Thursday, May 15, 2008

What a day it was...........

Friends,
It has been a wonderful day for investors.I have been talking of the market rally since Apr.I wrote it here that 19k is possible by May/June end when market was around 15300.
Now 15300 is the bottom.We should see 19k as written.
Market was up by over 100 points yesterday and today again it is up by over 300 points.I still insist that please letgo chartist.They are just good for nothing.
Will anyone tell me , which chartist was able to predict two down circuit in 2 days in Jan 21st and 22nd of this year?If anyone has done then he must have not to do anything for whole life.But that was not the case and still people talk in the technical language.When I see this I feel very sad.
Even after seeing this tools becoming useless almost all time people still use to hear them at CNBC, NDTV Profit and also pays huge subscription to technical analyst.
I just got offline message from my friend regarding this chart analyst.
I am pasting it here for my readers.
A client opens an account with a broker who had 25 analysts. After seeking true advice on his position from these analysts he got 2 points on lower side and 2 points on higher side from every analyst. Finally he ended up with getting 50 supports and 50 resistances, surprisingly all different. With gr8 confusion he drank 1 sprite to quench his thirst of true advice. Sprite pite hi use satya ka gyan ho gaya : EVERY POINT ON THE NIFTY IS SUPPORT AND EVERY POINT ON THE NIFTY IS RESISTANCE
baki sab bakwas............


I have been advocating this since many years that this charts theory is not worth looking at.These are for those people who plays daily.There charts may work.But when we are investing then there is no need for charts,no need for support line, breakouts,S1,S2,S3,Resistance....R1,R2,R3...........what is that........Which support you will wait to sell,S1/S2/S3 and at which beark out you will buy to get max profit,R1/R2/R3 !Is there any answer?
I have seen these as some of my friends use to send me such charts.....
These is neccessary for brokerage houses so that people come and play and they earn from the brokeages .If all will become investor and sit on stocks then how will they earn?
Always go by fundamentals.That will always give great return.Fortune has been made only when stocks were hold for LT.But we are even not ready to hold it for 1 year , leave 2-3 years.We actually gets perturbed only in 2-3 months.Like we saw the big correction from Mid January.Masters of the stock market started speaking dooms day and if Shankar Sharma , Marc Faber ,JimRogers say something then I can understand as they have direct exposer to international market and they can see what is happening..., though it is another different thing that they seldom proves correct!.....but when a novice speak opinion and that with full authority I feel laughing.Each and every investor strated speaking about market and the tone was bearish and that was the time to be bullish.
One thing I have observed is that people are very quick to bookprofit.As soon as he gets a 2-3 rs he sells and if the stocks goes down , he will hang on for the loss of 8-10 rs...Why?I don't understand this view.When you are happy with 2-3 rs profit why u r hanging for a loss of 8-10 rs?So people loose 800-1000 rs and gets only 200-300 if he has called correct on any 100 shares traded .Now that is horrible!Horrible mentality!
Now the real bottomline comes here.....One is ready to loose Rs 800-1000 per day but if he has to buy a Van Heusen or Louis Philippe shirt or pant which barely cost the same amt then he says oh ! it is too costly….or if he has to buy a costly TOY /dress for his/hers, son/daughter he will think twice…..or has to help ones brother/sister or nearest friends or relative he will give some reason……..
Remember if one do not trade and do not loose in market it means he is saving that money as amt not lost is as good as saved……so while doing nothing in stock market , while sitting in front of a screen at brokers office is as good as saving money.No one on the earth has made money while trading….otherwise we should have heard that Warren Buffet or Rakesh Jhunjhunwala or Peter Lynch has made money while trading….day trading……but we have never heard of that.
I again reiterate that stay away from day trading and playing in F&O….they are injurous for your financial health.
We use to discuss here many fundamental stocks.Read them.Try to find more facts on your own and then feels good then buy it.Fundamentals has always prevailed over technicals…..Watch CNBC, NDTV Profit etc but keep the vol closed……….except some masters.But that too take as a pinch of salt.
I feel we can see a new high before Diwali and that I have written in my previous post as well.If dollar will appreciate then Gas will become cheap in USA and if that happens then inflation and slow down in USA will be arrested and we will see Dow at 16,000 by the end of this year which I see almost possible….
Just hold stocks which I have discussed if one has bought.That is what I will tell.Patience has always paid.Don’t be sceptic……






22 comments:

  1. Hi Rajeev,
    Another Good article from your side.Well said about the traders and short-minded people.We always need quick money,wnats to become rich blindly by day trading.I was also of the same mentality upto last jan crash.I lost nearly 4 lakhs in F&O.After that I stopped that and focussed on investing for LT.Especially your blog has changed my mentality completely.
    Thank you very much for your time and effort.I pray god for a good job for you soon.

