Sunday, May 31, 2009
Coming back to my last post of intelligent and smart investor think that this is an irrational exuberence of Teji or a rally and they wants to encash on this rally. What I want to tell them is,why they didn't find the irrationality when market went down and down for the whole last year?Why the questions arises when there is Teji and why it do not arises when there is Mandi?I don't know the people phycology........why they think like that.....just out of my understanding...Lol...
I read somewhere at some forum that someone wanted to sell when market will touch 12500 and that person is veteran in stock market.He is in market before I started taking interest.Just imagine how much old is in stock market.When a person like him says that he is going to sell and encash the profit when market will cross 12500 then what to tell for novice?Novice who has started taking interest since 4-5 yrs?
Now when market has touched 14500 after crossing 12500 he says he will sell at 16100 perhaps.
Remember one thing here,those who says I will do this, sell ,never believe them.They always misguide people.They speak soemthing and they do something. I spoke about the same thing at some other forum, when I was a member there, when a member said he sold everything in May 2007 and then he came back after few months just to write that he has already bought some stocks.I pointed out that to him at that time and he went wild.He started accsuing me and writing bad for me and ultimately I left that forum.Why don't he wrote that at that forum when he started buying?That was my point.
He is so veteran that people believe in him and act accordingly.When you have such a big fans and friends following how can you miss writing what you did and when someone else point out that ,he goes wild.I am very straight forward person and never budge to anyone who make mistakes.I also do mistakes but I confess.But when some one makes a mistakes and when others takes decision on that and miss something I points out openly and that is my nature.If the mistake is not harming anyone I don't bother but when people takes your word as a sacred word then you have responsibility to fulfill and that I pointed out.
And I point out very bluntly .Maybe my writing loosk more harsh but that it is.But one needs to have courage to confess it.That was one of the reason I left that forum.
I can't stay in such a place where there are dubious talk, and I am not saying all were such but taking side of him who erred is also unpardonable to me .I hate that.Be trasperant.That is the bottomline.Mistakes all makes.
Well, coming back to intelligent people , who feels that market has run up much ahead of any fundamentals, I have only this to say them.Well, agreed that the runup is the steepest in the history of last 17 years.The last one month,May 2009, runup by the market is the biggest ever in last 17 years.It means that even when we were in Bull market from 2003 to 2007 end there was no such big upmove that we saw in this Month of May.That is ashtonishing, isn't it?And when people looks at this they feel that it is irrational.
But what I wants to tell them is why market went up so fast?The real reason is that market was tanked beyond limit and hence it came up so fast as soon as the positive news came on the front.Even at this points there are scores of stock in Mid/smallcap space which are way below the high.And there is no surprise that Mark Mobious is bullish in this space.
The scenario has changed.In past when Mr.Shankar Sharma use to come at CNBC and speaks about bad world economic scenario market use to tank.But even though he or his wife, Ms Devina Mehra comes and speaks about market , that this is a bear rally, market is not coming down.That is the change in sentiment.That is the change in the mindset of the people that even though they hear , Messers Shankar Sharma ,Marc Faber and Mr Ramesh Damani and likes market is not going down.That shows that people are not buying their story and actually taking contra view.
The reason we saw the biggest points gain in last 17 years , in a single month ,is the stock were battered so heavily that as soon as the positive news started pouring in ,market went bersek.
Well, now we need to discuss why our and world market tanked?Was there any problem with any countries economic growth?The answer is BIG "NO".....the reason market world over tanked was because of US subprime crises and that hence liquidity getting quezzed.There was no money in the system and as soon as the liquidity is infused the things starts becoming normal.The entire fall can get arrested and that is what is happening.People use to argue that printing money will increase the inflation but that happens only when the money is already in the system, means no liquidity crunch but when there is no money in the system then how inflation will take place?
See, even after the biggest rally we saw in month of May we can see that many stocks are available at cheaper rates and hence there is lots of room left for Mid/Smallcap to outperform the sensex.More and more people will feel left out and they will wait for market to tank and it will never happen.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Some intelligent and smart people thinks that there is no change in fundamentals since 2-3 months and hence this rally is about to get terminated in ST.
The price rise do not warrent when everything is where it is.They are selling to buy at perhaps 10500 or even below.They says they are encashing money while selling in this rally as this is unwarrented and it is irrational .
People who are left buying are feeling the heat.They wants the market to come back so that they can buy what they sold with small profit or were not able to buy at all.But market is always smarter then a lay investor, howmuch he is well read.Reading books after books makes no sense.People keeps on buying books on Warren Buffet,Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and many more but it never helps.Why? Because when one takes decision to buy or sell something , he takes it on the spur of the moment.It is all phycological GAME.
If people can read books and make money following that then no one would make any loss.Even after reading all books the market becomes such that all the lesson learnt is forgotten.
I have never in my life read any of the books.Maybe some quote here or there in News paper or at some forum but never read any book.
Let me write to all my readers that I do not know how to read Balance Sheet.Yes,I don't know how it is read.What I am able to read is results of stocks.
Nothing more then that.What is Cash Flow,what is RONW then EPBDT (some thing like that) it is all Greek and Latin for me.
So please bear with me if I am unable to answer queries on Balance sheet etc.I know nothing about it.
What I know is SALES, NET PROFIT,EQ,BV,PROM HOLDING, Mcap,EPS,P/E....that's all.......and it is over.I can never go far from these parametres.These are my limitations.
So take your own decision whether you all still needs to follow me,means read me or NOT.
I have always written here that I do not believe in charts.It is just like astrology.When a person becomes famous astrology says that due to this stars ,planets, he become such a big Star(Bollywood).No one on the earth said that Amitabh Bachhan would become a mega star.None even wrote that after making a Loss of over 100 cr in ABC Corp Ltd Amitabh Bachhan would make a comeback and will regain all his wealth and even make more then he lost.
Charts are such.No one on the earth said that market can touch 14500 by May 2009.If some one can recall, 10500 was a very big resistance for market to go up from there.Then there was a very big resistance at 11200 then 12700.....One of my friend who has started reading and learning charts was also of the same view that 10500 was the maximum market can go.Now he claims that he said market can also go to 14500 and now he also claims that market can go upto 16500 and when I said market will touch 17500 he says , yes there is a remote possibilty that it can touch 18100...LOL............they keeps on claiming everything even they prove wrong.
Our very learned master Mr Ramesh Damani, whom I respect very much, also making some bad calls.He said once that if market crosses 12700 and remian there for few days then I have to change my view.That has happened and he still says that we are still in bear market and this is bear market rally.
I think when people starts looking at charts they become stuborn.They never accept they were wrong.
I think there are many chart analyst who use to read my blog as well and they use to write me what would be levels and how much market can go down or up etc.But since last 2-3 months none has claimed anything here.
The reason I do not believe in charts is,it keeps on changing.If certain level is crossed then we need to look at the upmove from some other level and then the entire scenario changes.Then again if market gives a correction and if goes below some support then the entire waves needs to be considered in other way.
There are many trend lines we need to learn and that trend line is always interpreted differently by each chartist.Some will says that the trend line is say,12700, some says it is 11200 so on and so forth.
