Tuesday, September 30, 2008

$700 bn Bailout...rejected......! and 777 ponits mayhem in Dow

The US house didn't pass the $700 bn bailout pacakage yesterday.
There were difference of opinion about the solution.Whether US needs to infuse money in US system is the only way.....and hence it didn't get pass.There can be some more amendments in the pacakage and it should get passed on Thrus or Friday latest.
Actually these pacakage is not for USA only but for the entire world.All the liquidity has got sucked up in SubPrime Mortgage and stocks going down has made the things more bad.
The stock market and the stocks is the lifeline of US economy.Unlike India where Indian government use to invest in Bonds and infra project , in US the entire money they use to get from 401k and IRD is invested on companies and hence when the Dow tanked by 777 points and Nasdaq went down by over 200 points there were shivers running down the government.By not passing the $700 bn bill, market tanked by 777 points and Dow and Nasdaq lost ovwr $1 trillion in Mcap and that was far greater loss then the amount they were going to infuse in the system.
Well,this bailout pacakage is for buying subprime mortgage sec from the banks and financial institution and it is not going to come to Zero.As and when these houses are sold US government will get the money back.How much time it will take is to be seen.But it can take 2 to 3 years to find buyers maybe even at 20% discount.
But as the money is sucked in the housing sector , US needs to bring in $700 bn to keep the money circulating because as of now there is no liquidity and all loan and credits are stopped.
Even for bringing back the normalcy in banks and Financial Institution there is a need for the pacakage to get passed.
Now coming to our market , yesterday should have been the worst day for our market and it should have not only tanked but also closed over 1000 points down.But neither of that happened.
I personally feel that as soon as bailout pacakage get passed our market should stabilise.
There seems to be a strong support at 12300 levels.Let us see whether we see below 10k levels !
But the message our market send was clear...that don't take granted the US market moevment.We can do something different......

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Charlie Munger........the Right Hand Of Warren Buffet....

I just been through a post ..at Yahoo...which I liked so much and hence I am pasting it here
I need not write any comments here ...

My comments is all written in No4....

Had Warren Buffett never been born, there's a good chance we'd award the "world's greatest investor" honor to his right-hand man, Charlie Munger. Not only is Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-A) co-chairman a phenomenally talented investor, but he'd probably school almost anyone in a debate about philosophy, biology, physics, or just about any other topic. The man's disturbingly smart.I'd continue this introduction, but as Munger might bluntly say, "Nobody would listen." Without further ado, here are five Munger quotes you should study before making another investment decision.

1. "This is really crucial: Warren [Buffett] is one of the best learning machines on this earth. The turtles who outrun the hares are learning machines. If you stop learning in this world, the world rushes right by you."
Investing is so much more than a game of numbers. If you've mastered Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) Excel and can tear apart an annual report like it's no one's business, you're on the right track, but that's hardly the end of the road. You're probably just as likely to catch Munger reading the biography of a Roman emperor as you are The Wall Street Journal. Why? Because he's intently curious about all aspects of life. He wants to learn everything. It's his and Buffett's intense desire to probe into everything they find -- to ask, "Why is that? Tell me more!" -- that ultimately drives their quest to find spectacular investments

2. "I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn't like it -- indeed, especially when one doesn't like it."
There's a big difference between not swaying into the madness of crowds and not realizing when the facts have changed and adjusting accordingly. Unfortunately, it's incredibly hard to come to terms with this when your investments are gushing red ink. Not to pick on a battered soul, but Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX) provides a good example. Its raging popularity and surging stock price were nearly impossible to ignore, especially in the wake of soaring inventory levels and expectations a Romanian gymnast couldn't keep up with. The reality was that Crocs was a good company with a dramatically unrealistic stock price. Those who didn't recognize reality paid dearly.

3. "To me, it's obvious that the winner has to be very selective. It's been obvious to me since very early in life. I don't know why it's not obvious to very many other people."
It's easy to get caught up in grandiose dreams about successful investments, which typically leads to rushing out and putting your hard-earned money to work as soon as possible. But think about it: If, every time you sat down at your computer in search of a winning investment, you actually found one, the good ideas would quickly be exploited and outsized returns would never exist. The big winners -- like buying Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) after the dot-com crash or Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) on its IPO day -- come around very, very seldom.

4. "Mankind invented a system to cope with the fact that we are so intrinsically lousy at manipulating numbers. It's called the graph."
Got that, chartists? If the past were a road map to the future, your high school history teacher wouldn't be driving a 1979 Volvo wagon.
To pull a quote from Buffett, "I realized that
technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer."
Seems simple enough, but the amount of people trying to foretell the future with squiggly lines is downright bewildering. When Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) shot up almost 40% in the last year, it had nothing to do with its 200-day moving average. When Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) fell 55% in the past 9 months, it had nothing to do with a "head-and-shoulders" pattern. Honestly. It didn't.

5. "Some people seem to think there's no trouble just because it hasn't happened yet. If you jump out the window at the 42nd floor and you're still doing fine as you pass the 27th floor, that doesn't mean you don't have a serious problem. I would want to address the problem right now."

