STATUTORY NOTICE:Buy At Your Own Risk....Due Diligence is a must....therefore it is advisable to act cautiously and cross check the matters..from other sources, before taking any investment decision and without assinging any liabilty to me...the owner of this blog...
I may or may not have any personal interest in any call which I give and hence take your own decision...
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Friends, I have been writing time and again that take loss.One need to be ready to take loss.It is not all profit in market. It is not said casualy that if one makes 20% return in market then you are a good investor. Remember one thing.There is no exit in stock market.Once you are in, you never come out.That is why I keep on saying, don't keep on putting all your money in market.It is not a good idea to put all your money, rather saving , in stock market.Keep some money in fixed deposit that one will need in bad times.Never borrow money and invest that is a very bad idea.Hope of making the loss is very bad thing to do.It never helps.If atall one wants to make up the loss, invest in bluechips which have been beaten down or pick good Cos with good management and good future.Investing in smallcaps never helps or averaging will never help.Once the stock is down it is very hard to go up in next bull run. Either you keep on infusing money to recover the loss or you keep on putting money to invest more. Every new bull run has new favourite stock to give multibaggers returns. Once a stock becomes a multibagger and starts showing loss, it is gone.Some other stocks takes its place. If one has bought a stock at high price because of whatever earnings or great future it had and then in bear market it goes down, and it starts showing bad results , then most probably it is out of favour stock. Why players will let investor make up the loss?Once small investors are in at high price , why they would let small investors make their money back?Had they gone mad that they would let small investor come out of it and they buy it and take a loss?...NO...that is never possible. Ye bahut hi simple bat hai .....ek bar small investor ko phasa diya hai , penny stock mian jo bahut upper gaya hai , koi story ki vajah se, usko phir se upper kyon le jayenge?Pagal kutte ne kata hai un operators ko, ki wahi stock wapas upper le jake , small investors ko nikal ne ka mauka dega?Vo tumko kyon nikale ga jis main tum high price pe leke phas chuke ho?Unless, they have interest in certain stocks, they will never take interest in it again. Understand the market.How players play it.Our makret and even world market is played at the whims of players.Have you seen what happened on Wednesday last week?In 1 hr market showed a volatilty of 400 points and that is 125 points in nifty! It still says that our market is in hand of players and it will remain forever like that. Always be ready to take a loss.Sell stock as soon as it goes down by 15-20% unless you are convinced about the future of the stock. I have been saying time and again, it is not easy to make money in stock market and it is a dangerous game.Even when a master like Nemish Shah says that 2 or 3 stocks can give huge return out of 10 , then what to say of ourselves?We have seen that Nemish Shah of Enam Sec, hold Rico Auto since many years, he holds Super Spinning since many years, he holds Kar Mobiles since many years, he is holding Investment and Precision Casting since many years and still they haven't run at all, and he is the master in terms of even Rakesh Jhunjhunwala then just imagine our fate in stock market!Even Peter Lynch has said the same thing.Not all stock gives multibagger return. Try to understand the risk in investing in Midcap and Smallcaps....... Only 2 or 3 stocks become successful call out of 10 and that happens with the Masters who are there in the market everyday and know the pulse of the market and what is happening in our market and internatioanl market then just imgane our fate! One need to be ready to take the loss and sell the stock and should be able to buy something else which can give better returns.Get ready to take the loss of 50% OR even 60% and switch over and make sure you buy a good Co.If you buy again a penny stock you will see the same fate. Friends, I am no GOD. I also make mistakes and hence don't take my word as a final word.Pathar ki lakir nahi hai jo main likhta hun. Loads of stocks has not performed on my given call.It is all how Co does and what market thinks.
Friends, There are things which has come up which makes me believe that market can surprise investors for whole year. Well, what I am writing is somewhere I read and hence I would not say that it is my observation.But when I chekced the history I found them good and hence I am writing those traits here.
1) 2012 is a leap year and market has moved up in leap year.
2) If January HIGH is crossed then market remain up for the whole year.
I put more importance on the second one because in 2008 even it was a leap year market tanked but barring that leap year market went up for other leap year and here comes the 2nd trait and that is if January high is crossed then market remains bullish.
Well the other reason for me becoming bullish is PMO ( Prime Minister Office) has started taking measures for bringing back the eonomy back on track.That is a huge positive for me....and that is one of the prime reason why I have become bullish.PMO has come out with a list which needs to be done for economy.
I have written many times here, the government needs to take steps and we will be back to normal.
FII has invested some 10,000 cr in the month of January and that has helped rupee coming back below 50 and should be back to 45-46 soon.
That is why I feel that market can surprise investors for whole year.
Another trend that I saw on Wednesday this week makes me feel that BULLS ARE BACK.I may be wrong in my reading but that is what I feel.What happened on Wednesday , I use to see in past years in 2005-2006-2007..... If one can observe , on Wednesday this week, market was up by over 100 points and suddenly around 1.30 pm makret tanked and went down in negative territory remained there for almost and hour and then made a comeback after 2.30 and by the end of the day it was up by 83 points. That is intra day I call it a intraday correction where for once market players will make people think that now market is gone and profit booking has started for the huge runup and scare investors to sell everything in F&O and also in delivary.That is a ploy to deceive investors so that those who bought at lower levels will sell thinking that sell now and buy lateron 20-30% down.But NO, that didn't happen and market made a comeback the same day. These trend I have seen in 2005-2006-2007 where market will go down in between the day and will close in positive territory gain at the end of the day .The trend I am observing says that Bulls are trying to see what they can do , whether they can do what they wants and after a very long time they saw that they can do it and that has added the confidence that now is the time for them to take the reins in their hands.These also implies that bears has become week as bulls can move the market at their will........ It is still at a vey nascent stage but Bulls are exprimenting and once they found back their confidence then no looking back. I feel that corrections will keep on coming up with positive bias ..........
Oil and gas company BP recently released its annual Energy Outlook and many of its projections should be viewed with concern.
According to the company, carbon emissions will increase 28 percent by 2030, a dire forecast for those trying to reverse the effects of climate change. Moreover, renewable energy sources — such as wind and solar — will contribute less than 10 percent of global energy output in the coming years despite growing at least eight percent a year between now and 2030.
