Key data affirms the India story........
I read somewhere else.......and pasting here.......some postives news in a grimme scenario.....
Economic indicators for the Indian economy have worsened year-on-year, with the current account deficit widening to $10.72 billion against $6.3 billion for the first quarter of the year, but total direct tax receipts are still at a healthy 30%. The fiscal deficit has reached 87.7% of the target for the year, with seven months still to go. However the government said on Tuesday, it was on target of at least 7.5% growth for 2008-09.
Fund managers and economists that FE spoke with on Tuesday said the scoresheet would still encourage global investors to put their money into the economy. The current account is worse than China’s, but better than Brazil and South Africa. Figures released by RBI shows net capital flows were lower at $13.2 billion in 2008-09 than $ 17.3 billion in the first quarter of 2007-08.
The trade deficit, which measures the difference between exports and imports, rose sharply to $31.6 billion in the first quarter of 2008-09, against $ 20.7 billion in April-June 2007-08, largely because of oil imports. The sharp increase in oil imports reflected the impact of the increasing price of the Indian basket of international crude, RBI said.
Other figures released by the finance ministry on Tuesday showed that while direct tax collections were buoyant, the growth rate was hit due to lower-than-expected advance tax collections and also lower collections from personal income tax. The tax is a leading indicator of performance of the corporate sector. The ministry has received Rs 1,48,200 crore from direct tax but this was lower than previous months when the rate was nearly 40%.
Corporate tax collections rose by 34.5% to about Rs 97,500 crore until the end of September. Revenue from corporate taxes increased by 43.5% until the end of August. But advance tax payments by companies until September 15 increased by 20% to about Rs 45,000 crore, almost the same as netted by the exchequer last fiscal in the second phase. Personal income tax collections have risen by 24% to September 30 to Rs 50,522 crore. The finance ministry has a target of Rs 3.95 lakh crore from this tax.
The Centre also faces additional pressure as its expenditure is rising faster than anticipated in an election year. The fiscal deficit is at Rs 1,16,890 crore, just Rs 16,397 crore shy of the full-year figures. The revenue deficit has also shot up to 177.4% of the full fisc target to amount to Rs 97,879 crore in the period. It was 74.9% of the BE a year ago.
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/key-data-affirms-the-india-story/367979/
Hi Rajeev:
ReplyDeleteI got news from my cousin ICICI bacnk is planning to move its Head office operations from Mumbai Bandra Kurla to Hydrabad.
I am not sure if this is rumours or true news , other news is same cousin is heading Vodafone dealership which has account with ICICI ,he informed me ICICI bank is cutting lines for lot of their employees . Looks like ICICI is in full swing cost cutting and are in real bad shape and there has been long queues outside their branches in Mumbai and Andhra Pradesh.
I am getting news ICICI has lost close to $3Billion which is big amount for India bank.
Do you have any idea what happens to demat account if the bank goes burst , are the shares we hold in Demat accoutn with ICICI also go burst or ???.
Looks like RBI will have to bail out few banks in India
Hiren,
ReplyDeleteAs long as Indian economy can sustain its growth between 7 and 9 there is no problem with indian banks as they have minimal exposure to US assets.
Only problem could arise from joblosses in india which would trigger foreclosures and the same vicious cycle effecting us.
As of now i dont see any of that, but who knows?
Think positive
Sensex @12600
ReplyDeleteheading towards 12000
Shankar Sharma is right in saying that it will reach 12000....
thanks for Mr Sharma once again
Ravi bhai sensex not only heading towrds 12000, It will definately go below 10000 as well. And u will also agree if closely read the world news (see bloomberg).
ReplyDeleteOne more thing i want to say is that many people knows that sensex will touch 35000-40000 and in my openinon 50000. But who are the intelligent people? People who predict the bear phase in b/w.
Lets take exmple of say gremach which has 52 week high 504 and low 46 Rs. Its high was when market was at 21000. now as many people know market will touch 40000 so if u buy greamch at 504 it will touch 10000+ as sensex is going to double 40000. Now think if u predicted bear phase u can easily buy it around 50-60 range and think that when sensex will touch 40000 and gremach 10000+ u will get 20 times (2000%) profit.
So finding the between bear phase very important.
I should say i don't like the stretegy of rajeev bhai (even if i respect him because of his ocean of knowlege abt. indian market) because he is concentrating only on one side. I am sure that he must be knowing abt. this bear phase. But he is only talking abt. +ve as he knows that when market will start going up every one will say Rajeev bhai was correct.
Sorry for the bad english
Ahmed
Thanks Ahmend for the comments.
ReplyDeleteWell,Let me tell you that I had no inch of a clue that Gremach will go to 50 level.
The earning is still good and there are positive news coming as well.
No one in even Indian Market must have thought about this much of meltdown and that too so soon.
