Friday, December 31, 2010

Sujana Towers Vs VIP Ind.......Comparision....

                        I WISH A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY READERS...

I am today comparing the run of Sujana Towers and VIP Ind.Why it happened that though VIP Ind low was Rs.31 in Mar 2009 and Sujana Towers low was Rs 12 and VIP high was Rs 776 and Sujana Towers high was 230....still Sujana Towers is under SEBI scanner and why VIP is not in SEBI scanner?
Isn't that an anamoly that VIP which gave 25 times return is not catching SEBI's eye  and Sujana Towers gave 20 times return which is even less RETURN then VIP Ind in same period then why Sujana Towers is getting all brickbets and why not VIP Ind?Both took same period of time but one is under SEBI scanner and one is not!
Well, I have been writing here time and again lately that no stock can move without operator(which are known as market maker in SEBI language) except A gr stocks which is also possible with F&O coming in play as well but that is a big game.
So it is now clear that VIP Ind and Sujana Towers were under operation by a market maker.But to me the operator in Sujana Towers was immature and that of VIP Ind was mature.Sujana Towers price discoverer showed that he is novice in operating stocks while VIP Ind market maker proved that he is a seasoned player.
Sujana Towers went from Rs.62 on sep 21 st to Rs.220 on 25th Nov ..means in 2 months Sujana Towers went from 62 to 220 giving a whopping return of almost 400% or 4 times return.Now was there any hurry to run Sujana Towers so fast so soon?Why it was not operated like the way VIP Ind went up so that SEBI has no problem with it?
That is what the new school of operators needs to learn from seasoned or veteran operators.Why Sujana Towers kept dorment for months togather and start moving up from Sep10?When Sujana Towers was at 12 in Mar 09 it just went to 62 in Sep 10 ?If Sujana Towers had moved from 12 to maybe 80-100 by sep 10 , which would have been a normal case and then 230 by Nov 10 then there would have no problem but when one see a run like Sujana Towers like that it is bound to be under SEBI Scanner.......
So the message here from my blog to the operator or market maker or price discoveror is move a stock in such a way that your name do not come in bad books of SEBI and that is the trick........
VIP moving from 32 to 776 in 18 months didn't make waves because it was moved in such a fashion that doesn't look abnormal but Sujana Towers moving pattern looked abnormal.
Hope some operator read this and take a clue and do the things in such a way that he doesn't come under SEBI scanner.........or under our learned and always on prowl journalist, Sucheta Dalal....LOL.....
Running a stock or operating a stock is an ART and new breeds needs to learn it observing veteran players.It is a very clear case that both VIP Ind and Sujana Towers were operated as both gave phenominal returns in same period of time and like wise there are many examples like that....which can elaborated.I just picked these two.....
Again I repeat, let market maker know that don't keep stocks on same level for longer period and then suddenly start it run and that too many folds, if you will do that way you are bound to be under SEBI scanner......if any stocks needs to run 10 times in a year due to any story coming up or NP going up exponentially and hence rerating going to happen, start the operation well ahead of time ....don't make it run and give 10 times return  in 4-6 months........instead make it sure that in whole year the return is 10 times and not in 4-6 months..........don't keep the stock dorment for months togather.........
One more thing that has come to my  mind and am writing here is,"Circular Trading", One of my friend told me that Sujana Towers must have come under survelliance system of circular trading and VIP Ind must have not.For that I have to say is, it is not possible for even VIP Ind to go from 32 to 776 without circular trading.So now then what needs to be done?
Well, when circular trading is done, it should look like buying stocks and not trading.It means that there shouldn't be any day trading or trading within a week......under no circumstances it should looked like circular trading and ramping up the price.......It is very clear that whoever took the operation of VIP Ind took great care not to come under SEBI net.....Learn..learn....learn.....learn from the mistakes.......
The defination of circular trading is, one guy buy a stock and other sells it .Both are sitting in different office with different terminal.And then may be next day again the guy who bought sells again to same guy who sold him previous day.......but as it is a circular trading the timing of when the guy who will sell is predetermined so that other guy will also sit at the same time and as soon as the sell orders come from that guy , he will buy immidiately.......otherwise what happens you know?The price will crash with such a huge selling if that guy who is suppose to buy is not sitting there at that time.......

Monday, December 27, 2010

TeleCanor Global Ltd. and Compact Disc Ltd............updates

I have been writing on this and the latest I am getting is, the issue between one investor who use to recomend and then take back his recomendation due to some conflicts with the management has been solved and hence it looks like TeleCanor is back on reckoning and should move up further more from here on........DD is a must....
I am also reading mails wherein they are now recomending Compact Disc giving all sorts of reasons and targts ..etc....take your own call....


