Monday, May 31, 2010

Things are not as bad as they seem

The author, chairman of Thunderstorm Capital in Boston, is a Bloomberg columnist


The US stock market reels. Europe cringes at the prospect of serial defaults by Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. A computer glitch triggers anear-crash on stock exchanges. Rules for financial firms in the US are being overhauled. North Korea and South Korea rattle sabers.
No wonder investors’ stomachs are jumpy. Yet, in my opinion, things are not as bad as they seem.
The stock market correction that began on April 23 in the US has carried the Standard & Poor’s Stock Index down more than 10 per cent. A decline of 10 per cent or more occurs, on average, once every 11 months. Let’s examine the anatomy of this correction, looking for indications of its severity, duration and nature.
This is an international market dive. Since April 23, benchmark indexes have fallen about 11 per cent in the UK and France on a total return basis. Germany has held up slightly better, down about 7 per cent.
As I see it, Greece’s problems are more of a morning-after hangover from the worldwide recession than a harbinger of new ills. The index of leading indicators in the euro region rose every month from March 2009 through March 2010.
More pep So, it’s likely that the economies of most European countries will soon start showing more pep. Meanwhile, the recovery in the US seems to be accelerating. Corporations are reporting higher earnings, gross domestic product has risen three quarters in a row, and the leading indicators point to more improvement ahead.
Iexpect the US unemployment rate, 9.9 per cent as of April, will start declining soon —to less than nine per cent by the fall.
The sudden stock crash of May 6, in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 1,000 points in minutes, only to make up most of the ground before the day’s end, was unsettling. Bear in mind, however, that a 1,000-point decline in the Dow today represents a loss of about 10 per cent. When the index dropped by 508 points on October 19, 1987 – now known as Black Monday –it was a loss of more than 22 per cent. I am no more adept at predicting the stock market than many other people. To mangle an old song from a James Bond movie, “Nobody does it better, but nobody does it very well.”
Prediction For what it’s worth, here is my prediction: I think the current correction has almost run its course and will end within aweek in the US and within amonth in Europe. My guess is that the S&P 500, which started this year at 1,115, will end 2010 ahead by 10-15 per cent. That would put the index at about 1,226 to 1,282.


After giving the list I came through this article in BS and hence posting it here which coincides with my calls I gave in below post like Siemens, ABB, Areva, Alsthom etc....

Future of companies into transmission & distribution looks promising in light of huge investments
India’s largest player in the transmission and distribution (T&D) sector, Power Grid Corporation (PGCIL), has plans to spend Rs 1,00,000 crore over the next seven years, doubling its network to 1,57,000 km as compared to 77,000 km currently. Companies catering to the needs of the T&D segment can expect new orders being awarded by PGCIL as new investments gather traction and compensate for the delays in projects seen during 2009.
For every rupee invested in setting up new power generation capacity, an equal investment is required in the T&D space to ensure that the power generated reaches the end consumer. India has an ambitious plan to build about 62,000 Mw of new power generation capacity by 2012 and another 1,00,000 Mw by 2017, which could require investments of at least Rs 8,00,000 crore.
Even at a ratio of 60-65 per cent, this will require another Rs 5,00,000 crore of investments in India’s already under-invested T&D sector. No wonder the sector is expected to grow over 20 per cent annually during the next five years. “T&D is a very attractive space within the power sector. The country currently has a transmission capacity of 20,000 Mw (in 2009), which will be further augmented to 37,150 Mw by 2012. This is achievable and will attract about Rs 1,20,000 crore to Rs 1,30,000 crore of investments in transmission alone by 2013-14,” says Sudhir Nair, head of Crisil Research.
In the context of this emerging opportunity, which are the companies that stand to gain?

Transmission opportunity
Power Grid itself will be a key beneficiary of investments in the T&D sector. For the Eleventh Five Year plan, PGCIL has targeted an investment of Rs 55,000 crore, including expansion of inter-regional grid capacity to 37,000 Mw, as compared to 14,000 Mw in the Tenth Five Year plan. Once the infrastructure is built, the company will get regulated returns and consistent cash flows by transmitting power on its network. Thus, it is considered to be agood long-term play.
But, before that, higher capex (capital expenditure) will also mean benefits accruing to companies like KEC International ,
Kalpataru Power and Transmission and Jyoti Structures ,which undertake engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work for T&D projects. Here, Jyoti Structures will be a key beneficiary, followed by Kalpataru Power, which are well diversified and have good revenue visibility. On the other hand, KEC will also benefit as it generates about half of its revenue from the domestic market. Further gains would accrue, depending on the pace of recovery in international markets. Apart from the potential to bag orders from PGCIL, these companies will also benefit from the projects announced by the state electricity boards, other government agencies and private power generation companies, which is in fact an emerging opportunity.

High-capacity corridors
Power Grid also plans to develop nine high-capacity transmission corridors, which will evacuate power from independent power projects (IPPs). These projects will require an investment of about Rs 64,000 crore over the next few years. Apart from EPC players, companies like Crompton Greaves ,ABB ,Siemens and Areva T&D ,which manufacture high-capacity equipment, stand to benefit.

Gains in distribution
Besides transmission equipment, the above four companies will also benefit on account of increase in demand for distribution equipment like transformers, switch gears, capacitors and power substations. Investments in the distribution segment are expected to grow at a faster pace of 35-40 per cent over the next two-three years. While Crompton Greaves, the largest player in the domestic transformer space, stands to gain, analysts remain cautious over its large exposure (revenues) to European markets.
Among second-tier companies,
EMCO and Voltamp Transformers should benefit. Apar Industries is another company that holds good prospects, given its presence in transformer oil, wherein the opportunity is considered to be large.
On the other hand, ICSA ’s earnings are expected to grow at about 30 per cent annually over the next two years. The company erects substations and transmission lines as well as embedded solutions (electronic meters, etc), which helps power companies to minimise and monitor distribution and commercial losses.

In this time of Uncertainty......

We are having ominous news regarding PIGS countries.........LOL..........that doesn't mean  PIGS are ample there..but they are ...Portugal,Ireland,Greece and Spain....the debt crisis there is taking tall and market is exhibiting seasaw movement since last one month.Usually also there is a saying in USA that sell everything in May and come back in Oct.That also means that uptill Oct market will remain range bound after whatever happens in May.
So according to that we are almost out of the woods as May is ending near, just one day left.
Now we can see consolidation period and market here in India can also remain rangebound for 2-3 months but specific stock will outperform in this period as well and we do not know which will outperform.
But what I am writing here today is on Blue Chip stocks, A gr stocks where valuation may come down with the whims of players ,creating  panic and that would be the best time to accumalate them.
Let me list some stocks where one can think of buying in DIPS......
1) Siemens
3) Ril Ind
5)United Phosphorous
6)Areva T&D
8)M&M( After taking majority stake in Reva-electric car maker, looks excellent)
9)Sterlite Ind
11)Tata Power
12)Tata Chem
13)Alsthom Project
15)India Bulls Realty(Laxmi Mittal has taken stake)
16)Neyvile  Lignite
17)Sesa Goa
21)Essar Oil
22)Century Tex

These are some A gr stocks which investor need to buy on any dips.....
Some other stocks out of Agr which looks excellent are
1)Jindal Drilling
2)Selan Explo
3)KLG Systel Ltd
4)JPT Sec
5)KLG Capital Ltd
6)Emmson Int
7)Ennore Coke
8)Sahyadri Ind
9)Patel Airtemp
10)Dolphin Offshore
Barring couple of stocks of both list I have been recomending these stocks time and again ever since 2009 Jan/ readers are not unknown to them......
May have still missed some of them...difficult to recall and write it down here...
Tata Motors which was written off by many analyst , rather all, when Ratan Tata tookover Jaguar and LandRover, as being a bad deal ,has come out with stunning numbers....Rs 2516 cr as net profit! and so was the case for Tisco when they tookover Corus Steel a giant Co from UK and all discussion was on that the deal is costly and Tisco will be done under the debt burden and see how Tisco is faring on the brouses.....

Friday, May 28, 2010

Mobius buys BRIC stocks, sees bull rally continuing .............

