Friday, December 3, 2010

Time to Look at SNL Bearing again..?cmp....39

SNL Bearing is my old call given at Rs 11 and then it went on to touch Rs.107 and then went down and down to make a bottom of Rs 32-33 recently and is now again up.
Those who tried to average at 70 or 50 , their fingures were burnt and it went down and down more and more scaring those who bought around 70 or 50.But no worry, it will bounce back and should cross the previous high but will take time.
But after touching low of 32-33 recently it seems that all the poison is taken out and is now on a firmer ground.Even from now it will take time to cross the previous high of 107 but looks like 32-33 should not come again.
So it is buying time again for SNL Bearing.The fundamentals has not changed and the last runup from 11 to 107 was ahead of performance but that is how market is.When momentum starts in any stock, it keeps going up and investor feel they miss the opportunity and when they try to buy high the down journey starts.
Well, now at 39 looks like a good bet for LT , means for couple of years.
It is still NRB Ltd Co and the promoters has not changed and hence still it is strong on fundamental footing.
The thing that needs to watch out closely is what orders SNL is getting and what will be the topline.That is important and with range of products with it, there shouldn't be any problem.
Investors need to look at these type of Cos more and more instead of investing in hearsay TIPS from friends which is make or break like situation.Either one lose the money or make huge but that is not the cup of tea for all.
Here again we can see that SNL is a MNC promoters Co and there can be no scam under it.It is a profit making Co and is in a sector which is growing.The bearing demand will keep on going up with Infra projects coming up.
SNL seems to me the safest bet in present scenario which ia at a very good price at just Rs 30-40.
Remember friends, making money in market is not easy.One always gets carried away by market and advices from friends.
Recent downtrend shows that in just 10 trading session , market was down by just 7-8% but midcaps were down by 30-40% .So it is never easy to make money in stock market.One mistake and all profit in others stock made vanished.
I again write here to my readers.
"Please do not play in F&O and please do not do day trading or any type of trading.Be it a week or 15 days or even a month.Don't borrow money to buy stocks.It is never a great idea any time"

Market never fulfill our wish.It has a very bad habit to prove all of us wrong again and again.When players like Harshad Mehta,Ketan Parekh and some old players who tried to play the market according to their wish didn't obliged them then who are we? We are just peanuts.Respect the market.Learn to respect the market.One think that he will buy for 1 month and take 10-20% profit and sell it,but that rarely happens.Even if it has happened once it will not happen next time or thrid time.Making profit in one trade or couple of trades will give you a false confidence that now you know how market works but that is never true.When I was in India, I have seen people playing in F&O and day trading and they make such a loss that they goes in debt and someone else has to pay for them , like father, brother etc. or if no one is there to pay for the loss then he will go hiding some places or has to leave the city and live somewhere else.Yes, I have seen such people.Even if they come to that city to meet someone they keep hiding from people who owes money from him.That is not a good situation for  anyone.
If wishes were horses.Only those who has the capacity to hold for 3-4 yrs will win.There is no guarentee that stock you have bought will run in 6 months or even after a year so one must always be ready to hold for longer time.
I once wrote that in stock market, it is never 1+1 =2.
I would like to add here that many times 1+1=0 or 1+1 =  -1( minus 1)
as we have seen and even I have experianced that your whole investment becomes Zero and even one goes in loss.One gets in debt and that is where the formula comes 1+1 = -1.
But if you have conviction and if you are doing the right thing at right time then 1+1 = 11 .


  1. What is the full form of SNL?

  2. Hi Rajeev,

    Isn't NUTEK going in line with SNL bearing? Or some other issues with NUTEK management. Would be great if you share your views.


  3. Hi Nakul,

    I can't find SNL bearing on Did it have a different name earlier? Is this the same as NRB bearings.

    really sorry to be asking such a silly question but I tried and still can't find it on


  4. Hi Santosh/ravi

    Look for shriram needle bearing.


  5. ravi/santosh,
    Always open bse site when I recomend a stock.Write just first 3 letters of the stock and you will get the name.
    I never open any other site other then bse.No icici direct or nse......I just open and look at all parametres I wants to in it.
    So whenever I write any stock and you don't find on other site then just go to bse site and write 1st 3 letters of my stock and you will get it there and then read the annoucement there of that Co.

  6. sir read ur article on hbl power good one so bought but it is not moving now gulf batteries might start operations in december it seems immense potential kindly re write whether it is still a hold

  7. sunil,
    HBL is a hold and add on dips or even at this price.
    Stocks take time to mature......HBL needs better discounting around 15-20 p/e , so do the maths....

  8. Hi Rajeev & Fellow-Bloggers,
    Pasting below the link from business line about views of Nouriel Roubini on Indian Growth.

    With Regards,

  9. Thanks Rajeev (am so used to calling you Nakul!)

    Thanks Ravi for the quick info.

  10. hi santosh,
    I understand it is the habit of mmb problem....

  11. Hello Rajeevji how are you? and Hi to all the fellow board members.... rajeevji and all want to know your views on Punj lloyd and suzlon energy, it seems both the companies have huge debts but for sure will do good in coming years, just wanted to know thought of all of you on the blog and also Mitzzzz..PSL came to a very low price think around 89/- or so... think it is up there to be grabbed in truck full of PSL shares....

    warm regards

  12. Hi reshma,
    I feel that Punj Llyod is good even with high debts.I never liked Suzlon Ltd and will never suggest anyone to buy it.
    Among 2 best is Punj Llyod.

  13. Dear Reshma,

    I wish i had left a little space empty on my truck to load more of PSL. Unfortunately I had already loaded up to the hilt before the fall came.

