India To Launch $35B Of Public Investments...........

BY JAMES LAMONT / FT.COM
The emergency stimulus measures are in response to widespread criticism of policy paralysis & fall in economic growth.

India is to launch a $35bn wave of public sector investment to reverse a decline in the fast-growing economy’s growth rate and return it closer to double digits, according to the prime minister’s office.

The emergency stimulus measures are in response to widespread criticism of policy paralysis in New Delhi and a dramatic fall in economic growth to 7 per cent from an earlier 9 per cent.
The government of Manmohan Singh has ordered 17 state-owned companies to use money currently held in reserve to invest in a mixture of infrastructure projects and overseas energy purchases.
“They are sitting on piles of cash,” said one official of the urgent need to trigger a mobilisation of currently “inactive” resources to boost confidence in the economy, and promote India’s energy security.
The move is also an attempt to prompt private-sector companies – which have expressed reservations about investing in the domestic market – to follow suit. But some observers have criticised the move as a throwback to the “old formula” of the 1970s when then prime minister Indira Gandhi used public infrastructure spending to boost growth.
India’s top policymakers are worried about the economy’s loss of momentum, and ebbing business confidence after a dismal year characterised by political bickering, high profile corruption scandals and an exit of foreign capital.
Companies, such as the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Coal India and the National Mineral Development Corporation, have signed agreements to spend as much as $35bn of their cash or bank balances over the fiscal year starting in April to expand their operations.
The sum is almost twice the $19bn foreign direct investment into India in 2011.
Among the proposed measures, Coal India, which had a successful initial public offering last year has been asked to “actively consider investment” in allied sectors such as road, railways, waterways and power to improve the transport of coal. Bharat Electronics Limited, a state-owned defence company, is considering a buy-back of equity to utilise its surplus resources.
Fast-tracked investments, mainly in the coal and oil sectors, will be monitored quarterly by Mr Singh’s own office to prevent backsliding.
Of the total, Rs400bn ($7bn) has been identified for investments overseas to buy assets like coal, gas and oil. ONGC has undertaken to spend Rs205bn in foreign investment in the coming fiscal year; Coal India has agreed to Rs60b.
The move by the Singh administration also reflects India’s determination to push for higher growth in spite of uncertainty surrounding the global economic recovery and renewed anxiety about the performance of eurozone economies.
Senior officials acknowledge that conservatism has gripped the public sector as officials fear repercussions of their decisions – as a result they have been sitting on cash piles and earning high interest rates – should they end in controversy or failure. The result is that they are not leveraging their resources to pursue faster growth.
At the same time, corruption scandals, notably in the fast-growing telecoms sector, have widened the distance between the bureaucracy and private sector as top officials fear the spread of “crony capitalism”.
The outlook for India’s economy is clouded by policy inaction, a deteriorating fiscal situation, weak balance of payments and an economic slowdown, say many economists.
“The domestic economy deserves a push that can be provided by the government,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Mumbai-based Care Ratings.
”The focus will be on project expenditure this time to provide a boost to the infrastructure sector.”
The decision to boost investments by the public sector was taken at a meeting earlier this month between 26 heads of utilities and the prime minister’s office.
“Public sector investment can provide stimulus to the economy,” said an official summary of the meeting.
Companies which hold significant cash and bank balances draw up credible investment programmes, and implement them with vigour.”

A dollar at Rs 32? Big Mac says so, but don’t count on it..........

By R Jagannathan

If The Economist is to be believed, the India rupee is the most undervalued currency in the world. If that’s the case, why are foreigners avoiding it like the plague? Either the index is wrong or the foreigners don’t know what they are doing.
In its latest version of the Big Mac Index, a spurious index based on the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac in various countries, the rupee is 61 percent undervalued since Big Macs (or the Indian equivalent, since they don’t sell the real Big Mac here) cost that much less here.
If this undervaluation figure is right, the rupee should be quoted realistically around Rs 32 right now when it is actually at Rs 51 to the US dollar.
The Big Mac index is based on the concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) – the purchase cost of the same item in different countries. If a given loaf of bread costs 25 cents in India and $2 in the US, a $1 income in India is worth $8 in the US, assuming one only has to buy bread.


In the Big Mac Index, a spurious index based on the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac in various countries, the rupee is 61 percent undervalued. AFP
The Economist carries this PPP analogy and uses the price of the Big Mac in various countries to check if currencies are undervalued or overvalued. Thus, if an item costs $10 in the US, and $5 in China and $1 in India, the Chinese currency is undervalued by 50 percent and the Indian one by 90 percent.
In the latest computation of the Big Mac Index published by The Economist, the Big Mac costs $4.2 in the US and $1.62 in India – making the latter 61.5 percent cheaper than the US. Ergo: the rupee is undervalued to the same extent.
Similarly, the Chinese Big Mac is worth $2.44, which is 42 percent lower than the US price. So, by definition, US trade warriors feel vindicated in their belief that China is using a weak yuan policy to export to the US.
The Swiss franc is the most overvalued currency, since the Big Mac costs $6.81 in Switzerland. That’s 62 percent overvaluation. India’s black money wizards should avoid eating too many Big Macs in Switzerland when they are depositing their ill-gotten wealth in that country.
But the Big Mac Index has come under serious criticism from economists who say that the raw PPP index needs to be at least adjusted for relative costs. When labour costs in China and India are so much below American costs, prices will reflect this reality.
In the 30 July edition, therefore, The Economist adjusted raw Big Mac prices with the country’s per capita income, and came up with completely different interpretations.
Once deflated by lower average country incomes, the Big Mac Index shows more realistic currency values. Thus, against an undervaluation of 53 percent in July this year, the adjusted index for India showed a rupee undervaluation of only 8 percent.
On 30 July, the Big Mac (which is chicken based in India against beef elsewhere) cost Rs 84 ($1.89 in terms of the dollar values then). Today, after the rupee depreciation, it is $1.62.
Since July, the rupee has actually depreciated by another 15-20 percent in nominal terms. This means the gross undervaluation must be in the region of 20-25 percent.
However, this does not tally well with the Reserve Bank’s real effective exchange rate (REER) for the rupee – a measure of how exchange rates have moved against a basket of currencies weighted by trade and adjusted for relative inflation.
Given how the rupee has moved against the US dollar and other currencies, and also given our higher rate of inflation, the Reserve Bank says that the rupee’s REER is now just 3.13 percent more (as of December 2011) than what it was in 2004-05. This means the rupee has appreciated by this small percentage in REER terms in the last seven years in real terms.
The Big Mac Index would suggest that the rupee need to appreciate another 20-25 percent to reach its ideal value.
The bottomline is this: there is no real value that one can safely assign to any currency. While fundamentals like inflation and trade deficits matter – capital flows can make all the difference.
The rupee’s real value is what the market is willing to pay for it at any point of time. As we noted recently, it will have a rough ride, never mind what the Big Mac says.


The link:
 
http://www.firstpost.com/economy/a-dollar-at-rs-32-big-mac-says-so-but-dont-count-on-it-184991.html?utm_source=MC_TOP_WIDGE


My Commnets:

After reading the above article, I can say that Rupee is hammered or let battered delibaretly for reason best known to RBI and Politicians.
Even though the auther says don't count on it,still Rupee needs to appreciate by 25%  and that is around 40 against dollar.

Flip side of Flipkart: Red Ink for e-tailers, RIP book shops...........

Jan 17, 2012
By Binoo K. JohnThe other reason is the huge price slash in books (a minimum of 25 percent) if you order them through portals like flipkart.com, or infibeam.com or makemeread.com. (Disclaimer: This writer has a stake in makemeread.com)

In times of recession and decline of the old order, obit writers get furiously busy, putting up the right epitaphs, analysing the causes of the big fall and blaming the universal forces that shut out another old tradition. In this group of threatened oldies is the indie bookshop which has been on the hit-list for over two years now.


So when another book shop decides to close down, in this case, Pune’s 63-year-old Manney’s (Read more here), it is a sign that the time of reckoning is almost here. Manik Mani, the owner, says the decision to close down has nothing to do with sales but that he is tired and needs a break and his daughter is not old enough to take over.


Beneath all this it is quite clear that sales would have been dropping at Manney’s just as it has been at other book shops across the country and around the world. In New Delhi, the well-known shops to have closed down are Bookworm (Connaught Place), Oxford Book shop (Connaught Place) and Book Shop (Khan Market), apart from other smaller shops.


