Saturday, March 26, 2011

My blog.....

When I first started the blog in Dec 2007, I was also not knowing how much long I would be able to carry it.
Many friends use to tell me to start a blog where small investors can be beniffited from it.
I got the help from one of my friend named Prashant who is an IT Eng and is working in Banglore.
He actually did everything here.I am a none IT guy and I donno how to create a blog.
I thanks Prashant for creating the outlay of this blog.
I did nothing here.He made a blog and I started writing here.That's it.
Well, I was also not sure for how long I will be able to write at my blog and that too that much frequently that the blog remains active.I am not a writer nor has taken any training how to write on blog or anywhere.This was my first experiance to write publicly.I have many followers and many critisizer.I do not mind them.Difference of oipnion is part of life.I have seen that some readers are not happy on my view and hence they debate it out.Maybe they are not able to understand what I am saying or either I am not able to understand what they are saying.I have always keep the comment section open even though I received some comments which were not readable as it directly attacked me personally and still barring couple of them, just couple, I have published each and every comments.
I myself has come from a family where all have liberty to do whatever they wants to.Have all liberty to speak whatever comes in mind.There is no need to write this here about the freedom I have got from my parents and they got from their parents but I am writing here just to say that I have inherited, the Freedom for everything and hence I also have kept that tradition alive here.I may feel hypocrate to some as they may feel that I not not doing exactlty what I am saying , like I do not let anyone write against me and retaliate very harshly.But if someone will try to look at what I am trying to do then I feel that I am on right track.But even I can err somewhere.I am a human being and I have my drawbacks.
I am always very clear in my mind whenever I write something, be it on stock market, world economy , our heritage, Ramayan or Mahabharat or writing on any other topic, Viz: Corruption, Luck or writing on any individual achievement like Anil Naik of L&T or Lisa Ray on her fight with cancer and coming out completely cured.I have no confusion in my mind when I write anything here and that is why I can discuss things here very clearly as I am always very clear in my mind what I am upto or what I am trying to write or explain.I think the main reason for me to be very clear in my mind is because I read a lot.
Friends,it is easy then done.But it is hard to come out every other day and write here.It is hard to write anything because  there are different moods, different routines, different personal work, daily routines, jobs, other reading , following market etc etc......and after that I am able to comes out here and write on blog.
But still I had done it.I have strived to write and discuss things at my level best.Maybe somewhere I have been harsh in answering on comments but I hope readers don't mind it and understand what I should be going through.
Differences are part oif life and it will remain there and if we still continue to remain friends  that is the best things that can happen.
I don't write unless I have real something to write and hence sometimes it takes more time to write .
Coming to the market , I think market closed above the 200 DMA, 5600, and that is a good sign.I sometimes don't understand the language of technicals analyst.They religiouly follow technicals about double top  and high/ low and resistance amd support and head and shoulder etc etc and they also say sometimes that some trends are false trend and need not be followed.
That again says that technical analyst also see whatever they wants to wish.If some trend says that a bullish pattern is created then they say that is a false signal...........Every rally from hereon will be a bull rally in bear market as per them  untill the market crosses the previous recent top of 21k! and by that time , the stocks would have already gone up and we would have already missed the oppertunity.
The best thing to do is, buy when one sees value and then hold it.Why wait for bullish signal.The bullish signal do not come with the bell ringing in everyone ears.There is no foolproof sign that one can say now market is back in bullrun .So why wait for that signal.If  there is a signal like that then everyone can make millions and billions.Why that doesn't happen?

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Warren Buffet..About economy and stock market(World).....Directly from horses mouth

The Legend is here.Warren Buffet is here.I am tracking him.I may miss couple of things here or there and would be grateful if someone will write that.
Well,I think there is no doubt about his wisdom.There can be no doubt about his ability to see things much much earlier then anyone else.
There can be no two opinion when WB experiance come in picture.He is a veteran and he is the master.
I know there are many guys who are smarter then him(WB).There are many who finds fault in his picking.There are master who are masters of Warren Buffet.I have nothing to say to them.If they are supermasters even a feet taller then Warren Buffet, they need to ignore my post.
Well, I am not going to write anything here what the Great Master is speaking about current state of affairs of world.I will high light those sentences in the below text and one need to read and take own call on market in India as well of world economy.

