Monday, January 17, 2011

Market.......ALWAYS FAVOUR BEARS?...YES.....

I have always written that invest with your own money.Don't borrow it.Don't do day trading.
Don't play in F&O.Don't play for ST.
One needs to always remember that without money no BULL MARKET  can take place.Harshad Mehta brought money through bank receipt ,Ketan Parekh did the same things , used money of Madhav Pura it is obvious that without money pouring in no bull market can take place.
The bull run from 2800 to 21000 from 2003 to 2008 was also the results of huge FII investment coming in.
One should always remember that market always favour BEARS.It is very easy to understand.Is it not?It is.....let me explain......
From 8k to 21k in maybe around 2005 to 2008 , means market took 3 good yrs to come up from 8k to 21k, but in just less then one year from Jan 2008 to Oct /nov 2008 market went down from 21k to 8k......
So within 9 months market shed all gains made in 3 yrs.
When market moves up or stock moves up , its goes up gradually but when it tanks it fell from a cliffhanger.There is no downside.It keeps on going down and down and there is no bottom.
Why that happens?Why there is no bottom?The reason is when prices goes down everyone wants to sell and when everyone wants to sell , it is hard to find buyers and when there are no buyers or less buyers then the stock will keep going down and down.
So when market tanks ,everyone will try to come and sell and hence the selling pressure will become more and more and that HEPLS BEARS  in BIG BIG way.That is what these BEARS wants.Just a small dent in confidence of investors and all and sundry will come out to sell as no one wants to lose the profit or come in loss or more loss, and hence the selling is bound to come.So just a little selling will bring down the prices in big way.
Just a couple of thousands of crores of rupees selling from FII and market tanked by over 2k points and the prices are way down from high.
In  such type of market one needs to buy always in SIP manner because we never know what is the bottom.It is like catching a falling knife.
Stock goes up gradually barring some instances like Spanco Ltd , Sujana Towers , SNL Bearing ,Stride Aroclab etc...and the surprising fact here is all stocks start from the alphabet "S"..............
These stocks are way above from the price I recomended here first.
But we can see from the above that market always favours BEARS because when market tanks everyone wants to SELL and that becomes and advantage for BEARS and that is why I wrote in the heading that Market always favours BEARS.........
See, market is not just investing.One need to understand it.How it works.When what happens, how it happens.Ofcourse it is not easy task as veterans like Ramesh Damani went totally wrong in predicting the course of the market in 2008 and 2009.
So don't start believing yourself an expert.Market has never obliged anyone.Making a correct call for couple of stocks don't makes you expert.
Well, 18500 was a good resistance level in past for market to break and go up so I feel that 18500 should be a good support level......and shouldn't break that support of 18500 easily............
let us see what is left for us in store........


  1. Mr Desai,

    This time you are very late to recognize that market is going down it is from diwali that market is going down. As we have seen the killing by FII in 2008 . They are net seller in 2008 all the year , they literally make mutual fund industry down to death. As of now the time is near for financial year ending in india is close so their is chances of some investment happend for tax saving and these FII are wating for that time. As they are accumulating in F&O. Their is also some sector scenario is changing.

  2. Shaifali,
    I donno why you and other people wants to prove me wrong and show the world that Rajeev went wrong.
    Looks like you people gets big satisfaction in trying to do that and I still say, if you feel u r an expert start your own blog.
    Why I am writing this to you Shaifali?Because you are picking up the wrong cause to belittle me.
    I at my blog never never has predicted the market course on ST basis.Have you ever seen me predicting market course for 1 or 2 months?
    Whenever market went down I have always written that ups and down are part and parcel of stock market.
    Shaifali , on what basis you got the itch to write that Mr.Desai was late to recognioze the market?
    I know people are always on prowl to find faults of me but I am what I either hate me or love me.....
    Sometimes, people(not reader...) just visit my blog to find fault.I know this thing.
    They feel proud and expert to find any fault of mine.....
    I still urge those people that just start a blog and write there every 2-3 days and try to see how many days you can do it.....!
    I still stick with my view that Shaifali, you are wrong here.I never never had predicted the market course for ST, so there is no question of going wrong for me....This is not for the first time that market has gone down for over 2k points from its journey from 8000 to 21000 from Apr 2009 to Sep 2010.......

  3. Friends,
    I wish someone shows me my genuine mistake and I accept it.
    That has happened in past and I had accepted it but trying to show me wrong where I am not is not the correct way of doing it.......

  4. Dear rajeevji,i accept your views, in investor point of view.

  5. Hello Shefali, may I please have a web link of your blog, I would love to visit and see your updates and views on the market from investor's and investment perspective. Please give all the boarders a chance to visit your blog.

    warm regards

  6. Hi Shaifali,
    Your latest comment went in spam and I mistakenly deleted it.Can you write it again.
    I would like to give a reply on it....