Read somewhere and am posting for readers.....
Really a class analogy..
An Old Story:The Ant works hard in the withering heat all summer building its house andlaying up supplies for the winter.
The Grasshopper thinks the Ant is a fool and laughs & dances & plays thesummer away.
Come winter, the Ant is warm and well fed. The Grasshopper has no food orshelter so he dies out in the cold.Indian Version:The Ant works hard in the withering heat all summer building its house andlaying up supplies for the winter.The Grasshopper thinks the Ant's a fool and laughs & dances & plays thesummer away.Come winter, the shivering Grasshopper calls a press conference anddemands to know why the Ant should be allowed to be warm and well fedwhile others are cold and starving.NDTV, BBC, CNN show up to provide pictures of the shivering Grasshoppernext to a video of the Ant in his comfortable home with a table filledwith food.
The World is stunned by the sharp contrast. How can this be that this poorGrasshopper is allowed to suffer so?
Arundhati Roy stages a demonstration in front of the Ant's house.
Medha Patkar goes on a fast along with other Grasshoppers demanding thatGrasshoppers be relocated to warmer climates during winter .
Mayawati states this as `injustice' done on Minorities.
Amnesty International and Koffi Annan criticize the Indian Government fornot upholding the fundamental rights of the Grasshopper.
The Internet is flooded with online petitions seeking support to theGrasshopper (many promising Heaven and Everlasting Peace for promptsupport as against the wrath of God for non-compliance) .
Opposition MPs stage a walkout. Left parties call for 'Bengal Bandh' inWest Bengal and Kerala demanding a Judicial Enquiry.
CPM in Kerala immediately passes a law preventing Ants from working hardin the heat so as to bring about equality of poverty among Ants andGrasshoppers.
Lalu Prasad allocates one free coach to Grasshoppers on all Indian RailwayTrains, aptly named as the 'Grasshopper Rath'.
Finally, the Judicial Committee drafts the ' Prevention of TerrorismAgainst Grasshoppers Act' [POTAGA], with effect from the beginning of thewinter.
Arjun Singh makes 'Special Reservation ' for Grasshoppers in EducationalInstitutions & in Government Services.
The Ant is fined for failing to comply with POTAGA and having nothing leftto pay his retroactive taxes,it's home is confiscated by the Governmentand handed over to the Grasshopper in a ceremony covered by NDTV.
Arundhati Roy calls it ' A Triumph of Justice'.
Lalu calls it 'Socialistic Justice '.
CPM calls it the ' Revolutionary Resurgence of the Downtrodden '
Koffi Annan invites the Grasshopper to address the UN General Assembly.
Many years later....
The Ant has since migrated to the US and set up a multi-billion dollarcompany in Silicon Valley, 100s of Grasshoppers still die of starvation despite reservation somewherein India, .......AND
As a result of loosing lot of hard working Ants and feeding thegrasshoppers, . . . . . .
. . . . India is still a developing country…!!!
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 23, 2009
Bulls has taste the Blood............
Friends,
Bulls has taste the blood in Akruti Ltd.They have been able to win the game with bears while taking Akruti Ltd from 550 to 2500 , means 5 times in just 3 months.
Bears has been forced to give up.This shows that Bears has become overconfident and they thought that everything goes as per their whims and analysis.But they have been proved wrong and I am sure that this will go on happening in future as well.
The Cash gr has been so much down there is nothing to talk off other then just buying stocks that can become multibaggers .I have already listed them here.
Even heard that many big names who were bearish has cutoff their short position.I am of the view that stock specific approach will work.They can be battered or go up according to the interest of the operators.But we may not see sensex below 7k......
Preelection rally has started and will end on the eve of the day when Voting would start.There can be downside after that due to uncertainty in poll and bears may take full advantage of that and try to break the market.
But as soon as a new government takes oath we should see a new bull run unfolding in India.
I have written here that keep a tab on Crude prices.Crude is above $50 and that shows that demand is going to increase in the world and that is why Crude is going up.I need not to write what happens when demand increases in the world.
But one thing is sure and that is Bears are making mistakes and that is due to overconfidence and they are repeating the same mistake Bulls made in Jan 08.
Bulls has taste the blood in Akruti Ltd.They have been able to win the game with bears while taking Akruti Ltd from 550 to 2500 , means 5 times in just 3 months.
Bears has been forced to give up.This shows that Bears has become overconfident and they thought that everything goes as per their whims and analysis.But they have been proved wrong and I am sure that this will go on happening in future as well.
The Cash gr has been so much down there is nothing to talk off other then just buying stocks that can become multibaggers .I have already listed them here.
Even heard that many big names who were bearish has cutoff their short position.I am of the view that stock specific approach will work.They can be battered or go up according to the interest of the operators.But we may not see sensex below 7k......
Preelection rally has started and will end on the eve of the day when Voting would start.There can be downside after that due to uncertainty in poll and bears may take full advantage of that and try to break the market.
But as soon as a new government takes oath we should see a new bull run unfolding in India.
I have written here that keep a tab on Crude prices.Crude is above $50 and that shows that demand is going to increase in the world and that is why Crude is going up.I need not to write what happens when demand increases in the world.
But one thing is sure and that is Bears are making mistakes and that is due to overconfidence and they are repeating the same mistake Bulls made in Jan 08.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Some A gr stocks...........
Friends,
I have been asked to write some A gr stocks which can be multibagger.I usually do not write A gr stocks as I feel all A gr stocks are great in fundamentals hence there is no need to look at those.But when the valuations has come so much down and they are going abegging and when one of the reader Harpreet Kuar has asked me I thought let me write it here the list of my choice as many other would also be seeking such type of list.....
Here is my choice:
1)ABB
2) Seimens
3)L&T
4)Areva T&D
5)Alsthom Project
6)Punj Lloyd
7)Bhushan Steel
8)GMDC
9)HDIL
10)Jubiliant Orga
11)Madras Cement
12)Rolta
13)Sesa Goa
14)Torrent Power
15)Guj State Petro
16)Jindal Steel
The list has gone to 16 stocks and I hope that it is OK............
If someone can invest in these then they can earn multibagger returns, atleast 3-4 times in next 3-4 yrs.
I would like to make a special mention on Banking and Finance sector.
Banking stocks like Andhra Bank,Federal Bank, Karur Vysya ,Syndicate Bank,BOB,IDBI, IFCI are stocks worth looking in for......these sector can outperform in a big big way any time.
Let me write one more thing and that is I have discussed Satyam when it was around 20 .
Satyam has doubled from there and my assumption that L&T can takeover also coming true.If Satyam goes to L&T then we can see a price of Rs 150 for Satyam.The reason behind it is L&T has bought Satyam at around Rs 150 before the news broke of scam by Raju and L&T now owns 12% stake in Satyam.
I have been asked to write some A gr stocks which can be multibagger.I usually do not write A gr stocks as I feel all A gr stocks are great in fundamentals hence there is no need to look at those.But when the valuations has come so much down and they are going abegging and when one of the reader Harpreet Kuar has asked me I thought let me write it here the list of my choice as many other would also be seeking such type of list.....
Here is my choice:
1)ABB
2) Seimens
3)L&T
4)Areva T&D
5)Alsthom Project
6)Punj Lloyd
7)Bhushan Steel
8)GMDC
9)HDIL
10)Jubiliant Orga
11)Madras Cement
12)Rolta
13)Sesa Goa
14)Torrent Power
15)Guj State Petro
16)Jindal Steel
The list has gone to 16 stocks and I hope that it is OK............
If someone can invest in these then they can earn multibagger returns, atleast 3-4 times in next 3-4 yrs.
I would like to make a special mention on Banking and Finance sector.
Banking stocks like Andhra Bank,Federal Bank, Karur Vysya ,Syndicate Bank,BOB,IDBI, IFCI are stocks worth looking in for......these sector can outperform in a big big way any time.
Let me write one more thing and that is I have discussed Satyam when it was around 20 .
Satyam has doubled from there and my assumption that L&T can takeover also coming true.If Satyam goes to L&T then we can see a price of Rs 150 for Satyam.The reason behind it is L&T has bought Satyam at around Rs 150 before the news broke of scam by Raju and L&T now owns 12% stake in Satyam.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
If someone is caught in shorting nifty.......will SEBI take out Nifty from F&O?...........
Friends,
I have been tracking Indain market very keenly.
I have seen that Akruti Ltd is out of F&O.According to me that is a bad decision by SEBI and I strongly protest it.
OK ,Now let us see how it works.
We have seen that Bears have been breaking the stocks since last 15 months and they were playing hand in glove with FII's who wanted to sell India.The Bears operators had shorted the stocks first in F&O along with FII's in market and then FII sold in market the delivary they wanted to sell.They sell in cash market the delivary and prices goes down and hence they earns in F&O as they have shortsold the stock and prices are going down due to selling in cash market , means delivary.
That is how bears have made billions of money and Bulls have lost billions as well.
That is a part of the game.Those who have information and support WINS!
And that is what happened in Akruti Ltd.The eq is around 6.6 cr and hence the shares are 66 lacs .Out of that 89% stake is with promoters and 5% is with private corporate bodies.Hence only 6% is with the public and that means that only 3.7 lacs shares was there as a floating stock.
But the Real Estate sector was down and hence all the stocks like DLF, Unitech,Unity Infra,Prajay,HDIL,etc etc were beated down without seeing at the fundamentals.Many have now bigger BV then the price quoting.That was rediculous.
But that was the part of the game and Bulls never complained about it nor went to SEBI to look into the matter and bail the culprit.Bulls took that loss in their stride.
Now in Akruti Ltd Bears tried to play the same game but they got trapped and that is also part of the game.It is heard that many FII's and a big operator who made billons of rupees in this bear market has lost almost 70 % of profit in just one stock and that is Akruti Ltd.
When SEBI annouced that Akruti Ltd will be taken off from the F&O I was surprised.What is the reason that Akruti is taken out from F&O?Because it went too high?Doubled in a month?But that is what is F&O is......it is all speculation and if SEBI do not wants to have that happen then they needs to ban the whole F&O and not only one stock.Suppose someone has shorted Nifty and got trapped and Nifty goes up and up, WILL SEBI BAN NIFTY FROM DEALING IN F&O?
That is the part of the game and who gets support wins.
Anything played within the rules is appropriate and no one has the authoritty to change it.SEBI step is just discrimination tilted in favour of Bears .
When SEBI declared that all promoters need to annouce how much shares they pledge , that decision went against Bulls but they never complained.They took it in their stride.Then why Bulls have to pay for the mistake they never made.It was bears who shorted Akruti and they miscalculated and they are losing.There is no need for SEBI to come inbetween.Let Bulls and Bears sort it out.That is their prerogative.
I have been tracking Indain market very keenly.
I have seen that Akruti Ltd is out of F&O.According to me that is a bad decision by SEBI and I strongly protest it.
OK ,Now let us see how it works.
We have seen that Bears have been breaking the stocks since last 15 months and they were playing hand in glove with FII's who wanted to sell India.The Bears operators had shorted the stocks first in F&O along with FII's in market and then FII sold in market the delivary they wanted to sell.They sell in cash market the delivary and prices goes down and hence they earns in F&O as they have shortsold the stock and prices are going down due to selling in cash market , means delivary.
That is how bears have made billions of money and Bulls have lost billions as well.
That is a part of the game.Those who have information and support WINS!
And that is what happened in Akruti Ltd.The eq is around 6.6 cr and hence the shares are 66 lacs .Out of that 89% stake is with promoters and 5% is with private corporate bodies.Hence only 6% is with the public and that means that only 3.7 lacs shares was there as a floating stock.