India Inc’s year of bouncing back

As private-sector led growth finds its tipping point, major sectors are reaping benefits

IT’S OFFICIAL. The great Indian growth story looks set for a sequel in 2011 as the economy readies to wipe out any lingering traces of the global recession. Strong growth across sectors promises not just to beat back the recession blues but also cement India’s position as a leading growth centre in Asia alongside China.

Corporate India can take heart from the International Monetary Fund’s projection that the economy will complete the 2010 fiscal year on a 9.7 percent growth rate powered by robust industrial production and a strong macro economic performance. With the transition from public stimulus to private sector sector-led growth underway, industry will be the backbone behind the projected 8.4% growth in the next fiscal.

Spurred on by the phenomenal success of the Coal India IPO, Indian PSUs are clearly on a roll. Year 2011 will begin on a high note with three back to back offerings of blue chip navratna companies. Steel Authority of India, Indian Oil Corporation and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation will hit Dalal Street giving Indian investors a wealth of options to choose from. With studies establishing that wealth creation in PSU IPOs is substantially higher than that of private companies, it looks like a win-win year for the public as well as the PSUs.

The private sector isn’t exactly going to be left behind either. With most sectors ready to build on the growth momentum of 2010, Indian industry has reason to welcome the coming year with open arms. The auto sector which grew at a robust 28 percent in 2010, is ready to rival the heyday growth rate in the IT/ITeS sector in the next few years. “India was the second fastest growing automobile market in 2009-10 and is expected to grow further in the coming year,” says Abheek Barua, chief economist of HDFC Bank. It is estimated that the size of the Indian passenger vehicles segment in 2020 will be close to 9 million units and twowheelers nearly 30 million units.

India’s cash-rich firms are expected to keep up their hunt for overseas targets in 2011 and may top this years record M&A activity. Data from Thomson Reuters, which showed that 2010 was the biggest year for outbound deals for the Indian economy, points at the hunt for natural resources driving overseas deals in the coming year. With companies looking for assets from Africa to Australia, oil, gas, coal and iron ore will feed the hunt for overseas acquisitions even among mid cap companies.

A more than complete recovery from the global recession will be signalled by the hiring spree India Inc is expected to indulge in. Positive sentiments across sectors will spell a boom for the job market according to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The net employment outlook at a high of 42 percent will make Indian employers the most optimistic in terms of addition to their payrolls.

With India one of the 40 most improved economies to do business in according to the Doing Business in 2011 report by the World Bank, China is ready for some stiff competition. As Corporate India finishes the first decade of the new millennium with a bang, the world is watching.

End The Ethanol Insanity.......

Ethanol damages engines and is not a viable alternative to fossil fuels, but farmers and lobbyists don't want you to know that, says Ed Wallace

IT IS now conceivable that the myth of ethanol as the salvation for America’s energy problem is coming to an end. And maybe we always should have known it would wind up in italics, underlined, with the real facts of the damage ethanol can do to gas-powered motors laid out for all to see in a court of law. I say that because this past Monday a group calling itself the Engine Products Group, comprising small-engine manufacturers, automakers, and boat manufacturers, filed suit in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia to vacate the EPA’s October ruling that using a 15 percent blend of ethanol in the nation’s fuel supplies would not harm 2007 and newer vehicles.

The automakers claim they have no idea whether a higher percentage of ethanol would damage their newer cars—and won’t know until their testing is completed next year. The boat manufacturers claim their engines stay in service much longer, and are therefore more likely to be damaged by this fuel. The small-engine manufacturers are positive E15 would severely shorten the life of their products. According to The Washington Post, that’s already been happening. The source is Mick Matuskey, co-owner of Power and Lawn Equipment of Gaithersburg, Md., who said, “You’re getting half of the life out of the product today [when using E10 ethanol], compared to 30, 40 years ago.”

Ultimately this lawsuit stems from one major issue: Manufacturers have to take legal action to protect their customers from the damage higher blends of ethanol would do to their motors, because their warranties generally don’t cover it. Of course, no such lawsuit would be complete without the ethanol lobby trying to obfuscate the facts of the case. Reuters quoted Tom Buis, head of lobbying group Growth Energy, as saying of the new proposed fuel, “E15 is safe for all vehicles on the road today.”

That’s patently untrue. For years cars nationwide have been damaged when motorists ended up with more than 10 percent ethanol in their fuel. I covered that situation last year in ‘The Great Ethanol Scam’. But ethanol’s newest public-relations problem actually started in the last eight days of November. Having been fervidly pro-ethanol in the last decade of his political career, former Vice-President Al Gore reversed course and apologised for supporting ethanol. Of course, Gore’s reason for taking his original position was perfectly understandable—to a politician. As he told energy conference attendees in Athens, Greece, “One of the reasons I made that mistake is that I paid particular attention to the farmers in my home state of Tennessee, and I had a certain fondness for the farmers of Iowa because I was about to run for President.”

