Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Market making Lower Tops......

That is a bad sign.Market is making a lower Tops and that is not a good sign.
If one can observe then market is constantly making a lower Top.....every top is getting lower and that means that market is in a very bad shape.
FII's are selling in Loss as well and they are buying distressed asset in EU countries.Whether that move will be good or not time will only tell but they (FII's) are selling and investing in distressed assests in Europe Unions countries.
Even though oversaes market were looking good Indian Market were down and that says all.
If the GDP figures comes below 6.5% we can see capitulation in our market.
For the sake of inflation , which cannot be tamed by interest hike and raise in CRR , RBI went increasing it on behest of government and the result is there for us.Economics growth hindered,Cos getting loans at higher rates and hence outgo of int becoming more and hence bottomline get punished and hence performance becoming bad......

The present government has made a hell of a situtaion and market is in tailspin.I wrote recently that market can touch 3900 and seems we are heading for that.

When any stock or market starts making lower TOPS one needs to become more vigilant.Remember this RULE forever.
Another RULE I am disclosing is:

" When a stocks  makes a high and reacts and if it is more then 15-20% then forget that stock."

When I write forget that stock , it means that once a HIGH is made and when a stocks then goes down by over 15-20% then it is TIME  TO GET OUT FROM THAT STOCK.
It says that the distribution is taking place and we also need to get out.
Just try to recall stocks which you hold and see what happened to them once they reacted from the HIGH and the correction is over 15-20% and one will see invariably that stock will go down further.

Readers, please keep this always in MIND.Cut Paste this sentence and observe it whenever you can and if you feel what I am writing is correct then follow it either it be a BULL Market or Bear Market......

Well, what I am trying here to say is, once stock has made a new HIGH and then starts retracing by 15-20% then it will still further go down and then breaking the previosu HIGH will be a herculian task.That previous HIGH becomes a major resistance level for that stock and even if the stock is good it will keep on coming off from that HIGH several times and traders play that way.
They sell near the previous HIGH and stock will go down and then they will buy again and again sell near previosu HIGH and that they will do many times.

But there is catch as well here.One can trade in that stock and make some money but if stock is really good and results are coming good then one day when it will break the previous HIGH and go above it then it will not give chance to buy that stock.For example, Sujana Towers.It came back many times from a certain level of a HIGH and then when it broke that HIGH and went up it went up and up.......

I am not yet ready to write my list for A gr and B gr stock and I feel we have ample time not to buy in hurry and hence I am taking my own time as
But let me write here, this time will also go away and market will be back to normal but we will have to bear the pain.There is no way we can avoid this and hence best thing is to sit on sidelines and watch what market is doing.
I have been time and again writing that don't put borrowed money.Play with those money where one is sure will not be needed for 5 yrs.......
Market never fulfill our dream.It works on its own......

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Electrotherm Ltd...A case Study... Excellent Profit making Co converted in Loss making...!