This quote reminds me of one thing: investors who know darn well a stock is overvalued, but insist on holding it because "it's still going higher." I guess it's only natural: The thought of selling something, only to watch it climb ever higher, can be a miserable one. The problem is that you'll never know for certain exactly when a stock either bottoms out or tops out. Those who hold out for the last drops of success are the ones who end up getting slaughtered.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Short sellling is another name of Insider trading?

The whole drama started around Jan 08,that was the time when Shortselling permission were given to FII's and even indivuduals while borrowing shares.
The day short selling scenario started , which SEBI gave the permission on the behest of going for the international practice, the whole things get messed up.
Warren Buffet once said this derivatives is nothing but a place where one only loose.
Well, I have never wrote any calls on F&O becuase I knew that it is not worth doing.Derivatives are the wrost thing to do. Actually the LOSS one gets in derivatives are Naked Loss. Naked Loss means ,according to my defination, LOSS of money without having anything remaining in our hand.Well, let me explain.....
If one buys a futures of SBI at say Rs 2000 and the lot is 150 shares..and if the margin is 25% then one needs to first pay the margin of Rs. 75,000/- and if the prices goes lower after he buys then he needs to pay the difference on the very same day.If he do not do that he loses the difference and if the difference is Rs 50 , he ends up losing Rs 7500/-...that is I call a naked loss...where one is losing the money from the pocket...........while if some one buys 150 shares in delivary then even if the price goes down he lose on paper....
like just we say it is paper profit...it is paper loss.
Unless you sell the holding , delivary, there is no loss.While in futures, you need to either pay the difference or say quit and that quit can cost even 15000 or 30000 if SBI goes down by 100-200 rupees.See what happens in futures is that one would be constantly on his toes.He goes to brokers office and buys a future.It comes down but the day is not over.He thinks it will come back and he will sell at no profit no loss so he will wait.After noon the stock plunges more.He thinks he will sell tommorow as he is in loss now......and he pays the difference....now suddenly there is a bad news in market and all chances that market should open down with a huge gap...what to do now.....he will not be able to sleep well....he will get angry with his family....his wife, son, daughter, father, mother etc.....he will not be able to sleep the whole night and will call his freinds who are in stock market what can happen tommorow...etc...
So people loses the wealth as well as the health....
Never borrow from the brokers as well.Buy only with that money which you think that you have spared to put it in a Bank or post for 5 yrs....that money should be invested in stock market. I have friends who use to ask me ,” I would like to go full time in stock market and leave his job”.I told them please do not leave your job for stock market. Job will be a monthly income which one gets and the house runs with that but there is no guanrentee that one will earn in stock market.Even one has made a fortune, only one bad decision can ruin you.Never leave a job for plunging fulltime in stock market…..
Coming back to shortselling, I feel that this short selling is entirely baseless and it is a invitation of actual insider trading.Let me explain this….
Say if one FII or DII or a big investor is going to sell some shares and they know that when they will sell the prices is bound to come down….hence they will first create a short position in that stocks and after sometimes they sell stocks in market….they make a killing in both ways….he makes money when they sell stocks in profit and also make profit from which they shorted it in futures.So that is called insider trading.This is a licence for insider trading which is absolutely ridiculous.Many lay investors do not understand this and ends up losing money.
All the calls almost generated by the socalled paid analyst or chartist are just like that.They know some one is buying and hence stock will go up and hence they give a buy call…or sell call as is the case.One will often seen that these people says that some buying is going to come…..
USA, UK,China, Koera etc ha stopped short selling.There was no sense making Lehman Br almost Zero or AIG almost Zero ….but that has happened due to shortselling.The hedge funds played havoc in US market and took the price at such an abysmal level that it becomes Zero…..ofcourse that is not the fate of all company.Otherwise those price should not come back….
Remember AIG has come back from $1 to over $3….if it is a gone case then how it can comeback..and am sure it will also cross $10 in near future….
We once say that OK, the prices were high in Jan 2008 and needs to be corrected, but it doesn’t means that they should be corrected to 70% or even more……it can’t be at 2-3 P/E! that is ridiculous and as if Bull had overdone , bears are also doing the same…..
That exactly happened in EM's....Hedge funds were knowing about the Financial mess and they bulidup the short position in all EM's......and played havoc....that is insider trading.....as a simple lay investor will never know exactly what is happening in other markets world over...and when such a big magnitude of selling comes what can happen is anybody's guess......
As I have written , apart from the FII's selling which is around over $12 bn in stocks, $7 bn shorts position is created by borrowing stocks and hammering them....There is no need of money to short sell stock while money is needed to make a bull run and money needs to poured in constantly to sustain the bull run.......hence it is always easy to hammer the stocks then to take them up.......
I still feel that bull and bears are not on equal footing when it comes for the action because if bull wants Teji they needs money to pour while bears do not needs money....they can borrow!ofcourse there are risk but still it is always easy to break the market then to run the market on upside.
We have seen a great recovery on Friday and needs to see how we fare on Monday with Dow up by 368 points.Whether we see nifty 4700 by this month!

Friday, September 19, 2008

Market recovered at the end of the day....

