Friends,
Well, seems 500-600 ponits up and down is now the order of the day.
Unless subprime crisis cools down,unless selling of US funds cools down, seems we will see lots of volatility uptill then.
It is natural that when selling will come volatiltity will be at the highest.
Well,decoupling is bound to take place sooner or later.India growth can't be ignored by the world.Moreover the US economy will also do well from second half as I have written here in past.
Many fund managers are sceptic about the decoupling theory, but time will come when we will see decoupling taking place as well.
My targets of 28k-30k are still intact which I gave here in Jan08...which could be achieved within a year .
If one must have seen, the retail participation in IPO of Ril Power was big enough to see that FII's investment though was of rs 17,000 cr, was way behind the total of retail participation in Rpower issue which was as big as 1 lac cr and issue was subscribed for total value of Rs 7 lac cr.
Here one is able to see the clear demarcation happening now between local money coming into play.It is obvious that those who will not get allotment will opt for buying RPower on listing day ,but the thing to be observed here is,the money which were in savings bank a/c come out for application for RPower and now will come to secondary market and thus will increase the stake of Public participation in Indian Market context and hence I feel that the day is not far off when FII's will not be able to take the call on our market.
Someone asked me , that some Rs 145 cr cheques went in Stop Payment for RPOwer IPO due to the recent meltdown, but when an issue is oversubscribed by 86 times at over Rs 7,00,000 cr , then what makes the difference for Rs.145 cr...It is just peanuts for the entire issue.
As I have written at the Heading..Stay Invested.........India story is not to end so abruptly......we have still a long way to go.India is where China was 15 yrs back.Try to understand what I am upto.
I have written couple of weeks back that someone sold heavily the futures of Nifty in our market and as Prashant showed, it was the biggest speculator on the earth,Mr George Soros who seems have done the damage, Viz:according to what we read in dnamoney paper.Don't know whether he has unwind his short position or not....
But the same George Soros has taken stake in Ril Entertainment.
Here I am putting that article which I read in Business Standard paper:
Soros invests $100mn in Rel Entertainment
BS Reporter / New Delhi February 07, 2008
George Soros has picked up 3% stake in Reliance Entertainment for $100 million (Rs 400 crore). The stake sale puts the value of the company at around $3 billion (approximately Rs 12,000 crore).Reliance Entertainment is the flagship and umbrella entertainment company of Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group and 100% owned by Anil Ambani.Reliance Entertainment has three main lines of business - Internet and new media, film entertainment and TV broadcasting.A Reliance Entertainment spokesperson confirmed the development, and added: "We are delighted to have a sophisticated investor like George Soros as a stakeholder in the company that operates in a high growth and high potential entertainment sector offering a complete bouquet of innovative products and services to its audience."Reliance Entertainment, under its Internet and new media initiatives, has already launched a number of ventures: Zapak, a gaming portal; Big Adda, a social network and social media venture; Big Flicks, an online and offline movie rentals business; and Jump Mobile, a mobile entertainment venture.The company has signed up frontline directors like Farhan Akhtar - for an estimated Rs 300 crore for six films - Madhur Bhandarkar and Vivek Agnihotri for production. It has recently acquired controlling stake in India's largest production studio - ND Studio. It has also initiated allied ventures such as Big Music (music CDs), Home Video(video) and animation & special effects.
Now if George Soros is so bearish on India then why the hell he is BUYING in Indian Market that too unlisted co?Well, I have again tried my best to pacify the recent shocks which market is still giving to us....
I hope , this is not the time to panic... but to buy stocks which have fallen sharply....
Though I have not to write this I still would write here again:
These are all my views and I may go wrong horribly....and anything written for anyone personally are my own view and read and understand while reading somewhere else....
I again cautioned all my viewers that take your own judegment and act judiciously taking advice from more concrete person.I am not the best judge of the situation individually...and hence one should act accordingly to his behest....
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeletegreat to see you blogging and guiding us even after landing in US. i totally agree with your view, there is nothing wrong in the indian economy and that there will be ripples felt here in India bec of the US subprime issue.
