Saturday, May 31, 2008
I am again pasting an article which I read today in ET......
ET I N T E R A CT I V E V M TREHAN
‘Construction boom here to stay’
HAVING supplied construction equipment to big-ticket projects like Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery, Adani Group’s power project at Mundra and several airports across the country, the Mekaster Group is riding the ongoing construction boom to expand its business. Despite apprehensions about slowdown and sky-rocketing prices of key items like steel and cement, buoyancy in construction would not peter out at least till 2020, the group’s chairman V M Trehan told G Ganapathy Subramaniam. Excerpts from the interview:
When there are concerns over an impending slowdown and increasing input costs, what makes you confident of the construction industry’s growth?
Considering the country’s huge population and the strong potential for industrialisation, there is tremendous scope for further growth in construction. Indian economy needs huge infrastructure development to sustain its growth and Indian companies are working on hundreds of huge projects like special economic zones (SEZs), ports, power plants, airports, railway corridors, highways and bridges. Massive investments are expected over the next decades and I feel the India growth story is just taking off. There is no way construction industry is going to slow down, at least till 2020. I can tell you from the kind of orders we are getting for our equipment that slowdown is nowhere in the picture.
Has the construction industry made any progress in terms of quality due to the ongoing boom?
Earlier, it took five years to construct a 250-room hotel of top quality. Now the industry wants it built in nine months. Everybody is moving at a hectic pace. As a result, labour-intensive systems deployed in the previous decades have given way to mechanised operations. Projects like the Delhi Metro are a good example of how things are changing. Heavy equipment is being used increasingly and customers do not mind spending more if they can save on time. We are also seeing taller highrises and industrial projects of larger capacity.
What are the types of equipment that are in high demand?
We find tunnelling equipment, rack & pinion elevators, concrete-paving equipment and mining equipment are in demand. Construction equipment supplied by Mekaster is now being used at 400 sites across the country. We estimate that we would add 300 more sites in a year from now. Big players like L&T, Gammon India and NBCC use our equipment. We have supplied lifts, platforms, pavers, bridge pylon and cranes of various types, besides building boilers and chimneys for various major projects. We have also provided equipment for a number of runway projects.
Does the construction boom mean that the Group is focusing only on supply of equipment for this segment?
We at Mekaster have always believed in the power of technology. We were the first to bring digital switching technology to the telecom sector. Of course, we have exited that business, but people do remember that we were instrumental in creation of the National Telematics Forum. Recently, the Centre for Science & Technology of the non-aligned and other developing countries (NAM S&T Centre) selected our Group as member, making us the first private sector player to bag this recognition. As many as 41 government organisations are members of the Centre which looks after transfer of technology, technical assistance and human resources development to benefit poor nations. We will help in capacity building by dissemination of technology in developing countries. We are also focusing on our machine tools business which is another area witnessing buoyancy.
On the infrastructure front, what is your view on the emergence of new players like GMR and GVK?
Interestingly, companies originating in Andhra Pradesh are handling bulk of the infrastructure projects in the country. Full credit should go to the Andhra government which has given them a strong footing at home to develop and grow this booming business.
Does Mekaster consider leasing of equipment since most industries favour outsourcing?
Some companies are already engaged in leasing of construction equipment. Most of our customers prefer to buy the equipment and avail our services to maintain them to ensure performance and safety. We are open to the idea of considering this segment of business too once the trend catches up.
Friday, May 30, 2008
I found a very good article on RULES......I am pasting it for my readers....
Don’t let rules ruin your life!
• PARAMAHAMSA SRI NITHYANANDA
ASMALL story. A man was addicted to smoking cigarettes. He asked for my help. “Master, please help me quit smoking. I don’t know how I became addicted. Please help me.” I asked him, “How did you start smoking?” “Master, I never wanted to smoke. In fact, I hated that smell,” he said. “One day I was talking to my friend on the street. My friend was smoking a cigarette. My father saw us from a distance. He thought I too was smoking. When I went home, he started yelling and shouting at me. He did not listen to me. Then I decided, how does it matter if I smoke now? I have already been punished for it. So, I started to smoke.” We all get a thrill, a feeling of adventure, satisfaction in doing what we are not allowed to do. When we are asked not to do something, we feel a strong urge to do it. We feel a kind of joy and satisfaction doing it. This is the basic tendency of every human being. When there is a strict rule, we always try to work around it and go beyond it. How many of us overspeed until we see a cop? We say no to our parents to prove that we are now grownups. We think that we become a man, an adult when we say no. Adults have the power and authority to veto anything by saying no. By saying no, we assume that we also have become adults. We feel that as long as we say yes, we are children. We feel that we are not mature. When we say no, we think, we assume, that we have become adults. We think that we have matured. This is the basic tendency of every human being. In western countries, that is why there are so many rebellious groups, gangs and other problems. These people develop a deep satisfaction and taste in saying no. They think it is an expression of self esteem. It is not; it is an emotional illness. Saying no is also an addiction. It is an addiction to one’s identity. It is an addiction to rebelling without reason. It is another way of expressing your ego. In the ’70s in the US and many other western countries a counter culture developed. That counter culture such as the hippie movement in western USA was a rebellion against society. So long as you are working against something you are likely to get nowhere. You need to work towards something to get somewhere. Go beyond rebelling against rules. Understand why the rule was created. Work towards that understanding. Then you can either follow the rule or bend the rule or break the rule without guilt, fear or anger.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
I came through an interesting article and I am pasting it here:
WSJ HEARD IN ASIA - Time up for commodities boom? Some bulls think so
B Y P ATRICK B ARTA ························BANGKOK
Global investors keep pouring money into com modities and the companies that produce them. But a few analysts are starting to advise against it.