    Now all that I am doing is trying to fill the front cabin too. So basically adding a couple of 100 shares of PSL now and then and slowly increasing my holding.

    Many a times the patience of an investor is tested to its limit and those who are strong in their conviction end up making lots of money.

    I just hope my patience in PSL pays off in the long run.

    I think Rajeev sir is the best to point out the future of PSL as he has the vision of a night hawk. He can see far ahead than what we can do and thats been his secret to wonderful stock picks and recommendations.

  14. Hi Rajeev,

    Can you share your views on SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd. Isn't it value buy at this level.


  15. Hi Rajeev

    Any idea as to why Aries Agro had such a bad fall today?



  16. Om,
    It looks that even after I didn't advice to buy in past when either yourself or someone else asked me about SEL Mfg Ltd , you have bought it.
    See, when I discussed it here it was 80 and then it came down to 55 and still readers were asking me about my opinion and I wrote each time that this is a vey speculative stock so don't buy.
    Now OM, some times it looks like you miss the finer print to read.
    The eq of SEL Mfg has gone up from 19.06 cr in sep09 to 30.36 cr in Dec 09 to 60.36 cr in June '10 to 99.35 cr in Sep'10.

    Means the eq has gone up from 19 cr in last sep'09 to 99.35 cr this sep'10...that is a 5 fold increase in eq and the NP has remained stagnant so the eps has come down.
    There is no guarentee that further eq will not be blotted and there is neither guarentee that NP will also remain same and hence just couple of bad years or couple of bad qr and bottomline will be heavily affected.
    I will not buy SEL MFG even at Rs 23.Maybe in ST it can go up around 30-40 but I will not put hand on it.

  17. Hi Rajeevji, how are you, thanks for your update on Punj but for the couple of days it seems it mayhem for Parekh aluminex from 600/- odd it has come down till 329/- in just 3-4 session, i went to the mmb and is related with some ghotala on this stock raising the price high by some of the brokers... well again I am positive on this and will take it as on opportunity to buy... after reading all your messages Rajeevji I know the importance of being positive... :-) , Hey Mitzzzzzz you too are great with your findings and editorial I have read some of your inputs on mmb and they look great too.... and by god grace PSL will run to get all your dreams true...but hey when that time comes start throwing some PSL shares from your truck enroute your journey...hahah... just kidding......

    Rajeevji, Mitzzz (sorry If i forgot to add some more Z's)..... all the best and you guys take good care of yourself... by the way SNL bearing has started rocking.... from 32 to 48 today... :-)

    very warm regards

  18. Reshma/Mitz,
    Well in PSL it looks like the debt has gone up and hence you can see that the Int charges has gone up in sep qr from 23 cr to 33 cr last year.That clearly shows that debt has risen but then they had expanded the capacity as well and new capacity has been added at various strategic places like Mahudi in Gujarat.
    The topline has grown from 633 cr to 700 cr then last year and that shows 10% increase from last year.
    Now at 33 cr Int outgo, it means 10 cr Int has increased which is over 2 eps every qr.If they can trim down the Int and sales increases then bottomline will automatically go up.
    If PSL becomes a zero debt Co then eps would be 15 every qr.
    Still , with topline for last year at Rs 2810 and Mcap at 500 cr it is still going cheap, as if we put the same parameters I gave for a buy call on Gayatri Project at 160, Apar Ind at 140 or Surya Roshni at 34 and many more then PSL is still going cheap at 1:5 ratio for Mcap and sales and that is huge value according to me.Like I say, a 2800 cr Co is available for just 500 cr...Wow!
    Moreover due to capacity expansion the depreciation has also gone up.That is also a positive for the Co.
    Market do not like debts and hence the thumbs down.

  19. Thanks a lot Rajeev for your valuable views on SEL... Ya I was tracking the past comments from you and that's why was waiting for right time, but now as you said it's better to add more in any of your's recos..PSL, Vishnu, Rathi, HBL, Nutek...etc.


  20. Hi Rajeev,
    Need you valuable suggestion.
    I have Parekh Aluminex @ 136.Bought 1 yr. back.
    I have already sold 50% of stocks once the stock doubled.
    Now the stock is in continuous LC since 4 days as SEBI has banned activities of Dangi Gr.
    Whats your opinion for long-term?
    With Regards,

  21. hi rajeevji,

    thanks for your valuable inputs

    can you kindly update your recommendations(scrip names) on the side bar so that new comers to the blog can get it easily


  22. Dear Rajeev Sir,
    Thanks for your detailed explanation of PSL.

    There is one more negative in the short term and that is the order flow. PSL has had the worst year perhaps in terms of order flows. Even their state of art US plant has had no orders for the last three-four months now.

    And one unfactored positive is their 250 acre land holding in Gujarat. I do not know the exact value of it though. I have tried to source information regarding its value but to no avail.

    However the biggest move for PSL will be in the next five years when the CGD starts to roll out. 200 cities are planned to be covered by 2015. So lets see where it goes from hereon.

    Reshma ... Too many ZZZZZZ's and I will go to sleep. LOL. Jokes apart I have learnt my lessons. Infact I am slowly learning the tricks to making money from the last 8 years. However going by last years performance I still have a long way to go.

    On my journey I will offload a bit of PSL for sure. It is one important lesson that I learnt that fundamentals alone do not dictate the price of a stock in the short term.

    One more stock that I am adding in this downfall is BILCARE. A very interesting co in a very interesting and promising sector.

    I am sure Rajeev sir will have more info on this than what I can provide.