Market is up by 3000 points from lows.....

Friends,
We have seen a "V" shape bounce back in our market.I have written bounce back because we may be not out of woods still.But seems 7600 bottom should act as a good resistance.
Let us think how is India's scenario.
According to me our growth is intact.I can't believe that our growth is hampered and will not come in years to come according to what some use to have a view.
There is no reason how the infra sector,Agri sector will not grow.There is still lots to be done.Our roads,Railways,Agriculture needs lots of capital investment and lots of investment is still to be done.Maybe due to higher int rate and CRR hike in past money is not coming cheap but that scenario is reversing and we should be back at 5-6% Int rate and less inflation around 5-6% within a year.
I had written many times here and I write it again that the prices we are seeing is because of FII's selling.Agreed that economic growth can slow down to 6-7 GDP but still we are much much higher then any other countries in the world except China.Atleast I can say that if Jan 08 prices were inflated one and they were in excess of 40-50%, then prices which are just 10% of high is also not acceptable.Yes, one may say that what makes the difference if I say unacceptable, they are there.But many prices has gone down even by 95% from high even though the results had come good.Hundreds of stocks are available at half the BV and many are available at 1-2P/E.
As I wrote this is a life time phenomenone that such a credit crises has happened and hence it is a life time opportunity as well to buy stocks as well.
I personally believe that those having even 3-5 lacs will make a FORTUNE IN NEXT 2-3 YEARS.The return can be as big as 1000% , means 10 times from the current prices.The credit crunch is not going to get eased so soon and every rally will be met with selling.But actually I am seeing a different scenario in next 2-3 months , viz after Feb 2009...and it can start even now.
The general feeling uptill now for investors was SELL ON EVERY RALLY but now those who have money should be buying at every fall.These are known as smart money.Those are rich with CASH.New breed of investorss will come and they will take new position. These has happened in every new bull run.

But it is for sure that we are going to bounce back sooner then later.Atleast I believe that it can't be 10 long years of hibernation...Indian market has never remained in Bear Phase that too long..that is too long a period.Many are comparing our bullish run with Japan but that is also not comparable.Japan's Nikkie was around 2000-3000 when the bull run started but went on to make 39000!Even many are comparing with housing bubble of ours with Japan but that also seems to me not possible.There is going to be some price correction in Real Estate and we are seeing them already but I am atleast not seeing the rerun of Japan Asset disaster.We still have a long way to go in comparision to Japan.
According to my experinace we have seen much bigger percentage upmove then we have seen in recent one....In 982 sensex was 370 and from thereon we have made a high of 4565 in Harshad Mehta Bull run in 1992 .i.e. in 10 yrs.That was a 1133% jump.While from 2800 in 2003 we saw a Bull run of 21k that is 650 %, means if we go by the history then we should end at atleast 31k and not less which is atleast 1133% from 2800 which our sensex made a low in 2001 when the Twin Towers of USA were attacked and were annihilated by extremist.That is far far lower then the previous one.Well, all these statistic doesn't matter to me.These are all figures and I personally do not put much weightage on all these , but this is for those who think like that.I am just gicving them the figures.
There is where the Charts comes.The Fibbocini levels.It says that market use to make a bottom at 61% level of the previous high.But it made a low of 7600 which is 63.8%! Now what new taregts technicals gives I would like to know.It has breached the 61% retracement.Now what! That is broken...Someone has send me a list how much stocks were borrowed from FII's to hammer individual stocks.e.g In ICICI, borrowed stocks and get hammered is over 1 cr shares.Now one need to think what can be other figures for other stocks and what can happen if these shorts whenever they will get covered.Maybe market broke the Fibocini levels of 61% and hence they must be trying to say that we will imbibe Japan as it also did the same.Time will only tell that....
As I have written here in past that we can see more good growth not before by June 2009 as I think that much time will be taken for the economy to bounce back for Int rate to come down ,CRR back to normal, Inflation back to 5-6 % etc.But as I have been writing here that market use to discount 6-9 months ahead, I can say that market is discounting next June 09 qr results in a way that world is going in for a recession and that is already discounted....and that is what RJ has spoken at Diwali meet along with SS and SA.
Many can say that it was FII's money that is why we saw a Bull run.Agreed .But they have pulled out some $8-9 bn.Means we need $20 bn to surpass the previous high and that is no big deal for India.When $1500 bn is lying dorment in Swiss Bank and the saving rate is highest in world , just 1.5% of Swiss money can propel our market to newer highs and hence I think for $20 bn investment in our market domestically is not a big deal. We actually don't need FII's.
Well,I have recently bought Gas for $2.13/Gallon in USA for my car .I very clearly remember that the highest price I paid for Gas in South Carolina was $4.59 when I came in SC 3 months back and that too in state where the Gas prices are almost the lowest in entire USA.So the gas in America is down below 50% and that makes sense.Makes sense in the way that if Gas prices are down by 50% , means prices of Milk and grosseries will come down and it has already come down.Milk which was at one time was $5/gl is now at $3.39/gl.That is how America's politicians works and how FED decides.This is going to help the US economy in great way.The consumption will remain in tact now they will have to deal with Hosuing sector debacle.But with $700 bn bill passed the credit crises should ease a lot once the money are poured in the system.People forgets that US has starlwarts like Warren Buffet and likes of Bill Gates who always think for the betterment of America.Their advice will and should come handy whoever wins tommorow.
Warren Buffet has already said that those having Cash will be at loss.This the time to buy Dow stocks. I can will only say that those predicting of US economy falling down can prove wrong.
People are still sceptic of 1929 scenario but no one know what happened in 1929.I have written this many times here.Vallabh Bhansali also said the same in his lastest interview.
I suggest to read Valabh Bhansali interview again and again and also the Diwali interview of RJ, SA and SS .Read them carefully and try to digest what all are saying and try to think whose thinking is rationale.
My thinking goes with VB and RJ.
Rest is your calls.
I am not a Pundit.I am here to share my views.I would only write at the end of my post that just try to reread my old post on CRR hike and Int rate hike, RBI Policy and my post on "Short selling is another name of insider trading" and try to see whether that made any sense.....Just go back and see what I have written in past.
I had proved wrong in predicting the market direction in last 7-8 months.So take your own call....