Translated from politics-speak into English: Pandering to farmers gets votes. But if your claimed position is to plan some sort of smart energy policy for America, then getting farmers’ votes shouldn’t be the deciding factor. Curiously, after Energy Secretary Steven Chu admitted on Nov. 29 that ethanol really isn’t any sort of intelligent plan for our nation’s gasoline supplies, Energy Dept. spokeswoman Stephanie Mueller issued that same day a statement vitiating Chu’s comments: “Secretary Chu believes that biofuels can, should, and will vastly expand the economic opportunities for America’s farmers today and in the future.”

One has to wonder whether Mueller understands that Secretary Chu was talking about the business and energy illogic of using food-based fuel for gasoline, not to mention that ethanol is just another farm subsidy program that the public is being told is our best chance to wean ourselves off Middle Eastern oil.

And with farm incomes already up 31 percent in 2010, according to a Dec. 1 article in The Wall Street Journal, why do we need to continue the ethanol foolishness at all? If one is to believe all the business reporting on this subject, speculators have returned en masse to the commodities market (including oil); speculation has already boosted the price of corn by more than $2 a bushel since July. Then again, wheat prices showed similar gains from June to November. So it’s fair to say that many food crop prices on the Chicago Board of Trade were dynamic. Corn prices will go up whether it’s being diverted for fuel or not.

Just before this rash of political honesty, in October the Environmental Protection Agency released its own study concluding that vehicles built in 2007 and since could use gasoline with ethanol in a 15 percent blend without doing any noticeable damage. That seemingly was a green light for gas-station owners to pay for yet another tank and pump to handle this new blend of fuel.

For background, “the EPA’s study” relied on testing by our Energy Dept., a situation that Representative Michael Burgess (R-Tex.) questioned because the EPA is quite capable of doing these tests on its own. This way, however, if a 15 percent blend of ethanol in the gas supply does not perform as expected and numerous vehicles suffer disabling damage as a consequence, the EPA theoretically could shift the blame onto the Energy Dept.’s tests. Yes, that’s the same Energy Dept. whose head said in the last week of November that the future of transportation shouldn’t involve ethanol.

Then, on Dec. 20 automobile manufacturers, boat manufacturers, and the makers of small gas engines filed that lawsuit against the EPA for approving this higher level of ethanol in the nation’s fuel supplies. Meanwhile, the EPA said testing will continue to determine whether a 15 percent blend of ethanol can be used in vehicles older than 2007 models, but put off making the final ruling on those tests. At this point it should be noted the entire logic for forcing more ethanol on the public is the fact that a congressional mandate will increase the amount of ethanol we use to 13.95 billion gallons in 2011.

According to government estimates of total gasoline usage in the U.S., this means all gasoline in America would wind up with a 7.95 percent ethanol blend next year. But that’s based on the assumption gasoline sales will continue to grow as the economy moves slowly toward full recovery, and that assumption may not be valid. In 2010 the low demand for gasoline and the mandate to use ethanol forced an 8.25 percent blend into the nation’s gasoline supply.

An ill-thought-out mandate combines with the power of a political cycle, and no one seems to know when to say “Stop, that’s enough.” It starts with a bad idea: Putting an energy-inefficient fuel filler into the nation’s gas supply and calling that an energy policy. Quickly, engineers and scientists, such as UC-Berkeley’s Tad Patzek, discovered that using corn as the base ingredient at best yields zero improvement; energy used to create the product just barely covers the energy the product delivers to the end users, meaning motorists. At worst it’s a net energy loser. Yet Congress is not forced to re-examine its mandate based on scientific evidence.

The older cars owned by those less financially secure will be the first to go. Maybe when it starts happening to those on more solid financial ground, then someone will listen: Adding an expensive, harmful, useless filler to gasoline just to win farmers’ gratitude is not remotely the same as having a legitimate national energy policy.
—Bloomberg BusinessWeek

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Abdul Hamid....An Act par Excellence....

As I said sometimes , my mind wanders restlessly and when it starts wandering it has no horizen.It keeps on thinking out of world inspirational acts and this time I am bringing out one more example which will make all stand up with head high for the devotion and bravery showed by our army......

Read here the real and true story of Param Vir Chakra Abdul Hamid for showing bravery in the War against Pakistan in 1965.I standup and  salute Param Vir Chakra Mr.Abdul Hamid for his bravery again after so many years also.......

