Thursday, October 1, 2009

No revival in US; big economic crisis ahead: Marc Faber

Taken from Moneycontrol website"

The US markets ended lower for the second session yesterday on the back of mixed global cues and disturbing job loss data. Does this mean we’re still not out of the woods? Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report feels nothing has been solved in the US in the last 6-9 months and that a big economic crisis was still to be seen ahead. “The policy makers in the US, are still in-charge and if you look at what has happened in the US over the last 6-9 months, nothing has been solved. It has been postponed through fiscal and monetary measures, precisely the measures that brought about the crisis in the first place. So enjoy your ride in asset classes as long as it lasts but I think we are seeding the next crisis and it may happen in the next three months, maybe tomorrow, maybe five years, maybe only in 10 years but I think the big crisis is still ahead of us.” He said that the markets were overbought and that the economic news was still not good.

My Comments:
Market Guru,Marc Faber,as he is fondly known as , has predicted that the Crisis is not over in USA and it is bound to come but when?he is unsure of.....He says that it can come tommorow,next 3 months, next 5 yrs or next 10 yrs........
Now if someone wants to believe Marc Faber and take position, what he should do?Remain scared for rest of the 10 yrs, 5 yrs , 3 months or tommorow?
One should keep in mind that the crisis can be averted, if it is for 5 yrs or 10 yrs ,then anything can happen and that crisis can be averted for infinite time.


  1. Rajeev ji

    Why Faber or Jim Rogers are saying these things is because they never expected the bounce back so early and couldn't participate in the current rally in any of the EMs.

  2. Dear Rajeevbhai can please give ur views on MARKSANS PHARMA trading at 6/- face value 1. a Glenmark Pharma Company. Ur views awaited.

  3. K,
    I am tracking Markson Pharma and yes, it is Glenmark Co.I like it.One can take position in it....

  4. "No revival in US; big economic crisis ahead"----nasty mind games nothing else.

  5. Hi Rajeev,
    Today Rolta India gained 7.47%.The company fundamentals look good. Can it be a multi-bagger at CMP with long term horizon?

  6. Vikas,
    I have already recomended it in my past calls.....looking good....

  7. Yeah, Right....

    This is like saying : "You will die someday, I don't know when, now, after a year, after 20 years, after 100 years, but you will die for sure!"

    Isn't it obvious ? Crisis (Downtrends and Uptrends) are part of life. You don't need anyone to predict it!

  8. Dear Rajeev

    Do you track Venkys India .

  9. Vikas,
    I don't track Venkeys India because it is pron to desieses....One virus and all profits are gone....

  10. Thanks Rajeev for that information about Venkeys. I was tracking it, but missed this crucial point

  11. uno,
    That is why I always use to tell my readers that read my replies as well.One will always find something to chew upon....I don't say I am a Master but sometimes one point of others can make a difference.....

  12. Hi, Rajeev,
    will buy Rolta on dips.Thanks.
    Any views on Hanung Toys and Bilcare( i think RJ owns this one)

  13. Vikas,
    Yes, RJ must be holding Bil care but it has already become a big multibagger for him already.
    Hanung Toys looks good...

  14. Again thanks Rajeev for the prompt reply. Will buy Hanung toys. But do you know other toy comapnies listed on Indian markets like TOYS-R-US in USA = held by WB and PL.I tried to search , but didnt find any. If you have come across any such good company, do suggest.

  15. Hi Rajeev,

    Hope you are ding fine.
    How is life treating you in US?
    What do you think about MTZ Poly and Deccan Gold?

  16. Rajeev,

    What do you feel about Nectar life and VIMTA Labs?
    Nectar life seems to be promising story ahead ans same is with VIMTA Labs in a very niche sector in India.

  17. Hi Rajeev,
    one technical question. I was going through Hanung toys Annual report from their web-site. I am little confused about following.
    For 07-08 PBT-7553 lakhs and For 08-09, PBT-7376. And 07-08 PAT-6074 and for 08-09, PAT-6445.
    That means PBT is less compared to previous year but PAT is more compared to previous year.Is it possible?
    As you know i am Doctor by profession, so my accounting is poor. I had this doubt. Just that is it possible that PBT is lower but PAT is higher.
    Please clarify.

  18. vikas,
    if pbt is lower then pat then it means some extraordinary item is added after pbt.....check it....some item must be added...and hence pat is higher then pbt....and btw i am also a science graduate , me too same as u...actually PG

  19. Hi Rajeev, again thanks for prompt reply. I went through the report, but didint find any extra-ordinary items. but the income-tax paid this year is nearly half of previous year as per the report.
    I had another query about HAWKINS COOKER. i totally missed it out during the rally and tracking it from 400 and above.The company is just excellent. Brand name, relatively few competitors ( Prestige- gone into real estate business), continuous five years of increasing EPS, less debt, really good ROE and ROCE and on top of that cool dividend yield.
    My question is -can it be a multi-bagger from CMP?
    With regards,

  20. dr,
    as u said it has already runup from below 100 to over 400.makes no sense buying now for multibagger return....
    and yes, that income tax amt is extraordinary item....

  21. Dear Rajivji
    Please may i know your valued ideas on Lakshmi Energy & Foods Ltd.

  22. Sandeep,
    No idea on Laxmi Energy but keep a watch on LT Foods(Daavat)....

  23. Hedge fund stocking up on Hawkins

    Check this