But the Real Estate sector was down and hence all the stocks like DLF, Unitech,Unity Infra,Prajay,HDIL,etc etc were beated down without seeing at the fundamentals.Many have now bigger BV then the price quoting.That was rediculous.
But that was the part of the game and Bulls never complained about it nor went to SEBI to look into the matter and bail the culprit.Bulls took that loss in their stride.
Now in Akruti Ltd Bears tried to play the same game but they got trapped and that is also part of the game.It is heard that many FII's and a big operator who made billons of rupees in this bear market has lost almost 70 % of profit in just one stock and that is Akruti Ltd.
When SEBI annouced that Akruti Ltd will be taken off from the F&O I was surprised.What is the reason that Akruti is taken out from F&O?Because it went too high?Doubled in a month?But that is what is F&O is......it is all speculation and if SEBI do not wants to have that happen then they needs to ban the whole F&O and not only one stock.Suppose someone has shorted Nifty and got trapped and Nifty goes up and up, WILL SEBI BAN NIFTY FROM DEALING IN F&O?
That is the part of the game and who gets support wins.
Anything played within the rules is appropriate and no one has the authoritty to change it.SEBI step is just discrimination tilted in favour of Bears .
When SEBI declared that all promoters need to annouce how much shares they pledge , that decision went against Bulls but they never complained.They took it in their stride.Then why Bulls have to pay for the mistake they never made.It was bears who shorted Akruti and they miscalculated and they are losing.There is no need for SEBI to come inbetween.Let Bulls and Bears sort it out.That is their prerogative.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Fossil Fuel.................
ENERGY Sustaining Sustainability With VCs furiously pumping in billions, alternatives to fossil fuel seem more plausible
P. Hari in San Francisco13 March 2009
UNCLOGGING THE PIPE: The high environmental cost of fossil fuels such as oil is leading companies to invest in cleaner options (Bloomberg)The renewable energy industry is built on dreams. One of the fondest of these dreams is to produce a renewable hydrocarbon fuel, so that we can continue driving our cars without feeling any guilt. It is a dream that fuels several hundred companies globally, a large number of them in the US. Industry observers consider Sapphire Energy, a 2007 start-up based in San Diego in California, as one of the hottest of these biofuel companies. Sapphire has apparently developed a process to produce hydrocarbons petrol, diesel and aviation fuel directly from algae using sunlight, and they are chemically identical to those derived from crude oil. Sapphire says it is a few critical steps away from supplying the fuel to petrol stations.
In the past 18 months of its existence, Sapphire has supposedly proven the technology and supplied fuel for a few biofuel-based experiments, including test flights by Continental Airlines and Japan Airlines. The next few years would determine if this process would work on a commercial scale. Sapphires goal is to start producing 300 barrels per day (bpd) in three years, and 10,000 bpd in five years. Once we demonstrate the process and economics work in 10,000 bpd, ramping up to hundreds of thousands or more of barrels per day is simply a matter of investment, says Tim Zenk, Sapphires vice-president of corporate affairs.
We do not know yet whether it would work on a global scale, but several high-profile investors are backing the company ARCH Venture Partners, the Wellcome Trust, Venrock and Bill Gatess Cascade Investment. But then Sapphire has stiff competition from dozens of other VC-backed companies, also chasing much the same dream. Companies that claim similar results with different approaches include Solix Biofuels in Colorado, Solazyme in San Francisco and Synthetic Genomics in Sausalito in California. Florida-based PetroAlgae says it is close to completing a 5,000 gallon-per-acre plant to produce hydrocarbon fuel using algae. There are also many other firms trying to produce other environment-friendly fuels the label is essential such as ethanol from biomass.
A LONG JOURNEY
The search for clean fuel alternatives started more than a century ago
1876: William Adams discovers that Selenium produces electricity when exposed to sunlight1908: Ford makes a vehicle that can run on ethanol1954: Bell Labs develops the first photovoltaic cell1973: The Satellite Skylab is powered by solar cells1977: Brazilian scientists invent and patent the first industrial process for biodiesel1978: The US congress passes the Energy Tax Act, encourages households to invest in energy conservation, wind and solar energies1979: firm called Arco Solar embarks on a venture to create the worlds biggest photo voltaic manufacturing facility; Ethanol starts becoming popular1985: The University of New South Wales creates solar cells with 20 per cent efficiency1999: Installed Capacity of solar cells cross 1 gigawatt2005: VCs begin funding renewable energy companies in large numbers2006: Boeingspectrolab develops solar cells with 40 per cent efficiency
In the past one year, VCs in the US have been pouring money into biofuel firms. Biofuels Digest, a US publication that tracks investments in the sector, says that $680.2 million (about Rs 3,537 crore) of venture capital was invested in biofuel firms last year. Of this, $437 million was for cellulosic ethanol and $175.9 million for algae-based firms. That is a pittance compared to what is spent on searching for new oilfields to exploit, but a huge jump over the kind of funding biofuel start-ups could hope to attract five years ago. Still biofuel is only the second-most favourite area of renewable energy VCs. Their top choice is without doubt solar energy. In the past four years, VCs in the US invested $4.5 billion in solar energy start-ups.
VC investments in renewable energy continued throughout 2008 despite weak general economic conditions. According to the Cleantech Group, a research firm in San Francisco, $8.4 billion was invested in renewable energy globally in 2008. Greentech Media, a similar organisation, also based in San Francisco, puts the figure at $7.7 billion, but without including many deals in India and China. Solar energy firms mopped up $1.7 billion of VC money last year, and $4.5 billion in the past four years. A large number of these deals were at seed-stage, or Series A, funding. The money pumped into clean tech firms has resulted in a tremendous spurt in innovation. But industry watchers are worried that if the recession continues, the money might slow down and the momentum of innovation would also slow down. Says Brian Fan, senior director of research at the Cleantech Group, The overall funding will slow down this year, and we expect as much as 50 per cent valuations to be reset.
However, early-stage funding could be different. Early-stage VC deals in all sectors are still continuing, according to the MoneyTree report from PricewaterhouseCoopers. The number of VC deals dropped in the last quarter of 2008, but the number of seed and early-stage deals were larger than in any quarter between 2002 and 2006. Even during a recession, VCs are keen to fund innovative ideas. However, highly capital intensive late-stage deals may be a different matter. From among the thousand-odd clean tech start-ups funded in the past few years, only those with breakthrough technologies will get the investments necessary for commercial scale plants. Real innovation always gets funded, says Wilber James, managing partner of Rockport Capital Partners. Many corporate giants started during recessions. Would some of the companies funded in the past three years turn out to be the next Chevron or Shell or GE?Redefining The Solar Energy MapThere seems to be an inevitability to the solar energy industry that attracts entrepreneurs, investors and innovators. Selling solar energy modules and panels is in real danger of becoming a commodity business, but that does not prevent entrepreneurs and VCs from looking for innovation in a solar energy firm. One of the largest fund-raising ever in the sector was done by the Fremont-based Solyndra. It raised $600 million in its four years of existence. Solyndra has a plant that makes 120 megawatts of solar panels, and another one being built to make another 500 megawatts. It claims to have $1.2 billion worth of orders already.
Innovation in solar cells often focuses on science: to produce more efficient or cheaper solar cells. Solyndra relies on pure engineering to improve efficiencies of the system and reduce cost. All conventional solar modules are flat and mounted in flat panels. Solyndras module is cylindrical. This simple idea combined with some innovation has purportedly increased the efficiency of solar panels by roughly 25 per cent.
RAY OF HOPE: While companies such as Sapphire use algae to produce hydrocarbons (left), others use concentrators to tap solar energy
A flat panel, to be always perpendicular to the suns rays, has to keep tracking the sun, and thus has to change orientation. Solyndras way of tackling this is to make the modules cylindrical. These modules are designed in a way to capture light from all sides. Direct light from one side, diffused light from the other side, and reflected light from the bottom. The hollow cylindrical modules also allow wind to pass through them without damage. Solyndras panel is apparently tested for winds up to 120 miles per hour.
Solyndra and other solar panel firms are betting on one thing: commercial rooftop space across the world. In the US alone, there is 30 billion sq. ft of space available, which can translate into 150 gigawatts of power if fully used. The space available globally is probably three times as much. We need to optimise the cost for commercial rooftops, says Kelly Truman, vice-president of marketing in Solyndra.
As all observers of the industry know, the main problem with solar power is the high cost. Making more efficient solar cells is one way of tackling this problem. The other one is to drive efficiencies into the manufacturing process and to develop low-cost materials so that the total cost of the system comes down. Among established players, SunPower is an example of the first type of companies: for some time, it has been making the most efficient solar cells in the world. First Solar is an example of the second: its manufacturing techniques claim to make solar electricity cheaper than ever. Start-ups are challenging both sets of companies through multiple approaches and making a big impact on the solar energy map.
For example, the Oakland, California-based BrightSource is building the worlds largest solar power plant in Mojave Desert near Los Angeles. Capable of producing 1.3 gigawatts of power when complete in 2013, this plant would use mirrors called heliostats to concentrate solar radiation, which in turn is used to generate steam to drive turbines and generate electricity. The company sources its technology from a subsidiary in Israel, where it is building a 100-megawatt and a 200- megawatt plant.
Concentrating the suns rays is an approach followed by several firms around the world, and many of them are claiming efficiencies much higher than plain photovoltaic cells. In Israel, start-up Zenith Solar has licensed concentrator technology from the countrys Ben-Gurion University and Fraunhofer Institute in Germany. The firm claims to increase efficiency five times while reducing the cost of photovoltaic cells from 80 per cent of the system to 10 per cent.
Prism Solar Technologies in New York uses holograms to concentrate solar energy, and reduces the amount of silicon needed in a panel and, thus, the cost. In Australia, Sunengy uses concentrators to focus solar energy on to solar cells partially submerged in water. Water keeps the system cool and protects it from high winds. Research papers published from Sunengy claim that costs can go to less than $1 a watt (currently solar electricity costs roughly $2 a watt). Says Philip Connor, inventor of the system and founder of Sunengy, We need to achieve 50 per cent cost reductions in two years, 75 per cent in four, and coal replacement soon thereafter.
Companies described above represent a fraction of the innovation happening in this field. Nanosolar in the Silicon Valley literally prints solar cells on a substrate, which supposedly speeds up manufacturing by about 100 times; Nanosolar has received $500 million in VC funding. A start-up from MIT, 1366, is using very thin wires to reduce the cost of conventional silicon solar cells, and bring solar energy costs on a par with electricity from coal by 2012. And it is a sector that is attracting global corporate giants. Samsung, IBM and Intel are all nurturing plans to enter the solar energy market. Not surprisingly, Lux Research predicts the solar energy market to increase its size from $36 billion (5.5 gigawatts) to $70 billion (18.5 gigawatt) by 2013, with a few bumps on the way in the next two years. Some industry observers compare the advent of low-cost solar cells at lower efficiencies to the situation in the computer industry in the 1980s. The current state of thin film technology is like the time when PCs made their appearance, says Keshav Prasad, vice-president of business development at Signet Solar, a Silicon Valley firm. PCs were much slower than the mainframes, but they caught on because they were much cheaper.
Playing Catch-up While the solar energy industry seems to be on the verge of explosive growth, the biofuel industry seems set to catch up a few years later. For some time now, biomass energy, with ethanol from corn being the front-runner, has been criticised as not being so environment-friendly. In fact, studies had shown that corn-based ethanol creates more carbon emissions than fossil fuels in the long run. This is because of fertiliser use and land degradation, among other factors. Now, a Chicago-based company claims to put biomass-based ethanol as a top contender among carbon-neutral fuels.