The growth in emerging economies like China and Brazil will lead to a 39 percent increase in global energy demand by 2030, BP forecasts. China will become increasingly reliant on foreign oil, importing as much as 80 percent of its oil needs in the next 20 years. But it would be second to Europe, which is expected to import 94 percent of its oil and 80 percent of the natural gas it consumes. India could very likely take in 91 percent of its crude oil from abroad.
Alternatively, the United States could become almost entirely energy independent by 2030, says BP. As the country expands its domestic natural gas production, the U.S. will buy less foreign oil, causing imports to fall to levels not seen since 1990. Natural gas production has come under intense scrutiny because of its environmental risks. The drilling process used to bring the gas to the surface is widely known as "fracking" and it involves pumping sand, chemicals and gallons of water underground to break apart the rock and release the gas. The Obama administration recently gave a stinging rebuke to the industry by rejecting the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline, which would have brought 700,000 barrels per day of supply from Canada's oil sands projects to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. In last month's State of the Union Address, Obama said he supported natural gas investment but pressed for more regulations to ensure the safety of natural gas drilling.
"We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly one hundred years, and my Administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy," Obama said in his address. "Experts believe this will support more than 600,000 jobs by the end of the decade. And I'm requiring all companies that drill for gas on public lands to disclose the chemicals they use. America will develop this resource without putting the health and safety of our citizens at risk."
The U.S. has been pursuing energy independence since the 1973 Arab oil embargo forced a shortage of oil imports and caused gasoline prices to skyrocket at the pump. Bloomberg reports that the growing U.S. energy industry could fulfill the country's energy demands in 20 years. Natural gas production has increased 11 percent from 2007 to 2010 and domestic crude production has risen to 5.7 million barrels a day - its highest output in eight years, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
BP predicts natural gas will be the fastest growing fossil fuel by 2030, growing 2.1 percent per year. Energy from coal will increase by 1.2 percent each year, contributing more than 25 percent of total energy output by 2030.
Daniel Yergin, the Pulitzer-prize winning author of "The Prize" whose new book "The Quest" explores energy security, renewable sources and the world's shrinking oil supply, says the North American energy production revolution taking place could alter the marketplace forever.
You've got a Western Hemisphere that by 2030 may not be importing any oil from the Eastern Hemisphere," Yergin tells The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task in the above video.
Yergin says even as the U.S. and other North American countries reduce their imports of oil and become more energy efficient, countries like China and India are consuming more energy as their citizens enter the working class and can afford Western luxuries like a personal car.
"While they [China, India] are increasingly concerned about climate change, they're more concerned about economic growth and poverty in their countries," he asserts. "They both rely heavily on coal and will increase their consumption of coal. This growth in greenhouse gases is riding on the back of global economic growth."
Friends, India Glycols has remained my favourite stocks. I have been recomending from day one of my blog started. It has come out with another excellent results.But one needs to read everything when one see the ressults on bse site. I know many would have not seen the notes at the end of the results.Make a habit to read what the notes says. The notes at the end of the results says that as rupee as appreciated by Feb 3rd 2012, the foriegn loss taken into account of Rs 48 cr can be reversed and that will spike up the bottomline by 17-18 eps in last qr. I think for 3 qr, the eps has already reached 27 and if we see again an EPS for 8-10 in last qr , that will make 37-40 EPS and if we add 48cr which can be and will be reversed as I see rupee not going back to 54 level then India Glycols can end the year with an EPS of around 55-60. The negative in India Glycols is a huge debt of 1400 cr and I have faith in the management that they will trim it down as much and as early as possible.
I have mentioned Intec Capital here maybe only one or two times and Intec has also come out with excellent results.I like the sector which it is in and also feel that Sanjeev Goyal is a dynamic CM.
I would like to mention here Jubilant Ind which I have recomended in the list which I gave on the eve of Christmas. It has also posted excellent results and has gone up from around 170 to 220-222 , but I feel it is still a buy at this level.Jubilant Ind is grossly undervalued in the sense that it is posting excellent results qr to qr and an excellent management at the helm of affairs......
Friends,It now looks like we will not see 3900 now.Maybe we will not see forever.But I can't guarentee you.After all it is market.FII's has invested 10,000 cr in the month of January. I feel that one should start investing in SIP manner where there is a value. I have written about looking at B L Kashyap and Cronimet Alloy.I would like to draw the attention ofmy readers towards HBL Syetem Ltd which is at 17 and has consolidated for long at that level and I feel that it should now go up. B L Kashyap Ltd is an excellent Infra Co which is available at 130 if we take it at 10 paid up where 70% stake is held by promoters.So is HBL System Ltd where again promoters holds more then 70% stake and are increasing the holding if one can have a look at the SHP.
Stride Arcolab got a Windfall amount of Rs 2000 by selling generic operation to other Co.
"Strides Arcolab Sells its Generic Pharmaceuticals Operations in Australia and Southeast Asia to Watson Pharmaceuticals for AU$ 375 Million 24/01/12 11:59
Strides Arcolab Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated January 24, 2012 titled " Strides Arcolab Sells its Generic Pharmaceuticals Operations in Australia and Southeast Asia to Watson Pharmaceuticals for AU$ 375 Million". "
Only the other day I saw on one of the stockmarket website that one of the analyst gave a sell call saying that Mcap is biggger then the sales. That was a wrong analysis as can be seen that market gave a thumbs up for getting a milestone amt of Rs 2000 cr.For a Co whose eq is 58 cr , one can understand what Rs 2000 cr means. Stride Arcolab is becoming cash rich Co. I remember after I gave a call here in Jan 2010, RJ took stake in it .I don't say we need to follow RJ, but when a person of that calibre take stake in one of my many calls, e.g Srei etc....then we have to take note of it. RJ has made mistakes in past, like Tata Infomedia, Aptech and other but still he is one of the most successful investor in India. I feel that Stride Arcolab has a long way to go and should touch 1k and even more.