Here it goes:

The Oracle of Omaha, on his maiden visit to India, has been greeted with blazing cameras from the moment he landed in Bangalore and Warren Buffet is a man on a mission. CNBC-TV18’s Sajeet Manghat and Menaka Doshi report.
India has grown to something significantly more than a blip on map of billionaire investor Warren Buffet. Once an investment destination that could be skipped, Buffett admits that investing in India today is but a logical decision.
One of the important question is who will succeed Buffet at Berkshire Hathaway? Could it be Ajit Jain, the head of Buffett's insurance business?
In his media address, Buffet said, “Ajit Jain is much better than I am. He has made more money for Berkshire than I have. Jain is an extraordinary human being. I don't know about him replacing me at Berkshire.”
So the oracle is tightlipped about the future, but his present goal is to enjoy his three days in India and see if he can maybe spy any more investment opportunities in the country.
It's no surprise that Buffett's first visit to India coincides with the start of his insurance agency business in India. And it's also not a surprise that he wants more from the government.
But his visit is not just about pushing his investment agenda. He also has words of wisdom for the investor who's looking to get started.
Buffett also has no qualms in accepting failures and admits his decisions have not bee perfect all the time. But he is adamant that the hunt for that one perfect idea in a year should never be forsaken.
He is also not worried about the slew of bad news that has emerged in recent times -- be it the middle east crisis, or the disaster in Japan, or India's brush with allegations of corruption. He sees these are mere interruptions, not dead-ends.
So, what's his take on the US, global economy and on the ongoing debate of outsourcing?
Buffet said that the US economy is improving steadily and the Japan quake will not impact growth in world economy.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Monnet old call buys Indonesian Thermal Coal Mines....

Monnet Ispat Scoops Up Indonesian Coal Firm For $24M
Deal to secure raw material requirements for Monnet Group's coastal power projects.
March 21, 2011, 04:53 PM IST

CX Partners-backed sponge iron maker Monnet Ispat & Energy Ltd has acquired Indonesian coal company PT Sarwa Sembada Karya Bumi for $24 million or around Rs 108 crore. The deal gives Monnet access to thermal coal mine spread over 25,000 hectares of which only 1,500 hectares have been explored. Besides, the company has established 65 million tonnes of coal reserve at the mine, at present.
The acquired firm has operations in the Jambi province of Sumatra region in the South East Asian country, that has become one of the most targeted ground for Indian firms specially steel producers and power generation firms to secure their natural resource requirements.
Sandeep Jajodia, executive vice chairman & managing director of Monnet Ispat & Energy said due to the location of the coal mine it would be cost effective to ship the coal back to India to feed the group’s coastal power projects.
“We plan to mine more coal than required for our captive needs, for selling in the open market which will be a long term source of revenue, as there seems to be good potential for the reserves to go up substantially,” he said.
Jajodia added that the Indian firm managed to acquire the asset at a low value as the deal was struck in 2008, but the final agreement took time to execute due to various regulatory processes.
Last April, the new private equity firm floated by former Citigroup Venture Capital India chief Ajay Relan had picked around 8% stake in Monnet Ispat through the secondary market.
The group had also raised capital from Blackstone for its power arm. Blackstone had invested Rs 275 crore (approximately $60 million) for 12.5% equity stake in Monnet Power Company Limited, an independent power producer that is developing a 1,050 MW coal fired power plant in Orissa backed by pit-head captive coal mines