That is how market is!Did anyone expect that market will bounce back to normal after it went down for over 700 points?
I would like to ask Mr Azad who is an ardent followers of charts and technicals whether there was any respite seen yesterday on charts when market actually covered all the loss but ends in positive.......Is there any clue that charts is now showing..after making a double bottom at 12500!
Was there any thing that pointed that we should recover all the loss ground and close in positive territory?
And after seeing this..what does the charts fortell.....are we still to see the 9k levels......by Jan /Mar 09?Is there any significance when our market has made a double or triple bottom?
Mr Azad , this is not a criticism but am asking of curiosity.....
But it is clear that
1) It is not the fundamentals that is deteroitating but the sentiment is making the trouble.
2) When Dow went down by over 400 points why our market is showing strenght?
3)As I have written in comments, the short position created by Lehman Br is closed...is it that effect?
4)All the previous correction or whatever happened.....was due to high levearaged position of traders in F&O and also in cash stocks while while borrowing finance from the Brokers....etc....
5)The fundas are still in tact.....8% GDP is no mean less by any standard.
6)That is the only reason I am still writing about bullish view....
7)Crude is coming down , hence inflation will come down.....
8)3 out 5 big banks has gone bankrupt and only two is left.........eg.Bear Stern,Lehman,AIG gone ....Morgan Stanly and Goldman remains....there are news that now is the turn of UK banks to go bankrupt.....but I need to ask are they big enough like Lehman and Bear Stern to make that big an impact?

Well,I am writing the concluding part as I had to discontinue my post due to some work....

The summary of the above is, Can we go below 12500?
I would like to know what technicals analysis says after todays recovery............
The only problem Indian Market was facing is selling of FII and looking at the way market reacted positively from the days low of 12500 put me in a dilemma whether the wrost is over for our market.The only thing haunting our market was FII selling and I think with Lehman Brs bidding a good bye to Financial World....there seems no one more remaining to sell in India.
I am even seeing cross transaction between 2 FIIs which seems to me a very good sign.
I would like to write here that all my picks which have come to abysmal level are worth looking at.eg.Sujana Towers from 200 to 48, Gremach from 550 to 60, Jyoti Ltd from 180 to 50 etc etc...
If we are not going to buy now then when?
These are levels of market sentiments and not of fundamentals....The sentiment is low and hence we are seeing these prices which seems to me a life time chance to have it.
First Global Shankar Sharma is bearish for 2-3 yrs.He says that we will not be able to see the highs for 2-3 yrs.His prediction is on the world economy slowing down and the Financial Mess that has come out.
I also some times gets surprised and even annoyed how the top Honcos who are having so big a salary can just take down a 140 year old company, Lehman Br to ZERO in a quater or maybe couple of quaters!I need to pat them on back that even a simple and a lay investor would not make mistakes like they did and they are said to be the most learned people of the world.
The biggest mistake according to me was made by Lehman Br was investing in Sub prime Mortgage papers for $140 bn and that is Zero?
I can't understand how the things happened so suddenly and the value becomes Zero....Lehman Br 52 week high is $68 and it went to $.65, means 65 cents.Does it mean that what they invested in the papers of Sub prime Mortgage , $140 bn , has become Zero?How that can happen?How a value of $140 bn can become zero....the houses are still there...they can atleast fetch 50% of the original high....so it comes to atleast $70bn...
But buying Sub Prime Mortgage papers is a biggest mistake and there can be no mercy on those to took the decision and who approved the transaction.They have put the whole world economy at risk.
But I think the whole Model of western world financial sector need to get sae change and am sure there will be sweeping changes.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Market again tanked on the back of Lehman brs news.
That is the difference I am seeing between Dow and Sensex.
Dow shruges off the negative and with any good reason goes up while we still are seeing the negatives.Freddie Mac and Fennie Mae were bankrupt and Fed has to bail out and they went from 52 week high of $65 to low of $.65... so was Lehman Brs but the other stocks moves up..while in India it is not so......
But sooner or later we are going to decouple from US syndrom.The latest IIP figures came very good.It showed a growth of 7% and still market ignored them.
The results too are not bad of June qr and I think Sep qr will also be not that bad....
Bears seems hell bent to show us 12000 or even 10000.Now the onus is on Bull how they takes on Bears....any rise is taken as an opportunity to short sell and they are hepled by the selling of FII's like Citi, Lehman Brs....UBS, CLSA, Merill Lynch.. etc......
Well,for the market to come up the FII selling should stopped.....and when that happens is to be seen.
But I still feel that we should see a good upmove before next election is declared.The logical thinking for me is that if market has to tank when the election are declared then it has to go up first before it is declared...so to tank again....but if we are at 12k or 10k level how will it tank?
Let us see how things pans out....but am sure this is not the time to sell even if we are seeing the prices getting eroded....The bottom seems to me nearer and market seems to be taking support at some crucial levels.
As I have written here I would like to again reiterate that we may try to touch the previous high before anything happens......
Crude is at $100, IIP nos coming good,Results not bad,Growth is intact,N Deal on verge of passing....and in last 3 months India is outperforming the BRICS nations ..........
All Russia, Brazil, China are bleeding more then ours....and we are still above the last bottom we made ,Viz: 12500!
Lots of value buys are surfacing and we need to look at it and buy if one have money.
All said and done...These are my views and I may go totally wrong.....Take your own call.......

