market always fancies turnaround candidate.The valuation market gives to turnaround stocks are always high.
I know many must be thinking about what was the fate of YASHRAJ CONTAINEURS LTD. after remaining dorment for almost a year and a half.But that is market and that is how my calls are.
They remains still for 1year and more but when it starts moving it actually RUNS from circuit to circuit.
Those who gets tired are at loss.I don't say all my calls are like that .Some even do not run at all.It is all LUCK.
Try to find stocks which are moving higher then 200 DMA.200 DMA is a year high average of a year ( Daily moving average)and if they are moving ahead of that price then I think these stocks will outperform market when the midcap rally will actually start.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Happy days coming for Cals Ref?

Cals Refineries’ proposed petroleum refinery at Haldia in West Bengal may be closer to reality following an out-of-court settlement reached with the German company contracted with supplying equipment for the unit.
The project was to be set up with equipment from three dismantled refineries, the first of which was Bayernoil Raffinerie GmbH’s 45-year-old, 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) unit in Ingolstadt along the river Danube. Spice Energy promoted Cals had in 2008 signed an agreement with Lohrmann International GmbH for dismantling and relocating the Bayernoil refinery.
However, Cals and Lohrmann went to Delhi High Court last year over execution of the agreement and later decided to settle the conflict through arbitration by the tribunal of Indian Council of Arbitration.
The promoters’ inability to raise funds in the aftermath of the global economic crisis also delayed the project.
The delay has taken a severe toll on the stock of Cals, which is listed on the Bombay and Luxembourg stock exchanges. From around Rs6.55 per share of face value Rs1 in 2008, it is quoting at just 44 paise now.
Following the out-of-court settlement, sources said, the shipment is expected to commence next week.
As per the last timeline disclosed by the company, the project is to get commissioned in the fourth quarter of this fiscal, a delay of about 2 years from the initial estimates.
Cals, meanwhile, has taken steps to further expand the capacity to 200,000 bpd in Phase II from 100,000 bpd in the first phase.
The company in March mandated turnkey contractors Saipem of Italy with the job of carrying out a feasibility study for the 200,000 bpd Haldia refinery project.
The contract also stipulated that if the feasibility report is accepted within 80 days, the Italian contractor would be awarded the EPCC contract for the project.
The capacity for the second phase would come from translocation of two other refineries —- one from Cenco Refining Company of California and another from Atas Refinery in Turkey —-bought from hedge fund and real estate player the Hardt Group, for which the parties had earlier entered into an agreement.
Cals has planned a Rs1,425-crore global depository receipt (GDR) issue to finance the deal, but the government in June referred the proposal to the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs.
Cals would pay for the refineries by issuing the GDRs to affiliates of Hardt worth $317 million, while the balance $100 million would be in cash at a later date. Before that, Hardt would have to procure the equipment, get them refurbished and get them delivered to Haldia.
Cals said in May that it has allotted shares worth Rs94.79 crore to Abboro Ltd, an affiliate of Hardt.
Cals has also signed an agreement with Mohammed Abdulmohsin Al-Kharafi & Sons Co of Kuwait for raising $150 million through the GDR issue.
In the third phase, Cals will implement an additional 200,000 bpd greenfield capacity, taking the total capacity to 400,000 bpd.
In 2008, Cals had announced that oil major BP would be supplying the crude requirement for the phase I capacity for about 10 years and would also buy back 65% of the production at market prices. It is not known if that agreement is still valid, considering the long delay suffered in project execution.

My Comments:
After reading this take a call on your own........I know it is a penny stock but I just cameupon this news and as I read some readers are holding it, I thought it fit to reproduce it here......
 I would add here that it is a question of 50 Cals Ref as 50 paisa is gone according to your capacity how much you can write off......the top was rs 6.50 in 2008...

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Essar Oil declares 470 cr Net Profit............cmp Rs 127......

