I again got a request from my ardent follower and reader mr OM that bottom is near and I need to hurry up for giving my list of probables stocks which needs to be looked upon.
I feel that , every reader is eager to read my picks and hence I feel that I need to write what I am thinking of the market and hence giving a reply here on front page.:
I do not boast that I am good or a champion nor I feel I am good enough to see where the market is going but whatever I read and understand , I am putting it here.
I appreciate your( all my readers) faith you have put on me and I promise that I will never do anything purposefully to misguide you all which I have been doing since the inception of this blog.I have stick to being honest and fair at any jucture of market or for that matter any time I have written anything on any subject....
Here is my reply:
Have faith in me.Market is not going to runaway.
It has a long to go for going up.
Congress has tabled the food subsidy bill for poor and that is as big as 1 lac cr and that will not be easy to digest by the market when fiscal deficit is going up.
We are not on a firm footing at all.
It is all gimmicks by Congress and they have kept CBI out of perview of Lokpal and that makes no sense according to me as I agree with the Anna Hazare team.
There are other clauses in bill tabled by Congress which are debatable.Congress is trying to divide and rule.I hope u understand what I am trying to say here.
With all these issues goling on , it is obvious that economics progress will be on back burner and in that case our GDP will take a beating and it can lower to 6 or even 5%.
Real Estate property scenario is not at all looking good and flats and commercial construction like offices etc are lying unsold and that is taking toll on Real Estate Cos and hence there is a huge danger of NPA's for bank and when such things happens , we have a problem like USA, where the banking sector is in danger as the NPA's will increase and bank will have to bear the brunt and Banks will have to make provision for NPA's which will be in huge amt.....
I read somewhere that RJ is selling his stake of 37% in Aptech for 600 cr through auction and that shows that RJ is also in need of the money.That says everything..........
Don't be in panic to buy anything.I maybe wrong but that is what I am seeing....Market will give ample time to buy.Shankar Sharma has said many times that Ril Ind fair value is at 500-550 and L&T fair value is 700-750 and that will come and may even go down more then that.
If infaltion is not tamed, if rate cut do not happen, if IIP will have a negative growth , if economics reforms are taking back seat then how market will go up, I don't understand?
With the Anna Hazare movement going to take a big place , as Congress has kept CBI out of Lokpal, I see how Congress would think anything other then that......
Wait for the first rate cut.When RBI decides to cut back the rate to stimulate the growth.
The first rate cut will be of only .25 point basis and it will take many months for those rate coming back to what we saw 1 yr back .Each and every time there will be a 25 basis rate cut which will very slowly increase the liquidity in our system and hence I feel that even if rate cut happens in January 2012, still it will be a long way to go.
Don't get deceived if market goes up in morning trade........it can come down heavily at the end.....
Rest all LUCK.......