Sunday, February 24, 2008

How to pick a multibagger....Amuthan Angappan........a blogger has copied my original writing.....

Friends,
I have been intimated that this blog writer has copied my original writing...which is as under..which I wrote at ISG(Investmentsupergrowth)gr at Yahoo gr...I have stopped writing there but it is natural that this has been copied from there....
Those who are my followers/readers at ISG Yahoo gr (run by Mr.Kukku )since long must be knowing this and must have read it.....Readers like....bsebull(Shankar)Sundara Rajan,VickyKhanna,even Kukku himslef, Chanish,Carlos ,KKP to name a few must have read it...I would like to elaborate that Mr.Kukku also writes in Money Times magazine....
But I am writing it here again so that my readers would also benifiited from my writing which I was going to write it with some more angles ......but will add that angle next time.....

This is the bloggers link:http://amuthanangappan.blogspot.com/2008/01/how-to-choose-multibagger-stock.html

How to choose a multibagger stock

1)First and the biggest preference will go to Low Equity.Because low eq. is an advantage when company plans expansion and Eq dilution takes place.Even a right of 1:1 or even 2:1 will not expand the eq in a big way and hence earning can match the eq.Another reason for low equity preference is even though the earning is not coming because of slow down of economy or a bad year for the company , then when the tide turns and with slightest turnaround company can show good EPS which is one of the most important criteria for investing as it is related to P/E.

2)Next is Promoters Holding.I have many times just invested in stocks on just looking at one parametres.Promoter s Holding, apart from ofcourse Low eq.Above 55% is almost a must , with exception in IT Sector where it is seen that you almost get very less company where the promoters holding is above 55%.I will give an Example for this.I bought Narendra Properties at just Rs 18/- at just looking at promoters holding which was as high as 72% and moreover one of the promoters was also hodling some 8% in Public holding.Of course the sector also palyed a role for me to take a decision fast.Narendra Properties is in Construction Sector.Narendra Properties touched Rs 77/-.Another is Lancor Holding.Promoters holding is as high as 72% and almost over 20% is held by FII's.I bought at Rs 166/- and now it is Rs 481/-.Both these stocks I bougth after May Carnage and one can calculate what return I got and am still bullish on both of them.Both have very low Public holding and that is a trigger according to me.

3)Sector also plays a very important role while choosing stocks.

4)Now the most improtant criteria is earning visibility.This is very important.eg. Navin Flourine.Though it comes in Chemical sector actually I see it as a Carbon Credit Story.A very very big CC story.Never try to look at inetrnational prices of CC.They fluctulates. No need to worry on that front.What I compare is if Guj Flouro a 2 paid up stock can quote at Rs.630/- then Navin a 10 paid up stock will quote much much more.The reason is both have almost equal CC to sell.But thing for Guj Flou is that they have already started to sell CC while Navin is still on nascent stage and hence it is available cheap.


5)I almost do not go for already splitted stocks.It is obvious that splitted company say, 2 paid up has to earn more to show higher EPS as it is splitted in 2 paid up.Same is the case of 1 paid up.Unless you are sure of the earning of that company that it will be able to match the splitted shares one can buy. Like Aftek Info where the earnig is coming in a big way. Actually I try to find stocks which have the capacity to give exponential earning(eg Navin) and can go for Splitting rather then buy which have already splitted and hence gives fabulous return.Means that I will not buy stocks that have already become a mutibaggers by already becoming XB or XS or XR.No use to buy those stocks that have become XB,XR,XS.Of course if even after it looks good after XB and XR then one can buy it.eg JMC Project.It is still a buy even after JMC has given 2 right issues.

6)Now comes the promoters Gr.I dont think one should look at it in a big manner.I do not put much weigh on Management.Who was knowing Narayan Murthy when Infosys came out with IPO in 1990's?Those who went for lookig at management lost the oppertunity to invest in bluest of blue chip.

7)Yes,P/E is important.eg, Garnet Const.It is still available at just around 8p/e.A stock which is in hot sector where the P/E is high Garnet is available under 10 p/e is a bargain.

