I WISH A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY READERS...
Friends,
I am today comparing the run of Sujana Towers and VIP Ind.Why it happened that though VIP Ind low was Rs.31 in Mar 2009 and Sujana Towers low was Rs 12 and VIP high was Rs 776 and Sujana Towers high was 230....still Sujana Towers is under SEBI scanner and why VIP is not in SEBI scanner?
Isn't that an anamoly that VIP which gave 25 times return is not catching SEBI's eye and Sujana Towers gave 20 times return which is even less RETURN then VIP Ind in same period then why Sujana Towers is getting all brickbets and why not VIP Ind?Both took same period of time but one is under SEBI scanner and one is not!
Well, I have been writing here time and again lately that no stock can move without operator(which are known as market maker in SEBI language) except A gr stocks which is also possible with F&O coming in play as well but that is a big game.
So it is now clear that VIP Ind and Sujana Towers were under operation by a market maker.But to me the operator in Sujana Towers was immature and that of VIP Ind was mature.Sujana Towers price discoverer showed that he is novice in operating stocks while VIP Ind market maker proved that he is a seasoned player.
Sujana Towers went from Rs.62 on sep 21 st to Rs.220 on 25th Nov ..means in 2 months Sujana Towers went from 62 to 220 giving a whopping return of almost 400% or 4 times return.Now was there any hurry to run Sujana Towers so fast so soon?Why it was not operated like the way VIP Ind went up so that SEBI has no problem with it?
That is what the new school of operators needs to learn from seasoned or veteran operators.Why Sujana Towers kept dorment for months togather and start moving up from Sep10?When Sujana Towers was at 12 in Mar 09 it just went to 62 in Sep 10 ?If Sujana Towers had moved from 12 to maybe 80-100 by sep 10 , which would have been a normal case and then 230 by Nov 10 then there would have no problem but when one see a run like Sujana Towers like that it is bound to be under SEBI Scanner.......
So the message here from my blog to the operator or market maker or price discoveror is move a stock in such a way that your name do not come in bad books of SEBI and that is the trick........
VIP moving from 32 to 776 in 18 months didn't make waves because it was moved in such a fashion that doesn't look abnormal but Sujana Towers moving pattern looked abnormal.
Hope some operator read this and take a clue and do the things in such a way that he doesn't come under SEBI scanner.........or under our learned and always on prowl journalist, Sucheta Dalal....LOL.....
Running a stock or operating a stock is an ART and new breeds needs to learn it observing veteran players.It is a very clear case that both VIP Ind and Sujana Towers were operated as both gave phenominal returns in same period of time and like wise there are many examples like that....which can elaborated.I just picked these two.....
Again I repeat, let market maker know that don't keep stocks on same level for longer period and then suddenly start it run and that too many folds, if you will do that way you are bound to be under SEBI scanner......if any stocks needs to run 10 times in a year due to any story coming up or NP going up exponentially and hence rerating going to happen, start the operation well ahead of time ....don't make it run and give 10 times return in 4-6 months........instead make it sure that in whole year the return is 10 times and not in 4-6 months..........don't keep the stock dorment for months togather.........
One more thing that has come to my mind and am writing here is,"Circular Trading", One of my friend told me that Sujana Towers must have come under survelliance system of circular trading and VIP Ind must have not.For that I have to say is, it is not possible for even VIP Ind to go from 32 to 776 without circular trading.So now then what needs to be done?
Well, when circular trading is done, it should look like buying stocks and not trading.It means that there shouldn't be any day trading or trading within a week......under no circumstances it should looked like circular trading and ramping up the price.......It is very clear that whoever took the operation of VIP Ind took great care not to come under SEBI net.....Learn..learn....learn.....learn from the mistakes.......
The defination of circular trading is, one guy buy a stock and other sells it .Both are sitting in different office with different terminal.And then may be next day again the guy who bought sells again to same guy who sold him previous day.......but as it is a circular trading the timing of when the guy who will sell is predetermined so that other guy will also sit at the same time and as soon as the sell orders come from that guy , he will buy immidiately.......otherwise what happens you know?The price will crash with such a huge selling if that guy who is suppose to buy is not sitting there at that time.......
Hi Rajeev Bhai,
ReplyDeleteWish you a happy and prosperous new year.
You are great in all sense. I like the way you are educating us about Indian Stock Market. I was totally unaware that operator also play a major role in taking a stock to new high.
Now I have a query. What strategy we should follow while investing in stock for long term?
I was doing SIP(systematic investment) in the stocks you have recommended here.So now I have around 100 stocks in my portfolio. Some are doing good and some in negative.Over all I am in minimal profit(due to the recent correction). I think one should buy (in one go) when you have recommended a stock and not in SIP.
For example : JAMNA Auto. It was recommended by you around 85. I have purchased it at 85, 100, 120, 140 now it is at 140. I am in profit but don't you think we should purchase in one go or
Should we add more only when a stock goes down from our average purchase price for example RICO Auto.
On diwali you have recommended (SREI,Ennore,Vishnu Chem). Are you adding new to the list or we should add more of the above.
Keep writing and educating us.
with regards
Pratap
Dear Rajeev-Nakul,
ReplyDeleteI wish you a GREAT YEAR 2011, and great returns to you and the investor community visiting your blog.
Here is a Zen story specially in response to your excellent post above on Operators.
"Teacups"
A student asked Suzuki Roshi why the Japanese make their teacups so thin and delicate that they break easily. "It's not that they're too delicate," he answered, "but that you don't know how to handle them. You must adjust yourself to the environment, and not vice versa."
Your post on Operators and Harshad Mehta are great for they present the reality and the environment AS IT IS, and THE REALITY AND ENVIRONMENT WE MUST ADAPT TO.
To the WONDERFUL REALIST in you and to the
entire Blog Community I wish a Happy New Year and a better understanding of Reality and Environment in which we invest.
Kalyanmitta
Hi Jaideep,
ReplyDeleteWell, buying in SIP manner is always good because if the stock comes down we can buy more.But buying on declines is always not a good idea because we never know what the bottom is and hence I always advocate to buy upwards.
It is very hard to make out whether the stock will go up or down and hence best thing is buy 50% and then buy more as one wish.
It also depends on fundamentals of the stocks.If the stock was up on momentum and has streched valuation in runup then on any correction it can come down,but if the fundamentals are strong even if has come down it will go up......