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Latest on Stone India.........

Stone India plans Rs 200-cr stake buy in European co
Our Bureau KOLKATA
DUNCAN Goenka group company, Stone India, is eyeing an acquisition in Europe to capture the European railway components market. The company is close to acquiring a controlling stake in an European firm manufacturing products for railways for little less than Rs 200 crore. Speaking to mediapersons at a meeting held in Kolkata on Monday, Stone India chief executive officer & managing director Amitava Mondal said: “We are trying to buy the company through the bidding process. A special purpose vehicle (SPV) will be formed and registered at either Cyprus or Netherlands to buy the assets of the European firm.” “Apart from Stone India, a Duncan Goenka group investment firm will also pick up stake in the proposed SPV to be floated. Dresdner Bank, which has just been taken over by Commerzbank AG, may part finance the buyout if we clinch the deal,” Mr Mondal added. Elaborating further, Mr Mondal said, “We have already crossed the first three stages of the bidding process before we were chosen for the last round. A final picture would emerge within a month’s time. In fact, we have been looking to acquire a global firms engaged in the railway components business primarily in East Europe, Switzerland and Europe without any success for various reasons.” Currently, the only presence Stone India has in the global market is that it exports brakes used by the railways to New Zealand, Africa (including Tanzania and Mozambique), Australia and Vietnam. The Duncan Goenka group company hopes to clock revenues of Rs 120 crore in the current fiscal against Rs 92 crore registered last year on better orders from Indian Railways. It also plans to invest Rs 25 crore in a new unit at Nalagarh in Himachal Pradesh taking the total investment to Rs 35 crore. The unit, expected to begin commercial production by end-September, will make biological toilets, pneumatic suspensions, converters and inverters, computerised brake systems, end of train telemeters, fault diagnostic and control systems as well as microprocessor-based locomotive control systems for the Indian Railways.
My Comments:
I hope this makes end to all speculation whether this co is growing or not...........
and I would like to add here what I have read somewhere else and I like that sentence very much .....
"Until today nobody has got NOBEL PRIZE in Economics for theory on "predicting tomorrow's stock prices today."

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Nuclear Deal is on........

The Nuclear Deal is through.NSG has given the nod.
Now Prez Bush has to pass in the Congress.
Well, that is a trigger for our market to go up on Monday.Dow tanked by 300 points and still our market didn’t go down by 1000 points which use to be the case in the past.We use to see that type of mayhem in our market.It use to be 3 times what Dow use to be down.But our market went down by only 400 points and many were thinking that our market will tank by over 600-700 points.
Seems the decoupling is taking place in some way.
Actually there is no room for stocks to go down as most of the stocks are already down by 50-60-70% or even more.Some of the A gr stocks are still high and hence room for them to go down further but that may even not happen.
Well, I still believe that Bull Market is intact and we are not in a Bear Market.All the Bull Market ended in a Scam and there is no Scam.I have written many times here that if FII’s have not sold 69,000 cr since Jan last then we would have not seen this much down side.

I would like to ask everyone who are bearish that if FII would have not sold Rs 69000 cr had we have been at 12500?Another question.....had FII sold Rs69000 cr due to slow down of our or due to Subprime LOSS?
I think one should be able to find the answer in this question....

Our growth is still around 8% GDP and by any standard it is still excellent.The results that have come uptill now is not atall that bad and remember that this results have come while Crude was at $140 and more.Now with Crude coming down and with that inflation will also come down we should see good results from next quarter.
Now there are no such stocks remaining where investor can loose money as almost all stocks are down atleast by 50%.There is no more room for stocks to go down and hence it can be safely said that if you have not sold anything , don’t sell it now thinking that market can go to below 10k level.Ofcourse this is my view and one must take a call on his own.
Above 16000 level the bears will take our market to over 18k level on short covering and from then on we will be again in Bull Market according to the technical analyst .The charts are not exhibiting bullishness but everyone knows I do not look on charts.I know we had a trying time for last 6 months and I have been proved wrong on more then one occasion in this 6 months.So it can be everybody’s guess what to take from what I writes.Why I do not believe charts?Because they have proved wrong for the whole bull run.I remember I do have arguements with others at MMB when they use to give bearish call on base of charts and technicals and they have to often eat the word.I will only tell here that those who feels that they were able to see all these levels of 12k , then 16k, then 21k and also able to see the down levels from 21k to 12500, and also acted accordingly , as I assume that when a person sees all these he should have acted accordingly, then he must be the richest person in India.Maybe he says he is a small player even then he must have made millions as seeing all those levels upto 21k and also seeing 12500 levels can give multiple returns, by say atleast 15 times and not less.So if even one starts with 1 lac he will be at 15 lacs and more by now....