I will only ask here , that can anyone claim , even give me evidence , of himself or any other chartist who told or written that we will be at 14500 by May 2009?
Charts are for day tarders.We are investors and hence we needs to look at fundamentals and try to find when the economy is going to turn around and there are certains sectors to look at and that I have written here many times.Even charts are no good for day traders.The opertors use to sit with chartist and they usually eat the Stop Loss and then from there the stock goes up...
I do not believe in tips .Daily tips.Subcsribing for them for a small fees of 1000 or 1500.They claims that they gives sureshot tips and many use to claim that their clients earned 30,000 -40,000 profit on such and such call.It is all bullshit.Means I am not saying that they have not earned but in other call they lose all they earned.If they are so sure when don't they play by them sleves?Why they need to go and find subscriber?
One of my friend gave me a reason that this same FII will start selling at the end of the year and then see where the market will be?But then why they are buying now to sellso soon?I don't buy this arguement..it is rubbish....kisi ke demag ka tukka hai....trying to justify his bearish stance....
Friday, May 29, 2009
US initial jobless claims fall 13k WASHINGTON:Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the biggest rounds of firings may be over. Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 623,000 in the week ended May 23, lower than forecast, from a revised 636,000 the prior week, according to labour department figures released on Thursday. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance rose to a record in the prior week for the 17th straight time, reflecting restrained hiring. Fewer job losses reduce the risk that consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will falter, delaying the economic recovery projected for later this year. Still, companies will be reluctant to add workers and increase production until sales show sustained gains. “The pace of job declines is lessening,” Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America said. “This along with some other indicators points to a trough in the recession.” — Bloomberg Durable sales jump to16-month high WASHINGTON:New orders for long-lasting US manufactured goods rose more than expected in April, posting their biggest gain in 16 months, according to government data on Thursday that suggested the recession was winding down April’s 1.9% increase was the biggest percentage advance since December 2007, when orders rose 4.1%, the commerce department said. But March orders were revised sharply lower, falling 2.1% from the previously reported 0.8% decline. New orders excluding transportation climbed 0.8% in April after declining 2.7% in March, boosted by orders for communications equipment, machinery and fabricated metal products. However, civilian aircraft and parts fell 6.8% after surging 7.5% in March. Non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell 1.5% in April. The prior month was revised to show a 1.4% decline.—Reuters
Pradeep Pandey & Piyush Pandey MUMBAI
ANIL Ambani-promoted Reliance Power is in talks with Australian mining firms BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto for setting up a coal mining joint venture that will develop the mines allocated to the company and supply coal to its power plants. The company plans to spend close to Rs 5,000 crore in developing coal mines, said a person familiar with the development. A company spokesman confirmed that R-Power is in talks with foreign firms for a JV, but refused to divulge names. “We continue to evaluate various options in our businesses. However, we don’t comment on specific opportunities or transactions,” he said. The firm may form a JV with one or more global mining firms for developing mines. Firms, such as Vale of Brazil, Peabody Energy of the US, Xstrata and Anglo American of the UK, are believed to have expressed interest in partnering with R-Power. R-Power has coal reserves of two billion tonnes, which will be enough to generate over 16,000 megawatts of power for the next 25 years. These reserves are in six coal blocks allocated to the company by the coal ministry. These blocks include Moher, Moher-Amlohri extension and Chhatrasal for the Sasan ultra mega power project in Madhya Pradesh and Kerandari B and C blocks for the Tialiya project in Jharkhand. It also has two coal blocks in Orissa. “A capital expenditure for the development of the proposed coal blocks would vary between Rs 4,000 and 6,000 crore depending upon the methedology used,” said an RPower executive. At Sasan, where R-Power has already started developing the block in line with the upcoming power project, the company has a planned expenditure of around Rs 2,500 crore. The first block is likely to start production by 2011, he added. Globally, coal mining companies are valued on the basis of their reserves. Pure coal mining firms are valued between $2 and $6 per tonne, depending on the quality of the coal.
29 May 2009, 0110 hrs IST, TNN
MUMBAI: The turmoil in the financial world notwithstanding, 2008 saw a doubling of the global carbon market to an estimated over $126 billion,
according to the latest World Bank report `State and Trends of the Carbon Market Report'. The finding of the report, which is based on data from trading of European Union Allowances (EUAs) under the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and from transactions completed under the Kyoto Protocol's mechanisms, including clean development mechanism (CDM), demonstrates the importance of the carbon market on a global scale. CDM and Joint Implementation (JI) mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol allow industrialised countries to purchase greenhouse gas emission reductions in developing countries and in countries with economies in transition. According to the report, however, the value of transactions from CDM projects in developing countries declined by 12% to an estimated $6.5 billion in 2008, with an average price of $16.8. According to Karan Capoor, senior finance specialist, World Bank: "This is a golden opportunity which challenges the international community to develop new thinking on how to scale up climate mitigation to promote sustainable development.'' The emphasis is based on the average likely demand of 560 million tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per year from 2012-20 compared to just about 80 million tonne of CO2 emissions that was registered in the CDM. Said Kathy Sierra, World Bank V-P of sustainable development: "As one response to the climate crisis, a deep and global carbon market continues to hold the promise to deliver significant benefits to both developed and developing countries alike.'' The CDM executive board is currently working to improve the efficiency of the project approval process, especially the key concept in determining whether a potential project is eligible to receive credits under the UN scheme. Recent scientific research and findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and others call for industrialised countries to collectively reduce emissions even more aggressively (by 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020) than the proposals on the table for Copenhagen.
I have written about Navin Flurine here couple of times.It is already up from Rs 72 to now at Rs 181 and it is still a buy..........Another Guj Flouro in making.....The other stocks in this categories are
1) Sahyadri Ind(My old pick)
2) Tanfac Ind( My old pick)
3)Torrent Power(My Old pick)
5) Aluminium Flouride
There are others as well but unable to recall.....but Carbon Credit story is going to get momentum and these scrips will FLY......
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Market is not budging down and giving bad dreams to Bears.It was up by over 500 points yesterday.
This is not a bear market rally.Market tanks after a run up like this in Bear market rally.Market is not going down below certian levels.I have already written here that 12000 is going to be a very strong support for any reason to take market down.
I have written here in past that by June 09 we should see a turnaround and that is happening.If global economy is going to make a comeback market will start discounting the news 6 months early and that we are seeing.I have written that it may happen that by June 09, we may not get a chance to getin cheaper and that is what people are experiancing it.
The US economy is turning around and hence we are seeing Dow going up.It will make a new high next year.
The recession is ending soon then all expected.No one on the earth was expecting it so soon but market was giving the hints.First biggets hint was given by our market when NDA got full majority and left were eliminated.That was the biggest surprise for every analyst.I remember I heard the talk show that was taken up by CNBC before election and the participants were Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Ridham Desai(Morgan Stanely) and Vallabh Bhansali (Enam Sec) and among them only RJ was bullish and he said we can see 12500 by election.
Ridham Desai(heard that he is of same caste of mine, Desai) was very wary of our market and was saying that 6000 can come and chances are more that we can see 6000 levels citing all reasons at that time and he made a U turn couple of days back saying that our market can touch 19500 by the end of the year.