It is difficult to manufacture ethanol economically with a low overall carbon footprint. One way to make ethanol economically is to learn how to convert any piece of biomass into a fuel, which obviates the need to use fertilisers or use areas meant for crops to generate the feedstock. There are several such research projects by firms, but Coskata is among the few that have processes that can use a variety of inputs. Its ethanol plants can take in any feedstock: scraps of wood, any twigs or leaves, old tyres or almost anything that has organic carbon in it.
The firm has proprietary microorganisms that can eat up carbon-based material and convert it finally to ethanol. But ethanol is not as energy dense compared to fossil fuels. We can compensate for this lower density through lower prices for ethanol, says Wes Bolson, chief marketing officer of Coskata. The company will be ready with a semi-scale plant by June, and is also designing a full-scale plant.
Biofuel firms have received a lot of investment, but many industry observers think that the sector has thrived on hype as well. Consider algae-based hydrocarbons, for example. There is no doubt that firms such as Sapphire, Synthetic Genomics and others are innovative. But their technology is still untested on a commercial scale. No one has been able to scale algae-based methods, says Eric Wesoff, senior analyst at Greentech Media. There is the additional issue of land area necessary to manufacture these fuels. However, recent studies have shown that biofuels are sustainable on a global scale. In a paper published two months ago, scientists Jürgen Metzger of University of Oldenburg and Aloys Huettermann from Germanys University of Goettingen, showed that the world demand of energy by 2030 based on projections by the International Energy Agency can be met by cellulosic biomass grown in degraded land.
GAINING HEIGHTS: Companies are driving efficiencies into manufacturing of solar panels to tackle the problem of high costs(Bloomberg)The economical viability of biofuels is difficult to calculate as the price of oil keeps fluctuating. Sapphire, for example, claims to make its bio-crude compete with oil when at prices of $60-80 per barrel (not considering subsidies). The price of crude is currently around $47 a barrel. So at current prices, bio-crude cannot compare with traditional crude. On the other hand, if crude oil prices are consistently over $100 a barrel, bio-crude suddenly becomes a very viable option. Observers cite the instability in the oil market as the major reason why renewable energy investments do not make economic sense (electricity prices, although different in different markets, are not so volatile). However, in spite of this volatility, biofuel companies have developed an impressive range of lab-scale technologies.
Several firms are developing technologies for biomass ethanol. POET, a grain-based ethanol firm in South Dakota, US, is building a 25-million gallon biomass ethanol plant in Iowa, to be ready in two years. Range Fuels, a Colorado-based firm backed by Khosla Ventures, will finish building its cellulosic ethanol plant in Georgia, US, by the end of this year. Sekab in Sweden is also close to commercialising cellulosic ethanol. As mentioned, Sapphire, Solis and Solazyme are developing renewable crude.
Seambiotic, whose parent company is in Israel, uses flue gas from coal power plants to grow algae, which in turn is used to produce biodiesel. The California-based Amyris Biotechnoloiges tries to reprogram the DNA of microbes to make renewable diesel and jet fuel. In a few years time, we may know if these processes succeed, or whether one of these companies can become an energy industry giant.
The Buck Doesnt Stop Here Solar Energy and biofuels have got the attention of VCs in the past few years, but there are a few other promising technologies too. Wind power and geothermal energy are no longer the hot favourites of VCs. There are, however, technologies within these areas that look promising. One is the enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), where water is pumped into cracks in rocks and taken out at high temperature. A report from MIT last year concluded that there is enough geothermal energy that can serve the earths energy needs for several thousand years, with the only long-term drawback being non-hazardous induced seismicity.
The largest EGS system being developed is in South Australia, which can one day generate 10,000 megawatts of electricity. EGS technology is, however, still inchoate and expensive. Google.org has funded two companies in this area: Potter Drilling and AltaRock Energy. Both are in early stages. Says Gregory Miller, managing director of investments at Google.org, We deliberately choose areas that are not getting enough attention from VCs.
High-altitude wind is another area with high potential. A demonstration project in Delft University in the Netherlands has shown feasibility by flying kites at high altitudes. Makani Power in California, in which Google.org has invested $15 million, is developing the technology to fly kites at altitudes between 800 metres and 10 km, and attach them to gensets. A medium-sized kite farm can generate 100 megawatts of energy. Like EGS, this is a technology that will serve the world in the long term. The seeds for both have already been sown.
P. Hari in San Francisco13 March 2009
UNCLOGGING THE PIPE: The high environmental cost of fossil fuels such as oil is leading companies to invest in cleaner options (Bloomberg)The renewable energy industry is built on dreams. One of the fondest of these dreams is to produce a renewable hydrocarbon fuel, so that we can continue driving our cars without feeling any guilt. It is a dream that fuels several hundred companies globally, a large number of them in the US. Industry observers consider Sapphire Energy, a 2007 start-up based in San Diego in California, as one of the hottest of these biofuel companies. Sapphire has apparently developed a process to produce hydrocarbons petrol, diesel and aviation fuel directly from algae using sunlight, and they are chemically identical to those derived from crude oil. Sapphire says it is a few critical steps away from supplying the fuel to petrol stations.
In the past 18 months of its existence, Sapphire has supposedly proven the technology and supplied fuel for a few biofuel-based experiments, including test flights by Continental Airlines and Japan Airlines. The next few years would determine if this process would work on a commercial scale. Sapphires goal is to start producing 300 barrels per day (bpd) in three years, and 10,000 bpd in five years. Once we demonstrate the process and economics work in 10,000 bpd, ramping up to hundreds of thousands or more of barrels per day is simply a matter of investment, says Tim Zenk, Sapphires vice-president of corporate affairs.
We do not know yet whether it would work on a global scale, but several high-profile investors are backing the company ARCH Venture Partners, the Wellcome Trust, Venrock and Bill Gatess Cascade Investment. But then Sapphire has stiff competition from dozens of other VC-backed companies, also chasing much the same dream. Companies that claim similar results with different approaches include Solix Biofuels in Colorado, Solazyme in San Francisco and Synthetic Genomics in Sausalito in California. Florida-based PetroAlgae says it is close to completing a 5,000 gallon-per-acre plant to produce hydrocarbon fuel using algae. There are also many other firms trying to produce other environment-friendly fuels the label is essential such as ethanol from biomass.
A LONG JOURNEY
The search for clean fuel alternatives started more than a century ago
1876: William Adams discovers that Selenium produces electricity when exposed to sunlight1908: Ford makes a vehicle that can run on ethanol1954: Bell Labs develops the first photovoltaic cell1973: The Satellite Skylab is powered by solar cells1977: Brazilian scientists invent and patent the first industrial process for biodiesel1978: The US congress passes the Energy Tax Act, encourages households to invest in energy conservation, wind and solar energies1979: firm called Arco Solar embarks on a venture to create the worlds biggest photo voltaic manufacturing facility; Ethanol starts becoming popular1985: The University of New South Wales creates solar cells with 20 per cent efficiency1999: Installed Capacity of solar cells cross 1 gigawatt2005: VCs begin funding renewable energy companies in large numbers2006: Boeingspectrolab develops solar cells with 40 per cent efficiency
In the past one year, VCs in the US have been pouring money into biofuel firms. Biofuels Digest, a US publication that tracks investments in the sector, says that $680.2 million (about Rs 3,537 crore) of venture capital was invested in biofuel firms last year. Of this, $437 million was for cellulosic ethanol and $175.9 million for algae-based firms. That is a pittance compared to what is spent on searching for new oilfields to exploit, but a huge jump over the kind of funding biofuel start-ups could hope to attract five years ago. Still biofuel is only the second-most favourite area of renewable energy VCs. Their top choice is without doubt solar energy. In the past four years, VCs in the US invested $4.5 billion in solar energy start-ups.
VC investments in renewable energy continued throughout 2008 despite weak general economic conditions. According to the Cleantech Group, a research firm in San Francisco, $8.4 billion was invested in renewable energy globally in 2008. Greentech Media, a similar organisation, also based in San Francisco, puts the figure at $7.7 billion, but without including many deals in India and China. Solar energy firms mopped up $1.7 billion of VC money last year, and $4.5 billion in the past four years. A large number of these deals were at seed-stage, or Series A, funding. The money pumped into clean tech firms has resulted in a tremendous spurt in innovation. But industry watchers are worried that if the recession continues, the money might slow down and the momentum of innovation would also slow down. Says Brian Fan, senior director of research at the Cleantech Group, The overall funding will slow down this year, and we expect as much as 50 per cent valuations to be reset.
However, early-stage funding could be different. Early-stage VC deals in all sectors are still continuing, according to the MoneyTree report from PricewaterhouseCoopers. The number of VC deals dropped in the last quarter of 2008, but the number of seed and early-stage deals were larger than in any quarter between 2002 and 2006. Even during a recession, VCs are keen to fund innovative ideas. However, highly capital intensive late-stage deals may be a different matter. From among the thousand-odd clean tech start-ups funded in the past few years, only those with breakthrough technologies will get the investments necessary for commercial scale plants. Real innovation always gets funded, says Wilber James, managing partner of Rockport Capital Partners. Many corporate giants started during recessions. Would some of the companies funded in the past three years turn out to be the next Chevron or Shell or GE?Redefining The Solar Energy MapThere seems to be an inevitability to the solar energy industry that attracts entrepreneurs, investors and innovators. Selling solar energy modules and panels is in real danger of becoming a commodity business, but that does not prevent entrepreneurs and VCs from looking for innovation in a solar energy firm. One of the largest fund-raising ever in the sector was done by the Fremont-based Solyndra. It raised $600 million in its four years of existence. Solyndra has a plant that makes 120 megawatts of solar panels, and another one being built to make another 500 megawatts. It claims to have $1.2 billion worth of orders already.
Innovation in solar cells often focuses on science: to produce more efficient or cheaper solar cells. Solyndra relies on pure engineering to improve efficiencies of the system and reduce cost. All conventional solar modules are flat and mounted in flat panels. Solyndras module is cylindrical. This simple idea combined with some innovation has purportedly increased the efficiency of solar panels by roughly 25 per cent.
RAY OF HOPE: While companies such as Sapphire use algae to produce hydrocarbons (left), others use concentrators to tap solar energy
A flat panel, to be always perpendicular to the suns rays, has to keep tracking the sun, and thus has to change orientation. Solyndras way of tackling this is to make the modules cylindrical. These modules are designed in a way to capture light from all sides. Direct light from one side, diffused light from the other side, and reflected light from the bottom. The hollow cylindrical modules also allow wind to pass through them without damage. Solyndras panel is apparently tested for winds up to 120 miles per hour.
Solyndra and other solar panel firms are betting on one thing: commercial rooftop space across the world. In the US alone, there is 30 billion sq. ft of space available, which can translate into 150 gigawatts of power if fully used. The space available globally is probably three times as much. We need to optimise the cost for commercial rooftops, says Kelly Truman, vice-president of marketing in Solyndra.
As all observers of the industry know, the main problem with solar power is the high cost. Making more efficient solar cells is one way of tackling this problem. The other one is to drive efficiencies into the manufacturing process and to develop low-cost materials so that the total cost of the system comes down. Among established players, SunPower is an example of the first type of companies: for some time, it has been making the most efficient solar cells in the world. First Solar is an example of the second: its manufacturing techniques claim to make solar electricity cheaper than ever. Start-ups are challenging both sets of companies through multiple approaches and making a big impact on the solar energy map.
For example, the Oakland, California-based BrightSource is building the worlds largest solar power plant in Mojave Desert near Los Angeles. Capable of producing 1.3 gigawatts of power when complete in 2013, this plant would use mirrors called heliostats to concentrate solar radiation, which in turn is used to generate steam to drive turbines and generate electricity. The company sources its technology from a subsidiary in Israel, where it is building a 100-megawatt and a 200- megawatt plant.
