Thursday, November 13, 2008

Don't BUY now.............

This is the first time I am writing this post wherein I am suggesting not to buy anything now.
Market is going to give us more time to buy and average stocks where one have bought high.
Just be on the sidelines.Me seeing more pain coming.We may break the previous low of 7600 and even go to as low as 6500.
These are all my assumptions and I may go horribly wrong but things are not looking good as of now.As I have written only after June 09 we can see some good stabilisation.Price correction has happened and still more to go for certain A gr stocks and hence they can still go down and hence we can see sensex at 6500 and maybe below that.
These are scary views but then I must write it here.Time wise our patience will be tested and that will start from June 09.There is not going to be a V shape recovery.
These are pessimist view but the countries like Russia ,Ireland,Zimbabwe, Pakistan and many more are facing rough time for their currencies and the major impact has been because of Oil going down vertically.
Commodities down turn is affecting Brazil.Can anyone imagine Korea and China's stimulous pacakage is of almost same amt?That is what happening and that is making me nervous.
Cash gr stocks are already battered and hence nothing much to lose here but A gr stocks are still to get hammered.FII's are holding big stake in Ril Ind, SBI,L&T, Tisco, LIC Housing and many more like that.So they will still sell those which can take our Sensex to 6500 and even below that.
FII wants to still sell whatever they have and hence we are seeing still unabated selling of around rs 700 billions each day average.They are not over.
Every rise will be dealt with selling who has got trapped at higher prices at whatever good price they get.
This will go for months and hence the recovery is not going to come soon.
But at the end I would again like to iterate that our market will and should make a come back.We should be back at 2003, which I have written in past here.I am talking of Int rate and infaltion....


  1. Hi Rajeev:

    You are 100% right ,I am also of view Cash Is going to be King with 2 variables in coming future
    1] 2009 Lok sabha elections coming in 6months who wins who lose ??? .
    2] Jan - June 2009 will see what path does president - elect Obama
    take. And does US economy recession futher worsen from here.

    we will see many more black mondays fridays ....

    On the postive note the best part of 2008/2009 compared to 2003 is we know the higher target of index 21000 which in 2003 no one even thought of it in their dreams.

    Nice informative webcast for you


    Let me know your thought on the above article ,do you see US economy going bad to worst.


  2. Very Very surprising !!! From being Bullish to becoming totally bearish.
    Hmm. Maybe this is what happens to the Best of us when the market is just about to bottom out. My views are absolutely opposite to yours. I am expecting the market to bottom out anytime soon.

    While recovery may take time, downside is limited.
    Infact this is the best time to buy beaten down stocks in the infrastructure segment as one may never get these prices ever again.

    My best pick would be Madhucon projects fo that elusive ten bagger return in a maximum of five years !!!

  3. Dear Rajeev,
    u r right i was knowing, there is chance of going to 6200 but i can't digest that level so i start buying heavily now i am 90% invested and my portfolio is 10% dwn.
    Thanks for the view, I have to look for some up move to exit.


  4. No replies .. no updates ??? r u also in a deep freeze like our credit markets ?? LOL . Just kidding rajeev. Hope u r doing good and making lotz of profits

  5. Hi Mitz,
    Well, I am getting colder due to winter season in SC.
    Me too my position is also the same like anyone.PF down by over 65%.But am thinking of saving some money to buy in Feb 09 around.
    Let us see uptill then what happens...Credit Card crisis is also looming large on US economy and now its turn to come out.
    Unless FII stops selling in India I see no respite in our market....

  6. It must be real fun in all that cold weather. I had a great experience of snow in the beautiful kashmir valley. So is everyone around there in a festive mood for christmas ? or is the mood really bad ?

    Anyways i dont know y but i feel that the worst is almost behind us and from here onwards we will slowly start inching up. nothing technical or fundamental news to prove it but just a feeling. I may be totally wrong on it.
    However i am now totally invested and i shall wait to see what returns i get in the next five years.

    I bought 2000 shares of madhucon and sujana towers; 500 shares of kernex micro and neyveli lignite; and 100 shares each of l&t, micro inks and bgr energy.

    Hopefully some of them if not all can give me good returns over the next five years. What do u think ?

  7. Dear Rajeev,
    Today my portfolio is 27% down. In last 7 session its down by 15%.
    didn't got chans to exit even though u have sended the message at right time.


  8. Dear Rajeev,
    Hope u are doing good. I am still awaiting your views on Madhucon Projects. Actually i am having 100 shares of L&T bought at 760. I am wondering if i should sell them and add more of madhucon pro to average my cost which is about 52 ???? What do u say ????

  9. Hi Mtiz,
    What can I say!I have already written that I do n ot see any sense buying anything now.Hence switching or averaging also makes no sense.
    Anything like that should we think is only after Feb09....
    That's all I can say.....