Tuesday, March 15, 2011


Can anyone think of market going up and that too by over 250 points when there are news of nuclear disaster in Japan?Can market go up when there are news of earth quake in Japan?
Can any one imagine when crude is at $100 market can still go up?
Everyone in market is surprised why market went up yesterday! But that is market.That is what biggies think of market.
Why market went up?Becuase market thinks that there will be demand for steel from Japan for restructuring the Infra which was distructed in earthquake.So Tisco, Jindal steel etc went up.
Rubber prices went down so tyre shares went up.
But who will get the orders.Which Co will be benifitted?No one knows untill the orders starts pouring in.Then why market went up?
According to my reading, the market went up because there was little space for it to go down.Maybe today it can go down.
Otherwise Crude coming back from $116 to $100 is no reason for market to come down.But yes, it is an anamoly that with earthquake and Tusnami taking place in Japan the crude oil prices should have even more gone up due to destabilisation of carriers in sea etc but that didn't happen and that also says that $116 for crude was also at HIGH.No way that price can go up above that atleast in ST.
So as I said earlier that there was not enough room for market to go down and hence it went up likewise Crude also came down even with the disaster news in Japan.
Moreover , taking market up and down is still in hand of operators which I can say that when everyone was expecting market to tank, it went up.
That means that if the whole lot of investors are selling in F&O and stocks then market goes up and those who tried to short the market caught on wrong foot.
So it can be said that operators play according to what the investors play.If investors are buyer then they are seller and if they are seller then they are buyer.
Well, that is just for a perticular day like the one we saw yesterday.
Market opened in positive note with 50-100 points up and never went down and kept going up and up to end at 265 points up.Not even for a second it went in negative territory.
This is the best time to buy stocks.Buy them and sit on them.

Monday, March 14, 2011

Chandrakant Sampat: The magician of D-street............

Veteran stock market investor Chandrakant Sampat is regarded by many as the Warren Buffett of India. The 82 year old investor leads an active yet simple life that includes daily jogging and yoga exercises.

He has got an acute sense of the economy giving him an edge over others. In a freewheeling chat with CNBC Awaaz's managing editor Sanjay Pugalia, the media shy Samat opens up about his personal triumphs and his views on various issues.
Below is a verbatim transcript of the interview.
Q: What are the top tips investors should keep in mind while investing?
A: When I started somewhere in 1955, it was the controller of capital issue, which was in-charge. It was his duty to see that the companies who needed capital or who came for the capital unloaded the investment on the public at a very reasonable price. The value was the whole focus of the controller of capital issue. That kind of an advantage we do not have now.
The second thing is that in the last 50 years, i.e. 1955 to 2000 was a period of great stability in which you could visualize what may come about. So you can take a stand for a longer period for compounding of your wealth.

Q: How do you identify good companies from the bad ones?
A: Look out for four things. One is least capital expenditures. Two is since there is least capital expenditure, there are no borrowings. That means there are no future costs that are not provided for. Three is the return on capital employed should not be less than 25%. Then it adds to the fourth that these companies give a big chunk of their earnings as a dividend.
Let us look at it this way: The Dow has compounded at 5% in the last 100 years but the good dividend paying companies have done the other way. They have done 8.5%. So dividends are more important. It is real cash flow in the hands of the shareholders. All this, what you call innovations in the form of bonus — bonus is nothing else but an ‘IOU’ given for the accrued expenses still not incurred. So what is necessary is, how much dividend do we get? Is the dividend compounding?
There have been some companies here where the compounding of dividend has been as high as 50%.

Q: Which companies would fit the bill in this criterion?
A: You won’t get more than eight-10 companies. We have already entered a very turbulent time where there are absolutely no certainties. You perceive your investment to be — however you may think you are going to create wealth out of it — it may not work because of the turbulence that is happening all around the world.
Therefore, depending on the age, one must have other income, which one may be able to write-off should things not work out. ( I have been writing this many times here that one should be able to writeoff that amt invested in stock market and still one is able to run the house.One needs to have other income where one can run the daily expenditure of the house)
In the strategy that I follow, I don’t cover more than 10 companies in my investment portfolio. If you spread it out, so many of them will go wrong and very few will come right. So it will be squared out. But if you are in eight-10 companies, even one giving you everything, will cover your wealth.

Q: What is your favourite theme right now? How would you look at different businesses going forward?
A: We have already entered turbulence where sustainability is broken. The cycles earlier used to be 150 years. Then it came to 100 years and then to 50 years. Now upto 2000, it has come to 10-20 years and maybe with the turbulence that is now taking place, it will be still shorter. Therefore, your ability to write-off the risk should be pepped up.

