Tuesday, January 29, 2008

CalPERS says it’s foolish to avoid India...............

I thanks Prashant to bring this article to my notice....which again vindicates my stand that we are in a big secular bull run and nothing to worry.
The fall we saw was absolutely due to F&O margins call due to overleveraged position.

CalPERS says it’s foolish to avoid India; wants half of its $150bn in equities to be in emerging markets n $436bn TIAA-CREF has put in $500m
NEW YORK: As the US economy struggles to find its footing, pension fund managers are straying further afield to locate safe havens.
They are expected to allocate record amounts this year to emerging markets such as India and China.
TIAA-CREF, one of the biggest pension funds in the US with $436 billion under management, is a case in point.
“We have increased our investments in emerging markets from very little a few years ago to more than $4.5 billion today. We are hoping to increase it (further),” Brett Hammond, managing director and chief investment strategist of TIAA-CREF, told DNA Money on the eve of a week-long trip to Mumbai.
“For India, we have gone from nearly nothing to nearly 500 million today,” he said.
“We are looking to tap the potential of large-cap growth stocks in the BRIC countries. They have been doing well and we think there is room to grow.”
Bargain Indian financial service stocks are likely to be on the fund’s radar. (Likes of Khandwala sec....)
According to company officials an increase in allocations to the BRIC economies —- Brazil, Russia, India and China —- is on the cards through the launch of a new emerging markets fund later this year.
Hammond said the fund was not unduly concerned by the current volatility in emerging markets linked to fears about a recession in the US.
“We believe India has a good investment climate. As a pension fund we are very conservative. We are not the first to go anywhere but when we do make a commitment — we stay. We are not hot money. We have been looking at India for a long time and we have gotten to the point where we are very excited.”
TIAA-CREF, one of the biggest buyers of commercial real estate in the US, has designs on Indian bonds, equities and real estate.
“At this point, we are looking more at India securities. But, this does not preclude an interest in other things. We are the second biggest buyers of commercial real estate in the US. We have expanded into Europe. And, we are looking to invest next into Asia,” said Hammond who is travelling this week to Mumbai to deliver a keynote address on “The Pension Fund Perspective on India” at a CII-sponsored conference.
The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), which is the largest public pension fund is keen to get out of developed market assets and into emerging markets.
Russell Read, chief investment officer of CalPERS, said at a meeting in California that it is “internationalising” its investment portfolio to score higher returns with the help of emerging markets.
“You have to capture the big investment themes,” Read told the meeting. “Our expectation is that opportunities will remain quite good overseas.”
Says Clark McKinley of CalPERS told DNA Money: “We would be stupid to ignore India, which is growing at a fabulous rate. We have a global equity portfolio of $150 billion, two-thirds of that is in US stocks; one-third of it is in international and emerging markets. There is a proposal before the board to put half of our portfolio into international and emerging markets.
The San Francisco Employees’ Retirement System (SFERS) pension fund with assets of more than $12 billion is also looking at India.
“The big time winners are likely to be the large-cap companies in emerging market countries like India and China. There is an upside for investors who know where to look,” said a fund manager in SFERS, who felt the equity markets in emerging countries were in early stages of a first quarter trough.
My comments:
I have been giving all evidences eversince the Mayhem of last 10 days has happened that Bull run is still in tact......This is one other testimony of that.....what much more one wants...............

Why there is no Mayhem seen in US market?...........

We have seen the worst kind of Financial debacle since last 60 yrs.That is what Mr.George Soros is saying....and he fears that it can eventually end in a global recession.....and that is why he is selling lock, stock and barrel...in Indian market....
If the damage is so huge why Dow is not slipping to a below 10k level from the high of 14k...means 30% down from high?When the US economy is going slow and ultimately will end in a recession then why US investors are not scared of in holding stocks?Why they are not selling in huge quantity?What is to be understood?Is the recession FEAR a FLASE FEAR?Are Fund managers overdoing the analysis?What is that?Are they trying to put pressure on Ben to cut rates?
I am surprised to see Why, How, and for what reason Dow is not exhibiting the bearishness we are seeing in emerging markets?If our market can tank from 21k to 15500 means a drop is 30%, when Hengseng , Korea, Nikkie, China,Russia, Brazil can sheds 25-30%, why Dow is not getting beated in that way.Here one may argue that here in EM's there can be selling of US funds and Hedge funds and hence we are showing such a big fall....but when the selling takes place to pay for the losses in USA market in Subprime Mortgage , then the selling should take place in US market as well and that has happened there also.Citi, Goldman Sachs stocks have nose dived to the extent of 60% and above and still we are seeing Dow at above 12K...that is surprising....Either our sensex calculation is going wrong or the weightage is more in certain scrip.I think it is time to have a look at calculating the sensex points.Sebi has to think about it seriously.
Now let us assess the situation.The majority of the fall happened was due to over leveraged in F&O section and that damage is done.I think we should look forward to our growth which is still in tact.I heard Ramesh Damani and Shankar Sharma in taking stocks.Though not heard word by word but both were extremly bearish I can understand about SS but was surprised to see RD becoming bearish..No doubt the excesses were there but it has been precipitated in this carnage and we are almost even back to normal...as P/E is now at 14!Wow!But SS says ,he feels we will a negative trend in our market...means bearish trend...which I don;t think so could happen....as the 3rd qr results are coming good....and henec no reason to be bearish....I only know one thing and that is good fundamentals and Bear market cannot walk hand in hand.....
I am bullish uptill 15 Mar 08 where again a big storm can come in the name of profit booking for March ending..........but I am seeing a big rally starting from 1st Feb onwards.....
Let us see,
Warm Regards,

Saturday, January 26, 2008

God send opportunity........................