Many such shops will put up a brave face and hold on for some more time but in another two years, book shops operating in premium markets in cities would have all closed down. Or they may remain open only by losing money. The primary reason is that rentals in prime areas will be much more than the profits made from sales of books and stationery, making it more profitable for the shop owner to rent out the space.






How does it work? How can portals discount prices to such an extent without bursting their own bottomlines or net income? How long will internet book sales boom?


Though book sales are shifting drastically to internet portals, the fact is that most portals sell books for a loss or without profit. For example, on flipkart.com, the price of Poor Economics: Rethinking Poverty and the way to end it, by Abhijit Banerjee and Ester Duflo, sells for Rs 321, an unimaginable discount of Rs 175 on the actual cost price of Rs 499 which you would have had to pay if you bought the book at Manney’s.

The reason why Manney’s has to close down can be clearly seen here.


What many people do is go to shops like Manney’s, which they have been frequenting for a long time, note down the new books, go home and order it from any of the portals. For some time now Manik Mani would have wondered why his favourite customers are not picking up anything. His shop would have become a place to browse and select, a sort of brick-and-mortal search engine for the buyer. He unknowingly offers that service free, because unlike earlier, even the ardent book lover is not going to buy much from him since he has a much cheaper option.


Yes, Manik can order some old books for you and tell you when Thomas Mann’s Magic Mountain Everyman Library edition will be available in his shop. By that time it will be available on internet book shops as well.
How does it work for Infibeam or Flipkart and Rediff or the Indiatimes store and other start ups?


Flipkart gets Poor Economics at a 35-40 percent discount from the distributors, just like Manik. Prakash Books, which is the north Indian distributor of Penguin India, will be getting all books at a 50 percent discount from Penguin or other publishers and will be passing down 10-20 percent to the retailer.


Here’s the flip side. Retailers take a 25 percent profit on sales while Flipkart or Infibeam pass them on to the customer since there is no rental or warehousing cost.


It is not that simple, though. Once you grow big like Flipkart of Infibeam, warehousing is a must. Also, staff costs go up. Since customers are not charged for delivery within India, Flipkart and Infibeam finally end up losing money on each book they sell. When Flipkart sells one copy of Poor Economics, they will be poorer by Rs 30 at least, according to this author’s calculation.


Internet stores don’t make money on book sales. Then what are they looking for?


What the big internet retailers are interested in is a big database of internet buyers who, in the future, can be targeted for various marketing strategies. An internet portal’s primary worth or valuation depends on how many customers it has and only secondly the turnover.

That is also the reason why once they get a database of half a million they will have to turn to selling electronic items on which profits are better. If they lose Rs 30 on selling one copy of Poor Economics how much will their daily losses be? How long can this be sustained?


Flipkart has enough cash reserves as of now. But if they do not get a good valuation and a buyer in the next two years, the portal will be in trouble. Its spends on multi-media advertising must also be hugely adding to its burden.


This is also the inherent drawback in taking huge venture funding. Venture capitalists are on the lookout for valuations, not sales or proper delivery of books. Nor, in this case, are they interested in the spread of the reading habit in India.


To deliver a book of less than 500 gm from Delhi to Kolkata will cost at least Rs 30 for Flipkart or Infibeam through an Indian courier company.


To cut down on costs, Flipkart has hired its own distributing staff and set up its own logistics company. When Chetan Bhagat’s new book was launched, Flipkart hired 700 personnel for distributing his books across India, according to Bhagat himself. In the long run, this is going to hurt terribly. Having your own delivery personnel will help if you are selling goods at a profit and not at a loss, as in the case of books. By present reckoning, Flipkart will have to make up for the loss in book sales by selling electronic goods and other products to which the emphasis will have to shift as the number of internet buyers swell.

So while Chetan Bhagat’s laughed his way to the bank, Flipkart must be thinking of the next venture capitalist. In other words, it is not profitable to run a virtual book shop unless you get a huge valuation and then exit as fast as possible. In this case, the book seller must be hoping that amazon.com – or someone else – will buy them out at a big valuation. But nothing of that sort has happened so far. Also, the sales figures do not match valuation expectations.

Buffett to Republicans: if you pay, so will I..............

WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - Warren Buffett is willing to put his money where his mouth is, if only congressional Republicans would join him.



The American billionaire investor, in the new issue of Time magazine, says he would donate $1 to paying down the national debt for every dollar donated by a Republican in Congress. The only exception is Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell - for whom Buffett said he would go $3-to-$1.


The idea stems from a New York Times opinion piece Buffett wrote last August in which he said the rich ought to pay more taxes. It sparked an instant controversy, with some Washington conservatives calling on the 81-year-old "Oracle of Omaha" to voluntarily pay extra.


McConnell said at the time that if Buffett felt "guilty" about paying too low a tax rate, he should "send in a check." This was quickly followed by introduction of a bill to give taxpayers an option on tax forms to make voluntary donations.


"It restores my faith in human nature to think that there are people who have been around Washington all this time and are not yet so cynical as to think that can't be solved by voluntary contributions," the Buffett told Time for an article hitting newsstands on Friday.



An aide to McConnell suggested that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO should expand his matching offer to President Barack Obama and his Democrats.


"Senator McConnell says that Washington should be smaller, rather than taxes getting bigger. And since some, like President Obama and Mr. Buffett want to pay higher taxes, Congress made it possible for them to call their own bluff and send in a check," said Don Stewart, McConnell's deputy chief of staff.


"So I look forward to Mr. Buffett matching a healthy batch of checks from those who actually want to pay higher taxes, including Congressional Democrats, the President and the Democratic National Committee," he added.


The jabs over voluntary payments come as higher taxes for the wealthy and extension of payroll tax breaks for middle-class Americans are becoming increasingly contentious issues for the 2012 presidential race. Obama is trying to paint Republicans as only favoring the wealthy, while Republicans are trying to brand the president as relying on tax hikes to fund excessive spending.


Buffett said in the Time interview the United States needed a tax system that favored people who were not born investors.


"We need a tax system that takes very good care of people who just really aren't as well adapted to the market system, and to capitalism, but are nevertheless just as good citizens, and are doing things that are of use in society," he said.



Buffett, who has raised money for President Barack Obama recently, also takes swings at Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in the Time interview, criticizing Gingrich's track record and Romney's ties to the private equity business.


(Reporting By Ben Berkowitz and David Lawder; Editing by Eric Walsh)

Orchid Chemicals gets $1.5 m milestone payment from Merck....

Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals has received initial USD 1.5 million in milestone payments from Merck & Co as its research programme with the pharma major for anti-infection drugs has completed a pre-clinical milestone.



Orchid and Merck had in 2008 entered into an agreement to focus on discovery, development and commercialisation of new medicines to treat bacterial and fungal infections.


As per the agreement, Orchid Chemicals is eligible to receive payments over USD 100 million upon reaching various research and development milestones. It will also receive significant royalties on worldwide net sales of any products commercialized under the agreement.


Orchid Chemicals had said on Monday that it received approval from banks to raise USD 100 million via external commercial borrowings [ECB] for redeeming USD 117 million of foreign currency convertible bonds [FCCB] due in February 2012.


Orchid Chemicals shares were trading up over 6% at Rs 132.25 on NSE in noon trade.
 
Link for the article:
 
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/orchid-chemicals-gets-3615-m-milestone-paymentmerck_636329.html?utm_source=executive-briefing

Investors, the bumpy ride to Sensex 60,000 begins this year............

Looking at the behaviour of the domestic stock markets, and the success of fixed-rate issues like the tax-free bonds of the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI, which was a super sellout), it is easy to conclude that investors have become even more risk-averse than before.



True, but they are being so at their own risk.


The fact is, despite the current policy paralysis and general air of pessimism surrounding the India story, the medium-to-slightly longish term (5-7 years) future of Indian stocks has never been better.


In fact, in an earlier article, I had predicted that the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex will easily hit 60,000 by 2018-20. I would like to give further evidence of the same. Let’s start with the US markets.


A recent article by Floyd Norris in The New York Times suggests that the US markets have entered a period of low growth. If the 1984-1999 period saw the S&P 500 giving a real annual return (after inflation) of over 15 percent, in the last 15 years, this is down to 3 percent. It seems the cycle starts reversing once returns top 15 percent.