I see the valuations and see the situation.That is the bottom line that I am following.Huge investment is coming in Power sector, Water management,Telecom,Infra that we don’t need to look for export.More over with rupee depreciating that sector is also going to out perform ….viz: IT ….it will be the main beneficiary as I can’t speak more on other export oriented sector but in IT we are almost at par with USA.
Try to find companies with niche products and software which can give multiple returns in IT Viz:E -Commerce,E-business,animation,Media, Search Engine etc ,all these sector will grow with at over 40% year to year for next 3-4 years.Just heard that ADAG is taking over Fame India(Old Shringar Cinema) so watch out for media stocks like, BAG Films, Baba Arts , Grey Cell Entertainment etc.
Google has come out with a new browser ,named Google chrome and it is fast and looking nice.Anyone can down load it from internet and use it.It is a challenge to Microsoft for its Internet Explorer browser which we use.It is also a challenge to Fire Fox as well.
I would like to write here at the end of my post that though I said that I will discuss one by one stocks that I listed here last time and I did discuss 3-4 of them, but I am afraid now that I will not able to do that as it seems that it is too time consuming.I am extremely sorry to write this but I have no way to do that.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

N-Deal...between India and USA..will it materialize?

I just went through a post at othersite which says that what India was thinking about NDeal is not the case.There are many rules and many regulations and if that is the case I am afraid the N Deal will not go through....

I am pasting it here:
Embarrassing revelations on the nuclear deal
September 03, 2008

The Bush administration, through a gag order on its written responses to Congressional questions, had sought to keep the Indian public in the dark on the larger implications of the nuclear deal, lest the accord run into rougher weather. But now its 26 pages of written answers have been publicly released by a senior United States Congressman.
The administration's January 2008 letter to the House Foreign Affairs Committee -- made public by Representative Howard L Berman on Tuesday -- bring out the following:

The US has given no binding fuel-supply assurance to India.
The prime minister told the Lok Sabha on August 13, 2007 that 'detailed fuel supply assurances' by the US for 'the uninterrupted operation of our nuclear reactors' are 'reflected in full' in the 123 Agreement. But the Bush administration has denied this. Its letter to the House Committee states that the US will render help only in situations where 'disruptions in supply to India... result through no fault of its own,' such as a trade war or market disruptions. 'The fuel supply assurances are not, however, meant to insulate India against the consequences of a nuclear explosive test or a violation of nonproliferation commitments,' the letter said. The letter also reveals that the US has given no legally binding fuel-supply assurance of any kind.

No US consent to India's stockpiling of lifetime fuel reserves for safeguarded power reactors.
The prime minister had told the Lok Sabha on August 13, 2007 that, 'This Agreement envisages, in consonance with the Separation Plan, US support for an Indian effort to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply for the lifetime of India's reactors.' But the Bush administration's letter to the House Committee makes clear that India will not be allowed to build such stocks as to undercut US leverage to re-impose sanctions.

US civil nuclear cooperation is explicitly conditioned to India not testing ever again.
The prime minister told the Lok Sabha as recently as July 22, 2008 that, 'I confirm that there is nothing in these agreements which prevents us from further nuclear tests if warranted by our national security concerns. All that we are committed to is a voluntary moratorium on further testing.'
Last year, he had told Parliament that, 'There is nothing in the Agreement that would tie the hands of a future Government or legally constrain its options to protect India's security and defence needs.' The Bush administration, however, has told the House Committee that India has been left in no doubt that all cooperation will cease immediately if New Delhi [Images] conducted a test.

The US has retained the right to suspend or terminate supplies at its own discretion.
The Bush administration letter plainly contradicts the prime minister's assertion in Parliament on August 13, 2007 that, 'An elaborate multi-layered consultation process has been included with regard to any future events that may be cited as a reason by either Party to seek cessation of cooperation or termination of the (123) Agreement.' The letter states that the US right to suspend all supplies forthwith is unfettered.

The letter makes clear that the 123 Agreement has granted India no right to take corrective measures in case of any fuel-supply disruption.
Rather, India's obligations are legally irrevocable. It further indicates there is no link between perpetual safeguards and perpetual fuel supply. Contrast this with what the prime minister claimed in Parliament on August 13, 2007: 'India's right to take "corrective measures" will be maintained even after the termination of the Agreement.' Or the prime minister's repeated assurances to Parliament since March 2006 that India's acceptance of perpetual international inspections will be tied to perpetual fuel supply.

The Bush administration's letter states that the 123 Agreement fully conforms to the Hyde Act provisions.
In a press release recently, the Prime Minister's Office made the following claim on July 2, 2008: 'he 123 Agreement clearly overrides the Hyde Act and this position would be clear to anyone who goes through the provisions.'

The letter assures Congress that the 'US government will not assist India in the design, construction or operation of sensitive nuclear technologies.'
That rules out not only the transfer of civil reprocessing and enrichment equipment or technologies to India even under safeguards, but also casts a shadow over the US granting India operational consent to reprocess spent fuel with indigenous technology. Under the 123 Agreement, India has agreed to forego reprocessing until it has, in the indeterminate future, won a separate, congressionally vetted agreement.

On one issue, the 123 Agreement had held out hope for India in the future by stating in its Article 5(2) that, 'Sensitive nuclear technology, heavy water production technology, sensitive nuclear facilities, heavy water production facilities and major critical components of such facilities may be transferred under this Agreement pursuant to an amendment to this Agreement.' But the Bush administration's letter to Congress states that the US government had no plan to seek to amend the deal to allow any sensitive transfers.

