Saturday, December 31, 2011

Logix Microsystem is coming out of hibernation?

Is it for real.Looks like it is.Some great investor like Ashish Dhavan invested in it are trying to turn the corners of Logix Microsystem.
Friends, What I do here is , I write what I read after analysing it and put my analysis here.Now it is upto readers to decide what they needs to do with it.
It is all luck.Stocks you buy do not run and stocks you thought of buying but were not able to buy runs.

Logix Microsys Plans To Hive Off; Fundraising On Cards?


Public-listed Logix is backed by Ashish Dhawan who has invested in his personal capacity.

Logix Microsystems is hiving off its online platform Carazoo that helps users buy and sell used and new cars. It will be turned into a separate subsidiary Carazoo Online Solutions Pvt Ltd, in a move that may allow the company to raise funds independently for expanding the business of the portal.

Currently, Carazoo is a business division of public-listed Logix Microsystems, a company backed by Passport Capital and also by Ashish Dhawan of ChrysCapital in his personal capacity.

The company’s board has approved the move in a meeting today. It now awaits a green signal from its shareholders.

Although details of the business operations of Carazoo could not be immediately verified, the parent firm had disclosed in the last annual report that income from the Indian portal Carazoo showed an impressive jump of 51 per cent in 2010-11, compared to the previous year. Incidentally, auto portals have been one of the e-com verticals attracting both M&As and money from institutional investors.

In September this year, CarSingh raised an undisclosed amount in its first round of funding from Seeders Venture Capital Pvt Ltd. Founded in January 2010, CarSingh claims to offer the largest selection of used cars inventory from dealers and private sellers, and says that it attracts more than two lakh users per month. It is now planning to expand its operations in used cars market across India, besides focusing on the after-sales market.

Before that, pre-owned vehicle sales portal MotorExchange raised $13 million in a third round of funding, led by Tiger Global Management. Also in 2010, European multimedia company Axel Springer AG and the India Today group acquired 70.4 per cent stake in Automotive Exchange Pvt Ltd (owner of the automotive classified ads portal Earlier in 2011, the MIH Group, a subsidiary of the South African media group Naspers, acquired majority stake in Gaadi Web Pvt Ltd that runs the auto classifieds site Other automotive portals in India include eBay Motors,, and

My Comments:
I remember I talked about Mega Soft sometime back and it has not moved much but I feel some accumalation has started in Mega Soft.
So, it is all patience ......

Monday, December 26, 2011

Lokpal..........2nd Round..Disappointed with Bachi Karkaria and Sobha Dey's view....

The question that is arising is Anna and his team are overdoing it?
I was watching to Bachi Karkaria and Shobha Dey , well known journalist, on TimesNow and I was actually disaapointed when I heard them.
Bachi Karkaria and Shobha Dey has same view and that is how Team Anna can claim that they are Civil Soceity and how they can ask for amendment?They say there are many Grs who are doing good things for the society , then how Anna and his team can say they are the only one government should hear?
But again coming back to those discussion, I ask Bachi Karkaria and Shobha Dey, without Anna Hazare would government had put the Lokpal Bill so quick?It was first decided to introduced 40 yrs back and nothing happened.
It is only and only because of Anna Hazare, that govermnet has to come out with the Bill and debate is taking place in parliamenet and that too as quick as in few months.The bill that never went on for 4 decades, is put in parliament within 8 months?Isn't that a MIRACLE?And due to whom that has happened?ANNA HAZARE. And now other civil socitey members are saying why only hear Anna and his team?There are others as well.But if Team Anna has brought good point like including class C&D under lokpal, bring CBI under Lokpal and if they are good points and they are actually good points as we all know that CBI under government and that means under corrupt polticians are good for nothing, then instead of supporting Anna Hazare and his team why making things difficult for INDIA and why help Government.

Now , if those so called civil society people feel that Anna's claim is wrong that only they need to be listened, then I don't think Anna Hazare is saying that.Anna Hazare keeps on saying that he wants STRONG LOKPAL BILL.That's it.............
If the demand of bringing CBI out of government clutches is wrong then come out and speak against team Anna.But why questioning Anna's cause?It is only and only because of Anna Hazare we are almost on the verge of passing the Strong Lokpal Bill and now when Lokpal Bill is almost done, why these learned people wants to argue on such things?Where were they for last 40 yrs when no Lokpal Bill was introduced?The reason is they were not popular enough to take a cause and bring crores of people under one roof and when Anna has done that , you people starts questioning him?
That is the charector I am talking of.That is the mentality I am talking of.We are ready to pull the legs of someone who is doing something good and will pull him/her so long that the entire cause becomes null and void.
No one can deny the fact that only due to Anna, Congress has to bend and bring the Lokpal bill on table in 8 months.The thing which never done for 40 years,  four decades, government has to do it in 8 months! And now some civil society groups are taking loggerheads with Anna and his team?
Actually by doing so, these people are playing in the hand of government knowingly or unknowningly.......Jane anjane ye log government ke hath main khel rahe hai......instead of making Anna hands stronger, they are unfortunately working for government.
If Anna would have not kept the pressure , governmnet would never have acted on bringing the Lokpal Bill this quick or I can say rather it would never had come for another 4 decades untill another Anna Hazare comes out.
What Anna Hazare is doing is keeping the pressure buildup constantly to move ahead with lokpal Bill otherwise just a day off not talking on Lokpal and this corrupt politicians will again derail any such move for Lokpal Bill to get presented in parliament and that is the correct way to do it with corrupt politicians anywhere in world.
Instead of discussing what needs to be done and included in Lokpal Bill, noted journalist like Bachi Karkarkia,Sobha Dey speaks what who is Anna and questions his integrity is really a very disturbing scenario from the most qualified and known to be the most broadminded media people of India.I had great regards for these two woman media person.I felt they really understand the situation and speak accordingly but when I saw both of them speaking on Anna and his team , I really was disappointed.Is this the same Bachi Karkaria who come out to fight against anything wrong?Same Sobha Dey who takes side for any discriminating happening in the society?
What has happened to them?I can understand anyone else speaking against Anna not atleast these two.The reason is I have always put woman on much higher level then men when a talk of corruption or discrimantion in society take place.They always come instantly to take side of anything wrong done then how people like Bachi Karkaria and Sobha Dey argue in such a way?

Had they forget the real CAUSE? CORRUPTION!