Punit Paranjpe/Reuters


Says Norris: “Broadly, it appears there is a cycle that is repeating itself, in which the 15-year return tops out at more than 15 percent and then falls precipitately.”


It was the rising cycle that made investors like Warren Buffett stand out as super-achievers in the past. In a falling cycle, they won’t.


If the 15-year cycle observation holds true, what is the possibility that long-term investors will stay invested in US stocks when there are better pickings elsewhere? Especially India, where the market has fallen 23-25 percent in the year to date?


The second point relates to the dollar-rupee rate. Thanks to market pessimism, the rupee has been the worst-performing currency in the emerging markets, and has fallen 19 percent against the US dollar in 2011. The logical explanation for this is that India’s current account deficit (CAD, which is over 3 percent) and inflation rates are bad – hence the currency depreciation. But as Abheek Barua and Shivom Chakravarti point out in Business Standard, Turkey’s CAD is over 10 percent but the Turkish lira fell only marginally last year.


Clearly, the gloom in India is overdone – and the rupee will rebound this year. At the cusp of that sentiment change, foreign investors will start piling in to take double advantage – of a strengthening rupee and a rising market. The two go together.


Let’s also not forget that while the rupee is weak, domestic manufacturers get better protection, exports become more competitive, and high exchange earners get windfall profits in terms of unearned foreign exchange gains. The losers are the ones with high debts designated in dollars. If you pick companies playing in the domestic markets, with low dollar exposures, and/or high export capabilities, you have a winning portfolio on hand.


Third, there’s the interest rate cycle. Everyone and his aunt has been saying that the interest rate cycle has peaked, and the question is no longer whether the Reserve Bank will reverse its tight money policy, or cut rates, but when.


While some say the rate cut cycle could begin as early as January, even if this is postponed to March, the fact is no further increases are possible anymore.


Stock market valuations and interest rates are inversely related. If rates have peaked, stocks should be bottoming out, too. While no one can say when the actual bottoming out will occur, it is a safe bet that 2012 is probably the year. Investors, take note.


The fourth point is inflation. An elevated average inflation rate is going to be the lasting legacy of UPA’s profligacy (with NREGA and Food Security being the important wage-price spiral boosters, and fiscal looseness, necessitated by the need for greater subsidies, being the other key inflationary factor).


This means we are going to see 7-10 percent inflation for the next two or three years, and possibly slightly lower inflation after that.


When inflation rises, the rupee value of corporate profits rises as prices adjust for inflation. If the big index companies grow at 15 percent in real terms over the next six years, and inflation is at 10 percent in the next three, and five percent after that, stock prices have to rise 25 percent over the next three years and 20 percent over the years after that just to compensate.


Whatever happens, inflation itself should call for a stock price correction to Sensex levels of 50,000-60,000 over the next six years.


This is not to say that the index will not fall to 12,000 in the short run. But in the medium term there is no way we are going to lose out by investing in stocks.


In fact, if the US is going to have a 15-year downcycle, India should correspondingly have an upcycle. The upcycle that began in 2003 will last us at least till 2020.


A caveat to investors: this is not an invitation to take extraordinary risks. Every investor should stick to her or his asset allocation. If your ratio is 50:50 for risk investments and safe avenues (as mine is), stick to it. Don’t raise your equity investment to 75 percent of the portfolio.


However, it is worth remembering that at 8.2-8.3 percent, even the tax-free NHAI bonds yield a negative return after inflation. In the next few years, the biggest risk we face is our inability to take risks.


The ride will be bumpy, but by 2018, you will be sitting pretty.


Link for this article:

http://www.firstpost.com/investing/investors-the-bumpy-ride-to-sensex-60000-begins-this-year-176052.html?utm_source=MC_MAIL

India beats China, factory activity jumps to 54.2 in Dec; highest since June

http://www.firstpost.com/business/india-beats-china-factory-activity-jumps-to-54-2-in-dec-highest-since-june-169821.html

This is the link.Open and read it.

Manufacturing jumps over 50% in Dec defying IIP nos.
That is a good sign.The domestic as well as overseas demand has gone up and orders are pouring in.
Now the order of the day is some steps from RBI and government and we will be back in reckoning.
I read that Shankar Sharma has become super bullish in one of his interview in ET.
I still feel that 3900-4000 can come.It will take time for our market to make a comeback as Dec ending ,3rd qr, results are due this month and that are not going to be great with Int rate high.
Market will react on that and that is why I feel that we can see somemore downside before a Bull Market starts again.
Moreover , players will try to take the stocks more down for more distress selling from the weak hands and will try and acculamalte as much good stocks as possible.
This is not the time to sell.Stocks can still go down but then we never know the exact bottom.It can be 4200/4100/4000 or even 3900 or even 3800.
But after budget , things should look up as I feel Pranab Roy will come out with some good  measures which will help our economy.
Government has opened up direct investment in stocks from foreign investor without taking a route of MF.Now an individual investor will able to invest in Indian market directly in Indian stock market.If FDI on retial will get passed then that will be even better.
I have put a long list on the eve of the Christmas and I feel that my readers will have a look at it and decide on it.I feel that is an excellent list to look at.

Logix Microsystem is coming out of hibernation?

Is it for real.Looks like it is.Some great investor like Ashish Dhavan invested in it are trying to turn the corners of Logix Microsystem.
Friends, What I do here is , I write what I read after analysing it and put my analysis here.Now it is upto readers to decide what they needs to do with it.
It is all luck.Stocks you buy do not run and stocks you thought of buying but were not able to buy runs.

Logix Microsys Plans To Hive Off Carazoo.com; Fundraising On Cards?

BY TEAM VCC


Public-listed Logix is backed by Ashish Dhawan who has invested in his personal capacity.


Logix Microsystems is hiving off its online platform Carazoo that helps users buy and sell used and new cars. It will be turned into a separate subsidiary Carazoo Online Solutions Pvt Ltd, in a move that may allow the company to raise funds independently for expanding the business of the portal.


Currently, Carazoo is a business division of public-listed Logix Microsystems, a company backed by Passport Capital and also by Ashish Dhawan of ChrysCapital in his personal capacity.


The company’s board has approved the move in a meeting today. It now awaits a green signal from its shareholders.


Although details of the business operations of Carazoo could not be immediately verified, the parent firm had disclosed in the last annual report that income from the Indian portal Carazoo showed an impressive jump of 51 per cent in 2010-11, compared to the previous year. Incidentally, auto portals have been one of the e-com verticals attracting both M&As and money from institutional investors.


In September this year, CarSingh raised an undisclosed amount in its first round of funding from Seeders Venture Capital Pvt Ltd. Founded in January 2010, CarSingh claims to offer the largest selection of used cars inventory from dealers and private sellers, and says that it attracts more than two lakh users per month. It is now planning to expand its operations in used cars market across India, besides focusing on the after-sales market.


Before that, pre-owned vehicle sales portal MotorExchange raised $13 million in a third round of funding, led by Tiger Global Management. Also in 2010, European multimedia company Axel Springer AG and the India Today group acquired 70.4 per cent stake in Automotive Exchange Pvt Ltd (owner of the automotive classified ads portal Carwale.com). Earlier in 2011, the MIH Group, a subsidiary of the South African media group Naspers, acquired majority stake in Gaadi Web Pvt Ltd that runs the auto classifieds site Gaadi.com. Other automotive portals in India include eBay Motors, Autojunction.com, Autoindia.com and Zigwheels.com.


My Comments:
I remember I talked about Mega Soft sometime back and it has not moved much but I feel some accumalation has started in Mega Soft.
So, it is all patience ......

Lokpal..........2nd Round..Disappointed with Bachi Karkaria and Sobha Dey's view....

