Friends,
Seems the budget rally has started.
This can be seen while looking at Dow which tanked by 175 points on Ben's view that slow down is seen,but Indian market ignored that news.........
For the time being , untill budget is presented, the rally will continue , taking little clue of world market..But from these one can say that whenever Indian Market wants to decouple it from world market, it can do......
And that is the bottom line......
So there is no use in thinking in that line whether we have decoupled or NOT!
I have wrote last time, sub 10k level aired by Shankar Sharma is not possible....I remember he also spoke same when market tanked from 12670 to 8800, that 7000 is possible and even 5000 is possible.......but that never came....
Friends, one should have his own thinking on market...like when SS says that market can go to 10k-11k level, one must see what can happen then if that happens?
In this massacre, all stocks were down by 50-70% from the high..now one should think what can happen if market goes to 11k?WE gets bulest of Bluechip, like say, L&T, ABB, Ril Ind,Tisco,Telco,Areva etc at 20% from the high.....can that happen?That is the question one should ask oneself....and if the answer is NO then he should not PANIC.............
I again reiterate that, whenever market tanks like it did ,this time, never PANIC......
If you can't SELL,no problem,sit quite....stop looking at prices...at portfolios...this will make you take wrong decision.....When one sees his portfolio eroding, one tends to take some insane decision....So the best thing is just stop looking at CNBC, NDTV Profit,Business papers, especially ET, BS, FE..etc.......just skip reading them...just read it for companies news...
Well, one would say, that if he do not read or see paper and channels then he may miss selling and will end in more loss....but where is the question of LOSS comes when market is tanking at 2000 points per day.....
One is feared of any massacre only if he has invested from borrowed money or taken a loan agianst F.D or shares......I advice my readers that never do any of the both....
Only invest those money which you will not need for 2-3 yrs atleast....
Alawys invest in market with money you would have put in NSC or KVP for 6 yrs....Just think that these money are as good as in NSC or KVP.....
Stock market has always given great returns in Long Run....Remember this....One has to SIT on the stocks....and hence one has to invest in fundamentally good stocks...
Remember, I will never give a speculative call.....never .....I still say that any stocks I have discussed here are buy at this time....Just BUY and forget for a year or two....
Never think for ST....never......
Coming back to market,lots of FII's buying is seen in F&O as well......someone must have shortsold and has to come back to cut that position...maybe this month, maybe next month....if it gets carried forward..maybe after that month...but he has to come to cut short.....
We have to just see what happens then.....
Well, friends , I am still sure of my targets of 28k-30k.......by Dec 08......
It is still a long way to go...we have even not passed 2 months.....
Thanks Rajeevbhai.....I have been really lucky at following the grand rule of focusing on businesses (instead of stocks), looking at the big picture, buying value, holding firm without a panic emotion setting in, and just waiting for a turnaround.
ReplyDeleteI feel that we might have to take one more shot downward to prove to the bears that we are forming a 'higher low', and that is when they WILL become believers.
There is a lot of Futures Contracts being purchased by FIIs, the short positions are still intact, and this combo becomes a powerful 'guarantee' of the rally to come.
So, we are not setting up for 8xxx, 9xxx, 10xxx, 13xxx or 14xxx as some predictors feel/comment/suggest/scare.
Thanks for all of you views, guidance and suggestions.
KKP
Dear Rajeev
ReplyDeleteI appreciate your optimism - the ground reality is the small investors have been deeply wounded - crash+RPower together have made them lose more than 50% of their investments. For the newcomers (i wrote about the new breed in phoenix) the shock is too much.
This group will take at least 4-5 months to regain confidence. Till then the market will sway to the tunes of FII / FI moves.