The thing is, when US economy is bad shape they have fallen nearly15-16% from top, but why a growing and a sound economy like us should fall more than that.
and our corporate earnings for this quarter is growing around 16-18% whereas some specific stocks recommended by you are doing even more wonderful. our FM and Commerce Minister are very sure about 9% GDP growth, i dont see a reason to even think about bear market.
Prashanth
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteI am totally invested and havent sold a single share in this fall. I dont understand why ppl think of short term only more.
Since ur a dictonory to stock market and also track almost all stocks give an update when ever they come to attractive price. I am buying sks logistics and flex foods,nag eng etc etc.
shree.
Dear Rajeev
ReplyDeleteGood to see you back on the blog with a wisdom story and
re-confirming the strength of Indian Economy.
I am happy to find that your considered and studied understanding of the economy and market reconfirms for me what my lay-investor's mind SEES.
I see that the decoupling is a matter of time.
Its got to happen.
With best and warm wishes
KM
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteI'm a silent follower of your recos.and i believe every word you wrote.Not sellin' a single pc. of my holdin'.
Best wishes with warm regards...Rajesh
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteYour comment about George Soros is not entirely correct, Why would anyone not buy into an unlisted Ambani company, to sell on listing gains, right, looking REL Power , would you not like to pick up stake if you could.It has got nothing to do with the economy.
I also read in some earlier post that you mentioned the rupee was where it was and that in turn would mean that the FII's have not sold, but they have , the RBI sold dollars to the banks so that it could keep the rupee stable if this wasnt the case and we had a free float rupee , the rupee would have been around 60 to the dollar. if you consider 1/3 market cap.
You can only understand the churn in the economy if that were to happen, inflation , overturning of comsumption .. but the freefloat does also have its advantages.
Cheers
Hi,
ReplyDeleteThat is a wrong notion.
Actually ,RBI doesn't want to appreciate the rupee...as the export is taking a hit.FM ,PC wants to check the inflow so that rupee do not appreciate.
It is not so that RBI wants to check the rupee depreciate...but now the headache for RBI and FM is they do not wants to get rupee touch 35....
I think you are not reading the papers well..nor do understand the Economy well....though I do not claim that I am a very good reader of the economy of India as I am a science graduate but I read business papers and magazines and make out thing from that.
So, there is no way RBI will try to keep rupee stable....actually they wants not to get rupee appreciate....Noway I think the free float will make the rupee weaker....and that it can touch Rs60 with a dollar term.
And BTW, Rupee Free Float will also become a reality in next 18 months time....Take my words...and you will see then that Rupee will appreciate....and not depreciate as you are thinking...to 60....
Hey Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteI think you have misunderstood what I said. I am saying that had the RBI not bought the rupee and sold the dollar to the banks and which then sold to the FII's who have pulled a chunk of it outside the country.. (had the RBI not done this) the rupee would have hit 60 to the dollar by now.
I am just quoting an earlier post where you said that the FII's have not pulled out of Equity markets here...
The only question of real importance to anyone here is when will they return .. immediately after the budget or slowly creep back in by inch (our eco being in fine fettle.)
But like a standard disclaimer equity markets cannot really be predicted.
Belive me Rajeev I have also gained from your stock research, more than I have lost.
I am just tryin to give you my point of view, as you have a right to state yours.
Please dont take it personally.
Cheers
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI would have loved to know your real name...rather then seeing a post by...anonymous....
Well, I am now above all these...I don't take anything personally....Rest assured...
You are most welcome...here...to write whatever you want....
Hi Anonymous,
ReplyDeletei dont agree with your views saying
anybody will buy into unlisted ambani cpy and make listing gains. if george soros didnt find that the cpy he is buying into will be able to make money, he wouldnt have bought into it. for sector which rel ent is in, you need to have consumer confidence regd the economy high up otherwise cpy wont fly (look whats happening to US, all people need to do right now is start spending some more to jump start the economy but confidence isnt there bec of subprime issue. any cpy trying to list there now would have lots of trouble getting listing gains unless there is steep discount in the IPO price). i am pretty sure George Soros didnt enter into this cpy just to make listing gains considering his past track record. but still great to have a conflicting view point.