The question that is arising is Anna and his team are overdoing it?
I was watching to Bachi Karkaria and Shobha Dey , well known journalist, on TimesNow and I was actually disaapointed when I heard them.
Bachi Karkaria and Shobha Dey has same view and that is how Team Anna can claim that they are Civil Soceity and how they can ask for amendment?They say there are many Grs who are doing good things for the society , then how Anna and his team can say they are the only one government should hear?
But again coming back to those discussion, I ask Bachi Karkaria and Shobha Dey, without Anna Hazare would government had put the Lokpal Bill so quick?It was first decided to introduced 40 yrs back and nothing happened.
It is only and only because of Anna Hazare, that govermnet has to come out with the Bill and debate is taking place in parliamenet and that too as quick as in few months.The bill that never went on for 4 decades, is put in parliament within 8 months?Isn't that a MIRACLE?And due to whom that has happened?ANNA HAZARE. And now other civil socitey members are saying why only hear Anna and his team?There are others as well.But if Team Anna has brought good point like including class C&D under lokpal, bring CBI under Lokpal and if they are good points and they are actually good points as we all know that CBI under government and that means under corrupt polticians are good for nothing, then instead of supporting Anna Hazare and his team why making things difficult for INDIA and why help Government.

Now , if those so called civil society people feel that Anna's claim is wrong that only they need to be listened, then I don't think Anna Hazare is saying that.Anna Hazare keeps on saying that he wants STRONG LOKPAL BILL.That's it.............
If the demand of bringing CBI out of government clutches is wrong then come out and speak against team Anna.But why questioning Anna's cause?It is only and only because of Anna Hazare we are almost on the verge of passing the Strong Lokpal Bill and now when Lokpal Bill is almost done, why these learned people wants to argue on such things?Where were they for last 40 yrs when no Lokpal Bill was introduced?The reason is they were not popular enough to take a cause and bring crores of people under one roof and when Anna has done that , you people starts questioning him?
That is the charector I am talking of.That is the mentality I am talking of.We are ready to pull the legs of someone who is doing something good and will pull him/her so long that the entire cause becomes null and void.
No one can deny the fact that only due to Anna, Congress has to bend and bring the Lokpal bill on table in 8 months.The thing which never done for 40 years,  four decades, government has to do it in 8 months! And now some civil society groups are taking loggerheads with Anna and his team?
Actually by doing so, these people are playing in the hand of government knowingly or unknowningly.......Jane anjane ye log government ke hath main khel rahe hai......instead of making Anna hands stronger, they are unfortunately working for government.
If Anna would have not kept the pressure , governmnet would never have acted on bringing the Lokpal Bill this quick or I can say rather it would never had come for another 4 decades untill another Anna Hazare comes out.
What Anna Hazare is doing is keeping the pressure buildup constantly to move ahead with lokpal Bill otherwise just a day off not talking on Lokpal and this corrupt politicians will again derail any such move for Lokpal Bill to get presented in parliament and that is the correct way to do it with corrupt politicians anywhere in world.
Instead of discussing what needs to be done and included in Lokpal Bill, noted journalist like Bachi Karkarkia,Sobha Dey speaks what who is Anna and questions his integrity is really a very disturbing scenario from the most qualified and known to be the most broadminded media people of India.I had great regards for these two woman media person.I felt they really understand the situation and speak accordingly but when I saw both of them speaking on Anna and his team , I really was disappointed.Is this the same Bachi Karkaria who come out to fight against anything wrong?Same Sobha Dey who takes side for any discriminating happening in the society?
What has happened to them?I can understand anyone else speaking against Anna not atleast these two.The reason is I have always put woman on much higher level then men when a talk of corruption or discrimantion in society take place.They always come instantly to take side of anything wrong done then how people like Bachi Karkaria and Sobha Dey argue in such a way?

Had they forget the real CAUSE? CORRUPTION!

When Anna Hazare started his fast first time in last April somewhere around and told goverment to work on strong Lokpal Bill and gave them time, I was also not sure whether it will happen or not.The tempo needs to remain and that Anna Hazare and his team has done successfully.In all those months Bachi Karkaria and Sobha Dey or for that matter any party of civil gr could have talked with Anna Hazare team member and joined them.But these civil society people were also not sure whether Anna Hazare will be able to create that much pressure lateron on government to force them introducing Lokpal bill but Anna Hazare and his team did it and now they aree talking all rubbish like Anna Hazare should not dictate things, who is Anna Hazare , Anna Hazare is blackmailing parliament, what Anna is doing is not democratic ..etc etc........
Anna's team consist of very wellknown people and very well educated people who knows the constitution and things like that and these are the poeple who has drafted the bill and instead of joing with Team Anna and making the movement stronger what these celebrties like Sobha Dey , Bachi Karkaria , Vinod Mehta of Out look are doing?
Join  the crusade..........THE WAY ANNA AND HIS TEAM ARE DOING THINGS OR KEEPING PRESSURE UP ON GOVERNMENT IS THE ONLY WAY TO DO IT.......Once there is a division, government will have reason to say to people that we have to listen all civil groups and the take decision.Don't make Anna Hazare hand weak....join with Anna Hazare, only he can do it.....NOONE  WAS  ABLE  TO DO  IT FOR 40 YEARS says that only Anna Hazare was/is able to do it........bringing in strong Lokpal Bill.
This is not the way to do things, this is a democratic country , parliament is supreme..........do not say these words.The days are gone for such thinking........
Instead of fighting for the CAUSE,  the well-learned and pseudo journalist and human righterian has started debating what is wrong and what is right way to do?
For last 40 years , with same sense of thinking, like whether this is the right way to do or not?, Lokpal Bill never get introduced and when Anna Hazare and his team are trying to do things which will open a new milestone in the HISTORY OF INDIA , punishing corrupt politicians and beuracreates , why not join them instead of arguging whether the way Anna is doing is the RIGHTY WAY or WRONG WAY  to do it?
Just imagine a party like congress who has ruled most part of the independence, while keep saying , Who is Anna, or this is not the democratic way etc etc......they have to introduce the bill , that says that Anna's way is democratic otherwise can one imagine what the governmnet can do to Anna and his team?We all kow what congress did to Arvind Kejrewa and Kiran Bedi etc....
According to me, the way ANNA is doing , pressuring government is the RIGHT WAY TO DO THINGS  otherwise let me tell you, this movement can and will end in a BIG FIASCO.......
I have heard, Digvijay singh, Manish Tiwari, Kapil Sibal, Pranab Roy, Lalu Yadav saying , who is Anna?Decisions are not taken on streets or at Jantar Mantar.
Ok...fine.... then why are you bringing the Lokpal Bill so quickly?Why are you  listening Anna Hazare and his team?Is it so that after Apr 2011, Congress the ruling party decided to bring the Lokpal Bill on their own?Was that a selfconscious decision for  GOOD OR BETTERMENT OF PEOPLE OF INDIA?SUDDENLY THE GOVERNMENT STARTED TO THINK ON LOKPAL?
It is a fact that due and only due to Anna Hazare, the Lokpal Bill has been introduced and the pressure he and his team has kept is creating jitters in camp of government.
These media people and other Civil society gr are talking of arrogance of Anna Hazare and we also agree with them.Don't we?
Let me ask one question to you all.
We the people of India never QUESTIONED  a police arrogance when he shows us all rules and regulations , have you seen his face?He looks ominous but as soon as you show him a note of Rs 50 or Rs 100 he will laugh and let you go.
I have seen a  police comstable beating a poor little girl just recently on TV ,who stoled Rs 280 like anything.Who gave them the permission to beat a poor girl who stole Rs 280?So is it so, that politicinas who makes thousands of crores go scot free and a poor girl who stole something worth Rs 280 is taken to task?Is this the system we are talking?
Taking bribe or making scam is lesser evil then stealing food or something like that worth Rs 300?
I ask this question to everyone here.Doesn't your blood boil for that?See how our mind has become.We take these thing normal and has taken for granted what our ploiticians are doing.It is like we have already given permission to all politicians to do whatever they like but if someone else do something then we come out with big Questionarie...........
And now we are talking of Anna Hazare arrogance?Can't we able to see Congress arrogance?Can't we see all polticinas arrogance?Can't we see beurocrates arrogance?Can't we see Havaldar's, PI or PSI  arrogance ?
What we are talking? .......I feel laughing or taking pity of how our mind has become.......

Welldone Anna Hazare.....I am with you.....

Merry Christmas to all my readers......

Friends,
On the eve of Christmas I take an opportunity to write stocks including A gr stocks which looks good to me.
I hope readers will have a good look at them and then decide what to do......