Concentrating the suns rays is an approach followed by several firms around the world, and many of them are claiming efficiencies much higher than plain photovoltaic cells. In Israel, start-up Zenith Solar has licensed concentrator technology from the countrys Ben-Gurion University and Fraunhofer Institute in Germany. The firm claims to increase efficiency five times while reducing the cost of photovoltaic cells from 80 per cent of the system to 10 per cent.
Prism Solar Technologies in New York uses holograms to concentrate solar energy, and reduces the amount of silicon needed in a panel and, thus, the cost. In Australia, Sunengy uses concentrators to focus solar energy on to solar cells partially submerged in water. Water keeps the system cool and protects it from high winds. Research papers published from Sunengy claim that costs can go to less than $1 a watt (currently solar electricity costs roughly $2 a watt). Says Philip Connor, inventor of the system and founder of Sunengy, We need to achieve 50 per cent cost reductions in two years, 75 per cent in four, and coal replacement soon thereafter.
Companies described above represent a fraction of the innovation happening in this field. Nanosolar in the Silicon Valley literally prints solar cells on a substrate, which supposedly speeds up manufacturing by about 100 times; Nanosolar has received $500 million in VC funding. A start-up from MIT, 1366, is using very thin wires to reduce the cost of conventional silicon solar cells, and bring solar energy costs on a par with electricity from coal by 2012. And it is a sector that is attracting global corporate giants. Samsung, IBM and Intel are all nurturing plans to enter the solar energy market. Not surprisingly, Lux Research predicts the solar energy market to increase its size from $36 billion (5.5 gigawatts) to $70 billion (18.5 gigawatt) by 2013, with a few bumps on the way in the next two years. Some industry observers compare the advent of low-cost solar cells at lower efficiencies to the situation in the computer industry in the 1980s. The current state of thin film technology is like the time when PCs made their appearance, says Keshav Prasad, vice-president of business development at Signet Solar, a Silicon Valley firm. PCs were much slower than the mainframes, but they caught on because they were much cheaper.
Playing Catch-up While the solar energy industry seems to be on the verge of explosive growth, the biofuel industry seems set to catch up a few years later. For some time now, biomass energy, with ethanol from corn being the front-runner, has been criticised as not being so environment-friendly. In fact, studies had shown that corn-based ethanol creates more carbon emissions than fossil fuels in the long run. This is because of fertiliser use and land degradation, among other factors. Now, a Chicago-based company claims to put biomass-based ethanol as a top contender among carbon-neutral fuels.
It is difficult to manufacture ethanol economically with a low overall carbon footprint. One way to make ethanol economically is to learn how to convert any piece of biomass into a fuel, which obviates the need to use fertilisers or use areas meant for crops to generate the feedstock. There are several such research projects by firms, but Coskata is among the few that have processes that can use a variety of inputs. Its ethanol plants can take in any feedstock: scraps of wood, any twigs or leaves, old tyres or almost anything that has organic carbon in it.
The firm has proprietary microorganisms that can eat up carbon-based material and convert it finally to ethanol. But ethanol is not as energy dense compared to fossil fuels. We can compensate for this lower density through lower prices for ethanol, says Wes Bolson, chief marketing officer of Coskata. The company will be ready with a semi-scale plant by June, and is also designing a full-scale plant.
Biofuel firms have received a lot of investment, but many industry observers think that the sector has thrived on hype as well. Consider algae-based hydrocarbons, for example. There is no doubt that firms such as Sapphire, Synthetic Genomics and others are innovative. But their technology is still untested on a commercial scale. No one has been able to scale algae-based methods, says Eric Wesoff, senior analyst at Greentech Media. There is the additional issue of land area necessary to manufacture these fuels. However, recent studies have shown that biofuels are sustainable on a global scale. In a paper published two months ago, scientists Jürgen Metzger of University of Oldenburg and Aloys Huettermann from Germanys University of Goettingen, showed that the world demand of energy by 2030 based on projections by the International Energy Agency can be met by cellulosic biomass grown in degraded land.
GAINING HEIGHTS: Companies are driving efficiencies into manufacturing of solar panels to tackle the problem of high costs(Bloomberg)The economical viability of biofuels is difficult to calculate as the price of oil keeps fluctuating. Sapphire, for example, claims to make its bio-crude compete with oil when at prices of $60-80 per barrel (not considering subsidies). The price of crude is currently around $47 a barrel. So at current prices, bio-crude cannot compare with traditional crude. On the other hand, if crude oil prices are consistently over $100 a barrel, bio-crude suddenly becomes a very viable option. Observers cite the instability in the oil market as the major reason why renewable energy investments do not make economic sense (electricity prices, although different in different markets, are not so volatile). However, in spite of this volatility, biofuel companies have developed an impressive range of lab-scale technologies.
Several firms are developing technologies for biomass ethanol. POET, a grain-based ethanol firm in South Dakota, US, is building a 25-million gallon biomass ethanol plant in Iowa, to be ready in two years. Range Fuels, a Colorado-based firm backed by Khosla Ventures, will finish building its cellulosic ethanol plant in Georgia, US, by the end of this year. Sekab in Sweden is also close to commercialising cellulosic ethanol. As mentioned, Sapphire, Solis and Solazyme are developing renewable crude.
Seambiotic, whose parent company is in Israel, uses flue gas from coal power plants to grow algae, which in turn is used to produce biodiesel. The California-based Amyris Biotechnoloiges tries to reprogram the DNA of microbes to make renewable diesel and jet fuel. In a few years time, we may know if these processes succeed, or whether one of these companies can become an energy industry giant.
The Buck Doesnt Stop Here Solar Energy and biofuels have got the attention of VCs in the past few years, but there are a few other promising technologies too. Wind power and geothermal energy are no longer the hot favourites of VCs. There are, however, technologies within these areas that look promising. One is the enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), where water is pumped into cracks in rocks and taken out at high temperature. A report from MIT last year concluded that there is enough geothermal energy that can serve the earths energy needs for several thousand years, with the only long-term drawback being non-hazardous induced seismicity.
The largest EGS system being developed is in South Australia, which can one day generate 10,000 megawatts of electricity. EGS technology is, however, still inchoate and expensive. Google.org has funded two companies in this area: Potter Drilling and AltaRock Energy. Both are in early stages. Says Gregory Miller, managing director of investments at Google.org, We deliberately choose areas that are not getting enough attention from VCs.
High-altitude wind is another area with high potential. A demonstration project in Delft University in the Netherlands has shown feasibility by flying kites at high altitudes. Makani Power in California, in which Google.org has invested $15 million, is developing the technology to fly kites at altitudes between 800 metres and 10 km, and attach them to gensets. A medium-sized kite farm can generate 100 megawatts of energy. Like EGS, this is a technology that will serve the world in the long term. The seeds for both have already been sown.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Whether GOD Exist or NOT?
Friends ,
I have come through a good conversation between a Professor and a Student.There is a talk on GOD...............I would like to have different views from readers what they think about this conversation and whether they agree or disagree in any way....totally or partly.
I will give my views after reading your comments....but would like to hear from you all how you all look at this conversation and how much you all agree and disagree with it.....
READ ON:
An atheist professor of philosophy speaks to his class on the problem science has with God, The Almighty.
He asks one of his new students to stand and.....
Prof: So you believe in God?
Student: Absolutely, sir.
Prof : Is God good?
Student: Sure.
Prof: Is God all-powerful?
Student : Yes.
Prof: My brother died of cancer even though he prayed to God to heal him. Most of us would attempt to help others who are ill. But God didn't. How is this God good then? Hmm?
(Student is silent.)
Prof: You can't answer, can you? Let's start again, young fella. Is God ood?
Student: Yes.
Prof: Is Satan good?
Student : No.
Prof: Where does Satan come from?
Student: From...God...
Prof: That's right. Tell me son, is there evil in this world?
Student: Yes.
Prof: Evil is everywhere, isn't it? And God did make everything. Correct?
Student: Yes.
Prof: So who created evil?
(Student does not answer.)
Prof: Is there sickness? Immorality? Hatred? Ugliness? All these terrible things exist in the world, don't they?
Student: Yes, sir.
Prof: So, who created them?
(Student has no answer.)
Prof: Science says you have 5 senses you use to identify and observe the world around you. Tell me, son...Have you ever seen God?
Student: No, sir.
Prof: Tell us if you have ever heard your God?
Student: No, sir.
Prof: Have you ever felt your God, tasted your God, smelt your God? Have you ever had any sensory perception of God for that matter?
Student: No, sir. I'm afraid I haven't.
Prof: Yet you still believe in Him?
Student: Yes.
Prof: According to empirical, testable, demonstrable protocol, science says your GOD doesn't exist. What do you say to that, son?
Student: Nothing. I only have my faith.
Prof: Yes. Faith. And that is the problem science has.
I have come through a good conversation between a Professor and a Student.There is a talk on GOD...............I would like to have different views from readers what they think about this conversation and whether they agree or disagree in any way....totally or partly.
I will give my views after reading your comments....but would like to hear from you all how you all look at this conversation and how much you all agree and disagree with it.....
READ ON:
An atheist professor of philosophy speaks to his class on the problem science has with God, The Almighty.
He asks one of his new students to stand and.....
Prof: So you believe in God?
Student: Absolutely, sir.
Prof : Is God good?
Student: Sure.
Prof: Is God all-powerful?
Student : Yes.
Prof: My brother died of cancer even though he prayed to God to heal him. Most of us would attempt to help others who are ill. But God didn't. How is this God good then? Hmm?
(Student is silent.)
Prof: You can't answer, can you? Let's start again, young fella. Is God ood?
Student: Yes.
Prof: Is Satan good?
Student : No.
Prof: Where does Satan come from?
Student: From...God...
Prof: That's right. Tell me son, is there evil in this world?
Student: Yes.
Prof: Evil is everywhere, isn't it? And God did make everything. Correct?
Student: Yes.
Prof: So who created evil?
(Student does not answer.)
Prof: Is there sickness? Immorality? Hatred? Ugliness? All these terrible things exist in the world, don't they?
Student: Yes, sir.
Prof: So, who created them?
(Student has no answer.)
Prof: Science says you have 5 senses you use to identify and observe the world around you. Tell me, son...Have you ever seen God?
Student: No, sir.
Prof: Tell us if you have ever heard your God?
Student: No, sir.
Prof: Have you ever felt your God, tasted your God, smelt your God? Have you ever had any sensory perception of God for that matter?
Student: No, sir. I'm afraid I haven't.
Prof: Yet you still believe in Him?
Student: Yes.
Prof: According to empirical, testable, demonstrable protocol, science says your GOD doesn't exist. What do you say to that, son?
Student: Nothing. I only have my faith.
Prof: Yes. Faith. And that is the problem science has.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Freddie Mac Lost $265 Million Every DayPosted Mar 12, 2009 08:46am EDT by John Carney in Recession, Banking, Housing Related: FRE
From The Business Insider, March 12, 2009:
Freddie Mac reported yesterday that its liabilities now exceed its assets, in part because the fair value of its loan portfolio declined by a massive $120 billion. It has said it will need to draw another $30.8 on the loan facility established to keep it afloat. All told it lost just a smidge under $24 billion in the fourth quarter.
Those a mind-boggling numbers. Regular readers know we have a special way of breaking these down to more comprehensible numbers.