Mahmoud Kassem CAIRO
TEMPLETON Asset Management’s Mark Mobius said he’s been buying stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China in the past month and called the slump in emerging-economy shares a “correction” in a bull market.
“Despite the fact that a lot of people think that we are entering into a bear market, we don’t believe so,” Mobius, who oversees about $34 billion in emerging markets as Templeton Asset Management’s Singapore-based executive chairman, said in an interview yesterday in Cairo. “This is a correction in an ongoing bull market.”
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has dropped 15% from an April 15 high on concern China’s steps to slow inflation and European nations’ struggle to finance their deficits will derail a global economic recovery. The measure has climbed 96% from a four-year low in October 2008 and gained 3.2% on Wednesday, rebounding from the steepest drop since March 2009, on speculation valuations are attractive. “When the time comes, emerging markets will recover faster and in a big way,” Mobius said. “We’ve been buying because we have had net flows into our funds. And most of the buying has been in the BRIC countries.”
Templeton has also been buying equities in other nations, including Dubai and Egypt, he said. The firm hasn’t reduced holdings in South Korea because the companies it owns were “relatively inexpensive” when it purchased them and may benefit from international sales should South Korea’s economic rebound stall, Mobius said.

My Comments:
Now isn't that coinciding with my view that those who will remain in CASH will remain in CASH forever?What more one wants from this blog?
My views matching with non other then Mark Mobious...Now readers need to decide what they needs to do.....
 I know it is confusing when investors see many types of views...and not able to decide what to do.....but I have been writing here since long that we will be doing good.......and I have time and again given reasons for I hope there should be no confusion with my readers........Our path is clear, our goal is clear and what we need to do is also clear...... on dips....

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Mega Soft...cmp..Rs 23.50......tapping on HUGE USA...

Megasoft Ltd sniffs opportunity as US moves to prepaid

KV Ramana / DNATuesday, May 25, 2010 4:37 IST
  Hyderabad: Megasoft Ltd, the Hyderabad-based telecom technology company, is eyeing a major opportunity in the prepaid segment in the US mobile telephony market.

The company, which supplies several products to clients in US, Latin America and India, sees a major churn in the US market with operators there focusing on the prepaid segment.

“The market in the US is changing particularly in the backdrop of the recent recession. The focus there is shifting towards the prepaid model. So far prepaid constituted about 10% of the US market as against about 70-80% in markets such as India. The change is going to help us get more revenues from that country,” GV Kumar, Megasoft’s CEO, told DNA.
According to Kumar, Sprint, one of its leading customers, has already started offering prepaid brands to its customers in the US.
“We have about 20 customers in the US looking at the new business model,” he said.
Megasoft offers prepaid management platforms to its telecom clients in addition to mobile commerce platform and roaming products, etc. The prepaid platform contributes about 60% to its
revenues while the mobile commerce products bring in 15-20% and roaming products about 8%.
“The mobile prepaid products are going to increase their contribution. We are sure that the revenue-mix by geography too would change with India contributing significant revenues following the entry of 3G operators. The onset of 3G will bring to fore content management services.
Mobile advertising, commerce and other services taking advantage of the higher bandwidth will change the market in India shortly and we see a major opportunity in it,” Kumar said.
For the first quarter-ended March 31, 2010, the company posted revenues of Rs 39.26 crore as against Rs 75.22 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.
The company’s net profit for the quarter rose to Rs 4.17 crore as against Rs 12 lakh a year ago.
“Though our topline has taken a beating due to the restructuring we did in 2009, the bottomline has significantly improved. This indicates a clear trend for the company and we are hopeful of maintaining the margins,” he said.

My Comments:
I know very well that Sprint is a very big Co in USA...they even tookover some Co..and being  as Sprint customers speaks about Mega Soft products......Mega Soft is upcoming Co and with excellent growth.......and at 23 looks a value BUY....according to me....

Monday, May 24, 2010

Podddar Pigments....making new highs....

This is an update for Poddar Pigments that it made a new high on 20th may at 47.25 and now at 44.00....which I recomended at 36 on 24 th Nov.....the journey has just started as I wrote in that post that Promoters were constant buyer at that time.....
I am not surpirsed to see that Np for Mar qr has gone up from 1.31 cr to 7.92 cr , which is whopping 550% increase....from last the eps for Mar qr ends at 6.76 and with buyback taking place the eq has lessened hence eps is more.....
So for the full year Mar '10 ,eps for Poddar Pigments now rest at around 13 ....and stock going at 3.5 p/e......looks still a good this I leave it to my readers....
 When market is tanking these recomendations of mine goes up or will remain steady and readers have not to lose much on it.....what else one need....
Like say, if someone has bought Poddar Pigments at that time, maybe it didn't move from Nov but as of now, who ever is holding is in PROFIT.....that is the beauty of .........(Fill In The Blank)...
I donno how many must have bought it.....but when I give a call, it looks like not a good call but ultimately it comes good.....

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Global economy can handle Europe strains: Geithner

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said a strengthened global economy was now in better shape to handle the strains emanating from Europe’s crisis, China’s Xinhua news agency reported on Saturday.
“You see some of the challenges in Europe now. But I think we are in a much stronger position to manage those challenges,” he told Xinhua in an interview in Washington before heading to Beijing for high-level economic discussions.
Geithner also said the dollar was on the rise because confidence was growing about the strength of the US recovery.
The US Treasury chief was due to arrive in Beijing on Sunday for meetings of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, cochairing the US side with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The economic component of the Monday and Tuesday talks are expected to explore ways to better balance the two countries’ $400-billion trade ties, steering clear of an open clash about the yuan’s peg to the dollar.
The United States still has the world’s largest economy and China has the fastest-growing one, so Geithner said cooperation between the two was vital for healthy global growth.
“China and the United States are doing what we need to do to help contribute to a broader global economic recovery,” he said. The US administration was going to tackle the deficit situation very seriously, Geithner told Xinhua. As he tries to reinvigorate the US economy, President Barack Obama has set a goal of doubling exports in five years, which can be met only with a big increase in sales to China.
Geithner said both the US and Chinese economies have undergone a major transformation in recent years and struck atheme that he is expected to pursue by praising rising levels of domestic consumption in China. The Obama administration has been urging China to rely less on exports, and more on increased consumer spending at home, to fuel its economic growth. Geithner also noted the US economy’s expansion now was being led by investment and exports, rather than consumer spending, and that savings were rising.
Europe concern
Europe’s debt crisis has become an issue of concern, partly for fear that it might spread to other regions but also because it means a diminished market for exports from countries such as China.
That has led to speculation that Beijing will be less likely to let its yuan currency rise in value, as the Obama administration was urging, since the euro’s decline has made Chinese products more expensive in its top export market.
A $1-trillion safety net, provided by EU nations and the International Monetary Fund to stabilise the euro zone — following a rescue of debt-ridden Greece — has not stopped the bloc’s currency tumbling.
Several euro zone governments have followed Athens in announcing or planning austerity measures to shore up their credit ratings and avoid having to seek a Greek-style bailout.
But doubts remain about their ability to push through savage spending cuts in the teeth of public opposition.
Geithner added last-minute stops in Britain and Germany to his itinerary when the S&ED talks wrap up on Tuesday to discuss conditions with his counterparts in London and Berlin and with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet in Frankfurt.
“You see some of the challenges in Europe now. But I think we are in a much stronger position to manage those challenges,” said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

My Comments:
What we have to make out from this is anybody's GUESS...........All I can comment here is those who will sell and remain in CASH may repent later...or have to getin at higher rate.....
This is my view and I may prove wrong...

An Oppertunity going abegging?

I am not an analyst nor a merchant banker nor a broker who can decide what can happen if something pops up like this on the horizen.....
Well-Yes, I am talking of the news that came out on Friday that Piramal Health Care is sold to Abott at whopping $3.7 bn and that is Rs.16,650 cr.....and Abott is paying Rs 785 /share when the price is Rs 500, here at our browses....
So Piramal Health Care is going 50% cheaper then what Abott paid it can be derived that sooner or later Piramal can acheive price of 785!
This is the 2nd biggest deal after Diaiichi and Ranbaxy......where $4.2 bn was doled out.....
Now Piramal Gr is cash rich by 16,500 cr......

Now this has opend new vistas for Indian Bulk and generic drug Pharma Co and who knows tommorow can be the turn of Venus Remedies or Transgene Bio?

"According to Ranjit Kapadia, the Abbott-Piramal and Daiichi-Ranbaxy deals will increase the significance of Indian assets in the future. He told VCCircle, "The Abbott-Piramal deal will have a huge impact over Indian asset class, especially, in pharmaceutical space. The global pharma majors, whose R&D pipeline getting dried, are keen on the generic (copycat) markets such as India. Obviously, whoever wants to strengthen Indian presence through buyouts, will have to shell out much more due to the higher demand for Indian assets." Those who are reluctant to sell the promoter stakle will start reconsidering expecting such higher valuation," he added."