1) Siemens Ltd
2) ABB Ltd
3) Bharat Forge Ltd
4)L&T Ltd
5)Sesa Goa Ltd
6) Petronet LNG Ltd
7) Central Bank of India Ltd
8)Coal India Ltd
9)Oil India Ltd
10)Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd

Now B gr :
1) KPIT Ltd
2)Selan Exploration Ltd
3)India Glycols Ltd
4)La Opala RG Ltd
5) IFB Ind Ltd
6)Vadilal Ltd
7)TRF Ltd
8)Jubilant Ind
9)Jindal Drilling Ltd
10)IFB Agro Ltd
11)Pitti Laminations Ltd
12)Pondy Oxide Ltd
13)Heritage Foods Ltd
14)Vishnu Chem Ltd
15)Sree Rayal sema Hi-Strength Hypo Ltd
16) R S Software Ltd

Dark horses:
1) GNRL Ltd
2) Lesha Ind
3)Kreon Fin Ltd
4)8 K Miles Ltd

Philanthropic activity..........

Friends,
I know I am again today going to write on such a subject where there will be lots and lots of different type of opinions.
These are absolutely my views .....

I read today the below news which is pasted here and link given as well under it:

Meet Charles Feeney, Cornell's $350 Million Donor

The New York Times has unmasked 80-year-old Cornell alum Charles F. Feeney as the anonymous donor who gave the school a $350 million donation to construct a new technology-based satellite campus on Roosevelt Island in New York City. Officials at The Atlantic Philanthropies, the foundation started by Feeney in 1982, confirmed to the paper last night that he was the one who made the gift for the project, which is expected to generate an extra $1.4 billion in tax revenue for the city, plus 20,000 construction jobs and as many as 30,000 new jobs once the facility is up and running.


Related: Bloomberg Chooses Cornell to Make New York a Silicon Valley 2.0


Which leads to the inevitable question: who is this guy? To begin with, he's a very rich guy. He co-founded Duty Free Shoppers Group in the early 1960s, and sold his stake in the company to LVMH Moet Hennessy-Louis Vuitton for $2.47 billion in 1996. At the time, The Times noted Feeney's "net worth far exceeds the $975 million estimated by Forbes magazine." After the sale, The Times reported estimated that the proceeds, paired with other funds Feeney turned over to the foundation "left the charity with $3.5 billion, even after the $610 million that has already been distributed to charities."


Related: Strauss-Kahn Pins Defense on Datebook, Claim of Consent


To that point, he'd be donating anonymously, but it was Judith Miller of The New York Times who coaxed Feeney into discussing his donations with a member of the press for the first time in 1997, though he wouldn't pose for a picture.

Related: Bloggers Unite Against Drunken Puppy Shopping


In adidition to donating to universities and hospitals, Feeney told Miller that he's also made personal contributions to Sinn Fein, the IRA's political arm, worth up to $280,000, which made him the organization's biggest American donor (Feeny holds dual citizenship.) As of 1997, the foundation's largest grant was $30 million, a figure that Feeney has dwarfed in recent years. In 2009, he gave $125 million to build a new medical center for the University of California-San Francisco that would treat women, children, and cancer patients. Over the course of the last decade, he's given more than €46m to the University of Limerick in Ireland. Hs total donations for Cornell over the years -- not counting the latest $350 hit -- exceed $600 million.


Related: Inside the Miraculous Math of the 9/11 Memorial


Perhaps not surprisingly, he took the "Giving Pledge" created by Bill and Melinda Gates earlier this year, vowing to give away everything in the Atlantic Properties coffers by 2020. As Dealbook noted at the time, the rapid timetable illustrates Feeney's specific brand of philanthropy, which eschews trusts and foundations for what he calls "giving while living," in which the philanthropist's goal is to become flat broke before his own death.


Related: Wall Street Occupiers Fear Drummers Will Be Their Undoing

Nearly every profile makes note of how unimpressed Feeney is with what his wealth can buy him, noting that he flies coach, wears a $15 watch, and doesn't own a house or a car. When Miller asked him why he decided to give everything away, Feeney replied, "I simply decided I had enough money."

In 2007, when The New York Times convinced him to sit for a profile again, Jim Dwyer said, not inaccurately, that Feeney was "what Donald Trump would be if he led his life backward."


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/meet-charles-feeney-cornells-350-million-donor-161507712.html
 
 
 
My Views:
 
Whenever I read such type of news I get disturbed.Disturbed in the sense that why that is not happening in India?What is wrong with us?We have old heritage of 5000 years and we have Vedas, Upnishad, Puranas , Ramayana , Mahabharat and above all which is known and globally acclaimed Bhagvad Gita.
We have excellent charectors like Lord Rama, Lord Krishna depicted in our ages old scripture and we have read them and we even give examples of them.
Then why there is no rich and wealthy man coming out to give everything he has owned and give it back to the society?
Why we are seeing Americans doing that?Are they mad?Are they insane?Are they trying to show to the world how much they are great?
Why it is not happening in our country? Why we Indians wants more and more money?Why we are not satisfied and we come to the conclusion that now it is time to give it back from where we got it?
We keep boasting about our sculpture and thousand of years old heritage but is that making any sense?
It seems like that , anywhere ,we have never been taught to be patriot.These thousands of years old heritage has not taught us to be patriot.We, Indians are missing it.
We are not satisfied with what we have.We want more and more.We want more power, we want more money and we want to show to the relatives and friends what we have got and we want to be proud of it.We don't care for anyone except us.We don't have any gratitude for someone who has helped us.We are SELFCENTERED.We just think of ourselves.For everything we do, " I" comes first.
Why we have no WB's, why we have no Bill Gates, why we have no Charles Fenny? and what we need to see is , WB lives in his decades old house.He has not build a house like Mukesh Ambani or Laxmi Mittal,Charles Fenny has no car, he wear a $15 cost watch.So it is not that he spend everything all his life and after getting satisfied he came out to do philanthropic activities.
These all people never read Bhagvad Gita, never read Vedas, Upnishad or Poranas and still they donates and donates everything they earned in their life.
 It is not easy to donates eveything one has earned in life and perticularly when it is billions of dollars.Just imagine ,if we have to give a present we will think many times how much it will cost,if we have to help someone we will see whether he will be able to pay us back and if not whether he will be of any help in future.Then how these Americans whom we call the most cunning fellow able to do that for their country?
Just try to give someone something without expecting anything.Just try it.It is not possible.We are very narrow minded.We can't give anything to anyone.We have not learned to give.Our heart is too small to do that.Ham bolte rehte hai, dil bada hona chahiye lekin asal main hum sirf bolte hai....doosro ko kehne ke liye.......lekin hamara dil bada nahi hai......main to tumhari bat karta tha...meri nahi......lol.....We are experts in giving advice......Kis ko kya karna chahiye, kya nahi karna chahiye , ye sab hum batete hai doosron ko lekin hum apni bat nahi karte , ki hamein kya karna hai ya karna chaahiye tha........we are always ready to show others mistake but never look at what we have done......
It seems that there is something missing in our centuries old books.
I donno but whenever I read such news I get disturbed.Why it is not happening in India?
The thought doesn't come to us to help others.We do not take pity of anyone else. We are not concerned about the trouble of our countryman.We are not troubled to see someone going through pain.Actually we are opposite of that nature.We become happy when someone is in pain.If someone lose something we become happy.Doosre ke dukh se ham ko mann ki shanti milti hai.
If someone cars gets broke we become happy and that is the reason we put a scratch on someone car.We don't like our neighbour or relatives remain happy.If they are happy we are unhappy.
What is this?Ye kya hai?Is ko kis type ki mentality kahenge?What type of mentality we will call it?
 
We never think of people who are suffering.Suffering from various desiese like Cancer etc and hence we do not donate.Tears do not come out from our eyes.Ours eyes has dried.No tears left.We have become ruthless.
Something somewhere is wrong.We only blame others.We keep fighting for our selves.We never think of fighting for others.
I know I have talked on this subject many times and many may even dislike it but I can't resist myself writing this and hence I have written.Those who feel to ignore this post  need to do it.

Dear Friends,
I again got a request from my ardent follower and reader mr OM that bottom is near and I need to hurry up for giving my list of probables stocks which needs to be looked upon.


I feel that , every reader is eager to read my picks and hence I feel that I need to write what I am thinking of the market and hence giving a reply here on front page.:
I do not boast that I am good or a champion nor I feel I am good enough to see where the market is going  but whatever I read and understand , I am putting it here.
I appreciate your( all my readers) faith you have put on me and I promise that I will never do anything purposefully to misguide you all which I have been doing since the inception of this blog.I have stick to being honest and fair at any jucture of market or for that matter any time I have written anything on any subject....