Freddie Mac Losses By The Calendar
Full Quarter: $24. billionEach Day: $265 millionEach Hour: $11 millionEach Minute: $184,000Each Second: $3000
Each and every day in the last quarter of 2008--including weekends Thanksgiving and Christmas--Freddie Mac lost $265 million. That beats out General Motors, which lost just $85 million a day. It means that every second, Freddie Mac lost more than two weeks worth of the average American's income. Every 90 seconds, Freddie Mac lost as much as the average home price in the most expensive region in the country.
The main skill required to run Freddie Mac seems to be the ability to light three one thousand dollar bills on fire every second of every day. If these guys keep it up, they may even be able to get a job at AIG one day.
Total $ 587 bn loss in derivatives...from Citi,BoA,HSBC,Wells Fargo..and JP Morgan....
15 Companies That Might Not Survive 2009
February 06, 2009 09:29 AM ET Rick Newman Permanent Link Print
Corrected on 2/9/09:
An earlier version of this article used the wrong company name for Apollo Management and gave the wrong year for real estate declines.
Whos next?
With consumers shutting their wallets and corporate revenues plunging, the business landscape may start to resemble a graveyard in 2009. Household names like Circuit City and Linens n Things have already perished. And chances are, those bankruptcieswere just an early warning sign of a much broader epidemic.
Moodys Investors Service, for instance, predicts that the default rate on corporate bonds which foretells bankruptcies will be three times higher in 2009 than in 2008, and 15 times higher than in 2007. That could equate to 25 significant bankruptcies per month.
We examined ratings from Moodys and data from other sources to develop a short list of potential victims that ought to be familiar to most consumers. Many of these firms are in industries directly hit by the slowdown in consumer spending, such as retail, automotive, housing and entertainment.
But there are other common threads. Most of these firms have limited cash for a rainy day, and a lot of debt, with large interest payments due over the next year. In ordinary times, it might not be so hard to refinance loans, or get new ones, to help keep the cash flowing. But in an acute credit crunch its a different story, and at companies where sales are down and going lower, skittish lenders may refuse to grant any more credit. Its a terrible time to be cash-poor.
[See how Wall Street continues to doom itself.]
Thats why Moodys assigns most of these firms its lowest rating for short-term liquidity. And all the firms on this list have long-term debt that Moodys rates Caa or lower, which means the borrower is considered at least a very high credit risk.
Once a company defaults on its debt, or fails to make a payment, the next step is usually a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. Some firms continue to operate while in Chapter 11, retaining many of their employees. Those firms often shed debt, restructure, and emerge from bankruptcy as healthier companies.
But it takes fresh financing to do that, and with money scarce, more bankrupt firms than usual are likely to liquidate - like Circuit City. Thats why corporate failures are likely to be a major drag on the economy in 2009: In a liquidation, the entire workforce often gets axed, with little or no severance. That will only add to unemployment, which could hit 9 or even 10 percent by the end of the year.
[Want to land a plum job without paying taxes? Heres how.]
Its possible that none of the firms on this list will liquidate, or even declare Chapter 11. Some may come up with unexpected revenue or creative financing that helps avert bankruptcy, while others could be purchased in whole or in part by creditors or other investors. But one way or another, the following 15 firms will probably look a lot different a year from now than they do today:
Rite Aid. (Ticker symbol: RAD; about 100,000 employees; 1-year stock-price decline: 92%).
This drugstore chain tried to boost its performance by acquiring competitors Brooks and Eckerd in 2007. But there have been some nasty side effects, like a huge debt load that makes it the most leveraged drugstore chain in the U.S., according to Zacks Equity Research. That big retail investment came just as megadiscounter Wal-Mart was starting to sell prescription drugs, and consumers were starting to cut bank on spending. Management has twice lowered its outlook for 2009. Prognosis: Mounting losses, with no turnaround in sight.
Claires Stores. (Privately owned; about 18,000 employees.)
Leon Blacks once-renowned private-equity firm, Apollo Management, paid $3.1 billion for this trendy teen-focused accessory store in 2007, when buyout funds were bulging. But cash flow has been negative for much of the past year and analysts believe Claires is close to defaulting on its debt. A horrible retail outlook for 2009 offers no relief, suggesting Claires could follow Linens n Things another Apollo purchase and declare Chapter 11, possibly shuttering all of its 3,000-plus stores. (Update: See this response from Claire's.)
[See 5 pieces missing from Obamas stimulus plan.]
Chrysler. (Privately owned; about 55,000 employees).
Its never a good sign when management insists the company is not going out of business, which is what CEO Bob Nardelli has been doing lately. Of the three Detroit automakers, Chrysler is the most endangered, with a product portfolio thats overreliant on gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs and almost totally devoid of compelling small cars. A recent deal with Fiat seems dubious, since the Italian automaker doesnt have to pony up any money, and Chrysler desperately needs cash. The company is quickly burning through $4 billion in government bailout money, and with car sales down 40 percent from recent peaks, Chrysler may be the weakling that cant cut it in tough times.
Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group. (DTG; about 7,000 employees; stock down 95%).
This car-rental company is a small player compared to Enterprise, Hertz, and Avis Budget. Its also more reliant on leisure travelers, and therefore more susceptible to a downturn as consumers cut spending. Dollar Thrifty is also closely tied to Chrysler, which supplies 80 percent of its fleet. Moodys predicts that if Chrysler declares Chapter 11, Dollar Thrifty would suffer deeply as well.
Realogy Corp. (Privately owned; about 13,000 employees).
Its the biggest real-estate brokerage firm in the country, but thats a bad thing when there are double-digit declines in both sales and prices, as there were in 2008. Realogy, which includes the Coldwell Banker, ERA, and Sothebys franchises, also carries a high debt load, dating to its purchase by Apollo Management in 2007 the very moment when the housing market was starting to invert from a soaring ride into a sickening nosedive. Realogy has been trying to refinance much of its debt, prompting lawsuits. One deal was denied by a judge in December, reducing the firms already tight wiggle room. [Update: See this response from Realogy.]
Station Casinos. (Privately owned, about 14,000 employees).
Las Vegas has already been creamed by a biblical real-estate bust, and now it may face the loss of its home-grown gambling joints, too. Station - which runs 15 casinos off the strip that cater to locals - recently failed to make a key interest payment, which is often one of the last steps before a Chapter 11 filing. For once, the house seems likely to lose.
[See why Wall Street talent is an oxymoron.]
Loehmanns Capital Corp. (Privately owned; about 1,500 employees).
This clothing chain has the right formula for lean times, offering womens clothing at discount prices. But the consumer pullback is hitting just about every retailer, and Loehmanns has a lot less cash to ride out a drought than competitors like Nordstrom Rack and TJ Maxx. If Loehmanns doesnt get additional financing in 2009 a dicey proposition, given skyrocketing unemployment and plunging spending the chain could run out of cash.
Sbarro. (Privately owned; about 5,500 employees).
Its not the pizza thats the problem. Many of this chains 1,100 storefronts are in malls, which is a double whammy: Traffic is down, since consumers have put away their wallets. Sbarro cant really boost revenue by adding a breakfast or late-night menu, like other chains have done. And competitors like Dominos and Pizza Hut have less debt and stronger cash flow, which could intensify pressure on Sbarro as key debt payments come due in 2009.
Six Flags. (SIX; about 30,000 employees; stock down 84%).
This theme-park operator has been losing money for several years, and selling off properties to try to pay down debt and get back into the black. But the ride may end prematurely. Moodys expects cash flow to be negative in 2009, and if consumers arent spending during the peak summer season, that could imperil the companys ability to pay debts coming due later this year and in 2010.
Blockbuster. (BBI; about 60,000 employees; stock down 57%).
The video-rental chain has burned cash while trying to figure out how to maximize fees without alienating customers. Its operating income has started to improve just as consumers are cutting back, even on movies. Video stores in general are under pressure as they compete with cable and Internet operators offering the same titles. A key test of Blockbusters viability will come when two credit lines expire in August. One possible outcome, according to Valueline, is that investors take the company private and then go public again when market conditions are better.
Krispy Kreme. (KKD; about 4,000 employees; stock down 50%).
The donuts might be good, but Krispy Kreme overestimated Americans' appetite - and that's saying something. This chain overexpanded during the donut heyday of the 1990s - taking on a lot of debt - and now requires high volumes to meet expenses and interest payments. The company has cut costs and closed underperforming stores, but still hasn't earned an operating profit in three years. And now that consumers are cutting back on everything, such improvements may fail to offset top-line declines, leading Krispy Kreme to seek some kind of relief from lenders over the next year.
Landrys Restaurants. (LNY; about 17,000 employees; stock down 66%).
This restaurant chain, which operates Chart House, Rainforest Café, and other eateries, needs $400 million in new financing to finalize a buyout deal dating to last June. If lenders come through, the company should have enough cash to ride out the recession. But at least two banks have already balked, leading to downgrades of the company's debt and the prospect of a cash-flow crunch. (Update: Moody's recently upgraded its long-term outlook for Landry's - but maintained the company's short-term liquidity rating - after the company refinanced some of its debt.)
Sirius Satellite Radio. (SIRI - parent company; about 1,000 employees; stock down 96%).
The music rocks, but satellite radio has yet to be profitable, and huge contracts for performers like Howard Stern are looking unsustainable. Sirius is one of two satellite-radio services owned by parent company Sirius XM, which was formed when Sirius and XM merged last year. So far, the merger hasn't generated the savings needed to make the company profitable, and Moody's thinks there's a "high likelihood" that Sirius will fail to repay or refinance its debt in 2009. One outcome could be a takeover, at distressed prices, by other firms active in the satellite business. (Update: Sirius recently averted a bankruptcy filing when Liberty Media took a 40 percent stake in the company.)
Trump Entertainment Resorts Holdings. (TRMP; about 9,500 employees; stock down 94%).
The casino company made famous by The Donald has received several extensions on interest payments, while it tries to sell at least one of its Atlantic City properties and pay down a stack of debt. But with casino buyers scarce, competition circling, and gamblers nursing their losses from the recession, Trump Entertainment may face long odds of skirting bankruptcy. (Update: Trump Entertainment declared bankruptcy on Feb. 17 but said it will continue to operate normally.)
BearingPoint. (BGPT; about 16,000 employees; stock down 21%).
This Virginia-based consulting firm, spun out of KPMG in 2001, is struggling to solve its own operating problems. The firm has consistently lost money, revenue has been falling, and management stopped issuing earnings guidance in 2008. Stable government contracts generate about 30 percent of the firm's business, but the firm may sell other divisions to help pay off debt. With a key interest payment due in April, management needs to hustle - or devise its own exit strategy. (Update: BearingPoint declared bankruptcy in February.)
With Carol Hook, Danielle Burton, Jenny O'Shea, Bobbie Kyle Sauer and Stephanie Salmon
From The Business Insider, March 12, 2009:
Freddie Mac reported yesterday that its liabilities now exceed its assets, in part because the fair value of its loan portfolio declined by a massive $120 billion. It has said it will need to draw another $30.8 on the loan facility established to keep it afloat. All told it lost just a smidge under $24 billion in the fourth quarter.
Those a mind-boggling numbers. Regular readers know we have a special way of breaking these down to more comprehensible numbers.
Freddie Mac Losses By The Calendar
Full Quarter: $24. billionEach Day: $265 millionEach Hour: $11 millionEach Minute: $184,000Each Second: $3000
Each and every day in the last quarter of 2008--including weekends Thanksgiving and Christmas--Freddie Mac lost $265 million. That beats out General Motors, which lost just $85 million a day. It means that every second, Freddie Mac lost more than two weeks worth of the average American's income. Every 90 seconds, Freddie Mac lost as much as the average home price in the most expensive region in the country.