Contrast this with what the prime minister said in Parliament on August 17, 2006 -- that India wanted the 'removal of restrictions on all aspects of cooperation and technology transfers pertaining to civil nuclear energy, ranging from nuclear fuel, nuclear reactors, to reprocessing spent fuel.' Lest there be any ambiguity regarding this benchmark, he added: 'We will not agree to any dilution that would prevent us from securing the benefits of full civil nuclear cooperation as amplified above.' Earlier, on August 3, 2005, he told the Lok Sabha that he had received 'an explicit commitment from the United States that India should get the same benefits of civilian cooperation as (an) advanced country like the United States enjoys.'
Dr Brahma Chellaney, a professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, is the author, among others, of Nuclear Proliferation: The US-India Conflict.

It is very clear that US do not gives any guarentee for uninterrupted Uranium.USA is not binded by the law that they will give fuel ....besides that there is a clause that if India TEST a nulcear explosion...USA will immidiately stop giving Uranuim and that in no circumstances the PEOPLE OF INDIA WILL GET READY TO TAKE.
If the nuclear deal is going to create 10,000 jobs in US itself and if US feels that they are the natural ally of India as both believes in democracy then US will have to overrule it otherwise with the above article , which is a part of 123 agreement, this deal is definately not going through.....US can't impose rules to go for civil nuclear to India. If this is a win win situation for both and if both countries are to be benifitted then why there are RULES.......
India's SECURITY is at the TOP of anythi ng in the WORLD and not a single Indian will do away with it....India has all rights to do whatever she feels is needed for her defence and that RIGHT INDIA WILL NEVER SURRENDER TO ANYBODY..........I think USA should understand that and think over it.....

Indian N-deal will create 10000 jobs in US: State Dept
Wed, Sep 3 01:55 PM
India plans to import eight 1000 mw nuclear-powered reactors by 2012 and the US hopes to win at least two contracts, which it feels will significantly boost its atomic industry.
The envisaged sale of at least two reactors, to what it calls 'lucrative and growing Indian market', would create 3000-5000 direct jobs and 10,000-15,000 indirect jobs in the US nuclear industry, the US Department of State has said.
"Access to Indian nuclear infrastructure would allow US companies build reactors more competitively here and in the rest of the world -- not just India," it said in answer to questions raised by the powerful US House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Though the replies to searching spate of queries raised by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs were delivered in October, 2007, they were made public on Wednesday by the new Chairman of the panel Howard Berman just ahead of the Nuclear Suppliers Group plenary in Vienna to consider a waiver for India from its guidelines enabling atomic trade.
"We are confident that the initiative for a civil nuclear cooperation would yield important economic benefits to the US," the US State Department has told the Congress.
India currently has 15 operating nuclear power reactors with seven under construction, but 'it intends to increase this number significantly,' it said.
The Department's assessment says that meeting this ramp up in demand for civil nuclear reactors, technology, fuel and support services holds the promise of opening new markets for the US.
The US also feels that participation in India's emerging market will help make the American nuclear power industry globally competitive thereby benefiting its domestic nuclear power sector.
"This initiative will permit US companies to enter the lucrative and growing Indian market -- something they are currently prohibited from doing so," it said.
The State Department has listed 15 nuclear-related US firms, including giants like General Electric and Westinghouse who are ready to move to India.
The State department feels that a successfully implemented civil nuclear cooperation initiative with India will allow scientists from both the nations to work together in making nuclear energy safer, less expensive, more proliferation resistant and more efficient.
"Newly forged partnerships in the nuclear field will facilitate scientific advancement in the many facets of nuclear energy technology," it said.
The US also feels that Indian involvement in global for a such as International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor and the Generation-IV Forum can expand the potential for innovation in the future of nuclear energy as well as stake of emerging countries in developing cheaper sources of energy.
US official have also revealed that Washington may choose to allow India to participate in the future in the Department of Energy's Global Nuclear Energy Partnership and allow it to collaborate with advanced nuclear technology in developing new proliferation resistant technology.
"Such interaction could only be contemplated subsequent to the civil nuclear cooperation initiative," US officials said.

It is obvious that this deal will do loads of good for US company as well.It will also do loads of good for Nuclear plants co in USA......It is estimated that around rupees 30,000 cr will be invested if the deal goes through and if it doesn't go through then many companies will be loosing an opportunity in USA as well as in India.India needs power(nulcear Power for civil use) to grow but not at the cost of its security......
Prez Bush has to rethink it over.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008


I have read this post somewhere else and I am pasting it here for readers..
Obviously I agree with this view....

One set out to look for horror stories among the investing community in Chennai following the present mayhem in the markets, but was surprised to find sane, rational and even cheerful voices.
The common refrain was: "Our economy is fundamentally sound andlike earlier crashes, this too will pass and the markets will bounceback before you know it.

"Mr Mahendra Shah, a former Madras Stock Exchange broker, who has personal holdings going back to — hold your breath — shares got in the Reliance Industries IPO at Rs 10, and Dr Reddy's Laboratories below the issue price in the grey market at Rs 7, is as cool as a cucumber. But then he has experience of over three decades in the equity market.