This is God send opportunity when the stocks are down by almost 50%.I wrote in my last post that market will recover.It has recoverd though Midcap/smallcap is still out of favour.
The next week will be the last week of F&O and hence volatility will remain.According to my view,from the 1st week of feb market should start the pre budget rally which can take market to cross even previous highs.
The fall seems to be more a planned one done purposefully then a real selling.
The reasons that I feel like that is as under.
1)FII sold 17,000 cr worth stocks in Jan but didn't take out ther money fom India.If they would have done so , which in case to make up the loss in US Subprime Mortgauge,then rupee must have gone down...means rupee must have fallen to 40-40.50 level.As rupee has not fallen it means that they sold to invest in REL Power issue and the total value of IPO is 12,000 cr it is natural that they will not get 100% allotment.One can assume that it can be 10-20% means max 2400cr ...means 15,000 cr will again come to market.
2)Read somewhere that NRI's sold some rs 30-35 cr shares on 14th of Jan when there was a fall of 100 points only.They again sold some 10-12cr worth shares on Tues when the sensex fall by 400 points.
They bought 22 cr worth shares on Monday when market tanked by 2000 points and again by 5-6 cr on Tues when there was a lower circuit in first 1 min of opening.NRI's didn't buy stocks on last Friday, of last week,but bought on Mon and Tues , it means the overseas investors were knowing that the fall was to come and that too a bigger one on Mon and Tues this week.
3)One more reason for me to believe that this is an engineered fall is that,if one goes back to look at the May 2006 fall, which happened from the then new high of 12700 to 8800,it was the time RPL(Ril Petro) getting listed.That time it weas big brother listing , now it is younger brother listing.
This time the market broke down from the recent new high of 21000 to 15500.

Looking at the above reason I am of the opinion that this is more a engineered fall then a real Bear Market scenario.
And I am sure that market will get back to normal in due course of time.Midcap/smallcap are here to stay , ofcourse having strong fundamentals.
I have discussed some stocks here as also written some stocks in my post of Indian Stocks on Sale at 50% discount.The are still a buy as the fundamentals are great of these stocks.That doesnt mean that others which I have discussed in past are not.I leave what yo buy to to my readers .

Monday, January 21, 2008

Indian Stocks on Sale.....50% off.....

A complete Mayhem....biggest fall in the history of Indian Stock market.
Well, friends under normal circumstances I would have not written anything today but for the 1400 points mayhem.
I am not worried.....well, do we (small investors) has to worry?If we are holding fundamentally strong stocks then why we should worry....Is Indian economy has gone to dustbin?Are we slowing down?Are the results came thus far, are bad?
If all the answers are in "NO" then why we should worry.....I am not at all worried by the fall...The only person who has to worry is those who has borrowed the money and has to pay them back within 2-3 months or even in shorter time.I have always written that , do not overlevearaged your position....Jitni Chadder hai utna hi pair lamba ki ji ye...otherwise you will put yourself in a very bad position....you will thereby also put your Family and friends also in a very bad position....due to the tension of LOSS you have made....while buying out of pocket......
I have always said that NEVER NEVER PLAY IN F&O...........that is the first criteria for being and remaining happy.
Market is bound to be normal by the end of the Valan......there can be more pain tommorow as I wrote yesterday, that recovery can start by Tuesday....
The reason I have been able to find for this Mayhem is, market become overbought, a single entity sold stocks in Cash market upto $3-4 bn and then he sold Nifty futures on Wed...of 53 lacs nifty futures and again he sold 21 lacs nifty futures..means he sold 75 lacs nifty in a week...and is still standing on it.....He will have to come to cover it......let us see what happens then....
But as of now I am writing some stocks which have corrected in a big way and are on a SALE with a discount at 50% and more...
1)Kirloskar Ferro.........high...101.90.....now.....55
4)Sujana towers..............."..........235........."..........164
5)SKS logistic................."..............81..........."..........56
6)Flex Food...................."...............42............"...........23.45
7)Spice jet

Well, there are others as well.....
Friends ,don't worry...market will bounce back and will be normal in due course of time....I do not agree with Mr. Ahmed view that we are in for a Bear phase......Mr.Ahmed should remember that good fundamentals and Bear Phase do not go hand in hand.....Bear Phase can only be possible if fundamentals do not helps.........but it is not thus the case.....
The market was overbought and correction is bound to happen....and that happened......it is normal..only thing is it came suddenly , but that always happen...
Anyway...I am not worried at all.....about the correction.....I reiterate that there is no need to panic no need to worry.....Friends,if you have bought good stocks no need to worry.....go to sleep nicely.....no anxiety....friends......
I again write here...don't try to average when the stock is falling.........it means that you are trying to change the wrong decision.....of yours.....
But as usual I would again like to write that I may prove wrong in my analysis......remember this always.....