    Thanks
    Sambath

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Rajeev:

    I am a silent reader of your blog , been following updates for alomst more than a month. I am no expert but I have been following markets since 1990. I am also based in US and following the Indian market keenly. I totally agree with your view the Gas prices will come down as dollar is going up and thats +ve for US economic recovery , and also for Indian Exports its a win win for both. So I agree if the trend continue than by DIWALI we should have some positive targets maybe nse/bse will flirt to the past peak levels.
    As you have so much indepth knowledge of markets ,I request you to please come up with a kind of Top 10 script which will fetch handsome returns till Diwali , and other Top 10 list which you think is for a long term horizon. I am ready to take some risk.

    Thanks
    Hiren

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  3. Hi Hiren,
    I am sorry to say that I can't do that.You have to read my past post for my recomendation.
    I do not give personal advice.It then becomes PMS (portfolio mamangement service).I have done in India this PMS with some of my friends.
    But I can think on it if some gr of people can come out for that....My id is there.
    All I can do is just write on stocks.When to buy how much to buy an when to sell at what profit is difficult to write here......and Hiren, this is a free blog.I am not charging anything from anybody.
    I think that is the max I can do here.If someone wants more he should be ready to pay for it.
    But I know Indian mentality.We all are experts...and hence if someone ask for Fees or Commision we are reluctant to pay that.But we are ready to loose money on our own instead of taking some expert opinion.....
    We wants all FREE!
    But if someone wants my personal opinion he will have to pay for that.....

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Rajeev:

    Thanks for the response.

    Hiren

    ReplyDelete
  5. dear rajeev. i completely agree with you. if something is not free, we will never touch it. We are never used to paying for quality. Anyways hope to have an active discussion with you.
    Tc
    Cheers
    Dr.Valia

    ReplyDelete
  6. I am not sure why ppl are so much bullish when we are seeing only worst.

    Inflation near to 8%
    Oil is around $127
    FII selling every day for 500crs

    What is the fundamental of market to cross 19k?

    Thanks
    siva

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear Siva,
    Market always discounts future and not present.Market always see what will be in next 3-6 months.And if market feels that inflation will come down then market will go up before the nos will come out.
    Same is the case for Oil.There is over $600 bn invested in Crude and commodities speculation and
    ....I am seeing Crude at $90-95 in ST.When $600 bn is at stake crude can go up by over $30 in a month..That is what happened...see the march of Crude in last 1 month..
    Market feels that inflation is now at the top and it can only go back from here.It also sees that governement has also taken steps to curb inflation which effects will be seen in next 2-3 months.
    That is why market is going up....I am surprised why you didn't query about this week bull run and perticularly on Friday when inflation nos were shed more then last week and still market ends in green!
    Let market decide its own way.I have predicted 19k on my assumption that crude will retrace and inflation will come down.I may prove wrong.These are all my views.
    Siva, you know me from mmb and that too since long...don't you....!
    Tell me Siva, who is bullish?Is the whole world bullish?If so then that is not a good sign for Bull market.....
    Last,FII's figures are coming good.Watch them....
    Moreover there is no room for prices to go down.Good fundamentals stocks are available at below 10 p/e.....

    ReplyDelete
  8. Srie Infra:
    Someone was asking how I know SREI Infra have stake in Quippo Ltd.
    I read and I pasted it here.
    Now I have one more proof.
    Visit this site:
    http://www.quippoworld.com/shareholding-pattern.html#investo

    and you will find the answer...
    I still say that SREI Infra is a buy.....great story to unfold....