Today I would like to write on Electrotherm Ltd.It was an excellent Co and suddenly since last 2 qrs the bottonline has gone very negative.I am stunned by the results. The loss are 136 cr for June qr and 156 cr for Sep qr 2011 respectively and that is a LOSS of almost 300 cr in first half.
Well, I was tracking Electrothern Ltd as it was a future bluechip in making and was posting excellent results qr by qr and yr by yr.
So suddenly what happened that Electrotherm started psoting huge losses?
In May/June 2010 management decided to takeover Hans Ispat Ltd and Shree Hans Paper Ltd, Electrotherm (India) Ltd  for  Rs 60 cr. When I read that annoucement at that time  I doubted it in my mind whether that was a right decision or not and looks like my suspicion has come out true unfortunately.
Why a Co which making excellent profit should buy Hans Ispat and Hans paper in which paper is not their core competence business?The sales were already over 2000 cr then why a Co has to acquire another Steel Co and a Paper Co?Is there something I am not able to see ?
The Interest outgo suddenly jumped from 41 cr to 82 cr from last June qr to this June qr.We all know that Steel is a capital Intensive business and if one do not play the cards properly you are bound to be in trouble.
Why a profit making Co take such decision to make it a LOSS making Co?
300 cr LOSS in 2 qrs and we don't know what is there in store for next 2 qrs! and how the Co will  makeup these losses is a big question coming to my mind. Rs 300 cr loss in one half is so big to cover up and then start making profit as well.
First Electrotherm will have to wipeoff this loss and then make profit , so from 300 cr loss to even small profit  of 30 cr , the table needs to be turned in such a way that Electrotherm should make a NP of Rs 330 cr ............and that is a Herculian task according to me for any Co .
Looks like Electrotherm has given us a glaring example how an excellent running Co can get converted in HUGE Loss making Co!A future bluechip Co is now a LOSS making Co.
Suddenly the expenditure has gone up then sales.In Sep 2011, the sales are 404 cr and expenditure is 442 cr.Means Co is already in loss from the starting point as raw material and other expenses has gone up over sales and then add Interest for debt which is 82  cr and add depreciation of 37 cr and Co ends up with a HUGE LOSS of 153 cr for just one quater , Sep 2011.....Wow.......Kya kehna hai......!
Achhi khasi nafe wali co thi, usko ghate wali bana diya................
I have no words to discribe such a bad decision taken by the management.As I said earlier , the entire aquisition was a bad decision.I maybe wrong in my view but as of now it looks it was a very bad decision.
Instead of trying to putting effort in research on Electric devision where they make BIKES which are battery operated  and making it more consumer oriented and spike up the sales of their YoBikes, they did the wrong thing, that is what I am feeling and let me write that when I read about the acquisition of Hans Ispat and Hans Paper, I was in doubt and if I remember , when someone asked me what I feel about Electrotherm Ltd I didn't give a BUY call to him/her.
If someone can remember in one of my recent post maybe a month or so back, I wrote that while looking at parametres one needs to keep track on stock and go to BSE site and see if there is any announcement there for the Stock you hold and if you find one open it and read it and if Co is diversifying in another business then analyse it whether the diversification will work or not.
And exactly same thing has happend with Electrotherm Ltd.

I would like to see what management has to say about the LOSSES and how they will manage it.I am awaiting Management interview on Electrotherm.If they have given any such interview after dismal LOSS in first 2 qrs I request readers to give the link ......

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Why don’t you know where the country is going, Mr Mukherjee?

Mahesh Vijapurkar Nov 26, 2011

This is an editor post from moneycontrol website:

A visibly upset Pranab Mukherjee, the senior most Congress politician had this to say soon after a citizen slapped Sharad Pawar in New Delhi on Thursday: “I don’t know where the country is going”. He had a scowl becoming his ire as he walked to his official car from his office.

I wish it were as simple as that.

It is hard to believe that it was merely rhetorical. It is equally hard to believe that being in the perch he is on, next only to Manmohan Singh but swinging more clout than anyone else, a notch below on the establishment ladder, he does not know where this country is going.

Take your head out of the sand, Pranab-da. PTI

It seems Mukherjee and his peers, down to the gram panchayat politics are hiding their head, ostrich-like, in the sand.
The common man, as represented by 27-year-old Harvinder Singh, seems to know where the country is heading. That slap was apparently, not personal, because Harvinder Singh and Sharad Pawar did not even know each other. It was symbolic of the outrage of the helpless man on the street. At that time, to Singh, Pawar was emblematic of the political class.

The country, the common knows, has gone to scamsters, to politicians who use democracy as a veil to perpetuate their misdeeds which ranges from building family empires, buying up constituencies, strengthening their own money-making apparatus often passed off as legitimate businesses, to a subversion of democracy where the common man is allowed no role except to periodically cast a vote.
But Mukherjee and his tribe have refused to heed the signals which have been emanating from the streets for about past six months.
There is a marked tendency, Mukherjee ought to know, that people have begun to doubt the value of a vote if it only leads to the kind of grasping political class to which ideology is a ruse, to which the laws are only a pretence, to which the next goal is another re-election to ensure its perpetuity. Sadly, democracy as practiced is driving people away from their earlier faith in it.

That slap repeatedly played out mercilessly on the 24×7 news networks is perhaps a big notice to the establishment that things have come to a pass where people have had enough. To use part of Kiran Bedi’s tweeted response, it was all to do with the ‘pent up anger’ which has to find a vent somewhere.

