Friends,
Seems the market is trying to make a base at 14,000 to 14600 level...that is what I wrote here last...
Like I wrote in last crash in May 2006....at then 8888 that it is time for bottomfishing....
I am seeing many boaders at MMB still giving bearish calls but I think the bottom has been made...
Well, it is true that when chartist and analyst were gungho at 21000 , predicting a target of 25000 and more....means in Bull market everyone didn't know where is the top then at 14700 also after retracing for 7000 points from the high , how one can be so sure of a target of 12k or 9999 (i.e....below 5 figure....la Shankar Sharma).....or even 8000...
I hope if wishes were horses......if one think and that happens.....is that so easy.....
All the projections of lower targets seems to me rediculous.....maybe individual stocks can go down which are still highly discounted.....but overall market should remain good...if this is how SS....or anyone think market can go down.....then in next 2 months ....it can be 7000 and another 2 months Sensex will be ZERO...........
Just in last sep Shankar Sharma was very very bullish and was giving call that sensex will touch 25000 in next 6 months and he will be surprised if that doesn't happen......I was then surprised how a Bear can turn a BULL .......and now he is coming out of his true colors.....
What changed the entire outlook.....India story gone in dustbin?
Even if we expect that if we slow down even then GDP will grow at 8% ....and that is still ok at higher base.....remember our economy is growing at over 9% sonce last 3-4 yrs and has made a higher base....and constantly doing that is difficult...
Well,I heard that some good futures contract of Nifty of Apr future for LONGS were bought by some big heads....and also heard that some good short position were also created for Apr Nifty futures by the Bears.....
Now we have to see who wins in April...It is BULL or BEAR........
But my take is market should remain good ..maybe inbetwen Profitbooking coming but overall market should consolidate as written by me earlier....
I have written let March pass here in past.....
But as stocks has gone over 60% below the 52 week high.....I would again like to write some stocks which are worth a look though almost all stocks are looking extremly good among which we discussed....but still I am writing them and maybe some new included...
1)Ispat Ind
2)Jayaswal Neco( great chance to buy those who missed)
3)SBTL
4)Vishnu Chemical
5)SKS Logistic
6)Innocorp Ltd
7)JCT Ltd
8)Asian CERC
9)Sujana Towers
10)Spice Jet
11)India Glycols
12)XL Tele
13)Gremach Infra
14)Guj State Petro
15)Ril Infra
16)Assam Co
17)Alfa Transformer
18)Minda Ind
19)Flex Ind
I think I have written many of them here and at mmb.....
Take your own call....again I repeat I can go horribly wrong..........as I got in Allied Comp.....
But this is a great chance to accumalate stocks of great story unfolding in future.....take your call and invest........
We remember You were extremely bullish and posting sky high targets for sensex,why blame SS alone?You projected a target of 37000 for sensex didn't you?After that you came up with a target of 25000,then slowly you realised that market is sliping down but still you were dancing on your own old tunes,finally when market crashed this blog came up with ba ba blackship songs from you and still you say you made lacs in stock market?I highly doubt your abilities because in old days you were bullish in almost all stock you have mentioned in this blog and my dear friend let me add that those have gone down by almost 60-80% from their peaks!Last but not the least your call on Nifty going to touch 3800,well this make us sure that this target will never come from our past experence of your PAST calls.Better you do a self check soon and stop fooling people.
ReplyDeleteHi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteGood to hear that market will uphold in the coming days.
After looking at your list, I was wondering why ISPAT industries is in your list, as this is more of a momentum stock and less of fundamentals and you talk always of fundamentals, is this not a bit of contradicting yourself?
Please let me know what are the future prospects of ISPAT and maybe throw some on its fundamentals.
As I was planning to ofload my holdings in ISPAT, bought 1000 @ 80 levels.