One is Sean Darby, a Hong Kong-based analyst for Nomura International. Over the years, he has advised clients to buy stock in a number of commodity-related companies, especially during the past six months, when he correctly predicted commodity prices would climb even higher.
Now, he says, a new scenario is starting to play out. Inflation is getting out of hand in some regions, especially in Asia, and that means central banks and governments will have to take more aggressive steps to rein it in. Those steps—which will likely include interest-rate increases in some countries—should take some steam out of commodity markets, or at least keep them from going much higher, Mr. Darby argues.
“We’ve made our gains in this [sector] and will watch from the sidelines” for now, he says.
Mr. Darby’s voice remains a somewhat lonely one, at least among investors, who continue to drive commodity prices higher. So far this year, tin prices are up more than 40%, oil is up more than 30%, and soybeans are up about 10%.
But a few other analysts are joining in the warnings that some commodities might peak soon, if they haven’t already. Sam Stovall, the chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s, said oil “is about as overbought as any- time in the last 10 years.” Lehman Brothers analyst Edward Morse has said that commodities including oil “may face a sharp correction” that is “likely to happen around the turn of the year.” An engineer by training, Mr.
Darby joined Nomura in 2001.
He has recommended a number of commodity-related stocks that have performed well since then, including some in agriculture, such as Khon Kaen Sugar Industry, a Thai sugar miller. It has seen its share price roughly triple over the past three years.
Mr. Darby made another bullish call on commodities in September. And he reiterated it in January, telling clients that equity investors were likely to face “uncomfortable headwinds” because of rising inflation, a sagging dollar and weakening global growth linked to the world-wide credit crunch. At the same time, central bankers including U.S.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke were lowering interest rates, flooding the financial system with additional liquidity.
Those conditions would send prices for gold and other commodities even higher, Mr.
Darby argued, as investors looked for safe havens. He recommended a “basket” of companies in commodity businesses, including Cnooc, a Chinese oil company, and Banpu, a Thai coal producer.
But now, that call is “at risk of becoming a victim of its own success,” Mr. Darby wrote earlier this month.
As commodity prices charge higher, that is increasing inflation so sharply that central banks and government policy makers can’t ignore the problem much longer, especially now that there are signs the chaos in global credit markets is settling down. Dealing with inflation will require moreaggressive steps from central bankers to mop up some of the excess liquidity, and “that will be bad for commodities,” he says.
All of this is especially true in Asia, the region whose demand helped create the commodity boom. The inflation rate has surpassed 20% in Vietnam and is expected to blow past 10% soon in Indonesia. It has also accelerated noticeably in Singapore, China and elsewhere.
Cooling inflation So far, many Asian governments have tried to cool inflation through relatively modest measures such as requiring banks to hold more deposits on reserve, which leaves them less money to lend, and price controls.
But those steps haven’t been effective, and price con trols are expensive to maintain. That leaves more interest-rate rises as the most likely option to tame inflation.
In Indonesia, for instance, the central bank earlier this month raised rates by a quarter percentage point to 8.25%, its first increase in more than two years.
Higher interest rates should slow growth, even in booming economies such as China and India, curbing their need for more raw materials. If the U.S.
raises rates or even just stops lowering rates, it could also bolster the U.S. dollar by making investments in that country more attractive—another development that could ease demand for commodities.
Looking elsewhere The bottom line: Mr. Darby contends that it is time to look for other investments. That doesn’t mean commodity prices will collapse, or that all companies tied to commodities will perform badly. But for now, he says, he isn’t recommending his basket of commodity companies. In his view, there are better options in other sectors, including telecommunications and Internet companies.
Many analysts disagree. In a May 16 note, Deutsche Bank said it remains bullish on many commodities, and that oil prices might keep rising. In a May 22 note, analysts at Scotiabank in Toronto argued that tight supplies would drive oil prices even higher in 2009, with an average of $135 to $140 that year.
Other banks have been bolder, such as Goldman Sachs, which raised eyebrows when it predicted in 2005 that oil would top $100 a barrel.
Early this month, Goldman Sachs said that the possibility of oil in the $150- to $200-abarrel range is “increasingly likely” over the next six to 24 months. It has recommended a batch of energy companies, including Chevron and ConocoPhillips, as well as gold producers such as Barrick Gold of Canada.
David Abramson, a researcher for BCA Research Group in Montreal, says he thinks Mr. Darby is broadly right—but probably too early with his warning. Over the past two months, Mr. Abramson says, he has seen more evidence that commodities may be entering a “mania” phase, as more and more investors move blindly into the sector.
Mr. Darby’s thesis “makes complete sense,” he says.
Even so, Mr. Abramson says, investors often make good money playing the market in the latter stages of a cycle, when it experiences some of its fastest moves.
And for now, the fundamentals underlying commodity demand are still in place. In China and elsewhere,”you still have powerful demand that is structural in nature and very commodity intensive,” he says.