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Please bear with me if I do not respond to anyone's query or may not write a post as per your expectation and that is because as I am going to USA on 1st Feb ,I am busy shopping and packing things and meeting relatives and friends.
I would also like to write here that I may even not respond from there as usual as my first priority would be to get a decent job as soon as possible and get setteled at the earliest and ,I appeal to my overseas(living out of India) readers and viewers , if anyone can help me getting a decent job, they can mail me at desairi@yahoo.co.in ..or rajuidesa@gmail.com. I would send my Resume...I will be going to Chicago.
Now coming back to market,I don't think sensex can touch 17,100....
Market can still go down on Monday but by tuesday the recovery should start and it will be in same way as it tanked...get ready for 700 points up.....
Results are coming good, rather can say excellent.No need for worry.Billions of money ready to get invested in India....As soon as the market will stop going down the buying frenzy will again start..and again upper circuits will be seen...
If anyone holding good fundamental stocks no need to worry...

Thursday, January 17, 2008


Yesterday was a recovery day...
Many would think that even after almost 400 points down how can I write a recovery day?
But market recovered from the low of 670 odd points and remained close by 380 points.
That is known a recovery...because on day before yesterday, market didn't recover till the end and when such thing happens it means that market will still go down next day in morning which happened yesterday.......
Market is looking good.Fundamentals are still in place.No need to worry.
Only those having levearaged position will have to think about correction.One have invested has not to get perturbed.
According to my opinion,US Subprime debacle will end by next qr.I have no doubt that US economy will again become good in next 1-2 qrs....
The election is coming by the end of the year in USA and hence I am seeing a very good runup in US market as well, where Dow can touch even, 16k to 17k figure........
Most of loss in Subprime Issue is made up by selling minor stake to Chinese Finance institution and Gulf countries investors......
Overall market is looking good upto Budget....Stay invested....

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

ACi ltd............Major annoucement at BSE

I am happpy to see this annoucement at bse today and was extermly happy to note that my Call on ACi is vindicated.
I has never doubt about the ability of this company anf being a Ewaste company with producing Laptops cheaper and also durable as Ashok Trivedi wrote.
I hope those having doubts and were asking me about this company ,about the credentials of this company is laid to rest.

Allied Computers International (Asia) Ltd has informed BSE that the service contract the Company have been awarded by a UK firm to recycle laptop parts at the Company's EHTP plant in Gandhinagar, Gujarat.The Company win is first E-waste recycle order worth Rs 10 Crore.Soon after the Company's press announcement of its plans to launch its E-Recycling plant in Gujarat, a UK firm, Open Start Ltd dealing in laptop parts has awarded ACi a contract worth over Rs 10 Crore. Open Start Ltd is to send a minimum of 5,000 motherboards in the first shipment for ACi to repair on job work basis.ACi expects many orders of such nature in the year 2008 from various parts of the world as the extended facilities are fully setup and functional to handle high volume."Our setup at Gandhinagar will be one of its kind in India and we expect many orders of such nature from around the world" says, the Managing Director, Mr. Hirji Patel, He further adds "This unit will help resolve the ever growing global shortage of laptop motherboards""With our E-Recycle unit in Gujarat, we will be able to re-cycle all PCBs and LCD screen used within laptops and LCD monitors. The Company is expected to generate substantial local and export revenue with this service in the forth coming fiscal year" says Mr. Hirji Patel.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Don't be afraid on Today's Fall............Buy Call on JCT Ltd........

As I have written in my last post about market movement. Corrections will come and go

Actually these are buying time if someone has missed the Bus...

Well, as I have never given a speculative buy call, and one should also remember that as I pick stocks early they takes time to mature and hence while buying stocks which I have recomended be ready to hold for a year or two.
Well, it may also happen that the entire story do not materialse and hence stock do not at all move or rather tank.....so be ready for such Mishaps as well.....I am writing this because that has happened with my calls.
I have gone wrong horribly at times.......Do your own diligence , search the level of comfort and then buy.....again I say, when I recomends stocks they are in a very very nascent stage as the story is just unfolding and in between anything can happen!

I am giving a buy call on JCT Ltd a Textile comp
The story of Wind Mill is developing and it will take time to mature.I would like my viewers to diggin this company and tell me what is happening at this counter and if there is another trigger apart from this.
I hope and expect that readers will give me more feedbacks as well along with querying on any stocks, I hope it would be not a one way affair....Like some Reports, Annual Reports any news that I may have missed.....which u have read somewhere or heard somewhere (that includes any targets)and whether I am not in Know.....that goes for any stocks , that includes even which I have not covered here.....
I am a learner and would not like to remain a prejudice mind......
Not neccesary to give whole text but summary would be suffice....

Monday, January 14, 2008

India to see $700-bn investment in 4 yrs: Kamath.....

Looking at what Mr.Kamath speaks and he being a wellkown figure in Finance sector,now no doubt should be left in investors mind that Indian economy is on high growth path and hence Stock market is also on high growth path and hence my targets of 28k to 30k this year is achievable.
We can see a rerun of Japan Nikkie of 39000 and even more.....in next 4-5 yrs....
Correction are bound to come and they may be in such a magnitude that the confidence will be shattered and Chartist will start giving a SELL signal and every one will be anxious what is happening and what will happen then....but we will be back on track....
I have been asked by my many friends that Ramesh Damani is seeing a big big fall in our market in next 2-3 months.It is obvious that Apr/May/June are such period where market use to go in DEEP correction.We have witnessed in past and hence we should be ready to face that correction whenever it comes.
But am not sure whether that correction would be a prolonged bear phase....we will look at it when it will come, but as I have written, don't SHY of booking profit...that is the BUZZ word...