Vishnu Chem has come out with a poor results citing reason that the Co did not get Chrome Ore , the raw material , for the product in Dec qr and the notes under the results says that Vishnu Chem has been able to get Chrome Ore from second half of Jan this year. This says that management is not working on raw material availability and that is a major concern to me.How can management can't take care of raw material? Well on the ligther part I can say that they could have called Cronimet Alloy mamagement and taken care of that as Cronimet Alloy is in same Chrome Ore field. Now that open up a new scarcity of Chrome Ore and oppertunity for Cronimet Alloy and hence I think at Rs 20.00 , 2 paid up, Cronimet Alloy gives a good entry oppertunity for us, as even if we put 10 paid price , the price becomes Rs 100,which I feel is cheap. For Vishnu Chem, I leave to my readers to take decision what to do with it.They mat decide to hold on or switchover to other stock but personally I didn't like the reason given by the management of lack of raw material( Chrome Ore).If the management wants to deliver results then they should have taken care of that.Only if results will come good then and then only market will discount it hihger and then only QIP can take place at higher level of price and then only the huge debt can be resolved and bottomline will soars up. Well, these can also be a gimmick of management for 1 qr and maybe next qr can come good as they already said that they have been able to get Chrome Ore from mid Jan this year. Now let me peep in readers mind. They think how they can sell Vishnu Chem at 30-40-50% Steep loss.....the mind is not ready to do it.Taking a huge loss is always difficult .Mind always opposes it and hence many times we ends up having a laggard in our PF. Well, here is my way of thinking. Try to find stocks which have been down by 40-50% and switch over from Vishnu,if one wants to do it that way. I gave a call of BL Kashyap at 21 .52 week high is 27 and stock is trading at 13, means 50% discount.One can buy B L Kashyap. Cronimet Alloy 52 week high was 36 and now quoting at 20.That is another stock one can buy from switching over from Vishnu Chem. There are many more such stocks.Find them .... Friends,decision needs to be taken and that too fast.Decide what you want to do and act on it.......
Friends, I am very glad to see that R S Software Ltd has posted an excellent results. 1) Sales went up from 47 cr last year same time to 67 cr this qr.i.e is almost 50% jump in sales. 2)NP went up from 5.63 cr last year same time to 7.63 cr this qr.i.e. is again 50% jump in profit. 3)Hence EPS went from 5.28 to 9.43.....and hence for the 9 months ended EPS ends at 16.55 instead of 12.40...i.e comparing qr to qr..eps jumped almost 80%.....
Management has declared an interim devidend of 10% on good results.
-high dependence on few clients fr revenue e.g. visa
please clear my doubts.
Friends, I got this question from a readers ABC.I have put it on front page so that others can also read it and read my reply as well. I have been writing time and again that please read my reply to comments but I am sure many do not do it and hence taken this oppertunity to write it here so that readers can understand how to look at things and understand the Co and how market price it.
My reply is as below: 1) All his concerns is with the market as well and that is the reason why R S Software Ltd is going cheap.R S Software is quoting at 2.5P/E.....with and eps of 20.....why?It is a debt free Co and divident paying Co .It is in Payment Gateway sector which is still in nascent stage in India then why market is not discounting high? The reason is market has the same concerns like ABC and that is why it is not priced high. 2)Before asking any question one needs to go through the latest AR and Co website which is easily available at bse website.Go through who the management is, who is at the helm of affairs , what experiance they have got , what is their future plan and read the risk and oppertunity discussed by the management ,etc. Go to website and click each and every link and read them and see whether your concerns are addressed or not.
Let me tell you all , that when I give a call here, I do everything what I have written here.What you get is a ready stock which can give big returns if everything goes well.That will always remian in hand of the market and how Co does in future.We have to take that calculative RISK and invest in a Co which is showing promise and that is how multibaggers are picked.Take chance.......there is no sureshot way that we will end up with a multibagger every time we pick a stock.After all it is a business and one bad decision and it cost the Co very dearly. If one wants to derisk the investment better buy TCS /Infy/Wipro......where there can be no question asked........
and now ABC's concerns:
1)-low promoter holding....In IT Cos we usually see low promoters holding.But the positive here is the CM, Ranjit Rai Jain is constantly buying from the market .This can also be seen through bse website.Click Filing and other Info tab and one can see that he is buying......
05/10/11 Rajnit Rai Jain B 15,200
29/09/11 Rajnit Rai Jain B 10,500
26/09/11 Rajnit Rai Jain B 9,600
23/09/11 Rajnit Rai Jain B 26,500
22/09/11 Rajnit Rai Jain B 38,670
I have copied paste it here so that readers can see where to look after walking through what I have written. This is what I call baby sitting......I can't do for each and every stock.That is for readers to do.
But if CM is buying from the market, I don't have to teach what that means.
2)-no competitve advantage to preserver the margin and -high dependence on few clients fr revenue e.g. visa
For this concern ,one can get the answer while reading the latest AR which is already posted at bse site and going to Cos website.Read it throughly and try to make out what is coming up.
I again write, read what I have written thoroughly , read each and every sentence 2-3 times.Each sentence and each para has its meaning.Read again and again. I have often seen that readers don't understand what I am trying to say and ends up the otherway round.......and that goes for everything I write .......
BY TEAM VCC The Singapore-based PE firm, founded by former Warburg Pincus India MD, has been bottom-fishing in its portfolio firms.
Nalanda Capital has increased its holdings in Exide Industries to 5.01 per cent, according to a company disclosure to the Bombay Stock Exchange. The private equity firm, which focuses on public-listed Indian companies, already held 4.59 per cent stake as on December 31, 2011. It boosted its holding marginally in the past few weeks to 4.91 per cent and bought 0.10 per cent afresh to take the total holding to 5.01 per cent. Nalanda Capital is estimated to have invested around Rs 40 crore ($8 million) this month to acquire the additional 0.42 per cent in Exide.
At 12:51 pm, shares of Exide Industries were trading at Rs 127.80 on the BSE, up 1.59 per cent from the previous close.
At this price, Nalanda’s existing equity stake is worth around Rs 544 crore or $106 million.
Nalanda started building its exposure in Exide, the country’s largest battery maker, around one year ago and held a little over 1 per cent as of March 31, 2011. It bought more shares in the three months ended June 30, 2011, and once again bought a chunk of shares in the last quarter.
According to VCCircle estimates, Nalanda Capital has invested a total of over Rs 510 crore ($100 million) in the company over a period of time, making Exide its biggest portfolio company in terms of exposure.
Nalanda’s heavy bet on Exide is interesting, given the level of exposure. The Singapore-based PE firm, founded by former Warburg Pincus India MD Pulak Prasad, has around $875 million under management through two funds and Exide comprises around 11.5 per cent of its total assets.