Now one has to decide how much faith one should put with the Fund Managers.Even Niliesh Shah of ICICI was circumspect about the market and when I saw him with Ramesh Damani , Madhu Kela , he was giving some atrocious answers to the question asked by Ramesh Damani who was a Host there.
I am hearing and reading that LIC the biggest DI has Rs 1,00,000 cr, means over $20 bn to invest in equites, Bonds etc.Some 20,000 to 30,000 cr is laying in cash with DII's.On the top of that FII's will deploy more money this year as well as next year.I don't have to write what can happen in that case.Good stocks which are still availablke cheap are going to be lapped up by HNI's,DII,FII's etc.....
The new government new FM, Mr Pranab Mukerji has already said that their government wants to bring the GDP growth back to 9% and I have no doubt that under the astute guidence of Dr.Manmohan Singh ,we are going to climb back to 9% GDP.
Market is going up or bucking up any points it use to lose the previous day.Making higher base and taking time to consolidate.That is dangerous for Bears.Let SS and party remain in wrong notion that this is a bear market rally.There is no demarcation for when bear rally becomes a Bull market platform and those can see it is the WINNER.
I have been writing since long on that ....barring in between when I thought that US recession is going to last long but US seems to be coming out fast from the recession or slow down what ever we may call.
Everyone is thinking that US is gone but that is not going to happen.They have vast lands and ares where they can find Gas and Oils as well.
The crude going up was the first hint of something turning around.Oil and Gas co will again be the front runner.Viz:Dolphin Offshore, Shiv Vani,Selan Exlploration etc etc.
With Crude going up again the other fuels sector like Solar,Biofules will also gain momentum.
It is upto you friends what you need to do now.........
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Has the trend changed?That is the moot question that is in the mind of investor.
Some are asking me whether mid/samllcap rally will continue?
Well,looking at the global scenario it seems that trend has changed.Don't go by Marc Faber interview.They know nothing about Indian Market.Even Jim Rogers do not know anything.
But according to me the trend has changed and every fall or reaction is a buying opportunity.
The only thing I would like to write here is don't look at stocks which are still to show the performance.Buy stocks which are already giving good results and they are plenty.
I have written many times here recently that 21k can be crossed by Dec 2010 and sensex even may make a new high of 30k by dec 2010.
The momentum seems again gaining the velocity and FII's will come in droves to invest here.Some atleast $20-30bn is supposed to get invested through FII in 2010 and just imagine what can happen then.
Don't look at the prices,how much it run up.Good stocks are going to be lapped up by HNI's etc.
There will be reactions but I am afraid to say that we may not be able to see the Oct 08 lows or Mar 09 lows.
I don't understand what one have to look at for a stock like PSL ltd ?It has already got Rs 6,000 cr order and it is giving an eps of 24 even in this slow economic scenario.Even at 150 it is a buy.
Gremach Infra is having Coal Mines in Mozambique with 75% stake.What does one wants?The promoters are increasing the stake.
XL Tele is one of the best co in the Solar sector.Just read all the annoucement at BSE Site.
I am doing nothing here.I read all the annoucement and give a call here.No inside info nor any operators calls.I don't need to have that.
I gave a call on IndoCastle MultiMedia and it has started running.The only thing I have got is I track most of the stocks and any one can do that.The thing that is needed is PASSION.
My old call of Jyoti Ltd is also a great fundamental stock.It is back to Rs 50.
Just try to follow stocks which I use to write here.I do not give detail analysis for each and every stocks because I wants you all to find information so that you have your own conviction to hold it.
I have written here many times that if the stock is not going to give multibagger return I don't even look at it.Keep this always in mind.I may go wrong sometimes in my pick but that happens to everyone.
Sriram EPC, Madhucon Pro,JMC Pro,Jaihind Pro, Marg Const,PSL Ltd , Patel Eng, Era Const etc are multibaggers in making.Without Infra India is never to be going to a force to reckon with.It is the back bone of next bull run.
Power sector is another sector to look upon.Kirloskar Elec is a Gem of a stock and one needs to buy at this rate even.It has doubled from where I wrote to someone but still it is a buy.
I am seeing that TRF Ltd is going up and up.I gave a call to my friend at 230 some thing it is 560! Wow!There is a Bonus meet for TRF.
Some day India is going to dealinged from the global movements .It is going to happen one day that world market will be down but our market will go up.
The left out feeling is going to happen from now on.Everyone is going to feel like that.
Monday, May 25, 2009
I remember I gave a call on Apcotex Ind on 13 th May 2008.At that time people someone named Ramesh under annonymous id wrote me that why I gave a call when it is time to offload?
I am pasting that comment here:
"I dont know why this is being mentioned now after it has risen more than 50% in 10 days, is it time to offload the operators share???Beter be safe in these markets than to be sorry, as the correctons can be real savage and painful."
My reply to him:
May 14, 2008 2:06 AM
Rajeev Desai said...
Mr Anonymous,That I have already written.............due diligence is must for everyone.It is yours own money and you all have to decide when to buy...but you have no courage to come out with name.....
Then his reply :
Hi its me Anonymous again. Its not that I dont have courage to mention my id, but I dont have any id, dont want to create one as long as I can post one anonymous.My name is Ramesh and I live in UK, a small time investor who is fascinated by the indian dynamics and the future. I believe in fundamentals & turnaround stories, but as small investors are the ones at the bottom of the communication chain, things can go very wrong if not invested with diligence.Anyway your mentioning about 30% dividend, how can they actually pay that money as they are not making any profits......Check money.rediff.com, they have a profit margin of 0.01%, very very less to call it a profit.Thanks for your good work, will definitely buy others you have mentioned.
May 18, 2008 8:22 PM
My Commnets now on that:
Well, I was charged that I wanted to sell and hence I am recomending it.He gave reasons that they have a very less profit margin......
The latest result that was annouced on bse site today says that on sales of 25 cr they have earned a NP of 1.8 cr which gives a profit margin of 7% .Gving an EPS of 3.35 for the qr.
Apcotex Ind has declared a Div of 40% and that says about my pick.
What I want to say here is it is easy to critisize and allege someone but when the person who alleges goes wrong then he needs to come back and atleast apprecite my call ........and for that one needs to track someone properly and till the end .........
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Apcotex Ind...........A turn around story..........