India to see $700-bn investment in 4 yrs: Kamath

NEW DELHI: Anticipating a 700-billion-dollar investment pipeline for the country, ICICI Bank Managing Director and CEO K V Kamath has said that corporates alone would infuse up to 500 billion dollars in the next three to four years. "India has a strong investment pipeline. Currently, we are putting the pipeline at around 700 billion dollars. Till recently, we talked about 500 billion dollars," Kamath told here.
More importantly, corporate cashflow itself would account for up to 500 billion dollars and the investment needs would not depend heavily on debts, as was the case about ten years ago, Kamath said. The time period for these investments to materialise is 3-4 years, he added.
While noting that the timeframe would depend on sectors where the money is going, he said, "If it is an hydroelectric project, (it would be) three and a half years; if it is some other investment, the time frame could be different... this (3-4 years) is an an average level." The managing director of India's largest private lender said he does not see India's growth story slackening for another 15 years as there is a dramatic level of investment happening in the country.
"Just to put in context, about ten years back near 1995-96, if the national investment reached 15-20 billion dollars a year, we thought that was a tremendous improvement... We have raised the bar higher for ourselves. "It is across all sectors, all areas where we see bottlenecks. There is nothing left out. If we see bottlenecks, this would mean that it needs to be funded," he said. Kamath said that ten years back, this investment would have been funded through 30 per cent equity and 70 per cent debt. "That time you would have a large problem meeting this need and over leveraging risk consequent to that... Now, we believe that corporate cash flows are running between 150 billion dollars to 200 billion dollars a year." This has reversed the trend to 70 per cent equity and 30 per cent debt now, cutting down the reliance on debt dramatically. Noting that the country's robust economic growth was boosting the corporate cashflow, he said the corporate profit growth would be at least 15-20 per cent and there were no signs of a slowdown. Besides, improving corporate numbers, global liquidity and an appetite for Indian equity are contributing to the decline in reliance on debts, Kamath said.
Corporate India is not consuming the debt to a level seen earlier and it is the public that is emerging as a major debt consumer, bringing down the pressure on liquidity, he noted.
"The lay consumer today is probably the largest consumer. Seven years back, the lay Indian was not a (significant) consumer and had the Corporate India been consuming, the pressure would have been there," Kamath said.

Friday, January 11, 2008

An Appeal to all readers...........

My one of my best friend has lost his father due to Cancer of throat.It was because of the Pan Masala with Tobacco and Tobacco Mava..chewing...
I have already lost my many good and very near friends due to eating and chewing Pan Masala and Mava that includes Tobacoo and Chuno...which is the most dreaded combination for converting it to a Cancer.....
Hence I request all my readers who are Eating or Chewing Mava or Pan Masala with Tobacco in it, to leave it immidiately....I have written Immidiately because there is no way to STOP CHEWING PanMasala slowly...these things are to be stopped at a stroke...otherwise one will never be able to stop it....
This chewing Pan Masala is seen more in our Gujarat State...do not know whether it is there onm South or East Region ...but maybe it is there in Mumbai and Maharastra....
Hope you all will take some clue from what I have written and act accordingly....at the earliest....
Best Of Luck to all who has Chewing habit and a request and advice and suggestion to leave at the earnest....

Yesterday was a bad day.....

Yesterday was a bad day and market tanked by 300 points in late hrs.But that is due to the uncertainty of Infy results.
Midcap/Smallcap has run good and a correction was there for taking.
No need for worry in that space.If we have bought good fundamentals stocks they are bound to go up again.
Such correction lenghthens the Midcap/Smallcap Bull Run...as going only one way will create a big mayhem, so better they correct at regular intervels....
The biggest plus point about this Bull run which started from May 2003, from 3100 Sensex is there is always a corretion and that is making our market to run on and on and on.....ofcourse the fundamentals are intact..as without that it is not possible....hence this type of correction do not exhaust the market to succumb under Bear onslaught and the trends reverse which use to happen in past years in the hisotry of Indian Stock market since Harshad Mehta time, since 1992...
Still there are scores of Midcap/Smallcap which are available and new opportunity will keep on coming...Remember to BOOK PROFIT in your stocks as Indian Market give ample opportunity to buy again...ofcourse this may not happen in all stocks....but profit booking is a MUST....don't hesitate to book profit.....but at the time don't be out of any stocks 100% if you are sure about the fundamentals...

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Charts are also ecohing my view........on Sensex targets...

I wrote on Sensex days back that it can touch 28k -30k....and when I read in Monay's Business Standard "The Smart Investor Guide" I felt I am going on right path and understand the fundamentals of our economy well..

Here is the write up that I am pasting for all to read:
Remember Milind Karandikar is an IITian by Qualification and is writing at BS since 2 -3 yrs.

What the charts foretell

Milind Karandikar / New Delhi January 7, 2008

What do technical analysts feel about the market in 2008? Three experts share their views.

Year 2007 was spectacular for equity investors as a majority of stocks, across all classes and representing different sectors, delivered more than healthy returns.

How will 2008 be? To know what the charts indicate, The Smart Investor gets three technical analysts to predict what’s in store for the current year. Read on to know more.

Lage raho Munnabhai
Milind Karandikar
Year 2007 really turned out to be “The Year of the Bull” as I had mentioned in my last article on January 8, 2007 in The Smart Investor. I received numerous mails following the article stating that I am trying to fool investors by giving some unrealistic projections of the BSE Sensex (20,000 by December 2007).