"During the last few days I'm just sitting on the sideline, because there is no use getting entangled in this mess, which will surely pass. I am a bull and would say if you have money, simply buy. But buy fundamentally sound scrips like L&T, BHEL, or even IT majors like Infosys or TCS".

So has he heard horror stories in the last few days? "Not yet. When people make money in the market, they brag at every party/meeting about it. But when they lose money, they simply lock their lips," he says, adding, "But these stories will come out anyhow, after 7-10 days.

RIL IPO, 1976
His confidence in the market has a strong rooting from his experience in broking; today he invests only for himself. An interesting story he relates is the RIL IPO meet that Dhirubhai Ambani held in Chennai in 1976. "He had come with his son Mukesh, and sat behind me while the audio-visual presentation was on. I was the only Gujarati broker at that meet and will never forget that as I left, Dhirubhai almost touched my feet — I was barely 27 then — thanked me for coming, gaveme a Vimal pant piece and a Vimal saree for my wife and said:

"Please ask your clients to subscribe to my company's public issue. I'm a hard working, genuine person and will treat with great care the money people invest with us. Tell them that we will work very hard, give them good dividends and their money will only grow."Whether it was the Gujarati camaraderie or faith in the entrepreneur, Mr Shah made many of his clients apply; he himself got 300 shares "and am still holding on to all the shares that have come from them!"

"'Only a scientist'

Another interesting story from his repertoire. At the Dr Reddy's Laboratories IPO meet, "the brokers in Chennai found the chairman very shy and said: 'Arrey, he is only a scientist, what does he know about business?' At that very meeting brokers started offering shares at Rs 9, 8 and then 7. So I bought shares at Rs 7!I'm still holding on to them.

"Success stories in the equity market are made from such patience and acumen!

My Comments:
The Red letters highlighted is what we see usually among peoples.They act as an expert and feels that what they think is the best and true ...and that will happen exactly....I also know about Dr Reddy's IPO.CapitalMarket then gave a thumbs down for Dr Reddy's lab....in rating for applying the IPO....
One need to take the risk and invest in a new venture.....only then a multibagger return is possible......that is what Mr.Mahendra Shah did.......took risk to invest in IPO of Ril Ind and Dr Reddy's Lab......

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Let us discuss on what Shankar Sharma spoke at CNBC.....

Shankar Sharma of First Global said that overall trend in market is still down and the rally from 12,500-15,000 is over and done with. He feels that the sharp oil price correction is likely and India will be a big beneficiary from the same. According to him, India will benefit from fund reallocation in Emerging Markets, or EMs if crude cracks. He feels that the markets may slip to 10,000 levels this year or early next year and may then start moving up gradually over next three years. He sees the Sensex bottom within the 10,000-12,500 range. He believes that the market could double from lows but that may be short-lived.
According to him, valuations of BHEL, L&T is still expensive. He doubts further stellar returns from SBI and feels that the rally is over. RIL may drive the next leg of fall in the market and could test levels substantially below Rs 2,000 per share, he said. He doesn't see much downside for IT from current levels.
Sharma said, "Nothing has really changed. The GDP numbers have come in confirming our fears but this is just a recent set of numbers. We don't know what lies ahead. Overall the trend is down punctuated by the rallies we keep seeing. When I say bull market, I mean taking out the highs and continuing to the path of 25000 and beyond. Markets could reach 18000-19000 - that rally is still to be played out. So, markets can double from lows but that still won't be a bull market. It will coincide with crude having come off, some talk of political certainty because inflation has cooled off. That rally will propel markets close to 20,000 but I doubt if that will be so quick. Crude has to come off substantially at USD 80-85 per barrel. Our case is it will and may take 12 months to get to the USD 50 per barrel levels. Crude may rally 10-20% from its lows. When it hits USD 50 per barrel, you will see India begin to come back on its own."
overall trend in market is still down and the rally from 12,500-15,000 is over and done with. He feels that the sharp oil price correction is likely and India will be a big beneficiary from the same. According to him, India will benefit from fund reallocation in Emerging Markets, or EMs if crude cracks. He feels that the markets may slip to 10,000 levels this year or early next year and may then start moving up gradually over next three years. He sees the Sensex bottom within the 10,000-12,500 range. He believes that the market could double from lows but that may be short-lived.
According to him, valuations of BHEL, L&T is still expensive. He doubts further stellar returns from SBI and feels that the rally is over. RIL may drive the next leg of fall in the market and could test levels substantially below Rs 2,000 per share, he said. He doesn't see much downside for IT from current levels.
Sharma said, "Nothing has really changed. The GDP numbers have come in confirming our fears but this is just a recent set of numbers. We don't know what lies ahead. Overall the trend is down punctuated by the rallies we keep seeing. When I say bull market, I mean taking out the highs and continuing to the path of 25000 and beyond. Markets could reach 18000-19000 - that rally is still to be played out. So, markets can double from lows but that still won't be a bull market. It will coincide with crude having come off, some talk of political certainty because inflation has cooled off. That rally will propel markets close to 20,000 but I doubt if that will be so quick. Crude has to come off substantially at USD 80-85 per barrel. Our case is it will and may take 12 months to get to the USD 50 per barrel levels. Crude may rally 10-20% from its lows. When it hits USD 50 per barrel, you will see India begin to come back on its own."

