Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Looks like market has taken support of 18500.
The results of Infy was not good as per the market and market welcomed the TCS results and went up by 200 points.
Isn't that surprising that the same stock which was battered the previous day, Infy due to bad results, is up by rs 50, the next day?
Remember one thing.Players wants to do what they wants.They will show some reason to break the market while hammering same stock and the take it up again next day buying same stocks.
The analyst and experts that comes in TV Channels are good for nothing.
Shaifali was writing that she has not made any money in 2008 nor in this bull run.I read her comments but as it went in spam fiolder I mistakenly deleted itI am writing what I was able to remember.
I would like to write to all readers and Shaifali as well, don't play for ST.I have been saying this time and again.Market is not for ST.
We have seen that Masters like Warren Buffet and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala were not sellers in 2008.
Just learn from that.
Buy stocks which have fundamentals.The stocks which I use to discuss which are below Rs50 are still upcoming stories.That story, growth, will materialize or not only future can tell.
We have to keep our fingures crossed.But these stocks which I discuss below 50 are at very nascent stage of growth and that may happen or may not happen.Don;'t expect miracle in those shares.SNL Bearing, Sujana Towers, Spanco are excpetional case.
Soem stocks are still discounted low and market still can take longer time to recognize the value and it may even happen that before the growth stats coming the whole story can get aborted due to unforeseen circumstances.
Moreover, some people are not lucky enough to earn from stock market.I have my own experinace.I give same stock call to 3-4 friends.All buy them but only couple of them earns from it.
It all depends on luck......some are very lucky and some are not lucky.When luck works nothing works like it.There is no reason.Jiska naseb chalne lagta hai uska koi reason nahi milta.
One can fight with an individual but we can't fight whose luck is powerful.Jisko naseb ka sath mila hota hai uske sath hum nahi compete kar sakte.......
I am revealing a secret to you all.I have always said, I am a very small investor like all of you.I am not big and that is the reason why that happened.
See the anamoly.I wanted to buy some other stocks and Sujana Towers was not moving.I wanted to buy those stocks but have no money to buy them.So I have to sell something to buy those stocks.
As there was no such big annoucement coming from Sujana Towers , I sold Sujana Towers , to buy other stock and immidiately Sujana Towers started running in about a month and from 52 it went on to touch 220.
I was knowing that Sujana Towers is a excellent Co but as I wanted to buy other stock and as I have no money to buy , I sold Sujana Towers.That mistake was a forced mistake for the lack of money.There was no choice for me......
Now what is that?That is LUCK.I was not destined to make money in Sujana Towers even though it was my call.Can anyone imagine how much I would have felt bad when I saw Sujana Towers  making newer highs in Oct and Nov last year?Even after so many years in market still LUCK is eluding me......I know everthing and still not able to earn what I should be......
But what can I do?I was helpless.Same happened with Spanco Ltd ....repeat of Sujana Towers.......there are many stories like that.....kya kya bataun.....
Shaifali,it is not so that you and your relatives or friends passes through such things.....we are all in same boat.
Don't get disheartened.I lost my fortune twice in market .Came to ZERO twice and made even Loss .Learn from the mistake.I came back again and this time in 2008, the portfolio became 20% but not ZERO .......
I gave Stride Arocolab here at 238....many must have bought but how many are still holding it?


  1. Dear Rajeev,

    Though it consoles many of us to know that even knowledgeable people like you have to undergo the effect of down-trend in the market, it is very painful to know that you have got shattered two times and had to recoup and rebuild again.

    Though it would be asking for too much , I make bold to request you to share your lessons learnt from such disasters and any protective strategy (you have already given us ideas like selling half qty if price doubles , profit booking at high valuations , spreading the portfolio with more multibagger ideas,etc ). Your guidance can mitigate our lack of luck .

    One such idea I get after reading your fate on Sujana and spanco is that may be we should sell only a portion of a multibagger idea incase we want money . Once we identify and invest in a winning idea never sell it completely unless the story fails. In that way , atleast partially we can participate in an unexpected rally. Just my two cents.
    With High Regards

  2. rajeev,
    You said that ashish dhawan's crystcapital bought kpit and thats very positive.

    But ashish dhawan himself bought sunil hitech last year and sunil hitech making lows.

    Is it GREAT CONTRANIAN BET?? I have heard lot of negative about it but learning how much importance should be given to such news as RJ himself bought srei, orchid which were having negative new in mkt?????

  3. rajeev,
    1) Your recommedation of "ABC India" : Had u written any article of ABC India? I would love know your views on ABC India.What makes u so bullish apart from Mashu Kela's investment.
    Looking at past growth I am not much impressed. Are there any investment they have made OR is there some sign of turnaround OR something else that impressed u.

    2)Your recommendation of jenburkt pharmaceuticals : This looks pretty conservative with very nice dividend payout ratio. Whats makes it growth. Will be be great compunder as seen from financial statments OR will it be great multibagger which is not seen in financial stmts but seen somewhere else

  4. HI Rajeev

    Would you believe it.. same happened to me in Sujana towers.. I knew it was a good company but sold it bcoz it didnt move for months together from 50 odd.. I thought i can always buy back sometime later. I had a good quantity.Fortunately i held on to spanco bought @ 69 and Surana bought @ 40 which i kept buying b/w 40-60.