Friday, May 21, 2010

Petron Eng....

I gave a call on Perton Eng on 17th Sep09..@rs 169.. and in 6-7 months it made a new high of Rs 429....on 22nd Apr 2010.....i.e.153% return...

Here is what I wrote at that time:

Petron Eng and Construction Ltd....cmp...169.60.....A Star in making....


I have come out with another virgin stock named Petron Engineering Construction Ltd .

This co is having a Sales turn over of Rs 457 cr and Mcap is just 127 cr.Eps is just around 8 but still it went for 20% upper circuit and ended at 169!

I will not write more on Petron Eng as someone told me I use to write from the website and hence I would say that you all will look at the website and read it........

My job is to bring out stock undiscovered and that I have done........

India's Education Ind.....a $80 bn Plus Ind....

When I read today in ET , I was awed strucked.....I never imgained that education  sector can be as big as $80 bn , means Rs.3,60,000 cr sector if we convert it in rupees....
It means that there is ample scope for more players to get the pie......we have big players like Educom, Evveron, NIIT etc....and upcoming players like Edserve, which I also missed at 43 ....and I feel even at 200 it is looking excellent pick.....
But I have already mentioned in my recent post about First Object Technology which is in education space....and I remember that in one of my reply I mentioned about DMC Int.
Keep a watch on DMC Int , read all annoucement at bse on DMC Int and if found good one can have exposer there.....
Dow tanked today by over 300 points and hence we will also open with a big gap down.We may see more downside after that as well.But buy stocks which are fundamentally sound in staggered manner , buy more on dips........

Well, I may prove wrong on market direction and market may dip more then I expect and hence I leave it to my readers what they wants to do.........I have proved wrong in 2008 and I may again prove wrong in 2010.........I donno exactly what can be the consequences of European financial crisis..........where the world economies and market will react and how much time it will take to stabilze the market......
I will only write here , that I am staying I did in whole 2008 year......


PE players line up for a share of education pie

PE/VC Firms Pump In $140 M So Far This Year, 50% More Than In Entire ’09
Dibyajyoti Chatterjee MUMBAI.
EDUCATION has emerged one of the most profitable businesses in India, making private equity investors enroll in big numbers to the $80-billion plus industry, anywhere from pre-schools to B-schools.
Numbers crunched by education-focussed private equity fund, Kaizen Management Advisors, show that venture capitalists and private equity players have pumped in excess of $140 million so far this year, 50% more than what they invested in the whole of 2009, as their search for value investment opportunities takes many funds to the hotbed of Indian education.
“We feel the education sector offers tremendous growth potential and is poised for rapid growth in the next few years,” says Ramesh Venkat, chief executive of Reliance Equity Advisors, a private equity arm of Reliance Capital, which entered the segment a few months ago by investing about Rs 100 crore in Pathways World School, a primary and higher secondary school.
The total VC/PE investment in the sector is likely to be around $300 million this year, says Sandeep Aneja, MD of Kaizen Management Advisors. Dhanraj Bhagat, partner at research firm Grant Thornton, says investments in education sector will grow 40-50% every year. There are about 25 PE/VC players in the market actively looking for good deals, and around10 deals have been done in the past few months.
Last week US-based VC firm Foundation Capital made two back-to-back investments: Rs 31 crore in Tree House Education, a company that operates in the pre-school and K-12 category; and Rs 20 crore in Aspire Human Capital Management, a Gurgaon-based employability enhancing firm. “We are interested in investing in large markets which have scale,” says Ashu Garg, partner, Foundation Capital. “It is estimated that about 70 million young Indians suffer from employability skill mismatch,” he adds.
Lack of regulation in K-12, or kindergarten to class XII, segment and supplementary education has made education attractive for investors. Matrix Partners India, too has invested Rs 59 crore in Tree House in two tranches; Rs 50 crore in 2008 and Rs 9 crore this month. Rajesh Bhatia, chairman and managing director of Tree House Education, declined to reveal the stake of PE firms, but said the promoters have more than a 51% stake in the company.
Tree House runs 135 preschools across the country and has expanded in the K-12 segment in the past 18 months. It runs the schools under management contract. The pre-school segment is worth $2 billion but is growing at an annual rate of 40-45%, according to Rishi Navani, co-founder and managing director of Matrix Partners.
Matrix Partners last year invested Rs 100 crore in FIITJEE, a coaching institute focused on training for IIT entrance exam. The engineering coaching business market is worth Rs 10,000 crore, said Mr Navani. The education sector began heating up in 2005.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Some Updates.....Koffe Break @2.20

There were some stocks which went up even when market tanked by over 450 points.....some of them are Lesha Energy now Gujarat Natural Resource Ltd....closed 20% up in UC at 116.40....and those who were the early buyer in Lesha when I first recomended it here at 43...should have got shares of Lesha Ind at 1:2 ratio means 1 share for every 2 Lehsa energy held....and Lesha Ind a steel Co demerged from Lesha Energy will be listed on brouses in short the holders of Lesha Energy will be having shares of Lesha Ind FREE of cost.....
Another stock that went up was First Object Techno which I recently gave a call 28......
California Soft which I discussed here on Mar 30 @ rs 42.35 was also up in down market with UC of 10% at Rs 65.55 along with Windsor Machine......
Some other stock which remained in Green were Srei Infra, Sujana Towers,Vishnu Chem etc......

Koffee Break Ltd :
One of the reader was asking me about an animation stock I would like to recomend...I already wrote about Crest Animation in past.....but there is one dark horse .......
Koffee Break is 1 paidup and is around Rs 2.....but it is in very nascent stage...but in recent past they made an animation film named " My Friend Ganesha" which was a huge one can keep an eye on that and if find good then buy it......but this stock comes in high risk high gain (HRHG) category......It is a penny stock but they have successfully launched My Friend Ganesha and hence I am writng about it future will unfold ......we keep our finger crossed.....

Latest Updates:

Forget to mention that DHP India Ltd which I recomended on 3rd Mar 2010 @22.05 was also in UC at 36.55.....and it has come out with excellent Mar results......

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Greece Financial debacle..........

Today let me write about Greece Crisis and other countries that would join the bandwagon of financial Crisis....
I am seeing lots of discussion going on and on about where the market can go world over.
I have seen analyst proving wrong on certain hype and technicals.I don't say that Greece crisis will have no effect at all but the repurcurssion will be far far less then the US financial crisis.
What we saw in 2008 was because US consumption is 30% of the world GDP.Is Greece having that type of stake in world GDP?I don't think so....USA is the growth driver for the whole world and hence we saw the world market melting down in 2008.But here we can't compare it with other Euoropean countries that includes Greece, Spain,IreLand etc....
Now if currency Euro is going to get destabilze and going to crack down then it is obvious that Dollar will strengthen.If Pound Sterling is going to lose its value then it is Dollar's gain.And if Dollar gains then USA also gains in big way.And if US gains , and economy return back to normalcy then world buisness will again be booming......what else market wants.....