I am very very happy to see Essar Oil coming out with an excellent Net Profit of Rs 470 cr from a Loss of Rs 70 cr last year same time.
I gave a call for Essar Oil way back and my confidence has been turn out good.Even after one see that management is not reliable the Co has come out with great result.I am very glad to see that happening which again vindicates my view that there is nothing like good manegement or bad management.
If Co starts doing right things management becomes good and market gives thumbs up to such stock.
Essar Oil will get rerated and I have no doubt about it in my mind.
At Rs 127, Essar Oil is going cheap and one is able to get it so cheap because of the lack of confidence in market.No one is ready to stick out the neck and buy such stocks but actually these are the times when one should buy such stocks.Best time to buy stocks is when the chips are down.When market is hesitant to go up.When there are no positive trigger, when no one giving call to buy it, when no one wants to buy but actually wants to sell on every rise.
Selling on every rise period is already over.That was the period from Nov 2010 to May 2011.After May 2011 the period has started to buy stocks and market has given us a wonderful chance to buy stocks which are battered down badly.
I wrote recently I am seeing the prices which one can compare it with 2008 and early 2009 stage.I feel that valuations has gone down way much and if commodities are going to correct and is already correcting then I think we will be able to see good bottomline in next 2 quaters results and one needs to remember that market is always ahead 2-3 qr from investors.
Coming back to Essar Oil, I have observed that the Np has gone up consistantly qr to qr for last 4 qrs.Just have a look at last 4 qrs from Sep 2010.The Np has been constantly increasing qr to qr and I think that is an excellent situation for any Co.
I still say, Essar Oil will be a wealth accumalator if hold for LT and here LT will be for 3 to 5 yrs and more.Just buy and forget.Well, I can be proved wrong as I am not a God and I can't see what bad can happen to Essar Oil, a mishap or suddenly world finds out alternative for Oil and people start stop using Petrol/Gas.
I recomended IFB Ind @90  in Apr 2010 and it doubled by Nov 2010 and has come back to 130 and I feel that it is also time to have a look at it again.Brand product and Co coming out from BIFR and making profit as well  and a MNC Co.The promoters hold 71.56% and that is a big positive for me.Try to understand the movement.The price of 90 from which I recomended has not come and I don't feel it will come.There are scores of other stocks which has not come down recently like Lumax Ind , Loyal Tex, Super Sales,Epc Ind, Sujana Towers,Apar Ind and many more .I can't remember all but one can find many and according to me these are excellent stocks to hold on to as they are winners.
Let me tell you one more thing.When you see that in your portfolio some stocks goes up as soon as market goes up then that is a good thing as it shows that the counter is getting attention and buyers comes as soon as market goes up .It may even happen that even after market goes up the stock underperform then it says that it will take time to move up as it is in accumalation mode.The counter has not become dry which is very necessary for any stock to move up.
So the botttomline is if stocks moves up with market , then one can easily assume that the current is there and it can out perform the market as well.
DD is a must before taking a plunge in any of my call.I can go horribly wrong.
What I am trying to do here is pointing stocks which small investors may miss having a look at.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Hold the winners..........