Apcotex IndEq : 5.5 crBV : 90CMP : 61FV : 10Apcotex was established in the year 1980 as a division of Asian Paints (India) Ltd., the largest paint manufacturer in India. Apcotex spun-off as a separate company in 1991 and is now part of the 'APCO' group of companies headed by Mr. Atul Choksey, Chairman of Apcotex Industries Ltd. and former Managing Director of Asian Paints. With basic engineering and process know-how from Chemische Werke Huls (CWH) Germany, Apcotex pioneered the production of Vinyl Pyridine Latex, an important raw material for the tyre industry, in India. Subsequently, products such as Carboxylated Styrene Butadiene Latices, Nitrile Latices and Styrene Butadiene Rubbers were developed in-house.Apcotex Industries Ltd. is one of the leading producers of Synthetic Latices (VP latex, XSB latex, Nitrile latex) and Synthetic Rubber (HSR, SBR) in India. The company has one of the broadest ranges of products based on Styrene – Butadiene chemistry available in the market today. Their range of Latices is used, among other applications, for TYRE CORD DIPPING, PAPER/PAPER BOARD COATING, CARPET BACKING, CONCRETE MODIFICATION/WATER PROOFING and TEXTILE FINISHING. The various grades of Synthetic Rubber find application in products such as footwear, automotive components, v-belts, conveyer belts and hoses.Over the past several years,they have developed a strong Research & Development base, which has enabled them to develop, manufacture and export products and compete effectively against global players. Through their technical service team and well-equipped application laboratory, they also provide value added services to enable customers to constantly improve the quality of their final product.Their manufacturing plants are located at Taloja, 50 kms. outside of Mumbai. The manufacturing facilities incorporate state-of-the-art emulsion polymerization technology as well as adequate monomer and finished goods storage facilities and efficient utility support. Additionally, sophisticated DCS control systems ensure fine control over operating parameters.Apcotex believes in implementing best practices across all departments of the company. They adhere to high quality, safety and environmental standards. Apcotex, an ISO 9001: 2000 certified company, is also in the process of implementing the TOTAL PRODUCTIVE MAINTENANCE (TPM) program under the guidance of the JAPAN INSTITUTE OF PLANT MAINTENANCE (JIPM). They have state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities, with plants strategically located just outside the port city of Mumbai, on the west coast of India.TECHNOLOGY,RESEARCH&DEVELOPEMENTApcotex is constantly incorporating latest manufacturing/processing technologies and introducing new products to meet changing customer requirements. A range of sophisticated laboratory analytical instruments, well-equipped pilot plant facilities and close interaction with renowned institutions like The National chemical Laboratory (Pune), Indian Rubber manufacturer’s research Association (Mumbai) and Central Pulp and Paper Research Association (Saharanpur) for advanced analytical services, helps the company achieve its objectives.Their Research and Development laboratory is recognized by the Department of Scientific and Industrial research (DSIR), Ministry of Science & Technology, Government of India.To have world-class manufacturing facilities, Apcotex has been practicing TPM for the last few years with the help of the Japanese Institute of Plant Maintenance (JIPM). The objective is to achieve zero defects, zero losses, zero accidents and zero breakdowns.Apcotex Ind is making profit since last 3 qr and hence can safely assumed that it can show and EPS of over 10 this year ending Mar 09.While other rubber product co getting valuation higher of around over 20 P/E then with a conservative P/E of 12-15 , Apcotex Ind can touch 110-120 in a year time and hence can be a good buy at this level for a 70-80% return.Apcotex Ind is available below BV and promoters has increased the stake since couple of years from below 40% to now over 51% which shows the confidence of promoters in the company.This is my view and due diligence is a must for everybody.One should cross check the information given here and take a call.Update:Apcotex Ind recomended dividend after many years and the Div declared is 30%.This again confirms my take that company is now on a growth path and will deliver profits constantly otherwise there was no need for a dividend decalartion and that too as big as 30%.....even 10% div would have been suffice to show the investment community that company is out of woods....Keeping my fingures crossed.....
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Now that reformer Manmohan Singh is all set to reclaim the Prime Minister's throne once again, the infrastructure industry has much to cheer about. Like everyone else, Hemant Kanoria, the chairman and managing director of SREIInfrastructure Finance Ltd, too, has a wish list for thegovernment, which he elaborates on in a chat with DNA Excerpts from an interview:
What is your wish list for the new government?
Whichever government comes in, I hope infrastructure remains its focus. Our wish is that whatever hasn't happened on the infrastructure side yet should be made to happen now. This includes creating an enabling environment so that infrastructure financing institutions can raise long-term money easily, either through external commercial borrowings (ECBs), or through IIFCL, or through bonds.
Another thing required is a set of reforms for the infrastructure sector, whether it is roads or ports. There have been many problems with the set of policies that we have lived through for 20 years. Now is the right time to rejig that, simplify and see that the bottlenecks that have hampered speedy implementation of infrastructure projects are removed. Yet another move should be the removal of multiplicity of taxes, which confuses everyone in this sector. There has to be continuity. It's not very difficult. It just requires a change in mindset.
What are the specific reforms you want to see?
I'll explain them with examples. Today we have open access in electricity as per the Electricity Act 2003, and we are in 2009. As open access is allowed, we should have had lots of transmission companies and lots of distribution companies starting off.But that has not happened.
But that's not the policy's fault. The implementation is faulty...
If one goes back to the policy itself, there are a lot of complications, and that is why the implementation won't happen. If we move at this pace, it will take a lot of time to implement all the infrastructure projects. Everyone has been talking about improving infrastructure for 20 years, but the bridging of the gap between requirements and completion hasn't been done.
How many roads have we been able to complete? How many power plants have come up? How many ports have been build? We have done several small things, but if we want only to trudge along, this is the right way. If we want speedy implementation, we have to find out what is drastically wrong.
In times of slowdown, is it wise to infuse capital into long term infrastructure projects that bear fruit in years instead of spending money towards increasing retail consumption, which would immediately revive the economy?
There is a difference between western countries and India. Europe and the United States are excessively consumer-driven markets, and that is the problem today that the US is facing. Everyone has borrowed money to spend, which is not the right thing to do. Consumer spending is good only up to a certain extent. But if we create infrastructure, it will reduce cost of delivery to the consumers and money will ultimately come into the consumers' hands.
By building infrastructure, we will also buy cement, steel and other things, and generate employment. But by creating consumer spending we will not put money into productive purposes. Also, it does have an immediate impact. The government decided in February that they will see to it that all the projects start coming up faster, and as a result, the cement and steel prices went up immediately. Thus, infrastructure spending is the only way for the government to go forward. The government should also invest in agriculture, as there is huge domestic demand that has also insulated us in this crisis.
I have recomended Srei Infra here many times.I don't think I need to revisit all my post here.One can have a look at them in my old post.
Srei Infra is still a buy and I have given reasons for that.Sree also wrote me that it is running like anything.
Well, as my friend disagree with Jim Rogers view so am I.
Well, we all know that Jim Rogers likes China the most and he is bullish since last 5-6 yrs and have invested billions in there.
I can understand his love for China as it is now a big economy and roaring too but I am unable to understand his Love for SriLanka and Myanmar?
Can there be any comparision between India and SriLanka and Myanmar(Old Burma)?
The intelluctual property India is possessing and the other two are possessing?Seems Jim Rogers has a disliking for India and that will remain for ever.
He is never going to say that India is an investment destination.I don't think he will ever say.
But let me be clear that , by Dec 2009 many investors Viz: HNI's, Leading players(RD and likes), many MF managers,FII's and small and big individual investor are going to curse the decision not buying anything at this throw away price or they sold the stocks at very small profit.