When Anna Hazare started his fast first time in last April somewhere around and told goverment to work on strong Lokpal Bill and gave them time, I was also not sure whether it will happen or not.The tempo needs to remain and that Anna Hazare and his team has done successfully.In all those months Bachi Karkaria and Sobha Dey or for that matter any party of civil gr could have talked with Anna Hazare team member and joined them.But these civil society people were also not sure whether Anna Hazare will be able to create that much pressure lateron on government to force them introducing Lokpal bill but Anna Hazare and his team did it and now they aree talking all rubbish like Anna Hazare should not dictate things, who is Anna Hazare , Anna Hazare is blackmailing parliament, what Anna is doing is not democratic ..etc etc........
Anna's team consist of very wellknown people and very well educated people who knows the constitution and things like that and these are the poeple who has drafted the bill and instead of joing with Team Anna and making the movement stronger what these celebrties like Sobha Dey , Bachi Karkaria , Vinod Mehta of Out look are doing?
Join  the crusade..........THE WAY ANNA AND HIS TEAM ARE DOING THINGS OR KEEPING PRESSURE UP ON GOVERNMENT IS THE ONLY WAY TO DO IT.......Once there is a division, government will have reason to say to people that we have to listen all civil groups and the take decision.Don't make Anna Hazare hand weak....join with Anna Hazare, only he can do it.....NOONE  WAS  ABLE  TO DO  IT FOR 40 YEARS says that only Anna Hazare was/is able to do it........bringing in strong Lokpal Bill.
This is not the way to do things, this is a democratic country , parliament is not say these words.The days are gone for such thinking........
Instead of fighting for the CAUSE,  the well-learned and pseudo journalist and human righterian has started debating what is wrong and what is right way to do?
For last 40 years , with same sense of thinking, like whether this is the right way to do or not?, Lokpal Bill never get introduced and when Anna Hazare and his team are trying to do things which will open a new milestone in the HISTORY OF INDIA , punishing corrupt politicians and beuracreates , why not join them instead of arguging whether the way Anna is doing is the RIGHTY WAY or WRONG WAY  to do it?
Just imagine a party like congress who has ruled most part of the independence, while keep saying , Who is Anna, or this is not the democratic way etc etc......they have to introduce the bill , that says that Anna's way is democratic otherwise can one imagine what the governmnet can do to Anna and his team?We all kow what congress did to Arvind Kejrewa and Kiran Bedi etc....
According to me, the way ANNA is doing , pressuring government is the RIGHT WAY TO DO THINGS  otherwise let me tell you, this movement can and will end in a BIG FIASCO.......
I have heard, Digvijay singh, Manish Tiwari, Kapil Sibal, Pranab Roy, Lalu Yadav saying , who is Anna?Decisions are not taken on streets or at Jantar Mantar.
Ok...fine.... then why are you bringing the Lokpal Bill so quickly?Why are you  listening Anna Hazare and his team?Is it so that after Apr 2011, Congress the ruling party decided to bring the Lokpal Bill on their own?Was that a selfconscious decision for  GOOD OR BETTERMENT OF PEOPLE OF INDIA?SUDDENLY THE GOVERNMENT STARTED TO THINK ON LOKPAL?
It is a fact that due and only due to Anna Hazare, the Lokpal Bill has been introduced and the pressure he and his team has kept is creating jitters in camp of government.
These media people and other Civil society gr are talking of arrogance of Anna Hazare and we also agree with them.Don't we?
Let me ask one question to you all.
We the people of India never QUESTIONED  a police arrogance when he shows us all rules and regulations , have you seen his face?He looks ominous but as soon as you show him a note of Rs 50 or Rs 100 he will laugh and let you go.
I have seen a  police comstable beating a poor little girl just recently on TV ,who stoled Rs 280 like anything.Who gave them the permission to beat a poor girl who stole Rs 280?So is it so, that politicinas who makes thousands of crores go scot free and a poor girl who stole something worth Rs 280 is taken to task?Is this the system we are talking?
Taking bribe or making scam is lesser evil then stealing food or something like that worth Rs 300?
I ask this question to everyone here.Doesn't your blood boil for that?See how our mind has become.We take these thing normal and has taken for granted what our ploiticians are doing.It is like we have already given permission to all politicians to do whatever they like but if someone else do something then we come out with big Questionarie...........
And now we are talking of Anna Hazare arrogance?Can't we able to see Congress arrogance?Can't we see all polticinas arrogance?Can't we see beurocrates arrogance?Can't we see Havaldar's, PI or PSI  arrogance ?
What we are talking? .......I feel laughing or taking pity of how our mind has become.......

Welldone Anna Hazare.....I am with you.....

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Merry Christmas to all my readers......

On the eve of Christmas I take an opportunity to write stocks including A gr stocks which looks good to me.
I hope readers will have a good look at them and then decide what to do......

1) Siemens Ltd
2) ABB Ltd
3) Bharat Forge Ltd
4)L&T Ltd
5)Sesa Goa Ltd
6) Petronet LNG Ltd
7) Central Bank of India Ltd
8)Coal India Ltd
9)Oil India Ltd
10)Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd

Now B gr :
1) KPIT Ltd
2)Selan Exploration Ltd
3)India Glycols Ltd
4)La Opala RG Ltd
5) IFB Ind Ltd
6)Vadilal Ltd
7)TRF Ltd
8)Jubilant Ind
9)Jindal Drilling Ltd
10)IFB Agro Ltd
11)Pitti Laminations Ltd
12)Pondy Oxide Ltd
13)Heritage Foods Ltd
14)Vishnu Chem Ltd
15)Sree Rayal sema Hi-Strength Hypo Ltd
16) R S Software Ltd

Dark horses:
1) GNRL Ltd
2) Lesha Ind
3)Kreon Fin Ltd
4)8 K Miles Ltd

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Philanthropic activity..........

I know I am again today going to write on such a subject where there will be lots and lots of different type of opinions.
These are absolutely my views .....

I read today the below news which is pasted here and link given as well under it:

Meet Charles Feeney, Cornell's $350 Million Donor

The New York Times has unmasked 80-year-old Cornell alum Charles F. Feeney as the anonymous donor who gave the school a $350 million donation to construct a new technology-based satellite campus on Roosevelt Island in New York City. Officials at The Atlantic Philanthropies, the foundation started by Feeney in 1982, confirmed to the paper last night that he was the one who made the gift for the project, which is expected to generate an extra $1.4 billion in tax revenue for the city, plus 20,000 construction jobs and as many as 30,000 new jobs once the facility is up and running.

Related: Bloomberg Chooses Cornell to Make New York a Silicon Valley 2.0

Which leads to the inevitable question: who is this guy? To begin with, he's a very rich guy. He co-founded Duty Free Shoppers Group in the early 1960s, and sold his stake in the company to LVMH Moet Hennessy-Louis Vuitton for $2.47 billion in 1996. At the time, The Times noted Feeney's "net worth far exceeds the $975 million estimated by Forbes magazine." After the sale, The Times reported estimated that the proceeds, paired with other funds Feeney turned over to the foundation "left the charity with $3.5 billion, even after the $610 million that has already been distributed to charities."

Related: Strauss-Kahn Pins Defense on Datebook, Claim of Consent

To that point, he'd be donating anonymously, but it was Judith Miller of The New York Times who coaxed Feeney into discussing his donations with a member of the press for the first time in 1997, though he wouldn't pose for a picture.

Related: Bloggers Unite Against Drunken Puppy Shopping

In adidition to donating to universities and hospitals, Feeney told Miller that he's also made personal contributions to Sinn Fein, the IRA's political arm, worth up to $280,000, which made him the organization's biggest American donor (Feeny holds dual citizenship.) As of 1997, the foundation's largest grant was $30 million, a figure that Feeney has dwarfed in recent years. In 2009, he gave $125 million to build a new medical center for the University of California-San Francisco that would treat women, children, and cancer patients. Over the course of the last decade, he's given more than €46m to the University of Limerick in Ireland. Hs total donations for Cornell over the years -- not counting the latest $350 hit -- exceed $600 million.

Related: Inside the Miraculous Math of the 9/11 Memorial

Perhaps not surprisingly, he took the "Giving Pledge" created by Bill and Melinda Gates earlier this year, vowing to give away everything in the Atlantic Properties coffers by 2020. As Dealbook noted at the time, the rapid timetable illustrates Feeney's specific brand of philanthropy, which eschews trusts and foundations for what he calls "giving while living," in which the philanthropist's goal is to become flat broke before his own death.

Related: Wall Street Occupiers Fear Drummers Will Be Their Undoing

Nearly every profile makes note of how unimpressed Feeney is with what his wealth can buy him, noting that he flies coach, wears a $15 watch, and doesn't own a house or a car. When Miller asked him why he decided to give everything away, Feeney replied, "I simply decided I had enough money."