We all know that China is delibaretly keeping the Yuan undervalued and hence taking advantage of export  as China has fixed value for Yuan.China decide what will be the value of Yuan against all currencies and they have kept the value under their check and thus putting them in advantageous position in world trade.
Well,one day I was going through some writeups by some experts and they were saying that 60% of Chinese economy comes from construction and that is the reason that China can collapse any time this year....
But then what should be the base for any economy?Can any expert give me another other growth driver for an underdeveloped country?
If Infra, Construction is not going to the growth driver for India what can be the other sector which can put India in higher GDP path?
The reason Infra and Construction becomes the biggest growth driver is because if Infra and Construction is booming then all other sectors also join with it like Engineering, Auto,Steel, Cement,Power etc etc.....with Infra and contruction booming each and every sector comes in play......
So how a country growing on Contruction/Infra sector can collapse?Yes, there can be excess but that can be tamed and taken care of but that doesn't mean that country can collapase...
We are seeing what is happening to developed countries....The Growth is hindered....Why?Because the Infra and Construction sector is saturated and hence we are not seeing 8-9% GDP for USA , UK,France, Germany,Spain etc etc...........
When there is no construction  taking place in developed countries then the GDP will remain in range of 3% which is the GDP of USA and likes......
Well, India got some $17 bn in last year i.e. 2009 and these are FII inflow.These are Hedge Funds money as well as Long Term Pension funds money.Hedge Funds money are those which are known as fast money.Hedge fund money moves in fast and moves out fast.So it is obvious that with slightest panic sign Hedge Fund will start selling and we will have cascanding effect.
Thus I can say that we can see sensex at 15k or round about that ,maybe shed lower to 14500 but don't see market going to 12k level or below that.I am seeing lots of talk going on saying market will breach the 2008 level as well.......means 8k level and then, I think ,  that will be the END of market...whole world.....people are waiting for 8k and even below so that they can invest at the lowest price......and makes huge profit....
But anyone having experiance of stock market knows very very well, that market never moves on one keep on waiting for correction of his thought and he/she keeps on waiting for years and years...
I would only like to say here that no one can be expert in market....who thought that market will go up 100% in 1 year after the debacle of Subprime mortagage?But that happened.....
Well,I am optimist person by nature.I always think positive.Many of friends says that but you needs to be need to be able to analyse positive and negative and then decide.
Well, that is not possible.....atleast for me.What negative one should think and analyse?That world is under debt crisis and hence market can tank and so one must be in Cash more then invested?
Ok, let me take an example....a real life example......An Indian Actress Lisa Ray got a Incurable Cancer, called, Multiple myeloma , a rare form of Cancer that is incurable.......
But she came out winning from it....
These is the medical term of these type of Cancer....
"Multiple myeloma is a cancer of white blood cells that attacks and destroys bone and which more commonly afflicts people in their mid-60s. There is currently no known cure and treatment is focused on containment."

Now coming out winner from such type of cancer.....what should be the attitude?Trying to analyse that the cancer one has got is incurable and so he/she is going to die anyway?Remember , there is one great thing that GOD has kept in every human being and that is FAITH......that is a big big trigger for anyhuman being.....
I would like to see what if any of these experts who wants to see negative and positive and takes steps like that what will they do when they have such type of problem what Lisa Ray passed through.....acoording to that when they hear that what they have got is incurable, they will put the hands down before the death will come.......and for living , one needs to be optimist ......
I liked the way LisaRay fought with incurable Cancer and I wish her a very long life.......Congrats Lisa for fighting incurable Cancer and coming out winner....

I have given the link for what Lisa Ray has said and what she went is worth a read......
But the bottom line here is,The FAITH Lisa was having has recovered her from the most dreaded Cancer....
Now this is only posssible if someone is a die hard Optimist.......Hum kehta hai na.....Umed pe to Duniya kayam hai......
I know certain people will say, that what Lisa went through is different and when we talk about market is different....but I say, it is same......I see Warren Buffet as an Optimist.....he is bullish on US economy down the line 20 he is already 78 so after 20yrs he will be 98and hence very less chance he will still be alive at that age....God forbids,I wish him a very long life, but this is just an example......and even if he is alive at 98 how much he will be investing in market is another question.....
He is bullish on Indian Economy as well down the line 20yrs....I have posted his quote saying Indian people will have better life in next 20yrs....and that quote is coming from none other then 2nd richest person of the world.....
I know there are experts who find faults with Warren Buffet picks and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala picks......and feel that they have all right to do that....but has they ever thougt how many mistakes they have made and what is the ratio of their own mistakes and these biggie mistakes?
They find mistakes with WB or RJ but they never looks into their house....apne girehban main bhi Zanko....that is all I would tell to them....
Can there be any comparision between WB or RJ and those how find fault with their picks?No way...they are far far beyond their comparision.......I can say, even if RJ speaks against WB , it doesn't looks comparable....because RJ's wealth has been created most from 2003 onwards while WB is there since last 60 yrs....can anyone there in the horizen who has such a long stint in stock market and still compound the m oney the way WB has done?
But the thing one needs to remember is when RJ was a BEAR , in his early stage of his stock market life, he never made such wealth he is making after he turned a BULL.....Most of his Wealth has come after 2003 and after he turned bullish on our economy...........

Monday, May 17, 2010

A HUGE $30 bn oppertunity...means Rs 1,35,000 cr business..........

DEFENCE EQUIPMENT - Rise in outsourcing catalyses setting up of aerospace SEZs..

As global aerospace and defence firms step up outsourcing to India to meet local commitments and cut costs, the country will see at least eight special economic zones (SEZs) dedicated to aerospace come up over the next five years.

India received the largest number of foreign investments in aerospace research and de- velopment in 2000-08, audit firm PricewaterhouseCoopers said in an April report, without quantifying the amount. India also got the second highest number of investments in aero- space manufacturing, after Chi- na.
But the biggest growth yet for the country's aerospace sector is to come from the offset clause in India's defence pro- curement procedure. Foreign arms makers have to source from local vendors at least 30% of the value of contracts won from India's military on deals of Rs300 crore or more.
India is expected to spend $100 billion (around Rs4.5 tril- lion) on buying fighter planes and helicopters from foreign firms over the next decade.
About one-third of this will be spent on sourcing equipment from Indian firms.
In just the past 18 months, around $2 billion worth of off- set contracts have been award- ed to local firms. These will be executed over the next decade.
In addition to this, India's own growth in civil aviation and the government's efforts to modernize airports will fuel the need for repair and mainte- nance units and local develop- ment of aircraft.
Despite a booming market for military and passenger air- craft, India's aerospace indus- try is still nascent. So far, the country has to its credit only a home-grown helicopter, a fighter jet and a trainer, and a two-seater passenger aircraft. It has set an ambitious task to build a 70-seater regional air- craft to compete with firms such as ATR, but its efforts to build a 14-seater passenger air- craft have been hit by delays.
The offset clause could help bridge the technology gaps.
Industry experts caution that dedicated aerospace zones re- quire large capital and long- term commitments by compa- nies, so unless an ecosystem is built the ventures could fail. As SEZs offer tax and other incen- tives to units within them in return for generating local jobs, experts fear the enclaves could turn into mere haunts for real estate and infrastructure devel- opers.
Aravind Melligeri, co-found- er of Quality Engineering and Software Technologies Pvt.
Ltd, or QUEST, said firms look- ing at aerospace SEZs as real estate plays will find the going tough.
“Global aerospace compa- nies look at lower costs next year than this year. So you need to have the right infrastructure and ecosystem to do that year after year,“ he said.
QUEST set up India's first aerospace SEZ in Belgaum, Karnataka. It began operations in November.
“For automobile compo- nents, if there is an issue you can rectify it on road; the loss is not much. But in aerospace, one failure can be deadly,“ said Ravinder Reddy, chairman of MTAR Technologies Pvt. Ltd.
“It will be very expensive for anyone to invest and main- tain.“
The Hyderabad-based de- fence equipment maker is set- ting up an aerospace SEZ in the city along with the state gov- ernment and as part of a con- sortium of around 50 other small firms. MTAR will also set up a unit in Lepakshi Group's aerospace park in Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh.
Lepakshi's managing direc- tor S. Balaji said the challenge in setting up an SEZ lies in bringing on one platform all the government agencies involved.
The other challenge lies in getting land.
“That problem is there every- where in the country,“ said an official at Tamil Nadu Indus- trial Development Corp. Ltd.
The state is planning two aerospace SEZs, including one in Perambalur.
The official, who didn't want to be named, said the state is inviting consultants this month to help develop a masterplan for aerospace SEZs. He didn't give more details.
In addition to these, the Kar- nataka government is setting up a 250 acre SEZ in Devana- halli near the new airport in Bangalore; the operator of Hy- derabad's new airport, GMR Hyderabad International Air- port Ltd, is setting up a 250 acre aerospace SEZ; and Maharashtra is building a dedi- cated hub in Nagpur.
Some say that even with the huge potential for foreign in- vestments in the sector, not all of the aerospace SEZs may sur- vive.
“In this competitive world, those who are fast enough, they will survive. Those who are slow, they have to close down,“ said R.C. Sinha, vice-chairman and managing director of Maharashtra Airport Develop- ment Co. Ltd, which is setting up the Nagpur enclave.

My Commets:

As per the article India will be investing $100 bn in next decade and out of that 30% should come from local the math is India will need 8 areospace SEZ in next  decade.....
so if India is to invest $100 bn in next 10 years then the contract of $30 bn will go to local vendors....that means an Rs.1,35,000 cr oppertunity........
India is going to be the next growth driver of world in next decade.
Well, due to Greek crisis and euoropean countries crisis there can be a set back in our market  as well and we can go below 16k as well but in the end we should do well as money flows where the growth is .......