Here is my reply:


Have faith in me.Market is not going to runaway.


It has a long to go for going up.


Congress has tabled the food subsidy bill for poor and that is as big as 1 lac cr and that will not be easy to digest by the market when fiscal deficit is going up.


We are not on a firm footing at all.


It is all gimmicks by Congress and they have kept CBI out of perview of Lokpal and that makes no sense according to me as I agree with the Anna Hazare team.


There are other clauses in bill tabled by Congress which are debatable.Congress is trying to divide and rule.I hope u understand what I am trying to say here.


With all these issues goling on , it is obvious that economics progress will be on back burner and in that case our GDP will take a beating and it can lower to 6 or even 5%.


Real Estate property scenario is not at all looking good and flats and commercial construction like offices etc are lying unsold and that is taking toll on Real Estate Cos and hence there is a huge danger of NPA's for bank and when such things happens , we have a problem like USA, where the banking sector is in danger as the NPA's will increase and bank will have to bear the brunt and Banks will have to make provision for NPA's which will be in huge amt.....

 I read somewhere that RJ is selling his stake of 37% in Aptech for 600 cr through auction and that shows that RJ is also in need of the money.That says everything..........


Don't be in panic to buy anything.I maybe wrong but that is what I am seeing....Market will give ample time to buy.Shankar Sharma has said many times that Ril Ind fair value is at 500-550 and L&T fair value is 700-750 and that will come and may even go down more  then that.
If infaltion is not tamed, if rate cut  do not happen, if IIP will have a negative growth , if economics reforms are taking back seat then how market will go up, I don't understand?
 With the Anna Hazare movement going to take a big place , as Congress has kept CBI out of  Lokpal, I see how Congress would think anything other then that......
Wait for the first rate cut.When RBI decides to cut back the rate to stimulate the growth.
The first rate cut will be of only .25 point basis and it will take many months for those rate coming back to what we saw 1 yr back .Each and every time there will be a 25 basis rate cut which will very slowly increase the liquidity in our system and hence I feel that even if rate cut happens in January 2012, still it will be a long way to go.
Don't get deceived if market goes up in morning trade........it can come down heavily at the end.....
Rest all LUCK.......

Market making new lows............

Dear Friends,
It is all same.We say, market making new lows or market making lower Top......lol
That makes same meaning.
I have already written that 3900 is in offing and it looks like it will come.Untill inflation don't come down, untill Int rate do not get cut again,untill IIP nos start coming good , I feel that we are not going to see any good time in our market and that is why I feel that 3900 will come and untill it do not come, all rally should be considered as a relief rally or shortcovering.In bear market , all down targets gets achieved because everyone wants to sell and save money and hence all lower targets gets achieved.
Our market going down is now on reason which has come on surface domestically.The inflation,rate cut,Manufacturing slow down, Real Estate problem, etc etcEven the reason of EU has found some respite and still our market is going down which says that the problem is domestic and not global for our market.
FII has lost confidence in our economy and with rupee becoming cheaper against dollar which made a high of 53.70 against dollar, our import bills are soaring high.Fiscal deficit is going wayward, we are not able to control it.Even though in real terms as read by me, it should be 70 against dollar if we are still good but if India is growing then we need to see rupee much stronger.
If USA is doing bad, if EU are doing bad, if West is doing bad, then why rupee is falling.Which economics learning says so?Is there something we don't understand why rupee is falling so badly?Is government doing it purposefully ?
And then the scams.
Well, friends this will passon and happy days will come but we will have to pass through the pain and that is a part of market.
I have completed reading "Confessions of a Wall Street Insider" by C C Hazard as written in one of my post titled " The Luck Factor" by M C Gunther.
That is an excellent book written around 1970's and it is worth reading.It shows all  insideout and how things are manouvered in stock market.It exposed all term, fundamentals, Technicals,good management, sales and all.
I use to read books and I like reading books on various subjects and I can read them sitting hours togather.One may call me a voracious reader. Someone wrote" Books are your real friends" and looks like it is true.Books are your really your real friends.I was an avid reader and looks like my habit of reading books I have got it back, for whatever reason.
Reading makes you think.It makes you think what is right and what is wrong.Reading expands ones horizen of thinking.One learns something while reading.Reading is knowledge and knowledge is power.It pays somewhere.Reading shows us the way of reasoning.
Coming back to the market, I feel that more downside is left and untill RBI don't start cutting rate back, we are not going to see market making a comeback soon.
There are no fundamentals......nothing like funda ka mental........it is market and that's it.
All due diligence , all knowing what Co is doing, how is the management, sales, profit, CARG, RONW everything goes haywire when market starts going down.
I somewhere read that 60% of 21k is 12600 and so that will be a great support to look at.
When market went down in 2008, we touched 8000 and that is 40% of 21k .So either it is 60% of 21k , i.e is 12600 or we take out 12600 from 21k and that is 7400 or 8k, no one knows.
But if global situation stabilizes and our politicians start thinking of our country and start doing on that front our market will start making a comeback.
That is why I always use to write, invest those money which you will not need for 5 yrs.Don't borrow.
Make sure one have enough money to run the house.It is true for business as well.Before taking any advances or loans , which we call it a DEBT, make sure you will be able to pay Interest every month.Make sure your business is such that you have no problem in doing so.Paying Int should not become such a big issue that you have no money left to run your house. It should never happen that one have to borrow to pay interest and if that happens then it is not a good thinking or one can say you have erred and you are not a good businessman .That is the worst case scenario.That should never happen.It is a simple rule that don't try to stretch your leg so long that it goes out of your bedsheet.Jitni chaddar hai utna hi pair bahar nikaliye.That is the bottomline.Taking a calculative risk is good but at the same time one should  be also able to return back once understood that you have make a mistake.Any steps which rectify your mistake is always a good step taken.Nothing wrong to confess anything done wrong.Don't be adamant.Don't become stubborn.
Learn to accept.Learn to accept mistakes.That will go long way in your life.Will bring peace of mind as well.
One should be able to sleep soundly at night.At the end of the day nothing should huant us.Nothing should make us feel guilty.Listen to your heart.
I have written umpteen times, it is not easy to make money in stock market.See how much it is coming true.For all investors these is a lesson one should be learning.
Be on the sidelines.Don't average or buy anything now.That is what I feel.One may take their own decision.

Dev Anand......An era has ended.....

Friends,
That is True.Era has ended with passing away of Dev Anand .Though after Des Pardes Dev Anand was not able to give any hit films, the work done by him and his Nav ketan banner is immense.
There was a triplet, Dilip,Raj and Dev.All had their own way to work.But they rule the Bollywood untill mid sixties and Dev still remained as an actor untill mid seventies.
My most favourite film is "Guide".I don't know how many times I have seen and I never get tired.It always shows me something different whenever I see it.A person supporting a woman desire,her own liking and to support her he lose his best friend, he loses his mother , and while doing it he is still not in love but gradually both Rosy and Raju fell in love with eachother and then Rosy's husband comes to meet her and the trouble starts from there.If Rosy would have desired she would have saved her mentor and lover Raju, who has sacrificed everything for her , but she decided against it (During that part the songs that have been picturised are excellent.)and Raju goes to jail for forgery and then the salvation of Soul part comes in the end .


Actually all the songs that were picturised were excellent.S D Burman was at his best.
Vijay Anand( fondly known as Goldie) was brilliant.RK Narayan story was best .Everything was best.Even Dev Anand himself was excellent in acting.If one can observe , one will not see the Dev Anand style of moving the hand or shoulder in one manner he use to do.His head remains steady.His hand remains steady .His shoulder remains steady.Dev Anand remains steady in whole picture.....That was a Touch of Vijay Anand , the Director.He was brilliant.
Some of  Goldies Hits are Tesri Manzil , Johny Mera Nam, Blackmail( Dharm, Rakhee) etc.....
But since 1949 The Nav Ketan banner gave 18 hits films and tha is record in its own.

Dev Anand was in Love with Zenat and at that time Dev Anand was 55 and Zenat was 27.Does love has any boundries?