Thanx
Dear anonymous,
ReplyDeletei agree with ur view, rajeev bhai is extrreamly bullish when market was at aorund 20000, and he has given the year targate of 28000 in jan 2007 and see after jan where the market headed, because of his bullish view i have bought allied at 60 and at 34 when he said to convert it to SBTL i converted all to SBTL but see both allied and SBTL are horribly dwn. but we can't blame anyone as he is saying he may be horribly wrong in some cases.
One more thing u should mention ur identity.
Anil
Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteCorrect me if I am wrong.In your list 19) Flex Ind is Flex Food right?
As always Thanks
Ravi
anonymous..RD has been wrong but so have been many pundits and I do not want to do a blame game here. The problem seems to be the magnitude of error and that is too big for some one who has been around as much as RD.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure where did he say about that 3800 nifty ? May be I missed it..can you give me the ref?
Also, not all can be right at all times. If they are, there will be numerous Buffets here.
Finally, my view - there is lot more down side and also prolonged downside left before the recovery can happen. but the trend will be so choppy that it will not put anyone at ease. The choppiness will take the whole fun out of the guess game and there by may not benefit investors but traders alone. This is my view..take it with a pinch of salt since I have been absolutely foolish in these guessworks before.
SD
Hi Anonymous,
ReplyDeleteOnly time will tell whether Rajeev was right in giving target of 28k by 2008 end since there still lots of time to go. and i think he said nifty might come to 4000 levels by march so dont buy.
btw he is not fooling people, he is just giving you info saying look at these stocks at the CMP and he keeps reiterating he can go wrong. if you are interested in the stock you should do your own investigation and figure out whether its good or not to buy bec its your money not his.
as you said lots of stocks he recommended has gone down 60-80% so did most of the other stocks in the market, look at reliance capital, reliance industrial infra etc
finally he always say to hold it for an year or more and do it and then decide, before passing your judgement.
i have been following his picks and have made decent amount of money doing that.
Prashanth
prashanth -- I have said, very clearly " NO BLAME GAME ". We are adults and we have to bite our own losses and can not blame others for it. In fact, I am commending RD and his patience since many has thrown in the towel in the mmb, after the slang match.
ReplyDeleteWe have to ride out this phase and obviously, with each passing low, it looks more and more dangerous and emotions will take over and NOT logic.
SD
i am confused regd identity. is the First "Anonymous" who posted on this thread is same as SD or not.
ReplyDeletei was replying to the first anonymous.
Rajeev, i think we should remove this posting by anonymous since its causing so much confusion and its always good to give an identity to the person who is posting.
Dear Mr.Desai, addressing you for the 1st time and hope you should be doing fine there. USA is full of Desais and if you move to the west coast,California, speacially Los Angeles, you will find, Desais dominating diamond trading business.I do understand that the General Secrtatory of diamond association of California is a Desai
ReplyDeleteComing back to business.Your recomedation on SKS Logistic, I would like to draw your attention to the BSE annoncement where under insider trading, promotors have sold some of their stake in open market inspite of weak ruling price of their shares
Alos, after annoncing plans for port and ship building activities, the promotors have not come out with any news on development on that front for many months now
Your commnets invited please
i also think anonymous should mention identity.
ReplyDelete37000 for sensex is for very long term and we will achieve it in years to come. if u remember Abdul kalam said we will be on top in the world in 20/20. and by looking at india fundamental i am very sure abt. 60000+ targate of sensex but it might take 10yr.
and if u see rajeev bhai is long term investor so if the script is fundamentally very strong it will definatly recover. Also most of good stock is 70 to 80% dwn.
but one thing i should say this much downside i think RD has not expected as he is very optimistic in jan and his portfolio might be dwn by 50+%.
but remember his many stocks are multibagger so start looking his new list from now we will find many multibagger.
let me tell u some multibagger from his list.
1. Assam company
2. flex food
3. jayaswal neco
4. xl tele
5. RIIL
rest script i have to search. one script i donot like is Ispat. i request RD to please give details abt. ispat ind.