But, the Sensex did hit the target and fooled all those who did not trust my Neowave analysis. The stock markets would go where they would like to irrespective of what you and me wish. I am just an interpreter of the patterns they form.

No doubt that my analysis goes wrong on a number of occasions, especially in the short term, but on the longer term charts, the patterns look less confusing and future projections become more reliable.

Right now, the pattern formed is suggesting that another huge bull run is impending. The technical analysis of this pattern has been discussed in the Technical outlook paragraph.

Even though year 2007 closed with a bang with the Sensex closing above the 20,000 mark, it was a rollercoaster ride for the indices over the year. The Sensex survived two major falls of over 2,000 points in February and July 2007 and managed to close near the all-time high.

Fundamental issues like crude oil prices, US sub-prime crisis, kept on producing ripples in global markets. Many analysts were worried about overstretched valuations at 14,000 level of the Sensex and continue to be worried at 20,000 level. Some are afraid of a bubble forming but, the markets are not ready to listen. If a bubble is going to form, you and me cannot stop it.

On the contrary, majority would not agree to the existence of such a bubble. The reason being a bubble is called a bubble only after it bursts. Everyone wants the bull markets to prevail for ever. But, since every bull phase is succeeded by a bear phase, one has to be very alert about exiting the market.

Technical outlook

The weekly chart of the Sensex shows that after a huge consolidation period (1992-2003) we are in a big bull run for almost last five years now. This rally is a large X-wave, which I had mentioned in my earlier articles also. A zigzag (A) – (B) – (C) pattern is the first part of this up move followed by a connecting pattern (X-wave).

This connecting wave is in the form of a running triangle that began in May 2006 and ended in August 2007. The presence of such a running triangle indicates tremendous upside potential for the Sensex. The calculations based on Neowave theory (By Glenn Neely) suggest that the breakout from such a triangle should be at least 1.618 times the largest leg of the triangle.

This puts the Sensex target at around 27,000 mark. The breakout could be as big as 2.618 times the largest leg, leading to a mind boggling figure of 39,000. Even if we keep aside this over-optimistic view, the target of 27,000 could be achieved and that too most probably in the first half of 2008.
The daily chart shows one directional wave (A) followed by wave (B), which seems to be a diametric pattern. This pattern has seven legs and has a bow-tie shape.

This pattern seems to be almost over and the next wave (C) has began. I expect this wave to be again a directional move. Right now one cannot predict which pattern will finally evolve in the entire rally from the bottom of August 2007.

Investment perspective

The diametric formation mentioned in the last paragraph has appeared on most of the indices viz. Sensex, Nifty, BSE-500, S&P CNX 500, etc. Structurally, the patterns in broader market indices like BSE-500 suggest much stronger up move. It means that the chances are high for mid caps and small caps to outperform large caps in this rally.

But, one should choose fundamentally sound stocks from these sectors that have not somehow participated in the earlier rallies of the Sensex. There are always a lot of manipulated stocks from these sectors, which attract public attention and become good traps to lose money.

The sectors that are looking good right now are banking, steel and power generation. But, I personally feel that finally it would turn out to be a broad based rally in which most of the sectors would participate.

Finally, those who are investing fresh money have to be very cautious in selecting the stocks. And for those who are already holding good stocks for long time, my advice is Lage Raho Munnabhai!

(The author is a Neowave analyst and may be contacted at: milindkarandikar@mtnl.net.in or karandikar.milind@gmail.com)

Monday, January 7, 2008

Allied Computers International (Asia)...Ltd...annoucement at bse today....

Allied Computers International (Asia) Ltd has informed BSE that that the official launch of India's first laptop for Rs 14,999. The Launch is to take place on January 08, 2008 at a press conference held at Bangalore.

- The Company launches India's first laptop for Rs 14,999 at Bangalore Press Conference tomorrow.

ACi rolls out its highly publicized Rs 14,999 laptop earlier than promised. This entry level product was targeted to be launched towards the end of first quarter of year 2008. High-end of this laptop with revolving touch screen and tablet features is due to be rolled out toward end of February 2008.

The long awaited laptop for below Rs 15,000 is now here and for a change, its launched first in India! The ACi ultra-mini is a full laptop with VIA 1.0 GHz CPU, 512 MB RAM, 40 GB HDD and WiFi enabled. It weighs a mere 950 grams and house a 7" TFT screen. This laptop is ideal for all traveling users as well as ones which are looking for budget computing on the move.

The product will be displayed for the first time at a press conference held at Bangalore on January 08, 2008. ACi ultra mini will be first offered to users in India before starting its distributions abroad.

The Company will restrict supplies of this product region wise in order to cater for the high volume of demand expected.

"We have encountered a great demand for this low-cost laptop since our pre-launch announcement to the electronic and press media. Sale of this product together with eight of our other range of laptops is expected to push the turnover of the Company well beyond the targeted Rs 200 Crore for fiscal year 2008-2009" says the Managing Director, Mr. Hirji Patel.

More on Options..........