Friday, May 14, 2010


I am posting a list of stocks which looks good to me....
1)Jamna Auto
2)NFL Ltd
3)Garg Furnace
4)Artefact Projects Ltd
5)ABG Shipyard
6)Srei Infra
9)Standard Ind
10)Sujana Towers

They are many more....I can't recall it now...
but there are some dark horses as well...
1)IKF Techno(The reserve is constantly increasing and hence the BV is also going up....
2)First Object Tech..
I am adding 2 more dark horse here....
3)Socrus Bio(Old Tanu Healthcare)
4)Octant Interactive Techno

Well friends, I may not be able to write from Mid July onwards as I will be coming to India to meet my parents, relatives and friends.....for 1 month....depends on how I get access of internet .......not sure......and how much I will get time to do all these things.....

Monday, May 10, 2010

Parekh Aluminex high....309...

I recomended Parekh Aluminex at around 100 and on Fri it made a new high of a down market....
I have different queries on Parekh Alu about its credentials and its products price realisation......readers were sceptic on Parekh Alu....and kept on asking me such queries....I had tried to give replies in my way....but this counter has seen atlast the light of the day and I am very happy to declare here that my conviction has paid and money has  tripled from my call.....I compared it with Ess Dee Alu at that time......
The results are there for readers.....and I am sure same is going to happen with Venus Remedies.....when investor become wary and will not buy will make new highs....

Sunday, May 9, 2010


I am reading some comments,but still I have not got the answer why certian family was chosen for that large amt , rs. 10 lacs, and why other family is not chosen?
The bottomline here is why that family is chosen and not other....Is there any justifcation for that?Why from nowonwards that family will have better life and not others?

MVS Raju's" the secret", I just got a glimpse, says same thing, man can do and undo many things...but the positive thinking also comes with birth...and one can't change it even after putting so much of effort....I have seen that in many cases..we all have seen certain people are always cheerful.....and certian person keeps complaining....even we ourself are not a complaining person, try to be cheerful like you see one of your friend...just try it....can you become a cheerful person like he is?I again repeat give a TRY.....
You will not....because that is the genes that person has got....that is natural for him....he is not making any effort to remain cheerful.....
Raju , tell me can you do it?Remain cheerful like you see your friend?These people are always welcome at places , parties because they are entertainer and will make all laugh and happy.....can anyone become like that....If one can do whatever one wants ....then just  try this?The main reason is the battery of these people are always charged and that they have got it from birth....if someone have heard, the fellow actors/ actresses have said in media that ShahRukh is a bundle of do you think Shahrukh makes specials efforts to remain like that?No....that he got it from his birth....
Likewise, I see , faircream etc taking example of Hollywood actress ,Cindy Crowfard...that what she does and what she uses to look so young even at the age of 44......but that is in her has nothing to do with fair cream....she has to do no special effort to remain look young...she is doing just all other woman does to look young ....if anyone try like that still they will not have same results that Cindy Crowfard is having....Cindy Crowfard is doing the things all woman does but the Cos take advantage of such celebrities and to sell their products......
This is a general post and not written specifically for MVS Raju....


Buffett predicted that "people in India will be living a lot better 20 years from now."

These sentence keeps on coming up in my mind.The forcast that came from non other and the Oracle of Omaha....Warren Buffet...Why he is the 2nd richest person in the world.Because he can forsee what is going to happen in next 20 years or 30 yrs or 50yrs....
That makes Warren Buffet single out from other investors and celebrities.
When WB says that people in India will have better life in next 20 yrs then what he is seeing.He is definately seeing growth in Indian Economy and also seeing thereby the standard of living going up for Indians.
That is a bullish sign for Indian Stock Market as well.

Well, while coming back to the heading"Destiny"I have written many post here on Destiny or Luck....
I have seen people arguing agaist Luck and feels that there is nothing like LUCK and one makes his own life.
But it is not so.
Since 4-5 months I am seeing Lift Kare De show of famous producer Karan Johar.Wherein he use to call some film stars of yesteryear as well as current time and try to find the best follower of that film star and those follower try to sell something and that money they earn is multiplied and is given to one family where Karan and his team went to that place and found that they live a very bad and pityable life and give money to them and that is as good as 10 lacs and more.
Now if we try to find such families in India, we will find lacs of such families where they are in acute shortage of money and their living standard is way below poverty line.....I write.....again...poverty line...
Now the faimly who gets this amount from Karan Johar Show......what we can say for that?
That family made his own life?
They made extra effort to show to Karan Johar and his team that they are extra poor and they need money?
Why it happened that other family that also needs money are not having that money as they are not chosen by Karan Johar Show at SONY TV....
Can anyone answer me this?Why other families who are also equally poor or even more poor then these family is not getting that benifit and why these are having the money from Karan Johar Show?
I would like to have feedbacks on these from my readers.....
Well, I have seen that there is a section of people who always feels that one can make his own life and you can do whatever you think ......
Well, I have also seen that these thinking I see in people more who have in middle of not so rich or super rich and not so poor but good standard of living and more with people who have excellent qualification degree and have a good salary which is more the enough for their family.These people always think that they are there because they planned it.They are there because they worked for that......and I have also noticed that these people never be able to go beyond certian level of earnings.They remain steady after a certian point of saturation.
While I have seen, that Actors, Hollywood or Bollywood,Artist,Businessman etc....they always feels that they were Lucky enough to be at the correct place at correct time.
I quoted in past of Nadan Nilkeni of Infosys , that he once told that he was lucky to be in correct place at correct time.Though he was an IIT and was acadamically brilliant he still said those words, because he has passed through all the steps and what happens in between in knows very well.
I have been always met with a counter argurment that one need to do something for getting such a big amt of money and I always believe that if money is going to come to you it will come anyway.That is what we are seeing in Karan Johar show...Right?Us family ko paisa milna tha to Karan Johar ke show ke jareye mil gaya...yahan mahenat kahan ayi......
There is saying in India.....
"Waqt se pehle aur kismat se jyada kisi ko mila hai aur kisi ko na milega"and that is true.
What is there in an actor that he becomes a billionar and have 20-30 cars and have big houses and servants etc?His /Her face?His/Her acting?What is there?
Now many actors actress have charismatic face.They looks beutiful on screen.Their smile is excellent.Like say, Rani Mukherjee.She has an excellent smile but when we looks at her voice , it is heavy and not good for an actress but still she is a successful actress and has earned crores.
Now there are many woman who have excellent smile and even they must have tried to come in film ind but didn't make it up while Rani made it up and one reason was that she was coming from a filmy background.
Can anyone tell me how many successful Actors or Actresses are there in Bollywood who have non filmy background?Can anyone tell me?
Let us do the maths.
1) Abhisek Bacchan...Amitabh Som
2)Amir Khan........producer son
3)Salam Khan......Writers son
4)Rani Mukherji.......producer daughter
5)Kajol...........actress daughter
6)Hrihtik son
7)Akshay Khanna.....actors son
I am not writing the whole list but anyone can complete it.
Now Ashwariya Rai, Sushmita Sen, Priyanka Chopra , Lara Dutta are all Miss World or Miss Universe.
What I am trying to emphasize here is if one is actors sons or something like that one gets more chance to show his/her mettle.Why others do not get that much chances?
There are barely actors and actresses like Sha Rukh Khan, Akshay Kumar where they did it on their own.But I have always seen and heard them saying ....."upper wale ki maherbani hai".....
Do you think they are humble enough to say these and giving credit to God?No, they mean it.....they know that these type of wealth is made only if God favours you and not by hard labour.....
Now if someone has got charismatic face that he/she has got from birth.Can anyone say that the face he/she got he got it himself or herself?Face , we inherit from our birth.We can't do anything about it and if face is a criteria for being successful , viz.Film Ind, then those having not a good face has very less chance to be successful in film Ind.That is called destiny.....Shah Rukh Khan knows that he is a God chosen child.The success and wealth he has generated , no man can do it without LUCK.......Why not everyone can makes money like ShahRukh Khan?Is he so excellent that what he is earning is good for what he does?
What ShahRukh Khan has done in his lifespan as a Film Actor that good to make a fortune like he is possessing?
I don't think so....and that is why when someone gets more then what he is doing....and he sees that...arre maine aisa to kuch nahi kiya tha ki muje itna mil jaye.....there comes the LUCK.....that is call LUCK....

Friday, May 7, 2010

Not Greece crisis reaction............