I am feeling handicapped as I wants to buy in the market but have no money to buy.I am seeing a very unprecedented bull market unfolding in 2010 and in that as I have written here many times that chances of crossing 21k is very very bright. As usual I may prove wrong and as RJ use to say, I reserve the right to be wrong.......but I feel that these type of chances do not come in even 2-3 decade.I have never seen such prices in my life deteriotating to just peanuts so fast.
Smart people says that there is no fundamental change in our economy so that we can go up by 50% and hence the stocks doubles or appreciate by 50% , they are selling.But what I need to say to them is the prices were battered so much down that even it has double is making no sense.
Jim Rogers Prefers China, Sri Lanka to India for Investment
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By Chen Shiyin
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- China and Sri Lanka are better investment opportunities than India even after the Congress party’s biggest election victory in two decades, investor Jim Rogers said.
India’s benchmark Sensitive Index, or Sensex, jumped a record 17 percent on May 18, causing a trading halt, on speculation Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s victory will enable him to accelerate economic reforms.
“I’ve heard the same thing for the last 30 years,” Rogers told an Economist Conferences forum in Singapore today, saying he’s skeptical of Singh’s pledges. Still, India will be “the next great investment” if Singh sticks to his commitments, Rogers said.
This week’s gains drove the Sensex to a 42 percent advance for 2009 to date, in line with the Shanghai Composite Index’s 43 percent climb on optimism China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan will bolster the economy. Sri Lanka’s Colombo All- Share Index jumped to a seven-month high today as the central bank raised its forecast for economic growth following the end of a 26-year civil war.
“You’ve got the wind in your face doing business in India, you’ve got the wind in your back in China,” Rogers said, adding that he sees “great, cheap” opportunities in Sri Lanka because of “dramatic” changes in the country after the end of the war.
Rogers is chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings and the author of “A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.”
India’s gross domestic product growth may weaken to 6 percent in the year that started April 1, the slowest pace since 2003, the central bank said last month. China’s economy expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost a decade, though manufacturing expanded in March and April, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 53.5 last month.
India’s ruling coalition said in its pre-election manifesto it will add between 12,000 and 15,000 megawatts of power generating capacity each year in its five-year term. The targets are ambitious considering India added only 9,263 megawatts of new capacity during the fiscal year ended March 31, 2008, and less than half that in the same period a year later.
Sri Lanka’s central bank said today the economy may grow between 4 percent and 5 percent, compared with an April forecast of 2.5 percent. The benchmark index has jumped 12 percent this week, taking its gains this year to 43 percent, the eighth-best performer globally, after the military said it killed the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam leader Velupillai Prabhakaran.
Myanmar also offers “enormous” potential for investors, Rogers said, given the country’s location next to India and China and its natural resources. He said he doesn’t currently have any investments in Myanmar.
Rogers said on May 12 he may bet on a slide in equities after nine weeks of gains, in a Bloomberg Television interview. The MSCI World Index has since lost 0.6 percent.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
BS REPORTERS Mumbai/ New Delhi, 20 May
If trends over the past few weeks are anything to go by, banks are slowly shedding their aversion to financing new projects and foreign investors are heading back to India.
Though private and the foreign banks are yet to step up lending in a big way, public sector banks have started financing projects.
The result: Funding of over Rs 58,000 crore for large projects has been tied up in the last six weeks.
The list includes Indian Oils Paradip refinery (Rs 14,900 crore), State Bank of Indias loan to NTPC (Rs 8,500 crore), Krishnapattnam Port (Rs 3,000 crore), BGR Energys engineering, procurement and construction work (Rs 4,000 crore), SBIs loans to Vodafone (Rs 10,000 crore) and the Anil Dhirubhai Ambani groups three projects (Rs 14,500 crore for the Sasan Ultra Mega Power project, Rs 2,000 crore for Delhi Metro Express and around Rs 1,000 crore for transmission projects in the west).
With interest rates falling, lenders are locking in deals at higher yields on the project finance side, said Ravi Kapoor, Managing Director of Citigroup Global Markets.
Infrastructure developers arent the only ones finding it easier to raise resources; companies such as Tata Motors are finding takers, too. A banker associated with the Rs 4,200crore debenture issue, said the auto major had placed its entire debt in a day.
Construction major J P Associates is also in the process of raising nearly Rs 4,000 crore from debentures.
Companies that failed to raise equity in the aftermath of the September crisis when several global investment banks crumbled under the sub-prime loan crisis in the West had to opt for non-convertible debentures to meet their funding requirements. Although this market remained strong, with companies raising funds at up to 12 per cent, participation was limited to state-owned Life Insurance Corporation.
Now, other banks are back in the market, said market participants. In April, companies collectively raised NCD issues worth Rs 25,000 crore.
There are signs that the equity market is looking up too. Overall, bankers estimated that over Rs 40,000 crore of rights, QIP and debenture issues are in the pipeline.
Turn to Page 16
IndianOils Paradip refinery ties up Rs 14,900 cr debt,
achieves financial closure
NTPC gets Rs 8,500 cr loan
Reliance ties up funds for power transmission project
Tata Motors to raise Rs 4,200 crore through debenture issue
Indiabulls Real Estate raises Rs 2,585 crore through QIP issue
Infrastructure projects account for the bulk of the funding
Cost of funds still high
Smaller companies still find it tough to raise resources
BANKING ON REVIVAL
After a near six-month drought, India Inc is finding some takers for debt and equity issues
IN THElast six weeks, Unitech, DLF and Indiabulls all real estate players have together raised Rs 8,000 crore through qualified institutional placements (QIPs).
The private placement by the three realty companies is an example of foreign investors willing to invest in a sector that was perceived to be the most risky, said Enam Securities Vice-president Yogesh Kapoor.
He predicted that other sectors considered less risky will attract investment more easily from overseas investors.
The underlying sentiment has changed dramatically. Indian stocks, which were punished severely in comparison to other emerging markets, provide attractive value propositions for investors, Kapoor added.
Also, the election mandate that returned a less fragmented government at the Centre is expected to facilitate the reform process, so some stateowned companies will enter the capital market, which will increase the supply of good quality papers, Kapoor said.
Some constraints, however, remain. On the equity side, companies with good assets and a good track record on returns to shareholders are able to raise funds now. But the gate is not so widely open that anyone can get through, said Gagan Banga, director, Indiabulls Real Estate, which raised Rs 2,585 through a QIP issue on Tuesday.
Also, he said the cost of debt remains high We have seen sentiments improve for the short-term but we have not found a solution for the medium to long term, Banga said.
Indiabulls Power Services is looking to raise around Rs 5,200 crore of debt to achieve financial closure for its upcoming thermal power plant.
It has already raised its equity contribution of Rs 800 crore.
Though Banga did not name any projects, funds for Sasan were tied up at 12.5 per cent, while SBIs five-year loan to Vodafone will cost 13.25 per cent during the first two years.
Going forward, however, things are likely to improve. Investment in infrastructure projects will pick up substantially shortly. It was expected to start early this year but got caught in the election process. The National Highway Authority of India had stopped the award of new projects owing to the election code of conduct, but it is expected to start soon. This time, the response is going to be overwhelming as most of the projects have been redesigned, said India Infrastructure Finance Company Chairman and Managing Director, S S Kohli.