Note the pattern. Suresh Kalmadi was the object of an attack on his way to the courts; he has been accused of embezzlement of public funds for personal gain. Sukh Ram was attacked because, this is my guess, it took years before justice caught up with him; it could have been impatience at the delay in punishing the man. Who knows, there are a lot many slaps unadministered yet and people may get temped to neutralise that backlog. It is best they are not offered that opportunity.

Of course, a democracy does not have room for such assaults, for taking law into one’s own hands, to be violent when there are means of redress – a parliamentary system, a judiciary, an executive, a fourth estate. But what of them? The Parliament is hostage to the tendency of scoring political points, not making judicious laws; the judiciary is a slothful entity where justice is not easily found, the executive is compromised – you can’t expect a policeman not to ask a bribe – and, the media, severely compromised with its penchant for trivia and paid news.

What recourse does the common man then have? With elections far away in 2014, with the country brimming with big-ticket corruption cases, with inflation on fire because the common man believes it is all to do with poor or no governance, the streets are an inviting theatre for all action. The Arab Spring has not been a mean contributor to the Indian Citizen beginning to think that there is a way out, after all.

Pranab Mukherjee, in his de rigueur winter wear bandh gala, a signature of Delhi politicians was wrong on one point. Harvinder Singh’s slap on Pawar’s left cheek did not deserve any publicity, he said, in utter contempt of the action. But publicity is what it would get because the media wittingly or unwittingly hyperventilates on behalf of the people because the latter like it. Because they like it, the TRP’s go up.

Yes, Anna Hazare is not exactly a reticent man and is not given to discretion and has a past of having used strong methods to get people to reform and characteristically, despite the Gandhian halo woven around him – part self-proclaimed, part ascribed – could not resist that ‘One slap?’ reaction. He has an animus against Sharad Pawar but walk the Facebook Diaspora and you’d find utter justification for the slap.

One went to the extent of wanting to covert November 24, the Thanksgiving Day in the US into India’s Slapping Day and one does not need much imagination to guess who he had in mind as objects: the politicians who brought the country to this pass.

The least Mr Mukherjee can do is retain his scowl and help redeem his community of politicians of this stigma of the most unwanted call in this country at this point of time. It would, of course, be harder to reform his tribe than ask the people to change.

Which means, while politicians and others rush to rightly commiserate with Pawar and condemn the slap, few, if any, have said they understood why it happened.

My Comments:
How many liked the slap given by Harvindersingh to Sharah Pawar?I can say majority liked it......and when I say majority it is not 51% liked and 49% didn't like is I can say 95% liked it and 5% didn't like it.....I left those 5% for human rights and chivalrous minded people who wants to show that they believe in democracy and it should not happen.These are pseduo secular people who lives in a big house and have all types of luxury in life.They are good for nothing .
As editor rightly wrote, Harvinder and Pawar do not know each other personally and hence it is a slap on politicians of India.
Commom man has nothing left to do then what Harvinder has done.I bet if given chance these politcians can get more slap from every Indian Citizen.
If inflation is going up why Sharad Pawar is still there as the Agricultural Minister?Why can't he talk with experts how India can grow more grains and thus contain the inflation.Why government is doing nothing on that front?
I know here also many would like to come out and comments why talk of only Sharad Pawar and not others......these are all good in arguing and makes no sense.....poor is getting life living hard.......
Politicians has lost all morality.As editor wrote in one para , since last 6 months polticians has behaved like no one needs to speak anything and let corruption go on and on.I know we have arguemnets that overseas is also like that.....otherwise there cannot be 2008 or PIIGS default but why look at them?If we are good then them ,our economy should be wheathering the global calamity and have growed at over 8% even in this time.......Justification is no answer for what is happening in India......If our politicians were good we still would have wheathered the global turmoils and have come out winner.Change our way of looking things.The perspective to look the situation needs to get changed.Try to break the jinx of thinking.That's all I would say here ....talking of west bad debts etc takes us nowhere.We need to know what we need to do.....

Blood is boiling in common man and Congress keeps on talking of parliamentary procedure and so on and so forth.
Beware Congress next election you are going to lose very badly.I don't say other parties are good like BJP, NDA the left front but let there be another government.It is time for a change at Parliament......