Read on:


Excerpts from his autobiography reveal his obsession with the sex bomb, and how Raj Kapoor spoilt it one night



Zeenat and I started being linked with each other in the magazines and newspapers that people hungry for gossip love to read. For, while she was the adorable painting that they loved to watch, admire and emulate, I was the painter who had etched that painting. The colours were mine as was the finished drawing on the canvas. While she as a person was God’s creation, her image was of my making, and together we became inseparable in the public eye.
Whenever and wherever she was talked about glowingly, I loved it; and whenever and wherever I was discussed in the same vein, she was jubilant. In the subconscious, we had become emotionally attached to each other. At the silver jubilee celebration of Hare Rama Hare Krishna at a theatre in Calcutta, as Usha Uthup, the famous pop singer, sang the ‘Dum maro dum’ number on stage and reached the crescendo of her rendering, she pulled Zeenat, who was sitting in the audience, on stage; Zeenat in turn pulled me on stage too, so that together we could sing along with Usha. The audience in a moment of spontaneity also jumped up on stage and the song became a chorus of over a hundred voices. The maddened crowds picked Zeenat up on their shoulders, raising her heavenwards. I felt proud of her, and yet, at the same time, I felt a stab of jealousy; of possessiveness as well.
How could they own her in that way? She was my prized possession! I knew it was a stupid thought on my part, but I couldn’t help it.   ( That exactly happens when one is madly in love with someone,  one starts thinking stupidly and here you have a celebrity and level headed person like Dev Anand doing that.......lol.....) 
A couple of years later, after the premiere of Ishq Ishq Ishq at Metro cinema, Raj Kapoor kissed Zeenat in full view of the invited audience, congratulating her for her sparkling performance in the film. That must have made her evening all the more sparkling. Again I felt proud of her, as much as I admired Raj Kapoor for his honest and spontaneous reaction. Complimenting her was indirectly complimenting her mentor, and I inwardly saluted my contemporary film-maker for his sound judgement. Yet, I was jealous of him for making advances on what I considered my sole possession, my discovery, my leading lady, and desiring her with a kiss. Time moved on. Suddenly, one day, I felt I was desperately in love with Zeenat—and wanted to say so to her! To make a honest confession, at a very special, exclusive place meant for romance. I chose the Rendezvous at the Taj, on the top of the city, where we had dined together once earlier.
No setting could be more appropriate, I thought, than a quiet candlelit table in the corner, the candle throwing its gleam on Zeenat’s face, just as the glow of her cigarette-lighter had lit up her face when I first met her. The dimmed lights of the city below, shining out of the darkness, would certainly light up the romance of the moment.
I called her up to say, ‘Zeenie, I want to go out on a date with you tonight.’
‘But aren’t we already going together to a party tonight?’ she asked me.
‘Of course we are. But let’s just go there only for a brief while, say Hi to the gathering, and then quickly disappear!’ It was an order, but very lovingly conveyed.
She was quiet.
‘H-e-ll-o!’ I said.
‘Yes, I am listening.’
‘Is that a date?’ I asked.
‘If you so desire. See you then!’ And she hung up.
I picked her up. Together we went to the party. It was on in full force. The first person who greeted Zeenat from a distance was a drunken Raj Kapoor, with a gallant drawl, ‘There she is!’ He threw his arms around her exuberantly.
This suddenly struck me as a little too familiar. And the way she reciprocated his embrace seemed much more than just polite and courteous. She quickly bent down to touch his feet, and then Romancing With Life gave me an embarrassed look. Raj grasped my hand in a very tightgrip, like never before, as if trying to make amends for some wrong he had done, suddenly overflowing with affection.
A hint of suspicion crossed my mind. A couple of days earlier, a rumour had been floating around that Zeenat had gone to Raj’s studio for a screen test for the main role in his new movie Satyam Shivam Sundaram. The hearsay now started ringing true. My heart was bleeding.
‘You are breaking your promise,’ Raj was now telling Zeenat in his drunken joviality, ‘that you will always be seen by me only in a white sari!’


More embarrassment was writ large on her face, and Zeenat was not the same Zeenat for me any more. My heart broke into pieces. I wanted to leave the party at once and go off somewhere alone, to be just by myself, so that I could swallow the humiliation thrust on my ego.

But a struggle within me transformed itself into a ‘to-hell-withit- all’ attitude, and prompted me to say goodbye to a relationship which, though it had been non-committal emotionally on both sides, had been honest all the same. There was no space in it for professional dishonesty.
The painting I had made of her started showing signs of cracking.


‘How long do you intend staying here, Zeenat?’ I asked her.


She looked at Raj, as if seeking his permission to leave.


‘Let her stay here, Dev—and you too—enjoy!’ he said in a drunken drawl.


‘By all means,’ I said. ‘Enjoy, Zeenat. Call me up later, when you feel like it!’


‘But aren’t we suppose to be going to the other place together?’ she casually asked.


‘Doesn’t matter!’ I said.


The rendezvous had already lost all meaning in my mind. I sneaked out of the place, quietly apologizing to the host. The evening delivered a blow to my personality, and my dominating spirit. I had decided on the spur of the moment to tell Zeenat for the first time how much I loved her. And that there was an idea in my mind of another story that would put her on a pedestal as never before, the highest so far. But that was never to be. And so be it! I quickly detached myself, convincing myself that I had blundered, taking too many things for granted.
( That is a blunder a person does , taking for granted and actually that is never the case, the opposite sex has no intentions like that......but when someone is madly in love with someone, that happens and the best thing is what Dev Anand did, coming out of it as early as possible)
There was no need for me to let any rancour germinate in my mind against Zeenat.


I had prepared her for the world, and she was free to go into the arms of anyone who would help her further her ambitious dreams. A group of chanting devotees was passing by my car. I sat listening to the sound of cymbals and bells.


Hare Krishna Hare Krishna


Krishna Krishna Hare Hare


Hare Ram Hare Ram


Ram Ram Hare Hare

I closed my eyes. Zeenat still remained beautiful in my eyes, with an honest soul. And Raj a passionate film-maker. I opened my eyes. A streak of lightning seemed to flash across my mind and inspired a new thought. I started pursuing it. A new chapter was thrown open before me, its first pages slowly unfolding.


The idea of a new film was coming slowly into focus.


Romancing with Life: An Autobiography by Dev Anand has been published by Viking/Penguin
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I will only rhym the line of his song from HumDono:

"Main Zindagi ka sath nibhata chala gaya, har fikr ko dhuen main udata chala gaya...."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sagi0o-d7XU

Enjoy at YouTube......

Dev Anand himself has confessed in one of his recent interview at TimesNow that this song gave him a new dimension of looking at LIFE......

Does India Know This?

 
Digging into China’s nuclear tunnels



By William Wan
The Washington Post – 23 hrs agoGeorgetown University's Professor Phillip A. Karber spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. (The Washington Post …more ) less


Share81EmailPrintThe Chinese have called it their “Underground Great Wall” — a vast network of tunnels designed to hide their country’s increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear arsenal.


For the past three years, a small band of obsessively dedicated students at Georgetown University has called it something else: homework.


Led by their hard-charging professor, a former top Pentagon official, they have translated hundreds of documents, combed through satellite imagery, obtained restricted Chinese military documents and waded through hundreds of gigabytes of online data.


The result of their effort? The largest body of public knowledge about thousands of miles of tunnels dug by the Second Artillery Corps, a secretive branch of the Chinese military in charge of protecting and deploying its ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads.

The study is yet to be released, but already it has sparked a congressional hearing and been circulated among top officials in the Pentagon, including the Air Force vice chief of staff.


Most of the attention has focused on the 363-page study’s provocative conclusion — that China’s nuclear arsenal could be many times larger than the well-established estimates of arms-control experts.


(Graphic: Evidence of China’s nuclear storage system)
“It’s not quite a bombshell, but those thoughts and estimates are being checked against what people think they know based on classified information,” said a Defense Department strategist who would discuss the study only on the condition of anonymity.
The study’s critics, however, have questioned the unorthodox Internet-based research of the students, who drew from sources as disparate as Google Earth, blogs, military journals and, perhaps most startlingly, a fictionalized TV docudrama about Chinese artillery soldiers — the rough equivalent of watching Fox’s TV show “24” for insights into U.S. counterterrorism efforts.
But the strongest condemnation has come from nonproliferation experts who worry that the study could fuel arguments for maintaining nuclear weapons in an era when efforts are being made to reduce the world’s post-Cold War stockpiles.