My one other good friend feltra(Raman)as asked me about Options.He says that people says Options are better then future as the loss gets limited.
I agree with that, that the loss is limited on options call and puts...as one has to just cough out premiums and if the call do not click only the premium is lost.
Like say if some one buy a call option of Strelite Ind of say 1100 strike rate of call option at rs 10 premium...if Strelite do not move or go down then the loss would be 10 * lot size = amt , this amt will be lost and that is final.So here the loss is known...and hence it is a good avenue to play...
But in options people forget to look at one thing which I am now going to write.
In Options ,when one buy a Call Option of a perticular lot of a stock with perticular strike rate, there is one who is writing this call..and most probably the writer is an operator and no one else and he is the main person behind what will decide the price or premium of that stocks by the end of the vallan.Now it is clear that if he is writing call options, means selling us,at say 10, then if the premium goes down or remain there , only then he will earn and if the premium will go up he will be the looser.So what he will do, he will try his level best not to let the premium go up where he has written the call.
Now I have observed that upto 15 th on any month the premium will and can go up, but after that even though the stock goes up Premium do not go up so much.There investor get trapped.When people see that stock is going up and premium is low at 15th he buys a call option lot but then a correction comes and the premium gets so low that investor sell the lot thinking it can go even lower.
I have observed that premium almost gets eaten by the writer at the end of the Vallan...there are no buyers as tyhe vallan end comes nearer.If no buyers then your premium is gone..
So if anyone wants tom,play in Options category,he should getin early and get out before 15th .That is the trick.Never buy an option after 15th of any month.I am not saying that onecan't earn but most probably it is eaten up..unless the writer is caught in wrong foot.
feltra,I hope you will like my Options view as well...I have explained everything in detail as much as I can.....
and also hope all readers will be able to understand...
I still say to all of you, though I rarely play F&O , I keep track on all these,what happens when and how it is played.Though I have my Bank Job which takes away my whole day, but still I make it a point and learn from what I read...
Actually,I suggest or say rather Advice to all my readers that ONE SHOULD NEVER NEVER PLAY IN F&O....it is all loosing game be it Future or Options.Small investor should never never play in this sector and that too not even in partnership...

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Some view on Future & Options..........

I have been asked some decent queries from one of my beloved friend on F&O...Co-relation between scrips in F&O & to their price variations...I am pasting his queries and my answers which I wrote to him.Hope you all will be enlightened while reading it and be of some help...

Please provide me the info below....
1) Resources (papers, website links/ anything you can) for tracking the relationships between the two, if available.

A)Well, There is no such links......if it is there I don't know...

2) Trends where action might soon come and the basis on which you arrive at such assumptions.

A)Yes, here I can throw some light.

Well,MTNL,ITC, Hindalco,LIC Housing,HP, BP, IOC,ONGC , Arvind Mills,Patni Computers,Polaris,SRF Ltd,IDBI, IFCI , HOEC,Ispat, RNRL, RPL ,Suzlon,Sterlite Ind, Aptech, TTML etc etc , the list is long...can see enormous price rise within a year....

My reasoning:

These all stocks and many others can go up in a big big way....because someone is interested in all these stocks.Viz:Aptech ,Ispat,HOEC is favourites of RJ and some others are of RKD and others are of NS , KP's etc etc....

Now where I become bullish, is when a stock gets battered in big big way without a change in the fundamentals, like say,Patni..went down from 440 to 297,Wow! and still is around 330, means it was obvious that whole lot of investors getin F&O of Patni and opeartor just tanked in such a way that it went down for 150 points....Ok, now what I see is , it didn't come back quickly to 440 level and remained there for 3-4 months means operator is tiring investors and sending message that Patni is not going to run now , so get out of the counter.....as ssosn as the counter will get dry operator will take charge of Patni counter.....but there is no way to find that...ofcourse we do use to see that such and such counter is in F&O Curb..it means that 95% position is over in long and short position and no way one can buy new lots nor can one short....at CNBC and NDTV Profit channels...they use to give such datas in morning around 9.30 am and inbetween the market hrs...from that we can take a clue...

3) Website Links to scrips which go in & out of F&O and their impacts on addition or exclusion over short-term, mid & long-term.

A) thehindubusinessline also gives such data of F&O Curbs stocks almost daily,...no other site I have seen , but I can say has never tried it...as I almost do not play in F&O...But let me tell you that no stocks can go out of F&O list at any point of time.....yes, F&O Curb is possible,means coming out of Curb and going in to Curb,but Business channel always write in a confusing way...writes that eg. "Essar Oil is now out of F&O Curb"People think Essar Oil is now not in F&O....That is rubbish...once a stock is included in F&O it never goes out from that gr...Atleast I have not seen happening ...

4) Scrips where you think some of them underperformed and where you think the negative F&O returns might trigger positive outcomes in future due to either operators or other forces.

A)I have elaborated in my first answer....

5) Any other info you think pertinent to this subject.

A)If anyone is playing in F&O he must have DEEP Pockets...this is a MUST.....because I have marked that when market tanks by 5% , individual stocks tank by 10% and more and if you have no deep pockets to give the margin you are out of that stocks and that means you have booked loss and in F& O ,Loss is loss and you can't cover it....unless you buy another lot and it goes up and sell it higher....but it is not possible....It never happens...So the best way is to have a big purse of atleast Rs.10 lacs and if you have that only one should play in F&O otherwise not, that too in a very very disciplined manner..Never buy more then 1 lots if you are going to start with Rs.10 lacs as when market tanks , one would need that money to average that lot while one lot more and also to pay the margin.....Madhu this is very very important....10 lacs and only one lot to buy.....this is the ratio....because one will need to average even one more lot to buy if it further goes down...and again pay the margin..