The sudden drop in Dow is attributed to some erroneous typing error from a trader.....otherwise I remember, even when the mortgage crisis keep coming in for huge losses there was never a drop of 1000 points in DOW....! Terrific......see what a trader can do to the make all type of errors and land the whole market in a sorry state.
So, definately that was not the reaction of Greece Financial debacle.......
Our market also should drop , maybe hugely in the morning but should recover lateron at the end of the day....I can't say , our market will be in green but , I think the fall should be arrested.......and we should not see a cliffhanger fall......Let us hope for the best......


NEW YORK (AP) -- A computerized selloff possibly caused by a simple typographical error triggered one of the most turbulent days in Wall Street history Thursday and sent the Dow Jones industrials to a loss of almost 1,000 points, nearly a tenth of their value, in less than half an hour. It was the biggest drop ever during a trading day.

The Dow recovered two-thirds of the loss before the closing bell, but that was still the biggest point loss since February of last year. The lightning-fast plummet temporarily knocked normally stable stocks such as Procter & Gamble to a tiny fraction of their former value and sent chills down investors' spines.
"Today ... caused me to fall out of my chair at one point. It felt like we lost control," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.
No one was sure what happened, other than automated orders were activated by erroneous trades. One possibilility being investigated was that a trader accidentally placed an order to sell $16 billion, instead of $16 million, worth of futures, and that was enough to trigger sell orders across the market.
No one was taking blame, either. The New York Stock Exchange said there was no problem with the Big Board's systems, and all the markets were on a conference call with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Nasdaq issued a statement two hours after the market closed saying it was canceling trades that were executed between 2:40 p.m. and 3 p.m. that it called clearly erroneous. It did not, however, mention a cause of the plunge.
The NYSE also said it would cancel some trades on its electronic platform.
There were reports that the sudden drop was caused by a trader who mistyped an order to sell a large block of stock. The drop in that stock's price was enough to trigger "sell" orders across the market.

Thursday, May 6, 2010


Future gets ready for big e-bazaar

To Sell Wide Range Of Products Through Net, Mobiles, TV & Dedicated Kiosks
Sruthijith KK NEW DELHI
Kishore Biyani’s Future Group will launch a slew of digital commerce initiatives in the next few weeks as India’s largest retailer moves to sell a wide range of products from bedspreads to treadmills through the Internet, mobile phones, television and dedicated kiosks.
“We were not satisfied with our digital presence, and now we have decided to enter that space in a big way,” Kishore Biyani, CEO of the Rs 9,000 crore group, told ET.
While the group’s online retail arm, Future Ecommerce, already operates an e-commerce portal, it will launch new initiatives such as SMS short codes, teleshopping, proximity marketing through mobile phones and virtual shopping through manned kiosks in the coming weeks.
“Most people in urban areas spend 8 to 10 hours in a day on one of the four screens we are targetting. This translates into huge sales potential,” said Mr Biyani.
The initiative will make Future Group one of the first modern retailers to move into digital commerce in a big way. It will compete with portals such as, and, as well as with websites of Shoppers Stop and Landmark, on the Internet.
E-retailing is yet to take off in a big way in India and its not at all comparable with mature markets. The size of online retailing in India is estimated at about Rs 500 crore a year and that of teleshopping is estimated at Rs 900 crore. That makes a total of just over $300 million. In comparison, a recession-hit US recorded $131 billion retail e-commerce in 2009, according to
Mr Biyani hopes to change that with his new initiative.
“We will sell across four screens and we hope the scale of what we bring will completely transform that space,” he said.
He targets sales of Rs 300 crore from digital commerce in the first year after the new initiatives are rolled out fully.
The company is in talks to acquire a small IT company with about 150 personnel to develop and maintain content and websites, he said, but declined to identify the target.
Mr Biyani himself is incubating the new business unit that will be part of Future E-commerce, where venture capital firms Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and Ram Shriram’s Sherpalo Ventures together hold 15% stake.
Its online store,, will increase the number of products available online significantly.
At present, about 4,000 SKUs, or stock keeping units, are available at compared with 1.6 lakh SKUs that an average Big Bazaar store stocks.
SKU is the most basic accounting unit of a product. Two sizes or two flavours of the same product will be accounted as different SKUs.
“Whatever we sell through the digital platforms will be cheaper by 5% to 20%, compared with the prices in the shop,” Mr Biyani said. The cost of selling a product is much lower when it goes from a godown directly to a consumer’s home without taking up shelf space in a retail store that is expensive to run.
The website will also add more information about the products, including videos.
As for teleshopping, Future Group plans to buy airtime in bulk on TV channels. But Mr Biyani ruled out launching a dedicated channel for that.
In what will be an entirely new initiative, Future Group also plans to erect manned kiosks where customers can browse through products and access information as well as videos on a screen and even place an order and pay cash.
The company will extensively promote its SMS short codes and will also carry out proximity marketing using Bluetooth and cell towerbased technologies.
Every week, three or four products from a particular category will be heavily promoted across all the digital platforms, Mr Biyani said.
India’s largest retailer moves to sell a wide range of products from bedspreads to treadmills through the Internet, mobile phones, television and dedicated kiosks
While the group’s online retail arm, Future E-commerce, already operates an e-commerce portal, it will launch new initiatives such as SMS short codes, teleshopping, proximity marketing through mobile phones and virtual shopping through manned kiosks
The initiative will make Future Group one of the first modern retailers to move into digital commerce in a big way
It will compete with portals such as, and, as well as with websites of Shoppers Stop and Landmark, on the Internet. E-retailing is yet to take off in a big way in India and its not at all comparable with mature markets
The size of online retailing in India is estimated at about Rs 500 crore a year and that of teleshopping is estimated at Rs 900 crore. That makes a total of just over $300 m
US recorded $131 billion retail e-commerce in 2009
We were not satisfied with our digital presence, and now we have decided to enter that space in a big way Whatever we sell through the digital platforms will be cheaper by 5% to 20% compared with the prices in the shop Most people in urban areas spend 8 to 10 hours in a day on one of the four screens we are targetting.

My Comments:
I read this news in todays ET .....
EBazar......what is that....People will buy through internet site instead of going to the store....and that will be cheaper then in store...Why?Because when business is done through internet, they have not to spend on salaries, daily wages , Rents for the shop,electricty bills etc and hence the price willbe cheaper then those sold in shops......and in USA I am seeing that......
So E-Commerce is going to be big thing here in next decade....and hence BPO service in India is going to be a very big market...and I don't have to write which is the Co who is the leader in Indian BPO Space.....if one do not know then try to explore through internet.....
and if people will shop through internet ,there will be more usuage of Credit Card and then the maintenance etc.....
One have to just imagine where this business can go....

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Warren Buffet coming India......Cheers...........

Warren Buffett to visit India, won't rule out investment.:

OMAHA: Warren Buffett said on Saturday he plans to visit India next March, and would not rule out the country for possible future investments.
Speaking at Berkshire's annual meeting in response to a shareholder question, Buffett said he had decided only on Friday to make the trip, saying the company's Iscar Metalworking Cos unit "is doing very well there."
Buffett said "we do not rule out India" as a possible locale for future Berkshire investments, whether in companies or marketable securities, though bureaucratic obstacles could complicate any plans to invest, including limitations on foreign ownership.
He added that "we've looked a lot at being in the insurance business in India." Insurance and reinsurance are Berkshire's main business lines.
Demographers expect India to overtake China as the world's most populous country within the next two decades, and Buffett predicted that "people in India will be living a lot better 20 years from now."
Buffett does not disclose where he plans to make future investments, but occasionally travels outside the United States to seek opportunities or check on Berkshire investments.
Among Berkshire's investments in Asia are the Korean steelmaker Posco and the Chinese car and battery maker BYD Co.
Both have been profitable, giving Berkshire respective paper profits of $1.32 billion and $1.75 billion as of year end, according to Berkshire's annual report.

My Comments:

I think................

1) That this decision of WB to visit India next March says that he will start investing ,if atall, after that....means that
2) We are not overvalued.....and will not be overvalued in next March.....
3) I know there can be arguements that he will invest in undervalued stock.....but I am sure that when we will see where he invested, that stock would have been already called as overvalued by analyst......
4) and then the justification will start why WB is buying and the future of the Co is bright and blah blah blah.....

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Stock Making 52 week highs.....

I am seeing some of my picks making 52 week highs  and I am quoting them some of them here....