Monday, May 19, 2008
BV MahalakshmiPosted online: Monday , April 14, 2008 at 0009 hrs IST
Around the same time last year, Gartner Research chief analyst Bryan Lewis had re-ignited the IT industry’s age-old debate on whether India can join the foundry club, when he proclaimed, “Investing in fab plants in India does not make economic sense.” His rationale was that the world would see an excess capacity of fabs by 2009 and India would do better to focus on its strengths—design and software that goes into chips, rather than compete against those who had better economies of scale.
The same question is popping up once again, as Companies like Reliance, Moser Baer and Videocon Industries unveil plans to invest about Rs 65,000 crore in chip manufacturing. Most thought India had missed the bus when Intel decided to put off its plans to set up a plant in India to manufacture, assemble and test silicon processors. Instead, it went to China with a $2.5-billion fabrication facility. Ironically, it had sought a $50-million upfront subsidy from the government. The much-talked about chip manufacturing forays of SEMIndia or Hindustan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp’s seem nowhere near completion. Stung by the setback, the government framed a special incentive package scheme last year for semiconductor manufacturing—following the trend of many Asian countries—offering a capital subsidy to investors setting up chip manufacturing units. The recent investment proposals are an outcome of that.
While industry is enthused about its chances of finding the missing link—manufacturing—in the semiconductor ecosystem, it continues to tow a cautious line. Manufacturing chips is a different game altogether, which requires different skill-sets and a different business environment, insiders feel.
For one, such industries are highly capital intensive and have to deal with constantly changing technologies. Secondly, a fab requires all sorts of infrastructure, including basic things such as uninterrupted water and power supply in addition to the land provided at attractive rates by the government. Certainly, none of the state governments could boast of meeting these infrastructure needs.
Several questions thus arise. Is it really viable to set up fabs in India? Aren’t we a bit too late and have already missed the opportunity? Even if it commences, won’t manufacturing be restricted to lower-end? Can’t the demands of the semiconductor industry—projected to grow to $40 billion by 2016—be met from imports? In a nutshell, what could be the best semiconductor strategy for India under the prevailing circumstances?
First, let’s glance through the big-ticket proposals unveiled recently. Corporate behemoth Reliance Industries plans to lead... Rs 30,152 crore in investments over 10 years in chip and liquid-crystal display factories. The first proposal envisages setting up of a semiconductor wafer fabrication plant with assembly, test, mark and packaging facility. Another proposal is to manufacture poly-silicon, single crystal/multi crystalline ingots, solar grade wafers and modules with a capacity of 1 giga watt.
Videocon Industries is also planning to set up an LCD fabrication plant with an investment of about Rs 8,000 crore. Other proposals include Signet Solar Inc’s to set up solar photovoltaic and associated products manufacturing plant with an investment of Rs 9,672 crore and Moser Baer PV Technologies India Ltd’s proposal for silicon cells, modules and thin film concentrators facility, with a Rs 6,000-crore investment. KSK Energy Ventures Pvt Ltd intends to set up a solar panel facility with an investment of Rs 3,211 crore while Titan Energy System Ltd proposes to set up a solar cells manufacturing unit with an investment of Rs 5,880 crore.
“The government has given an in-principle approval to five other projects worth a further investment of Rs 27,634.87 crore . Yet another five proposals, also worth between Rs 23,687.03 crore and Rs 27,634.87 crore are under active consideration. The in-principle allotments have been given to five other Indian Companies, which include Chandradeep Solar for an R&D unit, Neotech Solutions, Photon Energy Systems, Surana Ventures and RamTerra Solar Pvt. Ltd for several PV modules unit,” says Poornima Shenoy, president, India Semiconductor Association (ISA).
This might sound impressive, but one must remember that these are mere proposals and not concrete plans. Secondly, all these investments are envisaged over a period of 10 years. In effect, it means that there would be no fabs up and running at least till 2015. Thirdly, the proposals received are for manufacture of wide variety of items like polysilicon, single/multi-crystalline ingots, wafers, solar cells, solar photovoltaic modules (SPV) liquid crystal display (LCD), integrated circuits-advanced logic/memory/embedded system on chip including assembly, test, mar and packaging facility for semiconductor devices.
Typically in a fab, these products are seen as run-of-the-mill and at the lower-end. If the trends are any indication, the next generation chips would have multifunctional processors cores. Fab units in China and Taiwan are not set up to capture the software that goes into the chips. Isn’t there an opportunity for India round the corner?
Analysts stress that Singapore and Malaysia have testing and assembly units, so India should continue to do what it does best: software. Besides, India could only qualify for testing and assembly facilities and not full blown fabs to begin with. Testing and assembly combined with software expertise would be a great proposition, they say.
“I do not believe we have missed the bus on manufacturing in semiconductors. These are capital-intensive projects and we have done the right thing by not jumping into investing in fab(s) as a matter of national ego but take a more cautious approach and do so to generate positive returns,” says Pradip K Dutta, president of Synopsys India.
Without any doubt, India is a growing market for electronic products and is expected to reach $363 billion by 2015, growing at a CAGR of nearly 30%. There is a strong link between semiconductors and electronics, with chips driving the innovation in electronic equipment. Having emerged as a major design centre for integrated circuits (ICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) and systems-on-chips (SoCs), this growth pattern is indicative of the potential of the domestic semiconductor industry.
