Friends,
The Nuclear Deal is through.NSG has given the nod.
Now Prez Bush has to pass in the Congress.
Well, that is a trigger for our market to go up on Monday.Dow tanked by 300 points and still our market didn’t go down by 1000 points which use to be the case in the past.We use to see that type of mayhem in our market.It use to be 3 times what Dow use to be down.But our market went down by only 400 points and many were thinking that our market will tank by over 600-700 points.
Seems the decoupling is taking place in some way.
Actually there is no room for stocks to go down as most of the stocks are already down by 50-60-70% or even more.Some of the A gr stocks are still high and hence room for them to go down further but that may even not happen.
Well, I still believe that Bull Market is intact and we are not in a Bear Market.All the Bull Market ended in a Scam and there is no Scam.I have written many times here that if FII’s have not sold 69,000 cr since Jan last then we would have not seen this much down side.
I would like to ask everyone who are bearish that if FII would have not sold Rs 69000 cr had we have been at 12500?Another question.....had FII sold Rs69000 cr due to slow down of our or due to Subprime LOSS?
I think one should be able to find the answer in this question....
Our growth is still around 8% GDP and by any standard it is still excellent.The results that have come uptill now is not atall that bad and remember that this results have come while Crude was at $140 and more.Now with Crude coming down and with that inflation will also come down we should see good results from next quarter.
Now there are no such stocks remaining where investor can loose money as almost all stocks are down atleast by 50%.There is no more room for stocks to go down and hence it can be safely said that if you have not sold anything , don’t sell it now thinking that market can go to below 10k level.Ofcourse this is my view and one must take a call on his own.
Above 16000 level the bears will take our market to over 18k level on short covering and from then on we will be again in Bull Market according to the technical analyst .The charts are not exhibiting bullishness but everyone knows I do not look on charts.I know we had a trying time for last 6 months and I have been proved wrong on more then one occasion in this 6 months.So it can be everybody’s guess what to take from what I writes.Why I do not believe charts?Because they have proved wrong for the whole bull run.I remember I do have arguements with others at MMB when they use to give bearish call on base of charts and technicals and they have to often eat the word.I will only tell here that those who feels that they were able to see all these levels of 12k , then 16k, then 21k and also able to see the down levels from 21k to 12500, and also acted accordingly , as I assume that when a person sees all these he should have acted accordingly, then he must be the richest person in India.Maybe he says he is a small player even then he must have made millions as seeing all those levels upto 21k and also seeing 12500 levels can give multiple returns, by say atleast 15 times and not less.So if even one starts with 1 lac he will be at 15 lacs and more by now....
I see the valuations and see the situation.That is the bottom line that I am following.Huge investment is coming in Power sector, Water management,Telecom,Infra that we don’t need to look for export.More over with rupee depreciating that sector is also going to out perform ….viz: IT ….it will be the main beneficiary as I can’t speak more on other export oriented sector but in IT we are almost at par with USA.
Try to find companies with niche products and software which can give multiple returns in IT Viz:E -Commerce,E-business,animation,Media, Search Engine etc ,all these sector will grow with at over 40% year to year for next 3-4 years.Just heard that ADAG is taking over Fame India(Old Shringar Cinema) so watch out for media stocks like, BAG Films, Baba Arts , Grey Cell Entertainment etc.
Google has come out with a new browser ,named Google chrome and it is fast and looking nice.Anyone can down load it from internet and use it.It is a challenge to Microsoft for its Internet Explorer browser which we use.It is also a challenge to Fire Fox as well.
I would like to write here at the end of my post that though I said that I will discuss one by one stocks that I listed here last time and I did discuss 3-4 of them, but I am afraid now that I will not able to do that as it seems that it is too time consuming.I am extremely sorry to write this but I have no way to do that.
Thanks……
friends,
ReplyDeleteas brought out by rajeevji we are likely to see the beginning of a good upleg on monday. But do remember that the top of this leg may not be crossed for the rest of the year. Long term prospects are very good though as elaborated by rajeevji.
Thanks Mr Azad for the view.I hope readers will get help from that.
ReplyDeleteI hope in the next upleg market do not above 15600 and that remains the TOP upto Mar 09!I think that is the levels you have written previously.
Do keep writing your views.....
rajeevji,
ReplyDeletewell, i have been studying technicals for only about two years now. picked it up as a hobby. so still very much in the amaeture Zone.since i have been following ur writings from MMB days and benefitted from ur stock picks (though adopting a strategy based on technicals) i felt i shd express my views here and try to amplify some aspects.
i have realised a few things. just as there are good and bad fundamental analysts, there are r also good and bad technical analysts.the other thing is that technical charts are no crystal balls where u can see the future.they merely serve the purpose of a guideline.
there are some issues which r certain and we need to accept them. the first is that any market which crashes from 21000 levels to 125009 ( whatever be the reason) levels is in a bear phase. what we r seeing is a cyclical correction to 5 year bull run and it will take time to get over it.( as per my studies minimum 13 months to reach bottom).what we are seeing is a ABC-x-ABC correction( from 21000) whwre A and C are down phases and B is a bear market rally. X is a bull failure. we r currently in the last stages of the second B leg which as per me should not go above 15600.we are left with the C down leg.we do not know if the current B leg is over.the second A down phase took approx 40 sessions. the current B(up) is on the 37 th session today. this B leg shd normally take atleat as much time as A if not more. that is why i have been talking about 8-10 weeks.i amnot sure if the B leg is over or will complete in a few days/weeks. A break below 14000 will indicate that the B leg is over. C leg target as per me will be around 10000.( many technical analysts agree with the remaining C leg but only few think it will go down to 10000)within C leg itself there will be minor rallies. also there may or may not be a consolidation phase after the end of C leg and before the commencement of next bull run.however onething is obvious if and when C leg completes or near about it will be a once in a life time opportunity for investors just as the peroid 2002-2003 provided.i wd like to caution again that i am no expert and cd well be wrong---even experts go wrong anyway.
I have a request for u. could u please analyse the fundamentals of Karuturi Global. i entered a few days back at 24 levels based on technicals.
Dear Azad,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the insight.
What I wrote was atall not targetted on you.If u say u r tracking me since mmb ,then u must have seen, I use to have arguements at mmb as well with all technical analyst and u must have seen they have proved wrong almost all time...
My problem is these Chartist speaks like champions....and never ready to believe they went wrong....None of the technical analyst or chartist uptill now has come out an said in Media or elsewhere that he/they went wrong and their reading was wrong...when they went wrong all these years from 2003 to 2007 dec...It is only now they are proving correct....after 4 years of bullphase...
I will look at Karturi Global and revert back.
Dear Mr.Azad,
ReplyDeleteMaybe on technical terms Karaturi Global is looking good but on fundamentals side I do not think it is excellent.Yes, it was excellent when it was 10 paid up and around 40-50...but it is now 1 paidup and hence the EPS will be lower by 10 times.....It has a sales tuenover of 40 cr for the whole year and the eps for the shole year comes to .4 and hence the price of 23.40 is discounted by 60 times ,means P/E is 60!Seems to me the costliest stock in the whole market...
A co having an eps of .4 and quoting at 23.40 is ofcourse high....
I see no fundamentals in this shares..maybe fundas are there but it is not cheap.....
One shouild sell it...that is what my reading says...
40 cr annual sales co is quoting at rs 230 is ofcourse very very high....
But as you are technical u may buy it....