Monday, September 1, 2008

US Stocks ..........

Well Friends,
Market was up up and away on friday.It never budge an inch and it stayed with the maximum gain at the end.
I have been in USA since Last Feb 08 and I have been looking at the Wall Street as well.I have been looking at some stocks as well there.
Those who plays in Dow can have a look at
1)"PKD" ....Parkar Drilling
2)"AMAT"....Applied Materials.....
I recomended PKD at some other forum at $7.23 in Mar or so and it is already....$9.23 , means almost 30% return in 6 months.
This looks good when whole America is happy with a 10% return in a year as the FD rates or CD rates is just 3% for a year and anything over 3% is sweet for them.
I have no doubt about my both picks viz:PKD and AMAT.....They should give great returns even from hereon..........
Anyone who wants to discuss why I am bullish on the above two can write me at
desairi@yahoo.co.in...
I can discuss many other stocks which I tracks in USA....and many more things I am observing in USA stock market...

What I have observed in US market that almost no shares are available cheap....like say if the co is about to make a turn around and about to declare a good result it run before that and then it is not available below 10P/E.....I have tried to find some good shares with good earnings and they are all above 20 p/e.....and still the US market is considered cheap!
While in India the whole universe is available at throw away price......great story going abegging..but as is said in Bear Market no one wants to stick out the neck and give a buy call which I am doing here maybe foolishly.....!
But I must say that US market is a matured market.I have no doubt about that now.When Fed decided to bailout Feddie and Fenie it was a mayhem and whole world was thinking that now USA is gone.But that didn't happen....Dow recovered on positive news.....Only Freddie and Fanie were down and other stocks gained with positive NEWS......and Dow also recovered in same fashion.Why that is not seen in India?Why with all negative news our market tanks and do not climb with good news as is seen at Wall Street?Why our market do not exhibit the same charecteristic?
The only reason I am seeing is we have become more dependant on FII flows and when they sells in our market , there is mayhem.See, Lehman br, Citi gr,Merill Lynch, UBS,Bear Stearn and many more has made huge loss .The loss is in Billons of dollars and still Dow is not going below in bear market territory!
The total loss in Subprime mortgage is as big as $600 bn and that is almsot the whole Mcap of Indian Market...Wow!
I have written here many times that when FII stops selling , our market will rise.But we are still seeing the selling of FII's coming from like Citi and Lehman br.The latest figure I have got is that the overseas entity has made a profit of $12 bn last year from emerging markets and there is no other avenue to make such profits elsewhere.Maybe I am writing this time and again and many must be saying we are fedup reading this.When that will happen ?But that is not in my hand as overseas MFs are continuosly making loss and every now and then the news of Loss keeps coming in and hence any hope of Indian Market recovering gets deminished...
But I think and hope that later then sooner the things will get better in couple of months.I remember I wrote that by Mar next year we may see our sensex trying to touch the previous high...let us see....if that happens....we have seen a long bearish phase timewise and pricewise and those who were new in the market are taken aback as the value is deterioting daily and stocks are making new lows.
But then Bearish Phase are the best time to buy.But who has got the money?Yes that is a million dollar question...and to them the best thing is to hold what they have as with no Scam in Indian Market, which I have pointed out here many times, we are bound to be back to normal.All the previous Bull Market in India ended with a Scam.While there is no scam here and hence I see no reason why we shouldn't be back to normal.
Maybe we are slowing a bit but not slow enough to be at so low end of Sensex...Viz:12500 or as many analyst predicts at below 10K....
Well, these are all my views and I maybe tottaly wrong.Take your own call....
Thanks...

6 comments:

  1. Hi Rajeev
    Pl.suggest some good stocks for the USA market too time to time as like me a lot of NRI fans are also reading your messages. What is your views on Cognizant technology solutions, ADR of Sterlite and Tata motors and ICICI bank
    thanks
    Venu

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  2. yes there is plenty of reasons to be optimistic about indian markets. Anyone entering at current levels for the long term cant be very wrong.While it is true that markets will probably head lower and present an opportunity of a life time. but ofcourse timing the markets is very difficult.
    So far during the last 4 weeks my technical assessment has held firm although my upperlimit of 15300 was breached marginally.
    As I see it now the markets will continue to be range bound for the next 4-6 weeks between 13500 and 15600. During this period we are likely to first have an up leg followed by a down leg and then again an upleg, all within the above limits.October shd see the end of the bear market rally which began from 12500 levels, at 15500 or thereabouts.Thereafter the possibility of the last leg of the bear market which itself may take 2-3 months or more.

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  3. Dear Venu,
    I don;t think I need to discuss Indian stocks listed in USA.
    I will only write on US stock only....

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  4. Hi Rajeev
    thanks for your reply immediately. Cognizant is a US company and not listed in India. Can I buy some shares now as it is in a mouth watering level? Can you pl. share your expert opinion on this please?
    thanks Venu

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  5. Venu,
    The reason it has gone down is Cognizant has annouced some slowdown in orders.I remember I read it in ET.
    That must be the reason it has gone down.I do not track it here...
    Take your own call...

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  6. Rajeev Ji

    Do you have plan to write about US company's in this same Blog as well? or somewhere else?(Like emails..other blog etc).Please let me know.Even though I am not buying anything here in US.But one thing I want to tell you at this time is,You gave me some kind of confident in Indian market(when I started reading your postings in MMB last year).So may be same thing will happen to US market also?if I get some of US companies list from you.

    As always thanks for your good work

    Ravi

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