According to industry experts, the demands for designs have increased from the Indian semiconductor industry. With the rate of consumption increasing at the end market, Companies are under pressure to bring down the cost of chips. And, with the increase in profitability in testing and marketing, the country is yet to tap the full potential in testing and packaging industry, they feel.
On the technology front, Texas Instruments India managing director Bobby Mitra feels that the focus is increasingly shifting into application processing. “There is a trend towards media convergence in the wireless handset. An example is having internet, camera, music, TV, video and gaming on a handset.”
Similarly, JA Chowdary, president TiE, Hyderabad says that only solar module manufacturing activities are centred in the country and that too, at the module level and not at the silicon level.
Meanwhile, outsourcing in the semiconductor industry is bound to fix the right chips on the board with both design and chip industries establishing captive houses in the country. In all probability, the country is poised to see a success story of a ‘Golden Triangle’ to be established between Hyderabad, Bangalore and Chennai. While Bangalore hopes to become the design hub, Hyderabad is set to be the hub for chip manufacturing and Chennai is expected to gives its share in the manufacturing sector.
A survey conducted by Frost & Sullivan for ISA found that an... in-country commercial fab would lead to the boost of consumer electronics in India, taking the country’s global share of the electronics industry from 2.8% currently, to 11% by 2015.
ISA feels that the ecosystem for commercial fabs in India exists. It has a sophisticated chip design industry, with 130 Companies and its strengths in software are globally recognised. The combination of chip fabs, chip design and software will not only reduce costs but also shrink the time-to-market of semiconductor products....
Thursday, May 15, 2008
It has been a wonderful day for investors.I have been talking of the market rally since Apr.I wrote it here that 19k is possible by May/June end when market was around 15300.
Now 15300 is the bottom.We should see 19k as written.
Market was up by over 100 points yesterday and today again it is up by over 300 points.I still insist that please letgo chartist.They are just good for nothing.
Will anyone tell me , which chartist was able to predict two down circuit in 2 days in Jan 21st and 22nd of this year?If anyone has done then he must have not to do anything for whole life.But that was not the case and still people talk in the technical language.When I see this I feel very sad.
Even after seeing this tools becoming useless almost all time people still use to hear them at CNBC, NDTV Profit and also pays huge subscription to technical analyst.
I just got offline message from my friend regarding this chart analyst.
I am pasting it here for my readers.
A client opens an account with a broker who had 25 analysts. After seeking true advice on his position from these analysts he got 2 points on lower side and 2 points on higher side from every analyst. Finally he ended up with getting 50 supports and 50 resistances, surprisingly all different. With gr8 confusion he drank 1 sprite to quench his thirst of true advice. Sprite pite hi use satya ka gyan ho gaya : EVERY POINT ON THE NIFTY IS SUPPORT AND EVERY POINT ON THE NIFTY IS RESISTANCE
baki sab bakwas............
I have been advocating this since many years that this charts theory is not worth looking at.These are for those people who plays daily.There charts may work.But when we are investing then there is no need for charts,no need for support line, breakouts,S1,S2,S3,Resistance....R1,R2,R3...........what is that........Which support you will wait to sell,S1/S2/S3 and at which beark out you will buy to get max profit,R1/R2/R3 !Is there any answer?
I have seen these as some of my friends use to send me such charts.....
These is neccessary for brokerage houses so that people come and play and they earn from the brokeages .If all will become investor and sit on stocks then how will they earn?
Always go by fundamentals.That will always give great return.Fortune has been made only when stocks were hold for LT.But we are even not ready to hold it for 1 year , leave 2-3 years.We actually gets perturbed only in 2-3 months.Like we saw the big correction from Mid January.Masters of the stock market started speaking dooms day and if Shankar Sharma , Marc Faber ,JimRogers say something then I can understand as they have direct exposer to international market and they can see what is happening..., though it is another different thing that they seldom proves correct!.....but when a novice speak opinion and that with full authority I feel laughing.Each and every investor strated speaking about market and the tone was bearish and that was the time to be bullish.
One thing I have observed is that people are very quick to bookprofit.As soon as he gets a 2-3 rs he sells and if the stocks goes down , he will hang on for the loss of 8-10 rs...Why?I don't understand this view.When you are happy with 2-3 rs profit why u r hanging for a loss of 8-10 rs?So people loose 800-1000 rs and gets only 200-300 if he has called correct on any 100 shares traded .Now that is horrible!Horrible mentality!
Now the real bottomline comes here.....One is ready to loose Rs 800-1000 per day but if he has to buy a Van Heusen or Louis Philippe shirt or pant which barely cost the same amt then he says oh ! it is too costly….or if he has to buy a costly TOY /dress for his/hers, son/daughter he will think twice…..or has to help ones brother/sister or nearest friends or relative he will give some reason……..
Remember if one do not trade and do not loose in market it means he is saving that money as amt not lost is as good as saved……so while doing nothing in stock market , while sitting in front of a screen at brokers office is as good as saving money.No one on the earth has made money while trading….otherwise we should have heard that Warren Buffet or Rakesh Jhunjhunwala or Peter Lynch has made money while trading….day trading……but we have never heard of that.
I again reiterate that stay away from day trading and playing in F&O….they are injurous for your financial health.
