Friday, February 10, 2012

Market can surprise for whole year..........

There are things which has come up which makes me believe that market can surprise investors for whole year.
Well, what I am writing is somewhere I read and hence I would not say that it is my observation.But when I chekced the history I found them good and hence I am writing those traits here.

1) 2012 is a leap year and market has moved up in leap year.

2) If  January HIGH is crossed then market remain up for the whole year.

I put more importance on the second one  because in 2008 even it was a leap year market tanked but barring that leap year market went up for other leap year and here comes the 2nd trait and that is if January high is crossed then market remains bullish.

Well the other reason for me becoming bullish is PMO ( Prime Minister Office) has  started taking measures for bringing back the eonomy back on track.That is a huge positive for me....and that is one of the prime reason why I have become bullish.PMO has come out with a list which needs to be done for economy.

I have written many times here, the government needs to take steps and we will be back to normal.

FII has invested some 10,000 cr in the month of January and that has helped rupee coming back below 50 and should be back to 45-46 soon.

That is why I feel that market can surprise investors for whole year.

Another trend that I saw on Wednesday this week makes me feel that  BULLS ARE BACK.I may be wrong in my reading but that is what I feel.What happened on Wednesday , I use to see in past years in 2005-2006-2007.....
If one can observe , on Wednesday this week, market was up by over 100 points and suddenly around 1.30 pm makret tanked and went down in negative territory remained there for almost and hour and then made a comeback after 2.30 and by the end of the day it was up by 83 points.
That is intra day I call it  a intraday correction where for once market players will make people think that now market is gone and profit booking has started for the huge runup and scare investors to sell everything in F&O and also in delivary.That is a ploy to deceive investors so that those who bought at lower levels will sell thinking that sell now and buy lateron 20-30% down.But NO, that didn't happen and market made a comeback the same day.
These trend I have seen in 2005-2006-2007 where market will go down in between the day and will close in positive territory gain at the end of the day .The trend I am observing says that Bulls are trying to see what they can do , whether they can do what they wants and after a very long time they saw that they can do it and that has added the confidence that now is the time for them to take the reins in their hands.These also implies that bears has become week as bulls can move the market at their will........
It is still at a vey nascent stage but Bulls are exprimenting and once they found back their confidence then no looking back.
I feel that corrections will keep on  coming up with positive bias ..........


  1. Dear Rajeev
    I am not good in technicals...
    but i agree that there will be a good flow of policies to keep market in good humour ,

    the opening up of investment for qualified foreigners must have been behind this large FII flow (it even could be indian money with a diff face coming ho,me ;)) )

    hopefully all the posturing in Europe will end leaving a stronger structure in place

    and money printing both in Europe & Us is on short term no issues on money supply

    so the markets should keep doing well


  2. Hi Rajeev,
    Your view on the upcoming MCX IPO.
    Check the link

    Can it be a multi-bagger for long-term(5 to 10 yrs)?


  3. Vikas,
    MCX looks excellent and can be a multibagger as well in LT.
    Keep a watch or buy IFCI as well which is holding 25 lacs shares of MCX and which I have been recomending time and again 36 IFCI is going cheap......