8) Now comes the BV(Book Value).I have invested in stocks just looking at BV and come out winner.eg.Titagarh Ind which I bought at Rs 3/- and sold at Rs 30/-.I bought it just because I saw that price of Titagarh Ind was very very less then BV.I remeber when I bought Titagarh Ind the BV was over 30or 40 and price was just Rs 3/-.I just went and buy it.Though I am not a big player I bought just 1000 shares.So BV also plays an important role while buying a stocks.One more example I would like to give.Maestros Mediline.It' s BV is as high as 75 and it is available at Rs 18/-?I am holdong Maestros since long.

9)I use to buy everything I like buying.I do this because no one knows which is going to turn out as multibbagers. I have written elsewhere that buy even 100 shares.Even a small exposer is enough to give you big returns if it turns out to be a big big multibagger.

10)Hold the position.Hold it as much as you can.I bought MilkFood Ltd at Rs 40// and I remember I also recomended here at the same time and some of the members have bought also.Whether they have sold or not I donno , but I am still holding MilkFood which I purchased at Rs40/-Everybody knows that MilkFood is making newer highs and is at Rs/- 380.

11) Try to find all info where you have put money.This is very very important.These will help you in taking decision whether to hold or sell.

12)Try to find stocks on your own because this gives more conviction because conviction plays bigger part in buying stocks as well as holding it.If one have no conviction about the company you sell it cheaply.

13)Almost never buy stocks above Rs 100/- If you are buying stocks at Rs 500 how it can become a multibagger?

20 comments:

  1. Hi Rajeev,

    I have seen you giving some great stocks list until Jan 20th, 2008 (approx). Nearly for past one month there is no new stock recommendation. I beleive that this is the right time for you to come out with a good stock for investment purpose. Though you have given a multibagger list at the beginning of this year I am not able to filter out one for investing my money of 10K. I think with 10K it is reasonable to invest one or two stocks only. Please let me know that one or two stocks. Please note that my e-mail ID is vasanth.rayar@gmail.com.

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  2. Hi Rajeev,
    this is a great post you have put out here and looking forward to the "further angles" you are going to add.
    i had one query regd BV part of the post.
    for what sectors does BV doesnt matter. like i read somewhere that for IT cpy it doesnt make sense to look at BV as they dont have asset.

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  3. Thanks rajeev bhai,
    gr8 post. I got good knowledge within few minute thanks a lot for it. Now just i tried to find some stocks for whose BV is greater i found one stock rama paper whose book value is 35 and stock is at 23this Q result is also good. but promotoer holding is less than 55%. also its low equity. PE is very less.i think the stock is undervalued. how is this stock?

    Ahmed

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  4. HI Ahmed,
    Yes, you are on right track......Rama Paper fits in the multibagger criteria..........
    Good learning....
    One can buy..

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Rajeev,

    Need your inputs on Rohit ferro-tech. i purchased a very small lot @ Rs.80/-.

    the nos. in capital market showed it to be right among the most improved performers in its sector.

    regards
    venkat

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  6. Hi Venkat,
    Yes Rohit Ferro comes under a category of improved performer......One can add on declines.

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  7. Hi Rajeev Sir,
    U r doing an excellent job.No words to explain about ur work.
    People will charge millions of dollars for such useful information.But u humble man,helping small investors like me.Keep up the good work.May god give u good health and wealth for u and ur family.Keep writing such excellent posts.Thank u.
    Regards,
    Sambath Kumar.S

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  8. Hi Rajeev,

    Please give us some list of multi baggers as you used to give before. As many companies have touched new lows you could have spotted many multi baggers..

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Rajeev,
    saw this post from epiphany on Facor Alloy board, thought shall it with you since you recommended Rohit Ferro which produces the same commodity

    "All,

    Looks like I now have to keep updating FeCr prices on a daily basis. They are going ballistic on the back of a Global uptick in Commodity prices. Most, if not all, Commodity prices are hitting all-time highs.

    This US slow-down/recession is bringing out a wholly different behaviour in market participants. You’d typically see a flight to safety, which is usually the Treasuries in the US or the Gilts in the UK or the Bunds in Germany and so on. Basically, these are all Government bonds. But, what is happening now is that Bond prices aren’t moving up and all the excess liquidity that is being pumped in by the Fed, BoE and other central banks are in effect, going into commodities.

    This I believe has led to a fundamental correction in commodity prices. They have been depressed for the past 15-20 years and are now in the process of ramping up to a more equilibrium level. I can see prices still go up further, before settling down at a still substantially higher level than they are right now.