We use to discuss here many fundamental stocks.Read them.Try to find more facts on your own and then feels good then buy it.Fundamentals has always prevailed over technicals…..Watch CNBC, NDTV Profit etc but keep the vol closed……….except some masters.But that too take as a pinch of salt.
I feel we can see a new high before Diwali and that I have written in my previous post as well.If dollar will appreciate then Gas will become cheap in USA and if that happens then inflation and slow down in USA will be arrested and we will see Dow at 16,000 by the end of this year which I see almost possible….
Just hold stocks which I have discussed if one has bought.That is what I will tell.Patience has always paid.Don’t be sceptic……
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Eq : 5.5 cr
BV : 90
CMP : 61
FV : 10
Apcotex was established in the year 1980 as a division of Asian Paints (India) Ltd., the largest paint manufacturer in India. Apcotex spun-off as a separate company in 1991 and is now part of the 'APCO' group of companies headed by Mr. Atul Choksey, Chairman of Apcotex Industries Ltd. and former Managing Director of Asian Paints. With basic engineering and process know-how from Chemische Werke Huls (CWH) Germany, Apcotex pioneered the production of Vinyl Pyridine Latex, an important raw material for the tyre industry, in India. Subsequently, products such as Carboxylated Styrene Butadiene Latices, Nitrile Latices and Styrene Butadiene Rubbers were developed in-house.
Apcotex Industries Ltd. is one of the leading producers of Synthetic Latices (VP latex, XSB latex, Nitrile latex) and Synthetic Rubber (HSR, SBR) in India. The company has one of the broadest ranges of products based on Styrene – Butadiene chemistry available in the market today. Their range of Latices is used, among other applications, for TYRE CORD DIPPING, PAPER/PAPER BOARD COATING, CARPET BACKING, CONCRETE MODIFICATION/WATER PROOFING and TEXTILE FINISHING. The various grades of Synthetic Rubber find application in products such as footwear, automotive components, v-belts, conveyer belts and hoses.
Over the past several years,they have developed a strong Research & Development base, which has enabled them to develop, manufacture and export products and compete effectively against global players. Through their technical service team and well-equipped application laboratory, they also provide value added services to enable customers to constantly improve the quality of their final product.
Their manufacturing plants are located at Taloja, 50 kms. outside of Mumbai. The manufacturing facilities incorporate state-of-the-art emulsion polymerization technology as well as adequate monomer and finished goods storage facilities and efficient utility support. Additionally, sophisticated DCS control systems ensure fine control over operating parameters.
Apcotex believes in implementing best practices across all departments of the company. They adhere to high quality, safety and environmental standards. Apcotex, an ISO 9001: 2000 certified company, is also in the process of implementing the TOTAL PRODUCTIVE MAINTENANCE (TPM) program under the guidance of the JAPAN INSTITUTE OF PLANT MAINTENANCE (JIPM). They have state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities, with plants strategically located just outside the port city of Mumbai, on the west coast of India.
Apcotex is constantly incorporating latest manufacturing/processing technologies and introducing new products to meet changing customer requirements. A range of sophisticated laboratory analytical instruments, well-equipped pilot plant facilities and close interaction with renowned institutions like The National chemical Laboratory (Pune), Indian Rubber manufacturer’s research Association (Mumbai) and Central Pulp and Paper Research Association (Saharanpur) for advanced analytical services, helps the company achieve its objectives.
Their Research and Development laboratory is recognized by the Department of Scientific and Industrial research (DSIR), Ministry of Science & Technology, Government of India.
To have world-class manufacturing facilities, Apcotex has been practicing TPM for the last few years with the help of the Japanese Institute of Plant Maintenance (JIPM). The objective is to achieve zero defects, zero losses, zero accidents and zero breakdowns.
Apcotex Ind is making profit since last 3 qr and hence can safely assumed that it can show and EPS of over 10 this year ending Mar 09.While other rubber product co getting valuation higher of around over 20 P/E then with a conservative P/E of 12-15 , Apcotex Ind can touch 110-120 in a year time and hence can be a good buy at this level for a 70-80% return.
Apcotex Ind is available below BV and promoters has increased the stake since couple of years from below 40% to now over 51% which shows the confidence of promoters in the company.
This is my view and due diligence is a must for everybody.One should cross check the information given here and take a call.
Apcotex Ind recomended dividend after many years and the Div declared is 30%.This again confirms my take that company is now on a growth path and will deliver profits constantly otherwise there was no need for a dividend decalartion and that too as big as 30%.....even 10% div would have been suffice to show the investment community that company is out of woods....
Keeping my fingures crossed.....
Thursday, May 8, 2008
So Read on:
The Wall Street JournalInvestment in ethanol is surging. But how much of a role will it play in powering automobiles? Vinod Khosla, managing partner of Khosla Ventures, has invested in a number of alternative-fuel ventures. Red Cavaney, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, is cautious about when alternatives can make a big difference.Messrs. Khosla and Cavaney talked to The Wall Street Journal's Kimberley A. Strassel. Here are edited excerpts.
KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL: What role will ethanol play in the future? What are its limits, what are its potentials, and how does it fit in with everything else?