In 2007, when The New York Times convinced him to sit for a profile again, Jim Dwyer said, not inaccurately, that Feeney was "what Donald Trump would be if he led his life backward."
My Views:
Whenever I read such type of news I get disturbed.Disturbed in the sense that why that is not happening in India?What is wrong with us?We have old heritage of 5000 years and we have Vedas, Upnishad, Puranas , Ramayana , Mahabharat and above all which is known and globally acclaimed Bhagvad Gita.
We have excellent charectors like Lord Rama, Lord Krishna depicted in our ages old scripture and we have read them and we even give examples of them.
Then why there is no rich and wealthy man coming out to give everything he has owned and give it back to the society?
Why we are seeing Americans doing that?Are they mad?Are they insane?Are they trying to show to the world how much they are great?
Why it is not happening in our country? Why we Indians wants more and more money?Why we are not satisfied and we come to the conclusion that now it is time to give it back from where we got it?
We keep boasting about our sculpture and thousand of years old heritage but is that making any sense?
It seems like that , anywhere ,we have never been taught to be patriot.These thousands of years old heritage has not taught us to be patriot.We, Indians are missing it.
We are not satisfied with what we have.We want more and more.We want more power, we want more money and we want to show to the relatives and friends what we have got and we want to be proud of it.We don't care for anyone except us.We don't have any gratitude for someone who has helped us.We are SELFCENTERED.We just think of ourselves.For everything we do, " I" comes first.
Why we have no WB's, why we have no Bill Gates, why we have no Charles Fenny? and what we need to see is , WB lives in his decades old house.He has not build a house like Mukesh Ambani or Laxmi Mittal,Charles Fenny has no car, he wear a $15 cost watch.So it is not that he spend everything all his life and after getting satisfied he came out to do philanthropic activities.
These all people never read Bhagvad Gita, never read Vedas, Upnishad or Poranas and still they donates and donates everything they earned in their life.
 It is not easy to donates eveything one has earned in life and perticularly when it is billions of dollars.Just imagine ,if we have to give a present we will think many times how much it will cost,if we have to help someone we will see whether he will be able to pay us back and if not whether he will be of any help in future.Then how these Americans whom we call the most cunning fellow able to do that for their country?
Just try to give someone something without expecting anything.Just try it.It is not possible.We are very narrow minded.We can't give anything to anyone.We have not learned to give.Our heart is too small to do that.Ham bolte rehte hai, dil bada hona chahiye lekin asal main hum sirf bolte hai....doosro ko kehne ke liye.......lekin hamara dil bada nahi hai......main to tumhari bat karta tha...meri are experts in giving advice......Kis ko kya karna chahiye, kya nahi karna chahiye , ye sab hum batete hai doosron ko lekin hum apni bat nahi karte , ki hamein kya karna hai ya karna chaahiye tha........we are always ready to show others mistake but never look at what we have done......
It seems that there is something missing in our centuries old books.
I donno but whenever I read such news I get disturbed.Why it is not happening in India?
The thought doesn't come to us to help others.We do not take pity of anyone else. We are not concerned about the trouble of our countryman.We are not troubled to see someone going through pain.Actually we are opposite of that nature.We become happy when someone is in pain.If someone lose something we become happy.Doosre ke dukh se ham ko mann ki shanti milti hai.
If someone cars gets broke we become happy and that is the reason we put a scratch on someone car.We don't like our neighbour or relatives remain happy.If they are happy we are unhappy.
What is this?Ye kya hai?Is ko kis type ki mentality kahenge?What type of mentality we will call it?
We never think of people who are suffering.Suffering from various desiese like Cancer etc and hence we do not donate.Tears do not come out from our eyes.Ours eyes has dried.No tears left.We have become ruthless.
Something somewhere is wrong.We only blame others.We keep fighting for our selves.We never think of fighting for others.
I know I have talked on this subject many times and many may even dislike it but I can't resist myself writing this and hence I have written.Those who feel to ignore this post  need to do it.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Dear Friends,
I again got a request from my ardent follower and reader mr OM that bottom is near and I need to hurry up for giving my list of probables stocks which needs to be looked upon.

I feel that , every reader is eager to read my picks and hence I feel that I need to write what I am thinking of the market and hence giving a reply here on front page.:
I do not boast that I am good or a champion nor I feel I am good enough to see where the market is going  but whatever I read and understand , I am putting it here.
I appreciate your( all my readers) faith you have put on me and I promise that I will never do anything purposefully to misguide you all which I have been doing since the inception of this blog.I have stick to being honest and fair at any jucture of market or for that matter any time I have written anything on any subject....

Here is my reply:

Have faith in me.Market is not going to runaway.

It has a long to go for going up.

Congress has tabled the food subsidy bill for poor and that is as big as 1 lac cr and that will not be easy to digest by the market when fiscal deficit is going up.

We are not on a firm footing at all.

It is all gimmicks by Congress and they have kept CBI out of perview of Lokpal and that makes no sense according to me as I agree with the Anna Hazare team.

There are other clauses in bill tabled by Congress which are debatable.Congress is trying to divide and rule.I hope u understand what I am trying to say here.

With all these issues goling on , it is obvious that economics progress will be on back burner and in that case our GDP will take a beating and it can lower to 6 or even 5%.

Real Estate property scenario is not at all looking good and flats and commercial construction like offices etc are lying unsold and that is taking toll on Real Estate Cos and hence there is a huge danger of NPA's for bank and when such things happens , we have a problem like USA, where the banking sector is in danger as the NPA's will increase and bank will have to bear the brunt and Banks will have to make provision for NPA's which will be in huge amt.....

 I read somewhere that RJ is selling his stake of 37% in Aptech for 600 cr through auction and that shows that RJ is also in need of the money.That says everything..........

Don't be in panic to buy anything.I maybe wrong but that is what I am seeing....Market will give ample time to buy.Shankar Sharma has said many times that Ril Ind fair value is at 500-550 and L&T fair value is 700-750 and that will come and may even go down more  then that.
If infaltion is not tamed, if rate cut  do not happen, if IIP will have a negative growth , if economics reforms are taking back seat then how market will go up, I don't understand?
 With the Anna Hazare movement going to take a big place , as Congress has kept CBI out of  Lokpal, I see how Congress would think anything other then that......
Wait for the first rate cut.When RBI decides to cut back the rate to stimulate the growth.
The first rate cut will be of only .25 point basis and it will take many months for those rate coming back to what we saw 1 yr back .Each and every time there will be a 25 basis rate cut which will very slowly increase the liquidity in our system and hence I feel that even if rate cut happens in January 2012, still it will be a long way to go.
Don't get deceived if market goes up in morning can come down heavily at the end.....
Rest all LUCK.......

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Market making new lows............

Dear Friends,
It is all same.We say, market making new lows or market making lower
That makes same meaning.
I have already written that 3900 is in offing and it looks like it will come.Untill inflation don't come down, untill Int rate do not get cut again,untill IIP nos start coming good , I feel that we are not going to see any good time in our market and that is why I feel that 3900 will come and untill it do not come, all rally should be considered as a relief rally or shortcovering.In bear market , all down targets gets achieved because everyone wants to sell and save money and hence all lower targets gets achieved.
Our market going down is now on reason which has come on surface domestically.The inflation,rate cut,Manufacturing slow down, Real Estate problem, etc etcEven the reason of EU has found some respite and still our market is going down which says that the problem is domestic and not global for our market.
FII has lost confidence in our economy and with rupee becoming cheaper against dollar which made a high of 53.70 against dollar, our import bills are soaring high.Fiscal deficit is going wayward, we are not able to control it.Even though in real terms as read by me, it should be 70 against dollar if we are still good but if India is growing then we need to see rupee much stronger.
If USA is doing bad, if EU are doing bad, if West is doing bad, then why rupee is falling.Which economics learning says so?Is there something we don't understand why rupee is falling so badly?Is government doing it purposefully ?
And then the scams.
Well, friends this will passon and happy days will come but we will have to pass through the pain and that is a part of market.
I have completed reading "Confessions of a Wall Street Insider" by C C Hazard as written in one of my post titled " The Luck Factor" by M C Gunther.
That is an excellent book written around 1970's and it is worth reading.It shows all  insideout and how things are manouvered in stock market.It exposed all term, fundamentals, Technicals,good management, sales and all.
I use to read books and I like reading books on various subjects and I can read them sitting hours togather.One may call me a voracious reader. Someone wrote" Books are your real friends" and looks like it is true.Books are your really your real friends.I was an avid reader and looks like my habit of reading books I have got it back, for whatever reason.
Reading makes you think.It makes you think what is right and what is wrong.Reading expands ones horizen of thinking.One learns something while reading.Reading is knowledge and knowledge is power.It pays somewhere.Reading shows us the way of reasoning.
Coming back to the market, I feel that more downside is left and untill RBI don't start cutting rate back, we are not going to see market making a comeback soon.
There are no fundamentals......nothing like funda ka is market and that's it.
All due diligence , all knowing what Co is doing, how is the management, sales, profit, CARG, RONW everything goes haywire when market starts going down.
I somewhere read that 60% of 21k is 12600 and so that will be a great support to look at.
When market went down in 2008, we touched 8000 and that is 40% of 21k .So either it is 60% of 21k , i.e is 12600 or we take out 12600 from 21k and that is 7400 or 8k, no one knows.
But if global situation stabilizes and our politicians start thinking of our country and start doing on that front our market will start making a comeback.
That is why I always use to write, invest those money which you will not need for 5 yrs.Don't borrow.
Make sure one have enough money to run the house.It is true for business as well.Before taking any advances or loans , which we call it a DEBT, make sure you will be able to pay Interest every month.Make sure your business is such that you have no problem in doing so.Paying Int should not become such a big issue that you have no money left to run your house. It should never happen that one have to borrow to pay interest and if that happens then it is not a good thinking or one can say you have erred and you are not a good businessman .That is the worst case scenario.That should never happen.It is a simple rule that don't try to stretch your leg so long that it goes out of your bedsheet.Jitni chaddar hai utna hi pair bahar nikaliye.That is the bottomline.Taking a calculative risk is good but at the same time one should  be also able to return back once understood that you have make a mistake.Any steps which rectify your mistake is always a good step taken.Nothing wrong to confess anything done wrong.Don't be adamant.Don't become stubborn.
Learn to accept.Learn to accept mistakes.That will go long way in your life.Will bring peace of mind as well.
One should be able to sleep soundly at night.At the end of the day nothing should huant us.Nothing should make us feel guilty.Listen to your heart.
I have written umpteen times, it is not easy to make money in stock market.See how much it is coming true.For all investors these is a lesson one should be learning.
Be on the sidelines.Don't average or buy anything now.That is what I feel.One may take their own decision.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Dev Anand......An era has ended.....

