Well friends,
The destruction has already happened and market world over may even go lower from here but how much it can go is nobody's guess.
Those who said that below 10,000 sensex for Indian market also went wrong.As we are at sub 9k levels.
So there is no sanity now seen.
Vallabh Bhansali has very very rightly written about our market.It is a real cracker if one understands his whole view and what he is telling.His interview says many things.
But the Silver lining I am seeing is as under:
1)Crude is going down.
2)Commodities is going down.
3)Inflation is and will go down
4)Int rate will go down......
These are all necessary ingradients for next bull run.
Among the above, first 2 will be due to demand distruction......world over and that is going to be a big big trigger in next year for our market.We will atleast grow at 6% GDP and if the above happens which will then we can touch 10% GDP by 2010-1011..
It is anybodies guess that when Crude comes down from $146 to $60 and even less the things will get cheaper.Commodities is down that will add to the bottomline of the earnings.
Inflation is related to Crude and commodities.
Int Rate has to come down if inflation is going down.No one is going to borrow at high Int rate when there is no business.
So we in India should be back to where we started in 2003 where inflation was 4-5% and Int rate were below 6%.That is going to be the NEXT LAUNCHING PAD FOR THE NEXT BULL MARKET THAT WILL TAKE PLACE.
And remember friends, market discounts all these much earlier then lay investors could understand.
I think will see a good turn around after June 2009.......
as i use to say always,Thanks for the positive words,it is sooothing and welcome back
ReplyDeleteJust the same points that i have in my mind. Such opportunities are once in a lifetime. People who buy now are the ones who will make those elusive multibagger returns
ReplyDeleteI hope u remember me Rajeev. Anyways, the market has once again proved that u are just a perma bull, just like many ppl i see around me. They are just married to a few numbers and thats it.
ReplyDeleteAt the same time, since i have been proven right since i last posted on ur blog, lemme take that forward. THIS MARKET IS NOT COMING BACK IN AT LEAST A DECADE. And more crackpots try to fight it by banning short sale etc, the longer the pain will be.
ANyways, happy diwali.
Dear Rajeevji,
ReplyDeleteWelcome back and, as usual, nice to see your positive comments.
The earlier bull run was a result of immense liquidity fuelled by FIIs' pumping money into the Indian markets, more so the profits from playing the commodities all over the world. That is the reason, we saw bull markets in all asset classes and the profits got invested in everything from rice.wheat, oil and what not.I would say, even the Indian growth story was fuelled by large scale investments by such money. I think such liquidity driven stories are over and from hereon, the scene will be stock specific and we should not expect the mind boggling returns that we experienced. I would say, with due respects to Rajeevji's views,that the bull story is dead. As again, I would love to be proved wrong.
I fully agree with u. I am also thinking the same.
ReplyDeleteMy comments:
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Ahmed