Kolkata-based Exide manufactures and sells lead acid storage batteries for automotive, industrial and submarine applications. It is the largest player in the business and much ahead of the No. 2 firm Amara Raja Batteries, which is backed by Sequoia Capital.
Nalanda Capital’s Strategy
Part of the latest investment could be to average out the high cost of acquisition per share in Exide early last year. But the latest initiative is in line with the PE firm putting fresh money in its existing portfolio companies as stock market valuations have tanked to near two-year low.
Last week, Nalanda Capital increased its stake in Ratnamani Metals and Tubes Ltd to 10.47 per cent. The firm has been building its exposure to the steel tubes and pipes maker Ratnamani since early 2010. Its holding crossed 1 per cent in the quarter ended June 2010 and it had been slowly increasing its exposure in the firm ever since.
A fortnight ago, the firm also bought an additional 0.16 per cent in Great Eastern Shipping Company. The PE firm had been building stake in Great Eastern Shipping for the past six months. It had apparently acquired 2.14 per cent stake in the shipping firm during July-September quarter and hiked it to 4.95 per cent by December 31, 2011.
Last November, Nalanda Capital had increased its holding in AIA Engineering Ltd (which manufactures and designs engineering components) to 6.3 per cent. The PE firm acquired the additional 1.2 million shares or 1.27 per cent stake for a total consideration of Rs 37.2 crore. This had taken its total exposure to the company to around Rs 200 crore.
My Comments: Friends, Nalanda Capital an fin institution readers needs to keep a tab on.Wherever Nalanda has invested the stock has not gone down much or are faring well. Try to find out where Nalanda has invested.One can find some in this article itself. Nalanda has increased the stake in Exide from 1% in Mar 2011 to 5% and that reconfirms my bullishness in HBL Power and Pondy Oxide.
BY SONAM GULATI Current trends in online payments infrastructure from Techcircle's Online Payments & Loyalty Conference.
A bustling e-commerce industry in India has naturally thrown up a vast market for e-payments. Although the presence of a huge consumer base without plastic money means new modes of offline payment have cropped up, e-payment is certainly the way to go as the market matures. Techcircle’s Online Payments & Loyalty Conference, held in Delhi on January 20, brought together the who’s who of the e-payment industry in India and saw them discussing some key and defining trends in this space.
The opening session on Online Payments Infrastructure, moderated by Vijay Shekhar Sharma of the mobile Internet firm One97 Communications, brought out the current trends such as the big switch (read – credit to direct debit as a payment mode), the nascent mobile payment environment and the security issues which still prove to be a hurdle in building consumer confidence. According to Nishanth Chandran, CEO and co-founder of EBS India (one of the biggest online payment providers), the industry has evolved over the past few years as compared to 2005 when most of the people did not understand what online payment is all about. “Today, the status has considerably changed. The bottom line is that we have to make the process as easy as possible for the consumers. Otherwise, none of it would survive,” he said. Similar viewpoints were echoed by other panellists who emphasised that gaining customer trust was the most important factor in online shopping. “What has actually changed is that now the base of shopping for commodities is broadening. People are ready to take the risk, but they only buy from the websites they trust more,” said MN Srinivasu, co-founder and director of BillDesk. Another big change has also taken place in the online payment space. Initially, it was a credit card-based payment system which did evolve considerably with the development of more pre-paid or direct debit options. Vivek Nayak, COO of Avenues India, which operates the country’s largest online payment gateway through CCAvenue, said five years ago, credit cards had the lion’s share of the market in terms of payment mode but today, debit cards are taking over. He also went on to share insights into other modes of payment – cash cards are just new entrants in the market while mobile payment gateways have failed to take off in India as of now. “Debit cards and net banking exceeding the popularity of credit cards has got to do something with the Indian mentality of using the money that is visible in the account, rather than buying things on ‘credit’. Also, the number of bank accounts is not necessarily equal to the number of credit cards in the country and at the end of the day, convenience matters most,” said Nayak. The panellists also discussed security issues related to online payment, which have been a bane for the industry. However, the recent initiative by the Reserve Bank of India to introduce a one-time password (OTP) has gathered mixed reviews. While merchants argue that they lose business and face flagging customer interest due to the additional step, the counter-argument notes that it is just one additional step to ensure transaction security, which in turn, will actually benefit customers. Chandran of EBS said, “OTP is a good thing from the security point of view but it does irritate consumers. Ease of payment is what matters most and OTP adds up to the number of steps that a buyer must undergo to complete an online transaction. Also, numbers say even if one step is increased in the whole process, sales go down by 20 per cent.” When OTP was initially introduced, the industry witnessed a dip in transactions, but consumers started to accept it as a regular thing for ensuring security, he added. According to Nayak, the key lies in educating customers about the security aspect and how it helps the whole online payment system. Talking about the emerging trends, he added that micropayments and government payments would be the big area for e-payments in the future.
My Comments: My dark horse here is R S Software Ltd.Debt free Co.Gives dividend.Mcap 54 cr , sales 188 cr. Remained steady when market was down and available at P/E of 2.5.......
Friends, There can be many reasons for declaring a Bonus. 1)Management wants to make the eq capital base bigger so that they can apply for bigger orders. 2) Maangement is bullish on future. They have been able to create a niche product which will increase the sales and hence the profitibility. But I feel that this bonus will do no good in ST , maybe for atleast 1 yr.I may prove wrong but that is what I feel. The reason I feel it will not do good for investors is, with doubling of eq, the earning will take a beating.The bottomline will become less.EPS will still go further down as eq will double.Unless, KPIT shows exponential growth this year , with eq base becoming bigger, eps will shrink and hence I feel for 1 yr down the line KPIT will be a laggard.With bonus people will have more shares in hands and hence the liquidity will increase.Investor will sell the bonus shares to bookprofit. Freinds, that is what I always try to write here.Be alert and try to figure out what can be the implications of what is happening in the Co.One need to constantly track Cos where you have invested.Keep track on sectors and try to find out whether that sector is going out of favour and sell stocks and switchover.I can't keep writing for each shares what to do with it. I may prove wrong about my view in KPIT but I feel switchover from KPIT to something else will be a better idea.Rest all depends upon individuals......