That is True.Era has ended with passing away of Dev Anand .Though after Des Pardes Dev Anand was not able to give any hit films, the work done by him and his Nav ketan banner is immense.
There was a triplet, Dilip,Raj and Dev.All had their own way to work.But they rule the Bollywood untill mid sixties and Dev still remained as an actor untill mid seventies.
My most favourite film is "Guide".I don't know how many times I have seen and I never get tired.It always shows me something different whenever I see it.A person supporting a woman desire,her own liking and to support her he lose his best friend, he loses his mother , and while doing it he is still not in love but gradually both Rosy and Raju fell in love with eachother and then Rosy's husband comes to meet her and the trouble starts from there.If Rosy would have desired she would have saved her mentor and lover Raju, who has sacrificed everything for her , but she decided against it (During that part the songs that have been picturised are excellent.)and Raju goes to jail for forgery and then the salvation of Soul part comes in the end .

Actually all the songs that were picturised were excellent.S D Burman was at his best.
Vijay Anand( fondly known as Goldie) was brilliant.RK Narayan story was best .Everything was best.Even Dev Anand himself was excellent in acting.If one can observe , one will not see the Dev Anand style of moving the hand or shoulder in one manner he use to do.His head remains steady.His hand remains steady .His shoulder remains steady.Dev Anand remains steady in whole picture.....That was a Touch of Vijay Anand , the Director.He was brilliant.
Some of  Goldies Hits are Tesri Manzil , Johny Mera Nam, Blackmail( Dharm, Rakhee) etc.....
But since 1949 The Nav Ketan banner gave 18 hits films and tha is record in its own.

Dev Anand was in Love with Zenat and at that time Dev Anand was 55 and Zenat was 27.Does love has any boundries?

Read on:

Excerpts from his autobiography reveal his obsession with the sex bomb, and how Raj Kapoor spoilt it one night

Zeenat and I started being linked with each other in the magazines and newspapers that people hungry for gossip love to read. For, while she was the adorable painting that they loved to watch, admire and emulate, I was the painter who had etched that painting. The colours were mine as was the finished drawing on the canvas. While she as a person was God’s creation, her image was of my making, and together we became inseparable in the public eye.
Whenever and wherever she was talked about glowingly, I loved it; and whenever and wherever I was discussed in the same vein, she was jubilant. In the subconscious, we had become emotionally attached to each other. At the silver jubilee celebration of Hare Rama Hare Krishna at a theatre in Calcutta, as Usha Uthup, the famous pop singer, sang the ‘Dum maro dum’ number on stage and reached the crescendo of her rendering, she pulled Zeenat, who was sitting in the audience, on stage; Zeenat in turn pulled me on stage too, so that together we could sing along with Usha. The audience in a moment of spontaneity also jumped up on stage and the song became a chorus of over a hundred voices. The maddened crowds picked Zeenat up on their shoulders, raising her heavenwards. I felt proud of her, and yet, at the same time, I felt a stab of jealousy; of possessiveness as well.
How could they own her in that way? She was my prized possession! I knew it was a stupid thought on my part, but I couldn’t help it.   ( That exactly happens when one is madly in love with someone,  one starts thinking stupidly and here you have a celebrity and level headed person like Dev Anand doing 
A couple of years later, after the premiere of Ishq Ishq Ishq at Metro cinema, Raj Kapoor kissed Zeenat in full view of the invited audience, congratulating her for her sparkling performance in the film. That must have made her evening all the more sparkling. Again I felt proud of her, as much as I admired Raj Kapoor for his honest and spontaneous reaction. Complimenting her was indirectly complimenting her mentor, and I inwardly saluted my contemporary film-maker for his sound judgement. Yet, I was jealous of him for making advances on what I considered my sole possession, my discovery, my leading lady, and desiring her with a kiss. Time moved on. Suddenly, one day, I felt I was desperately in love with Zeenat—and wanted to say so to her! To make a honest confession, at a very special, exclusive place meant for romance. I chose the Rendezvous at the Taj, on the top of the city, where we had dined together once earlier.
No setting could be more appropriate, I thought, than a quiet candlelit table in the corner, the candle throwing its gleam on Zeenat’s face, just as the glow of her cigarette-lighter had lit up her face when I first met her. The dimmed lights of the city below, shining out of the darkness, would certainly light up the romance of the moment.
I called her up to say, ‘Zeenie, I want to go out on a date with you tonight.’
‘But aren’t we already going together to a party tonight?’ she asked me.
‘Of course we are. But let’s just go there only for a brief while, say Hi to the gathering, and then quickly disappear!’ It was an order, but very lovingly conveyed.
She was quiet.
‘H-e-ll-o!’ I said.
‘Yes, I am listening.’
‘Is that a date?’ I asked.
‘If you so desire. See you then!’ And she hung up.
I picked her up. Together we went to the party. It was on in full force. The first person who greeted Zeenat from a distance was a drunken Raj Kapoor, with a gallant drawl, ‘There she is!’ He threw his arms around her exuberantly.
This suddenly struck me as a little too familiar. And the way she reciprocated his embrace seemed much more than just polite and courteous. She quickly bent down to touch his feet, and then Romancing With Life gave me an embarrassed look. Raj grasped my hand in a very tightgrip, like never before, as if trying to make amends for some wrong he had done, suddenly overflowing with affection.
A hint of suspicion crossed my mind. A couple of days earlier, a rumour had been floating around that Zeenat had gone to Raj’s studio for a screen test for the main role in his new movie Satyam Shivam Sundaram. The hearsay now started ringing true. My heart was bleeding.
‘You are breaking your promise,’ Raj was now telling Zeenat in his drunken joviality, ‘that you will always be seen by me only in a white sari!’

More embarrassment was writ large on her face, and Zeenat was not the same Zeenat for me any more. My heart broke into pieces. I wanted to leave the party at once and go off somewhere alone, to be just by myself, so that I could swallow the humiliation thrust on my ego.

But a struggle within me transformed itself into a ‘to-hell-withit- all’ attitude, and prompted me to say goodbye to a relationship which, though it had been non-committal emotionally on both sides, had been honest all the same. There was no space in it for professional dishonesty.
The painting I had made of her started showing signs of cracking.

‘How long do you intend staying here, Zeenat?’ I asked her.

She looked at Raj, as if seeking his permission to leave.

‘Let her stay here, Dev—and you too—enjoy!’ he said in a drunken drawl.