I sometimes gets an itch to write something and when it is trying to educating small investors I get that fever very Because I know there is no one to discuss what a small investment can do to their entire life.
I had tried my best and I has given out everything I have to my readers.I will keep on writing whenever something will come up to my mind.
The main subject here will be holding on to stocks.I have written many times and today I am writing again , "HOLD THE WINNERS"....these are the stocks your decision had come correct.Most of the investors has the experiance of stock going down invariably after buying.Well, that isn't the case with us, even a highly successful, I can put him with WB, Peter Lynch has also experianced that.
He has spoken somewhere , and if one try to write Peter Lynch in "search"tab here at my blog one will be able to open that post wherein he has written 10 out of 8 times the stocks has gone down after his buying.
That is a universal phenomenon.Don't get perturbed by it but let me tell you , there are stocks which never went down after buying.That is a catch here.Don't sell that shares.If your price is not coming back from where you bought , it means that after our buying the momentum has started and if the stock is fundamentally good then hold on even after it doubles.Wait for further upmove and then sell part, maybe 25% and not 50% to make the holding FOC(Free Of Cost).
Stock not coming down after buying is an excellent situation which doesn't come to all.That is a rare achievement or stroke of luck.It says that as soon as we bought the operation started.
I have written many times here that for any stock to run the floating stock needs to be dried up.Unless that doesn't happen the stock never runs.I am not writing how that paucity of floating stock happens , one need to read between the lines.
The mistake small investors make is , they sell stocks which is in profit and hold on to the losers.That is a wrong way of thinking.Hold on to the winners.These are the stocks which has coincided with your LUCK.These stocks are LUCKY for you.Where you are making LOSS is not your LUCKY stock.Then why one need to stuckup with such UNLUCKY stocks?Hold on LUCKY stocks.
Ofcourse one need to see what will be the future of the Co and how much more it can go up, but don't hang on with losers.Simple.......
Even one stock can change the fate of a small investor.It can wipe out the entire losses made in stock market.Yes, only ONE stock can do it.It has happened to me.It has happened to many others as well.
One stock can give such a big return that one can buy a House from it.One can pay for children donation from that.
I was talking with a friend from India and he was telling me that he has invested in stocks which are not speculative amd hence he is at ease.I told him, man, stock market itself is speculation, how come some stocks are speculative and some are not.The thinking itself is speculation.
Let me explain.When we say this stock is not speculative and this is speculative, we assume it and the assumption itself is a speculation.Whenever we assume something it is a type of speculation.
Anyway, coming back to stock market , speculation is a part of life as well.When we will take our last breath no one knows.When a word no one knows comes, it becomes speculation.We keep on assuming we will be there the next day but no one knows the next day fate.
The stock goes up and down and that is speculation.Someone buys because he thinks it will go up.That is speculation.Some sell it because he thinks it will not go up that is speculation.What is F&O?That we assume and buy futures and we assume and buy Calls/Puts.
It is all speculation, speculation and speculation.........

Thursday, July 7, 2011


I have been telling you that last week rally was not a relief rally.I still believe that the upmove we are seeing is not a relief rally.Market has reversed.
Market has started discounting news ahead of time.Expert believe this or not but that is what is happening.Every analyst is waiting for 4800-4700 and even RJ said that market can find support at 4700-4800 due to inflation and int rate concern but the fact is market put aside that as these were reasons that has happened long time back and now the global scenario is, commodities is coming down and that will be seen in the bottom line of the Cos.
I last time wrote that Auto and Banking will have a very positive effect of this news and that is what is happening in market.
I today am not writing to show that I proved correct or what I said has happened because still there will many ups and downs in market making investors hesitant not to invest in stocks.There will be many shocks and many surprised up move like we saw today but according to me we are northbound.
There are many reports that keeps on coming about Greece crisis, Ice land crisis and so forth and so on but still when these news are fresh market is moving up.
I talked about Cloud Computing in one  of my post and wrote that the stocks to watch are Ramco System,Allied Digital and GSS America.
I don't how many studied those stocks and how many bought them.Cloud Computing is a sector which is going to boom 10 times in next 2-3 yrs and I have mentioned it here way ahead before market starts looking at those stocks.
My readers need to get in early then anyone else and that is why I have started this blog.But remember one thing that when we get in early in any sector or stock then the holding period goes up as we are way ahead before market start looking at those stocks and sectors.
Allied Digital has annouced a buy back at 140 and price was 43 last week and it has jumped by rs 10 in last 3 sessions.
GSS America has seen a good couple of bulk deals in last month or two.Those in know of such things has already started accumalating these stocks.
Ramco System is not budging at all and is still at Rs 92 even though the bottomline is in red.So what one need to understand here is market says Ramco is available at 92 even after making loss and if you want to buy , buy it otherwise leave it and you lose it .The hint here is , what price market will give when Ramco will start making profit?It is la Lumax Ind .......which was making loss and was quoting at Rs 95. I know this is a spoon feeding.This is a very simple commonsense thing one can understand but investor don't think like that. That is why I wrote it here.......
Srei Infra after making a low around 39 is again up to 44 as market feels that Int rate will eases and that will help Srei Infra.That is another case of market discounting stocks ahead of time.
Understand the market....that is the bottomline.
I am writing 3 more stocks in IT space.
1) Avantel Ltd
2) Solix Technologies Ltd
3) Sankhya Infotech Ltd

Avantel and Sankhya is in defence sector where lots of activity is going with orders going to these Cos as well. Open the annoucement of these stocks and read it one by one of last 2 yrs.I do that.Look at the earnings of these 2 cos as well and decide on your own.
Solix is in cloud Computing and is a very small player but it is a dark horse.