Friday, March 21, 2008

U.S has gone from 14000 to 12500.! we've slipped from 21000 to 15000...wonders which country is in recession!.

Friends,
Well, writing after a long time.
Readers asked me again for a fresh BUY list....but I refrained from doing it at that time as I was seeing more downside and that has happened ultimately.
Well,looking at the Indian Market,it seems that Indian economy is on a slow down or recession edge rather then US economy......Lol....The reason is , while Dow went up for twice for 400 points each in almost a week ,Sensex still went down and down......
--------------U.S has gone from 14000 to 12500.! we've slipped from 21000 to
15000..!! .........wonders' which country is IN RECESSION...!!?

Well, it was obvious that Dow went up because some steps were taken for the Financial Sector there and Ben gave more money to help mortgage crisis...and tried to let the Banks come out from mortgage crisis.....and on the back of that Dow moved up twice over 400 points......but Sensex didn't exhibit the positive of Dow......
It means that either
1)The pessimism is so large that no one is still ready to take a call on Indian market and are waiting for more positives...or
2)The bears are trying to break the market without looking at the prices.....with the help of some FII's and with some insiders news of selling to come in face of , e.g.Bear Stern going Bankrupt.....as we all saw that Bear Stren sold Rs 1000 cr to make up the loss in US..
but the anamoly is, that didn't affect Dow to rise when measures were taken for Bear Stren debacle and Dow went up, while our market drifted lower and lower.Since last two days Dow is moving up......today also it is Dow is up by 233 points at 2.50 pm , just 10 min to go for closing bell,means Dow will end in Green....
One thing is clear in my mind and that is if , Market ignores bad news constantly and goes up, means it is over heating and hence a downfall is imminent,but it is also true that if market ignores Good news and still goes down, it means the fall is unnatural/or castigated and hence the end is also near for Bear phase....
Hence it can be derived from the above scenario that either Pessimism has surounded the Indian Market or Bear are over doing and in both circumstances , whenever the market will take above turn, it will be vicious......and Bear again will be slaughtered in a big way......
The breakdown of prices in Indian Market is taking place at a very low vol...hence whenever the buying will come ...it will react like a spring......
US economy is growing at 2-2.5% rate and is on edge of a slowdown or recession..while Indian Economy is moving at 9% growth and may slow down a bit to 8% or 7.5% ..but still it will remain No2 fastest growing economy in the world....
As I have written in the heading, is it the Indian Economy going in for recession or slow down or recession or US is still unanswerable.....
Well, One of my reader, Mr.Ahmed has claimed that he wrote about the down trend well in advance and he also pasted what he wrote in past...
I have written the word, "he claimed", because he has reiterated that what he wrote came out true and that too 3-4 times he ahs written this ......It means that from now onwards, Mr.Ahmed will write when will the market go up and how much will it go up and that too in how much time.....as he has also written that for 3 months we will be in a Bear Phase......
I salute the mastery of Mr.Ahmed ..........
I am glad to know that atleast one of my reader is a Master in predicting the course of market and I would request Mr.Ahmed to please guide us on the fututre course of the market, when one have to sell and when one has to buy.......so that none loose money in stock market.......I hope he will enlightened us here......as he is doing now writign about his prediction..........
Hence I would like to suggest my readers that please sell everything now, if they wants to follow Mr.Ahmed as 12300 is yet to come and hence still many water has to be flown before that....At sensex 12300 , I think still the prices will be atleast 30% down from now....and hence selling now and buying at 12300 will be a profitable trade.......
And , Last I would request Mr.Ahmed to write what he thinks about the market when it reaches 12300....I hope he will come out with some future projections , like how will be market from thereon and whether we will see the new high or not or are we going for more down side like , 9000 or will consolidate , whether Indai will be slowing down, or whether we will go in for a recession or what...for how many months will this take for the market to come up....and many how months market will consolidate etc etc........
I hope as Mr.Ahmed has written 3-4 times about his predictions coming true, he will also write what will happen next..............

9 comments:

  1. Hi Rajeev...

    Nice Post....

    Do Mr. Ahmed have a blog too ?

    Btw nice topic... I always feared speculation that is present in Indian markets. I would like to put up some data together for people to make informed decision rather than speculate.... would you be able to provide me with some information? I can write to you about it ...

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  2. Dearl all and Mr. Rajeev,

    I think no one can predict the market. i am neither expert in technical nor in fundamental just that message was my thought,feeling and observation as i have seen the situation on may 2006 like.
    1. all smallcap was continuously going UC.
    2. Curde oil was at all time high
    3. inflation was above 6.
    etc. etc.
    so i was thinking correction is around the corner.
    Once i have asked to in forum hat
    2. what is the short and medium term view of the market?
    My view:
    1.because of REPL and Futura IPO short term liqudity problem.
    2. may go dwn till 17100 in ST till REPL IPO list 7 feb. after that again nonstop 28000 till dec. (as said by Rajeev)."

    also a that time u have replied let me past over here.