Moreover the average game should be done only if a stock goes down by 50-70 rs in above 200-300 rs stocks and 10-15-20 in below 200 stocks.One can't go on averging at just rs 5 down or 20 down, otherwise he will end in holding big chunk of lots...and will make a hell of the situation.....

One more thing....he should have holding capacity to roll over his position for 2-3 months or even 4-5 months even if the price do not come....and is in loss....Means 10 lacs should not be needed for 6 months atleast...I have seen the price comes back to normal level and also goes up in big way if one holds stocks in F&O be it take 2-3 months and for that ,one has to roll over it every last thrusday or before 2-3 days..lot valan ends..

Madhu these are my 2 pennys on F&O ...I may have forget some points ..and If I recall I will write more on this...

I will only say here that all I have written are my observations and no book reading.....



Thursday, January 3, 2008

Sub-prime problem not as big as made out to be.......

Sub-prime problem not as big as made out to be

John M Berry / Mumbai January 02, 2008

As the US savings and loan crisis worsened in the 1980s, analysts tried to top each other’s estimates of the debacle’s cost to the federal government.

Much the same thing is happening now with losses linked to subprime mortgages, with figures of $300 billion to $400 billion being bandied about.

A more realistic amount is probably half or less than those exaggerated projections — say $150 billion. That’s hardly chicken feed, though not nearly enough to sink the US economy.

A loss of $150 billion would be less than 12 per cent of the approximately $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages outstanding. About $800 billion of those are adjustable-rate mortgages, the remainder fixed rate.

Subprime loans represent about an eighth of the value of all the US residential mortgages. In the S&L crisis, Charles A Bowsher, director of the Government Accountability Office, topped everyone’s estimate with $500 billion, though that dubiously included the cost of interest on money borrowed to cover actual losses of $160 billion. That’s about $260 billion in 2007 dollars.

This time insured depositors aren’t in the picture, so the federal government isn’t directly on the hook. But the government will share in losses by private lenders through reduced tax bills on their lowered income.

Now the primary threat to the economy isn’t coming from the losses on the mortgages themselves. It’s the capital squeeze on the many financial institutions that packaged so many subprime mortgages into so-called structured securities whose value is almost impossible to pin down.

That’s causing markets to value such securities as if the true losses on subprime mortgages were $300 billion to $400 billion.

Limited Losses
There are two reasons why the losses aren’t likely to be so large. First, the mortgages are backed by collateral, a house or condominium, and in a foreclosure a home typically retains significant value. When it is sold, the lender often will get 50 per cent to 60 per cent or more of the loan amount after foreclosure expenses.

Second, most subprime borrowers aren’t going to default. Suppose even one in four does and lenders recover somewhat more than half the mortgage amount. A fourth of $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages is $325 billion, and a 55 per cent recovery would mean a loss of about $145 billion.

To reach a $300 billion loss would require foreclosures on about half of all subprime mortgages with a 55 per cent recovery upon sale of the property. And a $400 billion loss would take about a 60 per cent foreclosure rate with recovery of about half the value from the sale.

What it means
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, in the third quarter, more than 16 per cent of all subprime mortgage payments were at least 30 days late, and less than 1 per cent of all mortgages involved homes in foreclosure.

What does that mean for the broader economy, particularly consumer spending?

As Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist for Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong, told an audience in Shanghai on December 12, less than you might think.

The economic repercussions of the housing bust and mortgage woes are limited to a great extent because less than half of American families own a home with a mortgage, he said.

Almost a third of all families rent their house or apartment, almost a fourth own and have no mortgage and the vast majority with a mortgage are current in their payments.

Consumer Spending
Even with about a tenth of all subprime mortgages now in foreclosure, only a small share of all American families — about 0.3 per cent — own a home in foreclosure, he said.

Maguire argued that, given the big increase in home values prior to 2006, the current decline in home prices isn’t likely to be a major drag on consumer spending.

It hasn’t been much of one so far. The Commerce Department said on December 21 that consumer spending rose a strong inflation- adjusted 0.5 per cent in November, and some analysts now expect it to increase at a 2.5 per cent annual rate for the quarter.

Comparisons in dollars of constant value between likely subprime losses and those incurred during the S&L crisis indicate the 1980s hit was significantly greater, though the current episode still has a long way to run.

One similarity between the two is that the real-estate problems are concentrated in a handful of states. Both times the two top trouble spots are California and Florida, states with long histories of real-estate speculation.

Where there are concentrations of foreclosures, the amount of money lenders will recover from the sales will be limited. In many other areas, however, the recovery may be considerably larger.

Many financial institutions dealing with securities backed by subprime mortgages have avoided fire sales at severely depressed values. Eventually, the true size of the underlying losses will show.

John M. Berry is a Bloomberg News columnist

Khandwala Sec....I recomended it here at around 72....news are following now to my call...

Here it is:
Khandwala eyes retail finance

BS Reporter / Mumbai January 03, 2008

Khandwala Securities (KSL), an institutional broking firm, on Wednesday announced its plans to enter the retail financial services segment.

At its board meeting here, a decision was taken to set up a subsidiary company for the proposed new business venture. The proposed venture will commence by the end of 2007-08, according to a company’s release.

Paresh J Khandwala, managing director, KSL, said: “With the penetration level of the retail investment participation in the country being under 5 per cent, the segment offers a opportunity for KSL to establish its presence in the fast-growing market segment.”