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Rajeev,

    I used to check your postings in MMB from 2004 or 2005. I am one of them who made lot of profit and learnt a lot on LT. I am still learning . Thanks a lot

    This is the first time i am writing in your blog.

    Regards
    Ravishankar

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  10. Hello Nakul,

    Hope you are doing fine in US. It's amazing that you are taking time to write despite going to US and in your job pursuit.

    I am tad unhappy that you do not write at MMB as I do not have access to your blog for various reasons. But anyway you are writing here that's what it all matters.

    I wish you all the best.

    Regards,
    Sandriano

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi Rajiv,

    Thanks for explaining the reasons.

    I know you for quite some time now. And I trust your call 100%. But, rite now most of the companies have posted not that good results. And most the brokerages are downgrading the outlook of many companies because of
    1. high crude price
    2. high inflation
    3. high interest rates,
    4. election in next year & political instability

    I have not seen many ppl giving bullish call. But, very few like you and chakry. Few technical analyst giving a next target to be 19k or 25k and above.

    I just wanted to understand the rational for going bullish now. Last time when we saw the market crash around may 06. Crude was at 90$, inflation was at controllable state. Every thing looked fine to going bulish at that time. But now, all variables for economic outlook is bad.

    But, frankly im 90% invested in market knw. Im just trying to understand the rational for going long.

    Thanks
    siva

    ReplyDelete
  12. Dear Siva,
    Market is all about sentiment and not fundamentals.Only if sentiment will be good will fundamentals prevails otherwise ,how will one explain Tisco went to around 500 something in recent carnage and how it is back to almost 900 again?
    Did Tisco showed something negative that it went down and did it showed some positive annnoucement that it is back to normal?
    Were the Oil , Inflation , results badd in Jan of our corporate?No...they were not bad and still market tanked...Why?brecause sentiment was bad.
    When market goes down and prices starts going down then everyone wants to sell and that starts the downcircuit and that will affect the sentiment.
    Remember ,Stock market world over runs on sentiment.Otherwise if it is running on fundamentals how one will explain the strength of Dow and it is making new highs!After Bear Sterns debacle and billions of dollars writeoff in Subprime mortgage, can one expect Dow to exhibit such a great confidence?
    So, Siva what you see is not there and what you not see is there.
    Stock Markets world over are such.There is nothing like rationale....don't try to read too much.If you do that you will miss the next bull run.
    You said you are 90% invested.Good Hold on.
    But it is now clear that the winners will be changed.The sectors will be changed.While rupee is depreciating IT will be a sector to watch out for.Moreover it is underowned.
    Remember one thing.Buy stocks which are underowned.If all knows the story then it will not run.It is simple and hence before someone see the GEM we should see it early and buy it.
    eg.I was tracking Rohit Ferro since it was in earlt 30's.I didn't buy.I missed it.Now Rohit Ferro is 140!It didn't run in last bull run.But it has started running now.Now Religare has come out with a report with a target of Rs 210.....for a 50% return.
    But imagine if I would have bot it at 35 what would have been the return!
    Last,don't go by brokers.Ther know nothing.They only know that if their clients sells and buys frequently then only they will earn...

    ReplyDelete
  13. This is one of the greate post by rajeev bhai.i use to check this blog before taking buying and selling decision but this time on thursday i think i didn't check this blog and unforunatly i sold 95% of my stack after IIP fig. annouced, and after that market went up and up no matter its inflation going high, crude going high, IIP slowdown.
    This time my entry was rock bottom at around 15000 bought on Rajeev's call and my 70% of money is recovered. thanks rajeev bhai for your gr8 timly call. u found the bottom perfactly. Now i will make new list as justed by rajeev bhai(the sector will change).
    I fully agree with rajeev bhai one should ready to pay for pesonnel opinion.
    I am happy to see google adds on ur blog.
    yesturday i bought artson at 42 which i have sold at the same price. Now i am holding only two stock artson and SBTL from your pick.
    I am looking to buy Apcotax ind. on dip.

    Ahmed

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  14. Dear Rajiv, Thanks for your thoughts on next bull run.

    Really amazing to know you tracked Rohit Ferro long time back.

