Saturday, February 20, 2010

Is rate hike that much bad?

I don't know why analyst and pundits are so wary of rate hike.
First we need to understand why there can be a rate hike?Rate hike takes place for different reason.I am no pundit in economics and hence my knowledge is limited on that front but in a simple laymen term if I think then I can say that rate hike takes places when government anywhere around the world wants to check the inflow of capital in system.
There are many reason why capital Inflow check is made.The reasons can be taming the Inflation,taming the easy money getting in the system and thereby checking the price rise in Realty sector etc.
Now there can be different kind of rate hike.Say like when we saw the economics crisis that took place, rate were decreased abysmally to infuse money in the system.
And there comes that catch.The rate hike we are hearing is of that rate that were decreased to bring back the economy world wide back on road.
Now if USA increase rate what does that mean?It says that Ben Bernanke is seeing positive in US economy and that is why he is thinking to increase the what this shows.....what is good and what is bad?Rate hike is bad or economy becoming good is bad?
There can be a reaction for ST when that happens but overall the rate hike says that economy is doing good.If China is increasing the rate it is doing to cool off the growth and trying to put check on any bubble that is created.Now what is good,that China is trying to keep measures on economy which is overshooting and let its economy turns into a bubble or keep it cool or letting it burst?Which situation investor would like to have?Why there is so much of talk on rate hike?Why there is only negative talk of rate hike?Why analyst are not seeing what is coming up?
The question that is important is how much rate hike takes place?The timing of rate hike is what matters the most.Whether it is gradual or it is one big hike?
Sooner or later the government has to hike it , because easy money cannot be there for asking which incase makes more distruction then good.
Now the case in study is India.And the topic is roll back of fiscal stimulous.Now if Fin Min wants to roll back some of the fiscal stimulous what is wrong.When analyst  were talking of 5% growth in 2008 for 2009  , India pushed some stimulous pacakage so that growth do not get hindered.The fiscal stimulous was neccsary step at that point of time because the money flow stopped coming from overseas and actually FII 's were taking out money and we saw the result of that.We came down from 21k to 8k.
As there was quizzing of supply of money , the money that corporate India was able to get easily through PE investment , QIP, Preferential Allotment,IPO's were left high and dry.So to curtail any such debacle GOI decided to go on with a fiscal stimulous measurement.And the result is in front of us.We didn't go to 5% GDP, instead we did well by going to over 7% GDP to 7.5% GDP.This has been averted due to the stimulous pacakage that GOI went with.Now if FIN MIN sees that it is time to roll back some of the stimulous back what is wrong ,why there is so much of a CRY for that.If GOI is thinking like that then that is a good news as our economy is coming back to normal.
If USA think of raising the int rate as  they feel that their economy is doing well, then why shouldn't we?When there was a danger of China's growth coming to 7 or 8 % and China did extremly well in 2009 and they are taking mearsure to curb down the hottingup of their economy then why should India not?
I don't know what analyst and pundits have in mind when they cry for the stimulous rolling back.What danger they see in it.If Corporate India is apprehensive then that is also not good.But I think Corporate knows it very well that the stimulous pacakage has to go one day.They have done good in 2009 with many IPOs coming, many QIP's being done.
I see not fault in such steps taken from GOI and do not believe in the theory that it will hinder the growth.Taking back stimulous pacakage step by step will put our economy back to normal and when I say normal it means the state where we were in 2007!I hope one understand my point.
That hass to happen one day.We have to be back to normal , days before 2007.
The thing to remember here is if Int rates is hiked or stimulous pacakage is rolled back slowly we are not doing it wrongly.We are just coming back to NORMAL.The days we were in 2007.The pre 2008 ERA.Now what if we are back to 2007 ERA? Is anything wrong in it.In the same era we went from 3000 to 21,000!
I am not an expert but I can understand certian things very easily and hence I have written it here for my readers not to get scared much after reading the Pundits,analyst and experts of market domestically and world over......
We have seen analyst saying Stayam is gone and will become ZERO and same analyst will come one day back and will say that he now sees that Satyam is a great play.Now the thing to be taken in account is what impact that creates in investors community is ignored.This happened just a year ago.The recomendation came in 2008 Mar that satyam will become ZERO.
I sometimes get mails and opnions that why we should bother about what analyst speaks and why we should discuss whether he is right or wrong but those who says so may be not bothered about it as they maybe over and above such emotions but lay investor do think and take decision on that.Freedom of speech is there in demiocratic country but then it should be such that it doesn't hurts someone.
I read a week back when the Shivsena and SRK debacle took place and one of the lawyer came out with a view that whether SRK violated any law of outspoking or being out of normal view.....and the stand was taken that he was not.
So everyone has the right to think whatever he feel but not the right to speak whatever he thinks.Democracy do  not give that right to do things where people get disturb and that leads to instigation of others and some atrocity evolves out from it.


  1. hi ,rajeev, thanks for view on aries agro, please tell about gremach infra future,with some detail , my email, if anybody know the real story of gremach infra , please tell

  2. United bank IPO good Article by Priya chandran from MMB

    There is no discussion required regarding the soundness of this bank which is presently owned 100% by Government of India. Its capital restructuring plan last year reduced its paid-up capital from Rs. 1,532 crore to Rs 266 crore. The excess capital of Rs 1,266 crore was added to the reserves of the bank causing its Book Value to swell to about Rs.100 per share. Since the Government of India is only selling its stake, there is no dilution of equity capital that could have adversely affected the EPS.

    The guess regarding the pricing of the IPO has been coming down continuously since last year – from Rs.110 in April 2009 to Rs.70-Rs.75 in December 2009. I am happy to find that the issue is finally priced ONLY at Rs.60-Rs.66 leaving much money on the table for investors.

    The bank`s net profit for first half of FY 2009-10 was Rs.154 crore as against Rs.184 crore for whole FY 2008-09. The bank should be able to post a full year EPS of Rs.15.

    At the issue price of Rs.60-Rs.66, the issue is price close to only 0.7 times Book Value. The fact that the IPO has been graded as CARE IPO grade 4 and ICRA IPO grade 3 confirms the soundness of the bank.

    I feel Rs.90 is a conservative price that United Bank should be quoting post listing after IPO.

    The only negative I can imagine for applying to the IPO is that the issue is likely to be HEAVILY OVERSUBSCRIBED across all investor categories. So, allotment is not likely to be high.

    In any case, this is not an IPO to be missed.

  3. Turbulent times need turbulent strategies. Go out and look at stocks which have fallen more than they deserved to. You will find many Heroes fallen by.. Mitz

    I feel Sree Infra will be definitely fit in to the above category.

  4. Hi Rajeev,

    I am new to your blog site. Also, I am an amateur investor. I have recently done my first investment by buying 100 shares of NHPC @ 32.25

    What are your views on NHPC?


  5. Hi,

    Stock market India is volatile and all those who speculate in market are loosing everyday. Please remember stock market is not for speculation purpose. If one feel investing in stock market is gamble then its better to think again.

    One should always note that if they want to invest money they should do proper research be it fundamental research or technical research. Just think how come you can invest
    your money without any convincing reason for the same?

    Indian stock market is one of the most happening and emerging market. Major Indian stock exchanges are BSE and NSE and both are of world class standards.

    So grab good stocks and invest that’s the bottom line.

    We hope to see you in major profits.


  6. Sumit,
    NHPC is looking good for LT....