My Comments:
SS use to say in past that I wouldn't like to speak the levels.Now he talks with levels....
I don't understand when he says,
" The GDP numbers have come in confirming our fears but this is just a recent set of numbers. We don't know what lies ahead."

when he himself says that Oil can come to $50 in a year.....I think he doesn't mean it will come down to that level in 3 months(last 3 months).Crude if he says can come down to $50 then it will come down gradually.....and when he discuss the recent sets of no of GDP, he forgets that these are figures of $140 crude and not even $115 crude.....and as we all know market use to discount bad news and its effects 6 months ahead as we saw in last 6 months, market will also start discounting good news 6 months ahead...
Actually I am not able to understand what he means by saying ......"We don't know what lies ahead..." if crude is going to come down which is seen even after the the Gustav Tornado in USA which would have create a cascanding effect and would have took the crude to above $150-160 levels....but instead crude tanked by over $4...then the slow down world over and inflation is going to come down in next 6 months......then how SS is questioning ......"What lies ahead?......whatever lies ahead is going to be better then last 6 months.......that is what can be derived from the crude tanking........it is ofcourse is the biggest reason for the markets to go in tail spin......
If market discounts bad news 6 months ahead , about bad results and poor GDP and IIP nos which we saw from 21k to 12500 ,then market should and will discount good news 6 months ahead......
Let us see, how market discounts .......good news!but if market is going to discount good news 6 months early...then we should see no more leg down below 12500......
It will be very interesting to see from where markets starts discounting the good news ,from Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec or .......when..(fill in the blanks)..............!


Monday, September 1, 2008

US Stocks ..........

Well Friends,
Market was up up and away on friday.It never budge an inch and it stayed with the maximum gain at the end.
I have been in USA since Last Feb 08 and I have been looking at the Wall Street as well.I have been looking at some stocks as well there.
Those who plays in Dow can have a look at
1)"PKD" ....Parkar Drilling
2)"AMAT"....Applied Materials.....
I recomended PKD at some other forum at $7.23 in Mar or so and it is already....$9.23 , means almost 30% return in 6 months.
This looks good when whole America is happy with a 10% return in a year as the FD rates or CD rates is just 3% for a year and anything over 3% is sweet for them.
I have no doubt about my both picks viz:PKD and AMAT.....They should give great returns even from hereon..........
Anyone who wants to discuss why I am bullish on the above two can write me at
I can discuss many other stocks which I tracks in USA....and many more things I am observing in USA stock market...

What I have observed in US market that almost no shares are available cheap....like say if the co is about to make a turn around and about to declare a good result it run before that and then it is not available below 10P/E.....I have tried to find some good shares with good earnings and they are all above 20 p/e.....and still the US market is considered cheap!
While in India the whole universe is available at throw away price......great story going abegging..but as is said in Bear Market no one wants to stick out the neck and give a buy call which I am doing here maybe foolishly.....!
But I must say that US market is a matured market.I have no doubt about that now.When Fed decided to bailout Feddie and Fenie it was a mayhem and whole world was thinking that now USA is gone.But that didn't happen....Dow recovered on positive news.....Only Freddie and Fanie were down and other stocks gained with positive NEWS......and Dow also recovered in same fashion.Why that is not seen in India?Why with all negative news our market tanks and do not climb with good news as is seen at Wall Street?Why our market do not exhibit the same charecteristic?
The only reason I am seeing is we have become more dependant on FII flows and when they sells in our market , there is mayhem.See, Lehman br, Citi gr,Merill Lynch, UBS,Bear Stearn and many more has made huge loss .The loss is in Billons of dollars and still Dow is not going below in bear market territory!
The total loss in Subprime mortgage is as big as $600 bn and that is almsot the whole Mcap of Indian Market...Wow!
I have written here many times that when FII stops selling , our market will rise.But we are still seeing the selling of FII's coming from like Citi and Lehman br.The latest figure I have got is that the overseas entity has made a profit of $12 bn last year from emerging markets and there is no other avenue to make such profits elsewhere.Maybe I am writing this time and again and many must be saying we are fedup reading this.When that will happen ?But that is not in my hand as overseas MFs are continuosly making loss and every now and then the news of Loss keeps coming in and hence any hope of Indian Market recovering gets deminished...
But I think and hope that later then sooner the things will get better in couple of months.I remember I wrote that by Mar next year we may see our sensex trying to touch the previous high...let us see....if that happens....we have seen a long bearish phase timewise and pricewise and those who were new in the market are taken aback as the value is deterioting daily and stocks are making new lows.
But then Bearish Phase are the best time to buy.But who has got the money?Yes that is a million dollar question...and to them the best thing is to hold what they have as with no Scam in Indian Market, which I have pointed out here many times, we are bound to be back to normal.All the previous Bull Market in India ended with a Scam.While there is no scam here and hence I see no reason why we shouldn't be back to normal.
Maybe we are slowing a bit but not slow enough to be at so low end of Sensex...Viz:12500 or as many analyst predicts at below 10K....
Well, these are all my views and I maybe tottaly wrong.Take your own call....