1) Garnet Int.............170
2)Genesys Int.........374....recomended at 100...
3)IFB Agro.........113.....recomeded around 60
4)Parekh Alu......270......recomd at 95 or even below
5) Kale Consul...128......recomd at 85.....still a buy...
6)JSW Energy.....131...when analyst were is a buy...even now
7)Kavveri...........110......recomd at 50....still a buy
8)Spanco............125....recomed at 65...almost doubled..
9)Sumedha Fiscal......35.....recomd at 13.....

Now along with Spanco , its another Co , in BPO space, named Sparsh BPO is also making new highs......and Sparsh BPO was demerged from Spanco BPO ltd 2-3 yrs back and Spanco shareholder got the shares of Sparsh BPO free.....
Among stock which are making 52 week highs , I like Choksi Lab now at 22 and Raj Kumar Forge Ltd now at .....18...
Choksi Lab I like it because of its Clinical Trial approval they recently got....
I have not seen more in Raj Kumar Forged readers need to diggin more on this.....

Jyoti Ltd....cmp...74.15...My old call....

Jyoti Ltd is not new to my readers.I have given call on Jyoti Ltd long back...and kept on recomending time and again here.The price I use to recomend was in 20's or 30's and it has already more then doubled.
Jyoti Ltd has remained my favourite stock as I have been recomending it here whenever I use to give a list of my pick....
One can almost always see Jyoti Ltd in my list along with some of my other favourites like India Glycols,Lumax Ind,Navin Flourine, Max India, etc......
Well, as I feel Jyoti Ltd is still looking good even at this rate and on dips, I am writing on Jyoti Ltd today.....
Jyoti Ltd has a Mcap of just 96 cr and sales for last year is 291 the math...just imagine when I use to recomend at 30....what must be the Mcap?
I donno what reason one wants to invest?I think the problem here is every one wants quick money and hence not ready to look at LT......otherwise Jyoti Ltd at 30 was a screaming buy.....even when market was down by 171 points yesterday Jyoti  was up by 5% and actually made a new high....

Jyoti Ltd:

Jyoti Ltd  was established in 1943, Jyoti Ltd is a leading ISO 9001: 2008 engineering company offering reliable quality products and services to clients in India and in the international market

Service Areas :
Jyoti Ltd. today is serving the vital sectors of national and international economy such as
Power (Thermal, Hydel and Nuclear) generation, Transmission and Distribution.
Agriculture, providing irrigation through pumping systems.
Water supply and sewerage schemes.
Defense-particularly Naval and marine establishments.
Core industries like steel, cement, paper, sugar, fertilizers, chemicals and Petro-chemicals.
Virtual Engineering :
Jyoti’s Pro/ENGINEER Design Service Center is the first of its kind in the western region of the country. The center aims at Virtual Engineering by providing CAD/CAM/CAE solutions i.e. to improve designs, manufacturing process and enhance the product quality on one hand to reduce cost and time on the other.
Marketing Network :
The wide range of products and services offered are engineered by different product and service groups manned by competent professionals specializing in their respective fields. Jyoti has a country wide marketing network of Zonal and Branch offices and System houses. System houses serve as an extended arm of the network catering to the complete technical and commercial needs of customers.
Jyoti Limited today is a Rs.291 crore company having its presence in core sectors. Today JYOTI is well recognized in Power, Irrigation & Water Supply projects. JYOTI has recently commissioned 14 MW pump each delivering 7 cu mec. of water against a head of 140 mtrs. These pumps are installed in the state of Andhra Pradesh. JYOTI is already executing Circulating Water system of 3 x 500 MW Indira Gandhi Super Thermal Power Project for Aravali Power Company Pvt. Ltd. wherein six Circulating Water Pumps each having capacity of 30,000 cum/hr are to be supplied and commissioned.

JYOTI has recently received turnkey order from M/s Bhartiya Rail Bijlee Company Limited (Joint Venture between NTPC & Indian Railways) for Circulating Water system and Make up water system equipment package for (4 x 250 MW) NABINAGAR THERMAL POWER PROJECT. The scope of work involves Design, Manufacture, Supply, Erection & commissioning of Circulating Water Pumps & Motor, make-up Water Pumps & Motors, Station Auxiliary Circulating Water Pumps & Motors along with Allied equipments like Butterfly Valves, cranes, Piping, Instrumentation, etc. The order is worth INR 16.5 crores.
JYOTI is also executing a Raw Water System for MAHAGENCO worth INR 8 crores.
JYOTI has received a prestigious order from Director General of Naval Dockyard through M/s Hindustan Construction Company for INR 85 crores for re-construction and completion of Dry Dock. The order includes supply, erection and commissioning of complete Electro-mechanical work and the pumps to be supplied are in special Material of Construction suitable for sea water application.
JYOTI has wide presence also in Irrigation & Water Supply sector and have recently received order from Jammu Tavi Irrigation Department, NVDA (Narmada Valley Development Authority). JYOTI has also received three orders through IVRCL for various Lift Irrigation Schemes in the state of Karnataka.
Today JYOTI is geared up to meet all challenges and is determined to play a very important role in the core sectors of Power and Water Management to support infrastructure growth of the country.
Hydel System

Small Hydro Power (SHP) is one of the important non-polluting renewable sources of energy which can substantially contribute to Power Generation to meet ever increasing demand for electricity.
Small Hydro Power project essentially harnesses energy from flowing or falling water from rivers, rivulets, artificially created storage dams or canal drops.
In India, Jyoti Ltd. pioneered designing, manufacturing and installing Hydro Electric Generating sets for SHP projects in late fifties.
A) Turbines:
Hydel System
Type Head M Output KW) Application
Pelton 100-700 100-10000 HighHead
Turgo-Impulse 40-200 30-5000 Medium Head
Francis 30-160 50-10000 Medium and Low head
Axial Flow
Conventional 15-50 500-10000
kaplan or Propeller 3-40 250-10000
Tabular Turbine 2-25 5-8000 Low Head
B) Main Inlet Valves (MIV)
Butterfly valve 300-3200 mm
Spherical valve 400-600 mm
C) Governors
D) Hydro Generators
LT 10-1000 KW (Synchronous/Induction)
HT 400-10000 KW (Synchronous)
HT 400-5000 KW (Induction)
E) Micro Turbine Generator Set
Type of Turbine Turgo - Impulse
Speed 1500 rpm
Design Head 35 Meters (115 Feet)
Design Flow Rate 35 lps ( 124 m3/Hr. )
Type of Generator Brush-less AC Generator
Rated KVA/KW 6.25 / 5.0 KW
At Jyoti, Hydro Turbines to match varying heads and outputs are designed and manufactured in wide range. In addition, the auxiliary hydro-generating equipment such as Generators, Inlet Valves, Governors, Switchgears etc. are also designed and manufactured. This single source responsibility guarantees uninterrupted performance of the entire Hydro Generating System. Jyoti is one of the very few companies in the world to assume such single source responsibility.

Jyoti undertakes Design, Manufacturing, Installation and Field Testing of Pelton, Turgo Impulse, Francis & Axial Flow Hydel Set on Turnkey basis as single responsibility.
Jyoti Micro turbine generating set is a very compact and portable equipment to convert Hydraulic energy in to Power.
Jyoti Micro turbine is a very useful source of energy for the places without Grid power, such as remote villages in Hilly regions and Military camps etc. Jyoti Micro turbine generating sets can supply the electricity to run the lights and fans, water heaters, and other household appliances and communication equipment.
Jyoti Micro turbine generator set supplies power continuously for 24 hrs. at rated capacity. Electronic governor splits the load between actual load and ballast resistive load depending on the actual load.
Jyoti Micro turbine generator set is very easy and handy to transport and install on the site. The penstock of flexible HDPE hose-pipe is very easy to install. Hardly any civil work is required.

Jyoti is pioneer in development of small Hydro-Power and has installed Mini/Micro Hydel Power Stations long back in 1961.

Out of total 180 MW installed capacity of mini/micro Hydel sets in India, JYOTI'S installation contributes to 140 MW.
Jyoti installations are in service, even after 35 years.
Till now Jyoti has supplied more than 400 hydel sets, out of which more than 60 hydel sets are exported to countries like Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan, Ghana, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, U.S.A. etc.
Till now Jyoti has supplied more than 400 hydel sets, out of which more than 60 hydel sets are exported to countries like Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan, Ghana, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand, U.S.A. etc.
Jyoti has installed a Hydro Electric Power station at Rongtong in Himachal Pradesh at a height of 3900 m, the highest in India.
Jyoti has installed and commissioned, India's first unmanned remote operated, fully automatic (single push button start) small hydro power station near Bombay at Bhivpuri Tail Race Power House, of Tata Electric Companies.
Jyoti is one of the very few to assume single source responsibility of designing, manufacturing, supplying, erecting and commissioning complete Hydro Generating Set.