The main skill required to run Freddie Mac seems to be the ability to light three one thousand dollar bills on fire every second of every day. If these guys keep it up, they may even be able to get a job at AIG one day.
Total $ 587 bn loss in derivatives...from Citi,BoA,HSBC,Wells Fargo..and JP Morgan....
15 Companies That Might Not Survive 2009
February 06, 2009 09:29 AM ET Rick Newman Permanent Link Print
Corrected on 2/9/09:
An earlier version of this article used the wrong company name for Apollo Management and gave the wrong year for real estate declines.
Whos next?
With consumers shutting their wallets and corporate revenues plunging, the business landscape may start to resemble a graveyard in 2009. Household names like Circuit City and Linens n Things have already perished. And chances are, those bankruptcieswere just an early warning sign of a much broader epidemic.
Moodys Investors Service, for instance, predicts that the default rate on corporate bonds which foretells bankruptcies will be three times higher in 2009 than in 2008, and 15 times higher than in 2007. That could equate to 25 significant bankruptcies per month.
We examined ratings from Moodys and data from other sources to develop a short list of potential victims that ought to be familiar to most consumers. Many of these firms are in industries directly hit by the slowdown in consumer spending, such as retail, automotive, housing and entertainment.
But there are other common threads. Most of these firms have limited cash for a rainy day, and a lot of debt, with large interest payments due over the next year. In ordinary times, it might not be so hard to refinance loans, or get new ones, to help keep the cash flowing. But in an acute credit crunch its a different story, and at companies where sales are down and going lower, skittish lenders may refuse to grant any more credit. Its a terrible time to be cash-poor.
[See how Wall Street continues to doom itself.]
Thats why Moodys assigns most of these firms its lowest rating for short-term liquidity. And all the firms on this list have long-term debt that Moodys rates Caa or lower, which means the borrower is considered at least a very high credit risk.
Once a company defaults on its debt, or fails to make a payment, the next step is usually a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing. Some firms continue to operate while in Chapter 11, retaining many of their employees. Those firms often shed debt, restructure, and emerge from bankruptcy as healthier companies.
But it takes fresh financing to do that, and with money scarce, more bankrupt firms than usual are likely to liquidate - like Circuit City. Thats why corporate failures are likely to be a major drag on the economy in 2009: In a liquidation, the entire workforce often gets axed, with little or no severance. That will only add to unemployment, which could hit 9 or even 10 percent by the end of the year.
[Want to land a plum job without paying taxes? Heres how.]
Its possible that none of the firms on this list will liquidate, or even declare Chapter 11. Some may come up with unexpected revenue or creative financing that helps avert bankruptcy, while others could be purchased in whole or in part by creditors or other investors. But one way or another, the following 15 firms will probably look a lot different a year from now than they do today:
Rite Aid. (Ticker symbol: RAD; about 100,000 employees; 1-year stock-price decline: 92%).
This drugstore chain tried to boost its performance by acquiring competitors Brooks and Eckerd in 2007. But there have been some nasty side effects, like a huge debt load that makes it the most leveraged drugstore chain in the U.S., according to Zacks Equity Research. That big retail investment came just as megadiscounter Wal-Mart was starting to sell prescription drugs, and consumers were starting to cut bank on spending. Management has twice lowered its outlook for 2009. Prognosis: Mounting losses, with no turnaround in sight.
Claires Stores. (Privately owned; about 18,000 employees.)
Leon Blacks once-renowned private-equity firm, Apollo Management, paid $3.1 billion for this trendy teen-focused accessory store in 2007, when buyout funds were bulging. But cash flow has been negative for much of the past year and analysts believe Claires is close to defaulting on its debt. A horrible retail outlook for 2009 offers no relief, suggesting Claires could follow Linens n Things another Apollo purchase and declare Chapter 11, possibly shuttering all of its 3,000-plus stores. (Update: See this response from Claire's.)
[See 5 pieces missing from Obamas stimulus plan.]
Chrysler. (Privately owned; about 55,000 employees).
Its never a good sign when management insists the company is not going out of business, which is what CEO Bob Nardelli has been doing lately. Of the three Detroit automakers, Chrysler is the most endangered, with a product portfolio thats overreliant on gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs and almost totally devoid of compelling small cars. A recent deal with Fiat seems dubious, since the Italian automaker doesnt have to pony up any money, and Chrysler desperately needs cash. The company is quickly burning through $4 billion in government bailout money, and with car sales down 40 percent from recent peaks, Chrysler may be the weakling that cant cut it in tough times.
Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group. (DTG; about 7,000 employees; stock down 95%).
This car-rental company is a small player compared to Enterprise, Hertz, and Avis Budget. Its also more reliant on leisure travelers, and therefore more susceptible to a downturn as consumers cut spending. Dollar Thrifty is also closely tied to Chrysler, which supplies 80 percent of its fleet. Moodys predicts that if Chrysler declares Chapter 11, Dollar Thrifty would suffer deeply as well.
Realogy Corp. (Privately owned; about 13,000 employees).
Its the biggest real-estate brokerage firm in the country, but thats a bad thing when there are double-digit declines in both sales and prices, as there were in 2008. Realogy, which includes the Coldwell Banker, ERA, and Sothebys franchises, also carries a high debt load, dating to its purchase by Apollo Management in 2007 the very moment when the housing market was starting to invert from a soaring ride into a sickening nosedive. Realogy has been trying to refinance much of its debt, prompting lawsuits. One deal was denied by a judge in December, reducing the firms already tight wiggle room. [Update: See this response from Realogy.]
Station Casinos. (Privately owned, about 14,000 employees).
Las Vegas has already been creamed by a biblical real-estate bust, and now it may face the loss of its home-grown gambling joints, too. Station - which runs 15 casinos off the strip that cater to locals - recently failed to make a key interest payment, which is often one of the last steps before a Chapter 11 filing. For once, the house seems likely to lose.
[See why Wall Street talent is an oxymoron.]
Loehmanns Capital Corp. (Privately owned; about 1,500 employees).
This clothing chain has the right formula for lean times, offering womens clothing at discount prices. But the consumer pullback is hitting just about every retailer, and Loehmanns has a lot less cash to ride out a drought than competitors like Nordstrom Rack and TJ Maxx. If Loehmanns doesnt get additional financing in 2009 a dicey proposition, given skyrocketing unemployment and plunging spending the chain could run out of cash.
Sbarro. (Privately owned; about 5,500 employees).
Its not the pizza thats the problem. Many of this chains 1,100 storefronts are in malls, which is a double whammy: Traffic is down, since consumers have put away their wallets. Sbarro cant really boost revenue by adding a breakfast or late-night menu, like other chains have done. And competitors like Dominos and Pizza Hut have less debt and stronger cash flow, which could intensify pressure on Sbarro as key debt payments come due in 2009.
Six Flags. (SIX; about 30,000 employees; stock down 84%).
This theme-park operator has been losing money for several years, and selling off properties to try to pay down debt and get back into the black. But the ride may end prematurely. Moodys expects cash flow to be negative in 2009, and if consumers arent spending during the peak summer season, that could imperil the companys ability to pay debts coming due later this year and in 2010.
Blockbuster. (BBI; about 60,000 employees; stock down 57%).
The video-rental chain has burned cash while trying to figure out how to maximize fees without alienating customers. Its operating income has started to improve just as consumers are cutting back, even on movies. Video stores in general are under pressure as they compete with cable and Internet operators offering the same titles. A key test of Blockbusters viability will come when two credit lines expire in August. One possible outcome, according to Valueline, is that investors take the company private and then go public again when market conditions are better.
Krispy Kreme. (KKD; about 4,000 employees; stock down 50%).
The donuts might be good, but Krispy Kreme overestimated Americans' appetite - and that's saying something. This chain overexpanded during the donut heyday of the 1990s - taking on a lot of debt - and now requires high volumes to meet expenses and interest payments. The company has cut costs and closed underperforming stores, but still hasn't earned an operating profit in three years. And now that consumers are cutting back on everything, such improvements may fail to offset top-line declines, leading Krispy Kreme to seek some kind of relief from lenders over the next year.
Landrys Restaurants. (LNY; about 17,000 employees; stock down 66%).
This restaurant chain, which operates Chart House, Rainforest Café, and other eateries, needs $400 million in new financing to finalize a buyout deal dating to last June. If lenders come through, the company should have enough cash to ride out the recession. But at least two banks have already balked, leading to downgrades of the company's debt and the prospect of a cash-flow crunch. (Update: Moody's recently upgraded its long-term outlook for Landry's - but maintained the company's short-term liquidity rating - after the company refinanced some of its debt.)
Sirius Satellite Radio. (SIRI - parent company; about 1,000 employees; stock down 96%).
The music rocks, but satellite radio has yet to be profitable, and huge contracts for performers like Howard Stern are looking unsustainable. Sirius is one of two satellite-radio services owned by parent company Sirius XM, which was formed when Sirius and XM merged last year. So far, the merger hasn't generated the savings needed to make the company profitable, and Moody's thinks there's a "high likelihood" that Sirius will fail to repay or refinance its debt in 2009. One outcome could be a takeover, at distressed prices, by other firms active in the satellite business. (Update: Sirius recently averted a bankruptcy filing when Liberty Media took a 40 percent stake in the company.)
Trump Entertainment Resorts Holdings. (TRMP; about 9,500 employees; stock down 94%).
The casino company made famous by The Donald has received several extensions on interest payments, while it tries to sell at least one of its Atlantic City properties and pay down a stack of debt. But with casino buyers scarce, competition circling, and gamblers nursing their losses from the recession, Trump Entertainment may face long odds of skirting bankruptcy. (Update: Trump Entertainment declared bankruptcy on Feb. 17 but said it will continue to operate normally.)
BearingPoint. (BGPT; about 16,000 employees; stock down 21%).
This Virginia-based consulting firm, spun out of KPMG in 2001, is struggling to solve its own operating problems. The firm has consistently lost money, revenue has been falling, and management stopped issuing earnings guidance in 2008. Stable government contracts generate about 30 percent of the firm's business, but the firm may sell other divisions to help pay off debt. With a key interest payment due in April, management needs to hustle - or devise its own exit strategy. (Update: BearingPoint declared bankruptcy in February.)
With Carol Hook, Danielle Burton, Jenny O'Shea, Bobbie Kyle Sauer and Stephanie Salmon
Saturday, March 7, 2009
What is success.........
Friends,
I have gone offtopic today.I am going to try to give different aspects on the defination for a big big word named "SUCCESS".
What is success?Whom you call a successful man?How one would see a success?
I have seen people saying that the success he got is the only way one can get and not any other way.They are not ready to accept the otherway of success of others.
Is Success is related to only Money?Is success is related to achievement? Is success only related to Fame?Is Success related to living in big house and having many cars and many servants?
Is success related on to the what place one possess where he works ?A position like Officer or Manager or Area Sales Manager makes a successful person?Is the position everything that is counted in society?
I have been asked by many of my friends and relatives that Why I use to be a simple Head Cashier in Bank and not an officer or a Manager of any branch?Does it means that if I am a manager or a officer then only I am deemed to be successful?Is succes related to the position in society?If one has no such position is that man worth not taken note of?There can be many reaons why a person may not opt for certain decision.Does it means he is not worth taking note of?
I would like to discuss what are the parametres of being Successful?Having salaries over 1,00,000 in dollar is called success?Or having 40-50-100 people working under ones hand and having high salary as well is called a success?
I have seen people trying to make a point on this type of things that I have more responsibility then yours and you have no big responsibility and that fight use to get serious and there use to get a sense of hotting up the atmosphere.