But if you and Azad must have seen allthese prices coming...which we are seeing now...like Gremach from 500 to 50, Sujana Towers from 220 to 50, Jyoti Ltd from 180 to 45 etc etc ,then I must say that I am nothing in front of you both and I must write that I have actually no business to write here at my blog...and threby misguiding readers though unintentionally.......
I am actually feeling very bad that I have not been able to predict the market well and hence many readers must have stuck with higher prices and I am feeling extremly sorry for them.
As you and Azad are real great readers of market,able to see the bear Phase in between and hence buying at rock bottom price so that one can get the maximum out of investment.
I hope and wish you make millions and even billions from when you buy at even lower prices as there is still over 2500 points left to go for the down side and as Azad says he can also short the stocks and market(nifty)...and make a killing......
I hope you and Azad will guide readers time and again and warn them whenever you feel I am going wrong as like you both have done in past.....
Thanks again to you and Azad.....for the time you are consuming to read my blog and give your valued opinions.....
Best of Luck.....very eager to see 10k level and see Gremach at 20, Sujana at 20 and Jyoti at 20 and many more stocks that I have recomended here...at almost at 90-95% off the high.....that will be a great buying levels.......
This is once in a life time phenomenon , these type of finanacial crises happens only once in a century...and you both are the great readers that you saw it coming and also were able to see the market levels.....and you have proved that..I applaude your expertise...
Dear rajeev bahi
ReplyDeletei dont agree with you in this matter because you should not aplause them because they didnt informus all when the sensex was 21000 that the sensex will go down to say 10800(my take)maximum.say ing now is no greatness,and if at all they say they have predicted the same,it was when the market was falling and thats not great too.
And sorry to say,still tehy have no fan following or followers ah ah ah.
i totally disagree with you in applauding them and i can forgive them for there English,which was infact quite good but not balaming a,person as positive as you,since it is quite diffcicult to get people who gives hope since hope is always required.
Regards
Ramesh
Dear Ahmedsir,
ReplyDeleteYou seem to be having lots of kowledge and ability in predicting the bear markets. Please tell us how long this current bear phase would last and also please recommend some stocks to enable us to short in this bear market and so we all can make money in this bear market also. Please stick your neck out, like Rajeevji does in bull markets, and come out with list of candidates for shorting in this market. when your calls become success stories, we will all stick our necks out and hail you for your predictions and will say " Ahmedsir said so"
Waiting for your list of stocks to short in this bear market!!
Well said Rajeev bhai,
ReplyDelete"This is once in a life time phenomenon , these type of finanacial crises happens only once in a century"
Thanks for the comments.
Dear Ram i myself refer Rajeev bhai list. Also i am using Rajeevs (with some more point from other site) method to find the stock. Some of the stock i have gone through which i found best among his list.
I can write some of my researched stock here if rajeev bhai permits.
Ahmed
Rajeev-bhai,
ReplyDeleteI'm almost 90% in negative. Lost money, lost peace of mind, lost patience and finally lost health.
I will never ever invest in equities.
US is heading towards depression and the rest of the world too, along with india. Maybe our growth story is still intact but make no mistake that we are living in interconnected world and any -ve news will be magnified and +ve news neglected in these times and FII's will continue to sell and the Bears are using this opportunity to rub salt into our wounds.
DII's are unable to provide any support as they fear redemptions might start and need to have some cushion. And even DII;s have been loosing heavily as FII's have been selling into rallies.
Finally a housing crash in India. The real-estate prices in India have not yet corrected as much as in US & Europe but it wouldn't remain like that for long as our economy starts to slow down jobs will be lost and consumption will be hit, all these will act as fuel to the fire and make things worse.
I have lost hope after being hit deep in the heart and cannot take it anymore.
Thanks for your guidance all these days & everybody good luck....
Looking at the markets falling all over across the globe, my personal opinion is to be extremely cautious and use every opportunity to exit the markets. I personally feel markets will not recover anytime soon and it may be like this well into the year 2010. I am neither a bull nor bear.. just a small investor. It is better to be cautious and safe than be sorry later. Most of us here have not seen anything like bear market and I feel this is going to be very very painful to all, including myself.
ReplyDeletehttp://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Columnists/S_A_Aiyar_Pains_of_a_slowing_economy/articleshow/3561154.cms
ReplyDelete------------------------------------
SWAMINOMICS
Pains of a slowing economy
5 Oct 2008, 0203 hrs IST, Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar
I am not usually a pessimist. But i predict that India will suffer a lot of pain in the next 18 months, as the economy slows down along with the curr
ent global slowdown.
The US, Europe and Japan are sinking into recession together. Forget claims that India has decoupled from the US and can keep growing fast regardless. India and most developing countries are indeed much less dependent on the US economy than in the past. So, Indian growth will be dented rather than smashed. GDP growth will slide from 9 % last year to 7% this financial year, and to maybe 6% next year.