Jyoti Ltd. is the only supplier in India of Turgo Impulse Turbine for medium head application.
Large number of Hydro Electric power stations installed by Jyoti has paid back the investment in 3 years.
Jyoti has received award for outstanding contribution to the development of Small Hydro Power in India, as Equipment manufacturer from International Association for Small Hydro (IASH).
Jyoti has successfully developed, installed and commissioned fully Digital Electronic Governor with built in Logic base Auto-synchronizer.
Pelton Turbine

Manufactured for high head with horizontal arrangement with single and multi jet configuration. The control mechanism can be either deflector or spear and deflector as required by the customer. Turbine efficiency is high irrespective of load variation. Due to its simple construction, the maintenance of the Turbine is very easy.
Francis Turbine
Manufactured for low and medium head, this turbine can be supplied in two configurations i.e. Monoblock, a two bearing system in which the turbine runner and flywheel are mounted on generator shaft. The other one being Dual-block in which Turbine and Generator have their own bearings thus making it a four bearing systems. The Hydel set can be offered in vertical or horizontal axis orientation.
Turgo Impulse Turbine
This turbine is suitable for medium head. Due to its small size and higher specific speed compared to equivalent Pelton Turbine, making it the most economical one. The construction and control are similar to Pelton Turbine.
Horizontal Tubular Turbine
This turbine is most suitable for canal drops. There are three types of 'JYOTI' Tubular Turbine
- Kaplan (Both runner blades and guide vanes adjustable)
- Semi Kaplan, Syphontype (Guide vanes fixed and runner blades adjustable)
- Propeller (Guide vanes adjustable and runner blades fixed)
Kaplan turbines are used where head and discharge variations are high. Propeller turbines are used where head and discharge variations are low and semi Kaplan turbines are used where head and discharge variations are high in comparison to propeller turbines.

‘Jyoti’ Governors are capable for single / double regulation of turbine. Two types of Governors i.e. HYDRO-MECHANICAL & ELECTRONIC are designed, manufactured and supplied
Hydro Mechanical Governor
Hydro-mechanical Governor with motorized pendulum assembly for speed sensing and motorized oil pumping unit for controls up to 100 KW has been designed and manufactured at Jyoti Ltd. and supplied with many Hydel sets.
Electronic Governor
Keeping with the strides made in the field of Electronics, Jyoti has developed a microprocessor based, Electronic Programmable Digital Governor. The governor has successfully undergone extensive field tests. The governor is running satisfactorily at various sites. It can also perform additional governing and control functions such as :
Level regulation
Central governing & control system
Flow regulation
Storage volume regulation
Power regulation.
The main advantage of Electronic Governor is its capability to change control parameters ‘on-line’. This means when turbine is operating, control parameters can be changed simultaneously. This is a sophisticated governor, which can be interfaced with PC/PCL for remote and tele-opeation.
Inlet Valves
Developed at Jyoti's R & D, these valves are used for emergency shutdown of the unit. Two types of valves are manufactured at Jyoti.
Butterfly Valve
It is used for head up to 250 meters and are manufactured in solid disc or bi-plan type construction. Opening of the valve is by Oil pressure and closing with the help of dead weight.
Spherical Valves
Mainly used for head above 200 M and is opened by oil pressure and closed by dead weight.
  Jyoti has been in forefront of Switchgear technology as manufacturer of Medium and High Voltage Switchgear in India for over 40 years.

Minimum Oil Circuit Breakers (MOCBs)
In 1957, Jyoti pioneered manufacure of 3.3 - 36 kV MOCBs in technical collaboration with Calor Emag, Germany. In 1967, 145 KV MOCBs were introduced first time in India in technical collaboration with Oerlikon Engg. Co., Switzerland. In 1973, first indigenous 33 kV, 750 MVA outdoor MOCB was type-tested at High Power Laboratory, Czekoslovakia. The Indoor MOCB (12 kV, 40 kA / 7.2 kV, 44 kA) was developed and tested at KEMA, the Netherlands and Central Power Research Institute, Bhopal.
Jyoti has received Import Substitution Awards from Government of India thrice for development of MOCB range of products.
Vacuum Circuit Breakers (VCBs) and Vacuum Contactors

Jyoti has technical collaboration with Toshiba Corporation, Japan for manufacture of VCBs. 'Jyoti' 7.2 kV Medium Voltage Switchgear panels and Outdoor VCB's are serving Thermal Power Stations while 12/24/36 kV 'Jyoti' VCB panels & Outdoor VCB's are in service in utilities and Core Industries.
At present, more than 10,000 Nos. VCBs are in satisfactory service. Entire range of Switchgear is fully type tested at independent testing stations in India at CPRI & ERDA. Additionally, Jyoti's 12 kV VCB & Panels are type tested at KEMA, The Netherlands also.
The Switchgear Division has received ISO 9001 certificate from TUV CERT, Germany for establishing and applying Quality system.
Roating Electronics Machines

Alternators/ Generators
Medium/ High Voltage Motors
Special Purpose Rotating Electrical Machines
Generator for Wind Turbine
Largest Rating Vertical Motors for Lift-Irrigation schemes
Jyoti has pioneered the development of Rotating Electrical Machines for more than fifty years. They include :
Alternators/ Generators
Alternators/ Generators have been significantly contributing to the core sector of power generation. L.T. Alternators - Self Excited Self Regulated (SESR) and Brush-less are coupled to diesel and gas engines as well as to steam or hydel turbines.
There are special alternators for Navy & Marine alternators.
Alternators with special design for thyristor load upto 60%.
Special design for telecom installations.
H.T. Alternators are developed for captive power generation. They are working in parallel with grid systems and are coupled to D.G. Sets.
Large number of Alternators are serving in the process industries. More than 55% of sugar industries in India meet their captive power requirements through 'Jyoti' alternators.
The Hydro Generators are serving Mini/Micro Hydel Stations to generate power from water falls . They are specially built to withstand high run-away speeds based on turbine characteristics.
Medium and High Voltage Motors
A wide range of medium voltage Motors (Slip-ring and squirrel cage Induction Motors) provide a drive to number of fluid, air handling, material handling, mines, sugar industries equipment.
High Tension Motors are installed at Thermal and Nuclear Power Plants, Core Industries and Water Supply & Irrigation Projects.

Special Purpose Rotating Electrical Machines
Jyoti has developed special purpose rotating electrical machines, custom-built to meet specific requirements of users. For Indian Railways, Asia's largest Rail network, Jyoti pioneered the development of Amo Convertors for single to three phase conversion in A.C. electric locomotives.
Similarly there are Frequency Convertors for 50 Hz. to 60 Hz conversion for repairs on berthed ships and for 50 Hz to 150 Hz for Rayon industries, transformer testing etc. Further, 150/200HZ M.G. sets for Transformer Testing are also developed.
Sugar Industry has a long association with Jyoti. 'Jyoti' multi-speed sugar centrifuge motors are serving 60% of sugar factories in India.
There are two-speed pole amplitude modulated (PAM) motors for energy conservation. They achieve dual speeds with single winding. They are suitable for a wide range of fluid and air handling equipment.
Generators for Wind Turbines
In the non-conventional energy area Jyoti created major niche by developing Induction Generators for Wind Turbines to generate power by using wind energy.
Largest Rating Vertical Motors for Lift-Irrigation Schemes
Jyoti has successfully designed, engineered, manufactured and tested [In- House] the Largest rating Vertical Motor of rating : 2250 kW ( 3000hp) 6600 Volts, 595 r.p.m. (10-Pole), Vertical -Mounting with Closed -Air- Circuit - Air - Cooled (C.A.C.A.) Motors for Lift-Irrigation Schemes.

My Comments:
This is just a tip of an iceberg.If one will go to the site of Jyoti Ltd one can find many more things where they are in.....
I donno, why noone ever asked me about Jyoti Ltd. I have been constantly recomending this stock for over a year or I can say from the starting of my blog....Dec 07....
Jyoti Ltd still looks good as it is in Irrigation system, Pumps, Motors etc etc........
According to me the journey has just started.......