VINOD KHOSLA: The way to think about the problem is over the next 15-plus years, we'll ship one billion new cars. When it comes to transportation and carbon reduction in transportation, what technology can get into 500 million to 800 million of these cars, at least, to make any material difference? There's one and only one choice, and that's cellulosic ethanol, because biomass is scalable in a big way, so it has to be the feedstock. You have to start with a scalable feedstock. You have to start with a technology that doesn't cost any money. A car costs the same whether it's flex-fuel or not.Cellulosic ethanol and flex-fuel cars are the only ones that can get to 500 to 800 million cars. So what's the fuel? We need a low-carbon fuel. The only feedstock is biomass.
MS. STRASSEL: But right now, we're dealing with the corn-based ethanol industry.
MR. KHOSLA: Corn-based ethanol has been a good steppingstone. It has established the market. It's made it easy for me to have 10 different cellulosic ventures, because now it's worth me taking the technology risk, which I would not have taken had the market not existed. But there's no question [about] the kinds of price targets we are talking about -- about $1 a gallon within five years and probably within two. Both oil and corn ethanol will have a difficult time competing in price with biomass-based fuels. In fact, last year, I forecast oil would have to decline to $35 a barrel by 2030 to be competitive. It is the alternative fuel 20 years from now.
RED CAVANEY: I think there's no question that there is going to be some successor fuel to oil and gas. The issue is that the transition, for which nobody knows the duration, be managed sufficiently so that the consumer has a reliable supply of fuel so they can continue to rely on automobiles, trains, whatever the case may be. We are presently absorbing as much ethanol as can be made. It does a lot of advantageous things for us. It adds octane to the fuel, gives it more power. It helps us rely a little bit less on having to import into the country.We have some challenges, and I think the most important thing that could happen is that we get away from the myths about things and start to deal with the facts.
MS. STRASSEL: What do you think the myths are?
MR. CAVANEY: That we can move overnight from wherever we are today to cellulosic ethanol. It will take time. [Ethanol] is going to play an important role, but it's got to be a longer transition, and that's why we don't want people to act too precipitously upfront. Let's learn, let's move together, and the right solution for the consumer will end up coming out at the end of the pipe.
MR. KHOSLA: Red said that we need an alternative fuel. It may or may not be ethanol, and I think we would probably agree on that. We're working on cellulosic ethanol, cellulosic gasoline, cellulosic jet diesel, cellulosic biocrude. You name it; we're looking at the fuel. And I can't tell you sitting here that cellulosic ethanol is going to be the answer. Fortunately, we were able to change the energy bill to refer to cellulosic fuels, not cellulosic ethanol alone, to allow for the wide variety of experimentation.A Viable Industry
MS. STRASSEL: Give me a year in the future when you think we're going to have a viable cellulosic ethanol industry.
MR. KHOSLA: Starting next year.( that is qiuck, early isn't it?)
MS. STRASSEL: Commercially viable?
MR. KHOSLA: The first commercial plants that are cheaper than both oil and corn ethanol are targeted to start operation at the end of next year, probably be in full operation in 2010.
MS. STRASSEL: When you say cheaper than oil, is that standing on its own or with --
MR. KHOSLA: Every time I talk about cheaper, I mean unsubsidized market competitiveness. Whether you get subsidies on top or incentives doesn't matter. Every single effort I talked about is meant to be competitive with oil at $45 a barrel, unsubsidized, within five years.
MS. STRASSEL: Red, what year?
MR. CAVANEY: I don't know the exact year, but it's later rather than sooner, not that we won't make the technical breakthrough, not that Vinod's plant won't come on and produce it. But to really have a meaningful impact, you need to get the volumes up.Everybody has a scheme to say, "Well, we ought to go tax the oil and gas industry to fund all these alternative products." We invest more than our total income, and we've done that for decades because we're a capital-intensive depleting industry.So what we want to do is make sure you keep oil and gas there until these other things really can stand on their own, they get the volumes, and as Vinod said, we're not sure what the ultimate successor is going to be. It may be something we haven't even thought of yet.Chicken and Egg
MS. STRASSEL: Don't you have a chicken-and-egg problem here? There are something like 169,000 independent retail gas stations across the country, all of whom would have to decide that they were going to make this big investment to sell ethanol to their customers. If you don't have that in place, people won't buy the cars. If people don't buy the cars, the retail gas industry or anybody in the industry won't want to take the step of putting this out there for customers who don't have cars. Which comes first?
MR. CAVANEY: One of the big challenges that we have, of course, is how do you get that product from where it's actually in the refinery to where the consumer is. Of the 169,000 retail outlets that you spoke of, almost 95% of those are not owned by the oil companies; they're owned by individual entrepreneurs who have to make a decision on whether to invest. They're not going to do that till they see demand.We have a love/hate relationship with the auto, but let me tell you something that we did that we thought was in everyone's best interest and worked it out.We went forward over the last four years and put over $8 billion in investment in ultralow-sulfur diesel. We took 97% of sulfur out of the diesel. It is now the cleanest diesel fuel in the world. We had to do that before Detroit ever produced their first new generation of diesels that they're trying to sell. So we went first, made the investment.When you look at E-85 [85% ethanol, 15% gasoline], the autos have got to go first because if they don't create the vehicles to get the demand, how are you going to convince those people to make the investment?
MS. STRASSEL: Why is it different from diesel?
MR. CAVANEY: Because in diesel, we had to make the investment to go first, and they had to trust us that we would do it to bring their cars along.Here, we're saying the autos have to produce the cars first. It isn't going to all come on overnight, but it can come on gradually.