Has the market made the botton?Will it not go below 4500 again? I was constantly reading what Fin Min was speaking, what Monteksingh was saying ,what is coming out from RBI office. The D day came and we got a CRR cut of .5 basis.I read that RBI will now think on growth in recent past and I was not surprised to see a CRR cur at 0.5 basis. Th repo rate has remained unchanged.That needs to get cut as well.Ofcourse, CRR cut will increase the liquidity and banks will have more money to land, to be precise Rs 32,000 cr, and that will help Infra and Auto sector and ofcourse Banking sector. That means that banks will have Rs 32,000 cr more to lend which will go in Infra and Auto. This week was important in the sense that the general policy was going to be declared by RBI.This week was also important because market heavy weight like Ril Ind, players call it the King, result was also going to be declared. Ril result was not upto market expectation and RBI's CRR cut was not enough for market to applaude it. But still market went up on Tuesday, ignoring Ril bad results and chreeing RBI CRR cut in anticipation that RBI will take further steps in future to stimulate the growth of the economy. It is still a long way to go.There will be many ups and down in our market before it makes a clear indication that bear market is over. Retial participation is almost negligible .I am seeing very low Vols in trade in market.5 shares or 50 shares or 500-600 shares in counter like Jubilant Ind , India Glycols etc are very low which shows disinterest of retail participation. And that is why I feel , it will take time for the market to move up.The consolidation phase is still not over. When market is finding its bottom, how one can think of consolidation taking place? Let first market make sure the bottom is made.Then let it consolidate and then let Volumn goes up and then think of any good upside. I was reading Sudarshan Sukhani who says that once 5400 is crossed , market can touch 6400 in no time. He may prove right and he may prove wrong.One never knows what market will do. Let us see what is there in store for us. But I am getting a solace when I read this sentence of RBI Governor Mr Subbarao:
"He said “the CRR is the most effective instrument for permanent liquidity injections over a sustained period of time. The reduction can also be viewed as a reinforcement of the guidance that future rate actions will be towards lowering them.”"
Here he clrealy suggests that future rate cut will be lowering them.......so rate hike has reached the saturation point , which I have written here couple of time,and now only way is rate cut. Rate hike has reached the peak and there will be no futher hike in rate.That is also a positive for market .
Friends, I am always amazed why it is so? The reasons are as below: All our Lords which we are told to follow are KINGS sons or King themselves.... 1) Lord Rama - King's son ( Reason I took first Rama name is ,he is the first Lord, first Ramayana came and then Mahabharat) 2)Lord Krsihna - Son of King family. 3) Mahavir ( Jain Dharma)- King's son 4) Guatam Budhha- King's Son 5) Ashoka The great ( Preacher of Buodh religion) was himself a KING. 6) Chatrapati Veer Shivaji - Again Kings Son 7) Pandavas- All 5 Kings Son
and many more! Is it so that we have to follow someone coming from King's family ?So why one have to follow them when they do not come from a simple family? Why not Ram Krishna Paramhansa or Swami Vivekananda .Again Ram Krishna Paramhansa comes first because he was the mentor of Swami Vivekananda.
The question that arises is, why we have to follow what these people who were Kings or sons of Kings?
Why these all Lords are coming from Kingsely family and not from a poor or average family?Had anyone questioned that?Why our religious books shows someone who is coming from a King family?Whether all these people were there or not, means they really exist or not is another debatble topic but whoever wrote these books, why they showed person taking birth in King's family? And the anamoly is such that Mahavir, Guatam Buddha, Ashoka The Great , Shivaji all existed.We know that, even if we do not believe , for one second, that Lord Rama or Lord Krishna ever took birth on earth. Then the question arises, why great people take birth in King family?
For that one have to read Rajneesh.I have read many books of Rajnesh and I think the reason he gave is valid.I would not like to go in any details about it here but if anyone wants to find it out then either he needs to read or hear Rajnesh.
Though Rajnesh is critisized for many things and I also agree with some of them, still I am great admireror of Rajnesh. One need to read him.He is excellent.He himself was very well read person and that is why he was able to speak on various aspects of life and religion.I would suggest my readers to read him.Read just one book.You will love him.
But coming back to the topic, why we have to follow King's path?If we are suppose to follow what they did then there are many other things that needs to follow of them .Why that needs not be followed?
I know the topic that I have raised is debatable and there can be many arguements but you can say that I like doing that. I love discussing things because that widens one's horizen of thinking.It sharpens one mind.
Well, I will not write anything more here.I have put a thought and I hope readers will ponder upon it and write whatever they think.I will love to read it.....It is a food of thought......
BY JAMES LAMONT / FT.COM The emergency stimulus measures are in response to widespread criticism of policy paralysis & fall in economic growth.
India is to launch a $35bn wave of public sector investment to reverse a decline in the fast-growing economy’s growth rate and return it closer to double digits, according to the prime minister’s office.