    OK, HC FeCr prices have now zoomed past $2 a Lb levels on a spot basis in the US (they were 1.80 or so about a week ago). LC FeCr prices are now past the $4 mark, up from $1.75 about 6-8 months ago. We need to track HC FeCr prices, as I don’t think any Indian Mfrs make LC FeCr.

    Indian prices are about 78,000 to 80,000 a tonne. This is up from 55,000 in November last year. Doing some math; Facor with its 72500 TPA capacity, producing 18000 Tonnes a Qtr can stand to gain 45cr in sales, just from Indian sales (assuming production is ALL sold on spot basis in India). However, they do export huge quantities, which must lead to higher sales. I think next 2 qtrs will be massive.

    Operators are accumulating right now and I’m front-running this explosion in profits and hence share price in the next 3-6 months. I have my largest position in Facor Alloys. I have also positions in Rohit. And I’m adding positions in Ferro Alloys Corp and Balasore Alloys (both of them have Chrome Ore Mines). I’m putting all my eggs in this sector and I’ll either be laughing hard soon or crying non-stop, if the alloy price goes bust. I’m sure it’ll be the former.

    Good luck all."

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  10. Dear Rajeev,

    I am back on desk after a long trip. Your message on criteria to choose multibaggers makes a great reading. Thanks. I have learnt from it.
    Guidelines are simple, straight, clean. As always your message is guileless.

    May you be blessed with plenty, peace and prosperity.

    Kalyanmitta

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dear Rajeev

    Re-reading your write-up, I see that Aftek Info figures in it as an
    example of buys.

    I was invested in AFTEK some time back and exit it to deploy money elsewhere.

    Do you reccomend a buy on AFtek Info at these levels of 50-55/-
    Please do advice.

    Regards KM

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  12. Hi KM,
    Aftek is looking good and will give graet returns but how long is the waiting period is difficult to say.
    I like this stock and use to own in KP's time.It was my biggest multibagger.I bot at Rs 87 and it wnet on to touch Rs 5000/-!Wow!

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  13. Friends,
    On Maestros Mediline:
    If someone read my post carefully of finding multibagger carefully,I have written about Maestros Mediline which was then at 17 or so...and see now it is 70....just near it's BV.....
    Maybe it has corrected but it has passed the BV price of 70!

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  14. mr rajeev...
    y dont u join the google group of kukku,ttt etc again...
    its investmentsupergrowth... if u all masters combine... u can do anything...

    ReplyDelete
  15. hi rajeev
    i think based on yr criterion.. consolidated finvest also is a screaming buy...
    managed by jindal group, is involved with future projects like powertech.. better bv of 98 as compared to cmp of 60..
    ....
    wat r ur views....

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi Specialist,
    Well,Consolidated Finvest,yes I know it is a Jindal gr company and I do track it..since long and yes, it's BV is greater then CMP...and fits in multibagger category....
    It is a holding gr company of JIndak gr , but if your knowledge says that they are directly invovled in Power Project then it is worth a look.
    Well, otheriwse ....I think JIndal Drlling is also looking good to me as it is in the space of Oil Drilling Rigs like Aban LLyod...and I am seeing a great future in OIl Rigs sector as more and more Rigs will be needed for more exploration of Oil as Oil is getting scarcier and scarcier..and the prices of crude is going up and up....
    Let Jindal Drilling come down....still....Seems to me a good and safe bet according to me....
    Rest ,I think you are smart enough to do due diligence...as I think I know you from MMB time....

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  17. Sir is there any site etc which lists companies according to low equity base, high promoter holding etc or is it that we have to go to each and every stock and find out for this is very difficult. would also like to have ur views on gremach infra which i had bought and is falling more than the market fall

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  18. sir pl come up with buying list,we are desperate thaks wish u good luck

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  19. Pradeep,
    Read regularly Capital Market Magazine and read the Score Board in it regularly...there u will find low eq company.There u will also find BV,promoters stake,etc....

    ReplyDelete
  20. Dear Rajeev,

    With the present situation in US markets (Bear Stearns, US Fed cutting discount rates by 25 bps), request you to guide whether to exit long positions and reenter at lower levels (I have 1 lot each of RCOM and GMR) or wait till expiry date for better prices?


    Regards,
    Kiran

    ReplyDelete