MR. KHOSLA: This is the chicken-and-egg question that has to be solved by policy. The three largest U.S. auto makers -- GM, Ford, and Chrysler -- have said by 2012, 50% of their cars will be flex-fuel cars. That's a lot of new cars. And they stood with President Bush and announced that last year.What needs to happen is the oil companies [need] to sign up for a mandate. And there's a very simple mandate on pump distribution that makes sense. You don't want every one of those 169,000 stations to offer E-85. You don't need the mom-and-pop stores to offer it. Every station that sells more than $5 million of liquid fuel a year [would have] an E-85 pump, if that was the mandate. If you have one E-85 among the 16 different pumps you have, we will cover 25% to 30% of the automobiles in this country. That, with Detroit's commitment, would solve our problem. That's the voluntary commitment we need from the oil companies and their franchisees.Who Pays?
MS. STRASSEL: Who pays for that? Who pays for that mandate?
MR. KHOSLA: There are strong federal incentives to put those pumps in. I do believe in the end it needs to be a mandate, and the sense I get is the auto companies would sign up for a 50% flex-fuel-car mandate by 2012 if the oil companies signed up for 10% of the highest-volume pumps to have E-85.
MS. STRASSEL: Red, do you think that's the case?
MR. CAVANEY: There are enough mandates in this business right now that makes it complex enough.This is a big challenge. It's not going to be solved overnight, and even a mandate isn't going to do that. So what we need to do is work together, and I think that's the solution.
MR. KHOSLA: There is no reason this mandate doesn't make sense. You know, we do have a mandate on what your tailpipe emissions can be. Why not this? Because it is so critical to global security and global climate change.
MS. STRASSEL: I have been surprised by the number of people I've talked to in the audience who are involved in different forms of alternative technology, who have been a little miffed at the ethanol industry. They feel as though it has gotten the lion's share of government help and support and that its time should be over, that it doesn't actually do enough for global-warming reductions, for instance, and other things.What do you have to say to these people? When will ethanol be set free to do its own thing without government mandates or help?
MR. KHOSLA: I don't believe we need continuation of subsidies for a long time. I've always said every renewable technology, be it solar, wind, cellulosic ethanol, should not get subsidies for more than five to seven years after its introduction in the market. But we need to get competition started. We need competition for oil.
I hope I have not to summarise my views as I have already highlighted them in bold and color letters.......Ready to discuss.........with anyone about this topic........
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Are We In For Another Mayhem?
For those who have even a remote involvement with the Indian market,May is a month to watch out for. In May 2004,political instability,following the fall of the BJP government,accounted for the drastic fall, while in 2006,it was a dip in commodity prices that led to the bear phase.There were no scams to lay the blame on.The reasons were genuine,but the falls were hard. Although the reasons were vastly different,the enormity was the same.On both the occasions,trading came to a halt as the benchmark indices hit lower circuits. Going into the May of 2008,the markets are still smarting from the dip since January.The slide has been consistent,though there were rays of hope in between.The reasons that brought about corrections in 2004 and 2006 — political instability and a fall in commodity prices — are looking as dicey as ever. Shakti Shankar Patra presents both sides of the argument — on behalf of the bulls as well as the bears — on whether the ‘May mayhem’will rear its ugly head yet again or not.
The Bull Will Always Rule :
However ridiculous it may sound, the fact is that stocks are actually invented to go up. They are like evolution and the human mind: in the long run, they get better. And though, once in a while, some crackpots manage to short the market, it is more a case of chance. Bearishness is actually a kind of mental disorder suffered by pessimists, who hate to see prosperity all around. See what happened to one of the most celebrated bears of the last century, Jesse Livermore. A victim of clinical depression, Livermore had made huge fortunes by shorting the market during the crashes of 1907 and 1929. But being a perennial bear, it didn’t take long for all these fortunes to blow away. By the time Livermore blew out his brains, his net worth was just a fraction of what they were in the early 1930s.
There is no doubt that India is a long-term secular bull market. After hitting 3,000 in 2003, the Sensex has moved just one way. There had been corrections, but whenever the market touched a bottom, it was higher than the previous bottom. Likewise, when it rose to a high, it had been higher than the previous high. This sequence of higher-bottoms and better highs is intact even now. So, unless we touch a low that is lower than the previous low, — ie, we don’t go below 13780 on the Sensex — the bull run, for all measures, is on track. For an economy growing at close to 9%, a P/E of around 22 doesn’t look overexpensive, either. So, don’t miss the bus once again.
Bull. You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet
In a country where the average age of the population is just 24, history probably dates back only as far as 2003. So, a majority of the suckers (read retail investors) have absolutely no clue as to what a bear market is and we are sure that by the time they realise, it would be all too late. Moreover, if you thought ‘a buy and hold’ strategy pays great rewards in the long run and, therefore, hold through this bear market, then maybe, just maybe, you haven’t heard that in the long run, we are all dead — some bear markets actually stretch for decades. Ask anyone who bought Japanese stocks in 1990, he will tell you that even after 20 years, the portfolio is down 70%. And if you adjust it for inflation, then you know what is left, right?