The emergency stimulus measures are in response to widespread criticism of policy paralysis in New Delhi and a dramatic fall in economic growth to 7 per cent from an earlier 9 per cent. The government of Manmohan Singh has ordered 17 state-owned companies to use money currently held in reserve to invest in a mixture of infrastructure projects and overseas energy purchases. “They are sitting on piles of cash,” said one official of the urgent need to trigger a mobilisation of currently “inactive” resources to boost confidence in the economy, and promote India’s energy security. The move is also an attempt to prompt private-sector companies – which have expressed reservations about investing in the domestic market – to follow suit. But some observers have criticised the move as a throwback to the “old formula” of the 1970s when then prime minister Indira Gandhi used public infrastructure spending to boost growth. India’s top policymakers are worried about the economy’s loss of momentum, and ebbing business confidence after a dismal year characterised by political bickering, high profile corruption scandals and an exit of foreign capital. Companies, such as the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Coal India and the National Mineral Development Corporation,have signed agreements to spend as much as $35bn of their cash or bank balances over the fiscal year starting in April to expand their operations. The sum is almost twice the $19bn foreign direct investment into India in 2011. Among the proposed measures, Coal India, which had a successful initial public offering last year has been asked to “actively consider investment” in allied sectors such as road, railways, waterways and power to improve the transport of coal. Bharat Electronics Limited, a state-owned defence company, is considering a buy-back of equity to utilise its surplus resources. Fast-tracked investments, mainly in the coal and oil sectors, will be monitored quarterly by Mr Singh’s own office to prevent backsliding. Of the total, Rs400bn ($7bn) has been identified for investments overseas to buy assets like coal, gas and oil. ONGC has undertaken to spend Rs205bn in foreign investment in the coming fiscal year; Coal India has agreed to Rs60b. The move by the Singh administration also reflects India’s determination to push for higher growth in spite of uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery and renewed anxiety about the performance of eurozone economies. Senior officials acknowledge that conservatism has gripped the public sector as officials fear repercussions of their decisions – as a result they have been sitting on cash piles and earning high interest rates – should they end in controversy or failure. The result is that they are not leveraging their resources to pursue faster growth. At the same time, corruption scandals, notably in the fast-growing telecoms sector, have widened the distance between the bureaucracy and private sector as top officials fear the spread of “crony capitalism”. The outlook for India’s economy is clouded by policy inaction, a deteriorating fiscal situation, weak balance of payments and an economic slowdown, say many economists. “The domestic economy deserves a push that can be provided by the government,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Mumbai-based Care Ratings. ”The focus will be on project expenditure this time to provide a boost to the infrastructure sector.” The decision to boost investments by the public sector was taken at a meeting earlier this month between 26 heads of utilities and the prime minister’s office. “Public sector investment can provide stimulus to the economy,” said an official summary of the meeting. Companies which hold significant cash and bank balances draw up credible investment programmes, and implement them with vigour.”
If The Economist is to be believed, the India rupee is the most undervalued currency in the world. If that’s the case, why are foreigners avoiding it like the plague? Either the index is wrong or the foreigners don’t know what they are doing. In its latest version of the Big Mac Index, a spurious index based on the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac in various countries, the rupee is 61 percent undervalued since Big Macs (or the Indian equivalent, since they don’t sell the real Big Mac here) cost that much less here. If this undervaluation figure is right, the rupee should be quoted realistically around Rs 32 right now when it is actually at Rs 51 to the US dollar. The Big Mac index is based on the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) – the purchase cost of the same item in different countries. If a given loaf of bread costs 25 cents in India and $2 in the US, a $1 income in India is worth $8 in the US, assuming one only has to buy bread.
In the Big Mac Index, a spurious index based on the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac in various countries, the rupee is 61 percent undervalued. AFP The Economist carries this PPP analogy and uses the price of the Big Mac in various countries to check if currencies are undervalued or overvalued. Thus, if an item costs $10 in the US, and $5 in China and $1 in India, the Chinese currency is undervalued by 50 percent and the Indian one by 90 percent. In the latest computation of the Big Mac Index published by The Economist, the Big Mac costs $4.2 in the US and $1.62 in India – making the latter 61.5 percent cheaper than the US. Ergo: the rupee is undervalued to the same extent. Similarly, the Chinese Big Mac is worth $2.44, which is 42 percent lower than the US price. So, by definition, US trade warriors feel vindicated in their belief that China is using a weak yuan policy to export to the US. The Swiss franc is the most overvalued currency, since the Big Mac costs $6.81 in Switzerland. That’s 62 percent overvaluation. India’s black money wizards should avoid eating too many Big Macs in Switzerland when they are depositing their ill-gotten wealth in that country. But the Big Mac Index has come under serious criticism from economists who say that the raw PPP index needs to be at least adjusted for relative costs. When labour costs in China and India are so much below American costs, prices will reflect this reality. In the 30 July edition, therefore, The Economist adjusted raw Big Mac prices with the country’s per capita income, and came up with completely different interpretations. Once deflated by lower average country incomes, the Big Mac Index shows more realistic currency values. Thus, against an undervaluation of 53 percent in July this year, the adjusted index for India showed a rupee undervaluation of only 8 percent. On 30 July, the Big Mac (which is chicken based in India against beef elsewhere) cost Rs 84 ($1.89 in terms of the dollar values then). Today, after the rupee depreciation, it is $1.62. Since July, the rupee has actually depreciated by another 15-20 percent in nominal terms. This means the gross undervaluation must be in the region of 20-25 percent. However, this does not tally well with the Reserve Bank’s real effective exchange rate (REER) for the rupee – a measure of how exchange rates have moved against a basket of currencies weighted by trade and adjusted for relative inflation. Given how the rupee has moved against the US dollar and other currencies, and also given our higher rate of inflation, the Reserve Bank says that the rupee’s REER is now just 3.13 percent more (as of December 2011) than what it was in 2004-05. This means the rupee has appreciated by this small percentage in REER terms in the last seven years in real terms. The Big Mac Index would suggest that the rupee need to appreciate another 20-25 percent to reach its ideal value. The bottomline is this: there is no real value that one can safely assign to any currency. While fundamentals like inflation and trade deficits matter – capital flows can make all the difference. The rupee’s real value is what the market is willing to pay for it at any point of time. As we noted recently, it will have a rough ride, never mind what the Big Mac says.
After reading the above article, I can say that Rupee is hammered or let battered delibaretly for reason best known to RBI and Politicians. Even though the auther says don't count on it,still Rupee needs to appreciate by 25% and that is around 40 against dollar.
Jan 17, 2012 By Binoo K. JohnThe other reason is the huge price slash in books (a minimum of 25 percent) if you order them through portals like flipkart.com, or infibeam.com or makemeread.com. (Disclaimer: This writer has a stake in makemeread.com)
In times of recession and decline of the old order, obit writers get furiously busy, putting up the right epitaphs, analysing the causes of the big fall and blaming the universal forces that shut out another old tradition. In this group of threatened oldies is the indie bookshop which has been on the hit-list for over two years now.
So when another book shop decides to close down, in this case, Pune’s 63-year-old Manney’s (Read more here), it is a sign that the time of reckoning is almost here. Manik Mani, the owner, says the decision to close down has nothing to do with sales but that he is tired and needs a break and his daughter is not old enough to take over.
Beneath all this it is quite clear that sales would have been dropping at Manney’s just as it has been at other book shops across the country and around the world. In New Delhi, the well-known shops to have closed down are Bookworm (Connaught Place), Oxford Book shop (Connaught Place) and Book Shop (Khan Market), apart from other smaller shops.