He added that benign interest rates will also make infrastructure projects more economically viable. With enough liquidity in the system, there will be no paucity of resources, he predicted.
According to government estimates, infrastructure projects worth nearly Rs 46,000 crore will be awarded in the coming months.
The pipeline of projects, from sectors like power and gas, to raise funds is strong. In the current financial year, we expect to arrange around Rs 100,000 crore for infrastructure projects, said A P Verma, managing director & CEO of SBI Caps, which was associated with the Tata Motors and Sasan fund-raising.
Though companies are still under pressure and demand remains subdued, the sentiment, bankers said, has changed because the worst seems to be over, at least in the domestic market.
The mood was really down in the last quarter of 2008. By mid-January, it had started improving and by March there was clear visibility of the mood changing, ICICI Bank Chairman K V Kamath told Business Standard in a recent interview.
Although overseas fund-raising remains tough, given the high credit spreads, domestically banks are flush with funds, which can be gauged from the fact that for nearly six weeks now, they have been consistently parking around Rs 125,000 crore on a daily basis through the Reserve Bank of Indias reverse repo window.
On the equity side, companies with good assets and a good track record on returns to shareholders are able to raise funds now. But the gate is not so widely open that anyone can get through
Director, Indiabulls Real Estate
PB JAYAKUMAR Mumbai, 20 May
Projects worth over Rs 18,000 cr
Anil Ambani-promoted Reliance Power (RPower) has bagged four hydroelectric power projects of 2,520- Mw capacity worth over Rs 18,000 crore from the Arunachal Pradesh government through a competitive bidding process.
With this, the company is set to become the secondlargest hydropower project developer in India with 4,620 Mw of hydro projects under its belt, said a company official.
State-run National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) is the largest hydropower generator in the country with 5,177 Mw of installed capacity and another 6,000 Mw of projects in the pipeline.
The bidding parameters for these projects were the amount of free power that the developer would offer to the state as well as the upfront premium it was willing to pay.
Bidders in the fray for the four projects of 1,200 Mw Kalai-II, 500 Mw Emni, 420 Mw Amulin and 400 Mw Mihudon included players such as Jaiprakash Hydro Power, L&T and Athena Energy, said sources.
We have bagged four new hydro projects for generating 2,520 Mw and will implement all these projects during the 12th Plan period from 2012 to 2017. These are Run-offRiver (RoR) projects which can take off within 6-7 years and construction expenses will be less when compared with reservoir-type hydro projects, said a Reliance Power spokesperson.
In RoR projects, there is no need for storing the water in dams, which are very expensive to construct. While the Kalai-II project is in Lohit River, rest of the three projects are in River Mithun.
R-Power is currently implementing three hydro projects worth 2,100 Mw 1,000 Mw Siyom and 700 Mw TatoII in Arunachal Pradesh and another 400 Mw Urting Sobla in Uttranachal.
R-Power is also in talks with Canada-based HydroQueubec, one of the largest hydro power specialists in the world, to explore joint venture and technical support opportunities for its mega hydro power foray, said sources.
Private power producers such as Jaiprakash HydroPower Ltd (JHPL), Bhilwara Energy and Tata Power also own and operate hydro power projects in the country and in neighbouring Nepal.
Jaiprakash Hydro-Power Ltd (JHPL), a part of the Jaypee Group, owns and operates the 300 Mw Baspa-II Hydroelectric Project at Kinnaur in Himachal Pradesh and is working on the second phase of 300 Mw.
Bhilwara Energy is targeting to develop 3,000 Mw of hydro power by 2015 through 11 small and medium scale projects in Nepal, Arunachal Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh.
Tata Power, which currently generates 447 Mw of power from hydroelectric projects, is also looking to add another 1,000 Mw from projects in Nepal, Bhutan and India.
In the run-off river type of hydroelectric power plants, the cascading water of the river is diverted through a tunnel and is used to run the turbines for generation of electricity.
The RoR projects in Arunachal Pradesh were planned after analysing the rainfall and water availability for the last 100 years, elaborated officials.
The Build, Own, Operate and Transfer (BOOT) projects will be implemented by separate shell companies formed for the purpose, said sources.
They added that R-Power has started preliminary work for the Siyom and Tato projects in Arunachal and one of the projects may reach financial closure in a few months.
The reason writing this headlines is because majority in our market do not like Anil Ambani.They feel AA is no good in business and that he knows nothing.
Rs 18,000 cr project is no small an amt.It is almost $5 bn in dollar terms.
Anil Ambani is not liked by many players and FII's.Many analyst also do not project this Chote Bandhu as a good business man.
Let us see what happen to AA's stocks and his project in next Bull Run..........But according to me AA is a financial Wizard who has garnered money from Int market when the chips were down in India and when Ril gr needed the most when both the bros worked under their late great father, Mr Dhirubhai Ambani.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
See where XL Tele is?after making a recent low of 35.60 it is 49.35 , 10% up today.
See Kirlos Ferro, up 20 % today at 22.70
See Gremach Infra up 5% today at 42.05
Sujana Towers up 20% today at 23.75........
so on and so forth not to talk about midcap like PSLLtd which I first recomended at 69 and again at 80 now it is 117 after making a high of 122 today.
One of my friend was asking me whether PSL is buy at 103 or wait for correction.I said it is buy uptill 150.But he said he will wait for market to come down to 10500 .This he said before election results when market was at 11200.This things is going to happen with lots of investors.With small profit they will sell and the stock will go up and up.
They will feel Left Out.
But when we see the prices of some stocks then they are still way way down from high.Even if we assume the half the high and see at prices now even after this rally they are still down.That is the way investor needs to look it.If with just 20% -30% up one think it has runup and I will buy later then he will definately be left out.
The Midcap and Small cap has to make up with the sensex to catch the near or even half the previous high otherwise even at sensex 21k this time, midcap/smallcap will still be available at throw away price and that is not possible.Hence they needs to outperform sensex in big way.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Heard that Shankar Sharma was in good mood even though market went up.Someone asked me why he was not perturbed.I told me he must have no short position and must have misguiding people from wire media to short but he was not.That is a glaring example of how big heads make fool of investor.
I also heard that one of the most respected person and a veteran in market who use to recomend stock on fundamentals also shorted market and was sure that the verdict will not be so good and we are still in bear market , didn't cut the short position on Friday expecting fractured verdict.Seems he must have made a Huge Loss...........as NIFTY UP BY 650 POINTS.... is not a greart scenario for shorters.650 points in a day for Nifty is HUGE.....
Bulls were moulded and grinded to dust for 12 months for entire 2008 and Bulls picked up the great occasion and left no way to leave bear any respite for an inch.
When I talk of Bulls I have only one name in my mind and that is .........a man known as Big Bull.Yes, the man fondly known as Big Bull.He is the only bull who can do such things when the chips are down in global economy and world is seeing the recession and still Indian market can go for Upper circuit.
What a day it was!No one imagined that Bulls can retaliate in such a manner.
Big Bull is the main man behind this whole massacre for bears.People do not believe that he is active but he is and he is the main driving force of a Industrial House MF's and his personal asset.The only person who is also known as ONE MAN ARMY can only do this and no one in the world can do it.