Q: There were limited means of investment during your times. However, things have become a lot more complex in the current scenario. We see the derivative segment dominating others where there is more risk. How do you read the situation?
A: I would say it the way George Soros has put it. Today, the mutual fund industry is around USD 70 trillion world-over. They only chase momentum and no value. What it is now and what is their performance is what they want to decide. They don’t want to see values and as I have said as well, in the new age, the values are also deceptive because the cycles are getting fractured.
Now the new cycle that is getting fractured is the advent of this type of global economy. That is getting fractured.

Q: What is your biggest concern for the global economy?
A: Let’s look at what can affect the global economy because we are totally linked to it. We are not in anyway immune. So, you take the instance of the United States (US) today, which will have a constitutional liability of USD 240 trillion by 2040, mainly in social securities and healthcare.
The deficits are growing. These are financed by their current account deficit and by QE1, QE2 and what not — by easing and printing to attain US aims. Now, the same thing is happening here. We are financing our consumption-based growth today. What we talk about 9% growth, it is entirely based on current account flows coming in and the current account deficit is financed by these capital flows of USD 4 trillion a day because they are greedy. They want immediate returns and for that point they are there.
Our fiscal deficit is growing. So what happens at a time when the US, which is a reserve currency, cannot reroll its debt and the whole global economy is today predominantly invested with the reserve currency, that is the US dollar. That is the biggest risk — if it gets fractured and the whole system falls.

Q: Do you think the worst is over or there is still more to come?
A: There is a huge asset liability mismatch that is taking place. The real assets are provided by mother earth. This is something which we have inherited. The mismatch is the printed fiat money, which finances the global capital flows. They are the liabilities. This asset liability mismatch is growing at a very rapid pace.
As I see it, a bigger crisis may come about perhaps even within my life time — it’s quite possible
Q: I had read an interview of yours in 2005 where you might have predicted the 2008 crisis. How can we insulate ourselves from global turmoil?
A: I think today the entire national charge world-over is with politicians, bureaucrats, economists and elites. What happens is they are more concerned about their short-term benefits. They want to ignore what is coming — maybe they know what may come about but they want to keep it aside. The first duty of these who are in charge of the economy is to really inform the people what is coming and some steps should be taken to get into this kind of a social equality which is needed, if we want to avoid revolutions which we are now seeing.

Q: Can you elaborate more on the concerns that you talked about?
A: The first thing would be if abruptly the capital flows stop. We cannot finance the current account deficit. Then the question is that since the natural resources are limited and there is a prediction by scientists that water shortages, food shortages, concerns about climate change — destruction of fauna and flora, deforestation — all these are elements of uncertainty. So how do we contend with it? The public should know about that.

Q: Do you think the premise of the India growth story is flawed?
A: Yes, it is true. Please understand the power of compounding. If we compound at 9% what can happen? What will be the printed money that will need to finance it? What will be the inflation and what will be the social attitude of our 75% of the people who earn just dollar a day? What are we doing — have we given a thought to it?

Q: How can the world overcome this financial crisis? Should we change our reserve currency and look towards gold etc?
A: The question of gold standard can be put very differently. Today, there is an asset liability mismatch. The assets are what is provided by nature and which cannot be replicated or which cannot be generated. It is what it is. We are just taking it out. The ratio of the printed money in relation to the real resources — this is a new gold standard. That is where we need to go and to go to that particular concept, what we need is a multidisciplinary team.

Q: This should be the job of political leadership of a country. Do you think our political heads will be able to meet these challenges?
A: I will put it this way: what we need at this stage is a call to those who are in-charge of the nation, they will need integrity and integrity is not merely humility. It is courage. They will have to develop the courage to come to the real integrity level. Our leadership is known for its humility, but it should now be known for its courage.

Q: What is your assessment of India Inc?
A: I think it is not the Indian companies alone. This format has gone world-over that every corporate is today interested in what it is now. They are least bothered with what can happen to the retirement funds. The holders of retirement funds have to be paid and if this USD 70 trillion worth of funds get fractured by this macro-economy what can happen. They have to think in that way and that is real corporate responsibility.