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Allied Digital Services' CMD receives APEA 2011 Outstanding Entrepreneurship Award

Capital Market / 11:38 , Nov 26, 2011

Allied Digital Services has announced that the company's chairman & managing director, Nitin Shah was awarded the 'Outstanding Entrepreneurship Award' by enterprise Asia at the Asia Pacific Entrepreneurship Awards 2011 (APEA) India.

Considered as Asia's most prestigious awards for Entrepreneurs, the APEA awards aim to recognize leading entrepreneurs across the region to spur greater innovation, fair practices and growth in entrepreneurship. Enterprise Asia is a non-governmental organization promoting the development of entrepreneurship across the region. The awards aim to connect successful entrepreneurs and business leaders across the region to strengthen regional ties and growth in entrepreneurship, encouraging fair practices and greater innovation

My Comments:
I am glad to read this news as I recomended this stock here and was in some type of scam and was given a sell call by some analyst.
If the Co is a crook then there can't be any award waiting for the CMD.I am sure Sanjana would love to read this.......

Nifty made 2 year low......

For the first time recently there were trades of 4000 Nifty PUTS.High of PUT Options was 15.50 and low 10.70 and closed 13.70.
So is this a move to trap bears or opening of a new low for Nifty?In other words is this is a BEAR TRAP from BULLS or what?
I have explained in details how this game is played of F&O.How PUT Options and Call Options are written and who writes them and how they play it .
But there was buying seen in 4800 -5000 Nifty Call Options as well which says someone is taking a bullish stance as well and thus coming out against the Bear Camp who wants to see
I am observing this fight with great interest as both camps are coming against each other after 3-4 months as bears were having upper hand in that time.
I personally feel , news and circumstances still are not in favour of BULLS and will have to see how much long they can stand against bears before finally succumbing for the level 3900.
Maybe for a ST for say a month or two market can make a rally as it is in oversold zone but after that it will all depends on the EU financial crisis, and how our politicians will handle the Inflation, reforms,weakening rupee etc.......
With FDI in retial I feel is a good move as with more FDI coming in this sector will also tone up the real Esatate sector for offices and it will also stop rupee depreciating more now as with more FDI coming for investment there will be demand for rupee which will take rupee back below 50.......

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Indian food market to treble to $900-bn by 2020: Report

The domestic food market is likely to triple to USD 900 billion by 2020 from the current USD 300 billion, according to an industry report.
"Accounting for 16% of the world population and 12 percent of the world food production, India is one of the largest producers and consumers of food in the world. Indians spend around 35 percent of their total spend on food - USD 300 billion annually that will grow to about USD 900 billion by 2020," a Boston Consulting Group report 'India Food Processing: Mission 2020' said.
However, the report adds food processing levels are substantially lower than most emerging and developed economies with only six percent of the agricultural produce in the country being properly processed. Of the total food consumed today (USD 300 billion), 20% is processed and it is expected to increase to 35 percent (of USD 900 billion) by 2020.
"Food processing system needs to be remodelled. We have to figure a way to invest more in people and capacity among other things," BCG India principal Nimisha Jain said. "Food processing is important as it helps to extend shelf life and reduces wastage, thereby increasing food supply," Danone Director Eric Soubeiran said.
The domestic food processing industry is likely to invest Rs 14,000 crore in the next two years, according to Ficci. Most of the investment is likely to come from the existing companies.
"It is difficult to estimate what will be the investment cost but company wise, Danone is setting up manufacturing unit, Britannia is going towards north-east, we at Nestle are doubling all our capacities. So there is tremendous interest in investing," Nestle chairman and MD and Ficci food processing committee chairman Antonio Helio Waszyk said.
The report also found that last year there was a shift from pulses to poultry, and this year it is towards fruits and vegetables. Fruits and vegetables today account for 25 percent of the food consumed and by 2020 it is likely to be 40% of the food consumed.