Many such shops will put up a brave face and hold on for some more time but in another two years, book shops operating in premium markets in cities would have all closed down. Or they may remain open only by losing money. The primary reason is that rentals in prime areas will be much more than the profits made from sales of books and stationery, making it more profitable for the shop owner to rent out the space.
How does it work? How can portals discount prices to such an extent without bursting their own bottomlines or net income? How long will internet book sales boom?
Though book sales are shifting drastically to internet portals, the fact is that most portals sell books for a loss or without profit. For example, on flipkart.com, the price of Poor Economics: Rethinking Poverty and the way to end it, by Abhijit Banerjee and Ester Duflo, sells for Rs 321, an unimaginable discount of Rs 175 on the actual cost price of Rs 499 which you would have had to pay if you bought the book at Manney’s.
The reason why Manney’s has to close down can be clearly seen here.
What many people do is go to shops like Manney’s, which they have been frequenting for a long time, note down the new books, go home and order it from any of the portals. For some time now Manik Mani would have wondered why his favourite customers are not picking up anything. His shop would have become a place to browse and select, a sort of brick-and-mortal search engine for the buyer. He unknowingly offers that service free, because unlike earlier, even the ardent book lover is not going to buy much from him since he has a much cheaper option.
Yes, Manik can order some old books for you and tell you when Thomas Mann’s Magic Mountain Everyman Library edition will be available in his shop. By that time it will be available on internet book shops as well. How does it work for Infibeam or Flipkart and Rediff or the Indiatimes store and other start ups?
Flipkart gets Poor Economics at a 35-40 percent discount from the distributors, just like Manik. Prakash Books, which is the north Indian distributor of Penguin India, will be getting all books at a 50 percent discount from Penguin or other publishers and will be passing down 10-20 percent to the retailer.
Here’s the flip side. Retailers take a 25 percent profit on sales while Flipkart or Infibeam pass them on to the customer since there is no rental or warehousing cost.
It is not that simple, though. Once you grow big like Flipkart of Infibeam, warehousing is a must. Also, staff costs go up. Since customers are not charged for delivery within India, Flipkart and Infibeam finally end up losing money on each book they sell. When Flipkart sells one copy of Poor Economics, they will be poorer by Rs 30 at least, according to this author’s calculation.
Internet stores don’t make money on book sales. Then what are they looking for?
What the big internet retailers are interested in is a big database of internet buyers who, in the future, can be targeted for various marketing strategies.An internet portal’s primary worth or valuation depends on how many customers it has and only secondly the turnover.
That is also the reason why once they get a database of half a million they will have to turn to selling electronic items on which profits are better. If they lose Rs 30 on selling one copy of Poor Economics how much will their daily losses be? How long can this be sustained?
Flipkart has enough cash reserves as of now. But if they do not get a good valuation and a buyer in the next two years, the portal will be in trouble. Its spends on multi-media advertising must also be hugely adding to its burden.
This is also the inherent drawback in taking huge venture funding. Venture capitalists are on the lookout for valuations, not sales or proper delivery of books. Nor, in this case, are they interested in the spread of the reading habit in India.
To deliver a book of less than 500 gm from Delhi to Kolkata will cost at least Rs 30 for Flipkart or Infibeam through an Indian courier company.
To cut down on costs, Flipkart has hired its own distributing staff and set up its own logistics company. When Chetan Bhagat’s new book was launched, Flipkart hired 700 personnel for distributing his books across India, according to Bhagat himself. In the long run, this is going to hurt terribly. Having your own delivery personnel will help if you are selling goods at a profit and not at a loss, as in the case of books. By present reckoning, Flipkart will have to make up for the loss in book sales by selling electronic goods and other products to which the emphasis will have to shift as the number of internet buyers swell.
So while Chetan Bhagat’s laughed his way to the bank, Flipkart must be thinking of the next venture capitalist. In other words, it is not profitable to run a virtual book shop unless you get a huge valuation and then exit as fast as possible. In this case, the book seller must be hoping that amazon.com – or someone else – will buy them out at a big valuation. But nothing of that sort has happened so far. Also, the sales figures do not match valuation expectations.
WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - Warren Buffett is willing to put his money where his mouth is, if only congressional Republicans would join him.
The American billionaire investor, in the new issue of Time magazine, says he would donate $1 to paying down the national debt for every dollar donated by a Republican in Congress. The only exception is Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell - for whom Buffett said he would go $3-to-$1.
The idea stems from a New York Times opinion piece Buffett wrote last August in which he said the rich ought to pay more taxes. It sparked an instant controversy, with some Washington conservatives calling on the 81-year-old "Oracle of Omaha" to voluntarily pay extra.
McConnell said at the time that if Buffett felt "guilty" about paying too low a tax rate, he should "send in a check." This was quickly followed by introduction of a bill to give taxpayers an option on tax forms to make voluntary donations.
"It restores my faith in human nature to think that there are people who have been around Washington all this time and are not yetso cynical as to think that can't be solved by voluntary contributions," the Buffett told Time for an article hitting newsstands on Friday.
An aide to McConnell suggested that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO should expand his matching offer to President Barack Obama and his Democrats.
"Senator McConnell says that Washington should be smaller, rather than taxes getting bigger. And since some, like President Obama and Mr. Buffett want to pay higher taxes, Congress made it possible for them to call their own bluff and send in a check," said Don Stewart, McConnell's deputy chief of staff.
"So I look forward to Mr. Buffett matching a healthy batch of checks from those who actually want to pay higher taxes, including Congressional Democrats, the President and the Democratic National Committee," he added.
The jabs over voluntary payments come as higher taxes for the wealthy and extension of payroll tax breaks for middle-class Americans are becoming increasingly contentious issues for the 2012 presidential race. Obama is trying to paint Republicans as only favoring the wealthy, while Republicans are trying to brand the president as relying on tax hikes to fund excessive spending.
Buffett said in the Time interview the United States needed a tax system that favored people who were not born investors.
"We need a tax system that takes very good care of people who just really aren't as well adapted to the market system, and to capitalism, but are nevertheless just as good citizens, and are doing things that are of use in society," he said.
Buffett, who has raised money for President Barack Obama recently, also takes swings at Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the Time interview, criticizing Gingrich's track record and Romney's ties to the private equity business.