Also i dont believe PM/FM will try to defend rupee at levels of 39 when they went beating their drums on news channel saying they are not comfortable with the current price of rupee. i am sure they will take it with both hands if rupee appreciates to 42 levels with some capital outflow as it will help the exports sector, capital deficit plus fight against inflation. current 4 billion dollars outflow in this year is nothing for rupee (meaning it wont cause rupee to goto 60 levels. you are talking about 50% appreciation that is not possible and PM/FM will surely defend it at 48-50 levels) when compared to 17 billion $ inflow last year which caused rupee to go from 46 to 39.
Again these are my views.
-Prashanth
Hey Guys,
ReplyDeleteI guess we are all on the same page now as far as the ruppee is concerned.
It is a very common thing to take stake in a company for listing gains, which doesnt mean liquidation gains at IPO.Take an instance of Suzlon, which CITI took public,slowly reduced stake.
This is my point, which has really nothing to do with which way the economy will move.
What I am trying to say is George Soros cannot be tied to taking descisions on the basis you are pointing out. Take a long look at his investment history , you will find a lot of hiccups there.
That all said, I have full faith
in the Indian Economy and more so its people.
As far as names are concerned you went along with Nakul for a long time so let me Anonymous for a while or if it really does make a differnce you can call me 'Nik'.
I think that with the Internet identities are of little consequence.Its thoughts that matter.
-Nik
Hi Nik,
ReplyDeleteWriting name anunymous is lenghty and NIK is ok....who ever you are...
But I think my blog is not such that one hass to hide his idendity...do you think so?
Well, I second with the opinion of Prashant that only if George Soros is convinced will he take stake....
You gave example of CITI gr taking stake in Suzlon...and selling at listing...
But Citi must be confident of listing gains....Correct?
Why don't we read George Soros taking stake in other cos?
After a very long time George Soros has taken a stake in Ril Entertainment stock....why we do not hear GS taking stake in all unlisted co?
Nik, it is not that esay as you say to have a stake of rs 300cr...Rs 300 cr is no small an amy and GS will make it sure that the fundas of that co will give him return on listing or if not on listing maybe within a year...
So, as you say it is not easy to have a stake with an unlisted co and make gains on listing, perticularly when the chips are down in the market, in India and world wide too....
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your kind reply.But comparing Entertainment
to the economy or GS making that investment on the basis of the economy.Take for instance Cricket, you are entertained and passionate about it and will probably invest in its future here, irrespective of how the economy is doing.
All am I trying to say here again that such things cannot be tied together to take decisions of investments in the general market.
Also I was looking at the posts here by you, prashant and me.
We have 2 views on the dollar/rupee.
1. Prashant that the Govt would happy if the dollar were to appreciate.
2. Me & possibly you as well
the Govt & RBI want a stable rupee
not a fluctuating or depreciating rupee, and hence I feel that the RBI/GOVT will go all out
to curb any excesses on either end.
I think the GOVT is quite happy with where the rupee is, as Oil and imports(CG) badly needed at this hour for Infrastructure growth, are cheaper
I think these are worthy Ideas to consider.
-Nik
Ofcourse Nik,I agree with you.
ReplyDeleteHi Rajeev,
ReplyDeleteBeing a regular reader of your blog, I do always expect your write ups here atleast on some big movement days as today when Reliance power got listed and screaming. I am used to see ur writings as confidence booster.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDear Vasanth,
ReplyDeleteI understand your concerns.
But I am waiting for more clues to write here on RPL listing and our market getting this drubbing.
I will write about both on appropriate time....
I wants to see how market pans out today(Tues)and then in couple of days as well....Heard some payment crisis has arisen in grey market due to a discount listing of RPL issue....
Hi Rajeev,
ReplyDeletelooking at open interest reduction, put-call ratio and bearishness it seems very much similar to June 2006 where you gave the call saying most of poison is out and this is a good time to buy.
but read somewhere the loss from greay market is around 2000 crores from RPower which is almost equal to the amount which FII pulled out in Jan. Do you think we need to treat every uptrend with circumspect unless we get clarity on what that 2k crore loss can cause to the market.
i am seeing calls for 14700 to 12000 on Sensex, whats your take on these calls.
-Prashanth