My Comments:
And some of the pick in this sectors are:
1) Heritage Food
2) Vadilal Ind
3) ADF Foods Ltd
4)Flex Foods
5)Tasty Bites
etc.......I would like to write here that Flex Foods has doubled the bottomline this qr then last year and even the half year NP is equal to last whole year.I have recomended Flex Food way back here at my blog around 17 and in this market Flex Food is exhibiting excellent strength and is around 27.Refer my back post on Flex Food for more information......
I also like Heritage Food as well. They need to work on the margin and debt.With a 1000 cr sales , and 190 cr Mcap Heritage Food offer value according to me.......
Vadilal Ind has been my very very old call from MMB days and after that we saw RJ taking stake in it.They have coldstorages in various part of India which I feel have a good rental income which will add in the bottomline and along with their branded name of "Vadilal Icecream" Vadilal Ind too looks good to me.
ADF formally known as American Dryfruits Foods Ltd is a very wellknown brand for dryfruits etc and the stock is going cheap according to me.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

"The Luck Factor" by Max Gunther.....

I have been reading this famous book 3-4 months back and I completed it.
It is a wonderful book to read wherein the Author interviews and met many lucky people and learned about their habits and how they deal and what they do and why they become lucky.
In that he writes about a stock market , a retired stockbroker named C C Hazard.He says he is comfortably rich and people ask him how they too can beat the market.
He refers them his book " Confession of a Wall Street Insider".
One of his major theme is that ordinary small-time plungers-you-and I , that is-cannot gain much by subscribing to advisory services, studying market statistics,drawing charts, listening to economics forecast from Washington,or applying logic in any other fashion.
Hazard holds that the market is an engine of emotion rather then reason, and therefore its movement cannot be predicted by rational means.
How can they be predicted?Sometimes, says Hazard , by hunching."It took me a long time to learn to trust my hunches," he once told me." When I first hit the street in the 1950's I did all that ratioanl stuff - studies the GNP and all that- but I was no righther than if I'd guided myself tosing a coin.Time and again I'd myself going against hunch and ending sorry.All the big pundits would be saying the market going up, and they'd have all kinds of neat logical reasons for saying it, and I'd bet with them even though I had a hunch they were wrong.They would trun out wrong- not always, but enough times to make me start wondering.I finally told myself, "What the hell, if these rational technique are no better than tossing a colin, hunches couuldn't be any worse."
On hunches also Max Ginther writes excellently.
There are rules when to believe in the hunches.He says," Never Confuse a Hunch with a Hope"...If hunch tells you something is true , and if you badly want it to be true, regard the hunch with suspicion.( This is true in all aspect of life)
" A lot of bad hunches are just strong wishes in disguise" says Dr Natalie Shainess.
When you want something a great deal, it is very easy to talk yourself into believing it will happen.
A gambler will tell me , I've got a hunch I'll clean up at the track next week", I ask why he thinks so.He says " Well, I've been losing so long that my luck's got to turn.I can feel it coming." There's no reason arguing with that man.The WISH is the mother of the HUNCH.He goes out to the track, bets the long shots and loses everything he has.

Make Room for Hunches to Grow:
Hunches are made of facts, but they come as feelings.According to Dr. Eugene Gendline, Many people or most are not really in touch with their own feelings.This undoubtedly is a reason why many men and women, perhaps the majority , lack well-developed hunching talent.
Well, it is here where in I read that sell any stocks at 15% loss which Mr Hazard said to Max Gunther in his interview .When stocks goes down by 15% he says it is in downtrend and after observing market for years I also came to the conclusion that in most cases , what he is saying is true and hence I wrote it couple of times here that sell stocks you bought if it goes down by 15% to 20% and you will be most probably right.
I will be reading his book which he use to recomend to people, "Confession of a Wall Street Insider" from C C Hazard.I have just orderd at Amazon and soon be with me.When I read the review , they were just great.

One review says:

 "C .C. Hazard was a pseudonym for a well known stock broker of the time. He didn't really want to go totally public with his story for fear it would alienate too many people, and make trouble for many more, but he was determined to get his story down in print.

His main theme was that he knew from a lifetime in the business that the game of stock investing was not really what the public thinks it is. There is also an underlying reality in the book that portrays those working in the brokerage businesses as the crooks and scoundrels that they were then, and still are now.
Also, he tears apart all of the methods used at the time, including fundamental analysis, technical analysis, the charting, and a few others. As he learned over the years, the only reliable information was "insider" information. And not the corporate kind, but the exchange kind.
His main point was that you simply cannot reliably discern which direction a stock will go over time unless you actually know what the insiders know. The public is not part of that knowledge and therefore must protect themselves from being fleeced.