‘By all means,’ I said. ‘Enjoy, Zeenat. Call me up later, when you feel like it!’

‘But aren’t we suppose to be going to the other place together?’ she casually asked.

‘Doesn’t matter!’ I said.

The rendezvous had already lost all meaning in my mind. I sneaked out of the place, quietly apologizing to the host. The evening delivered a blow to my personality, and my dominating spirit. I had decided on the spur of the moment to tell Zeenat for the first time how much I loved her. And that there was an idea in my mind of another story that would put her on a pedestal as never before, the highest so far. But that was never to be. And so be it! I quickly detached myself, convincing myself that I had blundered, taking too many things for granted.
( That is a blunder a person does , taking for granted and actually that is never the case, the opposite sex has no intentions like that......but when someone is madly in love with someone, that happens and the best thing is what Dev Anand did, coming out of it as early as possible)
There was no need for me to let any rancour germinate in my mind against Zeenat.

I had prepared her for the world, and she was free to go into the arms of anyone who would help her further her ambitious dreams. A group of chanting devotees was passing by my car. I sat listening to the sound of cymbals and bells.

Hare Krishna Hare Krishna

Krishna Krishna Hare Hare

Hare Ram Hare Ram

Ram Ram Hare Hare

I closed my eyes. Zeenat still remained beautiful in my eyes, with an honest soul. And Raj a passionate film-maker. I opened my eyes. A streak of lightning seemed to flash across my mind and inspired a new thought. I started pursuing it. A new chapter was thrown open before me, its first pages slowly unfolding.

The idea of a new film was coming slowly into focus.

Romancing with Life: An Autobiography by Dev Anand has been published by Viking/Penguin

I will only rhym the line of his song from HumDono:

"Main Zindagi ka sath nibhata chala gaya, har fikr ko dhuen main udata chala gaya...."

Enjoy at YouTube......

Dev Anand himself has confessed in one of his recent interview at TimesNow that this song gave him a new dimension of looking at LIFE......

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Does India Know This?

Digging into China’s nuclear tunnels

By William Wan
The Washington Post – 23 hrs agoGeorgetown University's Professor Phillip A. Karber spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. (The Washington Post …more ) less

Share81EmailPrintThe Chinese have called it their “Underground Great Wall” — a vast network of tunnels designed to hide their country’s increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear arsenal.

For the past three years, a small band of obsessively dedicated students at Georgetown University has called it something else: homework.

Led by their hard-charging professor, a former top Pentagon official, they have translated hundreds of documents, combed through satellite imagery, obtained restricted Chinese military documents and waded through hundreds of gigabytes of online data.

The result of their effort? The largest body of public knowledge about thousands of miles of tunnels dug by the Second Artillery Corps, a secretive branch of the Chinese military in charge of protecting and deploying its ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads.

The study is yet to be released, but already it has sparked a congressional hearing and been circulated among top officials in the Pentagon, including the Air Force vice chief of staff.

Most of the attention has focused on the 363-page study’s provocative conclusion — that China’s nuclear arsenal could be many times larger than the well-established estimates of arms-control experts.

(Graphic: Evidence of China’s nuclear storage system)
“It’s not quite a bombshell, but those thoughts and estimates are being checked against what people think they know based on classified information,” said a Defense Department strategist who would discuss the study only on the condition of anonymity.
The study’s critics, however, have questioned the unorthodox Internet-based research of the students, who drew from sources as disparate as Google Earth, blogs, military journals and, perhaps most startlingly, a fictionalized TV docudrama about Chinese artillery soldiers — the rough equivalent of watching Fox’s TV show “24” for insights into U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
But the strongest condemnation has come from nonproliferation experts who worry that the study could fuel arguments for maintaining nuclear weapons in an era when efforts are being made to reduce the world’s post-Cold War stockpiles.

Beyond its impact in the policy world, the project has made a profound mark on the students — including some who have since graduated and taken research jobs with the Defense Department and Congress.

“I don’t even want to know how many hours I spent on it,” said Nick Yarosh, 22, an international politics senior at Georgetown. “But you ask people what they did in college, most just say I took this class, I was in this club. I can say I spent it reading Chinese nuclear strategy and Second Artillery manuals. For a nerd like me, that really means something.”

For students, an obsession
The students’ professor, Phillip A. Karber, 65, had spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But it was his early work in defense that cemented his reputation, when he led an elite research team created by Henry Kissinger, who was then the national security adviser, to probe the weaknesses of Soviet forces.
Karber prided himself on recruiting the best intelligence analysts in the government. “You didn’t just want the highest-ranking or brightest guys, you wanted the ones who were hungry,” he said.

In 2008, Karber was volunteering on a committee for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a Pentagon agency charged with countering weapons of mass destruction.

After a devastating earthquake struck Sichuan province, the chairman of Karber’s committee noticed Chinese news accounts reporting that thousands of radiation technicians were rushing to the region. Then came pictures of strangely collapsed hills and speculation that the caved-in tunnels in the area had held nuclear weapons.
Find out what’s going on, the chairman asked Karber, who began looking for analysts again — this time among his students at Georgetown.
The first inductees came from his arms-control classes. Each semester, he set aside a day to show them tantalizing videos and documents he had begun gathering on the tunnels. Then he concluded with a simple question: What do you think it means?

“The fact that there were no answers to that really got to me,” said former student Dustin Walker, 22. “It started out like any other class, tests on this day or that, but people kept coming back, even after graduation. . . . We spent hours on our own outside of class on this stuff.”

The students worked in their dorms translating military texts. They skipped movie nights for marathon sessions reviewing TV clips of missiles being moved from one tunnel structure to another. While their friends read Shakespeare, they gathered in the library to war-game worst-case scenarios of a Chinese nuclear strike on the United States.

Over time, the team grew from a handful of contributors to roughly two dozen. Most spent their time studying the subterranean activities of the Second Artillery Corps.

While the tunnels’ existence was something of an open secret among the handful of experts studying China’s nuclear arms, almost no papers or public reports on the structures existed.

So the students turned to publicly available Chinese sources — military journals, local news reports and online photos posted by Chinese citizens. It helped that China’s famously secretive military was beginning to release more information, driven by its leaders’ eagerness to show off China’s growing power to its citizens.
The Internet also generated a raft of leads: new military forums, blogs and once-obscure local TV reports now posted on the Chinese equivalents of YouTube. Strategic string searches even allowed the students to get behind some military Web sites and download documents such as syllabuses taught at China’s military academies.
Drudgery and discoveries
The main problem was the sheer amount of translation required.
Each semester, Karber managed to recruit only one or two Chinese-speaking students. So the team assembled a makeshift system to scan images of the books and documents they found. Using text-capture software, they converted those pictures into Chinese characters, which were fed into translation software to produce crude English versions. From those, they highlighted key passages for finer translation by the Chinese speakers.
The downside was the drudgery — hours feeding pages into the scanner. The upside was that after three years, the students had compiled a searchable database of more than 1.4 million words on the Second Artillery and its tunnels.
By combining everything they found in the journals, video clips, satellite imagery and photos, they were able to triangulate the location of several tunnel structures, with a rough idea of what types of missiles were stored in each.
Their work also yielded smaller revelations: how the missiles were kept mobile and transported from structure to structure, as well as tantalizing images and accounts of a “missile train” and disguised passenger rail cars to move China’s long-range missiles.

To facilitate the work, Karber set up research rooms for the students at his home in Great Falls. He bought Apple computers and large flat-screen monitors for their video work and obtained small research grants for those who wanted to work through the summer. When work ran late, many crashed in his basement’s spare room.
“I got fat working on this thing because I didn’t go to the gym anymore. It was that intense,” said Yarosh, who has continued on the project this year not for credit but purely as a hobby. “It’s not the typical college course. Dr. Karber just tells you the objective and gives you total freedom to figure out how to get there. That level of trust can be liberating.”