Now what I think here is even one is having such a post and high salary and still he is not humble then the success has no meaning to me. Success makes man more humble and not arrogant. If success is making a person arrogant and starts thinking that what he does is correct even though what he does is wrong and he starts thinking that he is still correct ,whether it is with his job or other way then to me that has a no value......I would term that person as a ZERO...
I have seen many such people who are never repentive as they think that what they does and act is absolutely right even though it is not so.They never repent.....that is arrogance....and the bad thing is , they are very proud to be so. They proudly says that I don't care of what others thinks of me......
I am trying to bring one more aspect here.
I have seen people thinking this way about not worrying what others think of what they do.That is good but then others can also think the same way they thinks.
e.g. When a person think whatever he has done or thought is correct and he cares a damn what others think about what he has done as he has the right to think like that but the other person may not be thinking that he is right and he has also the same right to think about his way, which he thinks is right.One can't force him to do what he thinks to do.But I have seen that these type of people feels that they have done nothing wrong and expect other to accept that but that can never happen. Means that if one is doing wrong and still feels he is right and that others should accept it, it is not possible.I have seen such type of people in life.They do all wrong and still expect that other should accept that. Why? What he think is right may not be correct for other....simple.... Others have also the same right to care for him the damn.
Well, many people has the notion that what he has achieved is only be termed as success.If one is earning over $1,00,000 or $2,00,000 in a business they say the business can go down and one lose. But they don't understand that Job can also be lost. Someone told me that Motel is a risky business and hence it is not worth a look but what about those who made millions of money in Motel business? Aren't they successful?
I have a friend whose daughter is having a salary of $1,20,000 and she is just 24 years old.Now what can we say about that. The same salary others may have got of say working for over decade and a half and that girl is having a salary almost at the starting of her carrer but the arrogant people will say that is not worth. The success should come the way only mine way otherwise all are futile.
Talking about successful people I somewhere wrote that almost all successful people has admitted that they are lucky to be successful.
I am giving an example which I wrote there that I will not write the names. Here I give you a name. Bill Gates of Microsoft. He himself has written and spoken somewhere which I have read myself that after making Microsoft and listing it on stock Exchange , one day when I got up and saw that MS price has gone up by 50% in one day ,that was sheer luck. There was nothing that changed in 24 hrs that MS price can go up by 50%.
There are score of such exmaples. If Abhisek Bacchan would have not been the son of Amitabh Bacchan then he would not have been able to last this long in film industry. Whatever success he got and chances he got for so many pictures to prove that he is a good actor is only because he is AB's sons. Why that do not happened in the life of other actors who failed and never a film producer gave him another chance?Why Abhisek Bacchan is getting more chances then others?Can Abhisek Bacchan claim to be successful on his own?Never....Success is inter related.One is always standing on someone's shoulder when the last results comes out.But people forgets that and become too selfcentered and boast of having success on his own.
One more thing I would like to write here. I have seen successful people has charited lots of money for good cause. Like Bills Gates, Warren Buffet....This says that they know that this type of wealth they have accumalated is sheer luck and that is why they know that it should go to society for less fortunate. FORTUNE IS LUCK. When we say” fortunately” we accept the term LUCK. We have been passed through many circumstances where we have said fortunately this happened.
What is that?Like say one is trying to call someone , which is very urgent and he is not on cell.The info is very very important.Now that person meets you as soon as you go out of your house.When ask he says my cell battery was down but he was coming to your house and you will think fortunately he came to my house and I was able to convey this message.This happens with everyone .
What is that.If he would have not come either you or he would have been at great loss.Why this happens?How one will explain this?These are small things which we do not note when happens in our life.Never thought why that happened?
If one boast to be successful then why they are not able to gather the wealth Warren Buffet or Bills Gates or some other rich person is able to achieve?Why he is confined to just that much of income and not able to go above that?Way beyond that?
When your birth is not your choice what to say about other things?Why I was not born in Dhirubhai Amabani's house and why Anil Ambani. Why Anil Ambani born with a golden spoon in the mouth and not me?Why he has not to scramble for money and good living and a common man has to ?Why he got eberything on Silver or gold platter not others?What SIN other did that they even do not get foods enough for 2 times while foods is thrown away outside in rich houses?
Why a person has to take birth in a Slum and why others take birth in riches?What is the SIN of the person that he took birth in a Slum ?Can anyone answer me?Why some one is born in a big house and why one is there in slum?Why children of rich people can go abroad and take degrees in USA which has very less stress for passing the college and still said to have the US degree , even though they are below average in study and why other children has no chance to avail that even thoguh they are more good in study then the rich children?Because his father is not rich , cannot afford?But what SIN that child made that his father is not rich?
And that comes to my point .Success is related to many things many surrounding. Many things and many person has helped you in the way of success. I remember once Bill Gates said that don't avoid person while going up as you never know while coming down whom you will need. These says everything.
And what is Succes? Succes is what Dhirubhai Ambani achieved, what Bills Gates achieved. One is just a matriculate and one is college drop out. Warren Buffet was no great scohlar either. I have seen people saying that good and great academic carrier is a path for success but just try to look at all successful person they are just average people with no great academic carrer.
I define success as what Dhirubhai Ambani or Bills Gates achieved. They charited because they know that whatever they have done is too small then what they have achieved in regards of money,fame etc etc.......and that is why they give back to society.
While writing I believe in LUCK I never said one needs to sit down and the money will drop in your lap. Everyone try to be succesful and many fails and many gets success very soon and many gets success very late. Why one gets so soon and why one gets it so late?Depends upon what one mean by success.Money earning is success?Fame is succes?
One thing I have observed is that those who donot believe in luck they never accept their mistake and always try to find fault with others. Like they think that it is due to others wrong decision and misinformation they have to pass through this turmoils. They never accept that it was their decision which has making all these troube. That is the mindset of people who do not believe in luck as they believe that they planned everything and the life is exactly moving round according how they planned. And hence anything going wrong when they try to put it proper and if not done they will accuse some other person...
This is a general view and one should not put the hat on their head. I have written what I have observed and nothing more but it is a fact that those who do not believe in LUCK they find faults with others and will accuse others for their failure.
Well, if one have observed then one should have seen that someone use to drink alcohol heavily and still he lives a very long life.I have seen that type of numeruous example.Drunkard , drinking a 3rd grade alcohol, lives for many years and another person gets sick and dies in early 40's and 50's.Why that happens?Because the body didn't resist the alcohol in one person while in other person the body was able to resist the intake of over alcohol. Now does that mean that the alcohlic person who lived long developed such great body and hence he lived longer?NO, it is not?He inherited that body from his fore fathers and that is why he is living long. What is good for one can be bad for others. Our body is not ours. We didn't get it by our choice. Our birth is not by our choice.
I know one can argue that our birth and body is not our choice but we can plan it how it will be in future?How one can change the life who is living in a slum?What opportunity one is going to get?With father a drunkard, mother trying to meet both ends .These are talks.Take birth in a Slum area like Dharavi and then one need to think.One needs to go there and see how people live there and what one can do there and become successful.Go there and see how people live in a Slum.Find out how life is there in Dharavi.What type of problem one encounters which starts from early morning for Toilet.....so on and so forth....Arguements always looks good.Can anyone EXPLAIN me how he would have acted or planned HIS LIFE if he has taken birth in a SLUM?When there is problem for having food for each day how will one think of going abroad if one is not able to get good marks like Rich Peoples children use to have that type of luxury?
It is easy to say then done........
Bottomline is "Anything which one gets more then the effort made ,is LUCK..."
Friday, March 6, 2009
Am I too scared then I need to be for Global economy?
Friends,
I am writing too much negative which I do not do in normal circumstances.
But as I go on reading internet, Business papers,watch TV's business channel of India and USA I am becoming more concerned.
Just read couple of days back that in
1) USA Bankruptcy filing is up from earlier year by 29% in USA.
2)134 publicly traded cos filed bankruptcy and the figure is up by whopping 74% in USA .That is huge.
3)Scores of Banks are unable to show the proof of the Mortagages.It means that there are no papers with the bank for the Mortagages and when Bank will claim of that perticular mortagage ,it will not be able to have attachement on that Mortagage as it has no papers viz: Proof that this mortgage belongs to such and such bank.
This is horrible when we think of USA as Warren Buffet and likes always says that USA system is the most transperant and most reliable.
USA system talks of accountability and very strong rules for the corporate to follow and they need to adhere in any circumstances.
I would like to ask all those people and speakers who were damn sure about the system and reliabilty that what happened to all these.
4)AIG , a US Insurance co where US government has 80% stake has gone to bankruptcy.
Ben Bernanke says he was aggrivated when the news of AIG quater loss of $61 bn came out.
US governmnent ahs already pumped in $150 bn in AIG and that is already finished and now AIG wants more with its latest $61 bn loss.US gove alreadt immidiately sanction $3o bn after the last qr result of $61 bn came out.
So we can derive that $150 bn + $30bn = $180bn goes to AIG then I think $700 bn pacakage is nothing but just a peanut. Obama will need muc much more then this...
5) People are taking out money from 401K and IRS and that will again lead to bigger liquidity crunch.The withdrawing of money rate is going to get increased and will lead in much worser situation.
Frank Cappiello,CM of Montogomery Bros, Cappiello , in Baltimore says
" This is frightful.I haven't seen a bear market without a rally.No oine wants to stepup to the plate.WEe are going to have a whole generation wothout enough to retire on".
I think his words speaks for everything and if one can understand the finer prints of his saying there is nothing more for me to write for the US Indian residents who are following my blog and read it regularly.
I will be very very happy if someone can take a clue and save his money.
Now here are some facts which I have read somewhere and am pasting for my readers.Am sure after reading this any person can understand what needs to be done with their money lying in 401k and IRS.
Fact #1: Earnings declines are now worse than in America’s First Great Depression. Average earnings have plunged 61% year-over-year, much more than during the 1930s. In fact, the last time earnings declined more than 61% was 141 long years ago!
Fact #2: Consumer losses are worse as well. Last time around, the losses that triggered the depression were largely limited to stock market investors.
This time, the fact that the average NYSE stock has already wiped out HALF investors’ money is only the tip of the iceberg: The equity most folks count on as their #1 source of retirement savings has also been wiped out as our homes have lost a staggering $2.4 trillion of their value in a single year.
Fact #3: Debts are far larger. Like this crisis, the Great Depression was essentially a debt implosion. But in 1929, total debts represented no more than 170% of GDP. This time around, U.S. consumers are buried under a far larger mountain of mortgage debt, auto loan debt, credit card debt and other consumer debts. Result: Total debts are now close to 350% of GDP — TWO TIMES MORE!
Fact #4: Derivatives! The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reports that U.S. banks now hold a $176-trillion mountain of derivatives, many of which are extremely high risk. In 1929, these derivatives were virtually non-existent.
Fact #5: Giant failures. In the first 18 months of the 1929-32 bear market, there were many small and medium-sized bank failures. However, none were as massive or as dangerous as the giant failures we’ve experienced in the first 18 months of this giant bear market.
This time around, the failures (or bailouts) of giants like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia dwarf anything seen in 1929. And even these large failures will be trumped several times over by the impending demise of Citigroup and AIG.
Fact #6: U.S. is a debtor nation! In 1929, the United States was a creditor nation, with substantial foreign reserves. Today, the U.S. is the world’s largest debtor nation, dependent on foreign lenders to keep it afloat. That means that there’s a definite limit to how much longer the U.S. government can continue to borrow to bail out failing institutions.
Fact #7: The economic collapse and debt crisis are far from over! Just this morning, for example, we learned that
Home prices have plunged 18.5%.
Sales of existing homes have fallen to the lowest level in twelve years.
Sales of new homes cratered to an all-time record low.