In the final analysis he tells us to use whatever method we want to pick stocks (since no one method is any good anyway) and to pick stocks that have moved up 10% from a local bottom, and buy it. Then if it continues to go up, fine, but if it goes down instead (some percent) sell it. He uses the example of the "ratchet" which turns in one direction but not in the other.

If you can get your hands on this book, by all means read it. "

This review was written on 2008, means 3 yrs back when world market went in tailspin .Just imagine  what the writer means when he writes like that.....

Friday, November 18, 2011

Market tanked today....

Market tanked by over 300 points and looks like we are going more downward.In that scenario I feel this time we may break 4700 support and drift to 3900 level.
That is scary and I know it brings shivers to small investors and all and sundry but that is what I am able to see.
Well,  with economic policy taking back seat,rupee depreciating , Oil going up, Int rate going up, Inflation still at high, European turmoils still there and FII's selling not abating , I feel we are going to see some more pain.
I am still unable to understand why rupee is depreciating and has touched 51 against dollar.Even in 2008 we didn't see rupee at 51 , even if we saw that was for short period but from the way rupee is depreciating I am seeing it will still drift down lower to maybe 54-55.Well, the reason can be high inflation in India, economic policy now on back burner , GDP growth rated down below 7.6% etc etc and that is taking toll on our market and it may happen that India can be also downgraded in a fortnight  due to lower GDP growth, inflation, higher int rate which is hindering the economic growth and non political will to go for economic reforms and in that case we can even see capitulation in our Indian Market.
When market tanks like this, it means market is knowing that something bad is coming and hence is doing that , means going down.And for me India downgrade can make our market more jittery.....
Unfortunately this time we have domestic problem along with global turmails.Our own growth is going down, inflation is up, government not able to make reforms and that is a bad sign for our market.IIP nos are not coming good, manufacturing is slowing down , how India will grow again at 9%?That is the biggest question coming to my mind.There is not a single political person who think of India.
Wait for the market to make a bottom.Let us see some positive news coming on horizen and then decide to buy something.
As I wrote in last post sell stocks at 15-20% down.If the stock is down by 15% it means it is in downtrend and will drift down more .This strategy needs to be followed in any type of market.Be it a Bull Market or Bear Market.

There is a very big fight going at Dalal Steert  between BULLS and BEARS.We all know who are BULLS and who are BEARS.For bulls they need some positive news.Positive clue and they will make a comeback . We have to see whether these fight ends like previous fight ending an era of a new bull , RJ like HM or KP or RJ makes a comeback with vengence and drove away the BEARS.As of now news are not favouring RJ and his stocks has been hammered badly in last 4 days.
Interesting fight is going on at Mumbai.The whole atmosphere become different and no one knows what one is trying to do to other.There is some anonimity in the air.Who is doing what and who will trap whom.
Whether 4700 is broken or not.That is RJ's support for Nifty and he said in one of the interview that market should not break 4700.Now Bears are hellbent to break that a fight.......when the talk comes to , I will prove you wrong, then no one knows what can happen as other will always try to find weakness of opposite camp.They will try each and everyway to corner each other .......let us wait and see who wins......

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Interview with CEO of India Glycols....

Below is the edited transcript of the interview. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: The bottom-line which in the second half last year saw phenomenal expansion and now you have surpassed the figure for last year. Is the second half seasonally stronger for you. What kind of guidance would you be giving for the second half going forward?
A: I do not see seasonality in our business; it is more of a function of the consistent improvement that is taking place because of change in our business strategy.
Our principal focus is more on supplying to large brand like Coca Cola etc on our business. These companies have launched bio-friendly packaging, we see secular volumes originating from these companies.
In that business we see significant growth in our natural plant product division. This is a steady improvement in our business and not seasonal.
Q: There has been a substantial increase in the EBITD margins of your chemicals business – on your overall basis it stands at 23% versus 6% any particular reason why you have seen such a sharp increase and can those margins increase further?
A: I would love to see them increase further.We hope to hold on to these margins since there is a possibility of raw material cost increase on the alcohol side. I am not sure that margins would increase, we should be quite happy if we to hold on to these margins.