Now, 7% is a miracle growth rate by historical standards. You might think that declining from super-miraculous to merely miraculous growth cannot be particularly painful. You would be dead wrong. The direction of change matters more than the absolute level. Rising from 5% to 7% is blissful, but falling from 9% to 7% is painful. And a subsequent tumble to 6% will be more painful still.
To appreciate why the direction of change matters so much, recall the 1990s. India went bust in 1991, reformed by globalising, and reaped the reward of fast growth. GDP growth averaged 7.5% in the three-year period 1994-97. India’s growing integration with the world economy enabled it to share in the global economic boom of those years. Foreign institutional investors flooded into all emerging markets, including India, sending stock market prices spiralling.
Indian optimists thought that miraculous growth was here to stay. But along came the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and the Indian economy slumped along with the global economy. Indian GDP growth averaged just 5.5% in the next five years.
Now, 5.5 % may not sound too bad, just a modest deceleration from the 7.5% of the preceding boom. Indeed, India’s 5.5% at the time was one of the fastest growth rates in the world. Yet, the change in direction, from acceleration to deceleration, caused enormous pain.
Industrial growth crashed in 1997-98, and barely limped forward for years. Many industries had borrowed massively during the mid-1990s boom to invest in world-class new plants, for which there was suddenly no demand. Huge projects were abandoned unfinished, with companies defaulting on mega loans. These financial defaults brought the lending institutions also to the verge of bankruptcy, from which they were saved mainly by creative accounting and a friendly RBI. Medium and small companies crashed along with their larger brethren. Employment went into a tailspin. Stock markets crashed and companies stopped repaying fixed deposits, so household investors suffered trauma.
The budgets of the central and state governments assumed steady growth of revenue year after year. But the 1997 slowdown hit tax collections. Meanwhile, a bumper Pay Commission award hugely inflated the wage bills of central and state governments. So, governments, corporations, employees and household investors were all sucked downward into a whirlpool of distress. The only saving grace was the IT boom, sparked by the global Y2K scare. But that turned out to be a bubble, and it burst in 2001.
Difficult though these years were, they did not witness economic collapse. India did not revert to the old Hindu rate of growth of 3.5%, witnessed in the three decades after independence. GDP growth in 1997-2002 averaged a solid 5.5%. But the direction of change was downward, not upward, and that was enough to cause widespread distress.
I fear we are about to see a repetition of that process. As in the 1990s, a booming world economy first lifted Indian growth (and stock markets) to new heights for several years, giving rise to the illusion of permanency. As in the 1990s, the subsequent global slump is going to cause an Indian slump too. As in the 1990s, the fiscal problems of the government are going to be exacerbated by a Pay Commission award.
However, we are much better prepared for this downturn than we were in the 1990s. Our foreign exchange reserves are almost $300 billion, cushioning our balance of payments. Corporations have not gone on a borrowing spree paying 20% interest, as they did in the 1990s - they have large cash reserves, modest debt-equity ratios, and interest rates are much lower today. The banking system is in relatively good shape. The latest Pay Commission award this time is less onerous than the 1997 one. Our savings rate has crossed 30%, and can keep financing a healthy rate of investment. Infrastructural sectors like telecom, power, roads, and ports will be only minimally affected by a recession.
Nevertheless, pain will be widespread and sometimes deep. Income and job opportunities will slacken, sometimes dramatically. Many companies will suffer shrinkage or bankruptcy, especially small ones. Boom sectors like transport, restaurants, trade, real estate and exports will go into reverse gear. Credit will tighten, for consumers as well as companies. Corporate profits will slump. The revenues of central and state governments will fall, curbing their ability to alleviate distress. The stock markets will fall further, and the Sensex may fall below 10,000. Tighten your seat belts: we are running into rough weather.
the prediction of mr Shankar Sharma come true... Rajeev do you have any answer now???
ReplyDeleteyou continue to use almost abusive language against Mr Shankar Sharma so many times by disagreeing on his prediction that market will fall below 11000... WHY???
now see by your naked eyes the dipping sensex
hi deepak
ReplyDeleteurs truly shankar sharma has been involved in frauds and under sebi scanner..whole world knows about it... u know this joker kankar sharma predicted sensex to go to 7000 levels when sensex went on to 21000.. where were u then.. i didnt hear anything from u then.. now predicting when the world is falling is nothing great... any tom dick and harry can do that.. so be careful in whatever u say..
bye
ravi
dear rajeev,
ReplyDeletei had bot abc india @68.now that it has gone to 23 shud i sell or accumulate more or switch it with some other stock like dcb or any other that u suggest.
pl reply,regds rashmi