Friday, November 18, 2011

Market tanked today....

Market tanked by over 300 points and looks like we are going more downward.In that scenario I feel this time we may break 4700 support and drift to 3900 level.
That is scary and I know it brings shivers to small investors and all and sundry but that is what I am able to see.
Well,  with economic policy taking back seat,rupee depreciating , Oil going up, Int rate going up, Inflation still at high, European turmoils still there and FII's selling not abating , I feel we are going to see some more pain.
I am still unable to understand why rupee is depreciating and has touched 51 against dollar.Even in 2008 we didn't see rupee at 51 , even if we saw that was for short period but from the way rupee is depreciating I am seeing it will still drift down lower to maybe 54-55.Well, the reason can be high inflation in India, economic policy now on back burner , GDP growth rated down below 7.6% etc etc and that is taking toll on our market and it may happen that India can be also downgraded in a fortnight  due to lower GDP growth, inflation, higher int rate which is hindering the economic growth and non political will to go for economic reforms and in that case we can even see capitulation in our Indian Market.
When market tanks like this, it means market is knowing that something bad is coming and hence is doing that , means going down.And for me India downgrade can make our market more jittery.....
Unfortunately this time we have domestic problem along with global turmails.Our own growth is going down, inflation is up, government not able to make reforms and that is a bad sign for our market.IIP nos are not coming good, manufacturing is slowing down , how India will grow again at 9%?That is the biggest question coming to my mind.There is not a single political person who think of India.
Wait for the market to make a bottom.Let us see some positive news coming on horizen and then decide to buy something.
As I wrote in last post sell stocks at 15-20% down.If the stock is down by 15% it means it is in downtrend and will drift down more .This strategy needs to be followed in any type of market.Be it a Bull Market or Bear Market.

There is a very big fight going at Dalal Steert  between BULLS and BEARS.We all know who are BULLS and who are BEARS.For bulls they need some positive news.Positive clue and they will make a comeback . We have to see whether these fight ends like previous fight ending an era of a new bull , RJ like HM or KP or RJ makes a comeback with vengence and drove away the BEARS.As of now news are not favouring RJ and his stocks has been hammered badly in last 4 days.
Interesting fight is going on at Mumbai.The whole atmosphere become different and no one knows what one is trying to do to other.There is some anonimity in the air.Who is doing what and who will trap whom.
Whether 4700 is broken or not.That is RJ's support for Nifty and he said in one of the interview that market should not break 4700.Now Bears are hellbent to break that a fight.......when the talk comes to , I will prove you wrong, then no one knows what can happen as other will always try to find weakness of opposite camp.They will try each and everyway to corner each other .......let us wait and see who wins......


  1. Dear Rajive,

    What is your view on navin flourine at current level. Stock is down around 10% from its 52 week high. Is it good time to invest in it for long term.Also if you could give your view on suzlon for long term.

  2. Hi Rajeev,

    Check this out on social mood effect on economics and stock market with Interesting correlations.

  3. Dear Mr.Wazim,

    Please read the views by Mr.Rajeevji once again and decide whether to invest further in the current scenario. If there is a deluge coming on your way, why do you want to build a home over there ?


  4. Wasim,
    Navin is a good stock but as Jayapal said wait for the uncertainty to settle down.Don't buy anything now though Navin is exhibiting some excellent strength I would prefer to remain on sidelines.