Q: You have a very high debt on your hands and your debt equity almost looked four times. Any plans to scale this down and could you tell us what is the proportion of debt that you have overseas and domestic.
A: High leverages is a concern. In the first half itself we have repaid some amount of debt unfortunately because of the forex depreciation we have to revalue our assets liabilities.
Our total foreign currency burden would be about 40% of its total debt- if I were to exclude packing obtained in foreign currency for our exports.
If that number increases we are hedged but at the same time because of the steep depreciation we have to revalue.
Even though we repaid about Rs 100 crore of debt in first half the benefit of that got lost because of the revaluation.
Q: Will you repay more debt in the second half?
A: Yes.
Q: How much?
A: We expect to repay at least another Rs 100 crore.

Here is the link:

My Comments:
This is the latest interview from CEO of India Glycols after the results were annouced yesterday evening.
Above one can read which I have highlighted in RED bold letters that they have trimmed down the debt bt 100 cr in first half and they will again going to lower the debts by 100 cr in 2nd half which again coincides with what I wrote in last post about decreasing the debt by 50 cr every quater which I read somewhere.
That says that what I read and the figure I remembered were to the point correct.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Par Excellence Results posted by India Glycols Ltd....

India Glycols posted stupendous rresults late this evening.

The sales went up from 301 cr to 352 cr but the Net Proft soared from 13.90 cr last qr to 65.77 cr this qr.Due to exceptional item of 26.46 cr the NP has come to 28.18 with TAX taking out 11 cr.
The cash profit was 88 cr before Int outgo which was again as high as 23 cr .
So for consecutive 2 qrs India Glycols has posted an eps of 10 which brings half year eps to 20.
If the exceptional item of minus 26 would not have been deducted then the eps would have been 20 for Sep qr 2011.
This I am seeing even after not a big jump in sales which is around 20% up.

If there is any discrepency in my reading India Glycols results please let me know.....

I don't think I need to write about India Glycols what readers needs to do.

I am expecting gapup opening tommorow for India Glycols and may remain for a while in 20% circuit.The reason is , market has not discounted the good results that was coming as it has not moved up like we saw in HBL Power but if India Glycols can repeat this performance in rest of the 6 months , I feel India Glycols will have no looking back from nowonwards.
Actually India Glycols went down today in expectation that results should be bad as it was not declared before the market get closed.

I read the interview somewhere on internet on I think ET by MD that the debt which is as high as 1400 cr they had already started trimming it down every qr and if I remember correctly some 55 cr was already taken off and he said that for coming many qr they will keep decreasing debt atleast 55 cr every qr.

Another stock from my old call, Petron Eng which I recomended around 170 and went on to touch 489 has come down now at 294 , has shown excellent results and I feel it is worth a look as well......

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Excellent Results posted by HBL Power System Ltd....

I am very happy to see that HBL Power has posted excellent Sep qr results with Rs 11.61 cr as NP.
Sales went up by 20% and still the NP has gone up from 2.6 cr to 11.61 cr.This is even after there is an Int outgo of 21.87 cr compare to 11 cr last year.
After a long time Co is coming back ontrack and I was never in a doubt in my mind even once that HBL will not perform.I was confident from the day first time I recomended it.
I still feel HBL is a buy at this rate and on dips.
Here what we need to observe is, HBL made a low of 12 in Aug and from there it came to 18 , means gave 50% return.Market got the wind that HBL result was going to come good and hence already discounted it earlier.So it may happen that on Monday it can move up but not much and then even can come down as market already discounted the good results.
That is why I use to say, understand the market.How the stock is performing and what it is doing........

Another stock that has come out with excellent result is Geometric Ltd , my old call .From a loss in last sep Geometric has come in black while posting a NP of 29.89 cr, which gives and eps of 4.78 for Sep qr 2011.
Geometric is also going cheap at this rate and is a buy now and on dips.

I am awaiting the results of India Glycols on  Monday.

I still feel that Selan Exploration is looking good at this time and on dips.

I would like to revisit my old call Minda Ind which I have recomended in past and is looking excellent at this time wherein here also Minda has posted excellent results and is in manufacturing of  Gas kits for cars.