(Reporting By Ben Berkowitz and David Lawder; Editing by Eric Walsh)
Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals has received initial USD 1.5 million in milestone payments from Merck & Co as its research programme with the pharma major for anti-infection drugs has completed a pre-clinical milestone.
Orchid and Merck had in 2008 entered into an agreement to focus on discovery, development and commercialisation of new medicines to treat bacterial and fungal infections.
As per the agreement, Orchid Chemicals is eligible to receive payments over USD 100 million upon reaching various research and development milestones. It will also receive significant royalties on worldwide net sales of any products commercialized under the agreement.
Orchid Chemicals had said on Monday that it received approval from banks to raise USD 100 million via external commercial borrowings [ECB] for redeeming USD 117 million of foreign currency convertible bonds [FCCB] due in February 2012.
Orchid Chemicals shares were trading up over 6% at Rs 132.25 on NSE in noon trade.
Looking at the behaviour of the domestic stock markets, and the success of fixed-rate issues like the tax-free bonds of the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI, which was a super sellout), it is easy to conclude that investors have become even more risk-averse than before.
True, but they are being so at their own risk.
The fact is, despite the current policy paralysis and general air of pessimism surrounding the India story, the medium-to-slightly longish term (5-7 years) future of Indian stocks has never been better.
In fact, in an earlier article, I had predicted that the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex will easily hit 60,000 by 2018-20. I would like to give further evidence of the same. Let’s start with the US markets.
A recent article by Floyd Norris in The New York Times suggests that the US markets have entered a period of low growth. If the 1984-1999 period saw the S&P 500 giving a real annual return (after inflation) of over 15 percent, in the last 15 years, this is down to 3 percent. It seems the cycle starts reversing once returns top 15 percent.
Says Norris: “Broadly, it appears there is a cycle that is repeating itself, in which the 15-year return tops out at more than 15 percent and then falls precipitately.”
It was the rising cycle that made investors like Warren Buffett stand out as super-achievers in the past. In a falling cycle, they won’t.
If the 15-year cycle observation holds true, what is the possibility that long-term investors will stay invested in US stocks when there are better pickings elsewhere? Especially India, where the market has fallen 23-25 percent in the year to date?
The second point relates to the dollar-rupee rate. Thanks to market pessimism, the rupee has been the worst-performing currency in the emerging markets, and has fallen 19 percent against the US dollar in 2011. The logical explanation for this is that India’s current account deficit (CAD, which is over 3 percent) and inflation rates are bad – hence the currency depreciation. But as Abheek Barua and Shivom Chakravarti point out in Business Standard, Turkey’s CAD is over 10 percent but the Turkish lira fell only marginally last year.
Clearly, the gloom in India is overdone – and the rupee will rebound this year. At the cusp of that sentiment change, foreign investors will start piling in to take double advantage – of a strengthening rupee and a rising market. The two go together.
Let’s also not forget that while the rupee is weak, domestic manufacturers get better protection, exports become more competitive, and high exchange earners get windfall profits in terms of unearned foreign exchange gains. The losers are the ones with high debts designated in dollars. If you pick companies playing in the domestic markets, with low dollar exposures, and/or high export capabilities, you have a winning portfolio on hand.
Third, there’s the interest rate cycle. Everyone and his aunt has been saying that the interest rate cycle has peaked, and the question is no longer whether the Reserve Bank will reverse its tight money policy, or cut rates, but when.
While some say the rate cut cycle could begin as early as January, even if this is postponed to March, the fact is no further increases are possible anymore.
Stock market valuations and interest rates are inversely related. If rates have peaked, stocks should be bottoming out, too. While no one can say when the actual bottoming out will occur, it is a safe bet that 2012 is probably the year. Investors, take note.
The fourth point is inflation. An elevated average inflation rate is going to be the lasting legacy of UPA’s profligacy (with NREGA and Food Security being the important wage-price spiral boosters, and fiscal looseness, necessitated by the need for greater subsidies, being the other key inflationary factor).
This means we are going to see 7-10 percent inflation for the next two or three years, and possibly slightly lower inflation after that.
When inflation rises, the rupee value of corporate profits rises as prices adjust for inflation. If the big index companies grow at 15 percent in real terms over the next six years, and inflation is at 10 percent in the next three, and five percent after that, stock prices have to rise 25 percent over the next three years and 20 percent over the years after that just to compensate.
Whatever happens, inflation itself should call for a stock price correction to Sensex levels of 50,000-60,000 over the next six years.
This is not to say that the index will not fall to 12,000 in the short run. But in the medium term there is no way we are going to lose out by investing in stocks.
In fact, if the US is going to have a 15-year downcycle, India should correspondingly have an upcycle. The upcycle that began in 2003 will last us at least till 2020.
A caveat to investors: this is not an invitation to take extraordinary risks. Every investor should stick to her or his asset allocation. If your ratio is 50:50 for risk investments and safe avenues (as mine is), stick to it. Don’t raise your equity investment to 75 percent of the portfolio.
However, it is worth remembering that at 8.2-8.3 percent, even the tax-free NHAI bonds yield a negative return after inflation. In the next few years, the biggest risk we face is our inability to take risks.
The ride will be bumpy, but by 2018, you will be sitting pretty.
Manufacturing jumps over 50% in Dec defying IIP nos. That is a good sign.The domestic as well as overseas demand has gone up and orders are pouring in. Now the order of the day is some steps from RBI and government and we will be back in reckoning. I read that Shankar Sharma has become super bullish in one of his interview in ET. I still feel that 3900-4000 can come.It will take time for our market to make a comeback as Dec ending ,3rd qr, results are due this month and that are not going to be great with Int rate high. Market will react on that and that is why I feel that we can see somemore downside before a Bull Market starts again. Moreover , players will try to take the stocks more down for more distress selling from the weak hands and will try and acculamalte as much good stocks as possible. This is not the time to sell.Stocks can still go down but then we never know the exact bottom.It can be 4200/4100/4000 or even 3900 or even 3800. But after budget , things should look up as I feel Pranab Roy will come out with some good measures which will help our economy. Government has opened up direct investment in stocks from foreign investor without taking a route of MF.Now an individual investor will able to invest in Indian market directly in Indian stock market.If FDI on retial will get passed then that will be even better. I have put a long list on the eve of the Christmas and I feel that my readers will have a look at it and decide on it.I feel that is an excellent list to look at.