Before you start talking about valuations, let’s tell you that in terms of the market capitalisationto-GDP ratio, India is close to where the Japan was at the peak of its bubble in 1990. And with inflation close to 8%, a general election lurking and earnings growth on its way down, you need to be absolutely naive to believe that the bull run is back on track. The current rally of 10-15% is nothing more than a bear market rally induced by a panicking Fed, which is printing dollars and inflating asset prices.
So, before it’s too late, sell out your holdings and short with all might, because in May, this market is going to show the full movie of the trailer that you saw in January.
ILLUSTRATION: RAJESH KARANDA
Taken from Economics Times.
Jesse Livermore was a great player and he started with a scratch and learned his way.He use to work at share broker office where he got interested why stocks goes up and down and when it goes up and down......Great character to read.....we can learn from his mistakes.
I would also like to add here that I do not concur with the second view of the auther.Seems he is not sure what he is writing.He is banking on that every two years there is a Mayhem in May and even I have already started getting feelers that May will be very very bad.But I have a contra view.He writes against becoming a perennial Bear is so dangerous and still at the end he says May mayhem lingers large on our market.I am totally flattered by his second view.
But I purposefully pasted this article from ET as I wanted to let you know about one perennial Bear , Jesse Livermore.If one can ,then one should try to read him...surf the internet through google and try to read about Jesse Livermore.
As I have said May/June end we can see even 19,000 and by Diwali we can cross new high........
Saturday, May 3, 2008
This I am writing because someone asked me whether my call which I gave at mmb at Rs 23/-....is Flex Ind or not?
I get surprised to see someone asking me about co name when I have written very clearly the name......But seems they are not ready to do any work....like going to bse site and write the first 3 letters of co and find it out which co is that......
Where I am more surprised is, it is their own money they are investing and still they do not bother to look at the bsesite......I don't say that one should be able to find everything as much as I can do but the primary things which anyone can do should be done atleast....
OK,I am again posting the text which I wrote at mmb while giving a buy call......
.and Flex Food Ltd has come out with excellent results for Mar 2008.The sales has increased by just 13% but the NP has increaed by 49% , and that means the profit margin has increased.
Go to bse site and check it.
I am just making you all stand on your legs....do it......
Friends,I am giving a buy call on Flex Foods Ltd a Uflex Ltd gr co(old Flex Ltd)....Flex Foods Ltd. is going in for expansion plan for natural, herbal and formulated products & their derivatives and biotechnology.
Originally they are in Vacuum Freeze Dried, Air-Dried, Frozen and IQF (Individually Quick Frozen) product range of mushrooms, herbs, spices and fruits / vegetables, meeting strict quality & hygiene standards.The sales has almost remained stagnant at Rs 9 cr for the Sep qr ended which was Rs 8.6 cr last sep 06.. but the NP has gone up considerably from just Rs. 79 lacs to Rs.1.38 c in this sep qr...The NPM(Net profit margin) aslo has increased from...9% to over 15%....Promoters hold over 59 % stake which shows the confidence of promoters in their co..
1)The co . has gone for expansion programme at Dehradun at the cost of Rs.28 cr inMar 2005, for setting up Air dried (Dehydrated) and Frozen (Individually Quick Frozen) facilities for Mushrooms, Herbs, Fruits & Vegetables..etc... and the same is seen in the increase in the profibility.....
2)Flex Foods Ltd is also having a health care division , in Noida,which will also contribute in sales and profit later in future....
Summary:Looking at the above parametres it seems that Flex Foods Ltd is on a high growth path and hence can be another dark horse in times to come....Currently Flex Foods Ltd is quoted at Rs 23 at BSE and almost 100% stocks is going in delivary which also signals that someone is accumalating Flex Foods Ltd.....
Friday, May 2, 2008
Many expert were sceptic about Nifty closing over 5150 and there we are.....
Nifty not only closed above 5150 but also gave a weekly close to show the strength.
I would now like to see what the Chart Analyst speak about the nifty and Sensex? Their Achilles Hills is 5150 and that is done and that too on a weekly base.....now what next ?
I have very clearly written in my last two post that we can see 19,000 by May/June....I think we are nearing that.Though we have a long way to go.....
Well,US market is showing enormous strength and Dow has crossed 13,000 today on the news that Jobs fall is less then expected.
I still feel that US economy will be out of woods by second half.
I remember I gave a call on JaySynth Dye stuff at mmb some year and half back at Rs 12 and it immidiately went on to touch Rs 20/- and thereafter it retraced back to below Rs 10 level.Maybe the low was Rs 7/-.....
Some who bought asked me then whether to hold or sell in a loss.Well,I told to hold may be those who have no confident must have sold.
But after remaining in hibernation for almost over a year, Jaysynth Dyestuff post excellent results with an quaterly eps of 2.8 and that too on 1 paidup.
Well, this is what one can get when one keep patience.I think Jaysynth Dyestuff can touch Rs 50 within a year.This is my view and do not fall as a BUY CALL.........But I will not be surprised if someone like Muder Patheriya can come out with a buy call....This is my projection.
If anyone wants to buy then just go to bse site.See the results , SHP etc ...do due diligence and then buy......if at all one wants to do it.
Well, coming back to the market,I think that if US market will go up , Dollar will appreciate then there is no reason why our market will not cross it's previous high....Well,if dollar will appreciate then the commodities price will also come down and that includes OIL,IRON ORE.....and commodities......