    You stand unique among others who make the stock run by giving higher targets. And ppl chase the stock till that target and finally recommended guy offloads his stake.

    Thanks you very much for your time and effort.

    Thanks
    siva

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  15. How good is Williamson Magor? ICICI Direct data shows that it's book value is 122.47 (CMP 55.45)! Its eps is 27.89. It's equity seems to be less. Request your views... Is it a good buy ?

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  16. Dear Siva,
    I didn't get what you mean when u write : "You stand unique among others who make the stock run by giving higher targets. And ppl chase the stock till that target and finally recommended guy offloads his stake."

    Please explain, who offloads and who runs the stocks.
    But let me make it clear that I have no connection to anyone nor I use to have any inside info nor I get any inside info nor I try to favour somebody while recomending a stock here so that he can offload it nor I take undue advantage to offload my holding as I am myself is a very very small player and hence the question of offloading do not arises.

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  17. Dear Rajeev

    Greetings. Shiva is right.
    There are many who operate stocks by giving HIGH targets. Because of THESE high targets, many innvestors rush to BUY, and THAT runs the price up. The TARGET givers then sell/offload their holdings in the counter.

    YOU stand out as UNIQUE in spotting, tracking and reccomending scrips much before they become visible and people start chasing them, because of high targets given by " experts"

    Rajeev, I am holding the folowing call of yours : Jayaswal, Artson, XL Telecom.
    I like the prospects of Artson and XL telecom very much.
    By The Way, I am invested in Rohit, and that happened because of your blog. I knew that s.balu Ji of MMB had made a strong recco on it. On your blog someone mentioned EPIPHANY's posts on Facor, Ferro and Rohit. I tracked EPI, found his analysis excellent and took my position in Rohit.

    Please give your view on Compac Disc, if you find time. I am invsted and like it.

    With very warm regards

    KM

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  18. Hi KM,
    Just hold stocks u r holding for a year or two.
    Compact Disc I gave a call at some other forum at just Rs 30 and then it became a history.Actually , there I also recomended Accentia Tech at just Rs 40 and it is now over 200.
    I like Compact Disc and is worth buying as well as holding.
    Artson,Jayaswal Neco and XL Tele are excellent LT bet.
    Buy India Glycols....It is going to be a multibagger from hereon.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi Rajeev,

    I mentioned you stand unique among others who recommend to offload there stake in the company.

    I have seen many times.. sp tulsian, recommends after which there will be lot of volume activity then price falls by 10-15% in next 5 trading sessions. most of cnbc experts are like that. To som e extent even kukku does like that :) atleast I have observed 2 stocks ECE Ind (he gave call at 700, that a target will be 1500 in next one year. But, now he is saying results are bad and stock is at 350)& Nile (He said it is very good at 200, after which stock fell to 120)

    Among these kind of operators, you give genuine calls.

    Thanks
    siva

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  20. Soros warns global boom is over

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7408620.stm

    ReplyDelete
  21. Dear all,
    Please be cautious.
    1. From last five days excluding today FII's very hugely 3000Cr. nearly 0.75 billion.
    2. Mutual fund also sold nearly 500Cr. in last five days.

    3. oil is not going down howering around 130-135.

    some -ve news i have read are:
    1. Wall Street Dismissals, Not as Bad as '01, Signal Worst to Come
    2. Stocks at major risk: Reliance, Ongc, DLF, LNT and NTPC
    Probability for Nifty: 4400 on Expiry.
    Probability for Sensex : 14700 on FNO Expiry

    3. ET: Petrol Prices May Be Raised By Rs 10 to Rs 16 a litre. Expect Inflation Above 10 per cent .

    4. Morgan Stanley-India's True Inflation Figure might be 20 per cent sans subsidies on Oil

    Ahmed

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  22. Dear visitors,

    From so many days everyone is feeling quite bore while working in Indian stock market
    as very less movement is there. NSE and BSE graphs are not moving which are forcing people to just sit back but now market is expected to witness a breakout.

    just enjoy it.

    Moreover now you can have free access to and Stock research reports on our website.

    For any doubt please feel free to ask us.


    Thanks

    Regards

    www.sharetipsinfo.com

    ReplyDelete