Friday, September 19, 2008

Market recovered at the end of the day....

Friends,
That is how market is!Did anyone expect that market will bounce back to normal after it went down for over 700 points?
I would like to ask Mr Azad who is an ardent followers of charts and technicals whether there was any respite seen yesterday on charts when market actually covered all the loss but ends in positive.......Is there any clue that charts is now showing..after making a double bottom at 12500!
Was there any thing that pointed that we should recover all the loss ground and close in positive territory?
And after seeing this..what does the charts fortell.....are we still to see the 9k levels......by Jan /Mar 09?Is there any significance when our market has made a double or triple bottom?
Mr Azad , this is not a criticism but am asking of curiosity.....
But it is clear that
1) It is not the fundamentals that is deteroitating but the sentiment is making the trouble.
2) When Dow went down by over 400 points why our market is showing strenght?
3)As I have written in comments, the short position created by Lehman Br is closed...is it that effect?
4)All the previous correction or whatever happened.....was due to high levearaged position of traders in F&O and also in cash stocks while while borrowing finance from the Brokers....etc....
5)The fundas are still in tact.....8% GDP is no mean less by any standard.
6)That is the only reason I am still writing about bullish view....
7)Crude is coming down , hence inflation will come down.....
8)3 out 5 big banks has gone bankrupt and only two is left.........eg.Bear Stern,Lehman,AIG gone ....Morgan Stanly and Goldman remains....there are news that now is the turn of UK banks to go bankrupt.....but I need to ask are they big enough like Lehman and Bear Stern to make that big an impact?

Well,I am writing the concluding part as I had to discontinue my post due to some work....

The summary of the above is, Can we go below 12500?
I would like to know what technicals analysis says after todays recovery............
The only problem Indian Market was facing is selling of FII and looking at the way market reacted positively from the days low of 12500 put me in a dilemma whether the wrost is over for our market.The only thing haunting our market was FII selling and I think with Lehman Brs bidding a good bye to Financial World....there seems no one more remaining to sell in India.
I am even seeing cross transaction between 2 FIIs which seems to me a very good sign.
I would like to write here that all my picks which have come to abysmal level are worth looking at.eg.Sujana Towers from 200 to 48, Gremach from 550 to 60, Jyoti Ltd from 180 to 50 etc etc...
If we are not going to buy now then when?
These are levels of market sentiments and not of fundamentals....The sentiment is low and hence we are seeing these prices which seems to me a life time chance to have it.
First Global Shankar Sharma is bearish for 2-3 yrs.He says that we will not be able to see the highs for 2-3 yrs.His prediction is on the world economy slowing down and the Financial Mess that has come out.
I also some times gets surprised and even annoyed how the top Honcos who are having so big a salary can just take down a 140 year old company, Lehman Br to ZERO in a quater or maybe couple of quaters!I need to pat them on back that even a simple and a lay investor would not make mistakes like they did and they are said to be the most learned people of the world.
The biggest mistake according to me was made by Lehman Br was investing in Sub prime Mortgage papers for $140 bn and that is Zero?
I can't understand how the things happened so suddenly and the value becomes Zero....Lehman Br 52 week high is $68 and it went to $.65, means 65 cents.Does it mean that what they invested in the papers of Sub prime Mortgage , $140 bn , has become Zero?How that can happen?How a value of $140 bn can become zero....the houses are still there...they can atleast fetch 50% of the original high....so it comes to atleast $70bn...
But buying Sub Prime Mortgage papers is a biggest mistake and there can be no mercy on those to took the decision and who approved the transaction.They have put the whole world economy at risk.
But I think the whole Model of western world financial sector need to get sae change and am sure there will be sweeping changes.

7 comments:

  1. Rajeev Ji,
    I just want to share one thing with you.You are really good in picking up good shares and always taken the less travelled path where the so-called analysts and market-makers have not travelled.Which by any means is a good way of finding excellent stocks before they become market-favorites.Many have made money by follwoing your picks.Instead of looking for good business with sound fundamentals,nowadays you seem to use more energy in analysing markets and writing your views about the market.You and us never ever worry about the direction of the market,we buy the good business whose earnings are very strong and Sell in Profit.Then why should we bother about the temporary ups and downs in the market?Dont take me worngly.I have good respect for you,so I take advantage of you.

    Regards,
    Sambath

    ReplyDelete
  2. dear rajeev

    simplest lay man calculation tells that a 140bn investment cant be zero.
    There shall be some worth,why and how did it go bankrupsy if any body can convey me for my knowledge sake in simple terms will be a great help.

    Suppose i take a loan and buy a house for sixty lakhs from a bank at an EMI of 35000 and i as a person say am not credit worthy,subsequently i shall be not able to pay say because i lost my job.

    there are suppose 1000 people like me and all have availed sixty lakhs and have stopped,

    then that case the flat mortgaged has some value cant be zero.?

    excellent question, how can such a big company go bust just like that.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear Rajeev,

    I read it somewhere in your blog about JMC Projects. Yesterday it has hit 52 week low @ 140/- . What you feel. Is it a safe bet at this price for short to long term prospective. Or hitting 52 week low shows any bearish sign on this script. Please advice

    Regards,

    Jayapal

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jayapal,
    JMC is a great co.Nothing wrong with the fundamentals.....
    52 week low is bad sign though.One could wait for further downside or may buy in SIP manner.
    JMC is a Kalpatar Power gr and it is a great co....
    JMC have interest in mines as well.
    JMC is a great LT buy...though in ST it may try to touch 220....in 3-6 months....
    Take your own call.....I may prove wrong in predicting the prices...

    ReplyDelete
  5. rajeevji,
    technically this upmove is merely another bearmarket correction likely to reach 14700 levels. Even upto 15600 levels the danger of 10000 remains. lets hope the sensex takes out 15600 and gives us a reson to cheer.As u say India is still a very strong growth story perhaps for a few decades. Markets will turn for the better in the early part of next year.We can do nothing but await the end of this global meltdown. Are we witnessing a shift in global financial power centres? anybodys guess.
    For the first time in life this week I shorted the markets. Some F&O futures play. Lucky these 5 days heve benefitted me more than the whole year.
    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dear Azad,
    I am absouletly surprised to see how u didn't go for shorting the market when u were knowing that from 21k it has to come to 14k and then 10k....on chart...maybe u will do next time when u have confidence to do that....
    But anyway I am happy that u eventually did shorting and earned for the whole year....
    Let us see how things pans out from hereon......
    If 10k is to come according to charts then no way we can break 15600 ......I wants to see which comes true....10k or break 15600...
    because everyting is seen on charts and everything is happening accordingly.....which didn't happen for last 4 yrs from May 2003 to Jan 2008!
    Where I am puzzeled is, why chart didn't show 21k!and why it is showing 10k now! why they went wrong for 4 whole years....
    I have been the spectetor of all chartist,nalayst , technical analyst all through this 4 yrs....hearing chartist and technicalanalyst at cnbc, ndtv, reading news papers,reading articles on charts,reading experts invitation to become their subscriber for their paidsite which gives tips to earn lacs on technical analysis.....
    Mr Azad, I need to ask only one thing....to all chartist and technical analyst, if they can see everything on charts and it is almost great theory then why they should go for subscriber?Why don't they play themselves and make million rather billions of money?
    CAN ANYONE ANSWER ME THIS QUESTION?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear Rajeev,

    Thanks for your reply on my query about JMC Projects.

    Best Regards,
    Jayapal

    ReplyDelete