Ahmed
sorry Its Doctor Abdul Kalam (our x president)
ReplyDeleteAhmed
dilip
ReplyDeletei have a lot of my stake in sks logistics,i too read the same after you pointed out,worried,hope RD replies and then let us take the neccessary action,his views does matter isnt it.
let me share some more -ve news which recnetly i read are
ReplyDelete1. Todays 7 % inflation number is a shocker.
2. Slowdown continues – Jan IP was unexpectedly weak.
3. Citigroup
Inflation leads to de-rating of Equities.
4. CLSA
An Asian Recession Looms In Late 2008
In the following sections we reprise briefly the outlook for the next 2 years.
A. Fourth Quarter 07, FH08-Export Order Cancellations begin. Baltic Indexes tank. Weak earnings reports start in Q2 08.
Container traffic to US west coast ports is already don year on year. We would expect the weakening US economy to further intensify that downturn. European economic indicators, from PMI studies to national industrial production and retail sales indices, have already peaked out.
Purchasing power in dollar terms is strong at present but by substituting Asian and US exports for domestic production, European future demand is progressively being undermined. We expect order cancellations from this source to join US cancellations in Q1 08.
B. Second Half 08-Following the Olympics linked consumption boost in Chinese overcapacity becomes apparent. Capacity utilisation drops, profits collapse, malinvestment crises ensues.
This remains the most contentious part of our Apocalypse roadmap. Clearly most international investors disagree with this conclusion. But the price action and equity market inflows into Hong Kong, China and India are telling us that equity fund managers want to show that they are exposed in some way to China, even as the Export market for both regions (the US) is in recession already.
That said, it is difficult to argue with the lack of serious policy attempts to rein in the overheating in Chinese investment and asset markets. These are likely to carry Chinese growth, in our view on ever decreasing marginal returns, through the first half of 2008.
C. Second Half 2008-First Half 2009-Commodity demand slows, prices plummet, corporate earnings at producers turns to losses, global spending weakens further.
This element of our roadmap is the most likely one to be mistimed. While Real demand and supply imbalances are not likely to become apparent until the second half of 2008, when China's investment shake-out begins in earnest-the real danger to commodity prices and commodity currencies is a financial investment unwind.
D. Second Half 2009-2010-US Bottoms out and begins new, muted growth cycle. Boomophobia hits America.
5. India: A Slew Of Downgrades-CLSA
CLSA: Downgrade, A Euphemism For Selling Everything
So investor must take utmost caution.
Ahmed
this Q expected result will be bad from last 15 Q results.
ReplyDeleteAhmed
Hey anonymous.
ReplyDeleteThe comment of yours,is not the worth publishing and iam shocked how RD allowed the same,it does show his magnamity to accept criticism,though uncalled for.
first of all i hope you must be knowing Kamalahasan and Amirkhan,both of them has a quality and that is they take calculative risk,and as always have come out successfully.They made pictures which are different,and the road less travelled
MY dear freind Nakul,Rajeevdesai falls in that genere,so stop your crap writing,he has identified shares which were raw like aptly called stone india, etc and many other scrips,the list is huge,one after the other were shares where the analysts didnt travel,because the road was less travelled,but eventually they came in droves.
so please appreciate if you keep your mouth shut,because thats the best thing you can do.
meanwhile,the shares and the tagrget he has mentioned will eventually come to the fore,since it has always worked that way,whwn all the damn good shares recommended by the TV channel analyst have gone down by 40 to 60%,it is but obivious that the road less travelled shares will definetly get a beating.
shares like sks,dilip are good shares,iam also invested in it and am sure of its rise and shall not sell,let even the promoters sell.
IT IS MY FATE EITHER WAY.
Regards
Ramesh
Hi Everybody,
ReplyDeleteI was just going through some past post and I came through this post therein I was asked about SKS Logistic.I may have given the answer at that time.
But would like to again reitrate that I still stand for my call on SKS Logistic and one can now buy it safely as it has come in a big big way.....
The land they own at Ali Buag is still there and still the unlocking of value is still to happen......
The story is still to unfold.....