    Anyways thanks for these reco.. I know you for 6 years now and understand your thoughts and investment psychology.. Many people are new and with time they will learn and appreciate your hard work.
    In my previous post I asked you about MARG.. I couldnt buy when it was 50 odd.. didnt have money then but bought much later around 180.. I thought it still has good prospects..As a patient investor I will keep holding it..


  5. ramesh,
    Let me first tell you this.Conviction is very very important in market.
    There are many reasons why a stock will go down.Negative news,Negative earnings,stagnant growth, downtrend in product......but one should be always confident that the Co can grow lateron.
    If you are not confident then best thing is to sell that stock and buy something else.
    Investing in stock is making prediction or anticipation of growth and it is always hard to come true 100%.As time passes the growth unfolds and it still keeps on going up.
    When RJ bought Titan at Rs 70, he never thought it will go to Rs 3300....and will make a killing...and he is still holding...says he will sell his stake in Titan at $1bn , means at Rs 10,000.....
    So all investor in stock market invest in a story.Then whether it become real or not is need to be seen......
    ramesh, remember one thing......if you lose the conviction in any stock, sell it immidiately....

  6. ramesh,
    hard to explain ABC India and Jenburkt Pharma call.I have not enough time.It takes lots of time to explian each and every finer print.
    I will only say here that if you are reading me properly and what I use to see when I recomend a stock, you will find out why I recomended ABC and Jenburkt Phrama.......

  7. Rajeev,
    any views on adinath exim resources with just ****6 cr**** mkt cap.
    Only positive i have seen(and hence asking for ur recommedation) is in sept2010-quarter RJ bought 6% stake in this VERY SMALL NBFC company.

  8. ramesh,
    Looks like you still lacks in diggin.When u see RJ has taken stake what you do?What parametres you go through to find why he has invested?Write me what you look at......
    ramesh,see this is like teaching someone.I can't do it always.......I have written what I do when I zero on perticular stock.
    U need to read me religiously and seriously....I repeat, read each and every word that I write.I write no nonsense....each and every word and sentence has meaning.....
    Read any of post twice/thrice or as many times untill u understadn what I am saying....
    Don't read casually.....and then forget....

  9. Hi Rajeev,

    Recently i have purchased one stock sree rayalaseema hi strength hypo...can i hold for 1 year period????

  10. kumra, Didn't you asked me same question few weeks back?
    It is a hold for 2-3 yrs....

  11. Hi Rajeev,

    Did u have a look at the following compact disc announcement in bse website?

    Compact Disc India Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on January 28, 2011, inter alia, to consider the following matters:

    1. To consider and approve unaudited financial results of the Company for the quarter ended December 31, 2010.

    2. To consider and approve the delisting of the securities of the Company from Bombay Stock Exchange and other stock exchanges where the securities of the company are listed.

    3. To consider and convene the Extra Ordinary General Meeting of the members of the Company.

    I don't understand what is the reason for considering delisting (point 2). Could you please throw some light on that? I couldn't figure out even a single good reason.

  12. Vasanth,
    Well if they wants to delist the sec from bse exchanges then there should come an open offer.They can't delist a co without making an open offer to the public.
    The reason for delisting I am seeing is because Compact Disc is not given a proper discounting by market and hence the management think that let us delist CD at this price which is going at garbage price....1 p/e is something unusual...for a Co having an eps of 50....
    So if an entire Co they can delist at 36 cr which is the Mcap and Co earns 50 cr with sales of 228 cr last year,that chance the management will never get in a life time to own the entire stake for just 36 cr where as the NP is 50cr.....

  13. i m most unluky than rajeev. i make so many blunder in mkt in my 19 year investment one beleive but it is fact.Due to lack of money or whenever my any scrip not perform i sell them and buy new one.Result i buy donkey after sell derby horse.some time my scrip up 100% from my buy price i jump like kangaaroo and book profit. after my sell scrip up more than thousand time from my sale price in 1 year or may be 3 year.
    some example of my blunder
    i hold 25000 hind zinc @ 9 and sell at 22 and wait for once again reenter at 10 but scrp come down near 13 and than go 1200.
    i hold 2000 hitech drilling which i sell near 85 level when aban offshore buy and annonce merge with his co and alloted every 2 share of abon off share against 1 share of hitech drilling.i have no faith on abon promoter and sell hi tech in open mkt at 85.after some year abon go near 11000 per share.
    i sell hero honda share, bfl software all 10 paidup share at throwaway price in 1995,
    i fully beleive with Rajiv desai that luck is king in our life.


    pretty encouraging

  15. I hear lots of stories of people making 100-1000 times money in many companies. In short 1990-2007 were glorious days.

    Is Indian mkt matured now OR would we still get such opportunities in next decade where making 100-1000 times money in todays ****MANY**** small cap will have probability same as 1990-2007 period ?

  16. ramesh,
    Oppertunity keeps coming up it 1990 or 2010 or 2011 or 2020......