Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Market making new lows............

Dear Friends,
It is all same.We say, market making new lows or market making lower Top......lol
That makes same meaning.
I have already written that 3900 is in offing and it looks like it will come.Untill inflation don't come down, untill Int rate do not get cut again,untill IIP nos start coming good , I feel that we are not going to see any good time in our market and that is why I feel that 3900 will come and untill it do not come, all rally should be considered as a relief rally or shortcovering.In bear market , all down targets gets achieved because everyone wants to sell and save money and hence all lower targets gets achieved.
Our market going down is now on reason which has come on surface domestically.The inflation,rate cut,Manufacturing slow down, Real Estate problem, etc etcEven the reason of EU has found some respite and still our market is going down which says that the problem is domestic and not global for our market.
FII has lost confidence in our economy and with rupee becoming cheaper against dollar which made a high of 53.70 against dollar, our import bills are soaring high.Fiscal deficit is going wayward, we are not able to control it.Even though in real terms as read by me, it should be 70 against dollar if we are still good but if India is growing then we need to see rupee much stronger.
If USA is doing bad, if EU are doing bad, if West is doing bad, then why rupee is falling.Which economics learning says so?Is there something we don't understand why rupee is falling so badly?Is government doing it purposefully ?
And then the scams.
Well, friends this will passon and happy days will come but we will have to pass through the pain and that is a part of market.
I have completed reading "Confessions of a Wall Street Insider" by C C Hazard as written in one of my post titled " The Luck Factor" by M C Gunther.
That is an excellent book written around 1970's and it is worth reading.It shows all  insideout and how things are manouvered in stock market.It exposed all term, fundamentals, Technicals,good management, sales and all.
I use to read books and I like reading books on various subjects and I can read them sitting hours togather.One may call me a voracious reader. Someone wrote" Books are your real friends" and looks like it is true.Books are your really your real friends.I was an avid reader and looks like my habit of reading books I have got it back, for whatever reason.
Reading makes you think.It makes you think what is right and what is wrong.Reading expands ones horizen of thinking.One learns something while reading.Reading is knowledge and knowledge is power.It pays somewhere.Reading shows us the way of reasoning.
Coming back to the market, I feel that more downside is left and untill RBI don't start cutting rate back, we are not going to see market making a comeback soon.
There are no fundamentals......nothing like funda ka mental........it is market and that's it.
All due diligence , all knowing what Co is doing, how is the management, sales, profit, CARG, RONW everything goes haywire when market starts going down.
I somewhere read that 60% of 21k is 12600 and so that will be a great support to look at.
When market went down in 2008, we touched 8000 and that is 40% of 21k .So either it is 60% of 21k , i.e is 12600 or we take out 12600 from 21k and that is 7400 or 8k, no one knows.
But if global situation stabilizes and our politicians start thinking of our country and start doing on that front our market will start making a comeback.
That is why I always use to write, invest those money which you will not need for 5 yrs.Don't borrow.
Make sure one have enough money to run the house.It is true for business as well.Before taking any advances or loans , which we call it a DEBT, make sure you will be able to pay Interest every month.Make sure your business is such that you have no problem in doing so.Paying Int should not become such a big issue that you have no money left to run your house. It should never happen that one have to borrow to pay interest and if that happens then it is not a good thinking or one can say you have erred and you are not a good businessman .That is the worst case scenario.That should never happen.It is a simple rule that don't try to stretch your leg so long that it goes out of your bedsheet.Jitni chaddar hai utna hi pair bahar nikaliye.That is the bottomline.Taking a calculative risk is good but at the same time one should  be also able to return back once understood that you have make a mistake.Any steps which rectify your mistake is always a good step taken.Nothing wrong to confess anything done wrong.Don't be adamant.Don't become stubborn.
Learn to accept.Learn to accept mistakes.That will go long way in your life.Will bring peace of mind as well.
One should be able to sleep soundly at night.At the end of the day nothing should huant us.Nothing should make us feel guilty.Listen to your heart.
I have written umpteen times, it is not easy to make money in stock market.See how much it is coming true.For all investors these is a lesson one should be learning.
Be on the sidelines.Don't average or buy anything now.That is what I feel.One may take their own decision.

1 comment:

  1. Dear Sir , US already recovered 3%,we will bounce too in coming week.
    Some analysis says , we wont go below 15000.
    Hence its better to invest some amount at these levels, before we bounce. Hence request you to please provide the list of picks for 2012,that can be accumulated at this cheap level.