Some of the biggest breakthroughs came after members of Karber’s team used personal connections in China to obtain a 400-page manual produced by the Second Artillery and usually available only to China’s military personnel.
Another source of insight was a pair of semi-fictionalized TV series chronicling the lives of Second Artillery soldiers.
The plots were often overwrought with melodrama — one series centers on a brigade commander who struggles to whip his slipshod unit into shape while juggling relationship problems with his glamorous Olympic-swim-coach girlfriend. But they also included surprisingly accurate depictions of artillery units’ procedures that lined up perfectly with the military manual and other documents.
“Until someone showed us on screen how exactly these missile deployments were done from the tunnels, we only had disparate pieces. The TV shows gave us the big picture of how it all worked together,” Karber said.

A bigger Chinese arsenal?

In December 2009, just as the students began making progress, the Chinese military admitted for the first time that the Second Artillery had indeed been building a network of tunnels. According to a report by state-run CCTV, China had more than 3,000 miles of tunnels — roughly the distance between Boston and San Francisco — including deep underground bases that could withstand multiple nuclear attacks.

The news shocked Karber and his team. It confirmed the direction of their research, but it also highlighted how little attention the tunnels were garnering outside East Asia.

The lack of interest, particularly in the U.S. media, demonstrated China’s unique position in the world of nuclear arms.
For decades, the focus has been on the two powers with the largest nuclear stockpiles by far — the United States, with 5,000 warheads available for deployment, and Russia, which has 8,000.

But of the five nuclear weapons states recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, China has been the most secretive. While the United States and Russia are bound by bilateral treaties that require on-site inspections, disclosure of forces and bans on certain missiles, China is not.

The assumption for years has been that the Chinese arsenal is relatively small — anywhere from 80 to 400 warheads.
China has encouraged that perception. As the only one of the five original nuclear states with a no-first-use policy, it insists that it keeps a small stockpile only for “minimum deterrence.”

Given China’s lack of transparency, Karber argues, all the experts have to work with are assumptions, which can often be dead wrong. As an example, Karber often recounts to his students his experience of going to Russia with former defense secretary Frank C. Carlucci to discuss U.S. help in securing the Russian nuclear arsenal.
The United States had offered Russia about 20,000 canisters designed to safeguard warheads — a number based on U.S. estimates at the time.

The generals told Karber they needed 40,000.

Skepticism among analysts

At the end of the tunnel study, Karber cautions that the same could happen with China. Based on the number of tunnels the Second Artillery is digging and its increasing deployment of missiles, he argues, China’s nuclear warheads could number as many as 3,000.
It is an assertion that has provoked heated responses from the arms-control community.

Gregory Kulacki, a China nuclear analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, publicly condemned Karber’s report at a recent lecture in Washington. In an interview afterward, he called the 3,000 figure “ridiculous” and said the study’s methodology — especially its inclusion of posts from Chinese bloggers — was “incompetent and lazy.”

“The fact that they’re building tunnels could actually reinforce the exact opposite point,” he argued. “With more tunnels and a better chance of survivability, they may think they don’t need as many warheads to strike back.”

Reaction from others has been more moderate.

“Their research has value, but it also shows the danger of the Internet,” said Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. Kristensen faulted some of the students’ interpretation of the satellite images.

“One thing his report accomplishes, I think, is it highlights the uncertainty about what China has,” said Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank. “There’s no question China’s been investing in tunnels, and to look at those efforts and pose this question is worthwhile.”

This year, the Defense Department’s annual report on China’s military highlighted for the first time the Second Artillery’s work on new tunnels, partly a result of Karber’s report, according to some Pentagon officials. And in the spring, shortly before a visit to China, some in the office of then-Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates were briefed on the study.

“I think it’s fair to say senior officials here have keyed upon the importance of this work,” said one Pentagon officer who was not authorized to speak on the record.

For Karber, provoking such debate means that he and his small army of undergrads have succeeded.

“I don’t have the slightest idea how many nuclear weapons China really has, but neither does anyone else in the arms-control community,” he said. “That’s the problem with China — no one really knows except them.”

Central Banks to the Rescue? What Today's Action Means...........

The attempt by major central banks to ease strains on Europe's credit markets certainly cheered financial markets on Wednesday, but what does the coordinated action actually do?

In essence, the US central bank, or Federal Reserve, agreed to provide cheaper dollar funding to the European Central Bank-which can then provide cheaper dollar loans to cash-strapped European banks. (For a fuller explanation of how the ECB borrows from the Fed, click here.)

The participation of the central banks of Canada, England, Japan and Switzerland is more of an effort to show that all the central bankers are working together than any expectation that there will be lots of dollar borrowings under their facility.

The goal is to ease the credit crunch in Europe. Lots of European banks make dollar denominated loans, in part because US interest rates are so low. The banks do not usually finance these loans in the way you might think-by lending out the deposits of their retail customers. Instead, the loans are financed by short-term borrowings from other financial institutions.
When European banks make a dollar loan or purchase a dollar denominated asset, they typically borrow the dollars on the what's called "international wholesale deposit market"-which is a fancy word for borrowing from other banks that have dollars. Alternatively, they can borrow in their native currency and then use foreign exchange swaps to hedge the currency risk.

Now that Europe is in the throes of a debt crisis, it has become much more difficult if not impossible for many European banks to borrow dollars in the wholesale markets. To make dollar loans, then, they have to turn to the European Central Bank. What's more, the cost of the foreign exchange swaps has increased, making it more expensive to make dollar loans based on euro assets.
Normally, central banks only make loans in their domestic currencies. But in times of international stress-the credit crisis of 2008, for instance-central banks around the world set up swap lines that allow them to borrow from each other, creating the ability for them to make loans in other currencies.
In short, European banks were finding it too expensive to make dollar loans, which hurt their ability to lend dollars and encouraged them to sell euros. This depressed the value of the euro and restricted credit in Europe. The ECB arranged to borrow dollars more cheaply from the Fed, so it could ease this market.
So was is this some giant giveaway to profligate Europeans of US taxpayer money?

Not quite. In the first place, European banks are major lenders to the US corporate market. When they cannot participate in dollar loans to US companies, US credit also contracts. What's more, these are loans to the ECB, which is unlikely to default. Finally, the Fed isn't lending out "taxpayer dollars" at all. Rather, it is lending out newly created dollars at very low interest rates.

That doesn't mean that US taxpayers are not risk here, of course. The new dollars have the potential to spark inflation-which could result in higher interest rates and higher taxes as the government combats inflation. But in the current economic environment, the risk of inflation is very slight.

My Comments:
The results of above bailout is DOW is up by 465 points.
There is hue and cry about how the things are done.Printing dollar will increase the inflation and devalue the dollar etc etc but there is no otherway to bail out EU crisis.
We don't want lectures.We don't want to hear how the crisis happened and who made the mistake and what should have been not done so these should haven't happened.
Enough is enough.We want solution.There are no otherway then to print money and lend to Banks in EU's.
If that works , then let it be like that.I don't care about the consequences because if we do not do it now, the bailout, we can be in more deeper crisis.
USA,Japan, Swiss, England and Canada has joined for the bailout support and I feel nothing wrong here.Japan is already having trillions of dollar idle in their banks lying with no interest.Let it go out somewhere and work for Japan and someone else as well.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Market making Lower Tops......

That is a bad sign.Market is making a lower Tops and that is not a good sign.
If one can observe then market is constantly making a lower Top.....every top is getting lower and that means that market is in a very bad shape.
FII's are selling in Loss as well and they are buying distressed asset in EU countries.Whether that move will be good or not time will only tell but they (FII's) are selling and investing in distressed assests in Europe Unions countries.
Even though oversaes market were looking good Indian Market were down and that says all.
If the GDP figures comes below 6.5% we can see capitulation in our market.
For the sake of inflation , which cannot be tamed by interest hike and raise in CRR , RBI went increasing it on behest of government and the result is there for us.Economics growth hindered,Cos getting loans at higher rates and hence outgo of int becoming more and hence bottomline get punished and hence performance becoming bad......

The present government has made a hell of a situtaion and market is in tailspin.I wrote recently that market can touch 3900 and seems we are heading for that.

When any stock or market starts making lower TOPS one needs to become more vigilant.Remember this RULE forever.
Another RULE I am disclosing is:

" When a stocks  makes a high and reacts and if it is more then 15-20% then forget that stock."