Well, for taking one or two stock in UC for whole day is possible but holding the market in UC (upper circuit) is not a child's play.It needs an expert hand to do it and that too who has courage and capacity what to do when .Like if selling comes that needs to be absorbed too at the same time otherwise the circuits gets open and market can't have another circuit.
Keeping the market for 20% upper circuit for whole day is surely a very daunting task to undertake and that was done with very great precision , just like doctor use to operate a body with seccisors and with steady hands.
I got the news on Saturday itself that market will go for upper circuit but refrained from writing it here as anything can happens when Bears have made loads of money and to keep market in UC for whole day is an Himalayan task.But they did it.BB did it.One man army did it.No one else has the guts to do it and take on bears.He did it in Akruti Ltd as well and also in Educom as well.
These are my guessing and hence one need to believe it the way he wants to.
But after being in the market for 24 yrs I can guess all these things.I have not met anyone personally but I know the modus operandi of many operators and I can smell who is behind which stocks.That is all due to my experiance and observing the market and trying to find all information from every which way I can.I read a lot.
The resistant of 12700 has been crossed very easily and it is way up from there and market can still go up by 20% in the rest of the week.
Experts says that global scenario has not changed but the thing that has happened is ,India has got a clear mandate and with no interfearance from LEFT.As Samir Arora rightly pointed that not seeing Mr.Prakash Karat on TV is itself 500 points for sensex and if we add Mr.Sitaram Yechury then it can be 1000 points.
Dr.Manmohan Singh will be able to go for reform in full flow and disinvestment of PSU can materialize.This is a big victory for India that a stable government has been formed and that a person of great economic knowledge is at the helm of affairs.It was the same Dr.Manmohan Singh who opened the gate of FII's in 1991 and Harshad Mehta, the original BIG BULL, took the market(Sensex) to dizzy heights from 1800 to 4600 in couple of months in the year 1991.
I wrote at other place that market is hinting some good news coming and the members are ignoring it.They were all bearish and still are bearish.They are still scepticle about the market and expect market back to not at 7700 but at 5000! ............Lol............that is hilarious..........
US housing sector is getting stable and financial crisis is not claiming any more casualty and that is enough for Bulls to make a bull market world over.Let us see what happens in next one year.
Some one asked me about my list of cash Gr stocks which I listed here couple of months back.He needs to look at my past post or if someone can paste it here for others.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
The verdicit is out.Congress is going to rule.That is a welcome mandate by the people of India as they have voted for reforms and has given a clear mandate to Congress to go ahead with reforms.
Market has got just it wanted.Stability.Market was in doubt what can be the outcome of the election but now as there is going to be a stable government , market will show it full color in next one year.Now I am sure that my projection of touching 21k in by Dec 2010 is going to happen.It may even happen early and we may see even a new high by DEC 2010.
The new high may just not be just couple of thousand points but almost 40-50% above the previous high.Yes, you are guessing correct.We can touch 30k.
The stable government will infuse confidence in FII's and they are going to pour money in billions. India will again will be a hot destination for FII's and Pension Funds.
I again write that those who have invested in Cash gr stocks with good fundamentals will be able to make big return from the market.Cash gr is going to blast like anything in next 6 months and people will curse themselves for not buying stocks at such a low level.
But stocks which I have written here time and again.be it A gr or Cash gr.
Seimens , ABB, Areva, Alsthom , L&T , Thermax, are going to be the star performer in next 3-4 years.
The sector to watch out are Power(Hydel power,Thermal Power,Nuclear power),Infra, Realty,IT,Cement,Water Management, Ports ,Irrigation ,PSU Oil co(HP,BP,IOC) are some sectors which needs to lookout for.I will discuss other sectors in times to come.
But these are hot sectors.
I can't say anything about Monday.We can even go up by 1k points and more.The election has given a new confidence to bulls .One of my friend asked me about the market reaction.He asked me if there will be any market reaction after say market touches 12500-13000.
He asked me before the elections results were out.
I told him that market can surprise Bear like Market surprised Bulls in year 2008.I told him that as market went down straight from 21k to 7700 without any proper pullback rally and bulls were grind to dust , the same can be in store for Bears as well.Market can go up and up without big correction which bears may not be used to of since last year and a half.They are already seeing the trailer since last 2 months as market hs gone up by 50% without any big correction and the election has given strength to bulls .
The year after election has always proved good for market and seems to be the same this time too.But the crux is , to predict what can happen and how much maket can go up and which stocks will go up and which sector will outperform the sensex.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Market was up by 450 points and that all the loss it made in last 2-3 days was covered up.
People are still shorting the market.People are still short in Nifty and they never imagined that market will come up so fast and so swift.They have shorted nifty even at 3000 and less.
I donno what macro economics indicators they follow but I would like to write here that one should always look at indicators which are very easy to track and also good hint for things to come.
I have written here many times that one need to observe the Crude prices.The day crude goes over $50 it will show that global economy is stabilizing.Need to look at the commodities as well.
Bovespa is up from 33k to now 50K.Bovespa made a high of 72k and went 50% down at 33k.It is back at 50k.This shows that commodities are again going up.Crude is above $50.
That was enough sign for me to become bullish.But people go on seeing macro and micro indicators and they get lost in it.
Even Ramesh Damani is making the same mistake I think.I am no one to write for him but according to him , he is also surprised by the strength of this rally.He now says that if sensex remians above 12700 for few days then he needs to rethink about this rally.
My observation that before results are out sensex can touch 12500 seems to be coming true.
Some of the readers asks me about some stocks.
I am giving the answer here to them as well so that everyone who track my blog and read it if they do not read my replies in comment section.I had written many times here , please read my replies to any reader.One can get a clue what to buy from there as well.
Well, coming back to stocks someone asked me about SA Petro chem.I was also asked about Bio Green.
I have to write to them that when some great fundamental stocks are available very very cheap then why we need to look at some stocks which has less earning?SA Petro and Bio Green seems to be OK but they will take time to grow hence we need to look at stocks already grown and on verge of exponential growth.I have time and again given list of stocks to look at.The reason giving the LONG LIST is that one can choose from the whole list and pick which looks good to invest and comfortable with , pricewise, valuationwise , earningwise, saleswise etc.
Many do not like a long list but I give them choices to select where they wants to put money in.
And I am always there for any question to answer that is asked , what is the reason I have recomended it.The list is always long and hence I do not write information on any stock.As I had said earlier that I have no inside info I just track so many stocks which is very difficult for others to track and hence I give big list so that atleast from that they can try to explore as much information of that stocks where one wants to invest.
I always have tried to see that readers try to gather all the information on their own.Try to look at the bse site and
1) Read Annoucement(all including archieves)
3)Share Holding Pattern
4) Google( write the name on the google and find the site and try to understand their product, collobaration, etc)
These are the things one needs to find on their own because the CONVICTION comes only if you have researched by yourself.