Read on:

Abdul Hamid (soldier)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, search

Abdul Hamid

July 1, 1933(1933-07-01) – September 10, 1965(1965-09-10) (aged 32)

Company Quarter Master Havildar,PVC

Place of birth Dhamupur village of Ghazipur District in Uttar Pradesh

Place of death Chima, Khem Karan Sector

Allegiance India

Service/branch Indian Army

Years of service 1954-1965

Rank Company Quarter Master Havildar

Battles/wars Indo-Pakistani War of 1965

Awards Param Vir Chakra
Company Quarter Master Havildar Abdul Hamid (July 1, 1933 - September 10, 1965) was a soldier in the 4 Grenadiers, Indian Army, who died in the Khem Karan sector during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965, and was the posthumous recipient of the Republic of India's highest military decoration, the Param Vir Chakra. The award was announced on 16 September 1965, less than a week after the battle that cost his life.
He was born at Dhamupur village of Ghazipur District in Uttar Pradesh on July 1, 1933, the son of lance Naik Usman Farooqi , who was also a jawan in the Grenadiers. He was enrolled in the 4 Grenadiers on 27 December 1954. In the 1988 Television serial Param Vir Chakra by Chetan Anand, Abdul Hamid is played by actor Naseeruddin Shah.

Contents [hide]

1 Action in Indo-Pak War

2 Citation

3 External links

4 References
[edit] Action in Indo-Pak War
In the new defence plan of the Division, 4 Grenadiers occupied a vital area ahead of Chima village on the Khem Karan-Bhikhiwind road. A firm hold on this area was considered essential to sustain the divisional plan of defence. On September 8 night, the enemy made repeated probing attacks on Grenadiers positions but was frustrated in all the attempts. The most serious threat, however, developed when the enemy attacked with a regiment of Patton tanks at 0800 hours on September 10. The attack was preceded by intense artillery shelling so much so that a shell littered every yard of ground occupied by the battalion.
By 0900 hours, the enemy tanks had penetrated the forward company positions. At this critical juncture, Hamid was commanding a recoilless gun detachment. Seeing the gravity of the situation, he moved out to a flank with his gun mounted on a jeep. Intense enemy shelling and tank fire did not deter him. From his new position, he knocked out the leading enemy tank with accurate fire. Then he changed his position and knocked out another enemy tank. By this time the enemy who had spotted his position brought down concentrated machine gun and high explosive fire on him.
But he kept on firing. As he fired to hit yet another enemy tank, he was mortally wounded by a high explosive shell. Throughout this action, CQMH Abdul Hamid inspired his comrades to put up a gallant fight to beat off the enemy tank assault. His sustained act of bravery and disregard for personal safety, in the face of constant enemy fire, were a shining example, not only to his unit but also to the whole division and were in the highest traditions of the Indian Army. Company Quarter Master Havildar Abdul Hamid was honoured with the highest war time gallantry medal, Param Vir Chakra, posthumously
His citation gives him credit for three tanks destroyed; in fact he had destroyed no less than 7 enemy tanks [1]. This is because the citation for Abdul Hamid's PVC was sent on the evening on 9 September 1965 but he destroyed 3 more tanks on the next day, plus the seventh one which also killed him.
PVC Abdul Hamid's actions exposed an important vulnerability in the M48 Patton and after the 1965 war, the M48 was largely forced into extinction from military use around the world and replaced by the M60. India set up a war memorial named "Patton Nagar" ("Patton Town") in Khemkaran District, where the captured Pakistani Patton tanks are displayed. A U.S. study of the battles in South Asia concluded that weaker areas of the Patton's armor (such as rear and sides) could in fact be penetrated by the Ordnance QF 20 pounder guns of the Centurion tank and the 75mm guns of the AMX-13. The U.S had given Pakistan the Patton tanks used in the war.

[edit] Citation
The citation for the Param Vir Chakra awarded to him reads:

4 GRENADIERS (NO 2639985)

At 0800 hours on 10 September 1965 Pakistan forces launched an attack with a regiment of Patton tanks on a vital area ahead of village Cheema on the Bhikkiwind road in the Khem Karam Sector. Intense artillery shelling preceded the attack. The enemy tanks penetrated the forward position by 0900 hours. Realising the grave situation, Company Quarter Master Havildar Abdul Hamid who was commander of an RCL gun detachment moved out to a flanking position with his gun mounted on a jeep, under intense enemy shelling and tank fire. Taking an advantageous position, he knocked out the leading enemy tank and then swiftly changing his position, he sent another tank up in flames. By this time the enemy tanks in the area spotted him and brought his jeep under concentrated machine-gun and high explosive fire. Undeterred, Company Quarter Master Havildar Abdul Hamid kept on firing on yet another enemy tank with his recoilless gun. While doing so, he was mortally wounded by an enemy high explosive shell.

Havildar Abdul Hamid’s brave action inspired his comrades to put up a gallant fight and to beat back the heavy tank assault by the enemy. His complete disregard for his personal safety during the operation and his sustained acts of bravery in the face of constant enemy fire were a shining example not only to his unit but also to the whole division and were in the highest traditions of the Indian Army.[2]

My Comments:
The only thing I would like to know here is, whether Indian Government is looking after the family of Paran Veer Chakra Abdul Hamid?I doubt they would be taking care of his family......