Beyond its impact in the policy world, the project has made a profound mark on the students — including some who have since graduated and taken research jobs with the Defense Department and Congress.

“I don’t even want to know how many hours I spent on it,” said Nick Yarosh, 22, an international politics senior at Georgetown. “But you ask people what they did in college, most just say I took this class, I was in this club. I can say I spent it reading Chinese nuclear strategy and Second Artillery manuals. For a nerd like me, that really means something.”


For students, an obsession
The students’ professor, Phillip A. Karber, 65, had spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But it was his early work in defense that cemented his reputation, when he led an elite research team created by Henry Kissinger, who was then the national security adviser, to probe the weaknesses of Soviet forces.
Karber prided himself on recruiting the best intelligence analysts in the government. “You didn’t just want the highest-ranking or brightest guys, you wanted the ones who were hungry,” he said.


In 2008, Karber was volunteering on a committee for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a Pentagon agency charged with countering weapons of mass destruction.


After a devastating earthquake struck Sichuan province, the chairman of Karber’s committee noticed Chinese news accounts reporting that thousands of radiation technicians were rushing to the region. Then came pictures of strangely collapsed hills and speculation that the caved-in tunnels in the area had held nuclear weapons.
Find out what’s going on, the chairman asked Karber, who began looking for analysts again — this time among his students at Georgetown.
The first inductees came from his arms-control classes. Each semester, he set aside a day to show them tantalizing videos and documents he had begun gathering on the tunnels. Then he concluded with a simple question: What do you think it means?


“The fact that there were no answers to that really got to me,” said former student Dustin Walker, 22. “It started out like any other class, tests on this day or that, but people kept coming back, even after graduation. . . . We spent hours on our own outside of class on this stuff.”


The students worked in their dorms translating military texts. They skipped movie nights for marathon sessions reviewing TV clips of missiles being moved from one tunnel structure to another. While their friends read Shakespeare, they gathered in the library to war-game worst-case scenarios of a Chinese nuclear strike on the United States.


Over time, the team grew from a handful of contributors to roughly two dozen. Most spent their time studying the subterranean activities of the Second Artillery Corps.


While the tunnels’ existence was something of an open secret among the handful of experts studying China’s nuclear arms, almost no papers or public reports on the structures existed.


So the students turned to publicly available Chinese sources — military journals, local news reports and online photos posted by Chinese citizens. It helped that China’s famously secretive military was beginning to release more information, driven by its leaders’ eagerness to show off China’s growing power to its citizens.
The Internet also generated a raft of leads: new military forums, blogs and once-obscure local TV reports now posted on the Chinese equivalents of YouTube. Strategic string searches even allowed the students to get behind some military Web sites and download documents such as syllabuses taught at China’s military academies.
Drudgery and discoveries
The main problem was the sheer amount of translation required.
Each semester, Karber managed to recruit only one or two Chinese-speaking students. So the team assembled a makeshift system to scan images of the books and documents they found. Using text-capture software, they converted those pictures into Chinese characters, which were fed into translation software to produce crude English versions. From those, they highlighted key passages for finer translation by the Chinese speakers.
The downside was the drudgery — hours feeding pages into the scanner. The upside was that after three years, the students had compiled a searchable database of more than 1.4 million words on the Second Artillery and its tunnels.
By combining everything they found in the journals, video clips, satellite imagery and photos, they were able to triangulate the location of several tunnel structures, with a rough idea of what types of missiles were stored in each.
Their work also yielded smaller revelations: how the missiles were kept mobile and transported from structure to structure, as well as tantalizing images and accounts of a “missile train” and disguised passenger rail cars to move China’s long-range missiles.


To facilitate the work, Karber set up research rooms for the students at his home in Great Falls. He bought Apple computers and large flat-screen monitors for their video work and obtained small research grants for those who wanted to work through the summer. When work ran late, many crashed in his basement’s spare room.
“I got fat working on this thing because I didn’t go to the gym anymore. It was that intense,” said Yarosh, who has continued on the project this year not for credit but purely as a hobby. “It’s not the typical college course. Dr. Karber just tells you the objective and gives you total freedom to figure out how to get there. That level of trust can be liberating.”


Some of the biggest breakthroughs came after members of Karber’s team used personal connections in China to obtain a 400-page manual produced by the Second Artillery and usually available only to China’s military personnel.
Another source of insight was a pair of semi-fictionalized TV series chronicling the lives of Second Artillery soldiers.
The plots were often overwrought with melodrama — one series centers on a brigade commander who struggles to whip his slipshod unit into shape while juggling relationship problems with his glamorous Olympic-swim-coach girlfriend. But they also included surprisingly accurate depictions of artillery units’ procedures that lined up perfectly with the military manual and other documents.
“Until someone showed us on screen how exactly these missile deployments were done from the tunnels, we only had disparate pieces. The TV shows gave us the big picture of how it all worked together,” Karber said.


A bigger Chinese arsenal?


In December 2009, just as the students began making progress, the Chinese military admitted for the first time that the Second Artillery had indeed been building a network of tunnels. According to a report by state-run CCTV, China had more than 3,000 miles of tunnels — roughly the distance between Boston and San Francisco — including deep underground bases that could withstand multiple nuclear attacks.


The news shocked Karber and his team. It confirmed the direction of their research, but it also highlighted how little attention the tunnels were garnering outside East Asia.


The lack of interest, particularly in the U.S. media, demonstrated China’s unique position in the world of nuclear arms.
For decades, the focus has been on the two powers with the largest nuclear stockpiles by far — the United States, with 5,000 warheads available for deployment, and Russia, which has 8,000.


But of the five nuclear weapons states recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, China has been the most secretive. While the United States and Russia are bound by bilateral treaties that require on-site inspections, disclosure of forces and bans on certain missiles, China is not.


The assumption for years has been that the Chinese arsenal is relatively small — anywhere from 80 to 400 warheads.
China has encouraged that perception. As the only one of the five original nuclear states with a no-first-use policy, it insists that it keeps a small stockpile only for “minimum deterrence.”


Given China’s lack of transparency, Karber argues, all the experts have to work with are assumptions, which can often be dead wrong. As an example, Karber often recounts to his students his experience of going to Russia with former defense secretary Frank C. Carlucci to discuss U.S. help in securing the Russian nuclear arsenal.
The United States had offered Russia about 20,000 canisters designed to safeguard warheads — a number based on U.S. estimates at the time.


The generals told Karber they needed 40,000.


Skepticism among analysts


At the end of the tunnel study, Karber cautions that the same could happen with China. Based on the number of tunnels the Second Artillery is digging and its increasing deployment of missiles, he argues, China’s nuclear warheads could number as many as 3,000.
It is an assertion that has provoked heated responses from the arms-control community.


Gregory Kulacki, a China nuclear analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, publicly condemned Karber’s report at a recent lecture in Washington. In an interview afterward, he called the 3,000 figure “ridiculous” and said the study’s methodology — especially its inclusion of posts from Chinese bloggers — was “incompetent and lazy.”


“The fact that they’re building tunnels could actually reinforce the exact opposite point,” he argued. “With more tunnels and a better chance of survivability, they may think they don’t need as many warheads to strike back.”


Reaction from others has been more moderate.


“Their research has value, but it also shows the danger of the Internet,” said Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. Kristensen faulted some of the students’ interpretation of the satellite images.


“One thing his report accomplishes, I think, is it highlights the uncertainty about what China has,” said Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank. “There’s no question China’s been investing in tunnels, and to look at those efforts and pose this question is worthwhile.”


This year, the Defense Department’s annual report on China’s military highlighted for the first time the Second Artillery’s work on new tunnels, partly a result of Karber’s report, according to some Pentagon officials. And in the spring, shortly before a visit to China, some in the office of then-Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates were briefed on the study.


“I think it’s fair to say senior officials here have keyed upon the importance of this work,” said one Pentagon officer who was not authorized to speak on the record.


For Karber, provoking such debate means that he and his small army of undergrads have succeeded.


“I don’t have the slightest idea how many nuclear weapons China really has, but neither does anyone else in the arms-control community,” he said. “That’s the problem with China — no one really knows except them.”