That is my main aim.My reader should have conviction in what they are investing.So trying to find facts on stocks becomes easy atleast when you already know the name of the stocks.That is what I am trying to do here.Though I have given information in details for some stocks as well but is not possible for all stocks but one is always free to ask me about any stocks whether I have recomended here or not.If I am knowing anything about it I will reply for sure.
Well, market is going to remain in positive zone and now 3200 should act as a majot resistance.As I have written earlier we can cross 21k by next Dec 2010. I am seeing this prediction at some other paid site as well that is what someone told me.
Good that someone is thinking the way I am thinking.I am becoming more and more bullish with passing of time.
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Market is going up and down and that is natural.We have come up from 8000 to 12100 and that is 50% up from the recent low.
Profit booking is going to take place in this type of situation and also with the elections results on head.
What I am seeing is that Midcap and small cap with good fundamentals will outperform the sensex in a big way as they are the one which are battered one very badly.Try to buy those stocks on every fall and reaction.If we take a case of XL Tele ,though it showed very bad result still it went up and the low it made was 35.60.........why?because the valuation is so low that even with bad results it went up.It also says that bad results and slowdown was factored in at this price and hence there is only one way and that is up and that can be said for entire Mid-smallcap sector having great fundamentals.
All the stocks in A gr which I have mentioned went up very nicely and I still write that they are the best buys even now.I have been mentioning ABB, Areva, Thermax,L&T,Alsthom, Seimens etc time and again.These are Power plays.This sector along with others like Infra , Water managemnet will take our economy back to 9% growth.
Heard that Tata's are going to sell flats at just 4 lacs.They will be, one room and kitchen flats and that too in Mumbai(Boiser).That is a great news for people in Mumbai and also for housing sector.
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
400+700 = 1100 in 2 trading session ! What can it called?A Bear market rally or a start of a bull market.
I wrote here that this rally can take us to 12200 to 12500 way ahead of any analyst predicted.
12200 is already achieved.The rally can still go for more 500 points.There should be a reaction after that but after that 3200 is going to act as a great support level.
There are stocks like Areva, L&T,Seimens,Alsthom, Thermax,Patel Eng,ABB are my favourite counter having great fundamentals.One can blindly buy them.Even if someone buys at this level and they goes down one need not to have worry as they will have a comeback anytime.
The shorts that are still there will take the market more up.But there is a clear sign of global economy turning around.I am bullish on our market.
Seen the XL Tele result.It is bad.XL can go down but I have faith in my pick.It will bounce back at appropriate time.
Have faith in my picks.One of my reader was telling me that Kwality Diary is now 140.I also saw that Mastearos Mediline is still at 50.
My smallcap pick like SKS Logistic,Kirlos Ferro,Jayaswal Neco, Jyoti Ltd etc etc will go up when the time will come.
But this is the best time to buy Cash gr stocks.Buy as and when one have money.Have conviction.Try to find everything you can.Have a time of 2-3 yrs so that you have not to worry and remember what I have written.Sell 50% stocks as soon as it doubles and keep the rest FREE.That is the best way to invest.
Buy 200 and sell 100 at double.Buy 300 and sell 150 at double and keep the rest FREE to have the maximum profit.
Market is defying all techincals and charts.Had any chartist predicted of 700 point rally todaay?I don't think so........
If charts were so great to guide you then anyone could have become millioner but that has never happened.All the wealth created by big name in stock market viz: Warren Buffet,Peter Lynch,Rakesh Jhunjhunwala,Ramesh Damani etc have made money by investing.Had anyone seen these people talking of charts or technicals?
Friday, May 1, 2009
Market went up against all analyst view.No one thought that market will go up by 400 point.That was a HUGE move.
Well, I was discussing about our market at some other place.They were also surprised by the move but someone wrote before Wednesday that distribution is taking place.
Well first we need to understand what is meant by distribution.The word distribution is used when market use to go up fast on low vol and then tanks on high Vol.It means that player who wanted to come out of the position they are stuck in takes the market up with Low Vol and then takes it down selling their holding with High Vol.
It also means that market players , known as stornger hands, wants to quit from the market and hence they are selling it to small investor who do not know where market is heading and thus making them a scapegoat.
Now what we need to look at is, whether the market went up on Low Vol and tanking on High Vol?I think that is the only way one can define Distribution.Taking market on Low Vol as stronger has not to buy more and hence Low Vol otherwise they have to first sell what they bought to take the market up and hence Low Vol and market goes down on high Vol as they are selling their core holding which they wants to sell at anyhow.......
The view there was that stronger players were taking this upmove as a chance to move out of the market as they feel that market will tank more and make a new bottom.
Now we have often heard from analyst stocks are going from weaker hands to stronger hands or from stronger hands to weaker hands.
So one of the member was having a view that the stocks are going to WEAKER hands from STRONGER hands as he felt that marker has runup enough and that the intermidiate TOP has been made and market will go below previous low.
I do not buy that view and I have reasons to believe that.I am writing the point here why I feel the otherway.
1)The valuations are so low that Bulls has the courage to move the market at WILL and move the market and stocks up and hence our market is still a SELL is not accepted by everyone(e.g.FII,DII,HNI,HF etc).This has not happened in last 15 months which has happened on Wed.(This type of movement use to happen in BULL Market if one remember properly.)
2)The global scenario is improving and hence bears are not able to sell their story of a prolonged Bear market which can last for YEARS.
3)Market is oversold very heavily in futures perticularly in Nifty.
4)Indian Economy is showing sign of consolidation and there can be no more casualty from hereon , not atleast much bigger to take the market back to 8k or below.
I also personally thinks that , at this level where the prices are down by almost 90% and over in Cash gr and in A gr it is also almost 70-80% down , there can be no distribution taking place but only accumalation can take place.If we just take a logical view , then say, what one need to do in Jaihind Pro or PSL Ltd where the value has come down drastically and what the stronger hand has to distribute at this level?I am surprised by this view that stronger hand is selling and stocks are going to weaker hands!......at no point I am getting convinced at this price level that stronger hand has to sell their holding to weaker hands........
I feel and view that stronger hands are not that much weak to sell their holding as soon as the stocks doubles as seen in this rally as many stocks have doubled from their lows.If stronger player has come into the play then they will target for much higher return and there is no alarm in global economy that they should shed their holdings.......now and so soon......
I am sometimes surprised to see these type of view and some times makes me laugh at it.
I think the upmove is still intact and we will see more new highs from hereon.
I again reiterate my stand which is ofcourse my view that SENSEX can cross the previous high by Dec 2010.I have written these a week or so before and I am glad to read that one of the stock market site who write only fundamental view has wrote on its site that 21k can be crossed by Dec 2010 if UPS again comes to power.
It is known to all who read my blog that I do not believe in technicals.I have written many times here and elsewhere that market operators are not fool to let one earn in day trading.They sit with a technical analyst and move the stock in such a way that your SL(Stop Loss)is LOST......One can try that on terminal.Put a SL and it will be eaten up invariably and then the stock will go up.
Someone told me that our players makes the chart instead the chart showing the way how market will pan out.I said then why we are following charts?If Indian Market players are so smart to move market and makes the chart then no need to follow technicals.
Whatever may be the case but after 15 long months we are seeing that Bulls have made inroads in bear DEN......