Q: Which company or sector would you choose to invest in right now?
A: I wouldn’t like to point out anything in particular. But I have talked about the platform companies where I have a vision. The vision may come true or it may not come true. If it doesn’t come true, even in these difficult times I will be able to stand.
But for that what one needs is high enlightenment and that is number one. Number two is high integrity. Number three is the vision for the value and number four is frugality. These are the four things on which I depend.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

A.K.Capital.....Rs.390......excellent LT pick.

Looks like market is consolidating.Range 5200-550.
But scores of excellent fundamentals stocks has come down.
I wrote on EPC Ind few days back at Rs 78 which was also my earlier call in 30's or 20's a year or so back.
It looks from the day I again recomended it here at Rs 66 and then at Rs 78, it is in upward journey and is making 52 week high.Today it was Rs 105.15 and was buyer for whole day.That is up from last 78 to 105 in few days.
I also talked about Kemrock Ind which was Rs 526 and is still at Rs 489.Means looks stronger then market.
Well, I have kept on writing to buy fundamentally sound stocks for couple of months and I donno how many must have bought it.
I keep getting queries of different stocks but I was nit much interest in them due to the price factor or sector in which they were.
The stocks I was trying readers to look at were like:
1) SNL Bearing ( NRB , MNC Co and excellent earnings)
2) Windsor Machine( VIP gr and excellent earnings)
3)EPC Ind which I have been discussing it here constantly.
4) Kemrock Ind
5) Siemens
7) IFCI ( whenever I have to recomend Fin stock I have recomended this)
Special mention for A.K.Capital here is because it has excellent fundamentals with eps as high as Rs 80 last year and has come down from 944 to 390 which to me looks an excellent pick.
It's eq is very low at 6.6 cr means 66 lacs shares.I remember someone asked me about it but at that time I was not tracking it and hence gave no view on it , but now when it has come down so much I feel it looks a good SIP buy.
One more thing I would like to write here is that one veteran investor cum operator has taken stake in this Co recently whose name I am not going to write it here as I wants my readers to find it out.
10) Pondi Oxide
11) HBL Power

There are many more but can't recall all and hence end it up here.

Monday, March 7, 2011


One of the reader named Sukanya wrote a comment on me and that went in spam and I deleted it accidently.But I read that comment and I would like to give answer for that commnet.

She wrote that after reading my reply to ThinkTank she cannot resist to write a comment here.She quoted that my answer regarding USA being powerful can act as wrong fully for the people of America then why I should critisize politicians who are powerful here in India and they act wrongfully for their children or relatives.
She wrote very strongly against me personally that I need to follow ethics and act as a responsible blog owner.
She wrote that I have no right to write against politicians who are also powerful and that I am not following what I am writing.
Well,my reply to Sukanya is that she is still not enough mature to understand the difference between doing for country man and doing for own.
USA do it for their people and here in India politicians do it for individual profit.If politicians act for their countryman and people of India then I have no problem with any politicians but they are doing for personal motives.The MOTIVES ARE DIFFERENT AND THAT IS WHERE SUKNAYA IS NOT ABLE TO DISTINGUISH THINGS.
I am very sad to see that my readers do not understand what I am saying and jump on hasty conclusion to critisize me.It looks like still some readers comes here to find fault of me and show me that I am a BIG hypocrate.
Well,I can't do much for the poor intellectual level of some readers who do not understand the finer prints of my writing and jump on conclusion to critisize me.But the reason I wrote it here is maybe some other readers may also be thinking the same way like Sukanya and even they do not write openly, so for them I had to write here that if any doubts are there in their mind needs to get settled.
I again write here in open,show me some concrete mistake, somewhere I am erring, some of my thoughts where I am wrong .I am always ready to correct it or accept it.

Dear Sukanya, if you still wants to debate this topic I am ready for that.
I donno how many readers thought like Sukanya!My blog is open for any discussion but need to be a worthy discussion otherwise it is all wasting of time.