When I write forget that stock , it means that once a HIGH is made and when a stocks then goes down by over 15-20% then it is TIME  TO GET OUT FROM THAT STOCK.
It says that the distribution is taking place and we also need to get out.
Just try to recall stocks which you hold and see what happened to them once they reacted from the HIGH and the correction is over 15-20% and one will see invariably that stock will go down further.

Readers, please keep this always in MIND.Cut Paste this sentence and observe it whenever you can and if you feel what I am writing is correct then follow it either it be a BULL Market or Bear Market......

Well, what I am trying here to say is, once stock has made a new HIGH and then starts retracing by 15-20% then it will still further go down and then breaking the previosu HIGH will be a herculian task.That previous HIGH becomes a major resistance level for that stock and even if the stock is good it will keep on coming off from that HIGH several times and traders play that way.
They sell near the previous HIGH and stock will go down and then they will buy again and again sell near previosu HIGH and that they will do many times.

But there is catch as well here.One can trade in that stock and make some money but if stock is really good and results are coming good then one day when it will break the previous HIGH and go above it then it will not give chance to buy that stock.For example, Sujana Towers.It came back many times from a certain level of a HIGH and then when it broke that HIGH and went up it went up and up.......

I am not yet ready to write my list for A gr and B gr stock and I feel we have ample time not to buy in hurry and hence I am taking my own time as
But let me write here, this time will also go away and market will be back to normal but we will have to bear the pain.There is no way we can avoid this and hence best thing is to sit on sidelines and watch what market is doing.
I have been time and again writing that don't put borrowed money.Play with those money where one is sure will not be needed for 5 yrs.......
Market never fulfill our dream.It works on its own......

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Electrotherm Ltd...A case Study... Excellent Profit making Co converted in Loss making...!

Today I would like to write on Electrotherm Ltd.It was an excellent Co and suddenly since last 2 qrs the bottonline has gone very negative.I am stunned by the results. The loss are 136 cr for June qr and 156 cr for Sep qr 2011 respectively and that is a LOSS of almost 300 cr in first half.
Well, I was tracking Electrothern Ltd as it was a future bluechip in making and was posting excellent results qr by qr and yr by yr.
So suddenly what happened that Electrotherm started psoting huge losses?
In May/June 2010 management decided to takeover Hans Ispat Ltd and Shree Hans Paper Ltd, Electrotherm (India) Ltd  for  Rs 60 cr. When I read that annoucement at that time  I doubted it in my mind whether that was a right decision or not and looks like my suspicion has come out true unfortunately.
Why a Co which making excellent profit should buy Hans Ispat and Hans paper in which paper is not their core competence business?The sales were already over 2000 cr then why a Co has to acquire another Steel Co and a Paper Co?Is there something I am not able to see ?
The Interest outgo suddenly jumped from 41 cr to 82 cr from last June qr to this June qr.We all know that Steel is a capital Intensive business and if one do not play the cards properly you are bound to be in trouble.
Why a profit making Co take such decision to make it a LOSS making Co?
300 cr LOSS in 2 qrs and we don't know what is there in store for next 2 qrs! and how the Co will  makeup these losses is a big question coming to my mind. Rs 300 cr loss in one half is so big to cover up and then start making profit as well.
First Electrotherm will have to wipeoff this loss and then make profit , so from 300 cr loss to even small profit  of 30 cr , the table needs to be turned in such a way that Electrotherm should make a NP of Rs 330 cr ............and that is a Herculian task according to me for any Co .
Looks like Electrotherm has given us a glaring example how an excellent running Co can get converted in HUGE Loss making Co!A future bluechip Co is now a LOSS making Co.
Suddenly the expenditure has gone up then sales.In Sep 2011, the sales are 404 cr and expenditure is 442 cr.Means Co is already in loss from the starting point as raw material and other expenses has gone up over sales and then add Interest for debt which is 82  cr and add depreciation of 37 cr and Co ends up with a HUGE LOSS of 153 cr for just one quater , Sep 2011.....Wow.......Kya kehna hai......!
Achhi khasi nafe wali co thi, usko ghate wali bana diya................
I have no words to discribe such a bad decision taken by the management.As I said earlier , the entire aquisition was a bad decision.I maybe wrong in my view but as of now it looks it was a very bad decision.
Instead of trying to putting effort in research on Electric devision where they make BIKES which are battery operated  and making it more consumer oriented and spike up the sales of their YoBikes, they did the wrong thing, that is what I am feeling and let me write that when I read about the acquisition of Hans Ispat and Hans Paper, I was in doubt and if I remember , when someone asked me what I feel about Electrotherm Ltd I didn't give a BUY call to him/her.
If someone can remember in one of my recent post maybe a month or so back, I wrote that while looking at parametres one needs to keep track on stock and go to BSE site and see if there is any announcement there for the Stock you hold and if you find one open it and read it and if Co is diversifying in another business then analyse it whether the diversification will work or not.
And exactly same thing has happend with Electrotherm Ltd.

I would like to see what management has to say about the LOSSES and how they will manage it.I am awaiting Management interview on Electrotherm.If they have given any such interview after dismal LOSS in first 2 qrs I request readers to give the link ......

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Why don’t you know where the country is going, Mr Mukherjee?

Mahesh Vijapurkar Nov 26, 2011

This is an editor post from moneycontrol website:

A visibly upset Pranab Mukherjee, the senior most Congress politician had this to say soon after a citizen slapped Sharad Pawar in New Delhi on Thursday: “I don’t know where the country is going”. He had a scowl becoming his ire as he walked to his official car from his office.

I wish it were as simple as that.

It is hard to believe that it was merely rhetorical. It is equally hard to believe that being in the perch he is on, next only to Manmohan Singh but swinging more clout than anyone else, a notch below on the establishment ladder, he does not know where this country is going.

Take your head out of the sand, Pranab-da. PTI

It seems Mukherjee and his peers, down to the gram panchayat politics are hiding their head, ostrich-like, in the sand.
The common man, as represented by 27-year-old Harvinder Singh, seems to know where the country is heading. That slap was apparently, not personal, because Harvinder Singh and Sharad Pawar did not even know each other. It was symbolic of the outrage of the helpless man on the street. At that time, to Singh, Pawar was emblematic of the political class.

The country, the common knows, has gone to scamsters, to politicians who use democracy as a veil to perpetuate their misdeeds which ranges from building family empires, buying up constituencies, strengthening their own money-making apparatus often passed off as legitimate businesses, to a subversion of democracy where the common man is allowed no role except to periodically cast a vote.
But Mukherjee and his tribe have refused to heed the signals which have been emanating from the streets for about past six months.
There is a marked tendency, Mukherjee ought to know, that people have begun to doubt the value of a vote if it only leads to the kind of grasping political class to which ideology is a ruse, to which the laws are only a pretence, to which the next goal is another re-election to ensure its perpetuity. Sadly, democracy as practiced is driving people away from their earlier faith in it.

That slap repeatedly played out mercilessly on the 24×7 news networks is perhaps a big notice to the establishment that things have come to a pass where people have had enough. To use part of Kiran Bedi’s tweeted response, it was all to do with the ‘pent up anger’ which has to find a vent somewhere.

Note the pattern. Suresh Kalmadi was the object of an attack on his way to the courts; he has been accused of embezzlement of public funds for personal gain. Sukh Ram was attacked because, this is my guess, it took years before justice caught up with him; it could have been impatience at the delay in punishing the man. Who knows, there are a lot many slaps unadministered yet and people may get temped to neutralise that backlog. It is best they are not offered that opportunity.

Of course, a democracy does not have room for such assaults, for taking law into one’s own hands, to be violent when there are means of redress – a parliamentary system, a judiciary, an executive, a fourth estate. But what of them? The Parliament is hostage to the tendency of scoring political points, not making judicious laws; the judiciary is a slothful entity where justice is not easily found, the executive is compromised – you can’t expect a policeman not to ask a bribe – and, the media, severely compromised with its penchant for trivia and paid news.