There is one stock which is showing excellent strength named Kewal Kiran even in down market.After making a low of 430 in Feb 2011 it is on upmove and now at 755.Kewal Kiran owns some excellent branded names in readymades which can be seen while going to its website..

Even Parekh Aluminum has come out with excellent returns and I feel it is looking good too now .

After making a low of around 65 in Aug 2011, GNRL my old call , formally known as Lesha Energy, now GNRL, Gujarat Natural Resources Ltd has come back to 116.This stock has defied the downtrend of the market and has almost doubled from the recent low.

There is one more branded name in glassware named La Opala RG.I like this stock.With standard of living going high I feel La Opala RG stands to benifit from spending on consumer front.....

Friends, patience is thy name of market.If you have no patience then you don't need to be in the market.My calls , almost all times takes time to deliver.The reason is, I identify them very early before market take note of it and hence the delay but when they run , it is seen by everyone here.

I again write here, find stocks which have given great results in this global slow down.If these stocks can give great results now, they are bound to give better results when global turmoils will end......

Sunday, November 6, 2011

My bad calls.........

I would like to throw some light on  my bad calls today.
I have given many bad calls like Allied Digital, Rathi Steel,Ennore Coke, Nutek India, etc etc
Let me discussed it.
Remember first thing.Always try to find things on your own.Don't follow someone blindly.Mistakes are bound to happen.We are all human being.
Second, in stock market be always on toes.
Always look out for Promoters selling,Eq expansion,sales, NP and diversification of Co.
These are ares where one needs to be very very agile.
1)Promoters selling is a very very big negative for any stock.So every quater go to bse site and look whether promoters stake has decreased or not.Any selling over 1-2% in promoters holding says something is wrong .......try to find out why that is happening.

2)Eq expanasion is a second very big thing one needs to lookout for.Whatever stocks you hold, click on all annoucement on bse everyday to see if there is any annoucement from the stock you are holding and if you find one click on that and read what is written there.If Co is dilutiing eq then become agile.If the sales is not good and if eq dilution is taking place then you need to sell such stocks India.

3)Always look for sales qr to qr and year to year.If sales remains stagnant and profit remains stagnant it is OK but sales going down and hence NP also going down then ALARM BELL   needs to ring in your EARS.As soon as sales is down we need to understand that something is wrong here.Start selling that stock unless you see some reason why that happened and you are confident that sales will be back to normal.

4)If bottomline is going down then again that is a khatare ki ghanti.Why the NP went down?That is the first question one needs to ask yourself.If raw materail price has gone up then it means that Co is not able to passon the cost to consumers.That is a bad productline.

5)Alawys be on alert for any diversification in business of any Co.See what they are trying to do.If you feel that Co will not be able to maintain the new business it is time to sell the stock.

See friends,stock market is not for those who wants to buy and sit on it.Ofcourse one can do that but then one needs to buy stocks which are already bluechip like Siemens, L&T, BHEL, ABB, Areva, Thermax, Bharat Forge etc etc where the business has already been established.These Cos already have big name and hence they have no problem in selling their produict.
But for Midcaps and Smallcaps one needs to be on constant vigil.
It is not possible for me to keep writing things for each and every calls I made here that this Co is not doing good or the sector has gone out of favour etc.
So please keep track on what you possess and take decision immidiately.Don't wait for anyone.
The best thing to me to do is, sell stock which you bought goes down by 15-20% immidiately even if it is in a LOSS.Because once stock goes down by 15-20% then there needs to be real bad news coming up otherwise market(read operators) are very smart not to sell such stocks.
Once stock goes down by 15-20% then that is a downtrend and it becomes very hard to come back.So sell as soon as stock goes down by 15-20% and if feel that stock is good ,buy lateron.
The downtrend can be of various type.The momentum is broken and the momentum gets broken for a perticular stock even when there is bull market.The overall sentiment is not good of the market and hence stocks are going down.
Most probably, when a stock goes down by 15-20% then it is time to sell even if it is a LOSS.It may happen that some stocks may deceive you and come back again but they are RARE.Most probably if you sell stock on 15-20% down from your buying price you are going to be right.
Again I reiterate, this is my view and I maybe wrong.Take your own call.