Monday, December 20, 2010

Market is down...but not out....Updates...

Market is down by 2000 points but stocks are down by over 40-50% and even more .There is a cautious atmosphere in market.Market pundits are advising caution, some are sure about trend reversal as well, means starting of a bear phase.
Perticularly the midcaps has been battered down very badly but then these are the times when one gets great fundamentals stocks cheap.
I like such type of correction which gives chance for investors to lapup good stocks.
Always remember one thing, whatever the market is ,buy the Value.If one finds a stock cheap, disregarding what market is doing one needs to go ahead and buy it.Fundamentals has always given great returns.
I have written many times, making money in market is not easy.Don't borrow money to buy stocks.Don't play in F&O.Don't trade daily in stocks.Don't buy for a week or a month.Market never fulfill our such wish.Market has a very very bad tendency to prove everyone wrong and that it does consistantly without fail.
Never make projection for ST.Never make projection which are abnormal.Market do give abnormal returns but one never knows in which stock one will get that.
For example, if we take Parekh Aluminex,which I recomended here at Rs 105, went on to touch 600.Many readers who follows me wrote me that they have already sold 50% and had made the rest holding free of cost.That is excellent thing to do but when any stock gives abnormal return within a year or year and a half, then readers needs to book profit as well.Like in Parekh Aluminex the return was 600% in a year or year and a half.That is the key here.Booking profit when a stock is giving enormous return is the order of the day as well.Those who bought Sujana Towers at Rs 32 when I recomended and sold 50% at 64 should book profit at 180-200 as well.Sujana Towers ran like a mad bull and in a very short time of last couple of months went from 52 to 230 .Now these type of return is just out of world.Only one is lucky then only one can have stock with them.
Yes, selling 50% at double is my first choice as the holding becomes FREE and one has no investment left.But market is not just taking out money but also making money and if one do not book profit at times one may feel letdown.
Both Parekh Alu and Sujana Towers are excellent cos and will do well in future as well but if one has sold 10-20% he would have been able to buy them again at cheaper rate.
I just read that Serial entrepreneur and ace investor C Sivasankaran has bought 1.5% stake in Sujana Towers for Rs 19 cr at Rs 130( Which is also wayup from my recomended price).He has already picked up stake in K S Oil another tainted stock under SEBI scan.Why an ace investor has to buy a stock which is under SEBI Scanner?Because the fundamentals of the Co is great.
These opearors when they try to move some stocks , not all are without fundamentals.Maybe couple of them are such but 70-80% do have excellent fundamentals otherwise if they try to operate all poor fundamentals stocks then no one would buy it or there can't be huge buying that can come to lift the stock up.So when operators picks up stocks they also pick stocks which have excellent fundamentals.
So don't be afraid of buying stocks which are under operators list which have been manupalated, if you see the fundamentals are good , one need to go ahead and buy it.


Sucheta Dala one of the journalist has come out with news that KP is still active and she has wrote some 20 stocks where KP is active and she now says they are K20 stocks instead of K10 in year 2000 which he ran.
So it means that when KP bullrun was on in 1999-2000 of IT sector, he ran only 10 stocks which were then known as K10 and now when KP is debarred by SEBI uptill 2017 he is running 20 stocks!Isn't that looks more surprising?KP in debarred state is more dangerous then without it.......
The list of stock she has given are as under:

1.Orchid Chemicals

2.GMR Infrastructure

3.Cairn India

4.Deccan Chronicle

5.Reliance Industries

6.Punj Lloyd

7.India Bulls Real Estate

8.Pipavav Shipyard


10.Amtek Auto

11.Hindustan Oil Exploration Company

12.Camson Biotechnologies

13.Crew Bos Products

14.UCO Bank

15.East India Hotels

16.State Bank of India

17.OCL India

18.Kemrock Industries

19.Tatia Global Ventures

20.JSW Steel
And so that is how it is! Excellent finding.Now out of these 20 stocks Orchid Chemical, Punj Llyod,Hind Oil Explo are Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's stocks where he has invested big.
Now take Cairns, Ril Ind,State Bank,East India Hotel ,GVR Infra are very very big.Big in the sense they have HUGE Mcap and rigging those shares is just out of world.
She also wrote that KP wanted to buy 60 mn shares of Amtek Auto.
That means that eq is40 cr means, 4 cr shares and is 2 paidup so there will be 20 cr shares and out of that 60mn shares means KP wanted to buy 30% of the eq to rig up the price.
Now Amtek Auto has come down from 200 to 140 and even if we think that promoters and KP were hand in gloves with each other and they gave 6 cr shares to KP they should have got 917 cr from KP even at CMP of Rs 140! Wow! So for a small Co like Amtek Auto ,if KP wants to rig the price , first he needs to have shares and for acquiring it he will have to have Rs.917 cr to buy 60 mn , means 6 cr imagine how much he has to put money to run stocks like SBI, RIL Ind where the Mcap is huge?
Is it possible for a person like Ketan Parekh to have 917 cr to buy stake in Amtek Auto and then rig the prices?I don't believe that is possible.
Now just imagine if KP has to run all 20 stocks how much money he will need to corner floating stocks of that shares to rig up the price.
I have written recently, barring A gr stocks there needs to be an operator to move the stock above 50% in a year .The reason I wrote barring A gr is they are having HUGE eq and hence HUGE Mcap and DII's,FII's , HNI's all have taken stake in it and hence it is difficult to rig prices of A gr stocks.
Now coming back again to rigging prices of stocks, 3-4 stocks belongs to where Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has taken stake , and hence it again vindicates my belief that even operators are there that doesn't mean fundamentals are weak.
And according to me it is impossible for anyone to rig up the prices of SBI,Ril Ind, Cairns India which has huge eq and is distributed among many DII's and FII's and promoters.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

A public discloser....To whomsoever It May Concern.......

Today I saw 2 comments from Mr.Samiappa which I have pasted it here.I have also given reply on comment section and I am doing it here as well at front page.
I hope Samiappa read it and understand it properly what is going on......

Samiappa Palanivelan said...

Whomsoever u r...Behave urself when posting comments to my blog...i have clearly mentioned the source of mine, not only in this article but all ...and surely this is not your own creation as you have said...

December 15, 2010 6:54 PM

Samiappa Palanivelan said...

and the comment u posted in my site was :Hey vulgar fellow..Wont you get ashamed of copying content from other websites and pretending to be your own content? It was my own content that you have theft. I will file a case regarding this on you. This is my original post. By RASHI on Manager! on 12/14/10

December 15, 2010 7:01 PM

My Reply to Samiappa:

Rajeev Desai said...

Hi Samiappa,

It looks like there is some misunderstanding going on.

As you have correctly written that I have already mentioned that I got an email and I pasted it here so that is not my own article.

But I didn't understand what u r talking about posting a comment at your blog.I never visted your blog nor I have written any comments there nor I have accused you for anything.

It looks one of the reader must have visited and wrote that but ofcourse it is not me, the owner of this blog,Rajeev Desai.

I will never do such things to anyone.....

December 15, 2010 7:26 PM

Thursday, December 9, 2010

What is happening in market?