The proposed retail financial services business of KSL would provide a range of services to individual investors and include multiple business offerings from retail trading, wealth management to product and information distribution.

No wonder Khandwala Sec is in constant circuits since many days......

I am forced again to write

I am forced again to write that please do not ask me for targets again and again.
I almost never have written targets anywhere except some instances at mmb.
If one will ask mwe about targets I will not reply.
I have written many times, targets are hard to be given.When sensex is at 20k and Fund Managers are expecting of 15-20% return,if our stocks gives 40-50% return then also they are great...
If a stock has run up then also you all come out to ask me whether it is a buy...Friends that is too much an asking for me...It is for you to decide if it is a buy at that level...
Now asking me about stocks which ahs run up is becoming more frequent even though I have written that please don't ask me such question....
Hence if someone will ask me such question I will not entertain such queries....

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Year that was for Rajeev's Picks (2007)

I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at how his picks which he has recommended only in 2007 ( he might have recommended earlier at lower price but sitll i am taking only the price when he recommended this year) has performed over this year so as to get a feel of his accuracy and also to get one consolidated list for year 2007.
Note: This includes stocks recommended even in Nov and Dec so you will see huge number of stocks which hasnt become multibagger yet.

A special thanks to Feltra for giving the list in sorted order of ascending returns (cmp is based on 1/1/2008). According to Rajeev, you can still buy the stocks from beginning of the list which hasnt become a multibagger yet.

Scrip Reco CMP %chg
HOV Service 200 196 -2.00
ang auto 188 188 0.00
Crest Animation 140 145 3.57
Ontrack Systems 24 25 4.17
Ashim Investment 85 92 8.2
KIC Metaliks 72 78 8.33
sahyadri ind 70 77 10.00
Epic Energy 150 170 13.33
Vadilal Industries 70 80 14.29
Khaitan elec 117 138 17.95
Avery India 72 86 19.44
Prithvi Info 270 326 20.74
Tera Software 85 104 22.35
Gateway dsitriparks 130 160 23.08
assam cpy 45 56 24.44
cybele ind 28 35 25.00
RPG Cable 50 64 28.00
Khandwala security 80 104 30.00
Pittie Lamination 65 85 30.77
Taneja aerospace 170 224 31.76
SEMAC 210 280 33.33
abc india 55 74 34.55
Frontier Springs 20 27 35.00
Parsvanth developers 350 474 35.43
Raunaq Auto 28 38 35.71
Transgene Biotek 66 90 36.36
Austin Engg 107 146 36.45
Precision electronics 40 55 37.50
ITH 170 240 41.18
IFCI 68 96 41.18
spice jet 60 85 41.67
Netflier Finco 43 63 46.5
Cubex Tubing 70 105 50.00
Innocorp Ltd 40 60 50.00
TTML 42 63 50.00
pratibha industries 280 420 50.00
Ess Dee Aluminium 400 600 50.00
GMR Infra 160 245 53.13
Panoramic Universal 110 170 54.55
IDBI 110 170 54.55
Transport corporation of india 115 180 56.52
Vakrangee software 130 210 61.54
SAAG RR 40 66 65.00
Dr Agarwal Eye 40 66 65.00
Avantel Soft 60 100 66.67
flex foods 23 40 73.91
FCS Soft 80 140 75.00
stone india 130 230 76.92
shivani oil 350 620 77.14
omaxe 320 570 78.13
Nirlon 80 144 80.00
Kalindi Rail 310 560 80.65
Anjani Portland 35 64 82.86
Surya chakra power 25 46 84.00
Jain Studio 22 42 90.91
RTS Power 120 230 91.67
Garnet construction 52 100 92.31
Satvahan ispat 45 88 95.56
Patel Logistics 55 110 100.00
Bartronics 120 240 100.00
Bilpower 170 340 100.00
alfa transformer 70 147 110.00
Selan oil Exploration 80 180 125.00
Tata Power 670 1520 126.87
Kirloskar Ferrous 40 92 130.00
DMC international 20 46 130.00
IMP Power 130 300 130.77
Usha Martin 60 141 135.00
K Sera Sera 17 43 152.94
Jayaswals Neco 23 60 160.87
Kaverri Telecom 110 290 163.64
MSK Projects 65 178 173.85
Artson Engg 40 115 187.50
Rohit Ferro 40 115 187.50
JMC Project 170 500 194.12
Kerala Ayurveda 45 140 211.11
Marg Const 160 600 275.00
XL Telecom 132 515 290.15
Maestros Mediline 17 78 358.82

Wishing All A Happy New Year.........Sensex at 28k to 30k...

I Wish all a very very great Year in stock market and in life.

I wish all have very good health as Health is Wealth and nothing can be compared with Health...Maintain your health at any cost.....
I remember , we had a saying and I use to learn by heart in School that:
If Money is lost nothing is lost,
If Charector is lost something is lost,
But if Health is lost everything is lost...

So friends, remember to take care of your health...If one is going to have loads of money but if his health does'nt permits to use it,all those money are good for nothing....it is mere Stones.....

Well in the new year as it is already past 12 Midnight, I would like to write that, I am putting a target of 28k to 30k for Sensex and Nifty at 8800 to 9000 for this year Viz:2008...and also feels that the FII inflow will remain more then double ,then 2007, which was $16bn in 2007.....

I hope my prediction comes true and you all,including me will have fabulous year....In Stock market...
Just go through my list of 21 stocks which I have given.They will give good returns in the year to come....