    "Now coming back to market,I don't think sensex can touch 17,100....
    Market can still go down on Monday but by tuesday the recovery should start and it will be in same way as it tanked...get ready for 700 points up.....
    Results are coming good, rather can say excellent.No need for worry.Billions of money ready to get invested in India....As soon as the market will stop going down the buying frenzy will again start..and again upper circuits will be seen...
    If anyone holding good fundamental stocks no need to worry...
    "

    Let me tell u i am extream follower of ur views daily i use to check this blog. Even if i was thinking market will fall heavily i hardly sold my shares. still i am holding 70% of my holdings. 50% of my portfolio is washed out. First share i bought on ur recomendation was xl tele at135 but unfortunatly i sold after 70% profit then i start buying ur calls like, i bought the following shares and still holding it.
    Allied comp at avg 55, Southern online bio 33, jayaswal neco60, artson engg avg at 87, flex food at 26. If u see all stocks are deep in red. I am holding all the stock because u said no need to worry holding good fundamental stocks.

    I am in market only from march 2006 and i have seen only two correction and i think this was the extream in indian history.
    Let me clear that i am beginer not master and i can never guide abt. market direction. Still i am learning from rajeev bhai and other senior member from other forum. i don't have any blog.
    But i think i have the rights to put my thoughts over here if not then i will become the pasive reader i think that's a good idea.

    Ahmed

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  3. Hi Ahmed,
    Evryone has the right to put his idea but when one keeps on posting same commnet that, see what I said, and also paste his back date posting, it become a CLAIM........that see I was right and Rajeev Falied......This recurring posting of same post about your call on market of Bear Phase or Bear Market..tells that you wanted to show that you proved right.....That was the only reason I have to write those words in my last post on front page....
    Everybody knows, I am not a followers of technical Analysis and has never talked of what Charts fortell of market.....because they seldom proves correct....and maybe good for very ST indicators but we are here for LT investment....adn we do not need that...charts reading...
    Those who write about charts,like one or two recently wrote at my blog,I wiould like to ask them how many times they have made money in market while reading charts.....I have seen people getting ruined while following Charts....
    Were they able to sell at all BIG and MINOR Fall that came through last 4 yrs and made a bumper profits....as if that must have happened then the profit should not be less then 50 TIMES, I repeat NOT LESS THEN 50 TIMES.....as selling before market tanks and buying before it goes up will give enormous return.....
    Hence I write to anyone who reads my post that asking me about stocks is OK, but we here do not discuss Technicals and hence please refrain from doing it , otherwise I will have to delete it......
    NO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PLEASE......and no Phone nos please, this is not a public place to sell your product....

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  4. RD,,I think we have devoted enough space for Ahmed's comment,,,Let us move on
    I would like to know (in this extreme turmoil) what is your view for the immediate ST and LT.. I have gone back and read yr reasoning..if reasons were to hold and be sensible, Indian markets wd hv gone far but this is a mkt of extremes and hence over reaction on either side is a given thing.. Question is..are we going to test 12500 and 10000 before sense prevails ??? what is the time frame for the 28k rub, now that the unfortunate turn of events have happened

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  5. Hi Mr.Anonymous,
    I am surprised to see that you think "enough space is given to what Ahmed wrote, while I just wrote few lines on front page and some lines in Comments.
    It was neccesary to write to send the message that there will be no technical talking here.
    We will only discuss fundamentals of Market and stocks.
    I will comeup on future Market view in due course of time.
    As always it will be timely written.
    Rest assured about it....

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  6. The mkt seems to be slipping by the day - is it a safe time to buy stocks such as Jayaswal neco and Time techno (which you had recommened earlier )?

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  7. Yes Rajeev bhai you r right. I will take care about it from next time.
    Now back to market :).
    What my view is, US is the largest and matured economy in the world so if US fall into recession all economy will slip into recession beacuase all economy is highly coupled with US economy. One more thing because US is matured economy and government over there taking care of there market so US maket didn't fall much as compare to our market.
    One more thing forgot abt. other's recomendation on market lets see what morgan stanly sees.
    "Morgan Stanley sees the Bear Market culminate at 11022."
    means they beleave that we are already in Bear market.
    this heading i found from times of india one week ago. I will post complete mail as soon as i found the soft copy.

    Ahmed

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  8. Hi GRT2balive,
    Yes, I think both Jayaswal Neco and Time Techno are great fundamentals stories and the fundamentals are still intact.
    But I can't say how much down side is left from hereon in both the counters, but surely they are worth keeping trcaking and also one can add in staggered manner...
    Time Techno is having a big profit margin and I think there is no reversal in it....

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  9. Thamkyou, Rajeev !!!

    ReplyDelete