I know that readers are in delima.What to do ?Whether to average or sell or hold?
This is a very typical type of situation.SEBI has barred Mr.Sanjay Dangi and its properiety firm.Sanjay Dangi said he is going to challenge the verdict.
The name of yesteryear Big Bull(Ketan Parekh) has come in Media that he is operating through front entities of his coetire and is trying to bring him to books.
His old scams examples are coming up in media to scar the investors.
These a clear fight between BULL and BEARS.
This fight is very old.Maybe some 3 decades and more.But the first blood was drawn when Harshad Mehta fought his first battle.Around mid 80's, stock market was completly in rein of bears.There were perticular group who always play the bearish game.They never let any stock go up on fundamentals even if the earnings are growing exponentially.At that time, ACC, Tisco(Tata Steel),Tata Motors, Century Tex etc etc were 100 paidup shares and their price use to remain in the vicinity of 170 to 380.Means if we take current 10 paidup then they use to remain in 17 to 38 rupees range.
The price of these 100 fv stock will go up from 170 to 210 or 240 as soon as the Div is declared and will come back again to 170 as soon as it becomes XD.
If Bonus is declared then it will go to 380or max 400-500.That's it.These the Bears lobby will never let it go above those level and if someone try to take it up from that his stock is hammered in such a way through bear gang that he is out of the market.Such was the power of these bear lobby.When a series of short selling takes place then there is no way an individual can do anything to them.Many tried to swim against the tide of bear cartel but were annihilated or buchtered and became bankrupt and lost everything including their houses and jwelleries.
Then came the entry of Harshad Mehta.He was already there watching all these for sometime.But he took up the challenge singlehandedly and took the fight in bears camp.When he took charge, ACC was 300 and Castrol was 400 and he started making position in ACC.He started buying ACC in Futures which then was known as carryforward trade and the Interest one has to give for carry forward trade for every week , or week by week was known as Badla .
If one has short sold stock and he wants to carry forward it then the int. he use to earn was known as undha badla where the short sellers use to gain badla(interest) and that was a very confusing deal.In the sense that a person who short sell gets the int(badla) from who is long.
Well, Harshad Mehta became bull in that time around late 80's and early 90's and he started buying ACC and Castrol in Longs and in futures( which was known then as carryforward trade).
He kept on buying ACC from 300 , 400, 500, 600, 700 and bears went on selling ACC thinking over 500 ?Oh that can never be the price of ACC.They had never let ACC go beyond that so they went on short selling uptill 1300-1400 and Harshad Mehta kept on buying ACC from bears uptill 1400 and it was alomst all eq was dried up for bears to short sell and they even shortsold over and above that and Harshad Mehta kept buying that came from bears.
Bears were never able to understand how HM is able to buy all they sell.How the money is coming because for any thing to buy , one has to dole out money for that buy he somehow managed with that through banks receipt.
And then the real game started when Dr Manmohan Singh, then Fin Minister, opened up the gates for FII's in 1992 and the market went in frenzy.
ACC went going up and up and it touched Rs.10,000(means 10 paidup, 1000).Now imagine the price people use to see for ACC for decades which is never above 400-500 and it become 10,000!Beras never imagined that ACC can touch Rs 10,000 and no one imagined that.
All these happened in 4-5 months.Bears were in a very bad situation.If we say that avergae price they short sold ACC was a median of 200 and 1400 then it comes to 700 or most probably 800 or 1000 and the price became 10,000 , so the difference between 10,000 and 1000 is a HUGE 9000 rupees! and if someone  has short sold just 1000 shares he has to pay the difference of  rs.90 lacs in year 1992 and rs 90 lac was a very big amt in 1992 .Just imagine those bears who short sold 10,000 or 1 lac or 2 lac or 5 lac shares what they have to dole out as difference?No way they can fulfill the trade.They have to go to Harshad Mehta and tell him to find a way and close the deal at much lower rate.They were running from pillar to post and try to catch someone who has contact with Harshad Mehta so that they can talk with him and make a deal.The bears never let Teji to happen and whoever tried to go agianst them were slaughtered , so when Hrashad has his day it was going to be very difficult for bears to even talk with him.Harshad was the first person who made a BIG dent in the fort of bears.He came out like a LION.After his bullrun people started taking interest in Dalal Street otherwise Dalal Street was a BIG NO for a small person.Harshad Mehta showed what is the meaning of TEJI.What is called TEJI.He showed what happened where the prices can go in a BULL market.To me he was the pioneer of 1st Bull Market in India.Though he was a college drop out, he was very sharp and able to understand what is going to happen how he was going to deal with it.I know many people do not like him due to scam , but for ONCE he showed bears the HELL.He showed BEARS what the HELL looks like which these BEARS were showing to others! Can anyone imagine the scenario at Dalal Street at that time?Bears faces were dimmed and trying to scramble to even talk with Harshad Mehta to make a deal for their shorts in ACC? Dalal Street was overjoyed with Bears annihilated for the first time in decades.They were slaughtered for the first time.Harshad Mehta was a HERO.
One had to just imagine what should be scenario there.......
The word , "SKY IS THE LIMIT "only came after Harshad came on the floor.No one dared to speak, this sentence before Harshad came.
One needs to remember that Harshad Mehta was alone and against him was a whole lobby of bears.A catrel of Bears and to fight with them on each and everyfront was no mean an achievement.He has to play his cards very well otherwise with just one leak of information and Bears will attack him and he is nowhere.That they did at last.Find out where he is getting money and broke the castle which Harshad made.But I have great respect for Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh as well.They were real BULLS.Though their way of operating were not legal but they did it.Taking loans and receipts of crores of rupees and playing the game is not easy.It is a game of 100-200 or even 500-1000 cr game and more.
As I once wrote, keeping market in 20% upper circuit is no child's play which we saw in 2009 when election results were declared.
That is how Harshad Mehta broke the legacy of BEAR LOBBY.He was the first BULL of our market.Though his way of doing things were not correct but he once showed to the BEARS that they can't WIN and dictate the price of any stock at their WILL.
Many bears of that time has now turned BULLS and some are still there playing both the games still.They are BEARS at oppertunity and BULLS at different scenario that takes place.They change their stand according to what is happening in Int market and how BULL are palying their cards.But now we don't see permanent BEAR and that was the difference Harshad Mehta brought to our market.We have bull run as well as bear run.Otherwise in old days it was only bearrun and nothing else.
I remember people use to buy in certian months and sell in certain months.The profit was average 20% and these cycle use to come 3 to 4 times every year.The months were predecided.Buy in these months, sell after 2-3months  take 20 % and again buy after couple of months and sell.....
Some of the Bear operators has such a holding on Dalal Street, which was fondly known as, that they tell the Co Chairman whom to take as Director.He will sit with a wishlist and call CM or send message that keep this person as Dir or your Co price will be broken.Yes, that was how itr was.They even dictate when to give Bonus.They first corner the stock and then pressurize the CM to declare Bonus.Some one will go at the AGM of the Co and will openly pressurize the managemet to declare Bonus.
Those who are new in market do not know anything.You are all just a 1/1000 th percent of a drop in an ocean.Even now what is going on in market , many shouldn't be aware of but there is going on a BIG fight between BULLS and BEARS and each one trying to come one up against each other.It is a MEGA FIGHT BETWEEN BULLS AND BEARS.
These Bear Lobby tried to play with Riliance Ind and Dhirubhai Ambani taught them such a lesson that from there onwards Bears never touched Ril Ind.Bears tried to play the same game with Ril Ind short selling, and Dhirubhai dealt it with BEARS.
That story , about what happened can be read in a Book.I forget the name of the Book but if one will google one will definately find it.It is worth reading how Dhirubhai did it.
The fight between Bulls and Bears are not new in Indian Market nor is in International Market.
This will keep on happening but stock with great fundamentals one will get only in these type of situations.I have been going through the Bulk Deals everyday at bse site and I can say that many HNI's has to sell their holding due to margin pressure etc.
"No stock can go up without operator."
These is a very big sentence but it is true.Stock can never move up over 40-50% withour operator.It is not possible for investor to move a stock over 40-50%.If a stock is giving over 50% return in a year then operator needs to come in picture.The floating stock needs to get dried and there needs to be the paucity of floating stock.The counter then becomes almost dry and then the operation starts.
Hard to explain all these here.I am also not much aware of how things happens but just writing how it happens on my own assumption.
Market will bounce back.This is the fight betwen bulls and bears and nothing else.India is growing.....