697,000 American families lost a paycheck in February — a 25% increase from January’s abysmal figures.
All these figures that are coming are no fictitious figures. It is time to think and act....
Rajeev
I am writing too much negative which I do not do in normal circumstances.
But as I go on reading internet, Business papers,watch TV's business channel of India and USA I am becoming more concerned.
Just read couple of days back that in
1) USA Bankruptcy filing is up from earlier year by 29% in USA.
2)134 publicly traded cos filed bankruptcy and the figure is up by whopping 74% in USA .That is huge.
3)Scores of Banks are unable to show the proof of the Mortagages.It means that there are no papers with the bank for the Mortagages and when Bank will claim of that perticular mortagage ,it will not be able to have attachement on that Mortagage as it has no papers viz: Proof that this mortgage belongs to such and such bank.
This is horrible when we think of USA as Warren Buffet and likes always says that USA system is the most transperant and most reliable.
USA system talks of accountability and very strong rules for the corporate to follow and they need to adhere in any circumstances.
I would like to ask all those people and speakers who were damn sure about the system and reliabilty that what happened to all these.
4)AIG , a US Insurance co where US government has 80% stake has gone to bankruptcy.
Ben Bernanke says he was aggrivated when the news of AIG quater loss of $61 bn came out.
US governmnent ahs already pumped in $150 bn in AIG and that is already finished and now AIG wants more with its latest $61 bn loss.US gove alreadt immidiately sanction $3o bn after the last qr result of $61 bn came out.
So we can derive that $150 bn + $30bn = $180bn goes to AIG then I think $700 bn pacakage is nothing but just a peanut. Obama will need muc much more then this...
5) People are taking out money from 401K and IRS and that will again lead to bigger liquidity crunch.The withdrawing of money rate is going to get increased and will lead in much worser situation.
Frank Cappiello,CM of Montogomery Bros, Cappiello , in Baltimore says
" This is frightful.I haven't seen a bear market without a rally.No oine wants to stepup to the plate.WEe are going to have a whole generation wothout enough to retire on".
I think his words speaks for everything and if one can understand the finer prints of his saying there is nothing more for me to write for the US Indian residents who are following my blog and read it regularly.
I will be very very happy if someone can take a clue and save his money.
Now here are some facts which I have read somewhere and am pasting for my readers.Am sure after reading this any person can understand what needs to be done with their money lying in 401k and IRS.
Fact #1: Earnings declines are now worse than in America’s First Great Depression. Average earnings have plunged 61% year-over-year, much more than during the 1930s. In fact, the last time earnings declined more than 61% was 141 long years ago!
Fact #2: Consumer losses are worse as well. Last time around, the losses that triggered the depression were largely limited to stock market investors.
This time, the fact that the average NYSE stock has already wiped out HALF investors’ money is only the tip of the iceberg: The equity most folks count on as their #1 source of retirement savings has also been wiped out as our homes have lost a staggering $2.4 trillion of their value in a single year.
Fact #3: Debts are far larger. Like this crisis, the Great Depression was essentially a debt implosion. But in 1929, total debts represented no more than 170% of GDP. This time around, U.S. consumers are buried under a far larger mountain of mortgage debt, auto loan debt, credit card debt and other consumer debts. Result: Total debts are now close to 350% of GDP — TWO TIMES MORE!
Fact #4: Derivatives! The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reports that U.S. banks now hold a $176-trillion mountain of derivatives, many of which are extremely high risk. In 1929, these derivatives were virtually non-existent.
Fact #5: Giant failures. In the first 18 months of the 1929-32 bear market, there were many small and medium-sized bank failures. However, none were as massive or as dangerous as the giant failures we’ve experienced in the first 18 months of this giant bear market.
This time around, the failures (or bailouts) of giants like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia dwarf anything seen in 1929. And even these large failures will be trumped several times over by the impending demise of Citigroup and AIG.
Fact #6: U.S. is a debtor nation! In 1929, the United States was a creditor nation, with substantial foreign reserves. Today, the U.S. is the world’s largest debtor nation, dependent on foreign lenders to keep it afloat. That means that there’s a definite limit to how much longer the U.S. government can continue to borrow to bail out failing institutions.
Fact #7: The economic collapse and debt crisis are far from over! Just this morning, for example, we learned that
Home prices have plunged 18.5%.
Sales of existing homes have fallen to the lowest level in twelve years.
Sales of new homes cratered to an all-time record low.
697,000 American families lost a paycheck in February — a 25% increase from January’s abysmal figures.
All these figures that are coming are no fictitious figures. It is time to think and act....
Rajeev
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Obama intends to put $150 bn in Renewable Energy..........pick the stocks....
Obama pulls back the curtain: 10-year budget plan
Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Thursday February 26, 2009, 12:27 pm EST
President Obama on Thursday pulled back the curtain on his first detailed vision of the federal budget for the next 10 years.
His outline includes an ambitious plan to reform health care, half of which would be paid for by increasing the tax bite on high-income Americans.
Obama has said repeatedly that his first fiscal plan would have a two-pronged mission: to reduce the $1 trillion-plus deficit and make big investments in the future.
The administration estimates that the deficit for fiscal year 2009 will reach $1.75 trillion, or 12.3% of U.S. gross domestic product. That's a record in dollar terms and is the highest as a share of GDP since World War II.
Obama's promise: reduce the deficit he inherited to $533 billion by 2013.
"We will each and every one of us have to compromise on certain things we care about, but which we simply cannot afford right now. That's a sacrifice we're going to have to make," Obama said.
"What I won't do is sacrifice investments that will make America stronger, more competitive and more prosperous in the 21st century," he said.
Obama's outline also reveals how much more money he and his economic team are setting aside to stabilize the financial system. Their estimate: $250 billion. That would be on top of the $700 billion already authorized by Congress under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
The document the White House delivered to Congress on Thursday is only a broad-stroke preview of the president's formal 2010 fiscal budget request, which is expected out in April. Lawmakers will spend the next several months debating and amending final legislation.
The Obama outline touches on the full scope of the federal government's spending and revenue collection efforts. Some of the highlights include:
Create a $634 billion health care reserve fund: The purpose of the fund would be "dedicated [to] financing reforms to our health care system," according to the budget outline. Among the fund's goals would be to aim for universality of coverage and reduce the growth in insurance premiums.
It would be paid for in two ways. The first, expected to raise $318 billion over 10 years, would limit how much of a deduction high-income taxpayers may take. Instead of reducing their tax liability by their top income tax rate, they wouldn't be allowed to reduce their bill by any more than 28%. So for every $100 in deductions, they would reduce their tax liability by $28.
The second way Obama proposes to pay for the fund is to achieve health care savings by, among other things, reducing payments to private insurance companies offering Medicare and reducing prescription drug prices. The administration estimates these efforts could save $316 billion over 10 years.
The budget outline also notes the $634 billion fund is "not sufficient to fully fund comprehensive reform" but is a first step in the process.
Let tax cuts expire for families making more than $250,000: The president's budget would allow the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to expire for high income tax filers to help reduce the deficit. The White House estimates doing so could raise $640 billion over 10 years, although Obama's desire to extend those same cuts for lower and middle income families is estimated to increase the deficit by more than $900 billion during the same period.
Make permanent a number of tax breaks from stimulus: The president's budget seeks to make permanent the Making Work Pay credit worth up to $400 per worker ($800 per working family). It also seeks to make permanent the expansion of the child tax credit and the newly enlarged college credit now called the American Opportunity Tax Credit.
Commits more money for renewable energy efforts: Obama's budget will call on Congress to create a cap-and-trade program in which companies would have to pay for permission to emit greenhouse gases. Revenue from the program is intended to pay for a $150 billion renewable energy fund among other things.
My Comments:
The renewable energy sector is going to have a great time in future which I have discussed here many times.
Times are bad and hence stocks are going down and are available at throw away price.
I have already discussed many stocks in renewable sector.Just keep a watch on them.
$150 bn is no small amt by any standard.Oil prices are bound to go upward in future and hence the exploration cos that I have listed are worth a watch as well.
Selan Explo, Aban Llyod, HOEC,Alpha Geo,Shiv Vani, Dolphin Offshore etc needs a special attention.
Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Thursday February 26, 2009, 12:27 pm EST
President Obama on Thursday pulled back the curtain on his first detailed vision of the federal budget for the next 10 years.
His outline includes an ambitious plan to reform health care, half of which would be paid for by increasing the tax bite on high-income Americans.
Obama has said repeatedly that his first fiscal plan would have a two-pronged mission: to reduce the $1 trillion-plus deficit and make big investments in the future.
The administration estimates that the deficit for fiscal year 2009 will reach $1.75 trillion, or 12.3% of U.S. gross domestic product. That's a record in dollar terms and is the highest as a share of GDP since World War II.
Obama's promise: reduce the deficit he inherited to $533 billion by 2013.
"We will each and every one of us have to compromise on certain things we care about, but which we simply cannot afford right now. That's a sacrifice we're going to have to make," Obama said.
"What I won't do is sacrifice investments that will make America stronger, more competitive and more prosperous in the 21st century," he said.
Obama's outline also reveals how much more money he and his economic team are setting aside to stabilize the financial system. Their estimate: $250 billion. That would be on top of the $700 billion already authorized by Congress under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
The document the White House delivered to Congress on Thursday is only a broad-stroke preview of the president's formal 2010 fiscal budget request, which is expected out in April. Lawmakers will spend the next several months debating and amending final legislation.
The Obama outline touches on the full scope of the federal government's spending and revenue collection efforts. Some of the highlights include:
Create a $634 billion health care reserve fund: The purpose of the fund would be "dedicated [to] financing reforms to our health care system," according to the budget outline. Among the fund's goals would be to aim for universality of coverage and reduce the growth in insurance premiums.
It would be paid for in two ways. The first, expected to raise $318 billion over 10 years, would limit how much of a deduction high-income taxpayers may take. Instead of reducing their tax liability by their top income tax rate, they wouldn't be allowed to reduce their bill by any more than 28%. So for every $100 in deductions, they would reduce their tax liability by $28.
The second way Obama proposes to pay for the fund is to achieve health care savings by, among other things, reducing payments to private insurance companies offering Medicare and reducing prescription drug prices. The administration estimates these efforts could save $316 billion over 10 years.
The budget outline also notes the $634 billion fund is "not sufficient to fully fund comprehensive reform" but is a first step in the process.
Let tax cuts expire for families making more than $250,000: The president's budget would allow the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to expire for high income tax filers to help reduce the deficit. The White House estimates doing so could raise $640 billion over 10 years, although Obama's desire to extend those same cuts for lower and middle income families is estimated to increase the deficit by more than $900 billion during the same period.
Make permanent a number of tax breaks from stimulus: The president's budget seeks to make permanent the Making Work Pay credit worth up to $400 per worker ($800 per working family). It also seeks to make permanent the expansion of the child tax credit and the newly enlarged college credit now called the American Opportunity Tax Credit.
Commits more money for renewable energy efforts: Obama's budget will call on Congress to create a cap-and-trade program in which companies would have to pay for permission to emit greenhouse gases. Revenue from the program is intended to pay for a $150 billion renewable energy fund among other things.
My Comments:
The renewable energy sector is going to have a great time in future which I have discussed here many times.
Times are bad and hence stocks are going down and are available at throw away price.
I have already discussed many stocks in renewable sector.Just keep a watch on them.
$150 bn is no small amt by any standard.Oil prices are bound to go upward in future and hence the exploration cos that I have listed are worth a watch as well.
Selan Explo, Aban Llyod, HOEC,Alpha Geo,Shiv Vani, Dolphin Offshore etc needs a special attention.
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