What recourse does the common man then have? With elections far away in 2014, with the country brimming with big-ticket corruption cases, with inflation on fire because the common man believes it is all to do with poor or no governance, the streets are an inviting theatre for all action. The Arab Spring has not been a mean contributor to the Indian Citizen beginning to think that there is a way out, after all.

Pranab Mukherjee, in his de rigueur winter wear bandh gala, a signature of Delhi politicians was wrong on one point. Harvinder Singh’s slap on Pawar’s left cheek did not deserve any publicity, he said, in utter contempt of the action. But publicity is what it would get because the media wittingly or unwittingly hyperventilates on behalf of the people because the latter like it. Because they like it, the TRP’s go up.

Yes, Anna Hazare is not exactly a reticent man and is not given to discretion and has a past of having used strong methods to get people to reform and characteristically, despite the Gandhian halo woven around him – part self-proclaimed, part ascribed – could not resist that ‘One slap?’ reaction. He has an animus against Sharad Pawar but walk the Facebook Diaspora and you’d find utter justification for the slap.

One went to the extent of wanting to covert November 24, the Thanksgiving Day in the US into India’s Slapping Day and one does not need much imagination to guess who he had in mind as objects: the politicians who brought the country to this pass.

The least Mr Mukherjee can do is retain his scowl and help redeem his community of politicians of this stigma of the most unwanted call in this country at this point of time. It would, of course, be harder to reform his tribe than ask the people to change.

Which means, while politicians and others rush to rightly commiserate with Pawar and condemn the slap, few, if any, have said they understood why it happened.

My Comments:
How many liked the slap given by Harvindersingh to Sharah Pawar?I can say majority liked it......and when I say majority it is not 51% liked and 49% didn't like is I can say 95% liked it and 5% didn't like it.....I left those 5% for human rights and chivalrous minded people who wants to show that they believe in democracy and it should not happen.These are pseduo secular people who lives in a big house and have all types of luxury in life.They are good for nothing .
As editor rightly wrote, Harvinder and Pawar do not know each other personally and hence it is a slap on politicians of India.
Commom man has nothing left to do then what Harvinder has done.I bet if given chance these politcians can get more slap from every Indian Citizen.
If inflation is going up why Sharad Pawar is still there as the Agricultural Minister?Why can't he talk with experts how India can grow more grains and thus contain the inflation.Why government is doing nothing on that front?
I know here also many would like to come out and comments why talk of only Sharad Pawar and not others......these are all good in arguing and makes no sense.....poor is getting life living hard.......
Politicians has lost all morality.As editor wrote in one para , since last 6 months polticians has behaved like no one needs to speak anything and let corruption go on and on.I know we have arguemnets that overseas is also like that.....otherwise there cannot be 2008 or PIIGS default but why look at them?If we are good then them ,our economy should be wheathering the global calamity and have growed at over 8% even in this time.......Justification is no answer for what is happening in India......If our politicians were good we still would have wheathered the global turmoils and have come out winner.Change our way of looking things.The perspective to look the situation needs to get changed.Try to break the jinx of thinking.That's all I would say here ....talking of west bad debts etc takes us nowhere.We need to know what we need to do.....

Blood is boiling in common man and Congress keeps on talking of parliamentary procedure and so on and so forth.
Beware Congress next election you are going to lose very badly.I don't say other parties are good like BJP, NDA the left front but let there be another government.It is time for a change at Parliament......

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Allied Digital Services' CMD receives APEA 2011 Outstanding Entrepreneurship Award

Capital Market / 11:38 , Nov 26, 2011

Allied Digital Services has announced that the company's chairman & managing director, Nitin Shah was awarded the 'Outstanding Entrepreneurship Award' by enterprise Asia at the Asia Pacific Entrepreneurship Awards 2011 (APEA) India.

Considered as Asia's most prestigious awards for Entrepreneurs, the APEA awards aim to recognize leading entrepreneurs across the region to spur greater innovation, fair practices and growth in entrepreneurship. Enterprise Asia is a non-governmental organization promoting the development of entrepreneurship across the region. The awards aim to connect successful entrepreneurs and business leaders across the region to strengthen regional ties and growth in entrepreneurship, encouraging fair practices and greater innovation

My Comments:
I am glad to read this news as I recomended this stock here and was in some type of scam and was given a sell call by some analyst.
If the Co is a crook then there can't be any award waiting for the CMD.I am sure Sanjana would love to read this.......

Nifty made 2 year low......

For the first time recently there were trades of 4000 Nifty PUTS.High of PUT Options was 15.50 and low 10.70 and closed 13.70.
So is this a move to trap bears or opening of a new low for Nifty?In other words is this is a BEAR TRAP from BULLS or what?
I have explained in details how this game is played of F&O.How PUT Options and Call Options are written and who writes them and how they play it .
But there was buying seen in 4800 -5000 Nifty Call Options as well which says someone is taking a bullish stance as well and thus coming out against the Bear Camp who wants to see
I am observing this fight with great interest as both camps are coming against each other after 3-4 months as bears were having upper hand in that time.
I personally feel , news and circumstances still are not in favour of BULLS and will have to see how much long they can stand against bears before finally succumbing for the level 3900.
Maybe for a ST for say a month or two market can make a rally as it is in oversold zone but after that it will all depends on the EU financial crisis, and how our politicians will handle the Inflation, reforms,weakening rupee etc.......
With FDI in retial I feel is a good move as with more FDI coming in this sector will also tone up the real Esatate sector for offices and it will also stop rupee depreciating more now as with more FDI coming for investment there will be demand for rupee which will take rupee back below 50.......

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Indian food market to treble to $900-bn by 2020: Report

The domestic food market is likely to triple to USD 900 billion by 2020 from the current USD 300 billion, according to an industry report.
"Accounting for 16% of the world population and 12 percent of the world food production, India is one of the largest producers and consumers of food in the world. Indians spend around 35 percent of their total spend on food - USD 300 billion annually that will grow to about USD 900 billion by 2020," a Boston Consulting Group report 'India Food Processing: Mission 2020' said.
However, the report adds food processing levels are substantially lower than most emerging and developed economies with only six percent of the agricultural produce in the country being properly processed. Of the total food consumed today (USD 300 billion), 20% is processed and it is expected to increase to 35 percent (of USD 900 billion) by 2020.
"Food processing system needs to be remodelled. We have to figure a way to invest more in people and capacity among other things," BCG India principal Nimisha Jain said. "Food processing is important as it helps to extend shelf life and reduces wastage, thereby increasing food supply," Danone Director Eric Soubeiran said.
The domestic food processing industry is likely to invest Rs 14,000 crore in the next two years, according to Ficci. Most of the investment is likely to come from the existing companies.
"It is difficult to estimate what will be the investment cost but company wise, Danone is setting up manufacturing unit, Britannia is going towards north-east, we at Nestle are doubling all our capacities. So there is tremendous interest in investing," Nestle chairman and MD and Ficci food processing committee chairman Antonio Helio Waszyk said.
The report also found that last year there was a shift from pulses to poultry, and this year it is towards fruits and vegetables. Fruits and vegetables today account for 25 percent of the food consumed and by 2020 it is likely to be 40% of the food consumed.

My Comments:
And some of the pick in this sectors are:
1) Heritage Food
2) Vadilal Ind
3) ADF Foods Ltd
4)Flex Foods
5)Tasty Bites
etc.......I would like to write here that Flex Foods has doubled the bottomline this qr then last year and even the half year NP is equal to last whole year.I have recomended Flex Food way back here at my blog around 17 and in this market Flex Food is exhibiting excellent strength and is around 27.Refer my back post on Flex Food for more information......
I also like Heritage Food as well. They need to work on the margin and debt.With a 1000 cr sales , and 190 cr Mcap Heritage Food offer value according to me.......
Vadilal Ind has been my very very old call from MMB days and after that we saw RJ taking stake in it.They have coldstorages in various part of India which I feel have a good rental income which will add in the bottomline and along with their branded name of "Vadilal Icecream" Vadilal Ind too looks good to me.
ADF formally known as American Dryfruits Foods Ltd is a very wellknown brand for dryfruits etc and the stock is going cheap according to me.