Friday, December 3, 2010

Time to Look at SNL Bearing again..?cmp....39

SNL Bearing is my old call given at Rs 11 and then it went on to touch Rs.107 and then went down and down to make a bottom of Rs 32-33 recently and is now again up.
Those who tried to average at 70 or 50 , their fingures were burnt and it went down and down more and more scaring those who bought around 70 or 50.But no worry, it will bounce back and should cross the previous high but will take time.
But after touching low of 32-33 recently it seems that all the poison is taken out and is now on a firmer ground.Even from now it will take time to cross the previous high of 107 but looks like 32-33 should not come again.
So it is buying time again for SNL Bearing.The fundamentals has not changed and the last runup from 11 to 107 was ahead of performance but that is how market is.When momentum starts in any stock, it keeps going up and investor feel they miss the opportunity and when they try to buy high the down journey starts.
Well, now at 39 looks like a good bet for LT , means for couple of years.
It is still NRB Ltd Co and the promoters has not changed and hence still it is strong on fundamental footing.
The thing that needs to watch out closely is what orders SNL is getting and what will be the topline.That is important and with range of products with it, there shouldn't be any problem.
Investors need to look at these type of Cos more and more instead of investing in hearsay TIPS from friends which is make or break like situation.Either one lose the money or make huge but that is not the cup of tea for all.
Here again we can see that SNL is a MNC promoters Co and there can be no scam under it.It is a profit making Co and is in a sector which is growing.The bearing demand will keep on going up with Infra projects coming up.
SNL seems to me the safest bet in present scenario which ia at a very good price at just Rs 30-40.
Remember friends, making money in market is not easy.One always gets carried away by market and advices from friends.
Recent downtrend shows that in just 10 trading session , market was down by just 7-8% but midcaps were down by 30-40% .So it is never easy to make money in stock market.One mistake and all profit in others stock made vanished.
I again write here to my readers.
"Please do not play in F&O and please do not do day trading or any type of trading.Be it a week or 15 days or even a month.Don't borrow money to buy stocks.It is never a great idea any time"

Market never fulfill our wish.It has a very bad habit to prove all of us wrong again and again.When players like Harshad Mehta,Ketan Parekh and some old players who tried to play the market according to their wish didn't obliged them then who are we? We are just peanuts.Respect the market.Learn to respect the market.One think that he will buy for 1 month and take 10-20% profit and sell it,but that rarely happens.Even if it has happened once it will not happen next time or thrid time.Making profit in one trade or couple of trades will give you a false confidence that now you know how market works but that is never true.When I was in India, I have seen people playing in F&O and day trading and they make such a loss that they goes in debt and someone else has to pay for them , like father, brother etc. or if no one is there to pay for the loss then he will go hiding some places or has to leave the city and live somewhere else.Yes, I have seen such people.Even if they come to that city to meet someone they keep hiding from people who owes money from him.That is not a good situation for  anyone.
If wishes were horses.Only those who has the capacity to hold for 3-4 yrs will win.There is no guarentee that stock you have bought will run in 6 months or even after a year so one must always be ready to hold for longer time.
I once wrote that in stock market, it is never 1+1 =2.
I would like to add here that many times 1+1=0 or 1+1 =  -1( minus 1)
as we have seen and even I have experianced that your whole investment becomes Zero and even one goes in loss.One gets in debt and that is where the formula comes 1+1 = -1.
But if you have conviction and if you are doing the right thing at right time then 1+1 = 11 .